Theory Of Thing s10 e7 On Evanescence, NFL Openers, Spoon Bowls and market Insights

what's up what's up what's up it is James will here the theory of thing investment podcast you are all about it today it is a fantastic day get straight into it this is the the One-Stop shop for all of your podcasting needs if you need uh Finance nonsense we got it if you want NFL nonsense we got that too if you want NRL nonsense well we've got that as well today happy spoonball day to you and also happy NFL start of the Season day as well joined by Heath Moss of H1 investment Heath how are you now very well mate very well it's been it's been a good week it's good back good to be back on the podcast yeah you you left the tag on your Muffet I just I just put it I'm actually G to put it back in the Box this is how fresh if you want to know how fresh I fresh and fan there doesn't get any fresher than this okay a big shout out I'm James will um managing director of barl Pierce's wealth management team and like I said uh it is the 6th of the 9th wow September I I literally wrote August on something this morning I've just realized 2024 mate so our good friend Derek remember we had Dereck on the show from Derk Hathcock and I don't know no I think this is okay this is part of the part of the part of the experience we had Derek on the show talking about logistics he's the guy who has to move the the Las Vegas Raiders for their away games you know get 180 people to various parts of America and even overseas too sometimes into hotels into anyway great guy we met him when we're over at Allegient for the NRL good friends if he came on the podcast and remember I made that I I ended the thing to say well you know I'm looking forward to seeing some merch just jokingly we got a box full of shirts all sizes fantastic lanyards we got lanyards baby look at this okay and we got need season ticket legit legitimate hats here my friends nice hat nice hat I'm ready to go I'm ready to go so that's why the tags are still on it I'm actually going to put this one back in the box cuz someone else is going to want this I I took I already took one of those um fantastic there you go fantastic yeah happy NFL happy NFL start of the NFL season to you my friend and may your team do as well as you are doing as well I know I think they they're kicking off as we speak I think basically now uh what is it is it Kansas City bore yeah City KY versus the Ravens I've got I got Kansas City to wibar more than three yep we'll see how we go um you know actually Sports bit I mean not the we're not promoting sporting or anything like that this is just purely just saying that that that one of the offers that they had was bet on one of the bet on a team to win the Super Bowl you have to bet a certain amount I won't I won't go too specifically into it and every game that they win if they win you get a $5 Free Bet and I'm just like you know that's I'd have a go with that we're not advertising Sports we're not advertising Sports gambling I can't stand the stuff but it was just an interesting thing it's just okay I bet i' take Kansas City to win the Super Bowl and then get five bucks they're going to win five games right so you know that's 25 bucks and fre bits yeah I'm I'm going to put that on the uh the 49ers and what they won 12 last year I just say we win another 12 this year and yeah 60 bucks of free bets in your your pocket he are you are you equipped are you equipped with the I finally finally went and got it wakey wakey uh the berry flavor you sent me fantastic I got to drop it in the glass and I'll have a have a drop on three or after three on three or after three three two two three nice all right beautiful let we'll let that the evanesence flow through you remember evanesence from evence who was from Amy Lee that's right Wake Me Up Inside did anyone did anyone end up waking up inside oh mate she I saw them live once about 20 years ago course you did of course you did the cre and uh she has the best female vocals I've ever heard it is she is phenomenal she um cuz after they went big after their first couple albums they they put out a few other albums and they didn't do so well she ended up doing um because she went off to be a mom uh she ended up doing nursery rhymes on YouTube and singing nursery rhymes on YouTube so um but yeah they're back touring now I think I think they all all these 90s 90s and early 2000s bands are back touring you know it's it's coming back it's it's it is coming back and I heard a really good theory saying there's a reason why the 80s is so reminisce for it because apparently there was some cataclysmic event world the world ended at that time and everything we've been living is sort of a simulation of us harking back to that time it's it's the it's it's the craziest bat poop conspiracy or whatever theory that that we're going those that's why those eras are just so you just H back to those Zas right Amy Lee yep I don't know what that song was about it but every time every time I pop one of these Essence I say evanesence Wake Me Up ins W me I still don't know what it means anyway but that's good um she also did a good song with uh uh c um called um broke broken I think it was broken she did a do see that was very very good very popular probably as popular as wake me up theide so yeah uh but yeah yeah how did your father's day go M she was absolutely fantastic like uh down in Melbourne because the eldest had a this is the things you got to do as dad you know you you don't just get to sit there and just and just and just drink a beer on a on a Sunday the she had an audition for the ballet I won't say which one but anyway she had an audition for the ballet she and that was down in Melbourne for some reasonab so the wife the cheese yeah I know it's down down southide it's in the uh you're lucky if you get to S kill