LSU vs. USC PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS | 2024 SEC Football

[Music] a pivotal year three for Brian Kelly gets underway as the LSU Tigers travel to Sin City to take on linkoln Riley and Southern Cal hello everyone I'm Chris Phillips of SEC unfiltered I'm joined by Dave shoemate appreciate each and every single one of you tuning in make sure you like subscribe turn notifications check us out via podcast wherever you get podcast you can also find us across all social media platforms as well as our website sec unfiltered.com we're brought to you by our friends over at mybookie guys go to mybookie.ag use promo code SECU at sign up to receive a special welcome offer on your first deposit again guys it's mybookie.ag promo code SECU get your special welcome offer today the LSU Tigers in USC set to do battle in Las Vegas we're previewing predicting and breaking down everything you need to know for this massive nonconference matchup and I'm joined my good friend helping me do so do so Dave shoemate Dave what's going on my man I appreciate you taking the time shoot mean you were talking about it before we hit the record button man it's one of those games I think Sunday night I mean this feels like it's LSU night on opening weekend now Labor Day I mean it hadn't been good but I mean the last two nights this would be three years in a row they've opened up in this game between the back-to-back games against Florida State and obviously uh in Vegas against USC but I think it's a game everybody's looking forward to big game for uh both teams rolling into this kind of a tone Setter to uh USC getting into the new Big 10 they got a lot of big games I me they finish up with Notre Dame open up with LSU they got the big 10 in between that LSU again Brian Kelly says judge him on year three traditionally his teams at Cincinnati Notre Dame take that next step nationally uh in year three how do how do we say people have their question marks on the defense new defensive staff I think it can only improve offense you could probably only go backwards a little bit not necessarily mean you're gonna be a bad unit but I mean come on was an explosive one of the better offenses in my lifetime last year but this is a big game tone Setter me and you talked about it and you had Blake rafino from ru serus Sports on the show preview in LSU I think this is the must-win game for LSU like I mean maybe I'm wrong I know they lost to I know they lost to Florida state two years ago and still won the SEC West we don't divisions anymore so that's not possible but like if they lose this I mean where does that send them I don't they go into a spiral because you still have such a long season 12 team playoffs it would be interesting though like what is the psyche of this team if they come out week one and drop this uh game to a USC team that's going to be Hungary as well and they have a new defensive coordinator so there's a lot of question marks a lot of storylines rolling into this that I think anybody that's telling you they know exactly how this is going to go down this game on Sunday I think's lying so it'll be fun I think it's the most intriguing game this one and the Florida Miami one I think uh are the top of the menu for me Dave certainly to your point one of the most intriguing games of week one again Sunday September the 1st at 7:30 p.m. Eastern again this game being televised on ABC they'll be out in Las Vegas Nevada at Allegiance stadium and we talked about this Dave off the air before we went live LSU just a couple days ago was right around a touchdown favorite six and a half you look at the spread today the day we're recording this day Thursday August the 22nd who knows it may continue to move LSU has come down to a four and a half Point favorite in this game over under set at 63 and a half so really really interesting the money is pouring in on USC Series history it's tied 1-1 Dave the last meeting 1984 LSU won 23-3 so been quite a while since the two teams played as we break down us of the Big 10 now it's funny Dave when I was doing my research and putting my notes together I had to remind myself uh I was like USC of the Pack 12 and I'm like wait a minute we don't have a Pack 12 anymore so USC of the Big 10 that might get some taken used to either way though eight and five five and4 a season ago was a very upand Down Season the defense was atrocious uh offensively with Caleb Williams they were really good but down the stretch stubbed their toe which has brought some pressure on their head coach Lincoln Riley seven star returned from a season to go three on offense four on defense Dave we saw it I believe it was about a week ago or so Miller Moss officially named qb1 during fall Camp which is what we all expected but officially that holiday game Holiday Bowl game against Louisville yeah I think kind of solidified himself as he's their dude yeah 372 yards and six touchdowns in that bowl game against Louisville to your point uh this was a sneaky pickup by the way Dave for USC they picked up Mississippi State transfer Woody marks who's taken over at rb1 one of the most well-rounded backs in college football they've got Zachariah Branch who's their top threat on the outside at wide receiver he