Fantasy TE Draft Strategy, Breakouts, Busts, & Sleepers

TE Draft Strategy all right so we've already gone over quarterbacks and running backs and wide receivers in the last three weeks now let's talk about tight ends and the strategy here is very simple I want one of the top seven guys you want a tight end that could potentially finish as the tight end one overall those guys have the best chance to do it and there's a great analyst I've had him on the score fantasy football podcast Andrew Cooper fantasy alarm he is sort of positioning himself as the tight end Guru in fantasy and when he came on the show he talked about how last year in PPR leagues all the tight end ones all the top 12 finishers were either the number one or number two target getter on their team that is as simple as it gets right you want to find a tight end that can get massive volume and who has that Talent every single guy in that top seven can come through for you this year if I happen to not get one of those guys the next guy up and I'm going to talk about him a little more is Brock Bowers I think he is a definite breakout candidate Elite rookie but we'll get to him in a second here guys Jonah I know you mentioned this week that you were having your Draft Lottery and just strategy wise I want to try to figure out how people can get helped at home so where did you end up uh finishing in that where are you going to be picking 12th imagine that the year after coming in last place I got saddled with the last pick that doesn't seem Equitable here we are no it it's going to be fine you can definitely win from the 12 spot but the reason I want to bring this up is because in traditional snake drafts you might be locked in depending where you're picking so if you're picking at the end of the round for example you're going to know that ADP wise who's going to be available so for me it's going to be leaport and Kelsey around that three four turn you're going to have to consider one of them there and then because you're picking at the end it puts you in a really tough spot because you're G to have to go all the way back around you're going to miss out on Andrews and concade and Trey McBride probably if you don't take one of those guys at the three four turn so when it comes back around you have to hope that a George KD or a Kyle pittz are going to be available to you there and honestly in really competitive leagues they might not be so then you might have to consider some other options but let's talk about some specific names here and kind of break it down we'll start with Breakouts the breakouts because I've been giving you two guys for the breakouts in every one of these episodes one that's a little bit obvious a little bit higher up the list and then one that's further down so let's talk about Dalton concade on my bills a guy that I think has a great chance to finish as the tight end won overall this year you look at what he did as a rookie put up really good numbers not a great touchdown total but there's some reasons for that but if you look at that offense from week seven on last year he was the tight end 11 in fantasy points per game so we see rookies often start to break out as the year goes along we saw better numbers from him in the second half of the season and that was when Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and those guys were still there now they are out of the picture and you don't really have a true number one receiver in Buffalo they're hoping that Keon Coleman their rookie can become that guy eventually but based on what we've seen so far from him it might take a little bit of time for him to figure out how to win in the pros they have Curtis Samuel who I like a lot he's sort of a weapon that they can use all around the formation but he's coming into this season with turf toe is he going to be available in week one is he going to be himself in the first few weeks because of that injury and I like khil Shakir as well too but also not a guy that I think is going to profile as a number one receiver in the offense so can Kade for sure could lead that Bill's offense in Targets this season I think he's going to have a fantastic year the other guy I already mentioned and that's Brock Bowers this Elite rookie Prospect who's kind of getting overshadowed because there's so many Elite rookies in this draft class talking about the quarterbacks talking about the receivers well Bowers also fits that bill and he goes to the Raiders and I know people often are down on the Raiders wilky but Bowers is a guy who's going to be used all over the formation we saw that in the pre season that was very exciting the only thing to remember about him he has a foot injury right now he's missed about 10 days of practice so we'll have to keep an eye on that injury to make sure he's going to be okay at the start of the season but as long as he's out there we've seen rookies in recent years put up pretty good fantasy stats I think Bowers is going to be able to do just as well if not even better this season he's Busts that kind of player now if we go to the opposite side of things the bus and I always say the caveat that I'm not telling you completely not to draft these guys it's just drafting them at their current adps I think would be a mistake and the first bus that I'm going to talk about here Evan Ingram on the Jags and you're going to say Evan Ingram last year he helped me win a fantasy title because over the last five or six weeks of the Season he was the top scoring fantasy tight end yes he was averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game during that stretch he was fantastic and this year in the preseason the final week of preseason action he comes out gets four catches scores two touchdowns oh my God he is in a great position to be a fantastic fantasy pick but what