PPI Stock Market Open Live & Crypto September 12, 2024

welcome back to another stock market open live stream today is a PPI day that is uh we get the producer price inflation report uh we don't really expect to terribly much out of this honestly uh but then again we didn't expect too terribly much out of CPI and it came in a smid hotter than expected probably driving the Federal Reserve towards 25 and then maybe some doish in the statement obviously uh you know anything could happen here with PPI but uh it seems unlikely uh that we're going to have anything wild uh but uh who knows same thing as yesterday you know sometimes when the expectation is so low it's uh kind of um easy to uh disappoint uh so uh we'll see uh all right so what do we got we're about 2 minutes away and uh what what else do we have uh today at uh oh at today at 6: today 600 p.m. today we have the flash sale expires expiring 600 p.m. flash sale there we go okay we'll throw that on in and there we go Okay cool so PP Isles let's go look at the expectations oh wow those are low uh expectation see every time they come in with these low expectations it's always it's always is a little nerve-wracking because it's like okay we could screw those up uh well we got PPI survey at um what we got 0.1 month over month core0 2 core less trade 02 then on the uh year-over-year we have 1.7 and the year-over-year food energy we have 2.4 uh X those things so um let's see what we got about a minute to go uh then let's see here uh ECB did cut this morning I did see some uh notes come through on the ECB you know I thought their inflation forecast was interesting uh they have uh oh where was it here it is uh expectations for inflation forecast 2 and a half in 2024 2.2 in 2025 1.9 in 2026 core 26 think will end up being 2% they did end up cutting uh 25 everything's broadly as expected and let's see here inflation's declining the way they would expect still expect to keep the policy rate sufficiently restrictive for some time to finish the job so to speak okay uh all right let's see here just hope they don't overdo it uh if they don't overdo it they're going to have little statues in people's front yards all right so okay there it is oh of course it all comes in like 0. one hotter uh so this is what happens again when you have low expectations 0.1 hotter on month over month 0.1 hotter on month over month core uh X food energy 0.1 hotter X food energy trade each of those come in 0.1 hotter that's not great uh then you've got uh year-over-year number bang on 1.7 year-over-year uh X food energy comes in 2.4 initial jobless claims come in a smidge higher at 230 uh versus the expectation of 226 with a 1,000 additional revision continuing claims the same at 1850 as expected with a 7K revision up on uh the um uh what called uh uh 7K revision up on the prior uh continuing claims this is probably going to drive yields up here since uh you do very clearly have a uh a beat here across the board oh but you do have revisions oh interesting now that's going to H all right well H uh now you have the prior that was actually revised from 01 to zero and the prior X food and energy was revised from zero to to .2 so that's a little odd on PPI because you actually revised down2 X food energy but then this one came in up point1 above expectations it's a little blurry usually markets don't trade so much off the revision they seem to trade more off of the uh the actual uh monthly report there and the monthly numbers there are all up 0.1 so uh cues are still a little unclear as to uh what they have uh okay yeah no it does look like the q's want to sell down on this uh so again a smidge higher there on the uh actual PPI month over month but again you have that lower Vision by 0.1.2 so kind it's almost balanced there I say uh and then you have those uh initial claims coming in a smidge higher than expected with some more continuing claims but honestly I don't think that any of this really matters that much uh you know initial jobless claims are highly lagging uh this these PPI expectations were incredibly low uh so not a surprise that you get a little bit of beat especially if you're comparing to a lower revision so w okay all right uh let's go look at the actual I generally dislike going through the PPI report uh just because it's so you know it's it's four stages of demand that they look at it's very complicated to really see what's going on in there so let's just look at the uh the cover of the report uh final demand prices were unchanged in July and Rose 02 in June that's the revision the August rise in the index for final demand can be traced to traced to a 4% increase in final demand Services okay not ideal final demand Services it's usually where you're seeing some pressure from uh you know the FED trying to get some of these numbers uh you know to to start moving a little lower right prices for final demand less food energy Trade Services Advanced three in August the same as July for the 12 months ended August uh the FI the index for final demand less food energy Trade Services moved up 3.3 uh okay final demand Services after declining final demand Services Rose 4% in August after declining. 3 in July nearly 60% of that is attributable to a. 3% increase in the index for final demand Services less trade transport and warehousing uh okay final demand Services less trade move for final demand Services yeah I I I this is an interesting one product detail 4.8% rise in guest room rental was a Oh here it is look at this a 4.8% rise in the index for guest room rental was a major factor in the August advance in prices for final demand Services the index for Machinery vehicle wholesaling fuels residential loans professional commercial equipment blah blah blah all this fell admissions fell so is this right here guest room rentals had some kind of weird Spike weird okay uh you know you did also in the CPI report see a bump in uh the uh air fairs category and in the lodging away from home category so it seems like there is some kind of weird like decline in June and July and then a popup in August on uh some of those uh those levels there the final demand or on on um oh why is that so hold on ah sorry that was the mic was a little louder there than it usually was I think uh I think either Max or a baby or something accidentally hit a diala uh I know let me get a better balance here test test test yeah I think this is probably better hopefully that's not too quiet I don't know I'll look at some of your comments here but anyway okay so that's interesting uh okay I I I again I don't know that you know this really matters right now and uh let me uh we're going to write down some of these notes in a moment here but I want to see what uh btcz is doing on this so you've got yeah BTC is moving down on this as the cu's are some disappointment there somebody says louder is better somebody says too quiet ah yeah your opening seconds woke up my neighbors oh uh okay yeah what happens I I'll bring him in here and you know Ella L she'll she'll kind of do this and start grabbing things so uh I got to be uh I got to be careful I don't I don't know how else that could get slid up like that and it's kind of like perfect in that range but anyway all right so sorry about that I will um hopefully this is better but yeah I was wondering yesterday too I'm like why are my videos coming in with such hot volume I guess that should have been a an indicator to me when I filmed the video yesterday I had to like turn it down quite a bit Yeah that would have probably been a good indicator oh well so uh okay let's see here let's uh let's write some of this down all right so PPI we're going to call it um uh all month over Monon figures 0.1% above expect ations however uh let's write that down however prior month over Monon expectations revised down 0.1% month over Monon and 0.2% uh month over month less food energy let me just fact check that I got that correct I'm pretty sure I did uh yeah yeah that is what happened uh yeah in the year-over year number was actually revised down too oh that's very interesting huh that the year-over-year revision wasn't actually in yet when we were looking at it now it is okay so year over-year uh at expectations 1.7% and 2.4% x uh food energy okay and then when you go uh year year over-ear X food energy trade you're at 3.3% and there was no survey for that uh and then the year-over-year uh revision minus .1 uh so down to uh or I'll just say revise down 0.1% uh and year-over-year Year all actually all year over year Figures were revised down prior month over month revised down 0.1 month over month and point to less food and energy okay all year-over-year figures revised down last month by 0.1% so the revisions kind of helped land you a little lower I want to see if Rick is yelling about the revisions it was huge head snapping revisions on dude that was priceless oh my god dude this guy it's it's perfect dice it anyway one once it didn't make a big difference in the market because the tell's already in what's going to happen next week let let's bring in former um I want to bring in Roger Ferguson former fed Vice chair and former president CEO of Tia a Roger I I think about you sometimes that that you're you're one