returns and they've got three seniors anchoring the offensive line so it's a Lincoln Riley football team Dave offensively you expect them to be elite questions on defense Right deont deanton Lynn takes over on the defensive side as defensive coordinator bear Alexander's back up front to Anchor the middle you got veteran at linebacker a pair of seniors led by Mason Cobb Jaylen Smith back as their top corner and gu and Dave with that being said again a massive massive year for Lincoln Riley huge tone Setter type of ball game to your point similar to Florida Miami the loser of this game the losing head coach is going to be very uncomfortable so when you look at this USC team Dave specifically what do you see and how big of a year do you how big of a season opener I should say do you think this is for Lincoln Riley and his tenure there out in La yeah I don't think it's a must-win for Lincoln Riley I do think there would be some issues if they went out here and just got embarrassed by LSU because I think most college football media people that are respectful I think most USC fans would be like look we know LSU's good we know they come from the SEC but like we know they have their own question mark too this team shouldn't go handle us I think that's where it would get sticky for Lincoln Riley I think people would be disappointed in a loss but it's not like a must-win where it kind of does [ __ ] a lose or leave town a little little bit for Mario chrisal probably not Mario chrisal but definitely Billy Napier so from that standpoint it's a little different than Florida Miami but us see what initially jumps out is really not a lot of proven production at the skill Spots I'm talking about really the running back receiver spots outside of Woody marks I saw Woody Marx has doubl the amount of touchdowns in the rest of the running back room you have I mean the rest of the running back I mean we all remember Woody marks from Mississppi state but they Quinton Joiner amaran Peterson and freshman Brian Jackson they signed but Woody marks is what I think 22 touchdowns I was looking it up that's more than double the other three guys combined and then we know about Zachariah Branch at the receiver spot but a lot of his Productions been done on special teams in the P return kickoff return game what does he look like in his designated designated position at the wide receiver spot so that's another one Duce Robinson could step up for him they got Auburn transfer Jay fair who's coming over so there's there's some unknown there's talent highend talent for sure it's just an unknown not ready to say it's a weakness but it's definitely an unknown they do have a lot of guys back on offensive on the offensive line I shouldn't say lie but they have some contributors back I think their guy from from looking at some interviews reading up on their fall Camp moving over to Center I think Jonah monam red Sher senior will be there I think they got two to three starters returning but a lot of the guys that are gonna play I think are just reserves from last year that had been in the program and to be fair their offensive line coach Josh Hinson I think one of the best out there he was at Oklahoma State for a very long time Jimbo fiser hired him he left Jimbo to go be with Lincoln Riley at USC when Lincoln riy left Norman I think that's where A&M started to have their hiccups a little bit when Steve doio got there I think you'd have to really dig deep but Josh Hinson was a key C to that A&M offensive staff offensive line room so he was a lost A&M I think he gets the offensive line working well they'll be fine offensively I think us see I I I think they'll be fine offensively defensively it just seems like Deontay Lynn likes versatile bodies I don't really know if they have that this year uh I think they're GNA they're the foundation of the defense it sounds like is on that back end they like those back end guys Jobe coventon Jaylen Smith Kamari Ramsey key Arnold guys like that John Humphrey I think the front sev's a little outside of bear Alexander a little bit of a question mark undersized bodies he doesn't like a guy I did hear though was a first team all Pat 12 selection last year at Oregon state that transferred in the inside backer spot keep an eye on him I told it's Easton Massa canaras Arnold uh that's a tongue twister Easton masaran Arnold is the guy he was a first team Pack 12 guy for Oregon State last year transferred to USC so he's an impact guy it's produced at this level so he's a guy I would expect I'm really interested to see this match up between Garrett nus Meer and his receivers against this USC secondary can USC get any kind of pass rush without bringing any extra guys just a lot of question marks I mean it's it's gonna be fun it's gonna be fun across the board how does Blake Baker scheme up Lincoln Riley and then with this much time this much time to prepare in the off season and then how does the Anton Lyn attack um Cortez hton and Joe Sloan the new the two new OC there's a lot of new coordinators in this game Dave LSU is looking for their first win in a season opener since 2019 and and to your point Dave when you talk about this game and you break it down I think we have to start on the defensive side