🔴BREAKING - Category 2 Landfall IMMINENT In Louisiana! Latest Tropical Weather Update Stream

[Music] a [Music] alrighty guys good morning everybody happy Wednesday September the 11th my friends hope everyone is doing well glad to have you guys here uh so I want to do something here real quickly I know this is typically not something we usually do but uh since today is the anniversary of 911 I do want to give a few moments of silence for the people who lost their lives um so we're going to do that now all right all right guys so uh well welcome everybody good morning to you we got ourselves a bit of stuff we need to discuss we got a lot of updates here for you uh whenever it comes to it we are expecting a category 2 now at landfall once again the storm has actually picked up a lot of strength my friends since yesterday I think yesterday's uh update were we at I think we're at 75 sustained if I'm not mistaken we're now at 90 we're now at 90 sustained man uh so sustained winds of 90 miles an hour with Gus up to 115 Central low is down to 976 mbar uh this is as of the 8:00 uh update here now to be classified as a category 2 uh the storm has uh got to be uh sustained of like I think it's 94 pretty sure 94 or greater uh is considered Category 2 so as we approach our way into this afternoon uh right around 2:00 uh p.m. eastern time which will be for for us over in this area for us local people impacted uh this would be like 1:00 uh for you guys so as of the 2:00 update here or sorry the 2:00 uh forecast track down in time today we should be sustained around 100 miles hour with gust up to 120 uh now obviously you know uh there is no marker for you know direct landfall you know for where we're going to you know see that landfall but it's it's probably going to be somewhere still I'd say around like 95 or 100 mph sustained so it's going to be like uh lower in category two St rength upper in category one strength um overall so we're going to have to to look out there for that now obviously we already have our hurricane warnings we we've known this for a while now uh hurricane warnings are in effect here here's the latest infrared you can kind of see that there's you know two big areas of two big blobs of convection uh the core of the storm is somewhere in here roughly right around this area here um a really big blob of convection going on on like the Western uh side of the storm there's obviously no eye right now there's no visible eye uh but if we take a look at the radar uh we're going to go ahead and bring up our Louisiana radar we got klch uh you can actually kind of see there there's that uh quote unquote eyewall that's more of the core um you know basically like the you know the core wall I guess we'll call it it's it's like I said I wouldn't consider it an eyewall because there's no visible eye yet but this this would be where the eyeball is this is basically you know like the the wall uh the inner wall there but anyways so yeah that's a lot of your strongest winds are currently at right now but you can see you know obviously we're still a little ways away um you know uh you know we we are still a little bit ways away uh from you know like I mentioned uh landfall here um let's see here uh shrimpy says what do you mean the people who lost their oh I was just I was just doing a moment of silence for the 911 victims um because they lost their lives unfortunately that was very very sad day um and a day that will never forget uh let's see here what's up tabletop yellow blob off North oh yeah yeah we do actually I looked at that earlier models are still supporting it so we'll keep an eye on it there's another system that we might want to watch uh it's got a 20% chance of development here the overall probs are pretty low and we got a handful of little bubbles over here uh towards like the MDR uh the main development region here we got ourselves uh a 90% chance on this one over here 50 in the next two days 90 overall um let's see here and of course we have ourselves a 30% chance for this little guy down here I don't know why that's an orange uh let's see here this one's a 10 1010 so yeah this this one over here is pretty low odd it's of forming we we'll get more into the in depth in the models in a minute um with you know all the systems and stuff like that but for right now obviously our main concern is the one that's literally getting ready to slap Louisiana so um like I mentioned you know out there towards uh um you know like I out there towards Louisiana we definitely need to be uh very much prepared you guys should obviously be prepared by now if you're not uh make sure you have your final preps done soon because we're going to start really feeling those effects soon so uh landfall area uh is going to be somewhere um let's see here we have like Marsh Island Wildlife Refugee uh areas near Patterson Morgan City uh you know that's that's roughly where the landfall is expected for today um you know I think some of this here is like uh see there's a mosquito mosquito gasfield narrow hammock that's interesting um I think a lot of this is like Wetlands if I'm not mistaken over on this part of uh Louisiana um let's see here Rebecca says my grandma passed on September 11 2021 um sorry to hear that Rebecca she's in a better place now my friend um but uh but yeah I mean so Morgan City Patterson Franklin um how do you say that one Gina J ready uh so those areas there is you know kind of in the cone here that's roughly uh where we're going to be seeing you know the landfall so just a bit of a heads up now uh we'll get into the timing and stuff like that whenever we we dive into the model analysis but you can already see you know some of those bands already starting to go over Louisiana here um if we take a look at Radar's estimated uh total precipitation obviously you know there's not a whole lot that's Fallen quite yet cu the storm is you know just now starting to get involved in this area um but yeah some areas have already seen maybe a quarter half an inch of rain in some spots um throughout Louisiana obviously that's going to continue to increase throughout the day we're going to do live coverage today um you know later this evening you know like I mentioned landfall today is going to be like late afternoon uh early evening I think kind of maybe mid mid mid evening uh we'll figure that out with the models I really haven't uh browsed the models much this morning I kind of waited to do that with you guys so we can kind of you know look at everything uh shmy says thank you I thought you meant from the hurricane um I know about the meaning of today's yeah yeah no it was yeah I just wanted to do a moment of silence this morning for um the people who lost their lives but yeah no not not hurricane related but um obviously you know now that we're moving on into the hurricane um you know obviously like I said I want you guys to be ready now the core of the storm um looks like it might be going right near Baton Rouge um which that that would be a bit concerning obviously Baton Rouge we actually do have hurricane warnings in effect uh so Baton Rouge Louisiana we are expecting hurricane conditions okay uh New Orleans just on the outside um but New Orleans here we do have a tropical storm warning in effect uh tropical storm conditions now uh remember there's going to be a lot of impacts today uh tornadoes uh is going to be an impact let's actually take a look at here SPC real quickly uh but yeah tornadoes will be an issue um obviously we have ourselves uh storm surge uh you know flooding from the rainfall and stuff like that here let's go ahead and hop over here to the SPC um so today's uh outlook here uh we got a slight risk out there for like the Eastern side of Louisiana Southern Mississippi like Golfport area uh we got Mobile Alabama Pensacola Florida um so you know a lot of these areas here in the yellow this is the level two threat for flooding an idiot not for flooding I'm sorry I'm just still waking up guys level two threat for severe weather uh we'll get into the flooding aspect of things I think we still have that moderate risk and effect we looked at yesterday um but yes slight level two threat for severe weather and in like I said you know for tornadoes though uh 5% chance as of right now uh for tornado probability so um some of these highly populated areas include like New Orleans uh mobile uh Meta Meta Meta a I'm not too sure Louisiana golf Port Mississippi and Kenner Louisiana uh those are in the 5% regions here um and of course the level the 2% region includes Baton Rouge uh Meridian Mississippi new Liberia uh shann andoa and lural Mississippi uh you guys are in that level two or the low tornado threat for today so uh but overall you know most of the tornac activity is going to be in the shade of brown obviously you know potential for some tornadoes as well across the dark green there uh overall