of these people that gets paid to worry I I think and you I think you were really worried about uh inflation staying sticky and not being totally vanquished and I'm just wondering now whether you're in a good place uh about what the fed's getting ready to do and I I I think have you come around to the notion that that um you need to worry a little bit less at this point or still worried well look I two or three different questions and that let me answer them in order first I think the 25 basis point uh reduction at the upcoming meeting is uh I'm going to have to clip that and be like when you've done this job too long I've never understood where the 50 basis point concept came from so 25 basis points I think is uh the most likely expectation and perhaps more of the same this year point two um you know headline inflation has been moving very gradually down um and so I think there's still some reason to be worried but point three um and Rick santell is right you can take these apart and slice and dice them what I've been focused on is places that do appear to be consistently sticky one of which is housing uh and I think there's something structural going on there so overall count me still in the camp of yes I think the fed's right to be more comfortable that inflation is coming down but I think they're going to be on a very gradual path because there are some elements of stickiness there that we just simply can't ignore you you are still worried I thought maybe you were and like I said that is you consistently have been right as we've pointed out many times about that I think Rick's been worried about that as well but most people at this point have shifted their main concern to to growth worries now Roger and they're they they don't seem to give inflation concerns the same weight anymore I think that's um again you know overdone um so people gotten very focused on the unemployment number where it's moved up quite significantly you know I remind people that the number 4.2 um in the old days we'll put it that way was considered close to Full Employment yeah and see that's exactly what I'm worried about I've mentioned that a few times that uh you know people like this are going to go oh well you know back in my day the unemployment rate you know under 5% was great and then it's going to be like okay buddy yeah let it go back to 5% and see what happens next you knowz once once you start getting the unemployment rate moving up and you're just sort of ignoring it like well you know historically that was okay then it just keeps going cuz it it's it's one of those flywheels that once you start it's so hard to stop and I personally think there are a lot of companies right now that are just on the edge on the bleeding edge of layoffs and I hey you know I could be wrong but uh uh you know I I know there's been a lot of Labor hoarding but I think there are a lot of companies that are like man okay hopefully we don't go into a recession but if we go into a recession we're starting to make our list it's like Santa Claus okay all right hey Becky that's right gilad this morning saying that their twice yearly shot for HIV prevention um actually prevented almost almost all cases of HIV in a study of men who have sex with men there were only two cases out of about 2,000 people that's actually good for gay people being able to like give prevent that that's that's so terrible for that Community uh anyway somebody here says Kevin you were too used to government spending to hold unemployment down shame sh you're going to like you're going to like throw like holy water at me um yeah maybe uh you know it's it's possible that uh uh you know government infrastructure spending government hiring uh it could be the reason why uh Unemployment uh is is you know in that 3 to four range I'm just more worried I I I I don't disagree with you that you know 5% is okay my concern is just what happens when you are on the trajectory of going from you know three and a half to five uh well then you might be on the trajectory towards six or seven or eight and then you're in recession like you know you knock on the door of 6 seven or eight you're in a recession uh so so that's the problem yeah yeah yeah yeah uh so let's see what else here what sites are good for economic data I really like St Louis Fred with an r in there St Louis Fred dude who's this guy he's going to sell me a Monopoly board collaborative which put out today's report saw by the way joins us from the annual Latina showcase latitude that's in San Diego CNBC is a media partner of latitude and our parent Comcast is a sponsor of the event so break this down for us what did you learn in this report what should people be paying attention somebody says or a casket good morning to everybody uh it's a pleasure to be here the the the good news again once again is that the Latino cohort is almost like a half Silver Bullet for our economy in terms of boing everything uh whether it be the complete GDP number of 3 .6 trillion it's about manufacturing almost $450 billion dollar worth of manufacturing accounting for about 177% of our manufacturing uh productivity in inside our country it's about population growth it's about entrepreneurship it's about pres okay I have no idea what this guy's talking about so I'm going to get off this says uh more of a big fan of Adam Smith yeah so you know in Wealth of Nations the idea is that you should let the free market oh I do want to listen to this guy a little bit uh you should let the free market Reign not uh not so much government intervention but you know that's not politically popular because the free market uh you know really is brutal uh at businesses and employment and honestly probably rightfully so is it is it is it correct yes is is it well received by Regulators absolutely not you see this I find it fascinating the reaction to an 8020 AI Innovation the US Embraces the 80 and doesn't look at the 20 as much as it should Europe completely Embraces the 20 downside and forgets about the 80 upside this was a point dragy was making on Tech I'm laughing because essentially you're trying to lead Muhammad to say something negative about the German reaction function to he basically said it about European bureaucracy sure he he he talked a lot in in much more diplomatic terms but that was sort of what he was trying to get to you I wasn't going to ask questions about the difference between sort of Italian culture Banks versus say French and German and why the German labor representative seems to think they have more in common with the French banks than they do the Italian Banks I wasn't going down that road will you go down the road of AC Milan should be owned by a German I think it should be owned by a Frenchman I no I said that repeatedly CU you what's going on on these shows today uh just talking complete nonsense uh all right whatever there must be a slow news day I mean I thought we did just have some news but whatever so uh let's see how how are things holding up on all this so uh BTC is trying to get down to a big support line the good news is it has a big support line to get to that ain't far away uh that telling you man that 57580 line woo it's uh it's remarkable uh uh you know how uh uh uh supportive that one has been so I like watching that one uh djt oh wow uh we are now down we were down 10.4 yesterday it's actually not as bad as started out out in the day down 2% at the end of the day Al you did have a really nice sudden rally in like Nvidia which was really cool uh I mean Nvidia uh I think yeah look at that up 8% yesterday it's crazy and look at where it bounced it bounced out roughly at my 101 number within about eight pennies of that and really once it broke out of the 10808 line explosion uh so uh good for good for NVIDIA uh still a little bearish there on BT you've got uh Tesla and dropping down about a percent here so had a little gap down there on some of those numbers that came out that's all right uh palantes still knocking on the door 35 pretty impressive spot there oh I do want to hear Christine for a moment Stu see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 24 2.2% in 25 and 1.9% in 26 as in the June projections inflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year partly because previous sharp Falls in Energy prices will drop out of the annual rates in inflation should then decline towards our Target over the second half of next year for core inflation the projections for 24 and 25 have been revised up slightly as Services inflation has been higher than expected at the same time staff continue to expect a rapid decline in core inflation from 2.9% this year to 2.3% in 25 and 2% in 26 domestic inflation remains high as wages are still rising at an elevated Pace however labor cost pressures are moderating somebody's like she's like a retired James Bond villain wages on inflation financing conditions remain restrictive and economic activity is still subdued reflecting weak private consumption and investment staff project that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 24 rising to 1.3% in 25 and 1.5% in 26 this is a slight downward revision compared with the June projections mainly owing to weaker contribution from domestic demand