2024 Auburn Football Preview | Fall Camp News | Will Howard, Ohio State QB Battle

number 27 Auburn preview plus news and notes from across the country on good morning college football hello and welcome to episode 77 of good morning college football I'm Nicholas Ian Allen of CFB Winning Edge and campus deanton it is a Monday morning getting a little bit of a late start uh and already fumbling over the name of the team that we will be previewing today on Good Morning college football the number 27 team in our 2024 CFB Winning Edge team strength power rankings that is the Auburn Tigers uh and before we really dig into uh that preview of course as fall camps are opening up across the country uh the preview portion of this show the last couple of episodes has been about 20 minutes in so that's my best guess as of right now if you're here only for the Auburn football preview uh keep that in mind as we move forward but uh what we like to do especially now that again since Boston College hit the uh practice field on Saturday I believe all 134 FBS teams have officially opened opened fall Camp um and we hope to be able to to pass along some important news and information uh as we receive it from uh those schools who are you know hitting the practice field preparing for the 2024 college football season which kicks off now officially in 19 days that week zero uh small uh selection of games will be here in fewer than three weeks um but this is your first time with us uh we very much appreciate it thank you for uh checking out the campus deanton YouTube channel hope that you will subscribe there hope that you will give this video a like uh and if you like what you see both on this show and the other great content options available uh through a wide range of uh you know hosts and and contributors on the campus Canton YouTube channel as well as the campus podcast feed uh we hope that you may consider a subscription to campus to canton.com you can join for as little as 299 per month get access to our Discord uh where there's always uh tons of discussion 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statistically for 2024 and we do cff scoring DFS all that good stuff as well so uh we very much would appreciate if uh you would check us out and uh thank you so much for tuning in today with that in mind let's discuss a little bit of fall Camp news uh there have been uh you know it's a very busy season very busy part of the preseason I should say um you know over the weekend there were big open practices at places like Minnesota Nebraska Kentucky uh there's scrimmages at several School schools I know Florida state had a scrimmage over the weekend um and a lot of teams will offer access especially in those big you know open practices like Minnesota had or Nebraska high-profile um but those aren't always uh you know don't always generate the most news I know there's you know fall Camp uh traveling shows going on caught one in you know from the ACC Network last week where they were at Stanford uh saw some things about the one recently at Illinois uh where apparently it was the least uh interesting practice of fall Camp so far uh for the Alon so you know some teams keep things a little closer to the vest in those situations um and sometimes we just don't get a lot of uh information but um the the perhaps biggest uh thing that that caught my eye over the weekend was it Ohio state where it seems like according to reports um will Howard has really seemingly distanced himself in the competition for uh you know to be the starting quarterback for the Buckeyes this season Dan hope of 11 Warriors had a write up uh I believe this was on Saturday said three days into August practice Howard standing as the leader in Ohio State's quarterback competition feel stronger than it did when Camp opened on on Thursday while true freshman Julian San is pushing uh Devin Brown the you know top expected uh competitor to Howard entering fall Camp uh San is pushing Brown for position behind Howard continuing on some of the things that hope outlined here on 11 Warriors said uh will Howard kept momentum on his side in the third practice of preseason camp following up an underwhelming first day he had a very impressive second day and looked sharp again in the third practice uh on Saturday showing why he's the front runner to be the Buckey starting quarterback despite a shaky spring uh reading here from the piece uh talking about Howard said taking the majority of reps behind the first team offensive line during 11 on 11 work Howard also showcases running ability with with an explosive Sprint up the left sideline that might have been an 80- yard touchdown this occurred against the first team defense which as we've discussed previously might be one of the most talented collection uh of players defensively and in recent memory certainly the way that we calculated at CFB Winning Edge in our roster strength ratings um said if the play hadn't been whistled dead to protect the quarterback continuing on said saan was the most effective quarterback during a Red Zone passing drill early in practice and had what might have been the most impressive throw of the day during during 11 on 11 uh it was uh just a pass interference call apparently but um it was a a lofted perfect deep ball over the outside shoulder of Jeremiah Smith uh drawing a pass interference on Denzel Burke as Smith just narrowly missed hauling in a one-handed catch anyway continuing on the true freshman LED multiple drives behind the first team offensive line during team drills the first we've seen in preseason camp that featured a full first team offense on the field simultaneously suggesting that saan is in the mix to be Ohio State's number two quarterback if Howard's to compet if not Howard's to competition for the starting job there was some reporting earlier in the week that uh Howard and sayyan were getting uh reps in one grouping in you know one particular area of practice while Brown and the other younger