NCAAF WEEK 1 TOP 25 LIVE | First and Goal

what's going on guys thanks so much for tuning in wwise network we're back hey first live show and who knows how long it's been quite some time since we've gone live new setup new familiar background yeah I moved you got a little glimpse into the backyard there I got I got maybe I'll do the green screen thing at some point I'll add some maybe change some camera angles you know usually we got the one that records right here we got the one straightforward here Mike everything in tag um college football top 25 live this is the show I've guessed on I got a couple cool guests lined up for later this year couldn't quite get anybody on with the Labor Day weekend I got a couple I actually got a former NFL player who's going to be joining us uh I believe week six he will be here with us so he's uh got some other commitments but you guys will be surprised he's he's a great guy been talking to him in some SL to his DMS uh no no no homo and uh we got to start bullshitting conversing he's doesn't really do pick thems but uh how can you say no to a guy that's taken multiple inl snaps guy that's carried the football a few times so uh he will be on and leave that name as a surprise but um if you guys got any games any questions and ask about we're gonna go down the top 25 show so kind of a foresight in this listen guys a lot of huge lines a lot of huge you know not a lot of not a lot of inner division in EXC in conference play and um I I don't really I keep it rather light here I mean not a lot of you got a lot of teams that are playing very there's not a lot of Marquee match ups not a lot to bite off of not a allow to say hey these two teams are rather parallel so we have something to go off of here not a lot of previous history there was a couple but uh as for the most part guys the first couple two three weeks I really advise everybody keep your foot off the gas you don't got to get it all the first couple weeks I got one play this week uh it's on tonight if you guys haven't clicked the video hey we're up over 100 and something views on the thing we're cruising right now so um picking up steam full pick up a lot of steam so if you haven't watched that video yet it's free to watch fre play discord's free links in the bio and other than that uh let's get the show under the way here guys temple Oklahoma University this is the game we're talking about here first game uh this is gonna be just top 25 it's all it's gonna be top 25 that's all we're gonna go with nothing outside of the top 25 so far we're gonna just keep it at that and um if you I got I got three games outside the top 25 I'm gonna talk about that I that I probably will add a position on with some success but other than that guys this is all top 25 and it's going to be for Friday and Saturday Sunday game and the Monday game we'll have a separate video for that just like I said Prime Time games we have separate videos for but we're going to do 125 show we're going to try to do it at noon Eastern Pacific time Friday Friday Wednesday Wednesday Friday Friday Friday Friday in continuity after that so let something comes up got a bit got a couple things going on but Temple head in Norman Oklahoma Oklahoma minus 42 and a half over under 57.5 what's there to say here Oklahoma covers these big spreads you know last 10 games with Fair by four touchdowns or more 7 and3 ATS 7-21 to the over 10 and0 straight up they're not going to lose the game last year Arkansas State minus 36.5 steamed them minus Kent State 33 they got they actually won by 30 let the let the foot off the gas in 2022 and Oklahoma listen let's have a conversation about yeah they lost their quarterback but they returned virtually everybody else ton of Talent on the offensive side of the ball ton of receivers ton of running backs ton of talented defens side of the ball is Oklahom going to be good they're they're ranked in the you know they're ranked where they're ranked for a reason they're 16th they're expecting a little regression maybe because they got that tough SEC schedule they've got uh next week they don't really have a particular tough opponent either so you don't really have that look ahead spot this could be Temple Super Bowl but I didn't really want to come in here and spin my they play Houston next week so they don't really have a challenging game until the 21st when they play Tennessee so what do we want to talk about here what what side would you go on here I think I just L the point you know it's j kind of Johnny chalk and that's fine 42 and a half seems like a lot Temple is bad going to be really bad and I know to say well how can they get worse they they were so bad last year brought in a couple of brought in a couple of um transfers they lost a lot of talent they're only return five on offense five on defense not a lot of significant you know power there they got their running back back their tight end and their receiver then none of them were really particularly good at that on defense they returned some of their defensive line but here about Oklahoma's offensive line offensive line is St football so I I wouldn't necessarily be too excited to get on this game in any direction I don't have position on I think you just lay the chalk here with it I can't really see a scenario where I can't really see a scenario where Temple comes out and you know keeps this thing competitive now Stan dren is in year three I always love coaches in year three I feel like that's the year year two and three is where you kind of find out what a coach should be made of but for all Ty of purposes they probably think this game is Out Of Reach the one thing I have noticed what I have noticed is it feels like these teams that have these large spreads are getting off to slow starts and they're not performing well maybe their first opening Drive Des scripted Drive they're doing okay but it seems like they're kind of trying to feel their way into it kind of get comfortable second and third quarter they explode for saw UCF saw with Utah saw a couple other teams now each individual team is their own you know each individual team is their own thing you know so you can't really necessarily say that it's congruent throughout play football it's just something to know but for me guys I think you slay the chalk here I wouldn't bet it if I were you but you know we're here to talk about the games you do have a trend that back the seven and three last 10 on on large spreads over uh on large spreads over four touchdowns the only two times they've laid 40 in the last five years 40 or more the last the three last three times theyve laid 40 or more the last five years minus 525 over Western Carolina 76 nothing minus 475 over Missouri State 48 nothing minus 47 versus South Dakota State South Dakota yeah South Dakota 7014 so three covers three easy play the one thing I will say though this over under is at 575 which if you want to talk about this team historically look at these over unders with these large spreads before 73 58 66 66 62 72 63 76 69 so that over under is significantly lower than what you'd expect for a temple for for a Oklahoma big heavy Point favorite so kind of just keep that a no that's enough to take me to get me off it there's one more other game tonight it's not a top 25 game but I almost got to the window with this guys FAU Michigan State Michigan State Jonathan Smith Aiden Charles the Oregon State coach coming over taking over the Reigns for um oh I can't remember coach bad bad boy but um he's taking over the rigns and you know he's got a high hope and Jonathan Smith I think is a good enough coach I think he's a decent coach I think he's a lot like a Mike Riley per se think he gets a hot hip hip hoay he does the most with the