over the next few quarters we are determined to ensure that inflation returns to our 2% medium-term Target in a timely manner we will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim we will continue to follow a data dependent and meeting by meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction in particular our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of inflation Outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data the Dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission we are not pre-commit to a particular rate path the decisions taken today are set out in a press release available on our website as announced on March 13 2024 some changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy will take effect from 18th of September in particular the spread between the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate will be set at 15 basis points the spread between the rate on the marginal Landing facility and the rate on the main refinancing operations will remain unchanged at 25 basis points so I will now outline in more details how we see the economy and inflation developing and we'll then explain our assessment of Financial and monetary conditions turning to the economic activity the economy grew by 0.2% in the second quarter after 0.3% in the first quarter falling short of the latest staff projections growth stemmed mainly from net exports and government spending private domestic demand weakened as households consumed less firms cut down business investment and and housing investment dropped while Services supported growth industry and construction contributed negatively according to survey indicators the recovery is continuing to face some headwinds that's not good my friend expect the recovery to strengthen over time as rising real incomes allow households to consume more the gradually fading effect of restrictive monetary policy should support consumption and investment exports should also continue contributing to the recovery AS Global demand Rises the labor market remains resilient the unemployment rate was broadly unchanged in July at 6.4% at the same time employment growth slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter from 0 3% in the first recent survey indicators point to a further moderation in demand for labor and the job vacancy rate has fallen closer to pre-pandemic levels fiscal and structural policies should be aimed at making the economy more productive and competitive which would help to raise the potential growth and reduce price pressure in the medium term Mario dr's report on the future of European competitiveness and en rola's report on empowering the single Market stress the urgent need for reform and provide concrete proposals to make this happen implementing the eu's revised economic governance framework fully transparently and without delay will help help governments bring down budget deficits and debt ratios on a sustained basis governments should now make a strong start in the direction of their medium-term plans for fiscal and structural policies okay all right I think we got a good little sample there uh this uh this idea here of so far the labor market remains resilient I always think is interesting because what you what you you balance this with is what she just said which is hey the economy fell short of expectations private domestic demand weakened households consumed less firms cut down on Investment Housing investment growth dropped and Industry and construction contributed negatively and uh unemployment growth fell to just 2% in the month so you have this um uh you know real risk of of Po entially slowing down much more than these central banks want and uh they might be looking too much in that rearview mirror and overdoing it uh there was another little note I saw here it says uh this is not me it's it's a a doomberg but another doomberg here says unemployment claims May overstate the health of the labor market due to declining eligibility for benefits shrinking compensation levels for documented workers and Rising unemployment among recent migrants so so basically the unemployment claims may be giving a false sense of confidence uh they think so um yeah anyway but uh none of this I think is uh suggestive of getting a big old fat 50 Bizzle cut the overall growth in labor cost is moderating no wage price spir per employee fell further to 4.3% in the second quarter the fourth consecutive Decline and ECB staff projected to slow markedly again next year despite weak productivity unit labor cost grew less strongly in the second quarter by 4.6% after 5.2% in the first quarter staff expect unit labor cost growth to continue decline over the projection Horizon owing to lower wage growth and a recovery in productivity finally profits are continuing to partially offset the inflationary effects of higher labor costs the disinflation process should be supported by receding labor cost pressures and the past monetary policy tightening gradually feeding through to Consumer prices most measures of longer term inflation expectations stand at around 2% and the market based measures have fallen closer to that level since our July meeting you know what's interesting is I remember uh you've actually got gold hopping a little bit right now up 79 and uh there are quite a few institutions that really like exposure to gold right now just because they think gold can move up soft Landing or not uh you know certainly in recession uh I I'm not convinced by that usually in a soft Landing gold performs poorly and in a recession it skyrockets so it's it's less of that dual bet you know something uh I was talking to uh course members about yesterday was was you know in in this position in the market where I think valuations are still Rich uh and I think this Euphoria around oh it's just all going to only go up is high uh and investable cach is low and recession indicators are high I I personally would rather uh uh you know lean towards something that does well that does okay in a soft Landing uh but does really well in a recession and so that's why I got a you know uh you know nearly multi-million dollar bet going and we talked about that bet yesterday we'll talk about it probably some more today uh but uh yeah it takes like a whole 20 minute or more explanation to really go through but uh if you want to see that video uh that course live yesterday make sure you use your flash sale coupon code before 6:00 today and uh you'll be you'll have lifetime access so I got another crazy big bet in 3 months you'll know about it five years you'll know about it it's kind of cool uh go to meet kevin.com to learn more about that okay let's see what else there is here from her by contrast inflation may surprise on the downside if monetary policy dampens demand more than expected or if the economic environment in the rest of the world worsens unexpectedly yeah like the US Financial and monetary conditions Market interest rates have declined markedly since our July meeting mostly owing to weaker outlook for Global growth and reduce I remember they used to say the risks to inflation remain to the upside now they're saying the risks to growth are tilted to the downside tightening of financial conditions in the riskier market segments overall financing costs remain restrictive as our past policy rate increases continue to work their way through the transmission chain the average interest rates on new loans to firms and on new mortgages stayed high in July at 5.1 and 3.8% respectively credit growth remains sluggish amid weak demand Bank lending to firms grew at an annual rate of 0.6% in July down slightly from June and growth in loans to households edged up to 0.5% money as measured by M3 grew by 2. yeah all right this getting a little boring okay um so right now we're pricing in 15.8 uh% chance of a 50 basis point cut it just basically guarantees that we're going to be getting the 25 we kind of already knew that and uh let's see here uh Nvidia oh Nvidia did just drop off a little bit yeah well let's R flat right now flat on Nvidia flat on the qes uh end phase down slightly btc's literally about to be at my line Tesla down about 13 was only up 87 bips yesterday uh what else is notable here Apple still at 222 Red Robin gourmet burgers up 4% in pre-market uh that's it we're going to the Moon Moon YOLO oh that was the bear the bear uh okay oh how's Mickey D been Mickey D A little run there couple days ago actually look at that zoom out on the day chart here oh that's nice look at that since earnings really popped off quite a bit I actually think McDonald's typically does well uh you know relative to other stock in a recession that doesn't mean it doesn't go down uh but uh it it seems to do better if you just look at prior recessions no guarantees that'll be the case now uh who was talking about this oh I think it was JP Morgan as well I was going to cover it but they were talking about how uh profitless tech companies uh profitless tech companies uh they somebody here says those who bought gold that 2,000 have finally broken even on their investment great job those who buy gold now will need it to be 3100 to break even Bull and exchanges getting rich I think what you're referring