good afternoon everyone this is Dave Nadler with the National Weather Service in peace Treet City Atlanta uh conducting a uh briefing on what is now hurricane Francine and its impacts to North and Central Georgia over the next couple of days this briefing was conducted at a little after 1 pm today which is Wednesday September 11th 2024 so here are the main highlights and again um focusing on the uh threats and impacts from Francine over the next 48 hours across North and Central Georgia Francine is expected to make landfall on the Louisiana coast later this evening and and then as it tracks North across Mississippi uh tomorrow into early Friday uh we do expect rain and some Gusty winds to increase across North and Central Georgia in addition to that um some of the outer rain bands could produce a few tornadoes mainly uh looking at a across parts of Western Georgia generally west of I75 I would think be the the primary concern for any tornado IC activity again these are tropical Cyclone tornadoes so um generally they'll be brief and and um fairly weak but um still still a threat to consider um and again we with there's a little bit of uncertainty about um once the remants of Francine sort of fade off there's still some uh upper level energy that could um prolong rainfall uh through the weekend across the area and in even into early part of next week so um just keep an eye on that um for now just looking at the next 48 hours through Friday um and even into early Saturday our main concern is going to be the amounts of rain that we could get um which could lead to some localized flooding um we've obviously been really dry um generally speaking over the last few weeks so the soils are are pretty dry and we'll be able to absorb a lot of the rain that we do get out of this system um but nonetheless um some of the more flood prone areas could become problematic as we go through tomorrow night and into to Friday um we do expect the winds to pick up um gusting uh over 20 to 30 mph at times um not a major concern um but if it it lingers for 6 Seven 8 n hours of of this kind of wind um some of the trees um could get uh pushed down a little bit um River flooding should be pretty Limited at best and again the tornado threat um is localized um for areas uh primarily along and west of I75 so here's the latest National Hurricane Center forecast um between about 11:00 a.m. and 1 p.m. eastern time um you can see where Francine is approaching the Louisiana coast and expected to move north Northeast um right now it's about 180 Mi Southwest of New Orleans moving Northeast at 13 mph that's the center of the storm Max sustained winds of 90 mph Francine is expected to strengthen slightly just before landfall on to around 100 miles hour um and that would take it into a low-end category 2 hurricane but Francine is then expected to weaken pretty quickly overnight through the day Thursday as it tracks North across Mississippi um in the next 24 to 36 hours now again the potential impacts to North and Central Georgia the rainfall um could lead to some localized flooding or flash flooding especially uh over areas that could see 3 to four plus inches of rain over the next 48 so we'll be watching that closely um again that's a localized uh threat definitely not widespread um but something where rainfall and and some localized flooding will be our primary concern the winds picking up um could be an issue only because of the um just the risk of some of the trees being sort of stressed out recently because it's been so dry add in the rain add in the wind um maybe we could see a few more trees that get knocked down um in this kind of a wind uh field uh versus usual so and then of course the there are uh there's the potential for a few tornadoes mainly west of I75 tomorrow uh late tomorrow through uh Friday uh afternoon talk about that here in a second um the models are are definitely in pretty good consensus and agreement taking uh the center of Francine North and then eventually curving it back to the Northwest toward like Memphis and Arkansas Northeast Arkansas southern Missouri and then kind of dissipating it over the next 48 hours becoming sort of an extr tropical low um in the next 48 hours or so so um and also um it'll you know weaken um in a sense of like the intensity so the confidence is pretty good that that that's what Francine is not expected to necessarily track Over Georgia but it doesn't matter we're still going to get the um potential weather hazards and impacts across the area the latest satellite and radar showing you um on the left the uh Center of of uh not not necessarily showing like an eye feature um on radar you could see it um down there off the off the Louisiana coast but the satellite still pretty good um development and organization around the center of the of Francine right now the radar we've got some very very light precepts starting to move in parts of Central Georgia a lot of that's not even reaching the ground along I I 85 um to the south of Atlanta but over the next you know 6 to 12 18 hours um the moisture is going to deepen the rainfall is going to start to you know increase across the area from the south and Southwest So speaking of rainfall this is what we're expecting over the next um basically 24 to 36 hours through like Friday afternoon Friday evening um we do think most the area is going to get anywhere from 1 to 2 in um through Friday evening with locally higher amounts uh possibly up to three or 4 Ines in spots just depending on where some of the heavier uh rain band set up and that is a little