An Orioles-Eye View of the Standings | The Warehouse Pod | Baltimore Orioles Podcast | Ep. 177

welcome back to the warehouse podcast my name is Jesse as usual before I get into the episode here uh going to read this ad uh bet online is the world's most trusted betting platform and your number one source for everything football from the preseason NFL to college kicking off bet online has every stat every matchup and even live odds and spreads while the games are being played thank you know your stuff get in on our winter take all $300,000 NFL Survivor pool for the upcoming season when the game's over head on over to uh our online casino get in on a game of blackjack or poker or unwind with one of our over 150 slot games head to the website today and use promo code believe to get in on the action bet online the game starts here I will say uh before I really start this episode one of my uh appreciations from Tyler's last episode was that he had the uh the ad the ad read up on the screen while he was doing the ad so I really appreciated that um and yeah we are a baseball and uh you know MLB Orioles podcast explicitly uh so that's really the only only football we'll be getting into is is from that ad readed um yeah uh so anyway uh basically uh I thought I would get on here um the Orioles are approaching the final quarter of the season so I thought I would get on here um and sort of have uh open up a little bit of a discussion I guess a discussion between me and myself uh really but uh just start uh talking here a little bit about uh the last quarter of the season and taking sort of a look at the standings where we're at uh where uh sort of uh the Orioles need to go and sort of what the Outlook is for the remainder of the season um I think most people know that we're in a a division race at this point with the New York Yankees um so yeah just sort of getting into like in an assessment uh of all of that so uh if you look at like sort of uh the final quarter of the season the remaining schedule uh if we're looking St ly at the Orioles and the Yankees moving forward um the Orioles have a favorable schedule um they have uh according to like record uh the 22nd okay I'm not going to say this right so out of the 30 major league baseball teams in terms of favorable schedule um well no in in terms of unfavorable schedule the Orioles are 22nd on that list so that is a pretty good place to be um the Orioles have a relatively weaker schedule um than uh most of the league at this point um so the winning percentage of the teams that we will face moving forward uh is currently 492 and the Orioles have 43 games left in the entire season um so the Orioles right now at the time of recording the Orioles are 70 and 49 the Orioles were the first team this season to hit 70 wins uh we did that on Saturday the Yankees followed it up the next day um and hit 70 wins on Sunday uh incidentally we lost that game uh but the Orioles had an off game on Mon an off day on Monday and the Yankees played and they lost So currently the Orioles are half a game up in the division against the New York Yankees um I should also note that the Dodgers now have 70 wins as well they have an identical record to us at 70 and 49 and uh the the Orioles and the Dodgers uh are the best two teams uh well actually with the Guardians as well uh Are all uh at the top of Major League Baseball with a 70 and 49 record which amounts to a 588 winning percentage so um yeah so the Orioles in terms of like the remaining strength of the schedule uh the Orioles uh opponents have a 492 winning percentage so that's a bit below uh 500 so it's overall uh you know a favorable schedule the thing is though that if you look at the Yankees uh the Yankees have a 483 uh the Yankee opponents for the rest of the season have a 483 uh winning percentage uh and the Yankees have the 26 weakest schedule that's actually how I should have said it starting off so the Orioles have faced the 22nd their remaining schedule is the 22nd weakest for the Orioles and the Yankees is the 26th weakest schedule out of the 30 major league teams I know there's probably a better way out there to say all of that um but basically to say that both the Orioles and the Yankees have a favorable schedule moving forward but the Orioles have it a little tougher than the Yankees do um going forward so uh and if you just sort of look at you know some of the some of the teams uh the Orioles play uh the really tough team uh I think uh it uh is pretty obvious is the Dodgers are still looming on the Oriol schedule um but despite that the Orioles do have weak teams uh as well to play uh we're going to start off a two game series with the Nationals we play the Rockies for three the white socks for three and the Tigers for six um so and if you look at uh the Yankees uh schedule um they play some of those teams as well they just started off playing the white socks and they got crushed 10 to two today uh well or technically I'm recording this after midnight but they got crushed 10 to two on Monday I'm recording this after midnight Monday night uh really Tuesday Morning um but uh so yeah so the so yeah all that to say basically the Yankees have a more favorite schedule than the Orioles um but uh just slightly and uh you know the strength of the schedule is probably not going to be the determining Factor now as far as the Orioles and Yankee uh Yankees