uh put on your calendars right now let's go to uh Trump trump is leading in a New York Times Sienna poll this is interesting this has got to be freaked out I don't know how much the Democrats are really saying that this sucks for them you know like out loud I mean I've seen a little bit but this is bad news okay let me just put this in in perspective uh the polls skew in favor when Trump's on they skew in favor of his opponent there's a I think a very obvious reason why this happens right um if you're a a woman a Suburban woman especially right you're not likely to tell people you support Trump but we know some do right now that's a that's an area that's a demographic that uh Biden and Kamala have done well with okay but there's a lot of support in those Suburban households even with women and they aren't going to go talk about that at the restaurant with their friends they're not going to talk about it at Starbucks they're not going to talk about it at the gym they're going to not even maybe talk to a poller and even if poller calls are probably not going to take that poll but when it comes to a secret ballot on Election Day or before they're still going to vote for Trump and so I think that's one of the big reasons because that's a big demographic when it comes to polls right we're talking about women that are um I would say probably 30 and above right they're just not going to give that opinion out there now I still think by all means I think that Kamal genuinely is leading that demographic I just don't think it's captured in the polling data when you look at the cross Taps so the fact that Trump is beating I know it's in the margin eror but she's he's beating uh Camala what was this two points let's go back let's go to this poll here real quick I'm pretty sure it was two points um oh I should have had this queued up and ready to go um you should you should take some pointers from me I've had this ready uh oh did you have it ready already is it on the screen I'm looking at my screen yeah this one by one point I was thinking it was but I wasn't certain and then they actually ask with third party can and this is actually a more honest way to do it so Dawson is this on here it's the second one down if if the 20124 election were held the day who would you vote for if the candidates were so this is uh 47 to 45 Trump 47% Cala 45% RFK is .5% which makes me believe and I'd love to see a poll before this that uh there's been movement in that support category Jill Stein at 1% Colonel West at 0.5 sorry that's under 0.5 uh Chase Oliver at 2% um he's not getting 2% it's what it's saying that's a lot well that could be and but the way that's phrased is Chase Oliver the libertarian Party candidate so that's how it's read to them right mhm so Trump has a two-point um marginal uh uh lead yeah it's right there on the screen okay now Dawson Point go to the age demo you see where that's at uh scroll down let's go to the bottom where the all the candids are CU I think that's the more honest way to do it all the way at the bottom no no no I'm sorry it was that next category you were on it before yeah right there okay um so yeah you see an age now look here 18 to 29 uh Cala is winning 50 to 40 over Trump when you go to 30 to 44 category kamala's winning 48 to 40 it's not until you get the 65 plus where Trump takes a lead a six-point lead Kamala 45 and Trump 51% now I got a question for you guys at home because I'd be very curious about your opinion especially if if and my my buddy Andy parish is still in the comment section um this is what national polling is suggesting no one's shocked by that that kamal's leading in the younger vote and then Trump's leading in the older vote okay now let's go to this ksdp survey USA poll we talked about this last week and we look at the cross tabs and Dawson what I want you to do is we're going to go to the Cross tab um it's going to be uh page age uh it's going to be it's going to be labeled number three the first one under number three okay uhuh all right yeah perfect God you are good at this thank you all right so uh Trump is down five points to Kamal now obviously the headline was he cut the lead that she had in half when they first did their poll with Kamala versus Trump after the announcement Kamala is leading Trump by 10 points now now she's leading Trump 48 to 43 Five Points neither one has 50% they don't list the other candidates on the ballot which honestly you should in Minnesota because there will be a ton of candidates on the bout including Shiva right y you want to know what that Shiva segment is the other is 4% undecided 5% here's what's interesting and this is what I don't have an answer to I'd love to hear what you guys think but I got some speculation when you look at the cross tabs on age 18 to 34 year olds Trump is winning 53% to 37% now this isn't the only poll I've seen this in every ksdp USA poll has shown this then you get to the 65 plus and kamal's got a massive lead so it's the inverse of what the national poll is showing I've just got to be honest with you I'm a little puzzled by it is Minnesota really that different I'm watching these uh young boys uh Middle School age at the um bus stop the other day in my neighborhood and one of the kids is wearing a trump shirt it's like Trump trump 224 it's the infamous and you know getting shot you know nice yeah how old was this kid middle school so sixth seventh eighth grade so he didn't buy it for himself his parents are correct yeah his parents but I mean I don't think his parents are overtly political the idea is he's going to school probably thinking I'm pretty cool wearing the shirt and I think we're learning that younger boys are tending more uh Trump now that's much younger than the 18 to 34 year-old cat atory but is there something in Minnesota where it's cooler for younger people to like Trump I don't know you guys are actually in this category I'm I'm in a category that's going Kamala you know maybe it's the lockdowns anybody that had a a Democrat Governor during co uh maybe the young people are the ones who were especially fed up with with the stuff because I mean the old people were kind of fallen for it they they still watch the media they were scared you know older people are afraid of death and whatnot so maybe the younger people are the ones who were not buying it and so I could see that being one of the contributing reasons as to why young people are you know at least conservative in Minnesota that's a really interesting Theory and plus they they were not getting vaccinated they were getting like the lowest rates of vaccination too right that's a good theory and it'd be interesting because you could do polls in all the lockdown States I'm actually I'm actually really curious because I'm looking at so I'm looking at this poll right and the thing is 18 to 34 is the range yeah that that's that am I crazy or is that bigger than 35 to 49 and then 50 to 64 why is the AG range so big well I mean it's all arbitrary but when you look at the Sienna poll um they go 18 to 29 and then 30 to 44 oh so okay so so unless in