um and of course we have a little bit of a threat up in the Pacific Northwest today a little marginal risk nothing too no tornadoes up there just a little bit of wind a little bit of hail towards like Montana um you know portions of Idaho a little bit of Oregon included a little bit of Northern Nevada barely squeezing in that wrist there um but yeah the main concern is going to be down there in the uh in the Southeast here regarding the tropical system here uh then of course we work way into tomorrow now tomorrow we actually got two slight risk we got a slight risk up in the uh kind of like the Pacific I I would really consider this Pacific Northwest this is kind of more of like ah this is like right on the Rockies I'm pretty sure this side of Montana's relatively flat so we're just going to call this the Northern Plains um so we got a slight risk out there uh 2% chance for tornadoes actually up in Montana tomorrow uh and of course we have the continuation of the tornado threat due to this tropical system here uh throughout the panhandle of Florida 5% Alabama will be at risk for tornadoes tomorrow um you know as that low tracks up to the north it's going to be bringing up a lot of um you know strong wind here uh it's going to be bringing up you know a lot of that instability uh which is prime conditions for tornadoes um in which you know yeah Panhandle Florida tomorrow Alabama bits of Georgia and like I said that level two threat we have like a little bit of Mississippi and a little bit of Tennessee included in the Tor threat for tomorrow too uh for like South extreme South Central uh Tennessee there um overall so um and of course day three uh as of now for Friday there is no active severe weather expected um as of right now today uh and tomorrow will be the days for severe weather now obviously yeah today's Wednesday tomorrow's Thursday so as of now it's just Wednesday and Thursday that we have the tornado threat so like I said we're going to go live later we're going to be covering the system as it makes landfall um so we'll be talking about active tornado warnings we'll be kind of you know going over live Graphics uh live actually have a stormchaser Omar he's going to be uh on the ground he's actually in Louisiana right now uh he's going going to um he's going to be uh you know storm chasing out there so we're going to have a live stormchaser we're going to have live cameras we're going to have radar satellite imagery uh all everything we really need to have so we're going to have all that uh in you know in the bag here for today uh let's see shrimpy says thank you for the moment of silence too of course it's it's the least I could do uh tabletop says praying for everyone in the path of the storm watching from Coastal North Carolina yep absolutely guys so like I said make make sure you have your final preps already in place um you know like I me like like we mentioned you guys should be well prepared at this point um you know cuz like I said the storm's literally just outside your doorstep right now I mean it's it's it's getting close it is it's certainly getting close um and so by the time we reach tomorrow morning uh the storm should be downgraded back in the tropical storm status uh like I mentioned guys it is currently an upper level category one um it's not that far away from from Cat 2 you know like I mentioned it's on the forecast track it is expected to reach Cat 2 later this morning uh early this afternoon here um so we'll be right around Category 2 strength I think maybe the 11:00 update uh I think I think we have 11 o'clock update yeah um I think we'll probably be cat two we might be like maybe around 95 sustained 100 um we are expecting the thing to get to Category 2 um as we approach our way uh just off the coast of Louisiana now uh there's going to be a bit of problems uh later on with the storm here if we take a look at the uh the satellite imagery you can actually see all that that black Over Texas so that's all dry air uh all these colors are representing you know moisture at various levels in the atmosphere uh and obviously the Big Blob you see here that's where we have those uh clouds that's where obviously the storm is right now um but if you look at the western side there's a lot of black which that is showing dry air there is a lot of dry air low humidity uh throughout our atmosphere in this region uh which that is going to kind of Choke grab a a hold of the storm here and kind of Choke it um so that's going to be a bit of a problem that's going to actually allow the storm to weaken as we approach Louisiana um which might help aid in a rapid destabilization upon landfall um so obviously tropical systems when they make landfall they you know obviously rapidly fall apart because you're taking away their heat Source you're taking away the warm water um you know from the ocean but in this case there's also going to be a lot of dry air getting sucked into the storm here you know from Texas you know all that dry air is already starting to kind of uh meet the leftand side of the storm um it's not really interacting too too crazily right now I mean obviously we still have a lot of moisture involved but later on today though as we start to start wrapping in some of that dry air um you're going to notice um the storm you know as we approach louisi going probably start in the weekend so that that could be good that would certainly be good obviously the weaker the better um of course but you know regardless I mean dry air or not the storm's still going to be a very powerful system I mean like I said even tropical storms are a big issue um and and like I mentioned you know this is going to be like uh uppercat one lower Cat 2 at landfall you know that's kind of what I was forecasting a couple days ago I was telling you guys about I think I was thinking uppercat one lower Cat 2 um seems like our our forecast was was nailed I'm very thankful for that I'm thankful for that that way we got that information out early for you guys um but yeah so like I mentioned lower Cat 2 uh upper category one seems to be uh you know where the where everything's kind of uh you know zoomed into uh so that's that's kind of what we are looking at but anyways but let's go and take a look here at some of these Graphics we got a lot of stuff to talk about like storm surge and and all that mess um so surges are going to be a really big issue uh let's actually bring this over here to you guys uh we're going to actually we're going to hop you over here and we're going to bring this down here so here's our latest surge map from the Hurricane Center uh the point of landfall we are going to be seeing about 5 to 10 foot of storm surge out there um out there from the Vermillion Bay um let's see here basically there towards inter coastal city towards uh Port uh fort Fortune I think it is Port Fortune um so you guys are going to be getting about 5 to 10 foot storm surge so if you don't know what storm surges is basically ocean water that's going to be rising 5 to 10 foot above normal and that's going to be flooding a lot of the coastlines and so that's going to be an issue across those regions once again inter coastal city to Port Fortune uh we're going to be right around 5 to 10 foot but uh some of these other areas here like MTH Mississippi River um to Fort uh or sorry Port Fortune uh 4 to 7 foot out there Cameron inter coastal city 3 to 5 foot freep port to Cameron 1 to 3 foot uh this does include a little bit of like Northern Coastal Texas and a little bit of surge as possible um Gulfport area you know Mobile Bay uh we could be seeing you know a couple feet of storm surge out there I mean shoot even a little bit of Florida um out there towards like you know the very far western side that's out there by like Pensacola isn't it yeah near Pensacola uh we're going to be having ourselves maybe a little bit of surges maybe one to two foot of storm surge out there so um that is going to be a possibility but by far the heaviest of the activity you know where that landfall is um you know where the eyewall is going to be literally like grabbing a hold of the coast over here um we're going to be seeing like uh 5 to 10 foot of storm surge which that is that is a lot of surge that is a big problem um so think of like you know upwards of 10t high water the area not to mention during high tide where you know typical tidal force is uh typically the water is higher than normal plus adding the storm surge basically the winds pushing all that water inland so not to mention are we not only are going to have high surges um we're also going to have you know at high tide uh we're going to be having um a big problem with rainfall too I mean that's that's the next thing I want to pull up here for you guys is rainfall you know we're going to be seeing those areas here good 6 to 8 in in those low-lying areas that will accumulate