for both sides by the way USC was abysmal LSU was maybe worse than abysmal I I mean some of the worst defenses in college football season ago my biggest question Dave but we got a pair of new defensive coordinators right Blake Baker at LSU deont de I cannot say his name De Lynn that you mentioned over at USC these two guys doing it out I just wonder which defense has made bigger strides from the end of last season to the season over that that that's my question like chis what you tell what did you mention the over under was in this 60 63 and a half and I don't know were expecting points and I think realistic people are like dude people both teams are going to get theirs you're right I think you 100% hit hammer on the head there CP which team is taking those steps from Spring to the fall and throughout fall camp and improved again you don't have to be the still curtain Steeler defense I don't think anybody's expecting any of these but who can limit the explosive plays probably win the turnover battle they probably give up some yards to get some takeaways so I'm with you who who took that next step from the spring and through fall Camp defensively I'm with you that'll be key Dave it's really it's a question of whose defense has gone from downright terrible to just slightly average that's it I mean really that's the question I mean you know and we talked about and you mentioned you know who needs this game more Brian Kelly or Lincoln Riley and I think they both need it for different reasons maybe um and I would agree and it sound like you said like Brian Kelly I think in LSU they need this one more but I think it's interesting for Lincoln Riley like it it kind of feels like his candles starting to burn out a little bit like I you know it just nobody's questioning what he does with quarterbacks what he does with offense but the guy doesn't give a damn about defense he has not shown he cares about Fielding a competent defense and I just I I don't know man I I feel like Lincoln Riley us thinking about him as like a top tier coach in college football that's kind of starting to fade a little bit would you agree or disagree Chris I would agree this is a stat I got from our CFB Focus 2024 preview I got Mike Watchman who did the Big 10 preview great stat he here he had here on Lincoln Riley's defenses in his career in his Seven Seasons this is Lincoln Riley as a head coach only once as he had a team finished better than 60th in yards per play given up on defense that was his 2020 team like Kyler Murray and then oh no no Jaylen Herz and them no was that Jaylen no it wasn't Jay it was 19 who the 2020 team he had was uh what I forget what team it doesn't matter at that point he's only had one in seven seasons as a head coach where they finished better 60th in yards to be fair to our guy uh deanon Lynn he kind of made his money limiting def explosive plays at us UCLA so I think that's where it kind of is it sounds like Lincoln Riley kind of hit him in the offseason like yeah like we can go rack up maybe nine 10 wins with a bowl game every year but like if we really want to go compete for what they hired me for and what this program at USC expects national titles we have to go actually give a crap recruiting Personnel wise and schematically on defense I mean the out Grinch project just epically failed going back from his Oklahoma days and when he brought him to La Dave it's a pair of New Look offenses with Miller Moss taking over his qb1 out in LA but I want to focus on LSU because I think that's one of the biggest storylines of this game and certainly this season a a lot of LSU's ceiling and their college football playoff hopes Dave are tied to Garrett nus and what do you get out of him he's not gonna be Jaden Daniels he's and he doesn't need to be and you don't want him to be you don't want your quarterback to have to rush for a thousand yards and be Superman every week but there's been a lot of mixed opinions I feel like Dave on gabr NM this off season from the standpoint of looked great in that bowl game against Wisconsin led to comeback but at times I feel like he's been a little bit inconsistent maybe a little bit turnover happy you know is they call him the the cinjun Brett Favre I believe so he's not afraid to fit the ball in tight Windows you know you got to replace Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr and you know we've talked a lot about Kiron Lacy and how good he can be at wide receiver one and obviously CJ Daniels the the Liberty transfer and you've got other guys on the outside as well Caleb Jackson the running back who they're really really excited about all that being said Dave with all that and the best by the way the best offensive line probably in college football that's really where it starts for them but with all that being said Dave it's one thing to have these really talented individual pieces but the question I've been asking all offseason how can they be better off L like realistically you lost the Heisman Trophy winner you lost two first round wide outs how can it be better I'm really really curious to see just you know and and different can still be really really good but especially if the defense in this game one Dave has not taken the step forward if we