Weather Impact: Tracking Tropical Storm Francine

A meteorologist, Kim Castro. This is your latest tropical updates as of the one o'clock advisory from the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm free and scene is gaining intensity and organization. So it jumped up from 50 mile an hour winds to now 60 it's also seen a pretty significant pressure drop. It went from 1000 and two millibars to 996. It's moving to the north northwest at five miles an hour and is expected to make a turn towards the north east. So this is a more favorable forecast for Texans. We'll have to watch the majority of the impacts towards Louisiana. We'll still see some wrap around outer bands that will cause some issues here in Houston. I'll have more details on that in a moment. But look at the infrared imagery here, you'll see where it's getting a little bit more consolidated, a little bit better organized and that's why we have a better understanding as where it's going to track. So Francine is moving towards the east. This is the latest cone from the National Hurricane Center expected to gain category one hurricane strength by Tuesday night and then sustain a cat one strength, although gaining some intensity by Wednesday. And that's when we're looking at a landfall along the Louisiana coastline near Lake Charles, 85 miles an hour. Could this system gain even more intensity? Could it undergo rapid intensification? Yes. So we'll still have to monitor the next advisories that come out throughout the day and into tomorrow to see if there are any developments. But for now, the south westernmost portion of Louisiana all the way into New Orleans under that highest risk. Tropical Os look like this. We're watching tropical storm watches along our our coastal waters. So chambers Galveston Brazoria seeing the potential of tropical storm force winds and then not just the coastline of Louisiana under a hurricane watch but inland area. So now we have a big highlighted area, high impact zone for Louisiana. Locally, coastal flood warning is in effect. This includes chambers Galveston Brazoria, Matagorda is under an advisory. So it's expected to see lesser impacts but impacts. Nonetheless, both of these advisories and warnings in effect until one o'clock Wednesday afternoon have a look at future track. So now we're looking at the cone and future track radar you'll notice already by Tuesday morning and early afternoon, widespread heavy downpours, especially along the coastline and watch the time stamp there and then also keep an eye on radar here, see a little bit of a break maybe in the afternoon and then more rounds as we head into Tuesday evening. I think Tuesday is going to be the biggest impact day as far as torrential downpours if this forecast holds. Keep in mind, this could speed up or it could slow down a little bit. So as of Monday afternoon, this is the latest forecast, we'll have to fine tune it as we get a little bit closer towards tomorrow morning. So just back in with us throughout the day, Wednesday, one o'clock, that's when we could see a potential landfall on the Louisiana coastline. So we'll give us a little leeway here sometime between Wednesday, late morning through Wednesday, early afternoon. Notice as, as energy pushes towards Louisiana, the outer bands start to lift a little bit further north and I don't think they'll wrap around quite as intensely as they might on Tuesday. Let's talk about the windfield. It's tracking again where the landfall will be. So the highest likelihood for at least tropical storm force winds at least 39 miles an hour all the way up to hurricane force winds. Uh highest likelihood for that Lake Charles Lafayette along the Louisiana coastline, about 80 to 90% chance there. And then some chance for our coastal counties to also see the wind impacts. Not to mention the storm surge, the coastal erosion, all of the coastal threats that come with the push of energy from a hurricane. So we'll have that probability for our immediate coastline at around 50 to 60%. So that could lead to some power outages. So just keep that in mind, I'm letting you know so you can make those preparations today. Even though the majority of the impacts are gonna be to our east. We're still under a weather impact alert Tuesday and Wednesday, we could still see some heavy rain. Although this is a much better forecast for Texans, keep an eye on it because things could change. Scattered storms Tuesday, maybe into early Wednesday morning, elevated tides, storm search coastal erosion, coastal flooding all on the table. I'm gonna say this 30,000 times because it really pays to watch the forecast especially when a system like this is so close to us. But for now, here's a detailed look at what we could see coastal showers that pick up the pace on Tuesday morning, maybe some coastal showers that advance further inland into Harris County. I think your highest likelihood for Harris County to see some showers and the push of some of that gusty wind is gonna be between two and six o'clock. Then you'll notice nine wrap around showers moving from Livingston uh towards San Jacinto, towards Montgomery and then lifting as the system continues to push towards the northeast, rainfall accumulation on average should be manageable. This is one forecast model. So don't be married to this. However, the general idea is that the impacts are very much reduced in comparison to where the center of that storm is going to be tracking. We don't have a flood threat today because we don't have a rain chance today tomorrow. However, as those rain chances go up, the threat goes up to a level two, slight risk on the 1 to 4 scale notice. As Harris County, the southeast most portion of it is under that level two threat as well. The rest of the area about under a level one and then these threats crunch further towards Louisiana as we head into Wednesday. But a fluid situation. So I want you to prepare, it's always best to get ahead of the game and then not see anything than to not be ready and then see everything. So treat this as you would any system that's in the Gulf close enough to raise an eyebrow. So make sure you've got your nonperishable food, your water supply isn't depleted. I know sometimes it's easy if it's been sitting on the shelf to just um drink the water and forget to replenish it. So just make sure you've got all of these uh checklist items accounted for just in case, you know, it doesn't take much for us to lose power. So just in case we do see one or two gusty winds swirling around in here and your neighborhood loses power. Don't forget to fill up your car too and try to get some cash in case we lose power, we'll keep you updated if anything at all changes. Um Look on our social media, look on katu.com and we'll make sure that, you know, first.