quickly so that's that's a big problem so water is going to be a big issue and that's that's honestly the leading killer out of tropical systems is the flooding that is the main issue so that's that's what we're worried about now not to mention you know like we mentioned before there's going to be um you know a lot of wind of course as well um so you know whenever you introduce a lot of rain to an area it really saturates the ground uh it loosens up the ground and allows for trees power lines stuff like that to come down a lot easier because you know it's more uh more broken up the ground's more broken up and plus you know the strong winds on top of that will you know allow for some big trees to come down so uprooting trees will be a big issue um you know across probably not just Louisiana but I'd also say like Mississippi maybe Alabama Tennessee maybe could have some issues cuz they're going to be seeing a lot of rainfall as well uh 2 to four uh inches of rainfall through a lot of Alabama here uh Central and Western Tennessee you know uh 2 to 4 Ines of rainfall out here Southeastern uh Missouri um portions like Western Kentucky eastern Arkansas uh you know this dark green region here is indicating two to four Ines of rainfall now we have Mississippi here including Jackson but barely uh four to six inches of rainfall out there along the Eastern side of Mississippi um and of course uh we do have ourselves you know portions of the panhandle of Florida there too like P Cola like we mentioned there um included in the 4 to 6 in range now obviously you know the point of landfall that's where you're going to likely see some of the heaviest precipitation um you know out there uh towards literally the South Central Coastline here of Louisiana we're going to be seeing about like maximum um 68 expected uh with potentially higher local amounts being possible uh what category is it right now it is an upper level category one yep she's currently sustained at 90 mph uh we are currently gusting I believe up to was it 100 I believe uh 115 yeah so currently we're sustained at uh 90 so we're constant the winds are constantly blowing at 90 it's literally like 5 mph short from a category 2 it is an upper level category one right now and uh like we mentioned this thing is forecasted to be Category 2 uh I think maybe by next update we'll have to see how that goes but I I wouldn't be surprised if you know that pushes up maybe 95 100 mph sustained uh but yeah right now currently the storm is a category 1 uh upper level category 1 sustain Winds of 90 M an hour with gusts so Peak winds uh you know getting up to right around 115 Central low is down to 976 mbars um and that's as of the 8:00 a.m. update so that was you know relatively fresh that's relatively fresh information but as we roll our away into the 11 a.m. update I wouldn't be surprised if we were um right at lower cat two you know like we mentioned here as we approach 2 p.m. so later this afternoon we're actually forecasted to be slightly above low like lowest in cat 2 uh sustained at 100 with Gus up to 120 so yeah we're obviously going to be picking up you know quite a bit of strength here but like like I mentioned before um as we work our way towards the coast here we're going to be getting a little bit of dry air coming in we can already see it on the satellite imagery all that black you see Over Texas like we mentioned this is all dry air low humidity the atmosphere is prettyy dry across this region meanwhile you have all these fancy colors across the gulf right now these are indicating a lot of moisture at various levels of the atmosphere um in which obviously you know we have the big white puffy puffiness here of the main system there's a lot of you know saturation going on in the storm right now obviously so that's you know you could obviously see that dry air that that black there um starting to kind of rub against the western side of the storm eventually as that storm pulls closer that dry air is going to start nudging on the bottom side of the system which is going to allow for um storm activity to suppress in that region um which will kind of throw off its stability um you know the storm structure stability I should say uh which will you know potentially allow for the storm to kind of start destabilizing as we you know kind of near uh the coast there so that'll that'll be good that'll be good obviously let's hope that the dry air gets to it a lot before you know we make landfall but like I said time's running out man I mean we don't have that much longer until landfall we we're expecting landfall this evening like I mentioned uh not this morning not this afternoon but you know some point this evening uh let's go ahead and hop over into the models we're going to we're going to go a little more specific here we're going to go to the hwrf that's going to be our first model run here that we're going to take a peek at um so when it comes to it uh current this is this 06 Zulu update current time is 12 Zulu so uh we should have a new run uh within a couple hours coming out here uh with these models but we're not going to be live at that point but uh anyways but yeah this is the latest latest and greatest now according to the hwrf upon landfall this is showing like 5 between 5 and 8:00 p.m. eastern time so between 4: and 700 p.m. central um is when we're expecting landfall according to this model okay so we're going to remember that 5 to 8:00 p.m. Eastern um this model has it making landfall uh you know with the pressure right around mid 960s right now it's in the mid 970s so we you know this model is expecting about a 10 mbar drop um in pressure uh between now and later this afternoon evening um now there's that dry air I was talking to you guys about you know current state you know right around now I mean we're relatively I mean obviously we mentioned that there is that derrier on the left- hand side but Storm's relatively still intact uh you know regarding a lot of moisture but as we work away closer to landfall you know that that dry a is going to really start getting under that storm there um which is going to allow for the system to um you know kind of halt its thunderstorm activity on the southern side kind of destabilizing in the system not to mention you know we're going out of warm water which is going to you know naturally kill out the system anyway so between dry air between the um you know removal of ocean water uh to the variable here storm is going to you know quickly uh kind of disintegrate or quickly I wouldn't say disintegrate but quickly um you know kind of disassemble itself um and of course you know this is going to remain a big flooding concern for like you know areas up towards like you know may maybe like Tennessee uh Mississippi you can see all the kind of bluish green color here this is indicating a lot of precipitation a lot of moisture in the atmosphere um in which you know that'll continue up into portions like the Midwest here but you know like I mentioned before though landfall according to this model between 5 and 8:00 p.m. Eastern so let's hop over to the h n this is another model now this one shows landfall between 5 and eight as well so it seems like we have maybe a bit of agreement here um between 5 and 8 there's that dry air getting onto the bottom side of the system as we talked about um you know overall that's going to be um unfortunately it doesn't look like the dryer's going to get there in time the dryer's going to get there once the storm has already pushed Inland uh and kind of once one of those or kind of sorry once some of the worst impacts have already happened that's whenever the dryer is going to really start getting to it according to models I mean both hwrf and both this model supported that now um this model also shows the pressure getting down maybe in the 9 uh the mid 960s uh that like I said that would be about about 10 millibar drop or so so we obviously we are expecting some strengthening until then uh and if we take a look at those lower Dynamics I mean you can just see here that that those winds I mean that pink there uh showing like hurricane force winds in this region uh in the purple there you know you can just see that that those coasts are just going to get absolutely battered um with uh really strong winds and and like I mentioned you know what happens there is you know since you have such strong winds that's going to be literally pushing those waves pushing that water at the coast and that's what's going to give you those really high surges uh like we mentioned you know in this area you know the point of landfall we're expecting about 5 to 10 foot above sea level so where the ocean normally stands imagine water 5 to 10 foot higher that's where the storm that that's that's how high the water potentially is going to be so obviously you know this is a big problem for coastal areas um on