Week 1 Underdog Fantasy Picks (2024 NFL Season)

Intro [Music] what's going on everyone this is the Ron and welcome to the Any Given Sunday YouTube channel I am back after six months listening reading learning and waiting for the NFL season which I'm recording this on Sunday September 1st it's Labor Day weekend and the first game is is merely days away on Thursday when the season opens up with the Ravens and the Chiefs so it's been a long time coming haven't posted any videos in the meantime there's been a lot of draft things that have happened there's been a lot of offseason things that have happened there are plenty of people that cover that that's not really what I'm here to do as I mentioned in my intro video and my first couple videos my primary focus is going to be finding good picks and making money on Underdog and price picks um so to start this video off I think it would be helpful to walk How Underdog Fantasy Works through a bit of a high level of what Underdog and price picks are and then we'll jump into how we're going to go ahead and approach our picks so I'm located in California um Sports gambling is not legal in California at this point in time um but what is legal are these kind of daily or pick uh Fantasy games so um there's a lot to do with like laws and why that's you know available or not I'm not an expert from what I understand making picks on a game is more of a luck based result versus making picks on a player skill is concern considered a skill-based result so it's legal these apps are growing like crazy um and they have some pretty decent payouts um if you go ahead and you know get enough picks in there so what we're going to do this season is try to recreate some of the success that Overview and Best Practices I had last season now I wasn't recording last season so you're just gonna have to take my word on it but um I was up a decent amount um and a couple areas where I really focused in on that I think will be helpful for this season are going to be matchups that that seems pretty straightforward but for example looking at James Cook here you know over 60 66 and a half total yards he's going up against the Arizona defense we can do some research really quickly but I don't anticipate the Cardinals defense being very good their offense obviously is going to be very exciting this year but they don't have a great defensive line their first round pick that was on their defensive line is now hurt their secondary is poor um so thinking of James Cook who is probably going to get a higher volume this year in touches due to the I guess thinning of weapons in Buffalo as well as their run heavier scheme last year to end the season where they started to see success that makes me feel like for example James Cook against Arizona is going to be a good matchup you know on the other side of the coin AJ Brown against Green Bay I mean AJ Brown is a All Pro you know Pro Bowl wide receiver he had an insane string of like five straight games with 120 yards and a touchdown last year so picking against him you know probably doesn't make a ton of sense but for example the Packers have brought in the Boston College um head coach to run their defense and you know have Jer Alexander in the secondary brought in xaver mckin over from the Giants as their safety so they've made you know Market improvements and investments in their secondary so whereas last year this one might have felt like a no-brainer who knows also this game uh is is in Brazil and we've never had a game in Brazil so I'm a little wary of games like that um you know Jags playing in England that usually goes well but two teams uh you know with a lot to prove this year playing in a location that they never played before I'm probably G to end up staying away as we go along in the season one thing that will ultimately benefit us is we'll have some historical precedent to employ when we're making these picks so one of the things that um I found success in last year and maybe I could go ahead and let's use AJ Brown um as an example go ahead and do game stats here so that stretch that I was talking about right here between looks like week three that's probably like week seven or eight there we had at least 120 yards per game I guess not a touchdown every single game but still you know what we will start to see during the season is you know he started off slow but let's say for example AJ Brown has two games in a row against you could see Tampa Bay Washington and then going into a Rams game which the Rams don't have a fantastic secondary necessarily if we're starting to see a player's performance start to Trend in a certain direction we're going to ride that um in addition if we see someone's uh kind of production tailing off I think a great example of this would have been Stefon digs last year where he was Unstoppable to start the season and then pretty much after like week like halfway through the season he barely eclipsed 50 yards like if we start to see something like that then we'll use that kind of historical