who are the three players with the most at stake over the final month of the Season find out next on fantasy baseball today in [Applause] five welcome into fbtn 5 happy Labor Day weekend to all out there I am Frank SEL joined by Chris towers and the players with the most at stake over the final month of the Season Julio Rodriguez it's a tough season for jrod had a top three ADP coming into the season and we are recording this on Thursday August 29th but through 115 games 253 batting average 12 homers 18 18 steals a 670 Ops very clearly not healthy Chris I think we just need to see anything over the final month what do you think yeah I mean I I think he's going to be a super controversial player one way or the other but part of what's really unfortunate about Julio Rodriguez season is it did finally look like he was figuring it out in July remember he he sprained his ankle the third game back from the All-Star break he was hitting 375 with an Ops over 1100 in July before that misses about 20 days doesn't go on a rehab assignment just comes straight back from a high ankle sprain mostly limited to DH duties and it just clearly doesn't seem like he's healthy before that he was having the worst season of his career by far and what we've seen from Julio Rodriguez in his career is really slow starts and then he gets really hot in the summer and had ended up being basically a 3030 guy each of his first two seasons he hasn't done that this year would love to see a big September I think that would do a lot to quiet concerns but personally I'm kind of giving Julio Rodriguez a mulligan for this year he was really bad early on I have a lot of faith that he would have had a big second half and it just didn't happen because of the injury mostly and I'm willing to mostly write that off I'm not going to say he's like a number one overall pick he might not even be a first round pick but I have a hard time seeing Julio Rodriguez going outside of the top 20 next year the player who might have the most to gain over the final month of the Season or the most at stake rather is literally yeah because he is entering his free agency this offseason about to be 30 years old he's a Scott Boris client he's had a very fine season coming off a really rough augus 736 er a 160 Whip and we cited this recently Chris the fact that the cutter whiff rate swinging strike rate overall strikeout rate overall all have been trending down since 2021 and again he's about to be 30 years old it's not impossible for someone to just have like an outlier you know bounceback strikeout season but the trends would bet against that happening right now yeah I mean the the thing with Carin Burns is in some ways his profile feels pretty pretty safe right like he has a 330 is X erra which his actual ra is like 320 and so you look at that and it's like ah he's doing pretty much what you should have expected him to do but first four months of the Season he was a sub 25 ER looked like he might win the American League Sai Young was racking up wins and then this disaster August comes around and I think that the August is just a pitcher who's in Decline certainly had a really rough stretch that's my assumption if he goes out in September and stinks again keeps getting crushed cutter doesn't bounce back especially then it starts to be like is this really an ace or is this more like an sp3 with risk for Fantasy I think that's what's at stake I think we could be looking at a range where Burns could pitch his way back into the top 12 for sure next year I think there's a chance he's outside out of the top 20 let's wrap up with his teammate Jackson holiday who's had a rough go so far this season 36 games 169 batting average five homers one steel of 548 Ops plate discipline was supposed to be his his calling card his best skill frankly and it's been a disaster it's lots of strikeouts lots of uh chasing lots of swing and Miss overall for Jackson holiday this is another one that can go e either way Chris because if he has a big September I could see people talking themselves into a top 75 pick for next year or if he's just this bad maybe he gets demoted and we're talking about him as like a post hype sleeper for next season but uh yeah I think there's a lot of variance between what can happen here with Jackson holiday yeah I think there might be like a hundred picks worth of variance in in Jackson holidays potential ADP between now and the end of the year because one like you said this the contact skills have not been there and that's going back to Triple A he's been over matched as a major leager and hey look he's 20 he is younger than nine of the first 10 picks in the MLB draft this year that wouldn't be so concerning but then you look back at Triple A and he was 29th percentile in inzone contact rate and he was like 71st percentile expected Wan contact that combination bad plate discipline decent but not outstanding quality of contact is pretty scary and so yeah I I'm going to need to see a full month of like a 22% strikeout rate from Jackson holiday where he starts making a lot more contact overall to really want to buy in if it's you know we we've seen him hit for power now in the majors since he came back that we know that plays I need to see the contact uh skills show up all right for more extensive Fantasy Baseball coverage listen to the fantasy baseball Today podcast on Spotify Apple podcast The Odyssey app or anywhere else podcasts are found thanks for listening to Fantasy Baseball today and 5 and we will be back again tomorrow bye-bye