top of that we mentioned tidle forces can even you know obviously add to higher uh levels um also rainfall like we mentioned you know I think it was 6 to 8 inches in the in landfall area uh that's going to add to more water which is not what we want that's definitely not what we want so there's going to be a lot of problems with this area and and like like obviously you know geography speaking uh Louisiana does not handle water at all uh you know there's there's a lot of problems with with Louisiana especially new Orleans if you don't know they're actually below sea level and they have those levies that's you know keeping that water in but when you introduce a lot of rain like this it could become a big issue uh it could become a really big problem so obviously uh New Orleans it could be worse I will say that it could be a lot worse however um it's still not going to be all you know good and and fun out there um because New Orleans is is still in a a tropical storm warning uh for one uh but also you know whenever it comes to like the rainfall and such uh we'll go and hop you guys back over here real quickly uh when it comes like to the rainfall and such I mean they're going to be seeing six uh up to six inches of rainfall out there you know four to six inches of rain out there in New Orleans that's that's a big deal um plus like I mention you know we're going to be seeing a bit of surges um you know out there towards uh Lake Ponka train I mean is how you say that P Pon chart train Pon train I'm not too sure I'm not I'm not from the area I don't really know this area too much but uh you know four to six foot uh of surges out there even you know so not only is there going to be a lot of rain but there's also going to be a lot of surges out there as well but yeah the main area uh four surges is going to be up there in that red area 5 to 10 foot uh above sea level uh is expected overall so that my friends is a big issue uh now uh oh they have hurricane I didn't know they put hurricane watches out there um is that new that's near New Orleans isn't it yeah near New Orleans Lake uh Pon train to put hurricane watches out there that's very I I did not know that those were there um if we take a look at the uh the experimental cone you can actually see how we have um you know the red here that's that's our hurricane warnings in effect uh for those regions there uh the blue is indicating tropical storm warnings so literally the entire Southern Coastline of Louisiana is in at least tropical storm warnings uh the middle portion is in hurricane warnings where that landfall is expected um and of course we have ourselves like all of Southern Mississippi uh including like Gulfport area I mean even like South Western Mississippi even has tropical storm warnings in place uh Mobile Alabama uh we have um you know those areas there included in that tropical storm warning activity uh and even some of those tropical storm watches uh overall uh we are seeing you know the potential out there for um you know like I mentioned uh potential tropical storm activity uh overall uh let's see you do not know New Orleans yeah I I never grew up there I'm from Virginia myself so not too familiar with the area but I do know that uh New Orleans uh and you know just Louisiana in general have a big problem with flooding and you when you introduce a lot of rain like that you know several inches of rainfall you know like I said six to eight inches you know upon the landfall point not to mention you know some of those areas experiencing like five to 10 foot of uh surges not New Orleans but you know Louisiana uh it's a big it's a big problem you know for anywhere really so that is um certainly going to be a uh a big issue there uh but anyways now currently where those tropical storm warnings are sorry tropical storm Forest winds are being felt estimated here um the yellow is representing here the estimated tropical storm Forest winds obviously right now we are not um hitting Louisiana yet um we'll start to feel those later on likely this this afternoon is when we're going to start feeling those those tropical storm Force conditions um and of course the the red indicating those hurricane uh force winds out there uh if we take a look here back at the models um like the HM n here for example uh when it comes to it you know we're going to we're going to likely start to see those tropical storm warnings like or sorry tropical storm conditions uh sometime early afternoon you know sometime early afternoon this is like uh you know right around 2 p.m according to this you know some of the the southern uh Islands here uh of Louisiana we're we're going to start to see you know those tropical storm force uh winds you like 35 knots and greater out there and of course those hurricane war or sorry I keep on saying warnings man those hurricane uh conditions are going to start to uh really start to impact the region there kind of by late afternoon uh going into the early evening there so you know like I mentioned um we're expecting landfall between 5: and 800 pm. that's what the H and hwrf agree on so I mean we have a bit of a bit of agreement there both models do show that pressure getting down into the midn 60s by the time we reached about a 10mar drop right now we're down to 974 let me uh fact check that let's see right now we are at 976 okay so we're at 976 uh in the models here um oops uh the models have us um you know those two models have it going down into the mid 960s overall uh let's see fith cat says I'm just hoping that it won't be like hurricane Zeta um hit my home area uh Washington County Alabama gotcha so you know one of the things my friend uh that you want to look out for uh this speaks to a lot of my folks up in Alabama um we mentioned this a few minutes ago uh but I do want to go over to you know the new people joining us so tomorrow um all of Alabama does have some form of tornado threat uh the biggest concern for tornadoes the most probabilistic area for seeing tornadoes tomorrow um is going to be for the pan handle of Florida Southwestern Georgia you know barely scraping the bottom there uh as well as Central uh and Southern portions of Alabama we have a 5% chance for tornadic activity tomorrow uh also can't forget about that little 2% up there in eastern Montana too and of course here for tomorrow uh or sorry for today um that that's that was for tomorrow this is for today here uh for today we do have ourselves you like I said the 5% risk out there for like Eastern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southern Alabama uh in portions like coal Panhandle Florida so uh we're going to get some um you know some toric activity you got the Cyclone induced uh you know toric activity going on there where basically uh you have increased wind shear um you know you got uh some pretty high helicity values um you which could really you know spark that torn adct formation um so you got high helicities strong Shear um overall and of course you have you know a lot of your instability that's where your energy is in the atmosphere to produce um you know tornado activity so you know basically it just sums up to that's where the best ingredients come together um for tornadoes overall but yeah once again today the dark brown here is a 5% chance for tornadoes the green is a 2% chance for tornadoes um so keep that in mind overall and of course you know a little marginal up there in the Northwest here uh no tornadoes just wind and a little bit of hail just want to go ahead and draw that out and then of course one last time for Friday as of now there's no active uh severe weather threats so that's that's good one thing I do want to pull you guys over to now um and then we'll dive back into models one thing I do want to go ahead and bring up though is the flooding threat for today now first of all I'm going to go ahead and remove these active warnings and watches let's go ahead and get those tropical ones out of here for now um kind of you know unclutter up the place here uh there we go much better so let's go ahead and add uh the flooding outlook here for today we got our day one outlook look at this got a big old moderate so the scale goes up to four uh for flooding for severe weather goes up to five for flooding it goes up to four we're at a level three out of four so we're we're pretty we're up there we're up there pretty big flooding threat today so New Orleans uh Baton Rouge uh is included what's up Chris I hope you're doing good uh Baton Rouge New Orleans uh we have Hattisburg we have Jacksonville or sorry not Jacksonville Jackson um Mississippi uh included there so we have those regions included um regarding the moderate risk for flooding so you guys if you're in this area um like I mentioned that's that's a big problem for flooding so if you're in a flood proned area um you know please be extra cautious because you know there's