least but this Michigan State team is absolutely gutted they they don't return much of anything he's bringing in his quarterback so he is bringing in some you know some familiarity with his offense it's going to take a little bit of time though Michigan State as a whole doesn't return a ton for8 last year and I over St Johnson Smith is a home favorite double digit home favorite not that great great he was 15 and three ATS as a home favorite when you get those in the double digits not really his cup of tea he doesn't cover a lot of spreads I do like this Michigan State team moving forward I do like Jonathan Smith forward I think Michigan State's gonna do fine but I don't think it's gonna happen in year one I think you're missing out too much talent you are returning 10 and your 11 defensive starters though and jonan Smith wasn't a good defensive coach but I think you're just missing too much in offense but you're not returning hardly any lineman and I talk about this I like teams that return Why and on the flip side of things you got Florida Atlantic Tom Herman there I I I think this is too many points guys I think Florida Atlantic I'm not going to say fla Atlantics GNA come in there and win this game I'm not saying that at all but I'm saying Florida Atlantic's a good school they're a good program and if we're expecting this game to be sloppy and be and be lowc scoring then I think you're gonna see I think you're gonna see this thing be tight and if you're gonna give me two touchdowns in a tight game I think you almost have to take it Florida Atlantic Tom Herman Tom Herman is down there and it is second year so you do have a little you know four and eight last year not the greatest they return a lot of Defense eight starters on defense uh cam fer is back at quarterback familiar with the Tom Herman offense as you guys know Tom Herman he's he's a he was a good coach was down to Texas didn't really live it to the Texas Standard but definitely was there as an away dog he is eight and3 ATS this is his spot guys this is the spot that he flourishes in in the ATS I don't think Florida Atlantic is going to go win this game but I'm close and and the line's telling us a story as well you saw this thing open up jump up to 14 the second to touch 14 D dripped right back down to 13 and a half currently sit at 13 told everybody in chat if you want to pay attention to moves pay attention to Friday moves Friday's when the Books open their limits significantly more you can go from getting one diamide five times as side to 20 times a sign that's when you see the money that comes in that knows what they're doing and the money's coming in on FAU and I believe just because of the over under 44.5 I think this is going to be a pretty defensive heavy game you see both teams kind of feel each other out a little bit and like I said Aiden Charles a good quarterback Jonathan Smith's a good coach but it's gonna take a couple years to get this thing right and Michigan State still is just a little upart so I'm at not at the window with it but this would be the second look for me today taking FAU plus the 13 a lot going on here um in my opinion to make this right I think Tom Herman's going to be a good coach here I think Florida Atlantic's got a lot going on so I would take FAU plus 13 I don't think they necessarily win the game but I do think it is the right side let's move on to Saturday guys uh Clemson ug ug laying 11 and a half over under 48.5 I like the under in this game simple um I don't think Clemson offensively is gonna be I don't think Clemson offensively is GNA be able to keep up with Georgia's defense and I and I think if Clemson wants any chance to stay competitive it's gonna have to be on the def of defensive side of the football Clemson as we know um DAV Sweeny doesn't play the transfer game you let's get kid kids out but he doesn't bring them in and so for that reason Clemson kind of lacks in my opinion Georgia you're King until you're not I mean you're laying 11 and a half against the top 25 team that's a bold statement in my opinion right there uh you know this is a neutral site for all intens purposes I wouldn't say it's really neutral it's in Atlanta so pretty much pretty much in georg's backyard Georg is fantastic in these neutral site games it is steaming towards Clemson a little bit and I get it I get the appeal of taking Clemson here but you know I think the problem is Kirby Smart with some time to prepare as a dangerous human being he really is I don't think that you want to bet against Kirby Smart when he's given you know couple two three four five weeks to prepare for a game you a whole offseason and the guys you know the guys other the other world in Georgia guys they just they're just too good they got all the talent in the world they've got everything I this Georgia team is GNA be king until they're not you know we can talk we can talk about Clemson they're favored to win they're favored to win the ACC now that Florida State lipped up and I understand you know they returned their whole offense for the most part and that's for Clemson that's about as good as it gets but I still think that they lack the creativity on the offensive side side things I don't think dbos Sweeney the game has necessarily passed him well it kind of actually has because he won't play the Portal game but they lost a lot of defensive players they only returned four Defenders so how do I how would that make sense to play the Y here well you see the steam coming over the under it's that 48.5 I like to read into the lines guys you reading these lines that 48.5 to try to get those guys to buy that seven touchd you know I I always tell people look for the clues you see like the 13.5 home team minus 13.5 it's like oh I can buy the 13.5 you see the the team come in oh 20.5 oh yes three touchdowns you see those certain numbers and to me it's bait to go to the over I think little psychology a little psychology works a little bit on this thing so I I think that the over Runner to me I think this is an under position we know both teams very good defensively we know George is going to do what they want offense to an extent but I believe Clemson recruits well enough on the defensive side to keep this game close and come close would be the only way Clemson I think keeps this game close is if it's a defensive battle so I would look to take the under here uh full disclosure I'm not a great over under better I will fully disclose that I'm more of a sides guy so um as for a side it's tight guys I I I you know that that that right there very easily could see Georgia I could very easily could see Georgia win this thing 357 something like that blow the doors off them so I think that there's a possibility for that so I'm not going to go to either side here if you gave me a free play on the side I think you I think I would absolutely I would think I'd have to Absolut Chase is in chat in Gainesville is a [ __ ] dump oh Miami Chase um I if you gave me a free side I'd probably lay the points with Georgia and that's a little chalky sure go ahead so um next on the docket Penn State taking on West Virginia Penn State minus 7 and a half 50.5 the over under I like this under too as well I'm just G to be honest West Virginia returns a ton of talent West Virginia returns so much and pin stank with James Franklin as you know um great in games at times until it turns November December and they kind of just go melt off the second they have to face any kind of any kind of um challenge or whatnot so um you know this is gonna be a great game I I think it's another game that you know I've had a guy say he's really all over West Virginia I get you know initially when I first saw this line at 10 I was like that's that's a pretty strong