[Music] check the mic and make sure it sound right boy sound right boy it sound right [Music] [Applause] [Music] boys down [Music] down sound right [Music] boy down down boy s sound white boy sound b b it sound right boy [Music] [Applause] [Music] B down down [Music] down it sound right [Music] boy alrighty all righty welcome welcome to the hard sausage podcast it is late I pushed this thing till tomorrow literally as soon as I got done doing that they got to their final question I did I thought the debate was only going to be from 9 to 10 so I plan to come on 10:15 um so my initial thought this is initial thought is it this debate I don't think either one of them did great I thought she did a better job because and here's why let me get my banner ready let me go ahead and uh create the [Music] banner uh for about 75% of this debate Harris controlled it uh the last part of that debate when they had their their break in there and um that's when Trump Got Back back on message I thought he did much better after the first break but Harris controlled about 75% of this debate she was making it about him Donald Trump was ineffective ACC countering what she hadn't done I thought let me in both these candidates have weaknesses I thought Trump really nailed Her On the Border no doubt about that I thought she did a I thought her answer was okay now is it going to be good enough for the electorate I I thought her answer was okay which is hit because two things can be right at the same time with the board but um but we'll talk more about that as the week goes on uh you know so the debate was tonight and I certainly hope you all watched it and enjoyed it I thought and they're talking to some Bucks County voters right now and again I both these candidates have issues but we're gonna go ahead and do our map about 63 days for the election so let's go ahead and get our map up we can just kind of see where things are let me um let me go backwards uh let's see here let me let's share this is 538.com you can see Harris is ahead in the make sure it's being shared yep Harris is ahead in the popular vote that's all this is is popular vote and uh certainly hope you all understand this isn't popular vote is an electoral vote it's exactly right it's it's um it is um it's it's exactly what it says popular vote what did you miss in the debate uh they had a debate it was fiery um the debate is broken into at 100% at 100% um she controlled about 70 to 75% of this debate Trump I got some got some good stuff off but she was able to mitigate that and when she had openings Trump didn't Trump didn't jump on them every time Donald Trump said something that wasn't true she just seized on it she looked she to me she looked like a prosecutor she prosecuted Donald Trump all the way from the SE January 6 stuff to um you know just all kind of stuff I mean it was a good debate and I thought he landed some good punches but she was really Landing some Zinger she trolled him um you know she she just I mean you have to watch it I mean it's not it's not like Trump did bad I want to make that clear Trump didn't do bad but the stuff that he really needed to nail her on he really didn't do a good job of so but yeah again not a bad debate by Trump uh she did a little bit better her job was to do no harm and look presidential she did that so we have to wait and see how that turn this doesn't mean she's going to win the election see Trump sh still Trump is still leading in the Electoral part but we'll get to that but I wanted to show you all the uh what the vote look like as far as the popular vote I want to keep saying that the popular vote she's ahead by 2.7 give or take this comes from 538.com they have their own methodology we're collecting so now let's go to some of our state polls uh let's see here so I think we have to back out of this okay so let's go to we're going to start the southern smile we're going to start in N well we'll start Nevada and how we do our map is very simple it is whoever's ahead doesn't matter how by how much that's who we give the color to so as of today hair this is a virtual tie but since Harris has a slight I mean it's ever so slight lead we will make this state uh I guess it'll be tilt blue and I think it'll be tilt with this one so that's the way that to go okay so we will give that to Harris um as you can see here now we'll go to Arizona because that's another one of these states here and you can see Trump's ahead point 6 so again we'll give that we'll give that to Trump that's the way this will work even though this is a statistical Dead Heat this is a dead heat Okay so don't want people to get their pantings in a while we're just talking about the southern smile now we'll go to Georgia see hi Georgia you can see here Trump's ahead in Georgia by 0 five but again another statistical Dead Heat and and there's two things going on here one Trump has been under pole and so could that be what's going on right now that has happened in the two previous elections number two she's not had to come out and Define a whole bunch of stuff in order to make the race as close as it is so again I think that's a symol of both of them not being great candidates so I don't think either group loves the person that they're kind of in bed with sort of speak but we'll give this one to Trump because he's up so now let's go to North Carolina let's see here you can see here where we at okay Harris is up by 3 t a one point again a statistical tie but since Harris is leading when we color our map we're going to color it blue so we'll start from there and now we'll go to Michigan and we can see right here now Harris has the lead in Michigan by two points so again statistical tie Harris however is in the lead so when we color our map we will color Michigan blue now let's go to Pennsylvania all righty then to the the reddest of the blue states that is Pennsylvania so if I can find it there we go as you can see right here hars is ahead again statistical tie s statistical tie so again I don't want to hear it I don't want to you know so when we color our map that's what we're going to do it's going to be a statistical tie and but we C we're GNA color blue because Harris is head that's why 538.com all right so the last day is Wisconsin so we're gonna look at the and then we'll color in our map and then we it's go it's bedtime for the old man okay westconsin could be I still think Wisconsin's off I think this is very close because Trump was under has been under Po in Wisconsin so but because Harris is ahe when we color our matap when we color the matap which is not a reflection of what could really happen it's just a staple we're just going to take a picture of it so you all can see where this election