matchups uh they play each other one time uh I'm sorry well they play each other for one more series uh they play three games a three- game set in the Bronx uh so I'm I'm tempted to try to go to that uh especially cuz it's so close by to where I live um but basically yeah the Orioles uh go to the Bronx for three games it's at the very very end of the schedule basically it's like within the last week or so week and a half or so of the regular baseball season so probably at that time a lot might be coming down to that series now if it's not a sweep uh one way or the other uh it might sort of when we get to that point in time it might be a situation where uh in order you know one of the two teams has a couple games cushion uh on the other and one of the teams would really need to sweep in order to uh sort of take full advantage and in order to really uh change the tide of the or change the trajectory of how the division race is going so that might be a situation but if it's not a sweep and it's a two to one series either way um of course it could that series could be the difference I mean the Orioles and Yankees have played uh you know over a 100 games a season and we separated by half a game uh and we were tied if you look uh after Sunday right so um things are really really close uh so that series could just by itself determine um who ends up getting the first seed and who ends up being a wild card team um but um yeah it's sort of complicated and uh we'll we'll have to see uh what ends up um you know there's going to be a lot that happens leading up to that point um so later on down the line we'll see exactly how important that series is um I think it will be important just from a uh if nothing else if it doesn't matter for the division uh standings uh it will matter I think for this is going to be a series that gets played potentially right before the Orioles meet the Yankees in the playoffs so uh that how those three games go will be fresh in the memories uh when the two teams M meet for the playoffs so I think it's consequential from that perspective um so now there is a big question at this point I mean it is a little bit uh of a question how much should teams value uh winning the division now I'm not suggesting that anybody should be tanking the division uh because ultimately uh if you don't if you win the division it is one less series uh that you have to win in order to win the World Series so from that perspective um there is like a solid solid Advantage uh to having that that buy in the first round and intuitively seems like it would be really helpful because you just finish a 162 Game season and uh you know having a few off days and resting up and being able to set your starting rotation exactly how you want it would seem favorable now the the Counterpoint to that is that if we look at the 2023 MLB playoffs um both so three out of the four teams that won the division uh unfor or that had a Buy in the first round I should clarify three out of the four teams uh that uh well they all technically they all won the division 2 um but you can win the division and still be playing in the wild guard round um but uh three out of the four teams that had a Buy in that first round went out immediately uh in that first round so the Orioles lost to the Rangers we all know about that we don't have to relive it uh the Houston Astros uh were the only team uh that did advance past that first round and they beat the twins um so they were the ones who did have a buy and did get through uh probably my guess is a lot of that has to do with playoff experience all of those guys on that team uh it feels like uh it's not it's not uh but many of them uh they have a solid solid core who uh has a lot of playoff experience and potentially um my guess is that that preparation and that um that experience was really help um and they're always so good in the playoffs just in general um and then if you look at the national league um the Dodgers had a buy um and they went out uh to the Diamondbacks uh after the first round they lost three and uh the Phillies and the Braves uh the Braves went out losing to the Phillies 3-1 so and I I will also say um most of these I mean these are five five game serieses best of five serieses and the Diamondbacks w30 anybody who watched that series just the Diamondbacks storm that series uh the Phillies um they beat the Braves 3-1 and the Orioles got swept so if you're looking at like the three teams it wasn't even like uh they lost 3-2 Lost the series 3-2 none of them were were really that competitive uh when you look at sort of how it ended up and the final results so both the World Series the Rangers and the Diamondbacks last year were um were wild card teams so that is I think that is like important and it's important to think about um now definitely uh I think that I'm not suggesting that there should be any tanking I don't think it's really a a you know no major league baseball team I don't think is going to tank um to get the wild card team uh I don't think that's like a realistic thing it's you know I'm sure there's also even if a team did find that strategic they're also I think professional sort of standards that uh you know teams hold themselves to where they're not going to intentionally lose games um but with that said um uh the other thing I do want to just say is I think that there hasn't been a lot of this is