pin State Line though if I'm not honest to go into West Virginia and L 10 especially a West Virginia team that's supposed to be a lot better than they've been the last you know the last this is the best West Virginia team they've had not since Pat McAfee but you know maybe since the Pat White days so uh they high expectations in West Virginia you know a lot of people are saying the sleeper team to go and win the Big 12 I could see it I could absolutely see it they've go a ridiculously tough schedule an absolutely brutal schedule Penn State at Pittsburgh which is never the backyard bed never easy Kansas at home at Oklahoma State Iowa State Kansas State at Arizona at Cincinnati Baylor UCF Texas Tech it is not an easy schedule so I do think that when this team has these home games they've got to get a chance to win they can return virtually the whole offense and uh you know their defense they're lacking some production of it but they brought in some they brought in some really highly touted um transfers in that are going to fill the gaps more specifically in the secondary and I think when you're playing Penn State like that's the right kind of team to have a weak secondary against Penn State does return maybe the best quarterback in the Big 10 this season I get that but you know Garrett green at quarterback senior year West Virginia he comes back the whole offensive line comes back I absolutely love it when these offensive lines come my number one thing my number number one thing in college footballs how many in early first three weeks how many offensive line do you have playing from last year under the same coach's scheme Neil Brown kind of on the hot seat maybe you know I mean he does enough just to kind of just to kind of stick stick you know just kind just enough to kind of keep himself out of trouble um one thing about Neil Brown though home dog six and seven ATS he is not he is not in a home home dog is not his cup of tea it is not where he functions well so I I do kind of look at that and I think this line has run enough that you might start considering buying back on Penn State maybe if I was playing with your money I probably would buy back with Penn State I'm not playing so I'm not gonna buy aside either one and I know um guys full full disclosure we're to top about these games I'll let you know when I bet something PL and simple there's a there's how many how many teams 126 time 12 so if each team plays 12 there's 30 130 college football teams now 130 times 12 we've got 1,600 games roughly 1560 roughly football games a year yeah uh more than that with bulls or anything so call it 1600 and change 1650 games we'll have plenty of action it doesn't all need to get done and it doesn't have to happen in every week either some weeks we'll have five plays some weeks we'll have one play so just gonna happen so um Penn State though like what what are we talking about you know Drew all's back kids good quarterback I think James Franklin probably the most offensive forward coach they've had in quite some time return Seven Stars on defense Penn State's always been defensively I think I think we all know that I think um you know there's no there's no secret there with that um as for this game right here I think that you're now a buyback part for Penn State and I know pat mca's down there and pen and West Virginia is going wild and you're seeing um I get all I get it all I get I get every angle it is to take West Virginia and in fact West Virginia's on my short the places that I want to travel to I want to watch a football game because the atmosphere but I just think B's purposes you're going to see a very lowc scoring Affair and once again that seven and a half very easily could C Penn State win game by double Vegas doesn't miss a lot of or oddsmakers don't miss a lot of opening lines it opened at 10 and a half now it did get steamed down I think it's equal steam public and sharp money and I think now that seven seven and a half you kind of have to have a conversation about buying back on a pen State Penn State is a good football team early in the season uh Iowa State ill Illinois State Iowa Iowa minus 22 and a half over under 40.5 uh what do I got do I can we can we play something on this on bada is there do they have I would just look at taking something very simple and like taking taking Illinois State's first half team total under it's going to be0 five probably I guess I gota look at FCS extras uh I don't even think that that won't be out sorry they don't they don't put those out until the day of the game so I can't play that but regardless I think that would be like the direction I would look is to take something on the Illinois State Side Iowa's Iowa man you know Ling 22 and a half you would say wow this team's goingon to go out there and smoke him yeah they smoke him defensively but Iowa's still this Iowa team whatever reason it's just who they are and they're never going to change it's just it's just it's just the way they are so I I I I would never lay points with Iowa specifically 20s like that to me is ridiculous their defense is going to be great no matter who is's in there they're always going to be great you don't have to worry about that um they do return 10 offensive players so maybe this is the year they can get their offense going a little bit Kade mcamera back a quarterback but what are we building on here is Kirk France gonna change the you know change the world and say hey this is um you know now now we're an offensive team probably not I don't think so so I definitely wouldn't um lay the points here I think it's too many and that's tough to say too because it very well could be a 21 nothing game and look completely dominant almost they could have you know 93 and anounce and Iowa just does the damn thing they do wait till one second one second clock run Dive Dive left dive right outside first down Dive Dive left three yards Dive Right seven yards dive or six yards then Dive Right and then then and then you know sweep right two yards 12 yards in three plays and you've just wasted two minutes two and a half minutes it's it's crazy what this team does and they do have Iowa State next week so there is the potential look ahead you know that's a state fair game and I I I I I think how much do they really want to show if they do have something left if they do have something cooked up on offense how much do they want to show so for me I'd actually probably take Elma state in points as crazy as that sounds I think 22 and a half relatively low I think it's low for a reason I think oddsmakers understand that you know this Iowa team doesn't score L points it is curious to me though so 22 and a half youd indicate that you know if there's 18 points or excuse me 22 and a half that means they score what's illino States over under is got to be six and a half maybe three and a half so the line the over under is indicating that the over under is indicating that Iowa is going to explode offensively or Illinois States offens so um staying off that altogether so I you know you would see 373 would get you there so I I think that the line is short short for reason Iowa probably holds a lot of cards to their chest this week doesn't show a lot they got Iowa State next week so I would take oh state in the points and I don't do a lot of FCS stuff but I think I think that's actually pretty sharp look I think it's I don't think you see anybody take and not that you always want to be on the side of of of of of opposite of the public but I just think there sometimes being a contrarian can be quite profitable so next Chattanooga Tennessee Tennessee minus 30 I don't and Tennessee's Tennessee you know they gonna come out here and they're gonna throw the ball 60 times and they're