going to be a lot of water uh both ocean water um as well as a lot of precipitation you know a lot of moisture in the atmosphere there's going to be a lot of water across this area Okay so keep that in mind um but anyways but yeah so moderate level three out of four threat uh for Southern Mississippi and Eastern portions here of Louisiana now the flooding threat doesn't end there obviously the flooding threat goes all the way throughout I mean even Florida uh here we have ourselves a level two flooding threat even in the Georgia Alabama uh level one flooding threat across like Eastern Texas uh Southern Arkansas so you know it's not just Mississippi and Louisiana and the flooding threat uh we got a you know pretty good chunk of the you know the golf Coastal Southeast here uh that has a bit of a flooding threat but the main areas yes will be for Louisiana and Mississippi so keep that in mind I just want to go ahead and go over that now tomorrow we'll go ahead and go over tomorrow since we're already on the topic here uh tomorrow they do not have a moderate but we have a slight which is at level two out of four so the middle threat for flooding tomorrow uh but they do include areas out there towards like Western Tennessee Jackson Tennessee uh Memphis Tennessee Nashville is in the level one uh we have Paduka Kentucky uh we got ourselves like Southeastern portions here of very very far Southeastern Mont or not Montana Missouri um of course we have ourselves like Eastern um Arkansas included here as well well like Jonesboro uh Little Rock in the level one threat for flooding but um so flooding will be a continuation uh for tomorrow for you know a lot of the areas near Tennessee like Kentucky uh northern Mississippi um but today is going to be as of now the heaviest of the flooding days uh then of course for day three which is Friday um we'll just have a little marginal risk as of now so you know small chance for some localized flooding um meanwhile today we have a a very large risk for uh you know not just a very large risk for flooding just in general out there uh let's see here Jason says it's going to be a Monster yeah yeah no she's she's a she's a beast man she's a beast uh Amanda says thank you for the information watch from Alabama you're very welcome Amanda good morning to you uh but anyways but yeah so like I said you know big flooding problem that's going to be a big issue uh we're going to hop you guys back over here to uh the surges so like I mentioned here's our latest surge map uh here from the National Hurricane Center like I said if you're wondering where I got the data from this is from the nhc.gov this is official data um I want to just go ahead and you know disclaimer that just let you guys know this is official um so this is 5 to 10 foot of storm surge out there so we're talking like I said 5 to 10 foot of water above normal level above sea level uh so that's going to be a big problem especially for my folks who live on the coast down there um so 5 to 10 foot of storm surge not to mention you like I said idal forces you know you got high tide which would bring in even more water uh you got the rainfall which is just going to add to even more water um so it's going to be a big wet mess down here uh for sure so yeah 5 to 10 foot of storm surge between inter coastal city and Fort uh or sry Port Fortune um this will be right around um like I said 5 to 10 foot above normal now then we have uh Port Fortune to the mouth of the Mississippi uh we are expecting about 4 to 7 foot Cameron to inter coastal city along the western side 3 to 5 foot even Northern Texas Northern Coastal Texas free port to Cameron uh 1 to 3 foot of storm surge then we work our way up there towards the big lake towards New Orleans 4 to six uh foot I'm not sure how you pronounce that Pon pona train is that how you say it I think that's how you say Obviously probably much very very much wrong but you know I'm not good with pronunciations but anyways four to six foot out there um for basically areas near Golfport um you know anywhere from 3 to 5 to four to six uh foot um you know storm surge out in the region uh Mobile Bay 2 to 4 foot and look at that even a little sliver of potential storm surge of 2 to 4 foot along areas towards like Pensacola Florida um so the little bit of little tip of the western Panhandle could see maybe a little bit um overall um the pressure is dropped down in the 970s yes we're 976 I think we have hurricane hunters in it right now it's actually uh take a quick little peek at the hurricane Hunters see what we got going on here we got couple storms oh we had a 972 reading earlier is that oh buddy look at that we had a 972 reading um we had about 80 it's kind of hard to tell here let me zoom in a little bit Yeah so this is our flight level wins but we want to look um yeah we don't we don't have any SF are unfortunately but flight level winds were pretty high um that's not as it's not obviously correlating to uh the surface though but um pressure yeah was in the that looks like 974 roughly 974 maybe 973 um pressure's definitely dropping fairly quickly uh let's go ahead and grab um I think there might be another plane yeah there's another plane in here too 975 976 here this this one we have sfmr uh which is uh basically like surface winds here um and these are showing about 65 knots so let's do a conversion here um we'll do knots to miles per hour um so what I say 65 okay so 65 knots would be 74 miles an hour so that that would be low in category uh one but but look at this uh and and the first scan or one of the first or the first set of data we we can see here um that actually got up to 75 knots so that would have pushed us over to 86 sustained um right now like we mentioned from the Hurricane Center themselves it is currently sustained at 90 miles an hour which makes it an upper level category one um in the in the gust are getting up to 115 Central low is down to 976 per the 8:00 update it's about 40 45 minutes ago roughly so you know that's that's where we stand uh right now and and like I mentioned here I'll go and bring up the saffer symptom scale uh for you guys um so like I mentioned it is a 90 mph sustained storm right now um and whenever it comes to like you know Category 2 realm uh that puts us to 96 uh and above so um like we mentioned by 2: p.m. according to the Hurricane Center the storm will be sustained at 100 um this is as this will be right around 2 p.m. uh gusting up to 120 um that would put us into Category 2 realm um and we have an update on the tropics uh at 11:00 the Hurricane Center is going to be giving us an update at 11 o'clock um which I wouldn't be if we continue on the rate that we're going right now I mean she's been picking up some strength I would not be surprised if we are right on the brink of cat 2 um if not lower Cat 2 uh by the next update I I would not be surprised to be honest with you guys um but anyways but yeah so like I mentioned you know Category 2 is 96 to0 we're not going to get anything higher than Cat 2 I'm going to go and tell you that now no no chance um but like I mentioned you know I think max speed is going to be low in Category 2 uh which it's forecasted to uh to be a category 2 but anyways so yeah uh let's hop back up here to the models guys we haven't finished looking at those yet but anyway so this is the hwrf like we mentioned um we're going to go and zoom out just a tad so the time's in the top right if you guys want to follow along by the way um so between the hwrf and the HMO n landfalls between 5: and 8:00 p.m. eastern time which would be 4 and 7 Central for you guys so pressure according to both models uh is in the mid 960s upon landfall uh now let's hop over to another model here we're going to look at the um hfsa model uh the hfsa model has the system kind of in the lower 970s so not losing too much more pressure between now and then um landfall should be right around 8:00 according to this model so this one shows it maybe a little bit later than the other models um but this model in particular shows right around 8 Eastern for landfall which would be um right there at 7 7:00 your guys' local time so central time would be it'll be right around 7:00 landfall um so you know it'll be just before Sunset pretty much is when we're going to start to have um that's that's when the landfall is going to occur now the hurricane force winds are going to happen um you know sometime late this afternoon um but it's not really really till evening uh until we have the core or the eye of the storm go over the land that's not going to happen until you know probably between like 5: and 8:00 p.m. um anyways so that's HFS showing lower pressure overall too um now hfsb its sister model shows 969 M bar so maybe upper 960s uh kind of at landfall it's mid 970s but um this one also shows landfall at 800 p.m so right now I would say um probably between