quarterbacks were uh practicing with the you know different unit on on in another section of the of the practice area um so this follows along with that it seemingly is been Howard and then Sayan uh and then again final note here from hope uh said Brown had what our contingent of 11 Warriors reported agreed was his worst day of preseason camp so far on Saturday and he ran primarily with the second team offense in drills from Sunday's practice Spencer Holbrook of Letterman row uh says that Ohio State freshman quarterback Julian sa was the only quarterback not named will Howard to take a first team rep during 11 on 11 team drills Sunday unfortunately for saan that one rep was a pick six um but uh continuing on here Holbrook says Howard didn't have his best day of camp that was Saturday but he was still in command of the offense and had the best day of any quarterback out there on Sunday uh Devin Brown took majority of second team reps with the offense um and uh following up gives a little more detail on other positions Holbrook said uh if it hasn't hit its cap already go ahead and buy Carnell Tate stock he catches every ball thrown his way and was one of the stars of Sunday's practice uh H Brook also mentioned that freshman running back James peoples keeps flashing as he says when he earns carries as a second or third string tailback he has a rare burst and really quick feet and he stood out on Sunday and then a little bit of potentially uh something to monitor JT T MOA who has you know All-American first round draft pick type potential was down on the grass after a full team rep and he stayed down for a minute minute or two reading from holbrook's report uh following that he did not return to practice but he appears to be okay he kept his helmet he was n limping or showing any sign of pain he could uh could have been a stinger or a wind knocked out situation uh so that's something honestly that uh seen a little bit um this fall so far there there are quite a few reports and and understandably across you know a wide range of of teams where maybe it's a star player maybe it's uh you know a projected starter um says you know oh so and so went down didn't return not expected to be serious it's difficult to to Really gauge how much uh to to react to those types of reports because sometimes you know it truly is just all right give him the rest of the day off he'll be back the next day he'll be you know fully healthy uh you know put some ice on it tape it up whatever but there are and again this has to do with the level of access that some teams get compared to others or or offer um or you know there's certain restrictions put in place about how much detail can be reported about injuries sometimes that oh yeah you know not expected to be serious and then that player misses a significant chunk of time so um I try not to overreact to any of these uh pieces try to pass along the ones where it seems a little more clear though as we'll discuss in just a minute not all uh of those even seem to be straightforward but um there there is just uh you know keep in mind that the guys are getting banged up and we don't always know the extent uh we try to track most of the you know important ones or where we truly can uh read into Okay this may be something that's going to impact this players's availability in week one or or moving forward try to keep track of those and our team profiles cfp Winning Edge um but I don't know a guy being down for a couple of minutes uh that that certainly catches my eye especially when he's someone as good as uh the two is uh at Cal Jackson Moore of bear territory had some notes from over the weekend that included Ohio State transfer Keon gr's wide receiver has emerged as an early star of fall camp and a potential starter though Moore did not have Grace listed among the top three white outs in his depth chart uh update over the weekend uh Moore also noted that tight end transfer Cory dais from Maryland has been impressive and it looks like the receiving core as a whole uh could be a strength of that offense which you know would be great certainly with running back Jaden a one of the best uh in the ACC um and you know potentially in a fairly short list in the country having a little more balance uh you know offensively if that wide receiver core truly does emerge as a strength uh could be good for K and it's first season in his new conference uh but Mo outlined that neither of the quarterbacks were particularly great uh in his observation over the weekend uh Fernando Mendoza seemingly uh has a slight lead in the competition with Chandler Rogers the transfer from North Texas but as Moore said Mendoza has had some days where the door could be open for Rogers to make a statement and move ahead but I personally haven't seen him take advantage of those days yet uh in the way that Moore put it here Mendoza continues to fend off the new addition by a small margin hopefully someone goes on a tear during camp but either way C is better off this year than last uh seemingly at the quarterback position at Wisconsin Evan flood of badger 247 was on hand for Saturday's practice number five which included the first scrimmage of fall Camp uh wanted to pass along that flood and and some other reporters that have been reading throughout fall Camp uh have mentioned CJ Williams name quite a bit I know there's been plenty of you know discussion about uh will Pauling being the you know slot uh expected to to uh be the slot wide receiver for slot receiver I should say for uh the Badgers and and Phil Longos track record of really featuring that position and paid off uh last season especially towards the end of the year but CJ Williams is a name that's popping up a lot as somebody who's been impressive and flood mentioned specifically um some blocking uh drills and and Reps that were impressive which Williams in the past as I understand not really known much for his blocking ability but uh sounds like he's coming a long way there and and also making