context to decide hey like we'll probably take this person's unders on yardage especially if for example let's say Stefan Diggs went 24 48 and his over under on yardage is still like 75 yards or 80 yards like he's gone under that number for three or four straight weeks in a row like we're gonna look to say like that's actually much slower uh or that receiving total is much higher than it should be and that he should be going under that number um obviously we can't do that uh to start the season but I do think that uh typically when you're thinking about sports betting that earlier in the year the the sports books haven't fine-tuned their lines yet and so there are some potential inconsistencies that we can look for so a couple things about using this platform you will see these discounts like I mentioned so for example this one this is meant to be a gimme here so like adding Travis Kelsey over 0.5 yards all he needs is one yard in order to win that you will note when you add in one of these one of these gimmies you are going to have a cap on how much you can earn um just because these are so easy to get that they're basically giving you a free one that you're not going to be able to get the Boost that you would so for example let me add these in here yep and then uh like looking at what I just had added in there like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson when you see these little like kind of spicy symbols like at Chipotle it's like the Chipotle logo um when you see that like spicy symbol you'll see a two point uh or a kind of a multiplier number um that typically is because it is less likely for that thing to happen and therefore they are incentivizing you to bet on it by providing a higher multiplier for it to happen so you could see that with if Travis Kelce gets over one yard and both Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have rushing touchdown and I put down $5 I'm going to win $134 that's pretty crazy returns it's like 30X basically a little bit less so you can see here that as you kind of like build these plays you know $5 at a time $10 at a time all you really need is one to hit for it to pay itself back um and that's really what we're going to be targeting here now what I've done is I've put $100 in Underdog and I've put $100 in and pricee picks Underdog is doing kind of like matching bonus and I'm sure both of them are doing uh like new users first deposit matching so I would incentivize you or encourage you to go on um and sign up now because they're going to have good bonus and boost right before the season um again like please be responsible I've had this planned where I was going to put $100 in each um thing and that has kind of like been in my like financial budget that I've been planning for um but please don't put more uh than you're feel comfortable with in these applications maybe start with you know a couple of bucks 25 50 uh whatever you feel comfortable with again I'm going to be trying to put together bets where you put in the lower amount and have a higher reward so uh hopefully they'll end up paying off but let's go ahead and actually like start talking through some of the things uh that we like to start off this season so um one is and I this is something that I've had kind of circled on my end for a while now uh James Cook total yards now looks like we're getting it at a discount here so I'm going to go ahead and take that 66 and a half total yards again I think this is a fantastic matchup uh for James Cook and I think that uh that will certainly uh be a good match up against a a decent but probably not very good Cardinals defense and I like to use PF when we're looking at rankings and projections they do a really really great job um so you'll see here when we go that they're I didn't even expect it to be that bad they're 30 second um according to PFF um and so PFF does a really great job of ranking it based on you know the style of play the players that they have available holes and strengths so I think that even though I think the Cardinals Will Be Frisky this year like that really has nothing to do with them being able to stop James Cook um go and zoom in a little bit for you and then let's keep it moving so this typically how I'm going to do this is just kind of like scroll through see what we like and then I'll double back to things um I really think Rashid rice is going to have a breakout year I am not the only one to think that he's poised to be essentially their number one target other than Travis Kelce with now Xavier worthy and Maris Brown who is hurt now um but Xavier worthy kind of taking the top off the defense so I do like having his over receiving yards I also like Xavier worthy longest Thursday Night Opener Picks (Chiefs vs. Ravens) reception um he had like a 37 yard reception in one of the preseason games and I think everyone in the world saw that uh the training camp video of the bomb that Patrick M Mahomes threw him so uh just kind of like early picks I like those my typical my typical approach is