WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION. >> TONIGHT WE ARE IN THE KITCHEN. THE TALK A LITTLE TROPICAL WEATHER SPAGHETTI AND THOSE GRAPHICS YOU SEE SO OFTEN ON TV OR ON YOUR SOCIAL MEDIA FEEDS DURING HURRICANE SEASON. >> AND WHEN YOU SEE GRAPHICS LIKE THIS, THEY'RE BASICALLY TRYING TO TELL YOU 2 DIFFERENT THINGS. THE FIRST THING THEY'RE TRYING TO CONVEY TO ME WAS WHAT FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING AND EACH OF THOSE LINES WILL BE ESSENTIALLY REPRESENT A DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS IDEA OR INTERPRETATION AS TO WHERE IT THINKS THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GOING TO GO. THE SECOND TRIES TO CONVEY TO YOU AND WHAT I REFER YOU TO KIND OF FOCUS MORE ON IS THE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE YOU SHOULD PUT IN A PARTICULAR WEATHER FORECAST. AND IT'S ALL BASED ON HOW THE SPAGHETTI MODELS LOOK NOT NECESSARILY WHERE THEY MOVE TO ILLUSTRATE THIS FOR YOU. I'M GOING TO ACTUAL SPAGHETTI. WE'RE GOING TO USE THIS AL THE STANFORD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THESE BLUE PLATES, WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY REPRESENT WHERE THE OCEAN IS. ALRIGHT, COME TAKE A LOOK. ALL RIGHT. SO IF WE HAPPEN TO HAVE A SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE MULTIPLE FORECAST MODELS ALL ENDED UP SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHERE THE MOVEMENT OF THE GENERAL SAME DIRECTION FROROM A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT GIVES US A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT PARTICULAR FORECAST ON THE OTHER HAND, IF OUR SPAGHETTI MODELS LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THIS AND OBVIOUSLY HAVE NO CLEAR AGREEMENT ON WHERE A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO MOVE FROM THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. WALK AWAY FROM THAT FORECAST KNOWING THAT RIGHT NOW WE PRETTY LOW AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN FORECAST MODELS CLEARLY CAN'T AGREE ON WHERE A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO GO. WE JUST HAVE TO GIVE IT THE MODELS MORE TIME TO COOK AS THEY CONTINUE TO PROCESS NEW AND DEVELOPINGNG DATA. SO I YOU RELY ON ONLY WHAT YOU SEE ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER, THERE'S A VERY GOOD CHANCE YOU'RE LOOKING AT SOME REALLY OUTDATED INFORMATION, BEST WAY TO STAY INFORMED, OF COURSE, IS UP WITH NBC. 2 NEWS. >> ONLY GOING AT THE COMPLEX. YOU NEED MAKE SURE YOU'RE MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION FOR