to is uh the fee of actually having uh physical gold Shi to you and the minting fees and all that stuff I mean you're basically adding 20 25ish per there uh you know you could just buy IOU you know that's not a pitch for it but that's a that's a goal old ETF that gives you uh liquidity you know so that's an interesting one uh physical gold premium yeah yeah exactly yeah no I I I do find that to be a little challenging but anyway so uh yeah JPM was talking about Arc a bit uh not directly mentioning Arc they were just talking about unprofitable tech companies and they're like those were amazing during covid when there was like you couldn't basically lose money in in markets uh cuz you know even if your company lost money it just kept going to the Moon uh and um they're like this is this is the most punishing Market to profitless tech companies right now mention kind very interesting what's worse not holding your gold or not holding your keys to bitcoin oh well CU it depends uh oh look at that that popping off now let's go right above the line so Kevin why is Roku up $4 it's a scam uh Roku uh well was up 7% yesterday uh it's got some liquidity pre-market here let's see what's going on with the Rog the Rog of the coup somebody says I sell gold for a living premiums are not only about premiums are only about 3% per ounce and up to 15% for smaller coins that makes sense yeah I don't know where that 20 25% came from I wonder if they're talking about uh shipping uh but shipping hasn't been that expensive uh Roku Rises as wolf upgrades sales growth and falling risks all right well there's there's your Roku so Roku upgraded by wolf uh falling risks and upside growth and they're pretty uh pretty low there McDonald's extends $5 meal in battle for cash strap bar buyers the chain will extend the $5 meal [Music] McDonald's is also releasing app exclusive promotions see they're brilliant I mean this is this is just the game you have to play in this environment you know uh so McDonald's uh app exclusive promotions like $2 chicken sandwich actually sounds pretty good right now and uh what else we got here $5 [Music] meal that started in June is being extended lifted guest counts by 3% that's [Music] interesting broader reset in value offerings uh fast food chains are competing for cost conscious gas blah blah blah all right n to McDonald's 99 cent may work for who really eats McDonald's oh well it's not technically food but you know it it does fil you okay that's evil a kid uh okay don't sue me bro poopy doopy I got to have a don't suee me bro here somewhere don't I I think I do oh yeah don't sue me bro that's funny coupon code expiring soon link below this is not personalized Financial advice don't fight by the dip all right so let's see here Nvidia nine bips to the upside now okay we saw that on the revisions JP Morgan JP Morgan to cap Junior Banker hours okay let's see what this says uh let's see here JP Moran two Wall Street investment banks are rolling out measures to ease Junior Bankers workloads amid complaints that hours are creeping past 100 hours a week now you'll be limited to 80 hours per week oh okay oh the bankers open AI is getting closer to releasing its new artificial intelligence model known as strawberry that could perform some humanlike reasoning according to a person familiar with the matter open a i decl to comment this technique is sometimes referred to a Chain of Thought prompting uh somewhat different than what people have come to expect before responding to a user's prompt the new software will pause for a matter of seconds while behind the scenes considering a number of related prompts and then summarizing what appears to be the best response interesting dokie oh they're doing some Q&A thank you very much for your two questions um you know on your first questions um we can all count it is 6 weeks before October 17th which is a relatively short period of time compared to other intervals that we've had in the past I would simply repeat what I have said we are going to be data dependent we are going to decide meeting by meeting I'm not giving you any commitment of any kind as far as that particular date is concerned and our path is not predetermined at all on the on the other matter that you referred to um typically we do not comment on uh individual institutions and uh as as you know well we have a clear procedure which involves our supervision Authority the SSM which at certain thresholds of um equity ownership or transfer of of of shares if you will has to be consulted has to authorize and of course I'm confident that the authorities of these institutions concerned namely unicredit and Commerce Bank will be perfectly aware of their regulatory requirements and will comply with such requirements the SSM will do what it has to do uh in full Independence and uh clearly crossborder mergers have been hoped for by many authorities and it will be uh very interesting to see that process and fold in the weeks to come thank you and the next question goes to mark shers of Bloomberg Mark please yes thank you um the first one um you said again that the rates needs to be sufficiently restrictive for some time um how many times can the ECB cut interest rates um before they are no longer sufficiently restrictive so basically where do you see the so-called neutral rate and the second one is more on the effect of interest rate Cuts how much of a boost could such Cuts deliver to the euro area economy given that at least some if not most of the problems are structural thank you I'm going to thank you for your two questions I'm going to spend a bit more time on your second question because on the first one you know how long are you are we going to be sufficiently restrictive until we have been sufficiently restrictive because what we want is to achieve the goal of returning inflation to Target in know this is kind of boring the fifth projection exercise we have inflation at Target during the second half of 2025 and that is on the basis of the Baseline that we have in our projection and we're going to observe how that Baseline evolves over the course of time as data comes in to decide for how long we have to continue uh cutting rates and at what point we have been sufficiently restrictive so I'm not going to give you any idea as to where uh our star is because this is an unobservable concept anyway and we will as we get closer to it we will know certainly better U as as you probably know staff has produced a very good uh paper on allar which indicates that all right uh take a look at this this is uh Microsoft lays off 650 video game workers uh so they bought blizzard and then just laid off a bunch of people I always hate seeing that because it's like we want new video games uh that's a bummer laying off 650 employees from blizzard they acquired Activision the layoff layoffs are mostly in corporate and support walles all right mostly they say no studios will be closed games cancelled sure significant downsizing in the global industry demand for interactive entertainment shot up during the pandemic following Decades of mostly steady growth consumer spending declined in 22 and has only rebounded modestly since then heavy moves into AI this follows Xbox's decision to let go of roughly 1900 workers at the start of the year and the closure of three studios in May wow that is a bummer oh well it is what it is uh all right what else what else my friends what else I don't know a little more let's see if somebody asked her a good question gives me a chance to actually um command the dragy report you know it's we haven't had time to dis everything neither has anyone for that matter because it it's sufficiently substantive and and material enough to require more time and and and special attention but it's a formidable report in that it it poses a diagnosis which is severe but which is just in our view and it also points to structural reforms practical proposals to achieve oh that's highly boring okay let's get off this I don't even want to I don't I don't even want to see her anymore there okay that's boring too fine then here we'll look at the q's uh this is Roku there look at the q's all right Microsoft uh so we saw that uh Xbox uh expected to lay off 1,00 workers at start of year oh I wonder if you're going to get a lot of start of year layoffs and then Microsoft now would you have 650 employees play a layoff at blizzard w w although I wonder how many people work there let's see how employees at blizzard blizzard 177,000 wow I didn't know there were that many honestly 650 177,000 3.8% okay Xbox and then how many employees work at Xbox Microsoft gaming 20,100 I don't know if that includ oh Xbox has 5,000 employees oh well 1,900 out of 5,000 that's a lot I don't know if that's that's accurate though I can't fact check that uh 2022 5,000 employees 5,000 well 1,900 is a lot out of 5,000 that'd be like 38% uh potentially 5,000 at Xbox Xbox have 17 or Xbox have 5,000 and blizzard has 177,000 that's crazy it's just huge companies all right so let's see here oh Nvidia just fell what happened uh the pre-market happened the volatility in the pre-market is always oh Jim Kramer came on that's what happened it's going to open up for I I'm always suspicious of