gonna run up score or under 56.5 Chattanooga's fine I guess for SCS whatever you know I don't not for me guys there's a lot of better games going on this weekend so I don't really have opinion on it SP about 4 seconds looking at this thing said cool so they're expecting they're expecting Tennessee to score 40 some points okay they probably do and um we can we can pull up the charts here see what Tennessee how Tennessee functions is a four touchdown or more favorite we'll go five touchdown um let's let's humor ourselves let's humor ourselves I don't have a lot of opinion on this game Tennessee at home as a favorite 28 to 60 pulling it up here let's see um yeah 10 and0 s and three seven and3 to the so under the hypo era he is uh one two three four and one he did not cover against Austin pay last season on September 9th so early in the season did not see the success I don't know if you're if you're playing it I'm laying it I'll just be honest I'm not I'm not playing it I'm not touching it I think that you know there's a lot more action to be found in these games um let me pull up my notes Here on Tennessee for the season Tennessee is predicted I got Tennessee as to go right here new quarterback return yeah they don't return to [ __ ] so it'll be a f out game you know what maybe it'll be a good maybe it'll be a good show um as a home favorite Hy bus 12 and five nothing there for us no nothing there for us um if I'm playing I'm laying it but I I think there's a lot better play so sorry very uh very very captivating stuff there Oklahoma State South Dakota State minus 10 Oklahoma over 53.5 Oklahoma's be great Oklahoma State's be great this year as you know I'm I'm big on Oklahoma State this year not be on this game though uh here's why how much they need to show and I think that you see a short line against an FCS school and I think Oklahoma State they return their whole offensive line they returned their quarterback they returned their world class running back I think think they're going to have a couple growing pains on defense and they're going to get it out of the way and they're going to get it out of the way early I still think they're going to go way over the wins I still think they're potentially up there for 10 10 and a half I think they're gonna get to 10 wins this season think they have a real shot at winning the Big 12 like I said they return their whole offense except for one except for one wide receiver or except they're tight end they really using that much anyways and the only problem I have is Mike Gundy starts out slow typic they got Arkansas next week too kind of a potential look ahead spot Arkansas put the wood shut down you saw Arkansas 10 possessions 10 touchdowns clean offensive game Oklahoma State could have blinders on way for now the only good problem the only good thing about this is you saw Colorado struggle with North Dakota State and Mike gundy's probably in that Lo say hey hey hey hey look at this look at this they're a big 12 team they struggled San Diego State's real or South San Diego State South Dakota State's real we don't we can't necessarily see pass him Mike gu is a good coach they'll win this game think it's to be tight think it's right on that number I think that 10 you guys know how this works right like they score 30 points and the South Dakota State get to 20 it's it's right there on that number so great staya away game you gave me a free play I would take South Dakota State South Dakota State this is essentially the Super Bowl these these SCS teams that are super talented that are in the upper echelon in the SCS when they come and play these division one schools the FBS schools this is their Super Bowl this is where they come out say hey you got a bunch of kids with a chip on their shoulder they didn't make it to the big leagues they're in they're in the minor leagues they're going to play super hard whereas you got oklah State let's just stay healthy we got we got to win this game then we got Arkansas then we got at tolsa we need be three and0 coming home for Utah so OKO State uh super difficult schedule early or super super difficult early Coast late so as for this all purposes I think you just take San Diego State I think you would take the 10 points here but we're not we're not playing this game um Aron Ohio State n game what are we want talk about here what are we talking about here Ohio State let's pull up the super charts here I'm I'm assuming Ohio state is a as a large favorite functions extremely well too yeah you're you're pulling teeth though here you you're rolling the dice in my opinion when you when you play these games how much do they want to show how much do they need to show how much you know Ohio State shiny new toy quarterback with Will Howard and Ryan Day really hasn't you know they're six and four they're 10 and0 they're six and four ATS last 10 as a 28 or more Point touchdown favorite so you kind of go that great is it really that great let's what do we got 48.5 lines of that nature 45 Point favor versus Youngstown State 35 to7 over under was at 57 that's congruent a 48.5 versus Aron in September 25th 2021 59 to seven so a 52o win that's tight guys that's four points and that over was at 66.5 so I think this number is tight I think it's right there on the number I think once again we talk about these things say 48.5 why is it 48.5 because it's [ __ ] seven touchdowns and it's really easy to get these guys to bite on that oh I just need seven touchdowns Ohio State's not gonna kick a field goal seven touchdowns right seven touchdowns so I think that numberers 48.5 for reason I'd stay away from it I'd stay as far away from it and do you want to chop those lines in half you want to play the first half play first quarter just look at team totals if you want to my opinion I I'd stay off q1 team totals I think I learned a little bit yesterday um you want to take the first half team total you don't want to take the Q one for so this one blah pass Aron's terrible you don't want anything to do with Aron either so the next game uh Texas hosting Colorado State Colorado State getting 34 points over over under 59.5 think Colorado State's got an outside Champion here guys I really do I think Colorado State's got an outside chance to I think they're good enough I think the Mountain West team is good enough do I think they're going to win this game do I think it's going to be uh close do I think it's going to be right there you go man this is they're going to be on that number I think have to work for it I think they have to find the way into the back door I think Texas's offense is gonna be [ __ ] incredible this year but I love Jay Norville and this is year three Jay Norville he's got his guys Brandon Fowler he's back a quarterback he wants to be there these are the guys that want to be their running back Justin Marshall reder freshman Dylan Gaffney these guys want to be in col state you saw the video we turn down nil money to stay here in col State we want to form something kind of a raw raw Point returns eight starters on offense returns eight stars on defense he's got his guys year three we talk about year three uh he's got Northern Colorado next week nothing really nothing really I look forward to it's not like he's not like he has to run there and say [ __ ] man we got we got we got a we got Colorado next week no this is the focus game this is the game that Jay norell focuses uh as an away dog six and four ATS nothing there nothing there substantial uh let's take a look at Texas let's take a look at Texas on the um let's take a look at Texas on the 21 to35 range the you know the kind of that kind of that little touchdown area here and how they function at home so Texas 2135 I think that's fair fair say that's