NFL fans welcome back to the J all day show it's kickoff week guys we are finally here and I'm super excited to talk some NFL with you guys today what I want to do is go over some of my potential Survivor picks with you guys I'm going to do a little preview break down these games and circle some of the games that I am targeting I just opened up my memberships and for $4.99 a month you can get all my Survivor picks on Fridays all my bets on Fridays Members Only shorts and members only live streams pretty much access to all the bets I'm going to be making each and every week this year for our NFL season so I'm going to do a preview earlier in the week and then I'm going to lock in my picks on Fridays cuz we got to wait till the injury reports come out to really lock in our survivor picks and then in the pool that I'm in I have 10 different entries right so I'm going to make an Excel spreadsheet with all 10 of my different entries and show you each and every team that I'm picking for those slots for my Survivor pool you can buy back in after the first week only but you have to pick the Monday night game so that's the Jets or the 49ers so say I pick the Bengals and then they lose to the Patriots I could buy back in and then I would have to pick either the Jets or the San Francisco 49ers so if you want access to all these different perks make sure you check out the memberships in the description down below all right let's get into this preview all right NFL fans I want to show show you how I kind of approach my Survivor pool picks first off I don't like division games if I can unless the team is super trash like Carolina was last year I really want to stay away from division games then I really want to stay away from Road games too NFL teams are extremely difficult to beat at home obviously some teams are better at home than on the road some teams like the Dallas Cowboys are great at home but they're not so good on the road and a guy like Jared G he's really good at playing at home in the dome but if he plays outside he's just not quite the same quarterback right the Cowboys went 8 and0 at home last year so some teams have a serious home field advantage right so we don't want to pick against the momentum right guys so we want to stay away from Road teams if we can and another thing I like to avoid is rookie quarterbacks right there's a lot of rookie quarterbacks starting in week one we got Caleb Williams Jaden Daniels both Nicks I mean there's a bunch of them right so there are games I want to avoid so we want to just keep narrowing our scope and put the odds in our favor of winning these games and then next obviously we want to go to the point spread and then if you look over the week you can see how the point spread is moving so if a bunch of juice is going in on one team you want to do some research and kind of figure out why that's happening right all right now let's go into these games and start breaking them down like the Ravens and the Chiefs and the Packers and the Eagles these are two even games in my opinion I don't really see an advantage in any one of these games especially the Packers Eagles game there's no home field advantage right they're playing in Brazil the Chiefs are really good at home but I kind of want to save the Chiefs because remember you got to survive the entire season or at least past like week 10 11 and 12 right there can be weeks that a bunch of teams get wiped out and there are games I want to avoid as well like super chalky games right like a point spread over 10 or something like that because when an upset happens a bunch of people are going to get knocked out and you can survive that right okay so the Ravens Chiefs game Packers Eagles game I'm not really interested in that and the next game up is the biggest point spread of the week at minus 8 and a half this is the only game with over a touchdown point spread right so this is a game I'm interested in but Jamar Chase contract situation is still up in the air so if Jamar Chase does not play I don't know how interested I am in this game the Bengals have a pretty good defense but so do the New England Patriots I think the Patriots are going to struggle to keep up with the Bengals scoring points but remember Joe Mixon is gone so is Tyler Boyd so it's just T Higgins and Jamar Chase left right so these are all little variables we have to take into consideration as we kind of make our picks each and every week so that's one game it's on my radar this is another game on my radar are the Arizona Cardinals at the Buffalo Bills playing in Buffalo is never easy right at least it's not freezing cold right cuz if this game was in December Arizona from a team that plays in the dome it's going to be tough for them to go into Buffalo Upstate New York and win a game but luckily for the Cardinals the weather should be pretty good in Buffalo it's still going to be warm it's not going to be that December January type of Buffalo Bills game right but the Arizona Cardinals defense is a little bit shaky the defensive line has a ton of injuries on it guys they don't have anyone on that D line right now that's healthy that had over like six sacks in an NFL season right so they're not going to get a lot of pressure on Josh