one year it's three out of four teams uh I think that uh we would have to see more research um in order to show that the layoff really really hurts teams uh again this is like a newer playoff format right so um the the layoff the the few games the team are playing we have a really small sample size in assessing okay is this really a disadvantage for teams to to not have this continuity of playing um it seems reasonable enough especially for hitters uh that I mean a few days off you lose your timing you know certain mechanical things might you know be different uh but I think overall it's just the timing not seeing live pitching Etc so you can see an argument for why uh you know actually having counterintuitively having the Buy in the first round would be a disadvantage but there's really I think not enough research on that um in order to justify uh really uh any sort of overall assessments that a team or that a fan should not want their team to get a Buy in the first round right there's not enough for that and when there does become enough evidence for that I would imagine Major League Baseball will change the playoff format so that it's not a disadvantage to have a buy in the first round and you know they can actually like uh be properly rewarding teams um you know in uh yeah or like properly uh I don't know uh properly giving teams uh an actual advantage uh in the in the current playoff format so when research becomes available that this playoff format isn't working and that teams just cannot overcome uh four or five days of not playing baseball uh then you know things will probably change but until that point you know the Orioles should be angling to win the division and to only have to win uh three serieses in order to win the World Series instead of four so that's basically that um so yeah the Orioles are now I will just make a couple notes I did want to just say real quick so if we look at um couple things so the Orioles have 43 games left if the Orioles even win 20 out of the 43 and let's say the O play sub 500 baseball which I'm not expecting I don't think will happen but if they do the or would still comfortably make the playoffs with 90 wins um if you look at last year um the uh yeah oh okay so actually it's a little off but so maybe 90 is not exactly comfortable for the Orioles but the Orioles uh would have made the playoffs uh last year uh with 90 wins 90 wins was enough for a team in the American League to make the playoffs but even if the Orioles win uh 20 20 out of these remaining 43 games or um even if let's just say they win 22 of them uh the Orioles will be in good position uh to make the playoffs right so even right around 500 baseball the rest of the way should be enough for the playoffs right so we're not too worried about that um the other consideration uh that you know people have talked about a little bit is just um you know and this has sort of been a little bit of a theme is that the Red Sox are sort of uh in third place uh they got off to like a rougher start but have like improved a bit as the season has gone on um I mean they're not immediately they're not playing like fantastic baseball but they do have some strengths the team uh and currently the Red Sox are seven games behind so um I don't really uh think about the Red Sox too much as an actual threat for the division um the Oriol uh and the Yankees um would really have to struggle going the rest of the way now the Red Sox could make a play at the Wild Card they're definitely in that conversation but as far as winning the division being seven games back at this point in the season is a lot um and with only 43 games left left for the Orioles that's not a lot of time to make up a lot of ground now I know that like you know some years ago it must have been 10 15 years ago I mean I know there was like uh I think it was like the Mets that uh choked a seven game lead with like 17 games left in the season or something something absurd like that um but I think it's you know I I don't think the Orioles have to worry too much about that and they would have to play I either they would have to play at a level that is entirely unexpected or the Red Sox would have to play at an elevated level that is entirely unexpected as well so um I don't think the Red Sox are you know I think the Orioles really uh to the extent that they are checking standings and not just focusing on their own Games Etc and not just trying to win every day um I think the Orioles really just have to focus on and think about the Yankees as their competition um so yeah and and that's really it uh for that now I mean the one thing uh I will say about this as well is I mean if we're looking at like the starting pitching um this Grayson Rodriguez injury I think is really going to hurt even though he's not um he's theoretically not supposed to be out too long um he is going to miss a couple starts here at least and uh probably three and maybe four uh I'm not positive actually but uh somewhere in this ballpark uh at a bare minimum some two to four starts and this is this is not great uh because uh the Yankees rotation right now uh is not pitching very well um some of their starters are pitching slightly below uh sort of where they should be at um and then some of them there are a couple of them that are that are much worse than where they should be at um I think strowman and Cortez in particular