kind of a 14-point gap that's a ho touchdown four and six ATS they have not they've 2017 to 2023 they're five and six to the loss one and six they're one and Five Guys one and five ATS Wyoming 3110 we saw it last season 30o favorites they win 30 by 21 Texas over KU 31o favorite 21 that's conference KU wins outright Texas rice 58 Point 58 nothing September 18th 2021 26 my favorite see yeah smok them uh Kansas again Tulsa Kansas man Kansas just Kansas Kansas just a thorn in their [ __ ] side is aren they we'll keep that note Kansas Kansas somehow just Kansas at Texas is free money no matter how many points they G you ain't gonna see 21 again but outside of the conference Tulsa rice and Wyoming a one and three so one and two excuse me ATS I I I I tend to think colado State could hang in there just enough like I said I think Jay norell is a good coach he came from um came from yeah he came from Reno right yeah he came from uh came from Nevada took a couple guys there with him Nevada was good you guys remember Nevada Nevada was a good program there for quite some time so yeah give me Colorado State plus 34 but I like the 35 you're damn right but once again we take a look at the line it's 34 because people think they can win by five touchdowns I'll take call us they here and not the window but this is this is this is towards the top of the list guys this is like towards top of this I I pretty convicted that Colorado State's gonna thing Miami Florida Florida uh Florida swamp you're talking about a coach that's on the hot seat you know how much longer does he got he loses this game he might be fired on the spot chrisal Ball's on the other side for Miami Chris ball is not a good I know as a Oregon Duck fan Mario Chrystal ball is not a good coach great recruiter great raw ra guy X's and O's no goes he doesn't let his coordinators do their job that's a little inside info some of you guys don't know he's a power freak he's a control freak he wants to call the offense what the [ __ ] you calling the offense you're calling zero Gap all [ __ ] day pardon my Fringe can can you get kicked off YouTube or cousing I don't know but he calls the zero Gap and and he calls the one Gap and two Gap and it's like such a such an uninspiring offense now he brings in cam Ward I like cam W I think cam W's good quarterback I really do and um you're at the swamp the swamp is one of those things man it's a sacred territory and you know it was four and a half steaming towards Florida Florida's kind of turned into that popular dog pick of the week you know I think that when you see a popular dog pick I think you kind of go whoa hold on Nelly why there're theying Underdog for a reason you know they're not they're not all that in a bag of chips we know what Miami is gonna be in the table Miami's got a better the best quarterback they've had in that system in quite some time cam W's good guys I'm tell right now watch him washingon State he's good he shredded Pack 12 defenses and don't [ __ ] on Pack 12 defenses man there's some good there's some good defenses there so I know I know cam W can get done um the Gators at home as as a home dog though two and two under Billy Mayer little better traditionally as a home dog but it doesn't happen very often but he's not good at home in general he's not good at ATS in all it's 11 and 14 ATS he's got a lot of work left to be had Florida's won two the last three meetings in this in this series so you do have Florida in but I just think you know Graham Mer's coming in they're returning eight starters on offense the over under is at 54 and a half which is rather large for a Florida home game my opinion this is in 2015 or 2005 Timbo 2007 whatever Tim whatever your Timo there I feel like it was just five years ago probably more like 15 years ago so this isn't this isn't the same offense that clicks Chris Lee Tim TBO it's not one of those offenses gr Ms he's fine I think he's good I think he's uh you know he's a senior quarterback he's going be Harold is one of the best maybe maybe this team does need a coaching change I mean he came from Louisiana and now he's um you know now he's in Florida maybe too big of a step up maybe took off too big of a bite I would take Miami and I would L the points in Miami I'm being honest I think Miami is a better team top to bottom I hate the coaching match up for Miami but Miami would be the side that I'd pick here I think you seen Florida become too much of a popular dog here I think you seen everybody oh Florida home florid at home florid at home who cares if Florida [ __ ] home flid Florida Florida at home is is I mean what are we even talking about Florida at home is nine and five under under Billy Napier what is that what's good about that you get you play Four you know nine and five and you play Samford and you play a couple other scrub teams every year at home so you tell me you beat nobody at home you beat Utah at home I guess that was your big win Utah was very down last year so I think that that's kind of the the the you know what I mean I think that's kind of the point that you see so um sorry got a kid texting me she text come by me so I would take Miami I would L the points Miami um do we want to humor ourselves with how these teams function let's see let's take a look Miami as a short road favorite uh Road favorite let's take it from zero to let's take it under a touchdown 6.5 see how Miami functions as a road favorite nine of one straight up 4- six ATS so ow Mario you since 2017 they've been favored by six and a half or less one two three four five five time six times of only covered one of them but they have one all but one of them and um oh that was yeah that's Miami Florida yeah no it's not sorry they just they just refreshed my old database I was like what the [ __ ] that's like a Texas oh yeah not good um Miami is a short favorite has not covered since 2020 so you don't have the database back in you either they have gone under though under under under under 6 5 48544 Florida home dog is a general let's take the look at that real quick already got Billy Napier's numbers that's two and two so um home Underdog short home Underdog 0 to7 7 and3 ATS they you know NP might be two and two but he's covered one two three four five Florida as a team is covered uh two three four four out of the last five there's legs there I'm telling you the leg there's legs there and they did not cover against Florida State they did not cover by a field goal there's legs there to take Florida too so um free fre I take Miami so Alabama Western Kentucky we trying to keep the show at a half hour especially these ones that don't matter but we're running over just because uh oh West Western Kentucky Alabama you if you want to get I think Alabama is the new over team in football I'll just be honest new coach offensive minded never didn't play any defense in Washington really he got a lot more Talent on the defensive side here 31.5 though seems kind of short doesn't it just a little bit 59 and a half I'd go over Western Kent's not bad they're a decent football team they with the football think you're to see some growing pains for Alabama I I have a future on Alabama to win the SEC I fure Alabama to make the playoffs I think Alabama's be just fine I think Jose is G be fantastic think offensively this team is going to reach highs they haven't reached in years but it's not going to come without uh it's not going to come out it's not going to come without a couple of growing pains so um take the over like I said I'm not over on guy so um we got a couple more games here there's there's three games at the end that I do want to talk about that I have a pretty solid position so maybe we'll keep our one play at our big play and then we'll grab a couple