Allen in my opinion the offense for the Cardinals is improved Trey McBride Marvin Harrison Jr Kyler Murray is finally healthy right and that young offensive line has another year under their belt they should be okay this year but I do like the Buffalo Bills if you don't get pressure on Josh Allen it's going to be tough sleding right that's a game that's on my radar another game on my radar is the Houston Texans at the Indianapolis Colts I think the Texans are the team to beat in the AFC this year I think they have the best roster Baran in the AFC God man that offense is so talented right if you're a defensive coordinator you're having nightmares scheming up some sort of Defense to slow down CJ strad Joe Mixon Stefan Diggs ni Collins tank Dell Dalton Schultz wo baby good luck but I do like like the Colts as a team shanee siken is an incredible coach I think he's going to do great things with Anthony Richardson this year Adan I Mitchell they got him in the draft latu lotu one of my favorite Edge rushers in the draft is with the Colts as well Michael Pitman Jr is really coming into his own as a number one wide receiver there I think the Colts are going to be very competitive this year but I think the Texans are just really really good and I'm interested in that game I'm not sure if I'm going to like lay some juice on it but we'll have to see what happens this is a game I don't know if I'm interested in let me know in the comments below are you betting this Jaguars Dolphins game so the Jaguars offensive line is a little suspect Trevor Lawrence is overrated in my opinion Calvin Ridley is gone but they did bring in Gabe Davis from the Buffalo Bills they're going to go to Evan Ingram the tight end a lot he got tons and tons of Targets in the second half of the year last year but the Miami Dolphins lost Christian Wilkins to the Raiders on the defensive line that's a huge loss chub is still injured and then the offensive line Lost Robert hunt to the Carolina Panther so you win and lose games in the trenches right guys two huge losses for the Dolphins in the trenches I don't want anything to do with this game if the Jaguars won I would not be surprised and if the Dolphins hung up a 35 burger and the Jaguars only scored 17 I wouldn't be surprised about that either there's too many variables in this game for me I don't love it on the next game Tennessee Titans versus Chicago Bears we got rookie quarterback Caleb Williams do I want to use Caleb Williams later on in the year could I use this game as one of my 10 picks as kind of a variable pick like and if the Bears end up losing I could either pick the 49ers at home or the New York Jets I'm considering that I'm not 100% sure where I want to go with this game yet the Tennessee Titans have really improved that defense bringing in lerus need from the Chiefs they also brought in a woer from the Bengals they really wanted to shore up that secondary the offensive line is still a work in progress in my opinion but they really upgrade the wide receiver position Calvin Ridley's there now Tyler Boyd DeAndre Hopkins will Levis has some people to throw the ball to and I like their running backs to Pard and Taj Spears on the flip side the Bears probably have one of the most explosive offenses in the entire NFL I don't think I've ever seen a rookie especially a number one pick in the draft like Caleb Williams coming into an offense with this many weapons DeAndre Swift I look for him to have a huge game week one DJ Moore Keenan Allen romad dun they got two good tight ends as well very formidable offensive line the Bears are on my radar guys they're on my Radar Minnesota Vikings at the Giants I'm not really interested in this game at all because of the quarterback play right one more note on the Chicago Bears I I said one things I don't like to Target is rookie quarterbacks right but this situation is a little bit different in my opinion with Caleb Williams and the Bears I'm not going hard on it I might use one of my you know entries for that game I'm not 100% sure yet I'll fill you guys in on that members only video on Friday now back to the Vikings and the Giants right two mediocre quarterbacks right and when you have two mediocre quarterbacks one of these teams is going to get some turnovers and I have no idea what team that's going to be so I'm staying away from this game the L's at one right now whenever it's a pick them a minus one minus one and a half line I tend to avoid those games as well there's not a lot of chalk there Sam Darnell could have a great game I'm leading towards the Vikings winning this game for sure even though the Giants really short up that D line with Dexter Lawrence being paired with Brian Birds coming over from the Carolina Panthers but Sam Darnell throw throwing to Addison and Justin Jefferson hackinson still hurt or whatever so I'm avoiding that game Steelers at the Falcons the Steelers have one of the best defenses in the NFL guys between High Smith and TJ watt they're probably going to get 20 sacks again probably easily but their offense is cheeks man straight cheeks they're going to run the ball okay they're going to want to run the ball 25 30 times a game Russell Wilson with some play action some boot legs I just