Mondo Duplantis has already broken his own world record an incredible 10 times his latest a staggering 6.26 meters at the celesia diamond league in 2024 but how high can he go before he retires today we'll explore this question through statistics probability and new rule changes in the sport of pole vating let's start by examining Mondo's performance over the past few years from 2020 when he first set a world record at 6.18 M Duplantis has been on an almost linear trajectory reaching 6.26 m in 2024 but human performance typically follows a logistic growth curve which means after a rapid rise there's a plateau this curve represents the steady increase in men's pole vault over a century where the rate of improvement slows down as some of the best athletes reached their Peak historically most elite pole volters reach their maximum potential around the age of 27 to 30 Duplantis is 24 now meaning he could still have several more years to push these limits we'll take into account that as Duplantis gets older and closer to his Peak the rate of improvement will slow by analyzing his past performances we estimate that his maximum potential height could range between 6.3 and 6.35 M in this graph we can see that in 2024 he hit the 6.26 M Mark and this is followed by a steady increment showing that there is probability of Mondo exceeding the 6.26 M Mark breaking World Records becomes less likely the closer you get to physiological limits we can model this using a wble distribution which is commonly used in analyzing extreme values like pole vault records the wble distribution is a statistical tool used to predict how long something will last before it fails it adjusts to different failure patterns it can model items that fail early fail at a constant rate or fail more often as they age using this model we estimate the probability of Duplantis vaulting specific Heights there's a high probability he can clear 6.30 M A moderate chance he can break 6.35 M and only a small chance of hitting 6.40 M or higher but remember athletic records sometimes defy the odds in September 2024 World Athletics rolled out significant updates to pole vating rules at the freeborg meet among the most noteworthy changes is the introduction of new criteria for measuring the highest elevation point of the valter's body during a vault under the new rules the focus has shifted from Simply clearing the bar to measuring the maximum height the valter's body achieves above the bar this change means that for a vault to be deemed successful the highest point of the valter's body rather than just the bar itself must be above the bar height the goal is to ensure that the Athletes Performance is accurately reflected based on their highest elevation during the jump this rule change allows for a more precise evaluation of the valter's ability to surpass Heights for example if a vter like Mondo Duplantis reaches a higher point during his vault even if the bar is slightly Disturbed he can still be credited with a successful clearance as long as his body's highest point is above the bar this adjustment aims to reward athletes for their skill and Precision in achieving Greater Heights however the new regulations also introduce stricter limits on the number of attempts per height with fewer attempts allowed volters will need to be even more precise and strategic in their attempts this could impact record-breaking opportunities as the pressure of fewer attempts May influence performance overall these updates are designed to push the boundaries of pole vating while ensuring Fair competition by focusing on the valter's highest elevation point and adjusting attempt limits World Athletics aims to enhance both the excitement and the accuracy of the sport these changes could work in dup's favor allowing him to push beyond the projected 6.30 to 6.35 M range however the flip side is that fewer attempts might lower his chances to break records now let's look at the physiological and psychological factors pole vating requires a perfect balance of speed strength and technique as athletes age they typically experience a decline in fast twitch muscle fibers which are crucial for explosive Sports studies suggest that Duplantis Peak Physical physical condition could last until his late 20s after which his performance May gradually decline but pole vating is also a mental game athletes like Duplantis have incredible resilience which may keep them performing at the top for longer than expected we can predict that Mondo Duplantis could realistically Vault between 630 and 635 M before he retires there's a small chance he could go beyond this potentially hitting 6.40 M especially if technological advancements or rule changes work in his face whatever the case one thing's for sure Mondo Duplantis is already a legend in the sport and we can't wait to see how high he flies next how high do you think Mondo can go let me know in the comments [Music]