Tropical update: PTC 6 in the Gulf of Mexico moving toward Gulf Coast

Good morning. I'm meteorologist Cheetah Kraft tracking potential tropical cyclone six. I am expecting this to become tropical storm Francine today and then hurricane Francine either late tomorrow or Wednesday morning. Latest track from the National Hurricane Center. Notice this is the 7 a.m. advisory. The track is basically the same with intensity. The intensity really did not change overnight but the track did shift east. That's the change that happened overnight. So no longer is eastern Harris County, Galveston and most of Chambers County in the cone of uncertainty. It did shift east. So just the extreme eastern portion there of Chambers and then pretty much all right into the Texas Louisiana border. So even though the track did shift east, it is not time to let your guard down. Ok. This is a very fluid forecast. Things could change over the next 24 to 48 hours. So I want you to be mindful that it is time to continue to monitor the forecast. We're going to update you and let you know, hey, if there are any changes with track or intensity, but you need to at least check the weather update once twice a day for the latest information. Now I'm gonna show you what our future track is showing. Midday tomorrow. Notice showers and even a few thunderstorms along the Texas coastline here here locally will be possible. This is all outermost tropical bands from what will become Francine. Watch how Francine really starts to gain intensity as we get into Wednesday. In fact, the greatest impacts across southeast Texas here locally will be on Wednesday. I think the heaviest downpours strongest winds, uh elevated surf, think tied around 3 to 5 ft even along Galveston Bay. And again, watch how the outermost bands continue to hug the Texas coastline even though the centers of circulation is still offshore. Now, even if this holds steady and stays the same as Francine nears the Louisiana coastline, we're still going to be looking at wraparound moisture and some elevated surf and some strong winds from Francine. Now we will be on the drier, calmer side. But with that being said, again, can't let our guard down and we're talking about a tropical storm potential hurricane in the Gulf. We watched this very carefully. Ok. Model data is lining up just the same with that easterly trek from the National Hurricane Center. It is pointing more to a Texas Louisiana potentially Louisiana landfall by Wednesday. So impacts from a potential tropical cyclone in six area wide rain expected Tuesday evening. And then throughout the day on Wednesday, Wednesday, we have our highest impacts, but we still need to watch this very carefully for tomorrow surf. So coastal erosion, strong winds again, that tide expected around 3 to 5 ft. We will be watching that for all of our coastal areas. You need to check the forecast at least once to twice a day. Changes to track very possible over the next couple of days, flood risk for your Monday non existent. Today is really a nice day, maybe a few showers along the Gulf, but that should along the coast from the Gulf. But that would really be about it. Let's dive into Tuesday though. Notice on a scale of 1 to 4, we're under a slight risk that yellow is a level two. So Chambers Galveston portions of southeastern Harris County, Brazoria, Matagorda County, all under that slight risk to see high water spots. Wednesday. This does start to shift a little further east including Liberty County, uh Chambers Galveston and eastern portions there of Brazoria. But the best flood threat do you see the red? That's a level three out of four in Louisiana. And that is on Wednesday. I wanna show you a broad view. So the big picture here with Francine, especially Wednesday. So this is a snapshot of the broad view for Wednesday is a big part of Louisiana and then notice all of the yellow here as well. That's also indicating the risk of high water spots. Now, this is another takeaway about Francine, Francine after landfall is going to move we're not expecting that to stall. But even so it's, it's coming right in time with the peak of hurricane season, which is tomorrow, September the 10th. So it has to be expected. Things are ramping up. Let me have a closer in view of our future track throughout the day. Today, we keep it really mostly quiet, you know, maybe a 20% chance for a few coastal showers. That would be about it overnight. It's about the same, not out of the question, we could have an isolated shower Tuesday in your midday. But overall we keep it pretty quiet even for a big part of the day tomorrow. Look at all this convection though offshore. So this is 10 a.m. tomorrow morning. Then as we get into, let's say midday through your afternoon. Ok, an isolated shower to an isolated thunderstorm, very possible, but a lot of this still remains offshore getting into Wednesday. This, this is the day with the highest impacts. Now notice overnight hours into Wednesday, we're already starting to track these tropical showers and thunderstorms could produce some very heavy rain locally and this is what could lead to these high water spots. Look at some of these deeper colors here popping up on our track that continues. Now again, how close Francine gets to the coastline that will also depend on who sees the rain. I mean, in big areas north of town may not get that much rain Tuesday or Wednesday. But we have to keep our guard up. I mean, we're talking a tropical storm, potentially a hurricane Wednesday 830 in the morning. A lot of this again wants to stay offshore and hug east, but things could change. So keep your guard up. Make sure you're staying close to the forecast here over the next couple of days. We do have weather impact alert days for Tuesday and Wednesday. That's the highest chance to see either high water spots, heavy downpours, strong winds, elevated surf and then it's quickly out of here. By Thursday, rain chances really drop and we start to trend drier for the upcoming weekend more with potential tropical cyclone six or what will become Francine on khou.com.