of ever recommending an airline since as David knows they've always been tragic in recommend they don't end it rarely ends well right there was you know their cost of capital okay Jim Kramer's bearish on the airlines Delta's going to go to the Moon came I was looking at the temp Alaska Air doing well well I mean jeez Jet Blue Alaska Air next is going to be with that Alle I I I I don't know if there's news or something but it's look at Delta right [Laughter] now fly Eastern fly Eastern yeah how about the light bulbs TWA bonds remember that yes I kind of do maybe Jim will cover it in his Mad Dash we'll get that and the opening B after a short break don't go anywhere yeah yeah okay let me go see if there's news on Delta because that's kind of funny uh oh yeah okay bad news okay so let's see here let's see what happened to Delta oh Delta Delta Delta Delta Delta all right uh Q3 capacity and investor growth in line okay that's good so it's not declining uh what else here this uh Delta Airline sees Q3 rev flat to up 1% Q3 rev flat to up 1% down from prior 2 to 4% guide okay Delta fiscal year EPS View VI excludes 45 Cent impact from crowd strike outage wow Crow check really screwed them huh 45 cents and it looks like aaska is going up too Alaska Airlines up 5% fuel costs were expected to come in lower capacity remains in line with prior expectations blah blah blah recovery from crowd strike blah blah blah okay fine what else stocks fluctuate after PPI data yeah boring yes okay how about [Music] Kroger raises sales outlook on resilient grocery spending huh Okie doie yeah it's funny I I wrote that down too ECB says rate cut path is not predetermined soon as she said that uh y I saw yields um yields went up as as soon as she said that so I think people think they're just going to kind of keep cutting and cutting and cutting US Navy SEAL unit that killed Bin Laden trains for China invasion of Taiwan what look at that SEAL Team Six that killed Osama Bin Laden has been training for Missions to help Taiwan if it's invaded by China according to people familiar with the preparations the team finally some 23 oh what's the 23 AMS let me look at that and then I want to come back to this uh wasn't the an trying to acquire it uh continues to evaluate remaining shares open to considering takeover proposals I mean that I don't is that news yeah I don't I think we already knew that no yeah I think so okay so anyway going back to this the elite special forces team which is Task with some of the the military's most sensitive and difficult missions has been planning a training for a Taiwan Conflict for more than a year secret training underlines The increased us focus on deterring China from attacking Taiwan while stepping up preps for such an event that's quite interesting oh yeah that Captain Rescue of the uh container ship by taken over by Somali pirates in 09 that was that was pretty cool whole movie on that covert highly classified missions they train for wide variety yes huh Taiwan military drills turn serious as China threat escalates it just be crazy taiwan's military drills turn serious as China threat escalates oh no huh this time we are exercising the ability of small units to operate in the event they are cut off for more senior command jeez what a mess what a mess all right so oracle's up 81 basis points that's cool uh Delta Roku they're all up about 5% Nvidia is giving back you know a couple little points who cares I mean it's uh done very well here in uh in the last 24 hours bitcoin's basically on my line and then Tesla uh is uh little down little poopy doopy Okie doie then so what else let's see Bell in 4 minutes you've got oh Gold's almost up a full percent now 89 on gold how's the yield curve the yield curve the inversion that's what we need we need the Halo guy okay uh so we're one basis point uninverted we're like basically right there at uh equal H 1.2 basis points now it's moving around okie dokie somebody says desla hasn't mailed me my plates just don't use them just kidding don't do that um so let's see here Rob in the hood oh let's see how Rob in the Hood's doing somebody else says gold to 3K by end of year I'm going to go what was I going to look at oh the robin the hoods Robin the hoods oh they're over 20 bucks again good for them and orals now orles now up 1% that seems to be a bullish trajectory okay okay where are the trades today let me there we go uh okay so 23 and me is moving up Roku delab bill.com builda bear Red Robin they're all moving up today and oracle's moving up to the downside you have space mobile Tesla Trump back arm Micron amd's giv back a little bit Nvidia Nvidia keeps is going down again a little bit yeah just as as we're getting into that pre-market there or into the open so all right what do we got here are bad and sometimes in the technology space in the private Equity space you need to let some companies bu other companies that's how investors get Capital returns that's how you promote Capital formation Republican VP nominee JD Vance earlier on squawk today who has his own debate coming up with walls in the coming weeks yeah look I think that these have always been hot buttons what's censored what's not uh I also think that I'm always surprised that people don't recognize don't don't start talking about Tik Tok and the influence that it has on on politics there's just a it's a free-for-all in digital Carl I mean you can get anything I don't buy the idea that there's censorship I don't buy the idea I think you have to do this I think you have to just take everything uh with the grain of salt that's on social interesting hearing him talk about antitrust policy as well a key consideration as well for uh any number of the supporters in the business community of Vice President Harris who I understand have been pressuring her as well that if in fact she were to win the election that she would get rid of me Khan yes yes that's what they would like aead of the handbag litigation conclusion you but there's frustration and it was interesting hearing van talk about the antitrust side at least saying some deals should be allowed to happen obviously they do but look I I look at a lot of social media and when you look at meta AI uh that's the one by meta you're always afraid that it's too influenced by social media and therefore not as accurate as you'd like it well Vance himself the other day said keep the cat mean flowing we'll see and Dynamics definitely heating up at the big board today it's Palmer Square Capital Management celebrating the launch of two new ETFs atda Chinese I feel like they changed that board a little bit where like those little boxes come up differently that's interesting oh it's about 5050 right now well let's see what ends up happening here I guess uh looks like uh if you jump into the uh the open here you've got uh what do you have you've got uh the C this is NVIDIA that we're watching right now nvidia's doing a little drop of dudes here and so it looks like you're wow you're kind of rapidly falling on Nvidia uh the q's as well I mean the first minute of the day is always freaking nuts anyway we all know that it's just like crazy so you know who knows we'll give it some time here but uh Q's not happy uh especially after yesterday's rally it might you know I was reading a little bit that unemployment claims might be what are driving uh moves today and you had a slight move up in unemployment claims but and unemployment claims do sort of lead the unemployment rate but they uh well they sort of move in line with it so it's just sort of like a weekly update of it but it's not a really good leading indicator of like a recession or something mostly because well you know once the real unemployment comes you tend to be in a recession already but um the markets still tend to trade off the unemployment claims and I find that very interesting but uh yeah so if we take a look at this you could see uh the cues are going a little oopsy dupsies uh Nvidia is going down uh let's see here 23 and me up 8% that's cool uh Roku Delta Delta's only up 2% now what else what else andf dropping it just can't get back to its 113 line it's kind of weird and uh oh look at that bounce on BTC it's perfect it's a perfect bounce it couldn't be more perfect I asked for Perfection all right that's cool so uh Apple oh Apple had a little leg down here as well okay Amazon uh what else here doc you sign okay H yeah look at that here's Nvidia trying to come back a little will it last will it last me friends I don't know looks like the cues are recovering now okay let me see if there's any news in the mean time so let's see okay we looked at 23 and me nothing else new over there ECB Trader should lock past the September CPI readings data dependency doesn't mean data point dependency we're not going to be fixated on a single number oh that sounds like a line Powell's going to take notes from data dependency does not mean data point dependency we should add that to our Bingo board next time uh that would be funny all right I'm going to write that down uh fed uh data dependency does not mean data point dependency okay uh ECB quote uh and then I want to write uh we'll we'll pow adopt this next week yes then give us the big 50 dud uh will