other small plays to humor us over the weekend Ferman uh miss another game this one actually probably holds more L holds more water than the other games at 42 and a half because I know Old Miss is just GNA [ __ ] fire you know that I know that we all know that they're just they're not they're not going anywhere they're good team too I mean they're they're they're right there they are right there to win the you know SEC too they're a good team man they return 10 stars on defense not that their defense isn't worth the [ __ ] and the Monte kein the that Moni kein defense I know he's not there anymore but yeah that Moni kein defense right Tampa 2 wasn't it Tampa 2 was Monty kin the Tampa 2 I'm pretty sure he was hold on a second let me find out Monty kin Tampa 2 Monte kein Tampa yeah he was Monty K Tampa 2 Tampa 2 teams know team teams know how to te teams know how to call team teams know how to to score on now a little bit more but still you got the Godfather of it and then you got a son Lane get drunk smoke weed like Lan kein guy [ __ ] offense genius home favorite though nine and 10 not good uh let's look at the database yeah I think these these large spreads you can tell a lot by the database here you can see teams like Texas don't cover large spreads you see teams like Oklahoma do cover large spreads um Old Miss Mississippi we're g to take 28 to 48 and see Helm favorite boom see how it works I mean I know they're going to score yeah not good 10 and0 straight up three and six one ATS last year 36 and a half Point favorite versus ULM 353 last year 34o favorite here's here's here's here's the best comp comp that I can give you right here 34o favorite versus uh MRC Merc M who would M be M mer mer mer mer mer mer oh I can think about it their orange basketball team we bet on their Women's Basketball team it's going to dve me nuts oh God they that fantastic point point guard it doesn't matter um but they won 737 over under 58.5 this is pretty this is this is aligning quite nicely probably you see a similar scenario you probably see Old Miss come out there and and pull an Arkansas or pretty damn close and um Mercer that's who it is Mercer so um You probably see AR probably pull Arkansas and you probably see him go out there 10 drives 10 touchdowns 7 points I think Old Miss minus 40.25 is a good look I do I think out of all these big spreads I think if you said pick one I think that would be the one I would pick to play I know old m [ __ ] it's be a great show um they got Middleton next week too so it's not like they' got anything look forward to uh Tennessee Martin Kansas State Kansas State minus 37 uh I'm GNA wait on Kansas State I don't know how they're gonna react without will Howard I think they got couple I think Kansas State to me is one of those teams that like they're so hyped up a couple years ago they were the 200 200 Club they threw for 200 they ran for 200 one of like three teams that that does it you know once a year and and they average that for the most part very balanced attack that's staying that's true that is a very balanced team but you know it's a short number and Tennessee Martin is um you know they're they're they've played bad teams every year they're not you know they play I mean they play a good team every year so they they're used to going getting their you know annual ass kicking um let's take a look if Kansas State's got anything up ahead too um I'm not gonna lie guys some of these games some of these games I did not necessarily cap that well because I'm not going to I mean if you need somebody to come tell you like Kansas State minus 37 they got at two lane next want to say it's a look at spot but it's definitely you know it's it's a sleeper game let's see what kind of number we can get out to next week Kansas State this is off a pass for me Oregon Idaho minus 43.5 no comment I'm a duck fan Oregon does I'll say this I've been to this game a million times I've seen it you know since I've been going to duck games pretty religiously well I have not the last couple years but I've been a lot of du games and this is typically how Oregon does things they come out and they go hot and they go hot in the second quarter and they go hot in the third quarter and they just lay down they don't play in the fourth quarter they're playing third four stringers Idaho is a little bit better they're a little bit better than some of these other FCS or division one 2A Schools they're they're they're up there they're not bad 43.5 though um we got a new quarterback we got a lot of returning Talent on the receiver we got returning Talent of the running back we got returning Talent of the lines organs returning whatever and all the talent they brought in not to mention I mean number one number two portal this year yeah I think number two portal team maybe number one in their constant top 10 recruiting class I mean you know they got four and five stars theore it might take a couple games to gel Boise State next week so I don't know if have much looking ahead but Boise State's not Boise State's good enough to come in there and keep it competitive I think Boise State's good enough to go there and lose a game by 20 points but you know a sneaky 20 it's like a it's like a 10-point game going into the halfway through the third quarter Oran opens it up sure could see that so um how much does Oregon want to show I don't know but they probably cover this thing Oregon just offense is going to be explosive you know you've got a quarterback that's played on explosive offense before he comes in here he's got TZ Johnson to throw the ball to he's got the kid from he's got Treadwell to throw the ball too he's got a lot of he's got a lot of talent he's a lot of talent St he's a lot a lot a good line to block him to I me got a lot going on maybe it's a homer pick but 43.5 I would lay it not gave you a pass I would lay it Notre name Texas A&M okay we can have a little more conversation about this Michela Texas Texas AM can [ __ ] recruit their ass off Texas one of the best for one of the most underwhelming teams for recruitment versus where they play now you bring in a coach who overachieves hoko and Duke you're talking about Duke guys now a lot of you guys don't follow football for as long as I have Duke was disgusting Duke football was a joke who was questions if they're G to have a program and you bring in the Notre Dame the fighting Irish Marcus Freeman and you bring in his former quarterback at Duke Riley Leonard coming in to face him master sensei versus sensei versus the um student versus the master right I would take I would take hon um boy three and a half now though three three and a half starting starting to Peak my interest here agies don't mind winning dirty they don't mind winning over at 46.5 they return wigman on offense quarterback fine um how's he gonna do in the Mike Elco Mike elco's a defensive coach you know that he really flourished his last couple years in Duke and that's really what saw you know you saw Duke have a great start but this team returned so much returned nine on offense nine on defense which is crazy because usually when a coach comes in you see a Mass Exodus and you didn't necessarily see it I think I think he's a great [ __ ] player coach I really I think these players will die for it and that scares me a little bit I think I think that you see an A&M creep up creep up and the other Counterpoint to this thing is let's let's have a conversation about Notre Dame Notre Dame ultimately just chokes every [ __ ] time I mean this team guys I don't know if they're cursed or what but they just do not get it done and they return a lot of talent they're going to be good this season they play an incredibly tough schedule that's no debate I mean this team's