are really struggling and then the the other three are not doing as they're like not doing terribly but they're also like not doing um they're not pitching as well as they're capable of and sort of you know what's I guess to be expected of them given how good pitchers they are um but with that said the Yankees rotation is healthy and the Orioles is not so um you know at like right now with the starting rotation I think there's enough reason to be concerned uh Trevor Rogers has not looked great I don't really feel comfortable with him uh at this point like moving forward uh in the rest of the season uh hopefully uh I think that uh if things go well uh he's not going to be starting in the play playoffs for us um but uh yeah I mean it is the Orioles do have um some struggles I think with uh the starting rotation Dean Kramer has been pitching somewhat mediocre uh right now um he's not pitching uh that great I think Tyler talked about this since he's returned from the injured list so uh and I will just make a note about this because this did just come up again in the ray series but uh I will say that I am nominating uh right now I am nominating Albert Suarez to be uh for the unsung hero award for the 2024 Baltimore Orioles um I mean Albert Suarez has just been uh spectacular uh he's gone in between roles um and yeah when he pitched uh five shutout Innings uh for us uh even though I mean this is what everyone's been making a big deal about like we haven't won the games he started for us but he's been really really clutch uh coming in making a couple critical spot starts for us um even though we weren't able to win the games um he's been huge so uh I'm definitely uh yeah definitely uh thinking about him for the unsung hero award uh at the end of this year but um yeah I just all that to say that I think for the Orioles right now there are concerns with the rotation there are just more General concerns about the offense going the rest of the way now definitely the Yankees have their whole host of concerns as well they have not been playing great either um but it is just worth saying that uh you know I think like going down uh you know thinking about the future and thinking about this uh remaining quarter of the schedule the Orioles definitely do have some areas that that they need to correct in order to take this division um so that is uh that um yeah and I think uh if we're looking at it um I am you know I do think um the Orioles do have uh hopefully um I would like to think that the Orioles have a little bit of an edge uh going the rest of the way uh I don't know um you know how much that is but I do think it is sort of a tossup at this point more or less um even if uh you give the orol is a slight Advantage I think it is around the 50% uh number uh who could win you know 5347 or something like that but um yeah I think it is going to be very very very competitive as I said the Yankees are a little bit benefited uh because they do have the slightly weaker schedule going the rest of the way um but uh I think that this is uh important for uh the Orioles to be thinking about um and it it's also going to be important to be thinking about when we get down to the last few games of the season and if we're sort of in a situation maybe like like the last day of the Season you know the Orioles need a win in order to get the buy like what are we going to do are we going to start Corbin Burns uh on four days rest and sort of risk you know if he if we don't make it in or if we lose that game right like you know what are the repercussions for the playoffs for us th that sort of thing so sort of uh aligning and setting up the starting rotation for those final few days final few games uh could be really critical trying to potentially um align the starting uh the starting pitchers with you know the Yankees and trying to see if you can uh yeah try trying to throw your best pitchers uh in that Series against the Yankees so um there's a lot of sort of uh things like that and quirks that Brandon Hyde is going to have to figure out uh going the rest of the way uh in conjunction of course with michelas um but yeah uh I think uh that's most of it um yeah I just sort of wanted to give this overview of the standings um the Orioles um so oh so the other thing that is also uh somewhat important um is that okay so like uh the the third uh division the third division winner uh would play uh in the Wild Card round in addition to uh the the the best uh Team so uh just for like the standings and for the matchups um if the Orioles do uh not win the division it would be important for yeah it would be important for the uh um yeah it would be important for the Orioles to be like the fourth seed headed into the playoffs um and that way you get home field advantage so and there is like some there is a scenario where the Orioles don't end up having that right um there is a scenario where uh right the Yankees beat us for the division like let's say the Guardians go in the Astros win the division or something like this and then you know there are like the twins in the AL Central and the AL Central is not a great division uh there are many years where the AL Central is sort of the weak division out of the five I'm sorry out of the three in the AL um but the twins are like just a you know a few games behind us so um you know it's not incon able that uh the twins uh end up being