I think the thing I'm most curious about when I think about Michigan's defense against Texas's offense is how much wink Martell is going to Blitz Quin yers yeah I Quinn y's very first throw of that Colorado State game was like a tight window right like right in a guy's numbers and he just looked pretty unbothered most of the game and it's just one of those if if he's an unbothered tight window veteran quarterback now then sometimes you can have great coverage and a guy like that Stills make a still makes a play and he it's like he's keeping Arch Manning on the bench and I I have gone back in fourth at times about like what Quin yers is and isn't I thought that was very like a that was a very grownup performance I thought in week one and that anybody this this is Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country like anybody watching that I thought it was like okay like this is going to be tough to deal with this guy because I don't think we're going to shake him so I do think the Texas passing game is but if you're going to have that I mean like give me will Johnson to start with right I mean like that's a good way to start with pass defense but I just I think Quin I think Quinn Ys has a chance to have a big game um yeah all right other side of the ball Michigan offense versus Texas defense and and let's talk about running it first of all um Texas lost two defensive tackles who were among the best defensive tackles in the country last year one to the first round of the draft one to the second round of the draft they're playing guys now who are like veteran guys who have been around which kind of means they weren't quite good enough to beat out the guys who were there before and they stuck around and they've played 49 career games and they've made some starts and that kind of thing but I think you can see the drop off right and that's that's me being less of a hardcore ball guy than you that I think Michigan has an opportunity there now I do think it felt like the Texas linebackers got downhill against Colorado State actually thought Colorado state ran the ball okay at times and I think they averaged 3.7 yards per carry so it's not like they were all over the place but Anthony Hill Jr and David Benda at linebacker both like Hill especially he's a young guy I think he was a freshman All-American last year they talk about him as a future star I mean the future might be here he's GNA be chasing guys down and I think they're going to be downhill because I don't know that anybody is scared of the Michigan passing game right now so I think their linebackers are going to be downhill in holes and the Michigan offensive line I they admit they didn't play great last week I know Josh priba has talked this week and they all say they gotta play get play better they're working on I mean I think this week in practice not moving guys in and out as much just playing the same group of five they lost so much I mean they like basically lost their entire offensive line from last year and one of the things bill is they've had excellent Center play you and I were in love with Olu wua Timmy a couple years ago and Dr nent last year was really good they hit and hit twice in a row at Center and it's hard to keep doing that so Texas I think their defensive front their interior is not as good but I think Michigan UPF front their interior is not as good so yeah I think Michigan has to try I do think you might be able to run on Texas this year but it has to be Maxima Michigan the offensive line has to play better khil mullings is probably going to get a lot of work here we've talked about the idea that you know does he is he more of a hammer than Donovan Edwards is will he be a guy who they lean on for the rushing attack here I but I do I think maybe in the past you would have said I don't know if you can run on Texas I think maybe you can but Michigan has to run it better and the offensive line has to play better than it did in week one yeah it does feel to me a little bit like maybe Texas's defense has flipped from last year was like you couldn't really run on them because of what they had in the middle but you could throw on them if you had time to do it and now this year maybe you can run on them a little bit and they've kind of retooled the secondary in a way that might make them a little better pass defense wise but I I was looking up just like some Advanced stat stuff I I didn't want to like layer this preview with that but I I do think I think maybe these two numbers could be important I don't I don't want to rely on them too much because it was week one they were playing an overmatch opponent maybe they just weren't showing a whole lot and doing a whole lot but Texas came out of week one defensively ranked 76th in the country and rushing success rate and 93rd in the country and front seven Havoc rate so there just wasn't a whole lot going on up front for them against Colorado State and that could certainly just be the byproduct like I said of just keeping a pretty vanilla I don't think they'll be vanilla against Michigan but I think a lot of times when coaches kind of speaking the cliche if you make the biggest jump from week one to week two I think a lot of that has to do with offensive line play so if Michigan's offensive line is going to put for A Better Effort this week like I could definitely see some opportunity there I think you need a good Donovan Edwards game though I