to kind of spread picks across games I'm either going to do it like I'm only going to bet on players in a singular game like for example it would be fun to have bets for just the week one game so like I might just do those and then I might have other picks where I'm just like spread across the entire slate um I there is an amount of like causality and game script that is important but I think as you kind of like spread your bets out across multiple different games in my mind you're actually amplifying your chances of winning because so many things can happen in one single game right but you're kind of like decreasing that risk of one game potentially ruining your bets alog together so let's actually let's take James Cook Out of This we'll come back to that one um and let's look at some other bets for this first week because I think it would be fun to have some some bets in line for the first week um I do think looking in if I'm looking over here it's because this is where uh my screen is I do think that Derk Henry I don't see a world where he doesn't score a touchdown week one if they get in the Red Zone they're giving him the ball and I think the Ravens are gonna have I think the Ravens are gonna have a lot to prove this game I think this is kind of like you know like their Super Bowl almost to start the season after what happened in the AFC Championship game last year and I think that they're going to want to feed Derrick Henry let's take a look at his yards too 67 and a half rushing yards I like that too see it basically gives us the same odds I actually like that rushing yards a little bit better and you'll see when you click into the individual player it'll show you their past performance obviously not super relevant here but I do like to check at times uh they also have defensive players which uh is a little bit tricky but one I actually was targeting this last year and it was pretty helpful there are Absolut players who like Kyle hamton for example who was averaging like eight tackles a game um and their line was at like you know four or something like that it's that's something that's probably going to be like a later in the year type of approach um let's see here but just something to call out I I don't really want to put any money against Patrick Mahomes like having interceptions or taking sacks because he that doesn't really happen he's Patrick Mahomes okay so that's that's three picks for week one I think we could probably just throw in that well let's look at peo I think there's a world in which I think there's a world in which the the Ravens defensive line and just defense overall is not quite as good with Mike McDonald being gone you'll see this kind of like multiplier here for fumbles lost like again I don't want to be betting on people losing fumbles unless we find out like there's someone who's playing who has a fumbling problem then we're gonna bet on that PCO has not necessarily shown that to be something worth betting on I think if I was going to do anything I'd probably pick his rushing yards and then we had that Travis Kelce discount so we have five picks here it's 20x so if I put down five I'm gonna win a 100 so that's just math right five times 20 is 100 um and that feels pretty good we're looking at Travis Kelce over one yard Isaiah p over 62 and a half rushing yards Derrick Henry over 67 and a half rushing yards Xavier worthy longest reception 20 over 20 half yards Rashid rice over 60 and a half receiving yards we could probably throw in now you'll notice when we Lam Mars for some reason are not available right now they do this when folks when they're changing the lines um let's look at Patrick now for example it's more highly likely that Patrick roles will have over one and a half passing touchdowns and so with it being like the higher or the over is actually going to be less than 1X so you're actually going to get decreased odds on that so you kind of don't want to do that but I actually think that that's just a good bet standard payouts are available for Ines with picks let's see what happens if we take this is something newer to me let's see what happens if we take out that and we add in let's say this there we go okay Derk Henry did that switch it out got it okay so it's capping us at five picks got it all right that's helpful to know okay so this decreased our odds pretty drastically so I'm going to go ahead take that out I think I think I'm gonna go ahead and lean back in on the rushing yards and then let's go ahead and put in that Travis Kelce and that's five to 100 okay so we're gonna kind of lean back on that now what I would do is let's look at Price picks um and just double check Comparing Against PrizePicks Lines those lines and see how they look so Caleb Williams over 05 passing yards I mean that's gonna be a pretty easy one there so I think that we could now we know hey they have that like we should absolutely have a play on this book when we're thinking about across the entire slate and we should throw that one in there but if