and the season is definitely going to surprise us so according to Ralph's reseearch the preseason number one team would have made the cfp every season seven of those would have earned a buy which is interesting because it also means that three of them wouldn't have number two in the preseason poll would have made the playoff eight times so two times they did not Ralph broke this down in in a very interesting way he basically figured out here's how based on what we've seen for 10 years of data if you want to try to make a more realistic projection of what it's going to look like at the end of this season here's how you do it four of the top five teams so you take four of the teams in the current AP Top 25 four of the top five so Georgia's one Ohio State's two Oregon's three Texas is four Alabama's five you got to throw one of those out and say I think these four are going to make it which I think is kind of tough because I look at those and I'm like I don't know which one of those gets thrown out I have no clue I think all of those are going to make it you know if you look at my posts spring top 25 I had all of them in I had them all I I didn't have them all in that order but I that might be my top five if I recall correctly if it's not there's only one one slight difference so that's the part that makes this tough like you got to pick one of those and we spent all offseason saying all five of those are definitely in you got to pick one of those to throw out two teams ranked between six and 10 so you can only take two of those five well in the AP poll that's old Miss Notre Dame Penn State Michigan and Florida State well I I go back to my post spring top 25 the only one of those I don't have in the playoff is Penn State and they were one spot out I have no idea who to who to throw out here either and I it's a it's a good challenge to our group think our Collective group think Collective group think is a little bit redundant but I I I digress but it's a good challenge to our group think in the offseason where we just assume the these teams are the good teams and these teams are the ones that aren't going to make it so you got to pick two teams that are ranked between six and 10 two teams that are ranked between 11 and 20 now I go back to my my post spring top 25 I've I've got one of those teams in the playoff already in in my version of it I had Tennessee making it because I had them ranked in the top 10 I think I had them number 10 in my post ring top 25 so but I don't know who the other one would be in this situation so now one team ranked between 21 and 25 which also very interesting now in this particular iteration with the playoff working this way if you look at the that you probably say okay here's where you can pick your big 12 champ or you could pick your big 12 champ in the next one because the Big 12 feel so even that it could be one of the five ranked Big 12 teams in the preseason poll or it could be an unranked Big 12 team so we're going to do this exercise in a second but there's one more category that Ralph gave us you have to pick three unranked teams now there are no group of five teams ranked in the AP Top 25 preseason poll so that's one of them one of them will be the group of five representative whoever that is the highest also receiving votes from the group of five in the AP poll right now is Boise State so for them they have Boise State in there let's try this let's try this little exercise we will start with four of the top five so we're going to take one team out of the top five I'm taking out Texas I don't really have a reason for that I like all five of these I think all five of these teams are going to make the playoff but the exercise says you got to take one out so I'm going to take Texas out and say if we had to come up with a reason we'll say they we we they lost more than we realized they had to tr you know replace a lot of skill position guys in the transfer portal maybe they had injury issues remember CJ Baxter's already out with a preseason injury so let's let's just take that we'll take them out and we'll say Georgia Ohio State Oregon and Alabama made it and I guess we'll have to put them in that order I've got I got producer River trying to make a graphic on the Fly here so River let's say those teams are are going to be in that order but we'll just bump Alabama up to number four which means that Oregon will be number five the number five seed Alabama will be your number six seed the playoffs so we'll have Georgia and Ohio State getting buys as the SEC champ and Big 10 champ number one and number two so we still have to figure out an ACC champ and a big 12 champ those two will be the three and the four seeds depending on the order we decide they're in next two teams between six and 10 Old Miss Notre Dame Penn State Michigan Florida State I actually feel like I can come up with some legitimate reasons why the three I can pull out of here didn't make it but I'm I'm going to tell you right now I'm picking Florida State in here one because I think Florida State's gonna be really good and I and I do think Florida State's gonna win the ACC but I gotta have an ACC champ in this thing somewhere so that's one of the reasons why I'm picking Florida State I'm also going to pick Old Miss and I'll I'll I'll tell you why on that one too SEC media days Nick Sabin in his first major role as a as an ESPN commentator one of the first things he said was he believes Old Miss has bolstered itself on the line in scrimmage enough this offseason to be competitive with the top teams in the SEC and that's that was kind of my big question did did they get to that level I trust his opinion more than I trust most people's opinion on that so I'm I'm going to take Old Miss Notre Dame we talked about I think they would have to go 11- one against this particular schedule to get an at large maybe they don't maybe they lose to Texas A&M maybe they lose to Florida State if I've got Florida State in here they don't have to have beaten Notre Dame to get in they just need to win the ACC but we can we can say they did Penn State we can say the offense didn't turn around as much as they think Michigan we can say well they just they lost so much from that National Title team and and just came up short Willie T says bolstered what does that word mean it it means improved it means improved Willie means improved coach Prime who still has not answered the question about the offensive line loves his D line not answering questions about the o line all right so we have we have now six playoff teams we've now filled half the bracket river that means we've got ol Miss as the number