some plays early on in Fall camp for the Badgers uh flood noted that senior running back chz bcy was held out of contract drills um Pauling also did not participate in the scrimmage on Saturday and that running back tywi walker seemingly is is expected to be the number two uh running back behind Maloy was the star of the show during the scrimmage uh the Oklahoma transfer reading here from flood said uh ripped off a number of big runs most of which ended with a defender or two on the ground when they dared get in his way Walker almost singlehandedly led a touchdown Drive blowing through contact on a fourth and three on the next play he brushed off two tackles in route to the endzone so um most you know even though there have been reports from flood and others saying oh maloi is limited or you know not going through uh contact drills still looks like a thousand yard rusher looks like the number one you know expected to be the number one running back but if you know Ty Walker continues to impress and this wasn't the first uh time I saw mention of of him having a great practice session um perhaps it'll be a little bit more of a you know shared workload there with maloi and Walker some injury news at Florida Nick delator uh posted over I think it was maybe Friday night uh that running back Montel Johnson suffered a knee injury and had routine arthoscopic surgery to clean it up and the important part to me said he's week to week but it's not believed that he will miss an extended period of time so that's a little bit uh difficult to decipher but when I hear week to week that makes me think okay the chance of him not being available in week one probably pretty high that's my own interpretation we'll we'll certainly uh look for more news from deor and and other folks on the floor to beat uh but as of right now maybe the most uh significant injury uh bit of news that that we've had in the early uh bit of fall Camp is that Montel Johnson did have a uh surgery not long ago to uh clean up some issues with a knee injury and is week to week another running back that we discussed in our most recent show on Friday uh a little bit of an update and and kind of a cloudy situation at BYU Mitch Harper of KSL was among the re excuse me among the reporters on hand to follow up a story uh from the Deseret News earlier in the week where LJ Martin was reportedly expected to miss you know few what three or four weeks I believe it was uh this season early on due to injury so um reading here from Harper's piece said the rising sophomore has not been seen during team portions of practice and media observation windows on Friday or excuse me on Wednesday and Friday's practice there were reports this week that Martin would miss game action to open the season on Friday Martin addressed the media in a scrum of reporters quote I'm participating in everything I've been out here with the guys just out here competing so it's been real fun just being out here for the first couple of days of Camp Harper says when asked about his health level at the moment Martin replied quote I'll be good I'm good right now I'll be good uh continuing here from Harper said to close up his press availability Martin was asked if the expectation is that he will play in week one against Southern Illinois in four weeks Martin said quote Yeah so unclear EXA I mean I say clear because you know the the reporting uh earlier suggested might miss upwards of a month of the Season uh seemingly you know I mean if a if a player is is going to say yeah I'm ready to go I'm good I'm ready to go I'm practicing that seems fairly clear I suppose but the the contradiction between the two for me I've I've got some questions it wouldn't shock me one way or the other if we see Martin immediately in week one or if uh he misses some time this wouldn't be the first case of somebody saying they're healthy and then uh not being able to to take the field in week one so we'll continue to keep our eyes on that as well uh at Louisville a little more detail on the skill positions following up uh a piece from Keith WN or of a Card Chronicle uh who put it pretty well at the running back position said the running back job appears to be Maurice Turner to lose he is getting first reps and he hasn't wasted the opportunity this was uh I believe a report on Friday so haven't seen much followup over the weekend um but as when put it uh jakori Brooks and Chris Bell will make up a nice conversation as out combination excuse me as outside receivers Bell looks like he's ready to take the next step and be a number one receiver that you know compare that to the note that we discussed on Friday where Brooks was uh reportedly uh quarterback Tyler Shuck's favorite Target of that opening practice so uh a little bit of you know conflicting information there continuing here from W he said in the slot Colin Lacy has looked solid but not as explosive as I had hoped he would be I think he would have a strong season but I would like to see him make more big plays in practice before I set expectations for him to have a Rond Del Moore type impact in Bron's offense Rond Del Moore uh just you know absolute Superstar for Jeff Braum at Purdue um especially early on you know his first year on campus Lac see the transfer from South Alabama there you know were some uh comparisons to him when the news uh of his transfer to Louisville uh you know became official but that's cooled a little bit especially in recent weeks with bell getting a lot of Buzz and then that report from Brooks so uh again as always we'll we'll keep an eye and and see if we get any new information uh at Utah State a couple of wide receivers have transferred the biggest name of note Micah Davis uh who has uh reportedly landed at om Miss uh Brad Logan uh reporter on the ground there uh has uh confirmed some other reporting that de Davis was headed potentially to Oxford I saw something uh that uh he had considered Illinois as well I believe um the portal is still open at Utah State