bit of course of uncertainty into that at the moment as far far as exact location um but generally speaking like we should be able to um receive these amounts of rain over the next uh one to two days and not see any sort of widespread flooding issues but um if one area gets hit a little bit harder with more repetitive heavy rainfall of course the the flood potential may go up a little bit now this is the probability on the left of seeing more than two inches of rain uh through Friday night um through 8 a.m. Saturday um we got a few areas especially um along the I85 Corridor and south of I20 over West West Central and Southwest parts of the area um that are over 60% so again we we we could see some no surprise that some areas after this is all said and done will get over 2 Ines now anyone over 4 in the probability goes down to between between like 10 and 20% so it's it's non zero but it's pretty low um for getting more than 4 in at this point now this could change a little bit um but generally speaking we don't expect many areas to approach 3 or 4 Ines at this point um some there's a little bit more uncertainty as to how much additional rainfall we'll get on Saturday um Saturday evening um some of the models are um predicting um sort of a um like a Remnant boundary um or low-level Convergence Zone sort of setup sort of Northwest to Southeast across the area um with moisture uh in place little bit of uh daytime heating we could see some Redevelopment of shower and thunderstorm activity on Saturday it does shift more to the northnorth East versus the west southwest um but generally looking at the storm totals through Saturday that increases the overall amounts across parts of Northeast and East Central Georgia to between two and three upwards of 4 in uh by Saturday before everything um sort of kicks out and most of the moderate to heavier rainfall uh diminishes um by the first part of the weekend now looking at winds uh we do expect widespread wind gust in the 20 to 30 mph range with pockets of 30 to 40 at times um again these are gust we're not expecting this widespread um prolong period of 30 to 40 mph winds at all but at times especially with the heavier rain bands that come through we could see the the higher wind gusts move through as well so just be mindful that you know generally speaking we're probably going to be in that 20 to 30 mph wind gust range beginning uh late tonight into tomorrow and continuing through early Friday um but with some of the some of the outer rain bands the heavier rain bands moving through those gust could be um locally higher for a short period of time um here's the radar simulation uh we've got uh I wanted to talk a little bit about the tornadic threat this is basically looking at tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours and then overnight Thursday night um if you look across um parts of Alabama into Western Georgia early in the period which would be like Thursday afternoon some of the heavier Pockets where you see the deeper red oranges and red colors um that's where we could see um a little bit better convection um with the low-level wind energy in place the shear as we talk about um that's where we could see some rotation and maybe some brief tornadoes so coming into parts of West Georgia again West generally west of I75 um and then pushing West into Alabama as the area we're going to have to watch um as these uh more organized bands of of rainfall approach from Francine as Francine moves Inland later tonight into tomorrow here's the SBC Outlook um looks fairly reasonable probably would stretch that marginal darker green uh all the way to Atlanta um and mon uh but again if you're anywhere from down from Atlanta down to mon uh even South and Southeast of mon to and then Points West uh towards the AL abama State Line i' I'd just be prepared for um some rotation with some of these stronger cells that move through late tomorrow um and then through Thursday night and again on Friday we'll just um keep an eye on that it's a little uncertain as to if we go under any sort of watch at this point um but just be be prepared in addition to the rainfall and the increasing wind that there could be a um we could be issuing a few tornado warnings with uh these cells as they uh approach uh from the south so in summary again um Fran scene is expected to make landfall as a low-end category 2 hurricane um later this evening as it tracks North across Mississippi um Thursday into early Friday we do expect rain and some Gusty winds to increase across parts of North and Central Georgia just about all of North and Central Georgia um a few brief tornadoes will also be possible again mainly across West Georgia West of I75 um if any of the stronger rain bands move across late Thursday afternoon through Friday and then after all that we we could see this lingering rain thr into the weekend um even after you know Francine is sort of Fallen apart there is going to be a Remnant low um with enough moisture and some Daytime heating to produce um some additional shower and thunderstorm activity as we head into uh Saturday and even into Sunday so um we'll keep everybody up to date on this through our email updates um don't anticipate us doing any sort of special webinars at this point um but uh if we do another briefing like this uh which is recorded we will of course share that with everybody via email but these are the different ways that you could reach out to us and connect with us um otherwise thanks for uh listening to this briefing be safe out there and have a good rest of the day