mate but it's um it's out it's out it's in it's in the sticks right and so the wife was the cheese yeah the cheese said let's just get on a plane all go down all of us together she can do the audition we'll go on somewhere for lunch she picked the Sand ringham hotel oh my God it was Sensational I had the biggest steak big glass of red couple of carton drafts um and they gave you a glass where they would like what what name do you want on it and Michelle's sorry the wife cheese the cheese uh she said uh make it James and I said no make it Jimmy and there's someone there actually engraving your name onto a wild turkey fantastic whiskey glass s just a great a great day and I saw part of a football game a Suburban an aford just a AFL Grand Final under 16 div 2os y I want to play I want to play I don't know if I can they're going to kill me because also I've got to take it easy because I didn't actually get the permission of this this guy kicking this goal Al it looked like he didn't care if someone had recorded him and put him all over the place because mate it was an absolute screamer of a go that I happened to record it was on my Note it was on my Note it's on my Twitter account it's it's like I don't want to make it too loud and proud of the whole thing but mate the the watching a grand final a Suburban Melbourne AFL under 16 div 2 Grand Final that was actually one of the most Joy the wind was blowing like I saw a chicken the wind was so hard I saw a chicken laying egg twice mate that's how that's how hard the wind was blowing down there and and then I tried to get out of Melbourne the next day and she it was even worse I had all of my meetings were canceled on on Monday it was just me sitting at the miter with my laptop going well I need to go home I was luy to get I was lucky to get out of Melbourne as it was man that that wind was something Savage at the beginning it was it was how was your how was your dad day uh very very quiet I was as as you know I was on last week I was very ill um and uh I was just recovering on the weekend because it took so much out of me and uh yeah we just stayed home we had a lazy one got gifts like chocolate and pajamas and that from the kids got a couple of little board games to play with them so we were playing board games most of the afternoon so yeah it was it was very enjoyable though because normally we're running around the place and my dad and other dads and stuff like that but uh yeah it uh it good just to be able to sit home and relax and uh just enjoy the company of My Wife and Kids so yeah it was great couldn't have asked for what sort of glass are you using there I mean dad's everywhere and and and Happy Father's Day Bel lated Father's Day I did I did call him obviously and I sent I sent the old man uh Peter everyone knows Peter whe pretty famous pretty famous dude around Twitter circles controversial not really um anyway dad my hero uh I sent him a book about it was a Bob Dylan was breaking down to Bob Dylan songs fantastic really just sort of broke down he's a huge Dylan fan he loved it it was fantastic job done usually I send him booze but I went to there's a really nice place it's where I do OS yeah they have a like it's it's everything it's a gift it's the best gift place it's got records record players books coffee table books those little card decks that are games with games yep posters CDs anything you know they've got art it's it's just a classic gift shop you go in there if you can't find something for someone in there then you don't know who you're shopping for um you can pick anything at random and you're going pretty well so um yeah so that that that was that's where I got the Dyan book um I can't remember what the name of the shop is but it's over at bangaroo where I um where I do OS so I did OS walked out of there thought you know I'm just going to go and find a not sp there interesting I'm drinking I'm drinking my wakey wakey out of a West Tigers Grand Final luncheon 2022 I can guarantee you that the West Tigers were not playing in that Grand Final they were doing more lunching than Grand fining that that way tonight tonight at 6:00 is going to be one of the most historic events in NRL history this is even bigger than the Grand Final Campbell toown stadium has been sold out for a week as the Tigers the West's Tigers take on the eels of parameter um at Campbell town where dreams go to die anyway in the spoon Bowl it's a stra it's a straight Winner Takes not nothing the loser gets The Wooden Spoon the winner comes second last it is the biggest it's the biggest event of the Year we're doing an event for it um and a lot of places are we've tried to get amazing we've got the event we've got a bunch of tigers and and E guys that are going to be there as well because we're big Tigers fans we're also big footy fans too it's after work it's it's it's good session get together you know 6 o' and and and do we do the spoonball session there isn't a tigers or or Paramount person that hasn't scored some sort of a speaking gig at this thing on radio or TV to talk about the spoon it's so funny just going n every single radio station has got an eel or a tiger covering this thing it's it's the biggest game of the year to not lose the comp to not lose the comp that's what they're playing for fantastic fantastic hopefully my boys get it done so my wakey wake just a normal glass I got the berry one so I'll try it now this is the first time I've tried tried wakey wakey so hi welcome to the club my friend Wake me up inside Wake Me Up Inside that's nice hey I'll pass pass that on to George Z mate they love to know it Z Zack Bowski is the is the is the evanesence uh Guru he's he's the head of the mosh pit um it's lovely it is good yeah do you know and I've actually I've actually been told so we're shooting the breeze just like wait are