will polls underestimate Donald Trump again welcome to the real cler quick take in 2016 and again in 2020 National and state polls consistently underestimated Trump support this was especially true in Wisconsin in 2016 polls underrated Trump's finish in Wisconsin by whopping 7.2% four years later pollers again missed badly in the badger state This Time by 6.0% in Pennsylvania pollsters under estimated Trump strength in 2016 by 2.8% and in Michigan by 3.9% 4 years later the RCP average was spot on in Pennsylvania while polling in Michigan was better but still underestimated Trump's performance by 1.4% polls in Arizona and Georgia have been the most accurate over the last two cycles gauging Trump support within a half a percentage point on average Nevada is the only Battleground state where polls overestimated Trump's support on average in 2016 final polls showed Trump with a slim lead over Hillary Clinton she won the state by 2.4 points in 2020 the polls in Nevada were spot on if you look at the current RCP averages and apply the average margin by which poll's underestimated Trump's support in these states in 2016 and 2020 Trump would move ahead of Harris in Wisconson Michigan and Pennsylvania maintain small leads in Arizona and Georgia and fall behind Harris in Nevada get all the latest polls at Rook ping.com