Michigan Football 2024 Schedule Preview & Record Projection

what's going on YouTube this is sg1 sports and you're watching our college football channel going to start our schedule preview projected record series here and it is early and this is just a projection but looking at the schedules and just kind of looking at how the teams were uh last season and and what what they have coming back going into this season we can give you a a very early projected record again based off of that schedule this m as a Michigan team that you know it feels like this is probably going to be a bit of a a rebuild year Los Jim Harbaugh and and several coaches and so many players especially on the offensive side uh looking at this team again offensively I think they're really going to take a step back um mostly losing JJ McCarthy but other pieces in there as well um six offensive linemen I mean this team loses a lot on offense and then you look at defense again I think they'll still be pretty solid but you would expect a bit of a step back there as well so it doesn't feel like Michigan right now is going to be a top tier team this year but uh again it's early as we go through the offseason we may change our minds after you transfer portal additions and things like that but uh before we get into the 2024 schedule let's look back at 2023 here was a schedule from 2023 and it was a really easy schedule for Michigan non-conference games against East Carolina UNLV and Bowling Green you look at their games you know it really doesn't matter who they would have played out of the West because the West was so bad last year but you can look and see that they played Nebraska and Minnesota U they got a stayed at home played Purdue Purdue was probably the worst team in the Big 10 West so it was just a really favorable schedule and they were able to get through it without a loss and then of course when the games really mattered in in the playoff they were able to get a couple of wins and win a National Championship but it's going to be a much tougher Road for them in 2024 not just because of all the roster turnover and and this team just probably not going to be as good as they were last year but uh just because of the schedule and here is that schedule before we go game by game let's look let's let's kind of break it down we'll start with the non-conference they'll get Fresno State Texas and Arkansas State so a couple of fairly easy wins and then Texas Texas is going to be a very tough game but the good news is you get that game at home uh but still that is Texas is going to be a big time non-conference matchup and Michigan has been really good the last couple of years but they have had really easy non-conference schedules now this year maybe they take a step back plus you add in a very tough conf non-conference game uh that right there is is going to be tough you look at the home games they do get those three games all at home like I mentioned and they get five conference games at home USC Minnesota Michigan State Oregon and Northwestern so five at home that means only four Road games actually only four Road games on the entire schedule so a favorable home schedule again with five conference games and all the non-conference games at home but on the road they will play at Washington and at Ohio State so a couple of really tough games there on the road tough places to play and and then Illinois and Indiana not bad so overall when you're just talking about home and away this is a pretty favorable schedule for Michigan but when you add it all up and you look at the schedule it's pretty tough so they'll start off with Fresno State there on August 31st to kick off the season then they'll play Texas in week two September 7th and that is going to be just a massive game uh Texas is probably going to be favored but playing at home Michigan you give them a shot in that game for sure then again we'll see what this team looks like by the time we get to August and September um I I yeah I feel like they have to make some additions in the transfer portal we'll see uh but Arkansas stay there on September the 14th and then they'll play USC so their first Big 10 game is against USC and that sounds funny I realize that but yes USC now going to be in the Big 10 along with of course Oregon UCLA and Washington and they'll play two of those newcomers USC and Washington but after USC they'll play Minnesota on September 28th and they'll play them at home so the whole month of September they have five games in September but all five of those games are at home so they don't leave to go on the road until October the 5th and that'll be a game against Washington a team that they just played the national championship but Washington is in a very similar situation to Michigan they have a lot of roster turn turnover a new coach and so even though that's that's on the road and it's going to be a tough game you feel like Michigan has a chance in that game and so you never know they could start off 6 and0 but it'll be tough USC and Texas going to be tough games even though they're at home and then of course Washington a really tough place to play they get a byee after that they'll play Illinois next on October the 19th they will play them so they have back-to-back Road games here but they have a bye in between so it's not like it's back toback weeks uh they get Illinois on the road we'll see if Illinois can turn things around this year uh Michigan State there on October the 26th at home rivalry game should be a good one there Michigan State how are they going to look hard to say right now now then they have Oregon at home on November the 2nd so they play arguably the two top teams in the Big 10 in the month of November with Oregon and Ohio State but good news again they get Oregon at home then they'll play Indiana on the road November the 9th and then they get a late bye a byee after that game before Northwestern and we saw Northwestern last year uh really impressed and we'll see what they can look like this year if they continue to get better but that's a home game that's good news and then they'll close things out with Ohio State on the road November the 30th and of course that'll be a really really tough matchup there and so when you look at the schedule again not you know it sets up well as far as the home and away but it's a tough schedule in terms of just the teams that they play really is there a tough stretch though I mean they don't have it's it's split up really nicely there is no tough stretch really on that schedule at all um look at that Northwestern game potentially is a trap game we've seen them kind of struggle a little bit at times in the past in in the week before Ohio State uh and Northwestern could be a feisty team but all in all again it sets up in in a good way in the fact that all their big games are kind of split up you don't have any back toback and they get a lot of those big games at home but it is just going to be a tough schedule because of the teams that they play um in 2024 here were some of the projections from 2023 for Michigan you see the 12-0 record in the regular season our projection so when we did our projected record like you're about to see here in this video uh that had them at 11-1 my prediction was 12-0 I did pick n Michigan to win the National Championship last season Athlon had him