six team and the number they would be the number eight seat no they'd be the number seven seed sorry they'd be yeah they they we' have them just at five because we took one out of the top five so we have Miss as the number seven seed we'll have Florida State as the number three seed because they're the ACC champ so we we fil through seven except we've got a hole at four which will be the big 12 champ and then we got to figure out who else gets in so one from 11 through 16 I can take the easy way out and say number 12 Utah is your big 12 champ but that might not actually be the easy way out because I still got to get three unranked teams in this list so who's that that going to be I'm going to save my big 12 champ spot for an unranked team I'm going save them and who knows maybe I'll maybe I'll throw an at large team in from one of these so I get two from 11 through 20 let's see if I can pull this off so 11 through 20 is Missouri Utah LSU Clemson Tennessee Oklahoma Oklahoma State Kansas State Miami and Texas A&M now I would probably in real life pick my big 12 champ from this list between Utah Kansas State Oklahoma State C they got Arizona down at 21 so I'd probably be picking my big 12 champ from this list but I've got to pick two from this group I'm going to pick Tennessee because I had them in my in my post spring top 25 actually making the playoff one more so do I pick the Big 12 champ or do I pick another at large do I pick Miami as an at large here could I dare do I dare chicken 155 says Boomer Sooner let's do that one because if Oklahoma goes 10- two against their schedule they're making the playoff let's pick Oklahoma and Tennessee here who by the way play each other all right so that would make Tennessee the eight Seed Oklahoma the nine seed in the playoff I'm not even worried about where where they're ranked in the playoff rankings anymore CU I'm just going to get confused uh river is texting me the running tab to make sure we got this right so I'm picking Tennessee and Oklahoma as my teams from 11 through 20 now I get one from 21 through 25 so that's Arizona Kansas USC NC State and Iowa if I'm doing it this way that I'm going to do NC State as an at large coming out of the ACC a second at large but I don't think I'm going to do that I've said I think Iowa could be a sneaky potential at large team because of its schedule now again we don't know what their quarterback situation is going to be but that one lends itself to the kind of record you're going to need to get in the defense is still going to be really good so I'm going to put Iowa in that next spot so that makes Iowa the 10 seed Iowa is your 10 seed so I've got three more spots to fill this is going to be very very tricky I've gotta I've got to pick a big 12 champ and I said I was going to use an unranked Big 12 team as your big 12 champ so I'm going to go with UCF as the Big 12 champ and then I've got a pick another I got to pick a group of five team I don't know who in the world to pick for the group of five team I am gonna go with appalachin State let's say appalachin State wins the Sun Belt maybe they even beat Clemson because remember I didn't pick Clemson as one of my playoff teams the AP has them ranked pretty high let's say they took a tumble so I'm going to pick appalachin state so your 12 seeds is going to be appalachin state your four seed is going to be UCF now I got to put one more team into the playoff oh boy who's it gonna be who's it gonna be because I would love to have Penn State or Michigan but that's against the rules of this exercise so do I pick another big 10 team because right now I've got three big 10 teams in there I've got Ohio State Oregon and I've got Iowa so is there another big 10 team that could make it or does a second Big 12 team make it does a second ACC team make it the two ACC teams that I could see being at large teams Miami and NC State they're in the preseason poll I can't pick them based on this exercise you know what remember we had Ari timkin on the show and he said watch out for this team I'm gonna say watch out for this team I'm gonna say West Virginia makes it as an at large gets that final atlarge spot because if I don't have Penn State making it maybe West Virginia beat them week one maybe that's the the non-conference win that's anchoring that that schedule and maybe West Virginia and UCF played a classic Big 12 championship game and they were both very good teams in the Big 12 maybe they maybe they were one lost teams going in the Big 12 championship game and UCF won and West Virginia lost I mean can you even imagine can you even imagine super producer river is now putting this graphic together of what this what this thing would look like I can't wait to see it because I'm I'm now I'm trying to go over my head what what the matchups are oh we got it we got it okay here we go very interesting remember how if the AP poll is correct we'll get the rematch at a different Stadium of Michigan and Texas same thing here so in this one you have Oklahoma going to nean Stadium remember Tennessee goes to Norman in September I believe that game September 28th appach state going to Eugene to play Oregon West Virginia Alabama and Tuscaloosa the bars in Tuscaloosa will be dry Iowa at Old Miss would be a heck of a lot of fun as well your potential Alabama West Virginia Florida State semi your potential old or Iowa at Ohio State semi Tennessee or Oklahoma playing against Georgia and again like we talk about the five seed being advantageous like the the five seed going to play UCF now where would the let's figure out where the quarterfinals would be remember the old Bowl associations do matter still for the next two years so Georgia has to go to the Sugar Bowl Ohio state has to go to the Rose Bowl Florida state would be going to the Orange Bowl but the Orange Bowl is a semi so Florida state would be in the Peach Bowl that UCF organ game would be in the Fiesta Bowl that would be very very interesting but that's that may look weird so that that 12 might look really weird but based on history we're gonna get something like that there's gon to be surprises and I'm glad because again this is a good reminder because we spend nine 10 months talking about all this stuff about what it's going to look like and then the first week just blows it all up so bring on the blowing it all up bring it on I'm ready for it I'm ready for the weirdness of whatever that playoff is thank you so much for watching just a reminder subscribe to this channel right here so you never miss an episode of Andy Staples on 3 and oh by the way watch all the other great videos on the on3 sports YouTube channel