schedule just poor bastards they return almost their full defense great defensive team Marcus streaman great defensive coach year three I love coaches in year three I'm gonna watch this game I'm not gonna bet it I wouldn't I'm not gonna I'm not gonna tell you which side to go on I think this is the game of the week think you're going to watch one college football game this weekend I think this is the college football game to watch thinking to have a playoff feel I think both teams are playing for playoff field did a team has anything to look forward to next week got Northern Illinois for Notre Dame and you got MCN state for for an& m so it's a kitchen syn game for both it's a stock three the line did open up at closer to a pickup now it's moving to A&M I think it's a very sharp line I think it's you see minus three the stock three and's got one of the best home court advantages too and that might that line might be kind of short towards Notre Dame now Notre Dame carries a public dick and people love the B him and people love Riley Leonard coming in I get it I get it all I get I get the whole thing I get it all um I guess this my job is say if I said if you're gonna give me if you say hey here's you gota you gota you gotta win a million dollars you have to take one bet and one bet only on this game I'll take Don in I know I hate to say it too I know I hate to say it too um I'm not comfortable with it I think the line is a little bit short you know it's a peer line in sense but I feel like A&M's home field is a little more significant than that three and you got to take a look where this line open and you got to take a look at where it's moving too I think ADM under a new coach new scheme I think they're gonna be fine defensively think you might see a little lagging on offense Ry Leonard you gotta remember was very good on his feet too that's not something Conor wigman is necessarily a great great at yet he might get there so the Mike Elco offense or whatever he's offense that he's a part of he's new offense coordinat too but the Mike El the Mike Elco show requires his quarterback to be a little more agile and this is probably the best quarterback Notre has had in quite some time now at some point it's gonna catch up to him the plug andplay quarterback you can't just keep going one year Sam Harman one year Riley Leonard um R might get that fifth year next year too so we'll see but point being think Notre Dame chokes in these huge games they usually do but I just want to the team's defense I know is going to be just fine and A&M offensively might struggle so I want the best player in the football game I think the best player in the football game is gonna be Riley Leonard comes down to it the ball in his hands two-minute warning no can't call warning two-minute timeout excuse me NCA don't Su me two-minute timeout I think when rile leard with the ball in his hands that's the guy that I want to finish that game Fresno Michigan um nothing nothing abut nothing got nothing for you guys Michigan Michigan returns some Defense Michigan missing some Key Parts they're missing their running back they're missing their quarterback um missing a head coach defense is gonna be fine def be good again missan defense is just I mean [ __ ] just rotate from the back of the cupboard and keep going right I mean that's all it is grab the next one grab the next one defense be great there's no State you know this Michigan team is going to do one or two things this season it's going to roll over and die which I I think is probably the most likely scario here you're missing your head coach you're up against allegations you have all the that that's coming or they're gonna just find this Rally Point and just keep momentum going it's not like the recruits died off that significantly it's not like Harbaugh lost a ton I think it's gonna be later 21 points little short at home right Fresno maybe I don't know for a defending champ sure so um take the points doing it take the points Arizona New Mexico great time great time to buy Arizona Jed fish leaves that guy's great great head coach goes up to udub here Arizona coming out top 10 season New Mexico looked competent last week but it's still Montana State Arizona's GNA Arizona is going to score a million points this G I think you take the Arizona team tot over they have no problem scoring bringing bringing in the same crew on offense and they I saw comment I saw comment which was kind of you know it wasn't shadeed it was not necessarily shade at Jed fish but it kind of was it says you know no no what was it was Noah ftiti is that his name right Noah fiti said he said you know this team isn't one person this team isn't one coach this team this team is a group or something along the lines of that and it kind of gave me that like wow this team is [ __ ] serious they still returned 16 starters guys once again a program where the head coach left usually plucks and chooses something to take with him he did a couple guys but the majority of the core the core that was you know top 10 last season the core that was right there buching the playoffs that would be in the playoffs this year last year if last year's playoffs was this year they'd be in the playoffs that core still there and Britt Brennan he's fine I think he's a good coach I think Bren Brennan's gonna come here and shake things up a it I like Bren Brennan he's a great coach so you know I think you're going to see them comeing here and you know he was at San Jose State I think San Jose State had some good Seasons he comes in here I think he was outplayed his I I firmly believe that Brent Brennan outplayed his players or his ability in San Jose State and now you've given a live roster that just finished top 10 of the nation yeah give it to me give it to me all day I think Arizona smacks the sh these guys lineup it's coming down a little towards New Mexico I think it's overreaction so um couple games not are in top 25 we talk about these are the three favorite games of me and then we'll get this show w up Virginia Tech vanderbelt uh not the window yet but [ __ ] man I really get vgia tech vgia tech turn is the most talent in cultural B this year and you're gonna say well Virginia Tech wasn't good last year I don't care I don't give two shits this team returns 92% of their offense this team this team returns 78% of their defense this team returns 122 starts on the line this team returns 73% of their tackles and this team returns 79% which is good enough for second Nation Letterman I I think this is Virginia Tech year the sleeper team the sleeper team in the ACC and I think it starts off and I think it starts off big I think I'm want to go first half in this game though it's minus seven I think you're gonna see vanderbelt yeah Vanderbilt's kind of okay at times and they have moments and you go oh look at this vanderbelt team are they are they goingon to be decent no they're not they're they're they're still they're still lacking significantly they're still the worst team in the SEC and it's going to be that way and you got a Virginia Tech team that returns so many [ __ ] in her whole offense I mean in their whole in their whole offensive line I mean this is the kind of squad that I look for and say this is the time to buy buy now before the price goes up think this game was played in November I think it'd be a 21 to 22 Point 21 to 22 points and I think that that's a bold statement and you got vanderbelt they return eight on defense seven on offense they return uh they bring in Diego pava from New Mexico state who's a great quarterback he comes in here he's gonna he's electric man but Saia didn't did that all against the Mountain West it wasn't like it was going against you know a Virginia Tech defense