you can I talk about that on the podcast and I've had yeah that that the the heads of well next top that I can say the gel caps the wakey wakey gel caps are not in the Evan Essence form mhm um have actually been selling above they've been beating budget you s sent me some of them too the C is it the caffeine ones yeah yeah the caffeine caffeine yeah apparent I'm just like wait that sounds Market no no not you can talk about it um that they have been exceeding expectations apparently people are preferring to pop the Jael cap as opposed to tuning to the evence it's it's just funny it's same close to a company like well has just been phenomenal to actually like what are people reaching for shopping Behavior shelf space y height of things chus Warehouse the whole situation there just blows my mind with the CH Warehouse phenomenon I found them in my worse and uh they were probably just above eye level on the Shelf there one one rung above eye level so that's that's pretty good pretty good that is I went into wths at where was I I was in the westfields down at Southgate orever sort of between Morin and and Sandringham and they were at like bottom level at Shoe level so why would we always put them down there on on Ultra sale it just it's just such a weird thing about shopping retail the retail consumer it's it's it's it puzzles me you're we're puzzling people fickle Bunch yes yes yeah and we'll get to that in a minute in the GDP report ah hit me all right M it's time without much further ado it's now time for Heath M ofm Investments with Market RP no worries let's get it going we are a we are a financial markets podcast after all so we talk a little bit of markets anyway um so got the SPX on the screen S&P 500 uh been a been a terrible week for the S&P 500 Down 2 and a half% we had that had that big uh big big 2% down day on uh Tuesday was it yeah um their first day back from Lab Day first day back from their summer holidays so um and we all know it's Splash across every screen that September is a terrible day terrible month for the US markets uh last since 2017 I think the S&P 500 is averag around three and a half% performance negative performance and the the NASDAQ is around 5% negative it got that done it got that done on Tuesday just more or L just like in in two days that's your average September done y that's that's where it hit see it's done nothing last two nights uh everyone is basically sitting on their hands waiting for this uh the job starter tonight out at 10:30 p.m. EST if you're around n nfps you know m is that what that is yeah okay okay hopefully that'll hopefully that'll wake it up inside just you GNA get off the uh the 90s grung rock all right uh so yeah that's out that's out tonight everyone's waiting on that because that's basically determine if it's if it's good if it meets expectations 25 basis point cut by the FED in a week or two uh if not then it could be 50 basis points and Stoke ref recession fears um so always said 50 50 will be a signal and we had David Scott on the podcast last week and he's just like is if it's 50 it did do a job filling in for you big shoes to fill um if it's 50 it's 50 for a reason and you don't want to know what that reason is going to be so hopefully that's not the case but hopefully it's not strategy carry on sorry so I think the market let me have a look at the expectations Market's expecting about 160k jobs added and unemployment to tick down to 4.2 from 4.3 so if it hits that uh I think the markets are all good and we gone away if it's not then uh yeah we're going to have some pain I think which would be pretty pretty standard for for September um but we also we had like the ADP jobs print out last night that came in well in under expectations 99k versus 145k expected worse than 3 years that print um but there is there is little to no correlation between the ADP and NFP so not worrying about that but that was offset by continuing continuing an initial initial job jobless claims that was better than expected jolts came in earlier in the week uh which was worse than expected so you can see real mix of data still what we've been saying for the last few months real mixed real bit of softening and deterioration in the um the economy but nothing nothing to really worry too much about um the the com so the the com guys i i t into the com podcast great overview of the night before um or even the day before I'm a huge Tom patoski fan you know may for for long used to work we used to work in similar spaces um at comp anyway without going into the details uh what was I talking about something good oh yeah and and they just like it's not it's not cataclysmic and it's not calamitous it's it's it's sort of just a stabilization of the data that's sort of what they were say so just everyone needs to be mindful of that that's that's that's what's important but to but also the other side it happens little by little and then all at once so I think the market is afraid of that all at once moment where a month ago I think the market thought that's that was the all at once moment and then it didn't didn't materialize so again we're doing this it's deja vu because again earlier in the week that helped uh that that set off the selling was the ISM Manufacturing uh pmis which were terrible um they were better than last month but still didn't meet expectations came in around 47.2 uh versus 47.5 which is contract but new orders was the worst in over 12 months so that spook the market um and then you had the um nvidia's uh department of justice has slapped a antitrust lawsuit on them or looking to they're investigating investigating it it came out it came out that that had happened that was a factual a factual Market moving statement that the doj had subpoenaed Nvidia yep and it smashed so it was 89% off whatever yeah so reports yesterday new news