pow wowl adopt this next week then we'll know exactly where it came from that's funny uh okay okay uh hey look at Tesla nice little pop there e trying to get back to 230 230 all right uh major averages tracking for fourth positive week out of five uh yeah I think that brings us to this is comparing back to August 6 it's been a good run since August 6 August 6 was a nice little little shock let's listen to the Jimbo season well I mean this is about about credit read across GM uh and I've got to tell you at GM in Ford this piece made me feel very uncertain about the orders I mean he says basically margins are not sustainable delinquencies are up inventories are up uh and that the remember when you couldn't get a car at least not the with the specs you wanted and what's happened is is that again I I I'm a broken record on this this is what happens before rate cut you can't go in a rate cut with things great that's one of the things people don't seem to understand see when things are great you don't cut rates when things aren't great like with Autos you cut rates why do people continue to think that well I want everything to be great and why doesn't why doesn't it do 50 basis points well you can't have your cake you can't let them eat gateau how about yogurt maybe they eat yogurt David you don't talk nearly enough about the food m&a it's happening left and right where are you where are you all right Tesla's going for 230 here it goes can it hit 230 here it goes big line right there at 230 it's actually a little Gray Line it's it has it's bounced there a few times it's not the strongest but it does seem to be a spot you get uh uh you get some pretty uh solid activity at right there at that 230 level so I don't know though uh oh and what do we get tomorrow let me see here tomorrow we get uh I think we just get you of M so a little boring uh let's see here we get import export prices University of Michigan so not really a lot in the way of uh new data tomorrow uh let's see gam stop down about 145 I look at Tesla perfectly play the 230 line Robin hoods up a couple Delta's kind of losing some of its enthusiasm BTC holding on to the line hold the line still almost there 230 and then we've got let's see here Apple H that's an interesting little decline there on Apple I mean it's post iPhone event you know I think you can start pre-ordering uh it tomorrow uh I think that's when the pre-orders begin it's like 5: in the morning uh on Friday uh okay so you should make sure to sleep in tomorrow so you're not convinced to buy one oh yeah Amazon's doing a little bit of a move up nice nice oh there there's Tesla come on somebody here says am I the only one who thinks these inflation news we getting are insanely bad we didn't need any pressure from that side we need as many Cuts as possible yeah actually I I agree with you it is uh it is unfortunate because uh even though you have like this revision on PPI and this like smidgen hotter CPI if it leads the FED to go slower yeah it just pushes you deeper into a likely recession so uh not ideal you know not good not good at all well but this is good for Tesla though because uh you're getting a little break over here so uh yeah very interesting any house hack out yeah we got a big house hack video coming it's just taking a while to put it together but uh hopefully this weekend so it'll be fun good good detail appraisals uh next plans it's is really more of the same but um in terms of like what we're actually doing at the company but um yeah it'll be kind of fun so can Tesla hold the line hold the [Applause] line uh it's not working the sound effects are not working okay we try the mouse push it this way this way no it is not working let's try sad music always is just the opposite all right sad music brings the green Candlestick yeah look at that happy music just pushes it up down more it's it's always the opposite so uh all right then green sell sell sell ah see it's working the bad music is making it go [Music] up Big L poopy doopy yeah see look at that it's magic it's whatever whatever you think would be logical the opposite happens on the candlesticks uh somebody says assts is tanking oh yeah oh yeah well Nvidia is going up oh yeah well I mean it did meme In fairness right like this is like a total meme move and now it's bleeding somebody's like story my life yeah yeah J you how dumb could you be you act happy when it goes up but you're really mad cuz your shorts are getting spoked I have no shorts you dummy with the exception of a tiny little bit of short Bitcoin uh like like people think because I'm bearish I have puts I told you I don't have puts I I like literally I'm Mak I I got a play that that is a leveraged call option basically uh on something that I think does well in a soft landing and does really well in a recession you don't have to be short the market uh I I I think people think that when you're a bear you're like a villain but the reality is this JW guy or whatever you're just a troll just a dumb troll a you don't know what you're talking about and B you're dumb uh so look at that okay that's fair but then why are you a three three bear bro every day I tell you why I'm a bear where have you been I literally have a list of recession indicators going that I'm like I don't feel good about this what why are you a bear have you not watched any videos oh man all right whatever so uh okay what do we got here so Amazon uh 64 red red robins coming by oh Nvidia nvidia's to the Moon uh end phase you can't hold it Tesla oh look at that see it was the bare music let's do it again let's do it again it's the bad music let's do some other ones the House of Pain Big L come on all right we gave it the bad music so it should have another big fat green candle uh stupid uh oh no okay um what else so uh let's see here Gold's up about 1% now .99 oil's actually up a little bit but Brent's only at 71 see how are commodities doing uh Bitcoin 577 if I go to the bcom index uh let's see here uh beom uh oh becom quote rocket mortgage is up 2.2% 2.8% I'm sorry beom Bloomberg commodities index up about 1% today year to date it's been on a roller coaster here look at look at the roller coaster this is the year-to DAT roller coaster it's been on and uh is Oracle up more they're talking about Oracle right now listen to the purchase of Paramount the merger with Sky Dan as well which he controls along with his son and KKR and Redbird but um 6 million the guy literally made twice that in a day what's he what does he make on the interest each day yeah exactly less than what the dividend payments are to the Walmart uh heirs that's on a monthly basis can I offer him an open invitation to come here and sit in Mike se's seat okay Larry ellises Zim shipping's up three know you he doesn't care about you he never thinks about you and I just want you to know that oo Nvidia is almost up 1% now look at that it it tells you it's just like the early volatility of the first like 5 minutes is just like cooky dookie it's almost like if you really want to find the trend you got to wait a little bit and um and then you'll find it so see if it holds today very very interested to see how the how the day wraps up uh you know are you going to get uh uh are you going to be able to hold this because so far on the cues you've got this kind of nasty barcode going on like I feel like I'm I'm back working at Hollister and I need to take my little my little I got fired from there okay it's not that bougie anyway um I want to take my little uh scanner gun and go uh uh I think I have a old picture of me with one of those lasers uh I I doubt I can find it but anyway uh so what else this is boring barcodes that's all that's all we're getting here boring we need more more entertainment I want entertainment oh here's some entertainment space mobile okay so I just want to be clear I was a big fan uh of uh like what they're doing but uh I I always get nervous when stocks Skyrocket the way they did here uh and kind of makes me a little you know thinking they're probably going to retrace back to some of the the lows uh that they had you know more like 15 bucks or something like that you know it's not to try to be a bear it's just you know when stuff meme in momentums and and then it's you know smaller and less known at some point it does seem to uh fade away so that might be What's Happening Here it could also be because you had SpaceX uh and they're doing their um what's it called what are they doing they're doing their uh Space Walk So some people are thinking that uh uh the um competition is too real a lot of competition in that space World never really lik SpaceX though seems like Elon but you just got to catch it we didn't even mention Lily putting another two billion into Ireland in Ireland and two different plants and you think the the amount of money they're spending in the last like year is equal the whole biking Therapeutics which is why I prefer biking the Cruise Line to Breaking the Therapeutics as stocks even as I wish breaking Therapeutics well travel names are doing well today a lot of the Airlines and cruise lines helping out uh although the Dow's down a bit here down 123 watch bonds today we mentioned the ECB cutting 25 basis points as