2024 MLB Playoff Picture: Predicting AL & NL Winners, Wildcard Hopefuls & MORE

Published: Sep 01, 2024 Duration: 00:12:26 Category: Sports

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Back here on CBS sports HQ, presented by GMC. The Phillies walking it off in extras to take game four and the series over the Braves. Nick Castellanos, you see his team celebrating with him. He hit the game winning single in the 11th to win it three two for the Phils. Castellanos, his fourth walk off hit of the season. That's the most in the bigs. And the Braves now only one game ahead of the Mets for that final wild card spot. It has been rough for the Braves with all of the injuries. They're going to host a three game set against the Mets in the second to the last series of the season. They have the Rockies before that, but let's get back to the NL playoff picture. You see the division leaders there the Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, the Diamondbacks, Padres and the Braves in those wild card spots, the Mets just one game back. And right there we got the Cubs knocking on the door. Won their sixth straight game only three games back. Switching over to the Al playoff picture. Yankees, Guardians and Astros. They are the division leaders in the wild card spots. We got the O's, the twins and the Royals, and then we have the Red Sox trying to get into that final wild card spot four and a half games back of the Royals for that third and final spot as mentioned, they start a three game set with the Mets tonight. Let's talk about that matchup with our Jim Bowden and Matt Snyder. It's a meeting between two teams that are on the outside looking in. When it comes to the postseason, with the Mets and the Red Sox. Jim, I'll start with you. What team do you give the edge in terms of getting that wild card spot, especially when you think of the schedule, not only this upcoming series, but beyond that? I mean, I think you have to give the edge to the New York Mets because they're only one game behind the Braves, right behind the Braves right now. And so they've been red hot. They've got three starting pitchers at the top of their rotation that's been getting it done with Luis Severino and David Peterson and Sean Manaea. You know I talked to their manager Carlos Mendoza yesterday and it was very interesting because after he was raving about his MVP, Francisco Lindor, who, by the way, has 29 homers and 25 steals with a six war. He really talked to me about the human beings in that room, the culture that he has and he said it's a much different clubhouse than he thought it was going to be. It's a very close knit group. So, look, I think the Mets have a chance. You know, Atlanta still, you know, doesn't have Ronald Acuna Jr. They don't have Austin Riley. They don't have Spencer Strider. They're hoping to get Ozzie Albies back. But they've opened up a pathway here for the New York Mets. So I think they have a better shot than the Red Sox. But I'll say this about Boston. I also talked to Alex Cora, their manager, yesterday, and he said something very interesting to me. He said that I see the box score for the Worcester Red Sox yesterday. And I said no. He said, well Trevor Story went two for four and next weekend he's going to be my shortstop and I'm going to move San Rafael to second base. And he thinks that could be the X factor. That could get the Red Sox on a nice winning streak here and maybe get right back into this race. But as of this moment, I think the Mets have a better shot. Yeah, they definitely need a boost because the Red Sox are not going well right now. They split with the Blue Jays. They lost the series with the Tigers. They've actually lost seven of the last ten. And they're four and a half out. And while there is time to come back and it's got to start really quick. And the Mets are a tall order right now. I mean they've won the last couple of weeks, beat the Orioles in the series, beat the Diamondbacks in the series, split four games in San Diego and then they get the White Sox. And they took care of business by sweeping the White Sox instead of just getting a series win. So the Mets have actually been one of the best teams in baseball since the start of June. They they got on that. What was it grimace inspired winning streak. They've been amazing since the start of June. And that's a pretty decent sample here. So it's not like they've just caught lightning in a bottle for a couple of weeks. They've been good for several months. I think they're definitely better than the Braves and are going to end up winning that third wild card spot. So yeah, it's like I said for the Red Sox. They need to start winning right now. But it's a tall order because the Mets are going really, really well. Oh my gosh. I'm so down bad right now because I had to talk about the Florida Gators a little bit earlier, just getting absolutely smoked. And of course, as both of you know, our producer Jack is a huge Mets fan. And now he's in my ear as a Braves fan