think you need the Donovan Edwards who typically shows up in big games and gives you like an 80 yard touchdown run kind of out of nowhere I I don't I don't think if Michigan gets the same effort that it got from Donovan Edwards last week that it can run the ball effectively enough to win this game but maybe they do get a good version of Adan Edwards yeah I but I think they have to run it because I I don't Michigan can't throw to win I don't think in this game and I do agree with you that I think everybody last year thought you could throw on Texas you and I I think both picked Washington to beat Texas last year in the semi-final because I think we both thought it was like the worst version of a matchup for Texas to go against Michael penx and roma dun in that passing attack because that was the weakness last year but um jayen Baron is back he had a pick in the in the opener he was second Team all sec in the preseason they have a couple other corner I think they're better at corner um I think they have some decent safeties and I I do I agree with you I mean it's flipped I think now the way to try to beat Texas is to try to run on Texas so like that's what Michigan that's that fits Michigan right so like last year you would have wanted to be Washington against Texas now I think you want to be Michigan but they have to throw it better so the receivers were basically not involved in week one Hon Love at tight end who's probably the best tight end in the country had eight catches on nine targets the receivers didn't do much Tyler Morris had three catches samage Morgan had two like you know that the Run game they ran a Jet Sweep to Sage Morgan on the first drive and that kind of thing I just JJ McCarthy really was effective last the last couple years in just being a guy who could make a couple plays a game and last year in adjusted completion percentage on throws of 20 yards or more JJ McCarthy was number two in the country behind the guy who won the Heisman so JJ McCarthy only threw about three passes per game last year that were more than 20 yards down the field but when he did Michigan was really effective at that Davis Warren was 0 of three on passes of 20 yards or more in game one so they have they have to have at least a little bit of the threat of that to open things up for the Run game and they don't yet and I think they have to try and so they know that like the receivers just have to be more impactful it can't only be coulston Loveland Davis Warren 15 of 25 for 118 last week again I don't think they're showing everything either it's the first start for a guy we get that his average death of Target was like okay he threw a pick on a deep ball like you understand that and he played 53 plays and Alex rorg he only played nine so I don't know I certainly am not necessarily anticipating that oh they were just holding Alex orgy and now he's going to play 20 or 30 snaps I don't know maybe that will be a bigger package for them but this is the greatest concern for me is that I do think Texas's pass defense is better and and I I just don't know about Michigan's ability to get the ball to anybody who's not coulston leveland yeah Michigan's receivers against uh Fresno State were targeted 13 times which is pretty low six catches for 34 yards out of that position group it's just it's just good enough um and Davis Warren I think probably missed a couple of throws Alex orgie definitely missed at least one throw that I can remember um so maybe they can clean some of that stuff up but it just doesn't yeah it doesn't feel to me like a dangerous receiving group and now it's also I think the strength as you as you laid out of Texas's defense Texas also add added Andrew makuba safety from Clemson I think is I think is pretty good really that's a great transfer Edition yeah yeah so I don't I don't love the sort of the opportunities there to to throw the ball for for Michigan necessarily I actually am wondering a little bit if there is more Alex orgy stuff if there are wonder if there's some 11 man run packages where you have Alex orgy out there as a guy you have to account for they can get pretty creative with that kind of stuff like we saw it as a wrinkle be effective a couple of years ago against Ohio State they like put Alex orgy in and they ran for like 20 yards you're not surprising people anymore with Alex orgy but if you can block it up and you got to account for all 11 people it's difficult to defend and as we've said like I I don't think run defense necessarily is the strength of Texas's defense at the moment so maybe there's something there maybe you get a really good Davis Warren game I don't know um so it's like or maybe the offensive line just takes like takes a tangible step forward like I don't I don't I don't think Michigan is a lost cause in this game offensively um but it does feel like it's going to have to be like pretty high level execution I think for Michigan to score as much as it needs to score to win our guy John in the YouTube comment says I think it's pretty funny how last year it was Michigan carries JJ he stinks now it's JJ was so good last year Michigan can't win without an elite quarterback it's crazy um I understand like feeling that I I did feel like that was a sentiment last year like I don't I think in the moment I don't know that I thought that was true I thought JJ was exactly the type of quarterback who could make plays when you needed him to and