uh as well as Fresno State with the late coaching changes at both of those Mountain West institutions uh saw a little bit of Buzz that you know USC was uh maybe still hoping to get an offensive lineman after it had missed after the spring uh window closed so maybe you know keep an eye on uh that for Utah State or Fresno State as we move forward but nothing nothing officially reported out there that I've seen and and most of the real updates that we're making on our team profiles and we do you know probably 90% of the stuff I'm reading and reacting to and and making adjustments in our team profiles doesn't make it to this news uh section A lot of it is offensive line related you know this morning I changed the projected starter at right tackle for charlot for example but um you know also again try not to over react to uh particular you know pecking order and a in one drill and a 10 or 15 minute viewing period and also those those you know little bits of injury news it's hard to know which of those uh are really going to be impactful and which really aren't at SMU um there are a couple of offensive linemen who have been banged up uh Leah Asaka pal and my apologies for mispronunciation there of the the Dallas morning news uh reported that head coach Rett Lashley you know announced a couple of offensive linemen were banged up missed some time including transfer Andrew shambley who has a knee injury uh Lashley reportedly said uh that shambley injury is not serious uh but running back Kamar weaton also suffered any injury and and sounds like um they're not quite writing off the the you know he doesn't have the not expected to be serious designation so keep an eye on that the former fstar Alabama transfer and what is a deep SMU running back situation but uh weaton perhaps uh not going to be a major uh piece if that is a significant bit of uh you know injury news there all right so let's get ready here to turn our attention to the Auburn Tigers who have a posted win total of seven at a half for uh the regular season here uh according to DraftKings and Auburn is uh a team where I was a little bit surprised I thought we were going to be on the high end uh in our projections in our rankings having Auburn uh right on the outside of the top 25 looking in at number 27 Auburn is the 11th team in our SEC power ranking so even though they're a fringe top 25 team uh it's not like our you know overall expectations are uh super high for the Tigers coming off a six and seven uh season with three and five as uh their SEC record but year two for Hugh freeze I don't have a way to quantify it but I've said before often kind of expect a year to bump in most situations freeze has a pretty good track record in year two in his previous stops um and definitely expecting offense to take a step forward even though you know there were some expectations or or certainly some discussion that perhaps freeze would go after a high-profile quarterback transfer bring in some competition or or perhaps replace uh returning starter pton Thorne but instead seemingly freeze and and his coaching staff uh look to solidify the wide receiver group around Thorne bringing in a couple of potential excuse me poal uh starters via the transfer portal and Keandre Lambert Smith from Penn State Robert Lewis from Georgia State and the uh recruiting chail has really really paid off for Auburn cam Coleman the true freshman already taking reps with the first team offense expected to have a Major Impact uh in his first year on the planes Perry Thompson true freshman as well the addition of Sam Jackson is uh pretty intriguing we talked about the cow quarterback competition earlier Jackson was playing quarterback at Cal last year expected to uh play wide receiver where he re uh you know reconnects with Thorne uh they have a a history dating back to high school and Jackson had a lot of success as a wide receiver there before transitioning to quarterback so um pretty interesting setup on the offensive side of the ball which was uh a little bit of a disappointment last year as we will discuss um but Auburn is a team that like I said the expectations elsewhere um vary a bit I thought we were going to be on the high side but in fact beta rank is the highest that I've seen among computer analytics projections uh uh number 14 in the country in uh the 2024 projections there uh ESPN's football power index has all at number 19 um on the more you know uh opinion uh media personality side of the equation in his post spring uh Power Rankings Andy Staples Von three had Auburn 20th uh back on the computer side of things Kelly Ford the Kay Ford ratings have Auburn 23d um and SP plus ESPN and Bill Connelly's projections system has Auburn 31st so among that group we are actually on uh a little bit of the low end many of the other uh more you know media National Outlets uh Athlon Sports the sporting news um the most recent 247 Sports top 25 that was just posted um don't have Auburn in the top 25 so uh we're we're maybe uh you know on par a little higher on the Tigers than that group but um one of the the interesting things you know these projection models like beta rank like ours don't offer a lot of detail as to why necessarily that's why I try to go in and and pull up the team profile pull up the returning production and show you where these numbers are coming from as best I can but most of them you know unless there's a written piece Bill Conelly often does to supplement his rankings uh we maybe don't get a ton of detail on each team so I I did think it was interesting why Staples who seemingly you know among the the national uh media personalities that that we've uh compared our rankings to throughout this entire preview series uh did you know wanted to to dig into why he uh maybe was higher on Auburn than than just about everybody else in the industry uh from his standpoint says in Reading here from uh that uh rankings piece that Staples put out earlier in the summer the biggest mistake H freze made in