[Music] welcome to this week's edition of the green on Delaware Public Media I'm your host Tom burn this week's Delaware primary brought an end to one of the most watched and most contentious races the state has seen this year's Democratic primary for governor it also produced some eye openening results at both the top of the ticket where a largely unknown newcomer muscled his way into the US House race and down ballot where Delaware's house speaker is suddenly out of a job to dive into these storylines we sat down with University of Delaware Communications Professor Paul Brewer Delaware politics director at ud's Center for political communication to get his analysis of the state of play post primary let's Jump Right In with the governor's race on the Democratic side the big question going in this highly contentious race was how much the long-running questions about lieutenant governor Bethany Hong's campaign finan issues would influence the race as opposed to say the questions about out Side pack support for Matt Meyer H long did ultimately lose by a fairly substantial margin to Matt Meyer uh is it fair to say Hall Long's issues were the primary or among the primary reasons she lost and Meer won well I'll be a little careful here because we only had a little polling in this race but how long entered the race seemed like in a fairly good position so she was a two-time incumbent long-term member of the legislature she had had the endorsement of the outgoing Governor John Carney so presumably name recognition uh we in our polling she we found she she had at least moderate to to substantial name recognition so clearly something went arai and the most logical suspect would be all of the attention focused on allegations of campaign finance and proprieties is it also fair to say it it was the obos like d drip drip nature of it between essentially October and Roy almost right up to the election itself yes I think one story might have been easier to put behind her but there was a string of stories that generated negative publicity for her and perhaps most importantly became the F of a fairly well-funded negative campaign against her and not just on that but also some of the negative ads that were aimed at her opponent her Prim you know her main opponent Matt Meer there was a third candidate Colin Mara but it it seemed like was largely between those two Front Runners and you mentioned this negative campaigning because you know when our reporters were in the field on Tuesday they heard from many voters they were turned off by the negative campaigning in that race and some democratic party officials suggested to us that it might have even drove turnout down turnout wound up at 22% down from 32% in the primary in 2020 the last presidential election that had you know kind of the same type of races Governor US House US Senate on the ballot do you think that the tone of the campaign could have affected turnout yeah so there's there's long-standing debate in political science whether negative information depresses turnout or whether it persuades people I think it's at least plausible in this case now it's challenging to get turnout in primaries so there's a bigger picture there but this was a pretty negative race and I talked about the negative campaigning against al long but you brought up certainly there was a lot of negative campaigning directed at Matt Meyer as well well and I also found it interesting that a lot of this campaigning seems to have been driven by not the campaigns of the candidates themselves but by packs this this negative vibe that surrounded the governor's campaign is that something that Democrats you think are going to need to address in the next few weeks as they start to Pivot toward the general election and and maybe even beyond that do they do they need to kind of men some fences here well it it was a seemed like a pretty bitter primary battle and on the one hand Democrats have been in the driver's seat in Statewide elections for a while so you could look at that and say well it doesn't really matter but it might behoove them to men fences and you know get on the same page because I think one factor in the Democratic party's dominance at Statewide level was simply being ideological Delaware is Blue State relatively low relatively Progressive state so any Republican candidate is going to have an appe pill task trying to win a Statewide election it's been a while what was the last one Ken simpler yes correct he and he was something of an outlier if you look back to like even like 2000 um so over two decades that's kind of like you know he and uh you know uh Tom Wagner who was a longtime Republican auditor kind of kept getting reelected but once he was not on the ballot that office went to the Democrats but I you do bring up an interesting point I mean can the GOP candidate in the governor's race Mike raon sees on a fractious Democratic primary to perhap give himself a better chance perhaps he's already seemed to try to position himself as a kind of more thoughtful moderate type Republican his first press release after the primary was about his support for Reproductive Rights and lgbtq plus protections uh when President Biden uh stepped away from the presidential race he actually put out a release thanking the president for his service and saying how much he admired the president is that a strategy yeah and that that was the other side I was gonna the other angle I was going to take on this is that I think another factor in the Republican party's lack of Statewide success in recent Cycles has been that the candidates that they've put up have been relatively extreme and not well positioned to win Statewide races I'm thinking here like candidates like Lauren witzky or Scott Walker you know these are these are not candidates that have a serious chance of winning