look at and say man it really is just a Personnel issue like personnel's lacking we know the issues at defensive tackle so if the offense has got to do what they did last year and and play Super her hero and carry the load is Garrett nus and the crew up the task that's what I really want to see from LSU yeah I mean we heard Brian Kelly you were there at media days in Dallas he's talking they're G be a more balanced team this year they weren't that last year it was just a back and forth YMCA basketball game you see up there people up and down the floor but balance-wise I think they're G to try this year and I don't think this is any secret they're gonna try to just establish the run because again like you said I think they have the best probably not at each position especially the tackle spots they definitely do but best starting five heading in to the SEC play into probably the country on the off line front they have two really good running backs Josh Williams former walk and they put on SC Mr consistent I think Caleb Jackson's actually the dude in that room who may take over rb1 by after a couple games they they've been talking about Caleb Jackson you know Blake and others we talk like he's got some Leonard forette in him I mean those type of comps so yeah he's I think he's a beast um I think they're going to lean on that a little bit and I think they're going to throw off play action a little bit give some SA throws I think this is where Mason Taylor comes back in a little bit for we all remember him as freshman year kind of took a step not actually he didn't they just didn't utilize him in the scheme as much I mean you had Brian Thomas Jr uh btj and then you had Malik neighbors so I get it but I think this year they're gonna kind of get us into a rhythm um make USC make tackles in the open field a little bit I think they're gonna try to control that clock getting third and manageable situations keep USC's offense off the field and weirdly probably keep their defense off the field a little bit uh but I think defensively they're going to be aggressive this year and I think it's a phenomenal strategy again I I've say it all the time I think Blake Baker saved Brian Kelly from going into an early retirement I don't think they were ever gonna fire him because Scott Woodward the ad so invested in him but I think it could have forced him into an early retirement if they didn't get that defensive coordinator and defensive line coach spot right with Bo Davis I think they did we've mentioned it all the time that Personnel isn't there to compete for a championship this year I could be wrong I just don't think it is but I think scheme-wise they're give up explosives but I think they're also going to be better in the turnover uh March as well because I think they're going to get teams in third and long situations with their aggressive style which is going to force quarterbacks into bad plays and like I mentioned USC is gonna get there as offensively LSU is gonna get there as offensively who can limit the explosive plays and force more turnovers I think it's going to come down to what quarterback makes that big mistake late Dave you mentioned the aggressiveness on defense probably one of the most puzzling things last year to Matt house was the the utilization of Harold Perkins Jr what do you expect to see from him and what are you most excited to see because again I think that's the guy on LSU's defense we're all gonna be watching essentially on every single play to see like all right how is Blake Baker using him and getting him back that All-American form yeah I think Matt house last year some I mean they would give up big explosive plays too last year but a lot of it was like death by thousand paper cut me they just give up 10 to 12 chunk yards and it would just be like H five plays touchdown like it was just like this guy's not even he's not even trying to force turnovers they're just kind of sitting back and taking it um I think you're right Harold Perkins one of those impact players in college foot this year where I think everybody it's his third year we're all sitting there kind like all right we got Blake Baker coming in it's his position coach and for LSU fans to get fired up remember demone Clark because Blake Baker was the inside backers coach in 2021 Edward runs last year and developed Deon Clark into a really good player he's had a decent pretty solid career for the Dallas Cowboys I bet if he can kind of get the most out of Deone Clark I no telling what he can get with Harold Perkins so it'll be interesting you're right though how comfortable does Harold Perkins look inside the box it's a great first test linoln riy and them are going to throw so much at him they've had so long to prepare and then also where they utilize Harold Perkins on The Edge when they let him come after and try to get after Miller Moss so I'm I'm excited from that and I don't think it'll be fair for everyone to just judge Harold Perkins just off this one game say he does struggle a little bit in this let's give him through the season and see how they adapt to him how he gets more comfortable playing within Baker scheme I think they're going to let I think they're going to turn him loose just because I think