like 6 to 9 p.m. Eastern uh or 5 to 5: to 800 P.M uh Central um that's probably whenever we're going to have the landfall it's going to be somewhere in that time now obviously be able to pinpoint it down to the exact minute where're can't really tell that for sure but it'll be sometime late this afternoon early evening that we can tell you that we can tell you um you know and at this point too I mean these these coastlines are going to really start uh those conditions are going to really start deteriorating once we hit noon uh as soon as noon approaches we're going to really start to feel those winds along Ong the coastline and it's just going to continue to get worse throughout the afternoon throughout the evening uh by far the worst of it's going to be during the landfall process and that's going to be um like we mentioned between 5:00 and 8:00 p.m. um that is whenever the heaviest uh is expected and of course you know as the saying uh continues to um to pull up to the north here um you know that those winds are going to rapidly weaken uh it's being pulled out of the water uh there's actually going to be a bit of dry air getting into the system which would be good you can see there represented in the brown as we make landfall here um you can actually see that you know obviously we're going to be having a lot of Dyer infiltration a lot of that um you know low humidity low humid air throughout the atmosphere uh you can see this big gap between our Duo and our um temperature here on our skew uh skew plot along the mid atmosphere uh that is a lot of dry air okay so that's going to be uh you know stunting convection that's going to be preventing thunderstorms from happening on the southern side which is just going to disabil eyesee the storm even further so um looks like conditions are going down now are they here let's let's see I think we do got uh here let's see if I can pull up uh I know I I'm pretty sure we got some good I I do have a stormchaser that we're going to have later today for coverage I'm going to go live some point like later today here let's let's hop you all back over here so we do have cameras in Louisiana uh got a lot of uh lot of uh cameras these are not Coastal cameras though unfortunately let's try this one here let's see what the conditions look like on this camera oh that looks kind of interesting um let's see here let's try to load up a video camera though oh that one's okay that one's down hold on let's see yeah some of these uh are not working very well here we go there we go yeah there's a live cam right there um I mean conditions don't look too bad they don't look too bad although the camera quality is pretty low I can see the leaves moving a little bit I mean I'm sure it's getting a little little windy out there but you know we're not we're not even in tropical storm winds out here yet so um like I said currently the uh tropical storm Force Windfield is located just offshore so this was the update here uh 700 a.m. Central 8:00 Eastern so this was literally about an hour ago um this yellow circle you see here this is where the estimated tropical storm force winds are located right about now uh in the red obviously showing where the hurricane uh force winds are estimated to be like right about now so but anyways so yeah that's that's going to continue to um you know it's going to really start to increase uh once we work our way up into uh this uh this afternoon here so and and once once we transition in the afternoon we're going to start to really start to feel those tropical storm force winds and then as we approach the evening that's when the hurricane force winds are going to really start hitting in um and uh like I said as of now I'm going to try to go live around 5 5:00 P p.m. Eastern it could be later uh we're going to go live right as the storm makes landfall we're going to go live roughly right around the right around the time the storm makes landfall so we'll cut that uh here for you guys but but anyways um but that's that now if you guys have any questions uh here um I am more than happy to answer you all's questions so if you have any questions throw them down in the chat uh like I said I'm here for you I want to give youall some um you know some updates if yall are you know concerned about an area um let me know and uh I'll I'll let you know if you'll have any big problems in that region but but anyways but you know like I mentioned um you know bottom line is uh landfall 5 to 8:00 p.m. Eastern we're expecting 5 to 10t of storm surge out there 6 to 8 in of water at the landfall site from rainfall uh sustained winds are going to be right around 100 miles an hour uh roughly upon landfall uh gusting maybe up to 120 or so um so we're going to be like low in Category 2 uh landfall right now like we mentioned with the current activity the storm right now is sustained at 90 mph which is just short of cat 2 it is um like a I mentioned uh it is currently an upper level category 1 uh Central low is down to 976 mbars and the wind gusts are up to 115 uh sustained overall or sorry Gus sorry sustained at 90 Gus up to 115 uh South Haven Mississippi getting hit um I see there is a lot of areas in Mississippi that's going to be um in the concern area yeah so you're you're definitely in a region where I would um be watch closely of course um now the good news is that you're you're obviously far away from the coast I mean so you're not going to have any direct like impacts from that there's going to be a good amount of rain more than likely um if we take a look at the rainfall map out there you know you're probably going to see a good two to four inches at least locally higher amounts of course um you can see right there uh let actually let hop you back over here y'all um but yeah yeah good two to four inches of rainfall this is the official map from the WPC we'll going we'll going to even refresh this for you guys um you know a lot of like central western uh you know Tennessee out there Western Kentucky Southeastern Missouri eastern Arkansas Alabama pan Florida this dark green area here 2 to 4 Ines of rainfall light green 1 to 2 in of rainfall yellow 4 to six out here so a lot of Mississippi you can see that big streak that's where the core the storm's probably just going to uppercut the uppercut the states here and of course you know at the landfall point there we could see about 6 to 8 in so anyways um um sorry if I missed it will Texas be impacted no no Texas is fine um you know for the most part we're not expecting um you know as crazy impacts as we are expecting for like Louisiana uh we're not going to see much rain out here you know not really picking up a whole whole lot when it comes to it now um right now we do have ourselves you know those tropical storm warnings kind of cutting off right at the Texas border um yeah no Texas will be mostly fine uh there's going to be some rip currents more than likely you know we're going to have some of those Coastal impacts you know with that but uh but whenever it comes to it you know like storm surge and and stuff like that you know we do have a little bit of storm surge potential for like the northern coast of Texas but one to three foot is fairly mild um it's definitely not anything like the five to 10 that we're expecting at landfall so but yeah so that's that's that's that but yeah Texas will be fine um Texas is not really expected to have really much uh anything big going on um Louisiana by far is going to take the heaviest and secondly Mississippi uh feels so much better now that the heat wave is over gotcha that's that's always nice absolutely um but anyways but yeah so that's that's the latest surges and then once again here once again for the people just joining this is the rain map once again y'all uh Mississippi you know the yellow here this is a four to six inches of rainfall Southeastern kind of Eastern side here of Louisiana we have four to 6 Ines as well uh panhandle of Florida uh we are talking um you know good still still four to 6 Ines of rain out there you know we're going to see a good amount uh then of course uh the tornado probability as we mentioned here too um if we hop over to uh the day one Outlook again for you guys uh regarding today's tornado potential uh we do got ourselves like I said a slight risk today uh for severe weather um the greatest potential for tornadoes is going to be in the brown that is a 5% chance of tornadoes happening within 25 miles of an area so if you're in a brown you have a 5% chance of toric activity within 25 miles of your within a radius of 25 miles uh in your area so 5% chance uh like I said including Eastern uh Louisiana Southern Mississippi Southern Alabama uh Panhandle Florida like Pensacola is included uh we got like Golfport we got mobile um and of course we have like New Orleans uh you know those areas included there in the um you know like I said in