was happening in those two scenarios Christian Kirk was not playing if you go back to last year over the first 12 weeks when Christian Kirk was healthy and in the lineup Evan Ingram stats were basically cut in half he was averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game during that time he was the tight end 14 in fantasy points per game so I'm concerned that Christian Kirk being out there on top of all the other weapons that Tyler aled about earlier in the show Brian Thomas Jr there having Gabe Davis there now even Parker Washington has gotten a lot of buzz in the preseason and in training camp they have a lot of other weapons if there's not injuries I'm concerned guys that Evan Ingram is not going to get back to that Mark and people are going to be drafting him like he's a potential top five fantasy tight end even though I don't think with everybody healthy he's going to be able to do that yeah I think it's a case of like you said off the top when it's him not being potentially the second option do you think by the end of the year he could be the third option or could he be a player that maybe Wells their Red Zone issues and scores six to eight touchdowns or do you think this is Brian Thomas that kind of takes over as the two with him be more of the third option I think that's a big concern but the interesting thing and this ties into what you said earlier about Trevor Lawrence this might just benefit Trevor Lawrence because they're going to game plan week to week and some weeks that means that they're going to find Brian Thomas downfield for big touchdowns some weeks Brian Thomas being downfield and pulling the defense and stretching them is going to allow Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram to work underneath but the consistency I don't think is going to be there from Evan Ingram this year I think they're going to just kind of rotate all those guys but if Christian Kirk remains healthy I do think he's a guy that could potentially put up a pretty good fantasy season and we've seen that from him before over the first 12 weeks last season he was a top 20 fantasy tight end but this is the tight end episode this is not the wide receiver episode so let's keep going with tight ends here one more bust I want to mention and again a guy who is a very talented player Dallas GD on the Eagles the problem for him is he has these two fantastic receivers on the outside AJ Brown Devon Smith when those guys are healthy it is so hard for Dallas Goddard to put up consistent totals and now we have other options there like saquon Barkley coming out of the back field and even though they don't throw that much to their backs Barkley is's going to command some targets for sure they trade for Jan doson who probably will end up being the number three receiver in that offense so GD just has a lot of Target competition he's somebody that I push way down my rankings this year now let's Sleeper talk about a sleeper and I mentioned this guy either last week or the week before as somebody that I like for Fantasy but a guy that you really don't have to go get in traditional leagues if we're just talking about start one tight end leagues you know regular redraft leagues like you're in at home you don't need to wait and grab a guy like Tyler Concklin but Tyler Concklin has been sneaky good over the last three years if you look at the last two years with the Jets or even his last year in Minnesota 3 years ago he's been top 14 in terms of catches and yards for tight ends he's done that every single one of those years and that includes the last two seasons with the Jets where they've had terrible quarterback play the thing that's been missing for him touchdowns but now Aaron roders is there you hope that that offense and that passing attack is going to be able to do a little bit more than it did with Zack Wilson and Trevor Simeon and all those guys and it's probably going to lead to some more touchdowns there as well Rogers has helped tight ends put up decent fantasy totals in the past guys so I like them a lot I I like that offense that passing attack we've talked about them a bunch on the show I think Tyler Conlin is someone that people are overlooking he goes really late or sometimes undrafted in leagues and yet I think he could sneak into the lowend tight n one range yeah I love this call you and I have talked about Tai Conlin a lot and I I think that he could be a a really nice sleeper at the end of your drafts uh one tight end that I wanted I guess it's two tight ends that I wanted to ask you about uh the situation in Green Bay I think they can kind of fall into to the sleeper category but also maybe even the breakout category I I like both L Luke Musgrave and uh Tucker craft how do you see that situation playing out because there's not going to be two high tight end scores on that team that has a lot of Playmakers so who are you drafting I know that you have best ball in mind because last week you asked a question that kind of tied into bestall I think this again is one that ties in more to best ball because we're going to see Musgrave and Tucker craft involved in that offense and with all the receivers we Ted about it I mean they have like four really good receivers in that offense they have multiple good running backs even though wilky wants to tell you that Josh Jacobs is the greatest running back in the NFL they have Marshon Lloyd who is going to get some work there too so it's going to be difficult for either one of these tight ends to really blow up unless we see an injury and last year that's what happened early in the season it was Luke musgrav starting and then he got hurt later in the year Tucker craft and they were both decent for Fantasy but they're also just two different players Luke Musgrave a much more explosive player kind of a rare