year one was abdicating play calling duties and then in parenthesis what is it about Auburn that makes Elite play callers think they shouldn't call plays continuing on he said that error has been corrected and now a coach whose play calling once scared Nick Sabin into trying to change the rules will full we excuse me will be fully Unleashed with new communication technology that allows him to say quote throw it to cam Coleman on the dagger directly into his QB's ear from the sideline finishing up Sable says if Auburn can avoid another New Mexico State situation this season expect a significant jump uh the loss to New Mexico state of course and hu fre has had back-to-back losses against New Mexico State pretty disappointing uh there for uh his last couple of years first at Liberty and last season at Auburn um but fortunately I guess the agie not on the schedule this season New Mexico the Lobos are uh in week three uh which looks like a very manageable you know non-conference slate for the tigers um as we'll get to here in in just a minute but uh last bit here David Hal of espn.com wrote a uh piece that put all 134 FBS quarterback situations into tiers it's been very helpful for us for this preview series uh he along you know put put a note or usually a stat for each uh starting quarterback or projected starting quarterback that that kind of helps explain why he put a a QB in a particular tier and I think pton Thorne in this Auburn quarterback room is the lowest uh in hail's tiers that we've discussed in these previews uh coming in at tier 13 Thorne is alongside the quarterback situation uh at places like Illinois Iowa and Purdue also Houston kind of interesting since Donovan Smith's been uh you know a pretty Buzzy name in the very very early 2025 NFL draft conversation but hail outlines here that Thorne against teams that finish with a winning record in 2024 in those six starts he had a 42.1 total quarterback rating completed 54.3% of his passes for four touchdowns five interceptions and average just 5.05 yards per pass attempt which is uh horrible basically uh against teams with a losing record another six starts uh his qbr was 73 completed 67.6% of his passes 12 touchdowns five picks and averaged 8.12 yards per pass attempt still some room for improvement there but uh more than three yards better than uh the best teams that aurn played and in Hugh F's 11-year career as a head coach according to hail last year marked the lowest total of passing yards passing touchdowns yards per drop back and completions of 20 yards or more by his quarterback so those numbers probably explain a little bit why um there was a lot of chatter let's say early on that pton Thorne maybe not the best long-term option for Auburn maybe bringing in another transfer to compete at the very least or you know could there be a situation where a true freshman Walker white gets an opportunity to truly compete for the job uh as of right now sounds like Thorne is is uh the very you know highly likely to be uh the starter in week one against Alabama A&M but we'll just see if if he continues to play poorly against you know the better teams on the schedule uh maybe he won't be able to hold on to that job I personally am fairly optimistic I think that Thorne um is going to have a bit of a bounceback here but of course we will see so let's dig into some of the details here I will share my screen bringing up the uh 2024 CFB Winning Edge team profiles try to zoom in a little bit give you a better look here uh up in the top left corner you see our FPS power ranking those are team strength power rankings uh or connected to our team strength power ratings which we use to project point spreads for every matchup uh those ratings are built using our roster strength ratings where we take you know the recruiting uh ratings coming out of high school and uh make some adjustments based on experience and career production to give us an individual player rating we call it a video game rating very similar not exactly the same uh but similar to what you might see in the a sports college football 5 video game uh the only difference or or not the only difference but one of the differences is several years ago uh after making some adjustments along the way we started this in 2018 uh we decided we're going to break through that 99 threshold we now un uh you know have taken off the cap so players can have a rating into the 100s we did that to sort of differentiate the best of the best uh from the group and our ratings are a little higher than what you'll you'll see in the video game we made these when the video game was dead so uh we sort of fine-tuned it without using that as as our uh you know real rubric for for a little while but um the other big piece of it uh those roster strength ratings again sorry uh use those individual player ratings we build those up into uh position ratings and unit ratings and then those overall roster strength ratings we also have a team performance rating which is the complete opposite has nothing to do with Talent only looks at statistics uh in advanced stats uh so how well a team performs on the field uh the numbers that go into those use uh uh numbers against FBS opponents only in the regular season only so no bll game stats um and then also uh when possible we filter for garbage time uh and then our head coach ratings are uh part of the piece uh or are a piece of the puzzle as well well and those head coach ratings are specifically um team performance ratings but tied to each head coach so if there is a coaching change that's where you'll see a little bit of a difference there uh but for the most part especially if a coach's been somewhere for you know three years or more uh the head coach rating and and the team performance weight in our overall team ratings not going to be too much different but uh okay so looking at last season we go to the middle of our team profile score all the way down to uh this the bottom portion of the schedule where it has our 