at 11-1 the over under was at 10 and a half so high expectations for Michigan last season they lived up to those expectations and again just like we predicted they went 12-0 and they did move go on to win the national championship so again here is the schedule for this upcoming season and we're going to go through and do the projection now uh I have a formula that I use this is again not an official prediction this is not our predictions won't come until way later until after spring and uh this is just a projection based off of this formula I kind of put all the teams into tiers uh just based off of how they finished last season and what they have coming back so Michigan for example they were a tier one team obviously last season but they lost so much that they did drop to a tier two whereas like Oregon and Texas and Ohio State those are still tier one teams and again it it has a lot to do with last year and that's why this is very early but you can look at some teams like Michigan and Washington and see that they're losing their head coaches and losing a ton of talent and you can kind of drop those teams a tier so let's get into it here we'll start with the uh the scale that we use it'll be in the red if it's less than 20% in the green if it's over 80% orange will be 20 to 29% blue 71 to 80% those are games where I feel like the team is going to be favored by double digits um and then 30 to 39 61 to 70 those are games where I think it'll be about a 6 to 10 point spread kind of in there and then the 50/50 games those are games where I think it'll be less than a touchdown spread and again just putting the games the teams into the tiers that I put them in it comes out with this formula so we'll start with the easy wins Fresno State Arkansas State should be games that Michigan should win even with the roster turnover uh they will be favored by uh two touchdowns or more probably closer to three touchdowns both of these games you know these are respectable group of five teams so I wouldn't expect Michigan to go Michigan to go out there and beat them especially Fresno State in the opener by 30 points but they should clearly be favorites in both of those games but really that's the only gimme games uh when you look at the rest of this schedule games in blue now we got Minnesota Michigan State Indiana Northwestern Indiana would be in the green if that game was at home but the Home and Away definitely plays into my formula and U that game being on the road does drop it into Into the Blue I think they'll be about a touchdown favorite in that game and again double digit favorites against Minnesota Michigan State and Northwestern all of those games coming at home so those are games that Michigan should win it would be very surprising if they lost but I'm not going to say that those are guaranteed wins um in those four games so let's move on next to the games where I think they'll be favored by about a touchdown we got USC and Illinois and this is based off of how USC finished last year this is a team that is kind of tough to predict right now uh you can look at some of their issues and if they don't get those fixed then yeah I think Michigan would be favored by about a touchdown but I really feel like USC has a chance at least to be much much better and this could wind up being more like a 50/50 game but it's very early again we do this very early in the season before spring and we we'll see again what USC looks like that that one is is definitely one that could change Illinois that one could actually go the other way I could see that being a game where Michigan's favored by more we'll see what this Illinois team looks like based off of you know Brett belma's track record and what they did a couple of years ago you expect them to be a decent team and the game is on the road but that one might wind up actually being more of a game in the blue so those kind of going in two different directions as we move through the off season potentially we'll see and then uh you look at games where I think they're going to be an underdog I think that's going to be Ohio State I think they will be about a touchdown Underdog eight-point underdog something like that it's a rivalry game it's the game I know they've won in a couple years in a row but it's still it's going to be tough for for Michigan when you look at the two rosters you look at um actually three years in a row by the way but anyways you look at the roster for these two teams and Ohio State is they just have they're in a much better position they have a much better roster right now they don't have all the co coaching turnover um and I realize Chiron Moore has been at Michigan but still it's it's a little bit different than having Jim Harbaugh there and it just Ohio state with what they bring back they should be a better team plus they're playing at home so that's why again Ohio State for me is a tier one team Michigan is a tier 2 team and this would be a 50-50 game if it was at Michigan because it's on the road that does drop it there into the yellow so that means Texas Washington and Oregon are all games that are 50/50 type games these are games that I think could really go either way and if they're going to have a special season they're going to get back to the college football playoff they're going to have to win let's say they lose to Ohio state they're going to have to win two of these three games more than likely which is going to be tough Texas and Oregon again I think are going to be better teams than Michigan but they're at home so they'll have a chance and and I think Michigan has a chance to be better than Washington but that game's on the road so these are the swing games the games that could determine the season or that will determine the season in my opinion and then you've got USC in there which could be a tough game as well uh so when you put all this together you actually get a projected record of 8 and four which is a pretty big drop and no that doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to lose to Texas and Washington and Oregon and Ohio State and you can't look at this and say Well they're going to lose every game that that's close to a 50/50 game well no you have to look at the games in the blue the odds would say maybe they slip up in one of those games USC and Illinois I would say they're probably going to lose one of those games and then you win one or two of the 50/50 games so you average it all out and you did do get an eight and4 projection with the formula that I use now if I was going to project this right now I'd probably go with nine and three uh between Texas Oregon and Washington I think that they uh win one of those games potentially and lose maybe two and then Ohio State's probably a loss but then again you have to look at USC that's a game they could possibly slip up on and so if you're looking at Texas USC Washington Oregon those four games they split those four and they lose to Ohio State they could be 9 and three so I would again if I was just using my brain to do this and and give you a very early prediction I'd probably go more with 9 and three but the formula that we use does put Michigan at 8 and4 so a big drop from 12-0 to 8 and4 do you guys agree do you disagree about the Wolverines here with a very early projection let me know your thoughts down in the comments below