talking trash to me because now Matt is predicting them to get that third and final wild card spot. What the heck, Matt, let's talk about your Cubs because they're just three games back still in that conversation as well. A six game win streak. Matt, what needs to happen down the stretch if the Cubs want to sneak into that wild card spot? I know you said you think it's going to be the Mets in that third and final one, but if the Cubs want to make it happen, what do they need to do? Yeah, they've got a shot. They have a lot of series against these teams. I mean, they do have the Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies in the schedule, but the rest of the schedule is sub 500 teams, including some bad ones. Look, they've become much more of a team in the last month for a good portion of the season. The offense was subpar because it was really top heavy. They weren't getting any production at all from the bottom of the order, and the bullpen was kind of in shambles at least at the start of the year. Pete Crow-armstrong has been amazing at the plate in the last month or so. So has Miguel, Amaya and those guys were basically automatic outs to the all star break and a couple weeks after the all star break, but they've both been great and that has made the offense much more well-rounded. Dansby Swanson, as well, had been having a lost season offensively. He's really heating up as well. Ian Happ has been amazing, so the offense in the last couple of weeks has been just off the charts. They keep scoring in double digits. It's ridiculous. It's not just them though. The rotation has been good all year, but the bullpen they haven't been able to find a good mix back there. But now with Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller and George Lopez, they've really solidified the seventh through ninth innings there for Craig Counsell. And everything's working right now. Now it might be the schedule, but they are kind of playing to a level that a lot of people thought they would before the season started. Yeah. And let me add to that, Matt, because how good is the offense been? Well, let's look over the last ten games this offense since August 22nd has scored 99 runs that leads Major League Baseball. No one has scored more runs over the last ten games, and they're getting it from two of their young kids, right, Peter Crow-armstrong has been amazing over the last 25 games, hitting 325 with four homers and 17 RBIs. Matt mentioned Miguel Amaya, the catcher since July seventh. He leads all catchers in Major League Baseball in batting average and is second in Ops. And oh, by the way, is 13 for his last 26. Those two guys have been huge for this offense on this team that's won six in a row. And he mentioned the starting pitching. And I want to go back there because I want people to realize how good their top three are. Showed Imanaga Javier Assad and Justin Steele over their last five starts each. Their eras are 3.3 or under. They are giving this team a chance to win. They're getting run support. And as Matt mentioned, the bullpen is getting it done. I want to see what this team can do over the next nine games, because they had three against Pittsburgh, but they have to face Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. And then they have three against the Yankees and three at Dodger Stadium. If they can get out of those games, those nine games and still be within a couple of games of the wild card. This team has a chance to stay in the race with the Braves and the Mets to the very end. So we just showed the NL playoff picture and the race for that final wild card spot that is tight, but it's also a tight race at the top of the NL. Gentlemen Only two games separating three teams for the best record. And the Dodgers, the Phillies and the Brewers and the Dodgers and the Phillies have been kind of battling it out for most of the regular season for that top spot. Jim. Yeah, they certainly have been. But here's the thing to keep in mind, right, with the Brewers, the Dodgers and the Phillies, they all are really good at home. They all have great home records. So you want to have home field advantage. You want to finish with the best record. And although we always talk about the Dodgers and Phillies being the two best teams in the league, and the reason is because they are. But the Milwaukee Brewers actually have a better run differential than the Dodgers and Phillies. Their run differentials plus 133. Dodgers at 112 and the Phillies are at 110. And so this Milwaukee Brewers team has a shot to end up with the best record. I think it's going to go down to the very end to decide who has home field advantage. But I think it's going to matte. Yeah, it's so interesting to me because I have to deal with these teams in the power rankings every week and anytime I'm trying to figure out who should be number one. Every single team has some major warts to them. I think the Phillies seem like the most well-rounded team with the four really good starting