that 5% chancef for tornado so there will be a tornado threat today remember that because uh these tropical systems they increase wind shear uh on the right hand side is what we call the dirty side of the system uh that is where we have you know the strongest helicities which you know basically like rotation um potential um you know a lot of lot of strong wind shear a lot of um a lot of the moisture as well as well as a lot of the instability all of that's in the Eastern side uh of the system and that's why we get tornado activity in the Eastern side because that's where uh that's where all of that lies okay so anyways um but yeah tornadoes will be a concern keep that in mind as well um let's see here thank you always appreciate your coverage no problem my friend glad to help out uh let's see it looks like we're getting we ain't getting rain in South Haven is pretty good yeah I remember hurricane Ida that was a nightmare I remember Ida too I remember Ida it seem like the ey names were The Crazy Ones Ida Irma Ian Adalia was pretty bad too I mean we had some pretty nasty ey name storms in the past of course this is not an ey name storm of course this one is uh Frank um but anyways but you know so that's that's that uh and like I said for the people who's just joining who wants to know what what it's doing right now uh like I said currently it's a category one it's an upper level category one sustain Winds of 90 mil an hour We're gusting up to 115 Central low is down to 976 mbars um overall so that is the current vitals uh of the storm right now um by 2 p.m. by 2 p p.m. this afternoon uh we are forecasted to be uh sustained here of 100 milph with Gus up to 120 um models are estimating the pressure to be in probably the lower 970s by the time we approach here um obviously you know direct correlation we don't really know quite yet but probably the lower 970s maybe upper 960s according to some models there upon landfall so we'll have to see uh and of course like I said current satellite imagery here's the latest infrared there you can see that you know got some pretty good convection uh going on in some of the western sides here of the storm you can see that obviously you know some of those uh those cooler tops there are starting to really pop up over like Louisiana uh we're starting to get some rain out here but you you can see there's some heavy convection on the western side of the storm right now uh if we take a look at the water vapor scan you can see there's a lot of dark there's a lot of black here this is showing dry air there's a lot of dryer starting to infiltrate um under the storm and a bit of the western side um as of now it's not as much of an issue it's going to be a big problem um once you know the storm starts digging Inland you know once we start digging Inland that's when the dryer is going to really start to Pile in on the bottom side of the storm um kind of you know getting rid of that thunderstorm activity on the bottom um once we get Inland there and you're going to notice um you know not not as much activity on the bottom part of the Cyclone once you know with thunderstorms uh once uh the system starts digging Inland or is this located uh Storm's located just south of Louisiana here um and just east of Texas so Storm's right in here um now for a precise measurement uh of of where the storm uh is currently at from uh say a given area from the landfall point uh we are about uh let me pull up hold on let me do this real quickly reflectivity I need to grab the core okay so there you go there's your core the storm there you can see uh so from the quote unquote I uh to the point of landfall we're still about 160 m off so when it comes to like I said landfall today uh it's going to be afternoon a late afternoon evening uh upon landfall like I said between 5: and 8:00 p.m. is kind of when the models are uh suggesting that landfall um and like I said it's going to be either an upper level category one um or a lower in category two at landfall either or not much of a huge TR drastic dis sorry not much of a huge drastic difference either in a lower Cat 2 or upper cat one um you know the winds are only 5 10 mph probably different so you know either or I mean there's still going to be a lot of impacts once again 5 to 10 foot of storm surge six to 8 inches of rain at the landfall site um there's yeah there's a lot of lot of issues um see probably no of your weather anym more Tado season ended a few months ago uh main T season yes but obviously we have second spring coming in we quote unquote Second Spring uh when we introducing a lot of cooler air back into the country that will spark off some more of your weather typical fall behavior um but anyways my friends well if you guys have any questions once again uh feel free to let me know we're probably going to wrap things up uh here soon this morning like I said we're just doing a little bit of a morning update for you guys uh I wanted to go live for you guys this morning to do uh you know quick little update a weather update here uh for you guys um like I mentioned we're going live this evening so make sure you tune in we'll have a stormchaser uh we will have live cameras we will have um live radar live infrared satellite visible satellite water Vaper satellite Ian everything we really need uh will be available to us and we'll be live between 5 and 8 subscribe if you haven't turn on those notifications that way you guys do get alerted whenever we do go live um that way whenever you get that notification that's when the L landfall is going to uh going to start kicking up there absolutely but uh if you guys have any final questions before I roll off here feel free to let me know um I'll be more than glad to uh to help you out so here's latest radar like I mentioned you can already start to see some of that rain really piling into Louisiana um so far they've already gotten like a half an inch of rain in some spots so not a whole lot right now but like we mentioned when this is all said and done we're going to get quite a bit of uh uh you know quite a bit of precipitation out there you know once again at at the landfall site you know near like Morgan City Franklin area uh we're going to likely see probably a good six to or sorry you know yeah 6 to 8 inches of rainfall out those regions what about mountain time um so you guys are two hours behind so 5 to 8 Eastern is when we're expecting landfall that'll be uh three to what five yeah three to five um wait no I I can't I can't math I'm sorry it's it's too early but anyways anyways um I think it's three to six yeah three to six Mountain Time let's see flying trampolines those videos are always hilarious yeah that's that's that's a big problem you know make sure if you have anything that's loose outside please I mean obviously you can't bring a you can't bring a trampoline indoors but you can anchor it uh which like I said I hope you guys have already prepared for the storm here because we're kind of uh kind of you know this thing's right on the doorstep right now so you know it's a little uh I mean I wouldn't say it's fully too late to prepare I mean cuz we're still not seeing those tropical storm wars uh sorry tropical Force wins yet but you know um your time is running narrow time is running thin um so if you if you have anything loose outside that if you're in Louisiana right now anything loose that can get blown around easily bring it inside now do not hesitate do not wait till later there is no later is now or never okay so get it done get it done uh just get it over with and um cuz like I said you know first of all you don't want to lose your property man you don't want to you know damage your property risk losing your property not to mention it could become a hazard to others you know people outside which I hope you're not outside during the storm but you know um objects can can go flying you know your uh outside patio furniture could could go Airborne it could run into your neighbor's window I mean there's just nature crazy um so yeah just just bring it indoors man bring indoors uh let's see here um yeah it's 3: to 6 pm. mountain time uh let's see what do microwave satellite imagery showing for Francine um we here let's actually we'll take a look at the um the uh the satellite imagery here for you guys um let's see so I don't necessarily have that I have infrared but I don't have microwave um I don't really use microwave too much um on my streaming stuff but I can show you visible uh water vapor and I will show you everything really so let's let's hop over here um ignore that little tile in the top right that's for for models in the time but anyways I mean like I mentioned you know the core of the storm's like right in here we have a lot of heavy convection on the west inside pretty good convection going on there you know still showing some strengthening signs um when it comes to