he did not carry the offense because he didn't have to carry the offense but the NFL liked what they saw and on third down on a couple big shots per game in a way that really mattered he really mattered and the idea like again that conversation was there for two years like Kade mamera they need better quarterback play than that it got him to the playoff in 21 but JJ needs to elevate it I think maybe in 22 he elevated it a little bit I thought in 23 like I think the Ohio State game was an example of it like just a couple throws a game that are Elite throws and Michigan's always going to be I think as you said Chiron Moore this is Jim Harbaugh DNA they're always going to be a run first team you can see it with how they use personnel and line up and that kind of thing but you have to have the threat of that enough to back people off a little bit and that is what you have I mean obviously you're wondering about that right now when you have this quarterback situation and if they can't do it if they can't back them off and the linebackers get downhill and there's no threat with the receivers down the field I think it could be a very long day for Michigan yeah I I think it could as well I I I I do have like there were just times last year and like the personnel's different I understand that but like Michigan would just put out seven offensive linemen a couple of tight ends create super wide rushing surfaces and just kind of like dare you to be able to cover all of it and then operate those run schemes with like expert efficiency and precision yep and the idea is like if you can get into that stuff and then you have like Alex orgy as a runner to throw on top of it like I I can see that as a winning recipe for Michigan I just don't know I just don't know if their personnel given that it's so new is quite ready for that just yet all right so let's go to our picks then Bill Landis what do you think is going to happen this line was three and a half before the season after week one it moved as high as seven and a half now what I'm seeing is down to seven I think a lot of people is like oh now you're giving me like Michigan more than a touchdown that becomes like a very appealing bet for people and so I think the line has moved back a half a point as a result what's your pick for this can I give you two things real quick before I give you my pick um you can Texas was number 120 in the country last year in Red Zone touchdown percentage uh which is like a statistical anomaly that it kind of makes no sense to me they got to the playoff being that inefficient in the Red Zone uh there were seven of seven against Colorado state but I do think that's an area worth keeping an eye on because I don't think doing it that well against Colorado State means it's fixed uh and then one other guy to mention because we don't we don't really talk special teams doin Zada Michigan's kicker hit from 45 53 and 55 last week against Fresno State if it becomes a game where field goals matter uh I can see him being a guy who maybe wins a game for Michigan but uh I don't have Michigan winning I have Texas winning 2820 um I don't I just don't think there's enough for Michigan's offense to keep up I I I don't think Texas's offense is going to go crazy on Michigan's defense because Michigan's defense I think is legitimately very good especially in the front seven I think they will give Michigan or give Texas excuse me all it can handle but but there's enough uh explosive plays from Texas's offense to be the difference and Michigan won't be able to respond in kind with its own offense so a close game I guess it's a cover um even with the expanded spread but I have I have Texas 2820 and I have Texas 3117 and again I think this happens a lot where that's a two-score game it's a one-score game and it's close and Michigan has an opportunity but they can't quite take advantage in the second half and now Texas you know Michigan's trying to drive and they miss a third down throw and they pun it back to Texas now Texas gets it back now they drive for a score to go ahead 14 with seven minutes left right now it's a two-score game but it's been a one-score game for most of the game I don't think Texas blows him off the field because I think the Michigan defense is too good for that but this is a lot of this is just Quinn ERS has been doing this and Davis Warren hasn't and in a game like this that is a huge Edge and I just think Quinn yers is not going to be rattled and we did note that Quinn yers has addressed Michigan has the team up north right he has a little scooch of that Ohio State in him from his uh fora in Columbus for a year and now he get to go play in the big house man yeah that's actually quite funny um and I think Ohio State fans will be cheering for Quint newers this week yeah yeah know it's one of those things but as Becky points points out uh we can hate both Michigan and the southern school so again like this is everybody right you got your rival but let's save let's just save a little bit at and energy for the South so again I'm not I don't think Ohio State fans are getting a root against Texas excuse me are getting a rout for Michigan and against Texas in this game we get that it would be great I'm not but like everybody everybody else in the north root for Michigan right like root like come on I get it when it's your rival you get an exemption but everybody else should be hoping Michigan gets this done