expected that's the second time in a few months and they keep their 2024 inflation forecast intact 10year 366 we'll take a short break yeah see usually you get these consolidations you get like a VI move to One Direction The Q's just had a little bit of a violent drop uh I I don't know if that'll last I don't see anything that's like Mega bearish in news today the only reason I feel like things might sell down today is If you um if you had profit taking right people are like all right you know that was a good bounce we had yesterday you know the Bounce has been made today uh and then take profits I I I don't know I mean yeah see you're getting a little bit of a pull down there on Nvidia uh what else n phase oh Tesla couldn't keep it up oh no Bitcoins lose no no bad news the House of Pain reamed your boy Kevin just lost lots of money Big L poopy doopy fetch me [Laughter] um okay so yeah interesting all of a sudden getting some entertainment some uh oh wow yeah look at that Nvidia was just up like a percent uh and uh ah yeah I huh okay let me see if anything came through I don't think so 649 last 2 minutes no I don't think so Commodities are still up all indices just went red what the hell the Dow's down 34 the S&P 500's down 25 and the nasdaq's down 20 bips is is see it's down a little more actually right now so what is Apple doing then oh interesting yields wow the 10 year was up as much as three basis points and now it's flat wait what's the two then 2ear uh we're about 1.8 positive right now on the inversion yeah I need the the SpongeBob rainbow to pop up when I say that uh okay H whatever I mean it could just be your typical normal daily volatility I don't know man dude every all of them are tanking all of a sudden I mean I get it's it's better off than where it was at the open let's see what the doomers got anything to say okay German front- on bonds sell off as October rate Cuts bet wither right cut Bets with her okay stocks swing like yesterday's were rarely seen this decade huh price action in stocks yesterday was noteworthy with the S&P recovering from a 1.6% loss to closing up 1.1% this type of Swing has rarely been seen in the last 10 years with most occasions associated with big stock draw [Laughter] Downs uh okay uh so that has only occurred seven times in the past uh uh uh decade all years were associated with big sell-offs although the 7-Day forward gains were mostly positive so in the short run the track record isn't bad but it seems like in the medium term it's not that great that's interesting yeah all right I don't know it's just it's called the market bro just vola okay I wonder if Nick T had anything to say you Nick T usually chimes in by now actually he's generally up early Nick T all right yes one hour ago one hour later hey you got a recovery on Tesla all right filings for unemployment insurance benefits are holding up at the year ago levels through August continuing claims what is this share weeks into the year oh this is confusing oh so we're here okay so pretty much all consistent oh thank you Nick D I'll give you a heart yeah you're already recovering a little bit now on dla core inflation uh lowest since 2021 but up 2.8% from July that was oh that was yesterday that's it that's all he gave us no commentary on the BP I nothing fine then all in small gaps hey video in positive again this is uh your iwm here Russell 2000 uh this is uh the trory you've been on between those lines kind of floating right on the 100 SMA okay let's see what we have here cover oh a coupon expiring today at 600 p.m. oh you already knew that meetkevin.com this time around a couple of years ago when we saw the junior Banker Revolt let's call it it was about pay it was at a time of a deal boom this time around deal volumes are coming back but the nature of these complaints are somewhat different wow Delta went from positive 5 toga -1 just lost everything lost the lead changes that actually make a difference after we hear these complaints because complaints are not new they come up time and time again as you mentioned pay was one moment in time but this whole issue uh and the tensions around the type of working conditions the hours that Bankers are working the lack of sleep their health that is deteriorating because of that this is something that is not new on Wall Street veterans will say this is part of the game and that you have to put in the work in order to earn your space in the industry and so now what we've really seen is push back from the junior Bankers um and and some really very important moments in time at Bank of America one of their Bankers passing away after working on a very large m&a deal and that really sparked an outcry uh regardless of of the of really the the rationale and the reason behind hising it just brought up a whole new conversation renewed the conversation about working conditions so now what you're seeing is the banks actually putting into place some changes um so for JP Morgan capping the hours at 80 and for Bank of America they're improving their system so instead of reporting hourly workloads every week the bankers will now be putting in their hours each day so that it's accurately tracking or more accurately tracking the type of work that they're doing all right Katherine doy really important reporting appreciate your time of course on that story that JP Morgan and others looking at ways to cap Junior Banker hours meanwhile you take a look at markets right now again to the downside huh that's a yeah we saw I think the Wall Street Journal hit that yeah okay okay uh everything seems somewhat happy overall you know you got Dell up 2 and a half you got Apple that stopped falling which is fine after its event you know you had Nvidia that yeah you know was up like a percent but it's kind of just hanging out right now you got uh the cues can't really figure out what they want to do trying to see what they want to do when they grow up Oracle two and a half percental uh it's pretty good you know they were up like 80 bips in the pre-market so there comes that red candle again it feels a little bearish today eh like you know you don't have that enthusiasm that you had yesterday yesterday was uh much more uh snazzy snazzy snazzy okay let's see yields are flat yield curve is one and A2 basis points positive copper is up one Gold's up 135 we saw that go from like 6 to 8 to 99 to 1.3 interesting Bitcoins right there at the 57580 gab Bond's again flat uh and then all indices are red at the moment but barely I mean it's not like there's anything wild going on uh let see premature Fed rate Cuts will heighten US inflation risks don't say such things someone from London writes that little urgency for easier policy yeah well that's not ideal because once you start the layoffs it doesn't end okay okay what else uh let's see here ooh oh I want to see uh I I kind of say I kind of think you get like a stabilization in you know the Trump betting odds after the debate but I'm not sure if that's true so I'm going to look so let's go to predict it oh no predicted still has comma Harris at 56 Trump at 48 and H paully Market has kamla at 50 Trump 49 interesting yeah that debate really shifted the betting markets uh which um you know we substantially more uh or at least I mean Trump was in the lead by a lot five and a half on poly market and and only down one on predicted it's all flip-flop Now flip flopping data oops [Music] an alternative look at the Trump Paris debate in five charts okay number of words spoken uh interesting total number of words spoken number of distinct words spoken that's very interesting so KL Harris had what is that maybe 6,000 words to Trump's 8,000 uh 500 which means she spoke she spoke 30% less but had maybe what 10% more distinct words that's interesting I don't interesting all right he spoke a total of 42 minutes versus Harris's 37 190 words per minute versus her 160 interesting he also took more turns jumping in so often that he spoke 54 times to her 29 wow because he so frequently repeats himself this is related to Trump words by characteristic that's actually funny uh they she it are country going uh good the lower bar here but because get this is actually funny word's most characteristic of Harris oh okay this is by characteristic okay these are interesting getting mad median pitch Dev deviation of pitch in turn of speaking okay oh okay so you're looking at like which one becomes more volatile when I don't know how useful that I mean you see some volatility there moderator asks about j6 I don't know how useful this is this is some weird stuff like who puts this stuff together let's count all the words uh let's see here somebody in the comment says honestly I'm Blown Away with how bad he was he was literally the worst in his worst light that night I can't believe he just walked in without preparation and thought he would own the debate it Trump could have absolutely used some more prep there absolutely uh Nvidia is doing really well right now look at that up one and a half% and uh the q's are almost actually positive again good for the cues that's an economist report considering his life is literally on the line he should have prepped more oh oh maybe because of the uh you know the the the hearings