Intro this 2023 Texans team was a revelation last year from worst to First and can they repeat it in 2024 because a lot has changed on this roster both offensively and defensively I'm going to go over everything about them including some stats that I found that kind of tell me the future predicting every game on the schedule a win or a loss and then ending with the best bet for the Houston Texans in 2024 CJ strads sophomore season after a meteoric rise in his rookie season one of the best debuts we've seen in quite some time what's going to happen to them though that's what today's video is all about and this is the beginning of my AFC South previews the next three days or the rest of that division the AFC North and AFC East are already up on the page same video for every single team you can go check it out give me a like give me a subscribe help this channel grow I do truly appreciate it but without any further Ado let's check in with the Texans so what has changed for Offseason Changes the Houston Texans well a lot has changed you guys know the big names like Stefan Diggs on the defensive side of the ball by my count there's going to be seven new defensive starters in 2024 than they were in 2023 gone to the likes are Jonathan granard Malik cin Sheldon rankins and in are guys like Aziz Al shahir and of course denil Hunter who is a sack machine and him with Will Anderson Jr on the edge should make for a lot of fun also adding on this rookie class guys like Kamari Lasser who are going to be pushed to start right away and could this team build this defense through the draft while also so spending big money on some bigname veterans while CJ strout is on this rookie deal you could create something really special here in Houston if this all works out together however it's rare that all of these names work it's rare that everyone hits a home run not just in the draft but in free agency and we are paying a lot of money to some of these guys that there's a reason they left their team or the team that they originally played for let them go interested to see how it all works out in Houston and it will take some time for this defense to Jael however it should be better than last year and then there's the big name the biggest addition Stefan Diggs himself we'll talk about Joe Mixon in a little bit but on the offensive side Stefan Diggs makes a huge difference maybe he was kind of cast aside in Buffalo during the end of the season and they were very okay to trade him away for pennies on the dollar making huge money as a wide receiver but again as long as strout is on that rookie deal you don't care what you're paying to other players for a contender but I'm excited to see Stefan Diggs on this team even though he's not the Stefan Diggs of old because if he's your third best receiver and on Houston he is that is an excellent thing to have this passing offense with strout should still Excel above all of the rest and Stefan Diggs will definitely help that along he's so much better than a Robert Woods or a Noah brown or any of the other guys you were throwing out in this third wide receiver spot it's largely still going to run through Nico Collins and tank Dell but Stefan Diggs adding on just adds another wrinkle to this team that makes it almost impossible to defend I loved the move by Houston even again if he's not a number one anymore this makes Houston a very formidable opponent in the offensive side of the ball and they're going to need to be because the rest of the things I'm going to talk about aren't so bright for Houston let's dive into some of the Three Biggest Stats stats that I found that kind of paint a picture on why I'm a little questionable on Houston's success this year not only do they have the 26th or 27th depending on where you look at it strength of schedule it's going to get a lot more difficult and it's going to get a lot more difficult for the defense this Texans team last year they faced the number one easiest slate of quarterbacks as a defense this year they're facing the 10th hardest which sounds like that top 10 is not that bad but considering the jump it's a hell of a lot harder and when you look at passing offenses as a whole from efficiency standpoint from pass protection from all the explosive play metrics the offenses that Houston are facing this year compared to last year it's the second largest jump in difficulty in the league on the rushing side of the ball the rushing offense is that the Texans defense is facing it's the third highest jump in the league put those together it's the toughest jump in difficulty at least what's expected out of these offenses that we're getting in 2024 the toughest jump and difficulty that any defense in the NFL is facing so when I say all those bigname free agents all those draft picks that are going to be starting immediately this young defense trying to gel together with some high pric veterans they need to gel together almost immediately because the Slate of offenses that they are playing it's a hell walk towards the finish line and then you jump into variable stats you guys know how much I like to know what the one score record was for these teams last year cuz naturally they fall back to the middle Houston was seven and3 in one- score games last year it's going to fall back to the middle they're going to lose less games than they won last year in the one- score category that's naturally how it always pans out they were also plus 10 and turnover margin CJ strou just did not throw turn the ball over at all and this Houston defense didn't really generate too much but they still ended up plus 10 that should come back to the mean however the biggest variable stat in Houston's favor is their injury luck last year just the year from Hell on the injury uh front for this team they were 32nd in the league in injured players last year in the offensive line 32nd in the league as you guys know so this team is going to be healthier this year it's going to be better this year and it should equal out the ones score and turnover margins however even with a healthy offense line the biggest stat that I'm worried about has to do with the running game even with the greatness that is CJ stad offensive coordinator Bobby slowick who everyone in the world wants to be their new head coach for reasons that are unknown to me he ran the ball at the six highest rate in first halfs last year even though the Houston Texans fa the fifth highest rate of stacked boxes meaning more Defenders up at the line of scrimmage Less in the back field defensive back Corners safeties Etc fifth highest stack box rate by the defense saying hey please pass the ball on us and we're still running at the sixth highest rate did it succeed no it did not succeed they had the 27th highest yards per carry in first halfs on these runs now you're going to say they fixed it right they got Joe Mixon from the Cincinnati Bengals gone as Devin Singletary head off to New York Damen Pierce afterthought on this team Joe Mixon had 78.8% of all backfield Touches for his team last year the guy is a Workhorse that's the most in the NFL by far 80% of the rushing attempts from the Bengals were on mixon's back this guy can carry