Victorian School Closures (Australia)

right now we're seeing a lot of questions about when or if the Victorian schools are going to shut down and I think people have a misconception about the way the government and the schools are actually dealing with this coronavirus problem right now and they have said pretty well unequivocally they're not going to be closing schools as a preventative measure they're not going to preemptively close schools they will only be closing schools reactively that is when the virus is in the school or it appears that it is imminent in the school they are not preemptively closing schools to stop the virus getting into the school so I think a lot of parents think that as this gets closer and gets more intense we're going to see a preemptive closing of the schools and the advice that has been given by the government is that is not the case at least at this stage so I think the the message that parents need to know is if you don't want your child to be in a situation where they are at school with an active case of the corona virus or at a school that will likely have a case of the corona virus you really are in a position where the only way to avoid that is take the matters into your own hands and make the decision to take your student out of that school now unfortunately Daniel Andrews has said that any parents that are concerned and make that decision they will not be penalized or punished for making that decision now I'll currently read you the letter that it's on the Department of Health and Human Services website and it sort of covers why they've made this decision and how they've come to the conclusion that they have now the letter is by dr. Brett Sutton who has more letters after his name than I probably ever seen in my life so I would like to think that he's a pretty smart guy he is the Victorian chief health officer and Victorian chief human bio security officer and he says here the Australian Health Protection principle committee AHP pc met recently to consider the issue of school closures in relation to the community transmission of koban 19 the community's advice is that a preemptive school closure are not likely to be proportion or effective as a public health intervention to prevent community transmission of kovat 19 at this time now the important words there are pre-emptive school closures they are not preemptively closing schools and later in the letter it says they will consider closing schools but that will be reactively it's very clear not preemptive reactive he goes on to say there is currently limited information on the contribution of children to transmission of kovat 19 which means they don't have a whole lot of information about whether the kids are carrying it around and spreading it through different societies or not but then he goes on to say the w-h-o china joint mission noted the primary role of household transmission and observed that children tend to be infected from adults so he's saying there's not a whole lot of information about it but what little information is out there they believe at least in China which keep in mind is a different culture with different systems different school setups different family structures that they observed that the children were getting it from the adults at home not the children bringing home and transferring it to the adults previous work suggests that the potential reduction in community transmission from preemptive school closures may be offset by the care arrangements that are in place for children who are not at school this is a particular risk associated with the fact that children may require care from a vulnerable grandparent or may continue to associate and transmitted infection outside school settings so now they're kind of contradicting what he said before where he said that the children are not potentially passing it on to the adults the adults are passing it on to the children and it appears there's concern here that children left home will pass it on to the grandparents so feels like a little bit of picking and choosing of what suits the argument that's trying to be made here so I think there's some cool I think it's fairly questionable how good that information or how much science is behind that one thing that is quite logical that he says here regards or they may continue to associate in transmitted infection outside of school settings so this is obviously concerned these children instead of going to school will be going to shopping malls and hang out large groups and sort of mingling and moving throughout the community in the way that they may spread the virus in an even greater fashion than they would if they're going to school which from what I've heard tends to be a concern really based on the sort of the family structure and the area that you live in and I would think if you send a student home and you give some instructions to the family that that student shouldn't be roaming through the community and going to the mall and hang out with his friends and this is about creating that social distance in creating some sort of isolation to stop the virus that I think you could counteract that concern a bit it goes on to say broadly the health advice on school closures from previous respiratory epidemics shows the cost are often underestimated and the benefits are overestimated so it seems to be a fairly broad statement that's not clear what he's referencing we do know COBIT 19 is brand-new and we have never experienced anything like this before so I think it might be a very rough line he's drawing between this and previous diseases and viruses this may be even more so in relation to coping 19 as unlike influenza the impact on otherwise healthy children has been minimal today now this is true it does appear that the virus has minimal impact on healthy children but this is actually one of the most dangerous things about this virus and that is the fact that 14 percent of cases have no symptoms at all 80 percent of cases have very very mild symptoms and it appears that children really don't get very sick from this on a whole but that makes them a super community of transmitters and they could potentially be the ones that take it throughout the community and eventually take it to the more vulnerable in our community so if we're looking to stamp something out like this we really do have to address the people that get the virus and show no symptoms because when we look at the big picture they are actually the most dangerous carriers of the so I think that is a very poor argument that the kids won't get that sick or seem that sick when they have the virus I think that's a very poor argument as far as you know keeping them in the schools now we go on to say school closures is associated with considerable cost studies have estimated that around 15% of the work force and 30% of the healthcare workforce may need to take time off work to care for children while this effect might be mitigated somewhat it is likely that the burden will still be significant and will fall disproportionately on those in casual and tenuous work circumstances so now we're getting back to economy stuff which is what we've seen a lot in the government's handling of the corona virus in fact at the beginning every time you watch the news conference it was 25 percent about stopping the virus and 75 percent about financial incentives and how people are going to get by and putting money in people's bank accounts so there does appear to be a continually coming back to the money and economy over the healthcare needs of the people in the community and I think that's fairly concerning and I think that is really not a good reason to keep the kids in school for preemptive school closures to be effective prolong school closure is required and it would be unclear when they could be reopened if there are still a large pool of susceptible students when schools are reopened there would likely be a reamer gence of transmission in the community now this is a hundred percent true the only way that there will not be a large pool of susceptible students as either so many students have got the virus and recovered and have built some sort of immunity to it or a vaccine has been produced and children have got the vaccine so not closing the schools to stop people from getting the virus because when they Ganic when they go back they're just gonna get it anyways or because to actually be effective you have to close the schools for a long time I think when we're talking about people's health it really this has to trump every and the fact that we don't know when the kids would go back to school or the fact that if we send them back to school they're at increased risk of getting the virus which we know because they're at school with a bunch of people in close quarters which is exactly what the World Health Organization is telling us not to do of course they're going to be a increased risk of getting the virus but I'm just not sure how that argument makes sense at least to me it goes on to say school closures may be considered late in the outbreak in anticipation of a peak in infection rates for a shorter period of time short term reactive school closures may also be warranted to allow cleaning and contact tracing to occur so this is what we're seeing already the schools are remaining open there's an outbreak or somebody diagnosed in a school with the virus and they shut down the school surprisingly some of these schools have only been shut down for a day or two other moves have been shut down now for weeks but this is the approach that they are taking they wait till the viruses in the school then they shut the school down they clean the school and then they try to find the people that that virus might have been passed along to keeping in mind if the school was preemptively closed and the child was with their family practicing safe social distances and social distancing like the World Health Organization is telling us that child probably wouldn't have got the virus in the first place and there wouldn't be any need for cleaning or tracing so but it does tell us the way they're thinking they're definitely thinking reactive they're definitely thinking the kids will get the virus and then they will deal with it they are not trying to stop the children from getting the virus in the first place and they're not trying to stop the virus from getting into the school in the first place that is the information right from the Department of Human Services I thought it might be helpful to some people particularly those that are waiting and expect to see a preemptive school closure any day now based on the information we have here from the Department of Human Services that is not coming so if you think that your family is better off practicing the World Health Organization's information they're providing about safe social distance and social distancing and you have the ability to keep your child home and make sure that they're in safe and controlled arrangements at home then it may very well be that you make the decision to pull your child from school whatever decision you make good luck with it and I hope this was helpful