we're looking at kind of the first game I see the part of the reason why I don't use I don't like price picks maybe quite as much is the the layout here I prefer it kind of like game by game as opposed to just all the players listed out so let's take a look and just see so they have 62 and a half rushing yards peo 62 and a half okay I'm just comparing the lines to make sure that we're not getting hosed you'll see they have over two and a half passing touchdowns which is interesting on the other one it was one and a half but you had the decreased odds right Xavier worthy they don't have the longest touchdown yeah I just received I 61 and a half receiving yards yeah just worst lines not really worth it so I think More on Chiefs vs. Ravens this yeah I mean I want to have some action on the first game right like part of this is just for fun so want to have some action on the first game feel like these picks are fun to route for and also equally likely to happen so we're looking at Rashid rice over 16 and a half receiving yards he can do that in one play Xavier Worthy longest reception 20.5 longest reception uh 20 20.5 yards as the longest reception I think they're going to throw him at least one if not two bombs Derk Henry rushing touchdown I think the Ravens offense is still going to be hyper effective like it was last year Chiefs defense did have some attrition in the secondary so I do see a world in when the Ravens get down into the Red Zone and I don't imagine them not giving the ball to Derrick Henry if they are down there Isaiah p go 62 and a half rushing yards this one I'm probably feeling the least positive about I'd be curious to know last year and this is where the research comes in stats how many receiving yards he had per game it's first game he had 31 0 16 43 so this is like that historical precedent that we're talking about the line was 14 and a Final Picks for Chiefs vs. Ravens half so in the first half of the Season he went over 14 and a half one two three four five times out of one two three four five six seven games so that's pretty decent looks like in the back half of the season when they weren't playing as well um he didn't but 14 and a half actually seems like a pretty pretty soft line as compared to looking at his rushing yards from last year he actually wasn't going over 62 much so let's actually shift that to receiving yards yeah I like that if only the Patrick Mahomes one uh wasn't lower odds but I think that this looks pretty good and I feel confident in that so I'm going to go ahead and play that one so that's our first one that's just for the opening Thursday night 5 to win 100 20 to one odds and hopefully pretty decent looking uh picks there all right now let's move to the entire slate so like if I really Full Week 1 Slate Picks like one in that kind of bucket I or in that game I might transfer it out to some of the other games and some of my other picks that being said again when you tie I don't want this happens a lot when you're making like parlays or teasers where you have one bet you're like I know this one's going to win so I put it in every single one of my my bets every single one of my bets that has to have multiple things happen in order for me to win and if that one thing that you felt so confident in happening doesn't happen then all your bets are screwed so like for example I really like that Xavier worthy over 20 and a half yards is the longest reception I just don't really want to like put that in all the rest of them I want to diversify where I'm pulling my picks from so on this next go around again I love James cat so this year and I think against the Cardinal defense I think that's a really great value there I'm gonna move past what you can actually do is collapse all and then you can go by game again I'm just gonna stay away from the Brazil game that's just me I don't want any part of what's gonna happen in that game I think there's weirdly high stakes for both teams because if Philly loses Nick serani is on the hot seat immediately he kind of already is and if Green bay loses everyone thought they were going to be this like amazing playoff Super Bowl team and they lose the Eagles now everyone's like are they actually that good are they too young is it too soon so and it's in Brazil so I I don't want any part of that let's keep moving now just looking at this I actually and as I'm thinking through it like I'm thinking about game script I'm thinking about what I think is going to happen over the entire season it's not just like on a individual game or just like picking things just because so for example Jags were eight and three last Trevor Lawrence - over 15.5 Rushing Yards year and then Trevor Lawrence got hurt and they were pretty snake bit the rest of the year I actually think they're gonna have a bit of a bounce back like I have them picked to make the playoffs I don't necessarily think they're going to win the division with the Texans and the Colts also in that division but I do think Trevor Lawrence is going to be better um