the uh water vapor um you can see like I said this is a lot of the drier air up in Texas this is going to start getting pulled into the bottom side of the storm later this afternoon um and of course like I said with um you know uh you know the true color uh view um you know with sunrise and stuff like that going you can you know still pretty much see what we were just talking about for the most part um see all right that's fine yeah I mean I'm sure you probably have a way of looking at yourself so just Mr Barrel let's see here uh looks like it's tracking more East to my eye um let's see here let's hop back to radar here uh so the core is like right in here um let's see so the core it looks like it's no it looks like it's on track looks like it's kind of going to the to roughly like the Northeast here now it looks on track to me all right my friends well uh like I said going once going twice any final questions y'all might have throw them down in the chat here if you're new to the channel consider subscribing leaving a like it'll be greatly greatly appreciated uh once again we'll be live this evening for live coverage on the landfall um like I said we're going to be having ourselves um stormchaser we have Omar going out there today um so we're going to have stormchasers live cameras we're going to have uh radar satellite imagery models um really everything you need to know um hurricane hunter data uh everything um that we can literally have to track this thing we're g to have so make sure you subscribe make sure you leave a like be greatly appreciated and um yeah but once again final final questions for the update like I said this just you know just an hour update this morning uh for you guys uh regarding you know what what what's it doing you know what's it doing right now and stuff like that so if you're just joining us uh feel free to rewind the live stream go back to where we started um and then and um like I said I'll see you guys later on this afternoon okay see I do not like that yellow blob uh it's a 20% chance right now table toop here let's take a quick peek at it before we roll off here um so he's talking about another system here we I mean I think we should watch it for sure um see so you can see that oh my uh my monitor turned off for a second it does that um so there's there's Francine okay so there's the storm there that one goes Inland and then another uh low develops maybe hitting North Carolina let's see here yeah it's it's growing it's growing traction it is growing traction according to the GFS I mean so this is a several models ago this was 06 from yesterday 06 Zulu 12 Zulu 18 Zulu zero Zulu 06 Zulu and you can see it's trending more North and increasing in intensity showing maybe a potential tropical Cyclone maybe tropical storm we'll have to see um let me look at other models you know it's never good to bias to one model uh yeah I mean also look at this so this is Euro uh Euro does show the system here too maybe depression status based off pressure I obviously can't be for sure but um still shows that that low and maybe potential tropical system icon on the other hand uh do zero Zulu here I don't think icon really supports it yeah no yeah icon really doesn't support it too too much so it's it's mostly just the GFS in Euro CMC maybe um interesting so CMC shows a lot of rain involved but not necessarily a strong low um there's a bit of differences but yeah main GFS and Euro do show maybe a depression or maybe a storm forming we'll have to see um we'll keep it on it it becomes a problem you know we'll talk about it so don't try not to worry about it too much uh Anthony thank you for subscribing man appreciate it appreciate it uh let's see af35 Noah 2 getting intercepts get to the middle of the storm uh yeah let's hop back to the Recon real quickly um oh yeah you're right they are flying back into the back into the core here so there's there's your plane see it there's your little icon so they're yeah they're they're sweeping back down towards the core last Scan they got 976 millibars that's what the pressure is at now we did have a nine we did have a 972 miar range though that pressure could have been inside of an updraft though I mean that would have only changed the pressure by about like two mbars roughly though but still yeah lower than 976 but that's current pressure from the NHC so that's what we're going with um shoot I did not mean to exit that here let's I'm going to squish my screen for you guys it looks a little funny this way uh let's see here um oh yeah look at this here's our drops on data this is actually something I really want to look at so that that left hand side like we mentioned we got to watch out that dry air is going to start getting to it let's look at sounding seven uh drops on sounding seven um yeah the more Gap your D points are from your ambient temperature the the lower the humidity still within reasonable threshold though so the dryer is not really getting to it much right now let's try eight yeah yeah dryer is not really getting too much of it right now what's up Deborah uh aircraft observations like 974 mbars estimated uh mslp see this one shows same thing yeah like 9975 is 74 is um yeah they also got a 976 and 977 they're going back around though going back around so yeah the pressure is down in the mid 70s right now uh once again sustained at 90 mil an hour um which makes it an upper level category one storm um overall let's see my local news hasn't jumped on it on the hype train yet so I think we're good yeah it's tabletop like I said don't let it get team man um that system I mean we'll we'll monitor it like I said if if it comes it becomes a problem then we'll talk about it but you know for right now uh you know we need to focus on uh you know what's going on uh with this system here okay all righty everybody well that's going to go and wrap up the update here um like I mentioned we you know we went live for about an hour just to kind of go over everything if you just joining if you want to go rewind go ahead and Rewind back um see deorah says uh just checking in uh see how everything's going Category 2 wow I hope everyone is okay I'm wondering what the weather's going to be like in Northern Illinois North Aurora if you can um so Northern Illinois is not going to really be affected by the storm here to be honest with you the storm here let's let's hop back over here um so for Illinois um the remains I mean obviously according to GFS doesn't even make it up there before kind of completely falling apart um yeah I'm pretty sure most models agree on that too like Euro here Euro yeah storm just dies by the time it even gets near though Southern Illinois might be able to see a little bit of rain but that's kind of where it dies out is like right there in like Southern Missouri and Southern Illinois but yeah no debor you're good nothing big um going on like I said we'll we'll watch out for this guy over here at some point you know NH has a 20% chance on it so you know odds are not anything super crazy right now yeah overall 20% then of course we have the two other areas up here um we have that big uh 90% chance this one's getting right of the form here see here we're going to pull up the North Atlantic hop you back the radar or sorry models uh let's see here oh that's interesting yes so that's that's this guy right here the one that picks up accordin that's EUR ow uh GFS on the other [Music] hand kind of has it remaining a fish storm and not really gaining much traction yeah likely due to a lot of dry a intrusion on the left hand flank kind of preventing that system not not enough moisture really we'll see we'll see all right guys for real though we're heading off now thank you for joining we'll catch you all later this evening once again between 5: and 8:00 p.m. that's when we're expecting landfall so we'll go live as soon as the landfall begins um so like I said make sure you hit that subscribe button turn on notifications it be greatly appreciated we'll have stormchasers later on today live cameras radar satellite imagery observations everything really we're going to need to know so we'll have everything available to you guys so once again consider it be greatly appreciated and uh all righty everybody once again thanks for joining hope to see you guys later on don't forget to leave a like on your way out and most importantly share this with your friends family uh cooworker neighbor especially like I said please help get that word out there so that we can help keep you guys weather aware throughout the day um with the system and and obviously future systems as well all right guys once again thank you for joining hope you guys have a wonderful rest of your night I'm Andrew hope you all have a great day and we'll catch you in the update or the live stream later on see you later guys take care be safe out there see you later on peace out