reports yesterday saying might have been a bit might have been a bit Hasty yeah yeah I'm not sure what they're going to find I mean from all reports uh in the analysts in the market it's just a superior product is what the natural selection by the market I mean they they a bit like Intel in the ' 80s and 90s came up with the CPU and were basically the dominant Force there until you know competition kicked in um these guys are the dominant force their technology is just far superior than anyone else um it's not like they're holding you know stopping competitors from competing it's just their product is just it it is it is the thing to to to be using if you're using an AI so I'm not sure they'll find yeah because like am I know AMD are working on um because AMD have their own AI chips as well and they're working on uh because when it all comes down to the base of it the the programming language used for these chips is called cuda and Nvidia has the proprietary rights to that so maybe they find something there uh to to to they maybe they have to open that up or something like that because AMD are actually making their chips but also having have to make something else to to make sure their chips can work with Nidia gear as well so um yeah if Nvidia if Nvidia found that they're that they're only making their stuff that can only be used by certain people maybe there could be a case or something I I don't know the details I'm not going to go down that path yeah me neither blo Bloomberg and S had back to back we've got both on our screens in our office we've got Bloomberg over there because it's got Jama bashet so that's over my eyesight because she does the afternoon thing and I she's amazing amazing very smart um just extraordinary person and over there but the other one we've got CNBC that's on the other side they've had backto back people just talking about Nvidia with their speculation nvidia's going it's like guys how many people know about this okay and how many times you have to have to tell anyway that's on the 200 day what happens what under nothing good happens under day my friend nothing good 200 90 bucks if it got down there I would be a massive accumulator of of n i I've said it before and that everyone probably knows how how bullish I am on AI and uh the space and these guys are the the space everything is built upon what they have have provided the market so I am all over these guys if they get down to 90 just waiting for some consolidation here before entering making sure the fall you know don't catch a falling knife um I think what is it be the be the be the up not the whatever do the catch the rip not the what he say what do he what is C the rip not the dip that's that's thanks yeah so uh so that's that's basically what's been driving markets this week um we got the 10year has come off substantially uh around what are we 18 basis points there about 109 basis points still factor in for cuts this this year in the US which is probably you know if jobs come in all right this month then it's probably 25 basis points too much um so the market has coming come off there we can talk talk a little bit oil oil's had a bit of uhit of oil oil's all over the place I'm going to pull something up that I just favored while you do that I'll quickly quickly chat about it so oil we had uh oil recover recover a little bit about a week ago on the back of Libya halting production um so obviously that's you know a bullishness for oil because it restricts uh Supply uh then OPAC came out and said hey we're going to um increase production in 2 months anyway and that basically offset everything that Libya was going to happen in Libya and then all these Global pmis and the China situation came in over the last week and there seems to be a massive a bit of a Slowdown globally in the global economy and that saw oil tank like it has um that's what's happened on my in my view um and even though like last night we got a really good inventory is number for oil in the US um I think it was almost negative 7 million barrels when versus uh no I can't I have to stop sharing I'll stop sharing and then you can share can you share there we go there we go I can see it now well look this is going back on S congratulations guys it's been it's been eight so you can see that yeah are we uninverted are we we have uninverted the 210 is now not inverter IED anymore congratulations fantastic well on we did it there was the comment with it it's been 790 days 790 days eh 790 days uh the longest yield curve inversion in history which started in 2022 we are now no longer inverted or at least for now fantastic what does it mean it means hey you know the oh yeah back to you thanks mate steal all the screenshot the uh mate it's mate someone someone uh someone woke it up inside someone's woking the two10 up inside anyway get on this so the stupidest the stupidest were the way to go obviously you know the whole thing the whole 210 ah it's recessionary predicted recessionary it's been inverted for 790 days or whatever I say 290 790 790 yeah the longest stretch ever where's the recession yeah where's the recession leowski yeah I I I don't I don't think we're gonna get one um I I yeah yeah anyway I I'll cover a bit of the Aussie Market because uh we finished um we finished our reporting season last week a little bit um it was than expected um overall earnings came off around 4.4% which was about 1% better than expected um Tech and Healthcare oh actually we actually had a net beat of around 3% 3% companies net beat um their earnings expectations but now that that is down from around 7% in the February season and 12% last year so less companies beat then the last two seasons but we're still beating which is good uh news and was on the forecast Front around 23% um of companies uh who reported downgraded their forecast so um that's