is and then you all will be able to say oh okay well that makes sense now okay so I had to pull up another thing but as you can see Harris is ahead in Wisconsin so that's what we're going to do so let's go ahead and bring up I have to bring up the other map here let me go grab grab my map 270 for the win now we're going to color in based on 538.com so let me share the screen let's share the care uh was Trump versus Camala two again the they did a good job asking questions that's their job okay they did a good job of this Splat out asking questions they both knew the rules they both overt talked on their mic so and they and both those moderators tried to get them back kind of in so again that's this whole thing now like I said before now that Trump is seems to be having some issues all of a sudden it's a it's everything's wrong how come where was this at when Trump did very well in the first debate against Biden so first we're going to color in the states that's what we're going to do right now and um so we're going to start with the blue States these are the safe blue States for KLA Harris these states are are safe so uh and this is the way we color these in so uh Illinois Minnesota uh then Maine Connecticut Rhode Island Jersey DC Delaware DC and New Hampshire and the that's safe for KLA Harris all right now let's color in what's safe for Trump with safe for Trump is Utah I got a one more safe one for Hawaii okay so these are all safe Trump states that we're coloring in okay uh we'll make this likely and then we'll go back up here okay now let's go one more hair State there okay then we'll get back to Trump here here here here here there there um sa four Democrats oh okay and now we'll go ahead and keep coloring this in I think it's main District 2 and Nebraska District uh one I think that's the way it looks again they have a split electri now we can color in our map but this is where your race is gonna start as of today as of today so Nevada I believe was a with Trump was ahead in Nevada okay barely he was bar but we're going to give it to him okay uh Trump was ahead in Georgia Harris was ahead in North Carolina I'm sorry let's let's mate gotta put Ohio up there I'm sorry about that um Harris was leading in Pennsylvania all be by Point there's your election right there she's at 270 right there if she wins that again these are these states are they're tied but since the but since for the the sake of the map we're just coloring in where she was ahead even though she was in a statistical Dead Heat Michigan gets colored in because she was ahead so do Wisconsin and I think Arizona I cannot remember where Arizona was hold on um let me we let go because I cannot I can't remember who was ahead in Arizona so and it's again it's a it's a statistical tie and let's see here let's go Arizona oh no it's Arkansas Arizona okay so as you can see here Trump's up buy points so let's give that to Trump all right so that we're being accurate so that you don't have these numb nuts crying and there we go that's your election right now based on 538.com remember Nevada Arizona Carolina Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin are all statistical ties and the three groups that are gonna that are going to determine the election in no particular order married white women single white men married black men and and single black men that's it that's in no particular order so if three of those groups break towards one of these candidates that candidate will more than than likely win the election that's the way this is all pretty much been read out so but I wanted you all to see the map you could take your pictures of it that way you can see if it's changing any it did change a little bit remember haris was aheading Nevada last week she was aheading Arizona so as I said before Trump has absorbed her in those States Georgia again statistical tie statistical tie no doubt about okay but since they Trump was leading in those States we gave that to Trump Harris I mean I did see multiple polls ahead her ahead in North Carolina it's reflected in 538 it's a it's a statistical tie but this map as of right now has her at 295 has Trump at 243 all right now where was the movement at in Arizona and Nevada your movement was with Kennedy Robert Kennedy's um his his endorsement of Donald Trump that's why those numbers are moved so will the debate that was tonight for the people who are undecided will it move these these numbers that's we won't find out for about another two weeks so right that poll that comes out on the 20 fourth that'll be the poll that starts the the the the uh electri will start to harden and you'll start to see it kind of move either way now that's just the way it normally works we're going to find out but that's all I had for you folks I just want you all to see my map and um you all can uh take that for what it's worth just want to come back see if there's any questions or comments uh let's see here not surprising ABC is ran by Dana Walden who's close friend with Camala again like I said before they they asked fair questions I watched it they both got opportunities to answer they both answered and um as I said before Harris controlled about 75% of that debate she made it about him she kept him off of what she was or wasn't going to do that's his job as the candidate against her to make it about her and what she has done hasn't done I thought he did good in some moments especially the second half of the debate I thought he did much better but that first half that debate and for a little bit past that she controlled it she was controlling it she was controlling him he did get on get on track though like I said the last 25% Trump got on track shout out to him so again and from what people are saying out of these spin rooms the Republicans are not super happy with Trump's performance so again they're not they're not like oh it was terrible but it wasn't what they wanted it to be so again you got 63 days before the election and uh let's see I don't think there's any more questions comments things are getting juicy yeah it will the next two weeks I mean you'll start seeing what's going to probably happen and then it'll just go in from there the the L the landing gear come down at the end of September you're in you're in October you know at that point you're G to start seeing some really hard num so but all right then we're gonna get on off here I do appreciate you and uh so that was I want to do a short one we can talk about it some more tomorrow if you want to but wanted to show you my map debate is over thought Harris got the better of him tonight you know out of the 100% she control 75% that's about it all right guys that's it I'mma bounce like a check deuces