Miami Dolphins defense have brought in a lot of really just older players that like kind of from the bill and other teams like Jordan puyer that they're probably still good but Vic fangio was there for one year and then left so I there's a little brain drain there I would imagine they're going to be more of an offensive heavy team so um I kind of like Trevor Lawrence in this matchup and he's actually an underrated Runner and if we go back let's look at 2023 I would guess yeah let's look at Rushing so to start the season and this is when he was healthier and the line is 15 and a half so one he 21 26 12 42 31 15 59 which week did Trevor Lawrence get hurt sometimes I can't type so apologies get hurt I feel like that's week 13 yeah suffers yeah he had the high ankle sprain December 4th okay so that was December 4th of is the game against Cincinnati so the two games before he didn't and I think he might have been injured a little bit before but if I'm just looking at the kind of front half of the Season where he was more healthy he was hitting over 15 and a half on a consistent basis and then actually if I look in the back half of the Season like amazingly he didn't miss a game he still went over 15 and a half or got close even when he was injured so I I think this one that's a great one and we already have James Cook on there let's keep moving I love Tyreek 98 and a half is low but I'm just not going to do it um they don't even have the yards cuz he could literally have one run that covers that if they I love Brian Thomas this year he's a sick sick sick athlete so if they had a yards here I'd probably take that but don't see it Jaylen Wright I have him on my fantasy teams I think he's gonna be great touchdowns I could maybe see him being a touchdown vulture but I don't think he's gonna get enough touches to start the season okay we're gonna move past I'm going to scroll up and close that we already have a buffalo one with James Cook see like for Josh Allen rushing touchdown at 0.8x is silly but Kyler Murray rushing touchdown a 1.66 that we like that we like he didn't have a ton of rushing touchdowns last year but he's going to be healthy this year what's his rushing yards 31 and a half let's take a look Kyler Murray was hurt two years ago torn ACL or three years ago I guess was that two years ago had half of a season off came back the next season I mean he played pretty well last year I mean even coming off the injury he was hdden over that 31 and a half pretty regularly I just I'm interested to see the buffo Bill's defense first this though Marvin Harrison I'm intrigued by I think he's going to be amazing I I might put this higher in another pick because I already have James Cook right and like I'm I'm doing this by like order of magnitude of confidence like I want ones I'm super confident in in this play Marvin Harrison Jr like I think he's gonna be awesome and maybe I'll put that in a separate pick but I don't want to load up too much on this game Trey McBride kind of same way as well as Delta conade um okay let's move along here and close that one out and keep moving Anthony Richardson I have him in my fantasy leagues I think he's gonna be sick this is interesting because he had a rush he played two and a half games he had four rushing touchdowns last year but Jonathan Taylor's healthy CJ shroud 1.5 passing touchdowns 75 just don't like that at all what about tank Dell oh tank Dell longest reception is 21 and a half Tank Dell - Longest Reception over 21.5 yards yards the uh soft spot in the Colts defense is their secondary they do have Kenny Moore who's a good player but I think this one is intriging he had a beautiful touchdown in the preseason I think he is the type player where he just needs to touch the ball once and that that's like Xavier Worley like the way he plays how explosive he is that's light work when we start getting later in the season too we're going to Target kickers we're gonna like the kickers ones work there are some kickers that are great their teams don't score a lot in the Red Zone they end up kicking a lot some kickers miss a lot of field goals like we we everything will be on the table all right just figured out that I could just click claps all uh New England Cincinnati if I'm GNA pick anything it's G to be on the yeah see they know that jacobe is not long for it and he's goingon to throw an interception most likely it's not help helpful Jamar Chase I like who knows if he's going to play I don't really want to take the under if he does play right um Patriots offensive line is really bad so I would probably only really take someone from the Bengals and nothing really I don't I just don't want to touch that game kind of same thing with Pittsburgh and Atlanta because Pittsburgh this one's sneaky because Pittsburgh actually is gonna have probably a top five uh defense over the year and Atlanta I think has a lot to prove like I don't think it's a four gone conclusion that they're going to be sick although they should be