2023 results and comparing the wins and losses to those postgame win expectancy numbers from college football dat.com so if you were to play that game a hundred times a thousand times however many uh that's how many uh or what percentage of the time you would expect Auburn to have won most everything went according to plan there weren't you know uh really uh any situations where Auburn just completely outplayed its opponent statistically speaking and lost or uh was incredibly unlucky you could say that Alabama loss uh might fall into that category the you know fourth and whatever uh that that Alabama was able to break the hearts of Auburn and the ironbowl uh but still you know statistically speaking that box score showed that Auburn should have only won that game 15% of the time time so that was uh like it or not according to the advanced box score a deserved uh Alabama Victory but starting off the season uh the Tigers performed quite well even though that Cal game was very close uh the Tigers would have won it 99% of the time according to the box score once they got into SEC play very very difficult start to uh that portion of the schedule a very difficult portion of the schedule uh but four consecutive losses the closest of which against Old Miss still uh fewer than than uh uh you know or a lower than 20% chance of winning that game according to the numbers little bit of a streaky team Auburn last season or I guess very much so uh three more victories in a row took care of business against teams that you would expect Auburn to beat Mississippi State Vanderbilt and Arkansas but then right when it looked like things were you know turning the corner uh that inexplicable loss and and pretty uh I mean dominant fashion New Mexico State really controlled that game um comes ahead of that ironbowl Heartbreaker and then losing to Maryland in the bowl game uh sent Auburn to a uh you know final record of six and seven according to the second order winds where we you know give a will win uh credit for that UMass game and that Samford game Mississippi State in Arkansas where Auburn was 100% in the post game numbers but then giving 0 N9 against Cal 08 against Georgia 0.8 against all miss this Auburn team uh you know maybe very very close to to being a seven- win team 6.45 in the second order wins number again according to college football data and those uh postgame win expectancy numbers sta St istically you know digging into some of our favorites the issue for Auburn or at least the area with the the most uh to improve was on the offensive side of the ball uh in you know the 60s 70s and a little bit worse in some of our favorite stats 68th in scoring offense again FBS opponents only regular season only uh 69th in yards per play 69th in points per drive that according to Brian fmo of BCF toys.com that number is filtered for garbage time uh 99th in yards per pass attemp going back to that note from David hail especially against teams with a winning record and and pton Thorne uh not enough explosive plays through the air 65th in success rate 78th in the EPA per play equivalent we use from college football data.com they call it PPA uh on the defensive side of the ball in most areas not all but a bit of a step forward scoring defense top four 40 nationally yards per play against 73rd a little bit disappointing but points per Drive much better 39th yards per pass attempt again too many explosive plays on defense 7.59 there was 84th nationally success rate against 43rd so Auburn did a little bit better job uh in that uh you know more efficiency uh related number and then EPA per play top 50 nationally just barely so on net a lot of mid-50 the 70s that yards per pass attempt the biggest area of concern 92nd in uh net yards per pass attempt being uh 1.12 yards below zero also negative in net yards per play uh and just barely uh in the positive in points per drive so Auburn definitely some area of improvement statistically speaking and and I think that we will see it uh this this upcoming season all right making the move here to our CFB Winning Edge returning production database who's coming back who's not from that six and seven season uh the maybe most important thing just in in the overall number Auburn ranks 25th top 25 nationally in our adjusted returning production numbers these are uh adjusted for incoming transfers so 25th overall when we take into count the players coming in 18th on the offensive side of the ball 66th defensively um in terms of raw returning production so just who's coming back who's not from last year's roster Auburn would have ranked 38th still top 20 on offense 81st defensively but uh the passing production gets thrown off just a little bit because Sam Jackson played quarterback last year so uh his addition offsets the passing uh and then some left uh when Robbie Ashford transferred to South Carolina but pton Thorne coming back lackluster numbers one way to put it 1755 yards passing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt 16 touchdowns 10 picks uh definitely uh expect a bit of an improvement there certainly for Auburn's case hope uh that he will improve uh the running situation is a bit better J Hunter back and and hopefully available for the full season fully healthy uh came up a little shy of 1,000 yards 99 yards and seven touchdowns 5.7 yards per attempt is quite impressive deari Austin is the top returning running back backup to Hunter over 300 yards and two touchdowns tragic situation with Brian uh B uh so he will uh not factor in this season um Robbie Ashford offered a real boost at the quarterback position Off the Bench primarily as well five touchdowns there but pton Thorn can run it a little bit over 500 yards um and three touchdowns so you know as uh much as he maybe struggled as a passer um his running ability is a is an asset I'd say for Auburn uh at receiver losing Javaris Johnson and Jay far to the transfer portal maybe not the the biggest hit because Robert Lewis and Keandre Lambert Smith