that's got you know fouryear system players and they returned you know Cedric Alexander who's a great running back VB Bel there will be a time to buy him in my opinion home dog 4 and 10 Clark Lees the head coach he's been there as his first time as a head coach he's still there pluck it away and he was a a player in vanderbelt and I you know I think it's just all right whatever we're vanderbelt we don't care they got alorn state next week and I don't want to say it's a look ahead game but I think they're looking ahead maybe to say hey here's a game we can win maybe maybe I don't know um now conference he's three and N ATS he performs well in conference off of BU 0 and5 straight up versus top 25 oh and 12 I think vgin Tech fall to the top 25 rankings out this week I think Virginia Tech um once again I I'm big Virginia Tech it's one of my it's one of my sleeper teams I did not take a future on them I didn't like the price on it I think it was like minus 130 but I think Virginia Tech you see this team you know they've got at vanderbelt Marshall Odin Oden minion Ruckers you could be a nice quiet 4-0 going into at Miami Miami is be very beatable return their entire offense and return all but one Defender and I'm going this is the team that you want to buy Brent prize third year what do we talk about third year head coach It All rights there for me I'm going to take the first half here um not wi with it yet I'm going to wait till tomorrow night I'm gonna wait till tomorrow morning get in but uh I like this team I think I think we're on the right side of this I might I might take full game might take first half but I'm gonna get some action on this Miami Ohio Northwestern I talked about this at minus two and a half yeah I like Northwestern too I know Miami Ohio top to bottom might be a better team but I think Northwestern they're building off the momentum from last season they beat Utah in the bll game now it wasn't Utah was Utah's six string quarterback and all that but Northwestern returns a lot of smart players Northwestern returns their full line and Northwestern returns a lot of talent and once again it might be bad talent but when you have bad talent that comes together and they're building momentum I mean I I really think that this is the team that you want to look at and and they're not the worst team in in the and they're not gonna be the worst team in the Big 10 this year David Brawn he's got these kids playing hard man I I think this is a good spot um took over Midway through the season didn't get the uh or no he did take over full he was fulltime coach last year that's right they Bron but he's got his system in place um he returns new he doesn't return his quarterback returns a ton on the offensive line Northwestern offensive lineing pretty good and this Line's moving up I I I think I think it's a blowout I think you see Northwest comeing here and back sh play Simple I I I don't I'm not in on Miami Ohio this year I know a lot of guys are I think a lot of guys think that they can secretly win the back here and I think I think you're going to find out M action M action isn't that great they're 11 and3 last year um they don't return a lot they don't don't have they don't have a lot coming in they Brett Gabbert transferred over at quarterback or Brett Gabbert's still there at quarterback but he's constantly hurt he's in he's out he's in he's out kids hurt 247 and um Chuck Martin's been there for what since I was a kid I think I mean [ __ ] it seems like he's been there since 2000 let me see he's actually been there the 11th year there so it is his system it's that but I think you know you see him 11 and three I think that was the peak they have a buy next week so it could be be a kitchen sink game I don't think matters I think I think I think Northwestern wins this game and I think they win it convincing I think Northwestern for the first time in how many years goes in there blows the doors open I think you see Northwestern at home Miami win at home Duke win at home Eastern Illinois win you go and you take on the dogs the Huskies at Washington and what's gonna be a closer game than people think and final game on this slate Wyoming Arizona State almost an hour show not bad Wyoming as a dog going into going into Arizona State weird things happen in the desert at night how many of you guys have heard me say that before this is weird things happen in the desert at night wyom Arizona State's not good they're not good they're they're so far behind Herm Edwards set this program so far behind for them to be laying seven is just incredible they shouldn't be laying seven against any division one football team this year and I think Wyoming is going to go in there and and smack them up and I think Arizona State's got a you know Arizona State guys they're looking ahead next week too they got a big match up they got they have Arizona Arizona State next week hold up here who is in the SEC they're playing again Arizona State next week plays let me pull up my notes Here notebook for all these schedules Mississippi State at home game they almost won last year and then they go at Texas Tech or at Texas State at Texas Tech this is like I don't want to say that you can sleep on the first game but I think hearing how good you are and hearing that you know Dillingham isn't I don't think Dillingham is the answer for this coach you got a true you got a true freshman so slated at to start and love it kind of scary Red sh freshman kind of scary kind of scary your offensive line you return two starters not very good you only turn four starters on defense Wyoming plays that sloppy grit and grime slow you down grind you out style of football and that to me is exactly what Arizona state does one they return eight on defense now they do have a new head coach themselves Jay Sal's there salel comes in here and you know he he had some success previous he had some success previously as a as a um coordinator at um God where was he coordinator at driv me nuts J hold on he was the coordinator at j [Music] saell j s hold on pulling up uh fishy play Craig well he yes he won the Bull game he was the defensive coordinator last he was he was he was the defensive coordinator last year and um you know Wyoming defense is Wyoming defense man I mean that's where they that's where they get their great and Grind from that's this team nine of four last year and I think that you're going to see him come in there and and continue this Wilding tradition they got I next week so let's not look at head game seven points I'm not gonna I'm not going to play the money I'm G to take seven points seven points too much Wyoming will slow this game down it's goingon to be [ __ ] up weird things happen in the desert night weird things happen in the desert at night weird things happen in the desert at night Wyoming plus seven so um before I wrap up guys we have the two more videos coming out for the other two games but um where we where we going Saturday what are we putting money on we're looking at Virginia Tech first half minus 7 we're looking at Wyoming plus seven Northwestern minus three and as for a top asked for top 25 my ask for top 25 matchup I think I'm going to take that Old Miss and I'm I think this I'm think I'm G lay the points here with Old Miss so we'll miss minus 42.5 that's my top 25 match up I don't have a ticket in anything if you want to know what I bet and you want to see an actual ticket join the Discord it's free link is in the bio got you guys for one hour almost officially that's gonna be shut down to a half hour sooner and later maybe not we'll see but anyways thanks so much for tuning in I'm jumping off you can rewatch this anytime you want like subscribe share I appreciate it and uh go cardinal sh