here are three early bets for week one of college football first up North Carolina should not be an underdog against Minnesota and here's why North Carolina has moved on from Drake May Max Johnson comes in transferring in from Texas A&M and the few starts that he had for the aies last season he was a decent passer had an 80.6 PFF passing grade but the real focus of the North Carolina offense is going to be on running the football last season they were 13th in EPA per rush because they have a great running back and Omarian Hampton who comes back after averaging 5.9 yards per carry they're going to have a great match up against Minnesota's front 7 that does return about everybody but they struggle to defend the run last season we're 99th in EPA per Rush allowed Minnesota brings in a new quarterback in Max brosmer from New Hampshire but even at the FCS level he kind of struggled he only had a PFF passing rate of 79.3 and the focus on the Minnesota offense quite frankly is running the football they ran the ball on over 60% of their offensive plays because they have a great running back and Darius Taylor but Darius Taylor was hampered in practice with a leg injury so either he's not going to play in this game because he's listen as questionable or he's not going to be 100% And the drop off between him and the backup running backs is very very significant so I think North Carolina is really well positioned here in this first game they'll have a great Advantage with their run game so I like the value on them at plus three next up Boise State Should Hammer Georgia Southern and here's why Spencer Danielson made a pretty bold decision in opting to start red shirt sophomore Maddox Madson a quarterback over their highly touted transfer Malachi Nelson from USC but the reality is is that the Boise State offense is going to be centered around their run game they ran the ball on close to 60% of their offensive plays because they have an amazing running back in Ashton Jey last season he was a fourth team All-American averaged 6.1 yards per carry and had a 93.5 PFF rushing grade which was the fifth best Mark in college football Boise State returns a lot of experience across their offensive line after rank making 14th in offensive line yards so they should have a really good matchup here against Georgia Southern that does return everybody in their front seven but was 118th in EPA per Rush allowed last season the Georgia Southern offense is likely going to struggle early on here Davis Brin has moved on which means the backup quarterback last year JC French takes over he only attempted 16 passes and if you know anything about Klay hton his offenses are incredibly pass heavy so a new quarterback going up against a Boise State Defense that's returning all 11 star ERS is really not that good of a matchup so I really like the value here on Boise State at minus 122 on the road next up James Madison is undervalued against Charlotte in their opening game and here's why it's a new era for James Madison as Bob chzn comes over from Holy Cross he brought over his offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy as well which means that James Madison is transitioning from a pass heavy attack to a run heavy team to be a good run heavy team you got to go out and you got to get a good running back and James Madison did that bringing in AO a die from North Texas last season he became the starter for the Mean Green in week six and he never looked back he averaged 7.1 yards per car and had a PFF rushing grade of 88.8 James Madison has a lot of experience across their offensive line through guys coming back and guys coming through the transfer portal and they'll have a really good match up against Charlotte here in this first game who was a very average Rush defense last season but got completely gutted in their front seven they lost their top two linebackers and six of their top eight tacklers so James Madison should be able to run the ball with a lot of success Charlotte's offense was terrible last season they were 130th in offensive success rate and 128th and finishing drives they brought in a lot of transfers on the offensive side of the ball including Max Brown at quarterback the one start that he's had in college football at Florida he was awful he went nine of 17 for 86 yards and had five turnover worthy plays against Florida State last season so with a lot of new faces on the offensive side of the ball and the defensive side of the ball I think Charlotte's really going to struggle early on here they may get better towards the end of the season but definitely going up in this first game against a really good Rush offense like James Madison I think they're going to struggle so I like the value on James Madison at minus 6 and a half