coming in uh Le Lewis put up great numbers at Georgia State over 100 targets 70 catches 881 yards and seven touchdowns sounds like he's off to a good start this spring as well Lambert Smith uh you know it wasn't the the smoothest uh exit from Pinn state but uh somebody who's played a lot of football at a high level uh 53 catches 673 yards and full touchdown sounds like he by most expectations probably going to be your top Target for Auburn this year but maybe it's going to be cam Coleman as well uh or or you know he'll certainly I think be in the mix the true freshman I should say uh at tight end ralo Fairweather an all SEC performer 38 catches 394 yards and six touchdowns so a lot of good production from him as well uh the offensive line a little bit of uh you know a little bit of experience loss with two full-time starters gunar Brittain and cam stuts moving on get some experience coming in via the transfer portal Roman Chambers and Percy Lewis uh also Conor Lou got about a half season's worth of starting experience last year uh with Avery Jones who is out of Eligibility uh at the the center position on defense top two tacklers from last season return and Eugene Asante and Jaylen moud also get the addition of Dorian mousy uh so that linebacker core a lot of experience a lot of tackle production coming back Kon Crawford the transfer from Arkansas State uh kind of a personal favorite of mine he had nearly 40 pressures in the sun Bel last season excited to see what he can do in the SEC getting keontay Scott back at corner is of course key uh but that that sort of you know second tier of tackle production a lot of guys moving on Larry Nixon the thir Marcus Harris Jaylen Simpson DJ James Zan Pucket so that second secondary behind Scott going to have to replace a lot of snaps a lot of uh production you know losing Donovan Kaufman via the transfer portal uh was also an impactful move so Auburn you know had more to replace on defense certainly uh than offense but that was the strength of this team last season and me personally I don't I don't see uh a significant drop off back to our team profiles and you saw it earlier the projected starting offense with Thorn and Hunter and Fairweather all back as returning starters brand new wide receiver core uh we expect Lambert Smith Lewis and Coleman to be the starters we will keep our ear to the ground uh to see how that rotation is is working itself out in Fall Camp uh to determine you know if if changes need to be made there but Sam Jackson Camden Brown Perry Thompson uh could likely factor in as well on the offensive line we've got Lewis penciled in as a starter at left tackle uh Chambers right now not expected to to start with Lou and Jaden muskrat uh returning from uh you know not starter level snaps but um both on the field for you know more than a quarter in muskrats case Lou was there for 52 and a half% of snaps last season at Center so those two expected most likely to to emerge as start starters defensively uh a lot of uh starters quote unquote returning starters which we use just 51% uh of of starts from last season is The Benchmark there so a lot in the front seven or or front six in Auburn's case returning with McLoud Jason Jones Krick faul Eugene Asante uh in the secondary just one full-time starter in Scott coming back but again multiple players that got significant experience K Lee 40% of snaps last season Caleb wooden about a quarter of snaps jiren Thompson the transfer coming in from Texas he was a starter 31 starts in his career for the Longhorns we've got Crawford right now is the number two buck that you know sort of uh hybrid Edge Defender um but wouldn't be surprised if if he plays um you know roughly half of of the team snaps maybe even more depending on how things shake out the addition of tril Carter coming in uh who was at uh Minnesota early in his career 30 game starter there Texas uh last season but expected to to get back into the mix as a starter uh at least that's my expectation at Auburn the additions of Philip bloody and and Doran mousy and Antonio kite as well um the odd transfer from Alabama um expected to to step in and play some significant snaps all right getting to the schedule again that uh projected uh or posted win total regular season win total from uh DraftKings as of this morning was 7 and a half for Auburn we come in just a little bit below that at 7.12 that is our official projection from CFB Winning Edge we've been doing those for every FBS team dating back to the 2021 season we've been correct 60.4 or 60.5% of the time doing that across all FBS teams so pretty good track record but we're are kind of testing a new version of that win total projection it's mostly geared towards the extremes because we are almost always going to be under a team that's projected for you know 11 10 and a half 10 wins we're pretty much always going to be over a team projected for or you know posted at 2 and 1/2 three three and a half wins uh so Auburn doesn't get a a major adjustment because we give a 10% bonus for a team if it's favored in a matchup and a 10% penalty if it's projected as an underdog Auburn is is at you know six and six in those situations the way we project it right now so that wind total wouldn't change but the important thing I think to note is the strength of schedule ranking for Auburn is 48th which is very much on the low end for an SEC team the non-conference schedule sets up really quite well uh with Alabama mcal New Mexico and ULM late in the season all home games uh so that I think is key uh getting Arkansas in the SEC opener also at home is uh a nice setup uh Oklahoma having to travel to Jordan hair stadium is uh important there as well sorry just checking making sure the the cow uh game was at home this year being away last season uh the middle of the Season it it once again gets a bit more difficult I mean Oklahoma is is not a slam dunk we have the sooner favored in that game though it is a winnable one for the Tigers we are higher on