unless 30 to 34 year olds are predominantly Trump which I'm guessing isn't the case it still shows that the age group even when you kind of piece the two together on the New York Times Sienna poll that that is the inverse of the kst people that's a really interesting Theory I hadn't thought of that one it's it's interesting to me that I'm like halfway I'm in the middle of that age range but so many that's like so many more people it feels like in that age range I wonder why KSTP does it that way that's weird it's I mean once again it's just arbitrary right I mean it's a key demo for like advertising so you know well okay yeah that's true but it's got like almost double the amount of people or double the amount of age range as the well not more than 65 plus that goes all the way up to 100 and yeah it sure does 100 with people in the cemetery too right you know anything about voting now you can do it after you've died so yeah by the way 65 plus the largest voting block too right so um which is really key uh um polls are the better they are more scientific the more they do here's another theory I have I'd love to know um more in particular the methodology in the New York Times Sienna poll which is very credible poll once again it is National so take it for what it's worth it doesn't mean he's wi all the Battleground States look like they're tied right now they're all in Virtual tie which makes me think that Trump's actually winning and by the way the most recent polls are going more Trump so it looks like the bump's gone so um the um so the interesting thing here is um I lost my train of thought here this is the problem I have is I always Sidetrack when I'm talking look at the graic use the graphic 18 to 34 year olds crap I was going somewhere with that who gives a crap uh anyhow the idea is Trump um is doing very good on a national poll trending in the right direction with the Battleground States is really what I mean really in many ways Pennsylvania and Georgia What's going to make this election right so I'm just curious oh that's where I was going with it um the other so Sienna pole is doing actual phone conversation interviews does survey USA I didn't see in the methodology in survey USA if they're using the uh like an online I've done this actually I've got a text and then I click on it and I'm like what the hell do the poll right I'm I'm not your average voter I'm more political right so that's going to get more young people right they're not going to want to talk to some do you guys know this young people like talking on the phone there the texting cult you guys know this briy you know that you guys just like the text so anyhow that that could be a big difference right so if that's the difference this is an interesting thing if Sienna pole which we know their methodology is only that they call and Survey USA is getting different data because they're actually allowing that well then my question is are the or is the lead that Trump has much larger than the polls are showing because they're not using that methodology seems like it could be a Monumental difference anyhow that's all I know that's as far as I can get to I'm going to look more into it but it's a very interesting question something that we noticed in the cross tabs um I in my opinion if if the election was fair of course Trump's going to win by a pretty big margin you know not not a landslide I'm not win if it's not fair huh Trump can only win if it's not fair that's not what he said yeah I said the opposite I said sorry Trump can only lose if it's not fair yeah I mean for the most part we'll see how this debate ends up going tonight because I think that you know she she stands for absolutely nothing Trump has such momentum uh you know without the propaganda and the media and everything it wouldn't even be close if the media treated Trump you know half as Fair as they treat Cala right if it was 50/50 if the me if the media was neutral wouldn't even be close so I mean age yeah I I think that there there's you know Cala got some momentum with with the convention with the nomination all that but that momentum is dead and uh she's only going down from here so yeah I think that I think that Trump's going to win unless unless uh things get unless things end up like 2020 before you know so this is my thinking on the debate tonight by the way if you guys want to go watch the debate with some good Patriots go to quinny's Pub and Grill that's in mamei it's right on the corner 694 in Sentry so just get off on the centry Avenue exit on 694 go one block north and you'll be at quy's pupp GRS in the little strip mall um used to be Jeth rolls good Patriot Janice quinland runs that she's actually doing the new part of her bar it's called Q Pub um so you watch it with a bunch bunch of Patriots so my thinking tonight Jesse you tell me if I'm wrong in this but I think honestly the person that really has to perform tonight is Cala because people don't know where she stands on it she's got this inflated support mhm she she I mean like do you really believe unless Trump is just an okay which I'm pretty sure he's going to be subdued he was against Hillary Clinton unless he's an complete ass I don't think a lot of people are going to learn something new about Trump that they don't already know like that guy is known everyone knows about Trump what they don't know is Kamala Harris and so the pressure is really on her and if she shows up the bumbling idiot that she really seems to be she's not going to look very well I don't think I don't think she's going to look good at all I mean she's going to have her memorized answers because she's been hiding like Joe Biden in the hotel you know six days of non-stop preparation you know because she can't be expected to be an actual leader she couldn't be expected to think off the top of her head you know as if uh a president would have to do in the job uh so she's obviously been memorizing things but I mean honestly she's she's playing grab ass with a trump impersonator is what she's doing you know I don't know if that's the way to go about things to bring in a trump impersonator a guy wearing a bunch of makeup and doing a funny hair and you know she thinks that's what's going to help her you can't predict for what Trump is going to be like and you know I I think there's going to be a lot of interesting things I'm hoping that we we'll see how far Trump goes I'm hoping he brings up Willie Brown I'm hoping he I'm hoping he really pushes you know if this is the only debate we're going to get Willie Brown right you know there's plenty that needs to be said here and I think that if he just uh you know keeps them keeps focused on the message at hand and uh you know he can basically just say this woman had 28% approval rating in our country nobody respected her and it's only until the media has been propagandizing her that everybody has all of a sudden gained this new respect for her she'd be the worst president in history look at her record explain everything and uh yeah it should be no problem because Camala Harris is a complete idiot