but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion let's see here I feel like some of you who are fans of these teams are like would be yelling at this screen like what about this player like take this player I I get it I get it I'm probably going to I'm a Raiders fan so I'm probably going to end up not doing anything with them beon interesting interesting interesting interesting longest reception 12 a half yards I do like longest reception or just receiving yards oh Lord so they have their new offensive coordinator is Zach Robinson who was the quarterback's coach for the Los Angeles Rams last year the Rams weren't uh heavy let's look at Kiren Williams stats P I know I'm pulling up a new tab one I just had this one open let's look at what his receiving stats stats look like um yeah but he wasn't much of a pass catcher versus let's like a bejon even just Arthur Smith I had I took bejan I thought he was gonna be a League winner for me in my school league and it's just never going to get over it um again this will become more important as the season goes along because we can reference this information to make decisions um looking at historical information obviously not like entirely helpful because this is completely different team but I'm just curious I mean he was he was going over on those receiving Ys pretty pretty regularly I I'm just going to I think we're going to pass on that game for now I just want good players now this guy maybe I'll do like an all an all rookie one because I think I'm the league Neighbors on my fantasy teams this year I think he's incredible but what about Sam darnold to throw an interception also fumbles love lost higher that is Daniel Jones still is a fumble is definitely an intriguing pick definitely also to throw interception I'm kind of I kind of only want to bet on positive things but now like that's stored in the back of the brain right that one's a that one's okay we can we can do something with that um um on our next picks Rome I think DeAndre SE reception yeah I D'Andre Swift - over 11.5 Receiving Yards think he's gonna be used I mean I think we all saw the video of him Tak in a reception that little sick dump off pass from Caleb Williams for 45 yards I think he's going to be the check like the outlet and I Caleb Williams isn't a checkdown artist but any stretch of the imagination but he deand sft is a very solid pass Catcher And I do think that he's an explosive athlete enough to where in this office in this offense that as a rookie starting in his first game that they will have that as outlet for Caleb and so I think he can take a ball that's you know at the line of scrimmage and take that you know to the house or you know for 45 yards or whatever it is so 11 and a half feels really low to me let's look at his stats from last year if I remember correctly the Eagles used him almost more as like a Pure Runner yeah like look at all these carries he was is getting which is probably not the best way to use him like I think this is more just like a offensive philosophy like there's games where he's getting no targets even I mean 11 and a half seems low to me that this historical Trend doesn't bear that out but I think there was just there were things that were wrong with the Eagles last year so I'm going to put that in there um I need to see what is going to happen with the Titans offense before I make any decisions I don't want any parts of Carolina New Orleans I don't want any parts of Raiders Chargers Denver Seattle I'm high on javante this year he's another guy who can make usage but de there's rhan Johnson K Herbert but uh I feel like DeAndre s is gonna be the main pass catching back whereas javante Williams has Jill mcclaflin there so and ese who came out of Notre Dame so I don't I'm not super high on that now Kenneth Walker III - over 10.5 Receiving Yards here here's one that is a little bit of like Insider info um I read something this year that or this offseason that said uh Ryan grub about Kenneth Walker and this is part of why I drafted Kenneth Walker Ryan grub is the new offensive coordinator for is the new offensive coordinator um for the Seattle Seahawks he came from the University of Washington and his quote about Kenneth Walker was I think this guy's limit for him I think he's a really really talented powerful back that's a true three tool guy he's electric out of the backfield that's a pass catcher boom I think that is and these lines are just they just seem comically low uh Kenneth Walker stats 2023 let's see let's see and again different team different coordinator so like it's not hyper applicable but I mean you could see that he really just needs one and it's 10 and a half I mean he hit that in over probably around 50% of these games so I like that a lot um there's some value here on DK metf Rush plus reception touch I like that a lot too I think Denver's defense still has to prove that they're halfway decent I think the Seahawks offense is going to be good um in terms of games Jane Daniels rushing touchdown oh we're GNA want to put that in