Oklahoma than most um at Georgia going to be a significant Underdog there uh do get a week off extra week to prepare but a second straight road game uh at Missouri who has higher expectations in Colombia than we've seen in quite a long time and then a third straight road game including back-to-back weeks at Kentucky to me that's a that's a pretty tricky spot um and we do have the wild cats favored Kentucky again a team that we're a little bit higher on I think than most uh should get back in the wind column if things don't go well in that uh section and and you know Auburn absolutely could uh I think beat Oklahoma Missouri or Kentucky Georgia's going to be tough not saying that's that's an automatic loss by any stretch but um you know maybe Auburn might have an opportunity uh my expectation would be two and two in that four game stretch um but that would be an overachievement compared to how we have those projected just based on you know Auburn being Underdog and all of those again back on the you know favored against Vanderbilt then an extra week off um which maybe not the most ideal uh off week um don't need maybe that extra week to prepare for ULM um but Texas A&M that game is is basically a top toss up being uh on the planes is is I think of course uh very significant and then at Alabama Auburn always plays the tide uh tough um and certainly you know this is a different Alabama program now than than we have seen recently so um do have the Crimson Tide favored by a significant margin almost double digits but I wouldn't be shocked um if that's once again a very very competitive game so uh this this Auburn team the expectations the outcomes um there's a range you know kind of like how the other projection models some were a good bit higher some a little bit lower the the consensus or you know the the general feeling I think uh for the the you know National media uh is that this is a team that has a lot of potential but probably not ready to break through as a top 25 uh you know not not going to break into the top 25 in the polls unless there's a big year two bump especially on offense under Hugh freeze which I do think is possible again going back to hail's point uh freeze now the play caller um second year for pton Thorne I think he's going to take a step forward there the revamped wide receiver room uh should be a step in the right direction so maybe that puts a lot more of these toss-ups um into the uh winnable category or or games where you legitimately could see um Auburn knocking off in Oklahoma or Missouri uh taking care of business in K you know at Kentucky by the time that game kicks off maybe Auburn's favored our projections do change based on um those adjustments for production in the season if Thorne gets off to you know throws for a th yards in those first three games um he's going to be a higher rated player by by time uh Auburn's traveling to Kentucky so you know maybe maybe that number will shift a bit um but getting to a bowl game seems like uh the the obvious expectation coming up short of that would be a major disappointment um you know going 4 and0 and in non-conference plays going to go a big way towards that taking care of business against teams like Vander built uh and even Arkansas where Auburn should have a talent advantage and speaking of that Auburn in our talent Edge projections which only look at those roster strength numbers uh to suggest how a matchup should go uh a lot more fall on the Alburn side of things we've got Auburn favored in the first four and then uh a stretch of five games so nine uh of uh 12 regular season matchups we give Auburn the talent Edge so if we only look Talent with a small adjustment for home field advantage um Auburn's in in good shape there and on the other side of things our prism model or projected scoring margin which is only based on uh those those Advanced stats so it's the opposite of the talent Edge um Auburn in a little bit better situation there four uh you know projected as a favorite once again in the first four also favored against Kentucky and uh you know the rest goes according to plan but Pro in seven there so s and five seems to be the most likely outcome again based on our wind total projection but it would not Shock me at all if Auburn is able to uh get that eighth win and maybe there's even a little bit higher of a ceiling if um you know they're able to to pick up a couple of games that we currently have them projected as underdogs Texas A&M and Kentucky probably the most likely maybe Oklahoma as well since they're transitioning there to the SEC so that is going to do it for us today thank you so much for joining us we will be back on Wednesday uh with another preview uh of our number 28 team in our preseason uh Team strength power rankings as of right now that's Oklahoma State uh so if there's not any significant news that uh bumps somebody ahead of the pokes or uh puts them behind maybe Iowa there next on the list we should be spending probably at least half of our show discussing Oklahoma State next week we will of course be on the lookout for important fall Camp news as more comes available the previews might get a little bit shorter but uh we'll try toh still uh give the the rest of the teams uh this month as we head towards week zero uh try to try to stay on top and and give them their uh time as well but um if you haven't already uh please we we very much would appreciate you giving this video a like and also if you would subscribe to the campus K YouTube channel uh and also we would love if you might consider becoming a member at campus toon.com you can join for as little as $299 per month or take advantage of everything we've got to offer including these team profiles that you see here our retur production database and our CFB wining Edge team uh statistical projections all of those are available to C2C Winning Edge and all 22 tier memb so uh with that we will uh say goodbye until Wednesday thanks so much joining us and until then take care