like downfield tight end almost I think they'll take advantage of that and then Tucker craft kind of more of that yards after catch sort of player I think that's the area the field that he'll work in more um I think they're both going to have good weeks honestly in my rankings right now I probably need to move Musgrave down a little bit I had him a little bit higher just as like a tight end to in the top 20 but that was because Tucker craft was coming back from an injury this off season now craft is back really seems like both guys are going to be involved so I'm kind of scared about having them in a traditional league but but in a basketball league I think they're both really good picks where they're going definitely uh Boon quickly do you think that uh you know with the tight end position being pretty rough one to manage fantasy-wise are are you in any leagues where there's like a tight end premium would you recommend that for anyone that's starting a new league to put any premium on tight ends do you prefer it I really like tight end premium leagues I'm going to tell you that anytime you bring up like any sort of like weird strategy stuff I love that for Fantasy I want to see more situations where people have to use their brains try to figure out like what they should be doing where they're not just going to go and follow off my rankings exactly they're going to use that as a guide and then they're going to make their own decisions based on the scoring settings in their specific league so I really like tight end premium all the dynasty leagues that I'm in are tight end premium you could even go with as many tight ends as there are this year some of the Tyler conin and those later guys you could even start two tight ends like there's two quarterback leagues there could be two tight end leagues um and you could combine it you could have two tight ends and some sort of premium and normally for people that aren't playing in leagues like this when you're talking about tight end premium it's like an extra half point for catches so if it's a point per reception tight ends get 1.5 points for theirs and it just bumps them up so it makes it a little more interesting when you have to make those decisions in your draft about where some of those guys should go but we always TE who will lead you to a title end on the big question here who is the tight end that is going to lead you to a fantasy title this season and this one is all about where his ADP is this year it is George KD on the 49ers this guy has finished as a top five fantasy tight end for six straight seasons and yet this year he's going as the tight end six I've even seen him go as the tight end seven in a lot of drafts Kyle Pitts bumping up over him I've seen him fall into the sixth round even sometimes the seventh round not so much recently but in some of the drafts you know a month or so ago he was falling into that range I don't get it guys this he's fantastic the only problem that some people have with him is that he's a little bit Boomer buff he's that kind of player where on his down weeks where the game plan's going to have him more as a blocker where you have Brandon auk and Debo Samuel and Christian mcaffrey going off his down weeks are very very low but his ceiling games they are weak winning and there are just not many tight ends out there that can give you like a 30o game and potentially win your week so George KD should probably be going as like a top two or top three tight end this year you can get him in the fifth or sixth round I highly recommend doing that I've talked before about strategy wise this season I'm taking one running back early I'm taking a couple receivers after that and I'm trying to get that tight end in sort of round five or round six hoping that some value Falls to me there George KD is often the guy that falls to me in that range and I don't know why people are overlooking them this season I there's just such an opportunity here because we still don't know what's going to happen with the Brandon iuk situation right there's a chance that before the season the 49ers are forced to say look he's not going to come in to play for what we want to pay him we're going to trade him and all of a sudden KD becomes the second Target in one of the best offenses in the league like that's huge I mean last year he was the second Target in the offense he had this for anyone that's concerned about what I said at the top there about trying to find a guy that's one or two in Targets on their team and looking at all the weapons they have there KD's been doing this been that top five fantasy tit end for all those years and doing it recently with all those other weapons in the offense so keep that in mind out there this is a guy that definitely could see more targets than some of those other big names that's how good he is yeah he had 90 targets a year ago and it's bizarre because you would think he would have gotten the receiver boost and by that I mean him being spotlighted in the Netflix docu series receiver like people would be clamoring to get George KD seems like it's had the opposite effect doesn't make any sense to me doesn't make any sense to you either it wasn't that long ago where it was almost unheard of that a tight had would go over a thousand yards right it was very very rare now we have Travis Kelce doing it often we have KD doing it just last year and yet still falling in the rankings for some reason in ADP not so much for me I'm very happy to take him right on uh great stuff as always Boon tight end not the sexiest position this year you find a way to make it sexy man a testament to you brother uh thanks so much once again that is Justin Boon that's Tyler mckb that's Sam Wilkins my name is Jonah bebom thanks so much for joining us today on no timeouts we'll see you next time