something for sure and and you'll notice when I pick games like sometimes it's just like I don't I don't really love these players I don't really I don't like I don't want to watch this game um you know I obviously like there's a it is important to look for Value everywhere um like I think Jerome Ford 46 and a half Rush yards is a worthy like a worthwhile look but um I really like these picks I really really like these picks total yards yeah I really really like these picks these are really low lines for really good players the only one like tank Dale 21 and a half reception like that's one of those ones where it's freaking Red Zone and they're like we're going to go to the Texans game look what tank Dell just did and it's him just like burning a Cults safety for a touchdown like you can just like see it happening or the DeAndre Swift screen pass or Kenneth Walker like busting through a guy off of like a a screen pass like Trevor Lawrence making something happen with his legs like these are things that I can Envision happening um this one I feel pretty good about I'm just looking through some of these other things because I'm gonna want to put together and probably leave The The J gonna want put together another one so I'm going to put 10 down on this one this one feels really First Week 1 Slate Set of Picks good and I feel confident in it so I'm G to put 10 confirm so to recap we have James Cook higher than 66 and a half total yards so that's rushing and receiving Trevor Lawrence higher than 15 and a half rushing yards tank Dale longest reception over 21 and a half yards DeAndre Swift more than 11 and a half receiving yards and Kenneth Walker more than 10 half receiving yards cool all right so I have two picks in the books um gonna go back to some of those additional ones I'm just gonna pop back over to this just to see if there's anything like because we had the Caleb Williams so I think it's worthwhile to use these free picks might as well Caleb Williams over .5 passing yards we'll take that let's see here see like this line is worse there was 31 and a half the other one stiff on Diggs I could see that being less but I don't want to bet on it let's see here receiving yards I do like Josh Jacobs this year he had there's a very similar quote about Josh Jacobs um that Mal had about three to back and they don't have anyone helping so he might actually be in my next go around on the other one but you can ah I see that's new to me also like I'm a Raiders fan it they didn't want to pay him he came he didn't go to training camp he was like kind of out of shape last year just it I don't I think he's going to have a bounce back season in averting form jonan Taylor I don't think they're going to I don't think Anthony Richardson's gonna be dumping down much let's see now I'm curious of okay Aaron Jones not interested it's kind of interesting to just see it in that view oh I wanted to take Rashad white Under rushing yards and his over receiving yards were hitting last year I'm gonna come back to this I just I don't really like the the price picks Jayden Daniels - Score a TD layout as much um okay let's I think this one is a great way to start and now that we get the spicy the juice play love that um let's see let's look at his Russian yards last year because I had him on my fantasy team and I traded him and he was still like the number eight running back in PPR but he never felt like he was having a good game so looking at so there I mean he was it was all receptions but and Baker is a check down Merchant but looking at the rushing it's 57 and a half like look at this efficiency 2.3 yards per carry Jesus okay so I'm double checking 57 and a half okay so we have 39 73 38 56 26 34 39 yeah I just hate betting unders so I like but I jayen Daniels to have a rushing touchdown I mean it dude's electric [Music] um I think DK metf to catch a DK Metcalf - Score a TD touchdown is very interesting I just actually think the Panthers are gonna win this game but I just don't any part of that Rome would be interesting for a touchdown and like if you have one that's all touchdowns in it hits It's craziness um this one would be good like the fumble I mean Daniel Jones to Fumble that feels this one's definitely more speculative let's just put it like that Kyler Murray rushing touchdown speculation purely and then I know I said I didn't want to do Green Bay but this is Josh Jacobs over receiving yards okay so if I put down $1 I make $104 on that if I put down five I make 522 so we have jayen Daniels rushing touchdown DK rushing touchdown d Jones to have a fumble Kyler Murray to have a rushing touchdown I think we could have something a little bit more what about like oh and Lamar no because I think Derrick Henry Josh Allen not going to good value there oh and then we had that's the other one I wanted Marvin Harrison it's not quite as Marvin Harrison JR - Score a TD crazy I mean I kind of love this now again this is this is like almost game script antithetical here I think that it's actually more likely