the load and you're absolutely right the volume Workhorse ability is there however he is not much different than Devin single ter even if you factor in the offensive line woes that Houston faed in Cincinnati last year Joe uh Joe Mixon even without Joe burrow and the toughness that they had the numbers that you're seeing on the screen right now are exactly the same as Devon single ter in success rate yards per carry explosive Rush rate this guy essentially is a bigger name than the actual talent that He is and to me he is a replacement level player at the running back position is is he available is he a Workhorse does he not get injured knock on wood absolutely he has shown that in Spades this guy is always going to be suiting up and that is definitely a good trait to have in a running back however when it comes to the actual running portion of the game he's replaceable you can have him be just about anyone else in the league and be fine with it and yet Joe Mixon was the guy they decided to invest in for this offense and I don't see it improving as much even though SLO will continue to call these rushing plays and back to the stack Box Thing where're fifth highest stack box rate against this Houston team I think that lessons because of how great the passing offense will be but even if it only lessens a little bit or even if it lessens to the middle of the road Joe Mixon since he entered the NFL has had the highest rate of light boxes in the league because he played for Cincinnati and Joe burrow in that passing offense he rarely faced more defenders in the box with the normal and with Houston that number is not going to be the same he's going to have a tougher Hill to climb against what will be a worse offensive line or or with a worse offensive line against what will be a tougher defense I don't like Mixon on this team I don't think it was the right choice to pay him this money but that's what we're going with and I think it hurts Houston in the long run but let's get to the schedule what Schedule Breakdown does it matter in the end what the stats say what the players say it matters who wins and who loses so let's dive in Go game by game quarter by quarter and we're trying to see if they have over or under N9 and 1 half wins by the end of this exercise if they are 10- seven or better they hit the over if they are 9 and eight or worse they hit the under I've done a lot of AFC teams so far and I have four of them in the 10- win category so we're going to need to hit 10 wins if we're hoping to be another playoff team for Houston and this team's good enough to do so however that schedule is difficult first four games you need to get off to a good start I do believe you beat beat Indie in a divisional match up right off the top however I think you lose to a much improved Chicago team before winning the next two games again another divisional game against Jacksonville there I think we're three and one to start and it's a pretty positive start but again in the next slate here it's a back and forth schedule for Houston a tough game an easy game a tough game an easy game and then the end of the road is very very difficult I don't think Stefan Diggs wins his revenge game against Buffalo I think Buffalo pulls that one out and then at New England what will be a tough defense they're not as good to keep up with Houston that's a win at Green Bay however this is a a Nexus point for the Houston team if Houston wins this game I think they have a Stell season we're talking potentially an AFC one seed however if Houston loses this game I think Green Bay is a playoff team in the NFC a huge game for both sides and I think Green Bay is better than Houston at this point and I cannot wait to watch it follow that up with another win against a really bad Indie team this year sorry to all the Colts fans out there we're heading into week nine at 5 and three these next five games before the buy are also really interesting to me we have three very tough opponents in a row and then we finish with two divisional games both of which will have a rest disadvantage for the Texans in those games I think they lose to the Jets in New York on Thursday Night Football come back though and beat Detroit because they have a few extra days rest and then lose to Dallas I don't think Dallas is as good as they were last year but again on the road Monday Night Football in that Arena it's going to be very high-scoring game I think Dak Prescott comes out out on top following up with these divisional games I hate Tennessee this year but this is a tough spot for Houston look for the upset here I'm giving Houston a win but Tennessee might be live in this game the next week though Jacksonville is coming off a their buy and I think Jacksonville gets their win back and after the buy these final four games the NFL schedule makers did Houston some favors and also did Houston no favors they are one of the teams that are playing on this Christmas schedule three games in 5 days at the end of the season however they're coming off of their bu entering into this which these other teams are not the first one's Miami I don't like Miami this year plus you have 7-Day rest Advantage coming off of the buy I'm getting a win here where eight and six and then it's Kansas City and Baltimore with that tight 4-day window window in between them they lose the road game but they win Baltimore the home game so suddenly we have one more win we're 9 and seven can we get there to 10 and seven hit this over against Tennessee with the rest Advantage at the end of the year I think Tennessee is playing for the number one overall pick at this point and forfeits this game they might write in by Raven and say now we're good just take the W and move on I think Houston wins barely hitting this over at 10 and seven and I'm very okay being wrong here I don't think they're a 10- win team however the schedule worked out the way it did I don't like what they've added in the rushing game I'm not sure I'm a big fan of the offensive coordinator the passing offense should be great but 10- seven feels right for this team especially with a defense at the much harder harder schedule and I'm not sure it's going to meld as quickly as people want and my best bet for the Best Bet for 2024 Houston Texans Houston Texans isn't with the over or under cuz again I'm not too confident they go over that n and a half number but even with 10 and seven as I told you I've done a bunch of AFC teams already we have four this is now Houston would make the fifth team with 10 wins or more and we still have seven more teams to go I think I like Houston to miss the playoffs at plus 164 again I'm not sure they get to 10 wins and I'm pretty confident that these other AFC uh these other AFC teams do and so for Houston to make the playoffs they got to tie or beat some of those teams and I think it's a pretty even split whether they do or Miss make or miss this playoff run here so at plus 164 I'll take the no Houston misses the playoffs and builds to year three with CJ strout but that's all I got for the Texans today tomorrow it's the Jacksonville Jaguars again like And subscribe if you enjoy these videos and follow me if you like sport