and the sentencing and stuff like that yeah that's interesting overconfident yeah maybe yeah hey look good bounce here though on the q's good news for uh those of you that like the q's or even apple look at that nice movement up on Apple uh although I mean it's just coming up from the hole right I mean it's just down half a percent but it's rotating up uh in Phase can't catch a bid and uh Bitcoin back above here uh and then as you can see uh Tesla's just really really Stu at um the 230 that's usually when you should make your dentist appointments always make those appointments for 230 all right and they've never heard that joke before but look who's on the ECB out this morning they cut rates 25 basis points as expected as far as a signal about what comes next president lagard gave none data dependent we are not committing we are not pre-commit I mean she answered it in five different ways from multiple questions she did though talk about some of the downside risk to the economy in Europe and to the global economy as well listen people are like why 230 Kevin just just listen to it tooth herty for Euro area exports owing for instance to a weaker World economy or an escalation in trade tensions between major economies would weigh on Euro area growth Russia's unjustified war against Ukraine and the tragic conflict in the Middle East are major sources of geopolitical risk this may result in firms and households becoming less confident about the future and global trade being disrupted a lot of talk about trade Carl which I thought was is is interesting because we don't get that as much from fed share Powell but it's clearly a front Center conversation in the election and she's paying attention clearly to the to the prospect of increased tariffs and trade tensions and the spillover effect on Europe I mean just thinking about the drogy report earlier in the week and just the sort of indictment of not just Innovation but overreliance of trade with China versus say for example the United States they've got structural issues that they're having to somebody here's like wow you have a lot of M liberal moderators not going to subscribe here well you you too could be a moderator if you join the courses on building your wealth go to meet kevin.com to learn more and take advantage of the expiring coupon code uh today at 6 p.m it's a flash sale you too can see what Kevin's up to Europe's problem so that's going to continue to be a conversation they got to do something I mean when you look at the Divergence in GD being a dentist 2:30 is not the best time for an appointment tell us why tell tell us more yeah I they always seem to schedule me for like 9 or 10 a nice nugget in the last 50 years the US has created six companies now worth a trillion dollars each in in that period of time Europe has created not even a company worth a 100 billion uh the the just creation of capital in EUR Europe versus US is incredible think about all the companies we talk about every single day the mag 7 they they really don't have any of I mean Spotify I don't know I'm thinking of Europe they got some big important companies Airbus pretty big important company you know but they don't have any big important AI companies n no technology technology companies Brian Moran actually talked about it in our interview this week because he was saying on the he referenced it in terms of the bosel 3 regulation saying we're trying to match you know the European framework here a bosle but dr's report just came out and showed how uncompetitive they are you know like may maybe they should try to be more like the US in terms of capital markets and Innovation a lot of things you I covered the wireless industry for years including from its nent years and the Europeans were ahead of us in in all ways in terms of that regulation just basically drove drove the ability to invest out of the business and look where they are now right no it's a problem it's problem the problem is are they going to have enough political will from their members especially like a Germany to spend and to do what's necessary that remains to be seen but we diverge because there's some fresh commentary on the economy in the US that we're paying attention to do to today and diverge or digress I know you guys have been talking about that the engagement recovery is happening Jenna dros the CEO says the sequential acceleration in same store sales makes Q2 both the fifth consecutive quarter of same store sales Improvement and the largest Improvement we've delivered in more than two years she said Q3 Signet does anybody even know what the hell that is fashion that we also saw sequential Improvement in Bridal and continued strength in Services guys it's so important for them to see engagements go up people getting engaged they own ziles they own Kay they own Jared and I love some of the okay they own all of those okay yeah yeah yeah K Jared you've seen those rings are up significantly in recent months and they have this whole algorithm where they check for couples getting engaged 26 of our proprietary engagement Milestones have been met where they are highly likely to get engaged it's now 90 basis points higher than last year and the highest number of couples we've seen yet romance is in the air good thing I guess for the economy if you're in the engagement business yeah and and better housing Mobility will help out too yes housing formation would be helpful yeah yeah and then on a firm that's the Sarah's got two cups of coffee you know you're worried about the consumer how's the buy now pay later space and basically Max Leon also sounded a pretty positive note the CEO but then he also qualified it by saying our customers are in better shape maybe than the average consumer as for the latest inflation print today and where the market goes from here let's uh bring in 72 Asset Management Chief Economist Dean Mackey and CF research Chief investment strategist Sam stoal morning guys good to see you both morning Carl Sam let me talk with you first about I I guess you're drawing some is the guy in the middle pooping looking at periods after the first cut right it's not always roses oh that's right well Carl it's the big difference between wanting and having that uh in the period between the last rate hike and the First Rate cut the S&P is gained GED an average of 18% going back to 1990 yet in the 30 days after the first cut we end up seeing the market tread water gaining less than one half of 1% most of the action is below the surface however uh in the sector areas with a lot of the leaders being in the defensive areas but I have to include technology in there because investors don't want to be giving up on the growth right that said you are looking for maybe a postelection rally am I right absolutely so typically the uh the seasonality gets shifted during the election year instead of August and September being weak it's September and October and you look at a majority of styles sizes sectors and sub Industries in negative territory in September and October but then the reverse is true in November and December once the uncertainty of the election has been lifted you find that all sizes Styles sectors and 97 % of the sub Industries are in positive territory uh led by more of the growthy areas uh rabbit hood is running uh by the way it's uh it's running uh somewhere but uh it appears to be doing well 24 yes yes yes okay sideways Market though look at that what weird uh I mean you got the pop on Nvidia which is nice but Q's sideways basically flat uh in phas oh trying to pop up a little Tesla just can't hold the 230 and whoa look at palent here 3517 it's killing it that's really good uh look at let's see small cap seven bips ethereum 23 docu sign docu signs up too oh okay all right well so um I hear the little babies chirping out there so I'm going to go say hi and then we'll go do a course member live stream uh and yeah remember flash sale ends today you can see the multi-million dollar bet and the long-term thesis on it uh it's it's an over uh it's like almost a one and a half year bet so go learn about that uh oh um today's actually a good day to learn about it uh go learn about it over at uh meetkevin.com and uh let's push the button we'll see you in the next one even though I'm a licensed financial adviser real estate broker and becoming a stock broker this video is neither personalized Financial advice nor real estate advice for you it is not tax legal or otherwise personalized advice tailored to you this video provides generalized perspective information and commentary any thirdparty content I show should not be deemed endorsed by me this video is not and shall never be deemed reasonably sufficient information for the purpose of evaluating a security or investment decision any links or promoted products are either paid affiliations or products or Services which we may benefit from I personally operate and actively manage ETF and hold long positions in various Securities potentially including those mentioned in this video however I have no relationship to any issuers over than house hack nor am I presently acting as a market maker there you have it thanks so much for being here see you in the next one goodbye and good luck