coraki so where are we today Steve all right Katie we'll look at it from two Vantage points here first nationally this is the average of all the national polls coming out of that Labor Day weekend Harris 48 Trump 45 three-point Advantage for the Democrats they're happy to be ahead they're happy to be in a different position than they were when Joe Biden was their candidate of course he was basically trailing Donald Trump all year but for Republicans they's solace in these numbers too because Donald Trump is no stranger to this kind of a setup labor being a little bit behind that was the case in 2016 he trailed Hillary Clinton by five points at this point won the election 20120 he trailed Joe Biden by high single digits at this point didn't win the election but came awfully close in the Electoral College and the Electoral College is the next level we'll take a look at this thing from this is where it's won or lost obviously seven core Battleground States you see them in Gray here we're going to be returning to them over and over the next 63 days but there's all sorts of paths for each candidate here at least potentially let's just show you the simplest and most direct for each and we'll start with kamla Harris uh the polling in these states obviously it is close it is exceedingly close in some of them but it's been a tick better for Harris and the Democrats in these three in Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania all three of them went for Biden in 2020 and Harris's simplest path is probably just winning these three states let's turn them blue for the sake of showing you what that would mean in terms of the the Electoral College there you see it and what does that give her 270 exactly the magic number of electoral votes probably her simplest path now from the Republican standpoint what would Trump's simplest path be well they'd obviously have to win one of these three the one that they're most invested in is and certainly right now spending extremely heavily here if Trump were to succeed in flipping Pennsylvania take a look at what that would do first of all you see Harris would then have to compensate even if she had Wisconsin Michigan she'd then need to take at least two of these Sun Belt states that's cuz Pennsylvania is the largest of the Swing States 19 electoral votes but then Trump's path would be reasonably simple from here what would he have to do if he gets Pennsylvania well North Carolina it's the one Battleground State Trump already won in 2020 he would need to hold that and then Georgia the margin was just under 12,000 votes Trump did win it in 2016 if Trump can win it back in 24 along with holding Carolina and flipping Pennsylvania he'd be the one sitting at exactly 270 electoral votes so again all sorts of different paths here I think you see the simplest for each candidate and I think if there's one big takea away from this first among equals when we talk about swing States is Pennsylvania simply because with 19 electoral votes it's larger than any of these others and if you can get that if either candidate can get Pennsylvania the path from there for them each becomes very simple so Pennsylvania of all the swing States Looms probably as the most crucial right now keep hearing that Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Pennsylvania if I had a whiteboard maybe I'd write that down three times uh St