We have won our top MLB pick both
on Monday and Tuesday. Can we make it three in a row? We’ll find out soon.
On Wednesday September 4th, I am betting a game in which linesmakers believe both teams hold a 50%
chance of winning (approximately). More precisely, I am taking the Milwaukee Brewers to win
straight up against the Cardinals.
Let’s start with the starting pitchers. St. Louis
will hand the ball to Sonny Gray. He owns a 3.96 ERA, which is fine, but things haven’t gone so
well in recent times. If you consider his past six outings, he’s allowed 23 earned runs in 35
1/3 innings, which amounts to a 5.86 ERA. Ouch!
More importantly, did you look at his
road/home split? His ERA on the road stands at 5.62 versus 2.63 when pitching in front
of his home crowd. That’s a huge difference! Unfortunately for the 34-year-old veteran,
his team will be the visiting club tonight.
The Brew Crew will counter with Colin Rea. He owns
pretty good season-long stats, while being 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in his last seven outings.
The Cards are pretty much out of playoff contention (they hold a 1% chance of
reaching the postseason right now).
On the other side, Milwaukee has a 10-game
lead over the Cubs in the NL Central division, but that doesn’t mean they have nothing to play
for. In fact, they are chasing the Phillies to grab the second-best record in the National
League, which guarantees a first-round bye. The Brewers are just 1.5 games behind Philly.
Milwaukee has been tough to beat at home (41-26 record), and they’ll be motivated to avenge
yesterday’s extra innings loss against those same Cardinals. Give me the Brewers to
prevail tonight at American Family Field!
The clock is ticking to grab
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