all right so yesterday's revision the payroll since shock waves not only down Main Street but of of course Wall Street as well and you know what it may only be the Tipp ofy Iceberg remember we had Daniel Booth on yesterday she talked about the reduction being 915,000 but by the way Mike shedlock also came up with the same number if you added up all the components here's the bottom line the trend is very dis serving look at this - 612 - 733 735 - 9915 it's easy to see why many people believe a that this has been sort of a deliberate cover up right and keep this in mind this is only a preliminary number there's going to be more adjustments to this and if you think about that for a moment AC according to BLS commissioner William Beach these adjustments are going to be made so what you've got is this what they call the birth death model which normally moves hand in hand with the change in business establishments that's what we saw yesterday the number of business establishments went down over 50% the birth the birth death model was also going to come down it's easy to see why some people think that at some point this number could be zero that we created zero jobs in the last year so with that in mind you say how can a Fed make decisions based on this kind of faulty data interestingly the Federal Reserve has thrown good oldfashioned observation out the window the question is are they relying too much on data well here's a headline for you fed Schmid says that he wants to see more data before they can cut rates now my next guest actually pointed out that the lack of confidence in their models is a major major issue for the Federal Reserve and will create intriguing possibilities at Jackson hle here we have the daily price chart for Trump media and Technology Group Corporation stock ticker djt if you find these educational materials to be helpful in your trading please remember to click the like And subscribe buttons so that other Traders will be able to find this information more easily so as we can see here the share price itself has started to come under a bit of selling pressure in the most re recent trading periods and the near-term low currently comes in at $21.33 so of course this does break below the prior historical support uh support zones which came in at 2483 and then 2255 so as things currently stand the share price itself is trading below all of its exponential moving averages on the daily chart so here we can see that currently you know most most recently share prices have started to encounter some resistance right into this 20 period EMA and this is causing a bit of a roll over here in share prices uh however this recent news that the uh the economy actually added fewer jobs than expected there's possibilities here that uh some of these figures were uh sort of intentionally uh let's say posted in ways that that were not necessarily accurate or sort of covered up certain types of uh certain types of data uh all of this has to be taken into consideration when we're trading this stock because these will be uh of course vital factors when people are making their decisions at The Ballot Box this November uh because obviously the economy is a major uh issue currently for most voters so if we do start to see some some sentiment shift uh here in terms of the overall election Outlook uh it wouldn't take much here to start this send share prices back into this exponential moving average cluster as things currently stand on the 20-day exponential moving average currently presss right around the 2560 Mark so if we were able to break above here uh you know there's Fair there's a fair amount of distance here uh between the next between that that level of resistance and the next level of moving average resistance given the fact that the 50-day exponential moving average is not found until we reach share price levels that are above the $30 Mark so that would be a fairly significant rise here and I do think that if we were to see a price movement like that uh into the upward Direction I do think that some of the tide would start to shift here and that we would start to see a lot more of a bullish Outlook being presented for this stock as things currently stand I think that most of the attention is still centered on uh Kamala Harris and her recent uh performance in the polls however we have you know recently closed up the uh the Democrat National Convention and if we continue to hear news stories about how the econom posted fewer jobs than previously thought this is not going to be beneficial or allow people to sort of side in favor of biomics kamalan nomics you know whichever word we want to use for this there there are real questions about how strong the economy actually is at the moment and the more information that we receive the more data that we receive just looks less and less favorable for the Democrats and their control over the government over the last four years so as things currently stand you know I do think that a break Above This 25 60 Mark uh this this 20-day exponential moving average normally I don't like to focus on one moving average so much but the reason that I would sort of point to this area mostly comes from the fact that there is a large amount of distance here between the the 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA that on that on its own is a bit of an you know a bit of an unsustainable signal uh generally you don't see that much distance between these exponential moving averages as we can see up here um you know the 100 uh the 100 day exponential moving average and the 200 day are very close together and then even the 50-day is relatively close to those moving averages as well so uh you know there is a large distance here and those types of divergences between the moving averages generally that's not something that that's sustainable and generally that is something that's likely to reverse near term ultimately you do really need to revert back to the mean and in this case the reversion to the mean would mean uh an upside break here uh above the 20 the 20-day EMA and then at at least a retest of this 50-day emema which comes in right around the 3030 Mark I want to bring it out independent Institute senior fellow Judy Shelton Judy this was a fantastic article on the New York Sun intriguing possibilities emerged for the fed's annual Retreat next week it's not totally confident in its own model I mean they've got an army of phds why are they so relying on data that's going to eventually be late they're going to be late and it's by the way this data is becoming more and more unreliable there's good reason for all of us to be skeptical about that data especially when it gives us conflicting results and we we've long had this anomaly between the payroll jobs number and the household survey and part of it is because some of the numbers are based on people who qualify for unemployment insurance but we also know there's a lot of new labor out there that may have work permits but wouldn't be in that qualification and so you end up getting these conflicting numbers that on the one hand said that we had tremendous job growth but now we're wondering if that was all a mirage and so the fact that the FED is so data dependent should not give us a lot of confidence I would have much more confidence in the sort of aggregate assessments of the individuals who really participate in the real economy I think those insights are much more valid now Allan Greenspan once said that he learned to mumble with great incoherence and that if he seemed clear to you that he was being misunderstood I bring this up because J Pal's going to have to deliver a message tomorrow that somehow soothes everyone's nerves what do you expect and what would you like to hear from him tomorrow well we won't hear anything very original I think we're going to hear more the repetitive message that um the balance of risks has now moved from being anti-inflation to needing to support the labor market it it's ironic that on the fedone website they say the FED really can't do very much about the labor market that those are determined by structural variables and we know that the fed's model really relies on just curtailing demand they can't do anything to improve Supply so I sometimes wonder how is the Fed going to explain why inflation came down at all is it just because they they made the cost of capital so expensive for private business that they couldn't hire people they couldn't expand our high value trading strategies membership is currently available for a limited time for only $9.99 per month these high conviction investment strategies are characterized by Superior risk to reward metrics that Target massive Market beating returns over time join now to outperform the market lock in this special introductory rate of just $9.99 per month for the entire lifetime of your membership and start trading stocks with the pros [Music]