like the four right now I think that a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Orioles to be in that situation but those sorts of scenarios are still possibilities right so it is import you know I know I was talking about the Orioles just sort of playing around 500 to even make it into the playoffs but going up the the sort of the seed ladder of the playoffs um is beneficial for HomeField advantages of course all these sorts of things so um yeah definitely something to keep in mind and uh yeah I mean we uh it it's just uh thinking about this last final push that the Orioles have to undergo I'm hoping and part of my you know part of what I'm hoping uh I think that there are are uh you know currently it feels like this team at least with segments of the team um is feeling and experiencing some sort of fatigue and you I you know at least I think about that predominantly with this offense right now um the offense has just like not been Dynamic has not been interesting uh other than you know sort of The Usual Suspects santand cower Etc um you know the offense has not looked great um and you know I should say holiday too um but uh so um yeah it's it's been you know so I'm thinking about fatigue and the Orioles the rest of the way do have more off days built into their schedule so hopefully there can be some sort of like recovery process and it's possible like the Orioles are still like to some degree suffering the effects of their June schedule um or I'm sorry their was it their June or July schedule it had to be their June schedule um but uh yeah so um in any case um yeah so there's a lot um sort of although yeah yeah yeah yeah they June schedule of course yeah um when the O's had one off day so uh I still think like you know because even though it's not like directly you know they've had plenty of off days and it's like sure they have but it's like you know getting one off day uh you know you sort of have to recover there's like more expected out of like a recovery period it's not like everything resets after one off day you know there's lingering uh uh not even injuries but lingering tensions and pains and you know uh in the bodies and stuff like that that are experienced and felt so uh hopefully like as the Orioles like have a schedule that begins to like integrate and you know sort of build more off days into the schedule the Orioles had an off day uh today on Monday the 12th now they do play you know plenty of games in a row here again uh and they have another off day on the 26th uh but in September they definitely have a few different off days um on the 5th on the 12th on the 16th the 23rd so um hopefully you know with those off days um they'll be able to sort of like return to a little bit of the form that they showed earlier in the year so um you know things don't look ideal right now um and the Orioles are in this really really competitive playoff race that is like headed down to the wire um you know it's sort of debatable uh how much uh that division means but I do think it is extra important uh that we think about um you know we think about sort of the difficulty the Orioles have had with the schedule uh as I've said like this looks like to me at least the offense and particular not as much like the pitching although I think they're definitely certain members of the pitching staff that you could argue look fatigued but overall you know we're thinking about the offense looking fatigued and three four off days could be really really critical um and really beneficial official uh like to a team that is struggling for you know uh feels like it's sort of behind the curve in getting the proper rest and being able to sort of uh play a normal uh I say quote unquote normal baseball schedule because a baseball schedule by itself is very very just naturally grueling and enduring um so 162 games is no joke the practice every day you know you're on the field hours and hours stretching and throwing Etc before the game starts so um yeah baseball is a grueling grueling sport but um yeah so anyway um yeah but so uh that might be extra incentive uh potentially for like the Orioles to be trying to get that playoff uh by in the first round and really be able to sort of recover headed into the playoff so as I said maybe that's not actually borne out by you know the limited data and end information we have um so it's a little unclear not sure uh what actually is best I don't think anyone really knows that but uh definitely I think if you're an O's fan you should be hoping that the Orioles get that get that buy in the first round and not feel too scarred from last year's so coming up uh we do have two at home against the Nationals before the Boston Red Sox come in into town for a division rivalry so we have a six-game homeand before heading out on the road all right so uh make sure you follow the show uh feel free to give us a festar rating and review we also have a YouTube channel uh so feel free to go subscribe to us over there like our videos uh feel free to comment uh with any thoughts uh if you have um yeah anything you want to get get in contact with us about feel free to email us at the warehous Pod gmail.com you can feel free to follow us on Instagram and on Twitter at the warehous Pod so um yeah thank you so much for listening thanks to the sponsor of this video this has been the warehouse podcast my name is Jesse and Goos