they're going to be more aggressive this year which I do agree with yeah Dave to your point a game of I'll meet you at the quarterback featuring Harold Perkins is probably the way he should operate turn him loose and see what happens see how many times he can get to Miller mall but certainly excited to watch him and that defense finally Dave I mean I you know we mentioned who's this game more important for the importance for LSU and Brian Kelly to me this is a massive tone setter I mean because LSU is one of those places Dave and we could make the short list there's probably I don't know 15 20 programs that probably think this way should they all think this way maybe maybe not but LSU is a place you know this Dave it's gonna be college football player a bust every year in Baton Rouge and if you're not getting to the playoff your seat's going to be warming up yearby year right they're I think I even heard somebody say that 10- win Seasons get you fired at LSU which is kind of crazy like the expect this will be his third year without making the playoff and to be fair his first two years were four team playoffs but I think a lot of people look at last year's team made it last year we won 10 games but like if we just were a top 50 defense we didn't have to be great we probably win the west and have a chance to beat George in the SEC Championship game and we're in the four te playoff so you're right I feel like they left if you really ask LSU fans 10 and three good season but I feel like they're like yeah we got a high Trophy winner we won 10 games it was fun to watch but man we left some meat on the boat yeah so to that point Dave I I just think that you know I don't see LSU making and I don't want to like not not say throw the season away but I I I don't want to pronounce them dead if they lose one game but yeah to your you know if you don't win this game how do you bounce back from that like are you really going to be able to navigate this SEC schedule at 10 and two if you're not good enough to beat USC are you G to be good enough to beat Old Miss and to be Old Miss a must win that I mean isn't a must wiwin if they win this that would be I mean you would probably agree I mean I think they got out of the bigger games left they would I think they got UCLA and South Carolina right after this before Old Miss which that'd be interesting at that point how much momentum does that decrease at this point if they lose this game uh but no that'll be it yeah you're right it's a massive game massive game for both teams you're right but Brian Kelly being quoted judge me on year three will put people's antennas on check yeah and year three is the year where again fairly or unfairly especially when you say judge me on year three but it's kind of like okay this is who you are right like this is your identity this gives us a pretty good idea of what we got I think it's just massive for LSU to get off on the right foot because if they don't we've mentioned this Dave if they don't it's gonna be ugly on the bou it's just gonna be ugly so that being said Dave let's move into our predictions for this game I will start here I think this is going to be a game Dave do I think both defenses are really just I'll stick with LSU first do I think they're going to be better on defense under Blake Baker yes number one they can't be worse than they were last year and I believe in Blake Baker as a DC and you know take fall Camp reports with a grain of salt but they're really excited by what they're seeing and with you know with what Harold Perkins Jr's doing and again I think take it with a grain of salt Dave we know the Personnel issues like they're very weak on the interior of the defensive line there's still a lot of questions all across that defense and again they were as bad as they were and lost some of their top contributors to the NFL draft or graduation so like you lose guys from that defense right so how much better could you get so but I think they'll be slightly better I think the defense from a culture standpoint you know pursuing the football the effort they play with I think that's going to be noticeable in game one Blake Baker's much more of a players guy than Matt house yeah I agree with that think I think yeah I think you're going to see that his guys are willing to go get that that extra that extra mile fight for that extra inch what have you um offensively the way I look at LSU Dave little bit better defensively maybe a slight step back offensively because how could you not so what does it all equate to USC again this is a game Dave of defense is optional I I just I don't see in the first game of this year all right well we hired new D coordinator so we have it all figured out no I think it's going to be a lot of points I think it's going to be up and down the field um I do think we're going to see Garrett nus I'm really intrigued to see what's the stat line like for him is it is it three touchdowns one pick is it can he play a clean game is it two and two is it four- two like what does that look like you mentioned the Run game I think they're going to be a lot more balanc I think it's going to be a lot of Caleb Jackson but I just I don't see anybody slowing down anybody for the most part Dave I love