don't believe him and Russell Wilson I don't believe in this offense the Steelers lost one of their top wide receivers Deontay Johnson to the Carolina Panthers so they have pickings and a bunch of bums I don't love that situation I'm probably not going to bet this game because Kurt Cousins is coming off that injury I want to see how he looks in week one before I put any juice on Kurt Cousins I'm avoiding this game Carolina Panthers at the Saints I might I'm considering using one or two of my lineups for the Saints cuz I don't want to use them any other time during the year the Carolina Panthers still have a lot to prove one of their top picks Jonathan Brooks is still on the pup list they added some offensive line help but Bryce young didn't look good last year at all I don't like their running back situation Adam thelen's getting a little bit older even though I think he's in play for daily fantasy check out theel he's got a 25 30 point potential in Daily fantasy for sure um I think the Saints win this game they got a pretty good defense Derek Carr is formidable olve is you know a pretty good number one wide receiver they don't have a ton else there in my opinion Alvin Kamar is getting older I think he gets a lot of volume though I'm avoiding this game Broncos at the Seahawks this game's at minus six Seahawks brought in the new head coach McDonald from the Ravens former DC there he's really going to get this defense playing well in my opinion I think they're a top 10 unit when this season is over but B Knicks is decent man he's got courland Sutton on the outside they brought in Josh Reynolds from the Lions he's a pretty formidable number two wide receiver there's going to be some butterflies that stadium is tough to play and it's super loud one of the loudest if not the loudest stadiums in the entire NFL and it's week one so it's going to be super loud the fans are going to be into it I like the Seattle Seahawks I'm thinking about definitely considering them for one or two of my lineups remember guys I got 10 of them so I got some you know leverage to spread out but I don't want to spread too thin either because the more teams you pick the more chances of you have losing those games all right Raiders at the Chargers I like the Raiders to win this game but from a Survivor perspective this is a division game I don't want any part of right Hardball is a really good coach lot of moving Parts with the Raiders even though I think the Raiders are going to surprising people this year week one Anything Can Happen the Chargers don't have a lot of mustard on on the offense man they really don't the running back room there is pretty cheeks I do like the Raiders maybe I roll the dice and do one lineup for the Raiders but they're on the road and it's a division game I got to stick with my guns and just avoid this game I think I'm going to avoid it we'll have to see Cowboys Browns another tough game Cowboys lost to Ron Bland on the outside at the cornerback position they finally got CD lamb back in the room locked up for the next four years the offensive line I'm hearing good things about Cooper BB but I'm not sure about this offensive line early on in the year going up against a very formidable D line with Miles gar and Company they're super talented and they also have Denzel Ward who's going to probably travel with cidd lamb I just don't want anything to do with this game if the Cowboys won I wouldn't be surpris and if the Browns were in Dak Prescott's lap all game long that would not surprise me at all either I'm avoiding this game commanders at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers guys I originally was like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the team but the defense lost some guys they didn't really replace them Devon White's now with Philly they lost some guys the offense is think bringing back like 10 or 11 starters there so I think the Buccaneers should win this game but Jaden Daniels has got that juice man something about this game is making me have Trap game feelings they did lose Jihad Watson to the Philadelphia Eagles they don't really have a tight end Zack Z is super old they have rookie bonot but I don't know how much he's going to be in the fold in week one new coaches there new head coach new offensive coordinator brand new coaches all over the board in Washington I might roll the dice with one Tampa Bay lineup but this game has got me having some bad juju about it Rams Lions no way I'm touching this game same thing with the Jets and the 49ers very competitive game both of these lines are at three and a half for the home team these are for the better teams in the NFL I don't want anything to do with these games unless there's some injuries that aren't disclosed now that keep some star players off the field for week one so that's why I want to do this preview for you guys now kind of give you my initial thoughts going into week one but we got to see the injury report and find out who's going to play who's not going to play that's why I'm doing the members only Survivor pool picks video for you guys on Friday so if you're interested in that check it out in the description down below thanks for tuning in this video we appreciate you guys peace