slightly higher than the average but it also August is also peak downgrading season so we shouldn't get too many more from here um and overall it was a fairly buoyant uh not buoyant but better than expected season it and Healthcare probably did the best in terms of Beats uh resources uh and energy were probably the worst um as expected Banks uh were mid-range actually Industrials saw the best growth industrial saw 9% of earnings growth um this time around for the last year so that was good that's about that's about the US has done across the board isn't it that 9% exactly you'd almost say there's a global theme here would you wouldn't you you know it's almost like there's a bit of correlation there but uh tell that to my non-existent offset account pal two economies out here anyway someone's going to wake that thing up inside that's for sure Jesus Christ sorry come on let's wrap it up let's yeah we we just G to start playing Eva in the background down down about one and a half% for the week on the xjo uh but yeah look looking good apart from that Gold's holding up very well um up about 1% for the week um and I think that's all I got I'm I'm done that's it that's it for the week we're just waiting on those jobs jobs numbers big week next week if they come in soft I still think gold gold is a buy um copper copper is sick something and which means if if everyone starts to to dis copper I can't feel my right leg I'm not going to lie to you I cannot feel the back of my right leg all the way down this training is starting to really is really getting to me I just realized I actually can't feel it I can't feel that down the right side of my leg um if anything happens if anything happens to me tell my wife hello um the end up in a wheelchair because the stupid bet um copper copper is sick if everyone starts dissing it and saying oh it's look it's g off it's going crazy then it's a great time to buy because remember copper is is the longterm there's not enough of it you know that will and if you own copper you know your kids will your kids will thank you if you have big long chunky dip dip bought couple things um should we should we close with Bu The Dip by Unis Wong can we pull that up oh God I'm I'm not playing that I'm not I'm not you got a bu no she will yeah that's right YouTube will shut us down that's oh yeah they do that we've had that happen to us before Unice Wong has released a song anyone who knows Unis Wong she's a crypto that crypto spooker yeah now exgirlfriend not not that someone should be labeled by who they used to go out with but she used to go out with um and um yeah she's she's released a song and it's she's very popular in crypto circles she's very popular in the crypto circles if she says if she says that there is a coin that is going to go in a certain direction then and when everyone buys that particular coin and it goes in a certain direction then she's she's more right than she's wrong it's um it's a weird it's a weird like I I just don't understand how she gets it right so so often gonna get sued aren't we I'm not touching it I'm not touching it anyway so she's got a song it's called by the dip and it is an absolute grade a banger um I cannot recommend this song enough it'll change your world um get it today watch out Amy Lee watch out Amy Lee watch out Amy Lee Unis Unis swong AKA unicorn is uh climbing the charts it's a s I gotta see if we can get it so anyway we got to play it later um all right mate that's do we have any footage tips I don't have anything yep yep yep I've got uh we got AFL finals unfortunately Port lost last night got fled last night yes unfortunately just s so sad about that just it just breaks me up it breaks me up inside breaks me up inside soort P Port just went that second half out for us mate not today finals the last four finals P last four finals record um accumulative record is the worst in vfl AFL history it is are they just they're just one perennial one and duners is that is that what happens they just they're home and away specialist that's about it it come September they might as well be joining the demons in the slopes so uh but uh yeah I've got uh you're not going to like this I've got gws to beat your swanes at $22 i' take that i' take that yep and then got I got no problem with that I think this's a flaky best got opening weekend NFL I got 4 9ers my 49ers on Tuesday morning they got Monday Night Football to beat the spread of 4 a half versus the Jets at home paying a $1.93 or I can they'll do that easily um mate I got to I'll just pull an NRL one out of here look um City roosters to be C roosters to be CRA okay beautiful yeah that's all right City Roost be Newcastle go Coast uh they're picking the Gold Coast for this one yeah okay take take the Gold Coast take the tians take the Titans um goal Coast plus n and a half we'll get you Buck 90 um I don't think the Newcastle have got much of a finish on this one so there you go take the take the Goldies with n and a half start Chuck it into the roosters um and that'll roosters will pay you shorts but um there you go you got two bets got a B he you out yep done I'm buing the D I gotta go I gotta go by the dip I got to go buy that record right you got to buy the dip forever it goes anyway um thank you very much youve been joining us on the theory of thing investment podcast all the fun of games um but a very serious Financial Chit Chat that we have any more information R chat to Heath at HLM or R chat to myself at bar Pier capital and we'll be more than happy to help you out with anything that you need uh if it is to do with waking you up inside or not uh thank you very much to the wakey wakey people and I think that that's a new song wakey wakey up inside thanks very much that H good day to everyone who's listening as well thanks and peace with you have a good weekend bye