that he's going to throw a touchdown to Marvin Harrison than run one in and I want so I need to find one more Derek car to throw an interception that seems like an absolute given I just doesn't have great odds I actually think we'll save that for we'll save that courland Sutton to have a touchdown let's go to this game yeah there's a reason why that's 6X it's never going to happen I think am monra have a touchdown what about leaport 1.4 well he's been injured though let's see see okay so now this is okay we're in week one Lions Rams they're down in the five you know within the five who are they giving the ball to they throwing it to leaport or they throwing it to a monra my mind tells me a monra but my heart tells me leaport it could be both man he's so good I I think it I think they're going to they would get the ball to their guy Amon-Ra St. Brown - Score a TD though I think they would get the ball to their guy which I think is a monra see that yeah let's go oh I mean look how he ended this season my God and I that Kansas City game yep he had see and again leor is now more established but I think they're going to a monra it so we have a mon ra Marvin har Daniel Jones to have a fumble I don't know about the Minnesota defense though and I kind of like that everything else is a touchdown so I'm actually GNA take that out jayen Daniels have rushing touchdown DK to catch a touchdown Marvin Harrison to catch a touchdown am manra to catch a touchdown is there a running back CD to Additional Search catch a touchdown also makes a lot of sense but Cleveland don't love that see and like I didn't really necessarily intend for this to turn out to be a touchdown one but now that we're doing it it's like it might as well he's definitely not going to rush but that's that's who we wanted I know Jonathan Taylor's there but yeah let's I think the thing is they're going to it'll probably be a bit of a balance between them rushing can I see per game please thank you one two one and then he went out this game but there's no Jonathan Taylor that one I might want to wait and see that's one that's worthwhile waiting seeing go back to the world tank Dell Jen Daniel is there a running back that I like oh how about Derrick Henry that one's not spicy enough though Mark Andrews though everyone's down on him haven't heard much about him he's been hurt car accident he is absolutely their number one enzone target Derrick Henry still maybe I just settle with four but I kind of want that juice I mean putting Jaylen right in here would be would make legitimately no sense chimney Christmas this one that's crazy I keep coming back to that Kyler Murray one man I don't think the Patriots are going to score much at all I don't really I'm a little worried about Falcons first week out there but dunesday is interesting okay Pard is the goal line back he they brought him in during the preseason as the goal line back but Tai Spear's also scored okay let's see if there's any value here the Dare card to throw interception will be another one I don't like any of that I don't like any of that at all Gus Edwards to score touchdown that's not bad I think folks I like all these I just want to find the perfect one to add on there's a couple that I like but don't love Jake Ferguson I mean Zeke's gonna be there okay I mean it's a touchdown Garret Wilson - Score a TD Merchant all right let's go to the last game it Garrett Wilson I actually think I think that's actually I think that's the one there Garrett Wilson I think that's the one I'm down on the 49ers this year let's see one three four all right we'll send that Second Week 1 Slate Set of Picks so let's do that confirm so we have Jayden Daniels to score a rushing touchdown DK metf to score a rushing a receiving touchdown Marvin Harrison to score rushing a receiving touchdown Aman Ros Brown to score rushing a receiving touchdown and Wilson score rushing receiving touchdown all right I have about 8 minutes left in this recording so I'm going to go ahead and do one more pick let's go ahead and recap what I have so Pick Recap far so my Thursday night opening day picks Isaiah Peko over 14 and a half receiving yards Xavier Worthy over 20 and a half reception receiving yards as the longest reception Rashid rice over 16 and a half receiving yards Travis Kelce just have just one total yard and Derrick Henry with a rushing touchdown second one this is my favorite one so far James Cook over 60 66 and a half total yards Kenneth Walker over 10 and a half receiving yards Trevor Lawrence over 15 and a half rushing yards DeAndre Swift over 11 and a half receiving yards and tank Dell over 21 and a half yards is the longest reception um I will maybe come back with another one before the games next week Outro and then um also try to do this on a more regular Cadence as we're going into the weeks and hopefully we'll start stacking up some wins um and we can build on some momentum but thank you everyone for joining hope you have a great week and super excited for the football season with you