the over in this game I feel like it's just kind of one of the don't overthink this thing it's it's going to be a lot of offense um but I think LSU in a musthave game and I don't trust Lincoln Riley I flat out just don't trust Lincoln Riley and I think believe it or not I trust Garrett nus a little bit more I think LSU wins this game Dave believe it or not I think it's a late defensive stop a turnover kind of just like an ironic fitting right to the way you win the ball game I've got LSU winning this one give me the Tigers 38 USC 35 so in this scenario USC would actually cover right that spread coming down like you mentioned coin flip I just think LSU has to have it for so many different reasons Brian Kelly year three you need to get the monkey off your back of you haven't won a season opener since 2019 I think LSU breaks through have a hot day offensively and again they get one key stop they need 38 to35 LSU win yeah uh the feel I get with this game again LSU I like the receivers I don't know if there's a real dude in this unit maybe some people may kill me with that because KY La we we've seen it through spring games through practices it just feels like we've seen that for the last two years I think it was like the L game spr MVP a couple years ago this this past year but we had seen that seen it translated on the field I think Brian Kelly uh Joe Sloan Cortez hton the two co- I think they know hey as long as we don't go turn the football over I think we can kind of go play within our own box if that makes sense and move the ball in these guys I talk about explosive plays limited I think you're going to see a lot of explosive plays in The Run game through LSU more so that you may see through the air now there may be a lot of yards after the catch with like Mason Taylor hitting him eight yards down the field USC's missing a bunch of tackles but I think deanton limb coming over from U UCLA he's a versatile guy I think outside be Alexander he's probably not real fired up about the body type Personnel in this defensive front um so I think LSU is going to lean on that and I think they're going to throw off play action and get Mason Taylor involved I think it's a big day on the ground for LSU led by Caleb Jackson and the duo of him Caleb Jackson and Josh Williams I think they lean on that nus Mar is a big day with Mason Taylor I think defensively eyes need to be on guys like Sage Ryan and Ashton stamps on in the back field or sorry in the back I should say on the back end feel like they've gotten a little better I'm excited to see Blake Baker then be aggressive I think they're going to give up their chunk plays a little bit maybe it's through penalties at times some pass interferences that extends drives uh for USC here but I'm with you I think it's kind of back and forth uh I think Hsu tries to shorten the game a little bit in the second half and look like hey we're just gonna we're gonna go with our Bell Cal just combo right here Caleb Jackson Josh Williams let's just lean on them I'm with you I think LSU gets a late score uh something like an eight nine 10 play Drive milking it to go up 3831 and I'm with you I think LSU gets a big stop that they were missing last year at times with a big interception maybe someone Sage Ryan like I said stamp somebody like that maybe a major Burns if the star position Nichols spot comes in and gets a big play but I'm with you that sounds about right so I'm gonna go final score 3831 close one LSU's rushing game and Caleb Jackson Mason Taylor welcome back baby we didn't see you a lot in 2023 we saw you in 2022 I think he's a good safety valve for Garrett NM to keep him from stretching the field turnover it a little bit so I think I like 3831 um LSU in a close game I'm with you though on the def last the late defensive stop I it just feels like the ironic ending to the game right needs a stop defensively and they get it which to your point if if in closing if Blake Baker Dave I love the way you put that if the only thing Blake Baker does this year for the LSU defense is help them get a few stops they didn't get last year they need a few extra possessions LSU's in the playoff I I mean that's that's all he needs to do they they have to be great but when you need them can you come up big that's that's literally it CU correct I think most realistic LSU fans like yeah we're GNA take our lumps defensively we don't think we're gonna be a total nday defense but like gosh if you can just make some plays at times and like get a big stop or a big turnover and you're right I think it's just going to be ironic I think that's the way it's gonna end LSU USC set to do battle in Las Vegas guys let us know what are your thoughts what's your breakdown what are your predictions how do you see this one playing out when LSU and USC meet in the season opener guys that's going to do all for us appreciate each and every single one of you tuning in make sure you like subscribe turn notifications check us out via podcast wherever you get your podcast you can also find us across all social media platforms as well as our website SEC unfiltered.com for Dave shoemate I'm Chris Phillips appreciate each and every single one of you tuning in and we'll catch you on the other side [Music]