pitchers. Now that Ranger Suarez is back off the injured list, the back end of the bullpen. We saw that on display last night in the Sunday night game. Several relievers that they can go out there and give them multiple innings of zeroes if they need to. And the offense. We know what kind of firepower the Phillies have. The Dodgers have amazing talent and offense, especially now that Mookie Betts is back. Now that Max Muncy is back, along with Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani and Tasker Hernandez, who's having a great year, then you look at the Brewers and they seem like they have the least amount of talent on paper, especially with the Dodgers having all those rotation issues with all their injuries. And, you know, Clayton Kershaw can be added back to that list. And then the Brewers Christian Yelich is out for the season. And you just think man it doesn't look like they have as much talent as those two teams. But I think you could also argue they've been the most consistent of these three, even if they have a little bit fewer wins because they don't get nearly as hot. But they also don't get nearly as cold and as frustrating as the other two teams. I don't think if we switch over to the Al, the Guardians reclaim the Al central, they have a lead there, but they do have a tough schedule ahead. A three game set with the Royals followed by a three game set with the Dodgers. Matt, how likely is it that the twins can catch the Guardians after that schedule? It's decently likely. I mean, it's a three and a half game advantage, so the Guardians have put themselves in position to just kind of almost tread water and then bring it home. But they've got to take care of business here. And it is a tough week, but it's also an opportunity because they've got the three against the Royals. And it's a three and a half game lead. So if they take two out of three they're up four and a half over the Royals and don't have to play them again this year. If they sweep them they're up six and a half. I think that would effectively bury the Royals in the division. They do have three left against the twins, so that again you could view that as an opportunity. And then when they go to Dodger Stadium, it's an opportunity to show that they can play with the big guns in the league. And I think that they kind of need to start to do that again because, as I said, they built themselves a huge lead by starting the season 51 and 26, but they're 27 and 33 since then. So if they continue to play mediocre or subpar baseball the rest of the way, the door is definitely open for the twins or the Royals. And, you know, I said, if the Guardians take two of three or sweep the Royals or whatever, if the Royals sweep the Guardians, it's a half game. That's essentially a wash. So the Guardians need to wake up here. And the Royals took three out of four against Cleveland last week. But something happened since then. It's an injury to first baseman Denny Pasquantino, and that's an injury that's going to be significant. He was on pace to drive in 100 runs. He was very important in the middle of that lineup and his loss isn't just about his bat, it's about the effect it's going to have. On Bobby Witt Jr and Salvador Perez, because when the three of them were stacked in the lineup, you couldn't pitch around any of them because they were all doing the damage. Now, with Pasquantino injured, now you're going to be able to pitch around Bobby Witt a little bit more. He can pitch around Perez a little bit more, so it's going to probably affect both of those guys offensively. Now. The Royals were very aggressive on their release waivers. They added Tommy Pham, they added Robbie Grossman and they added Yuli Gurriel this past week trying to get some veteran guys to try to make up for the loss of Pasquantino. This is a huge series for Kansas City. But if Cleveland can take a couple of games here, then they go play. The Dodgers, who remember their starting rotation is in disarray. The only way the Dodgers are beating people is they're just out slugging them every single night. So Cleveland's going to have a shot there. And if they can get by those games against Kansas City and the Dodgers, then you get the three automatic wins. When you play the White Sox. So Cleveland I think in a better position because of the injury to Pasquantino, because the Dodgers starting pitching is in disarray right now. And then you get the White Sox. So I think they're in pretty good position even though it's only three and a half games. All right Jim Bowden Matt Snyder we certainly appreciate it. Talking playoff baseball. It's going to be here before we know it. We certainly appreciate it gentlemen. And just a reminder you can find Matt's Power Rankings over on CBS sports.com. Getting a look at some notable games happening tonight. We have the Tigers and the Padres, the Red Sox and the Mets facing off in game one of a three game set. Yankees and the Rang

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