Mike Ron on the other hand he was a state rep for for quite a while before this and has historically presented himself as to think a more moderate Centrist Republican uh so I think he's at least better positioned to do better than a lot of the candidates at the Statewide level that the Republican party has nominated on the other hand I think it's still a challenging task I think looking back hullen bonini ran against Carney I think he also presented himself as a you a non-fire breathing Republican he was actually remarkably congenial with in the debate that we had here at and it it didn't work for him in the end but you know Cycles differ and perhaps what's hoping for is a combination of how he presents himself and perhaps some some fissures on the Democratic side maybe you know combining into a perfect storm for him something definitely to keep an eye on you mentioned the Republican party so let's talk a little bit about their side of things their endorsed candidates did largely well with one notable exception the party endorsed us house candidate donielle Hall Was Defeated convincingly by a relatively unknown newcomer a former State Police Trooper John whan you mentioned Scott Walker this is kind of reminiscent of Walker's win over then party endorsed Lee Murphy in 2018 is there a way to explain this yeah now I don't know too much about the specifics of that race I will be honest but kind of broader impression of where the Delaware GOP is right now I think potentially a reflection of the national GOP which is that the Republican party establishment over the last 10 15 years has really lost a lot of control over the direction of the party I think this this really starts both in Delaware nationally in 2010 with the Tea Party where you have Christino odonald with a surprise win over Mike castle and you mentioned the the the Murphy Walker I think it's just not as easy and safe for kind of establish Republican candidates to to Coast on on that so down ballot the the biggest surprise was Delaware house Speaker Valery lur who had just ascended the speaker a year ago losing to camela Smith in the house 15th District Democratic primary we have seen this recently uh a couple of State Senate President protemps uh have lost in recent years Tony Duca Patty bevens David McBride in 2012 2016 and 2020 is this becoming a bit of a cautionary tale for leadership Democratic Leadership in the state that the voters are watching and you can't necessarily feel like you're immune from challenges yeah this does seem to be getting to be a pattern and it is striking because historically big picture incumbents losing in primaries is pretty unusual and people in leadership losing in primaries is even more unusual so to see a string of these makes you wonder what what is going on here and I think one factor that could be at play here is that as the Democratic party has really become the dominant party in Delaware at the Statewide level you see a lot of the tensions and competition over the direction of policy and politics in the state play out at these primary levels and I think you see a growing K between the more Progressive elements of the party and then the more Centrist establishment elements of the party I think this is a case where uh Smith identified as Progressive she's that's where I was going to go is you know she is a Working Families party endorsed candidate that is the progressive branch of the democratic party and and this is certainly another feather in the cap she joins the likes of Eric Morrison Sophie Phillips Medina Wilson Anon Cindy romor and others who have been part of that kind of subset of the democratic party who have earned their way into the legislature um now In fairness not all of their endorsed candidates are successful including the gubinatorial candidate they back Colin omera but it does seem like they're growing in influence is is it fair to say at this point that they have kind of shown that Delaware is moving a bit into a more Progressive spot I think there's been a pattern of certainly not all Progressive candidates have met with electoral success at the primary level but there there has been a string of candidates who have and I think the at the policy level the impact of that might be to push the state more progressively in what the legislature does that's exactly what I was going to ask you next which is I mean obviously there still General election to be held but you know Matt Meer clearly has everything going in his favor and he he clearly is more Progressive than John Carney I think nobody would argue that point pairing that with a pro more Progressive house in general and perhaps more Progressive leadership than Valerie Longhurst or before her Pete schwarzkoff brought to the table is is that a sign that some Progressive legislation that perhaps stalled or some people say got watered down wouldn't in the coming years if all the chips fall the way they're expected to yeah I think that's definitely something major to keep an eye on if Meyer manages to win the gator election and some of these candidates who won their primaries go on to win in the general election is for a democratic dominated State Delaware's had some Progressive legislation but I think a lot of progressives have felt that leadership in the legislature and at the in the governor's office has been sometimes a roadblock to going as far as they would want to go so will it go further I think that's definitely something to keep an eye on over the next two years thanks to University of Delaware Communications Professor Paul Brewer Delaware politics director at ud's Center for political communication for joining us on the green this week up next we dive into ways to support youth Civic engagement and get more young people involved in politics you're listening to the green on Delaware Public Media