Ohio State football at Purdue: Score predictions for Buckeyes' return to unfriendly confines

and we're back on Buckeye talk and it's time for our game picks Ohio State playing Purdue at Purdue at 12:00 noon on peacock not on normal television first time in a while I think since the 90s since Ohio State hasn't been on cable television the game will be on peacock streaming Andrew will'll start with you the line right now is Ohio State is favored by 19 with the over under being 50 and a half Mr Gillis what's your game pick so I'm G to give my reason in first and then I'm going to give the score at the end because I want no no no give the score first yeah yeah okay uh Ohio State 30 Purdue 21 this game is going to be closer than people want it to be and closer than people think and the reason that I wanted to give My reasonings first was because I didn't want anybody to go and just start freaking out and say that I'm I'm an idiot or something like that which you might say that anyway yeah so there's there's a couple different things that I looked at for this game that really just signal to me that this is a letdown spot uh whatever you want to Value this at you could value it a lot a little or just think it's an interesting footnote obviously it doesn't play well at Ross a stadium but you could again I I just kind of lean footnote I don't really think it's a super big deal but they don't historically play well there and you're going into a game where it's a noon game on the road it's a sleepy start I just I look at you know you heard uh Penn State last week with James Franklin they talked about how they weren't playing music at practice because they had to get ready for the environment of Northwestern like Purdue is closer to Northwestern in terms of environment than it is Camp Randall and then it is Happy Valley and Ohio stadium and all these other great venues like the Notre Dame game was a great venue you hear about players talk all the time I actually kind of like playing on the road because you can feed off of the energy there's not as much energy to feed off of when you're playing a game at Ross stadium in West Lafayette again all due respect to the boiler makers it's just not a house of horror for other teams so I I just I think it's I think it's got all the makings of a sleepy game the weather's not going to be ideal we talked about that you're not going to have a Mecca bua probably that's going to be something you have to work through the Run game has been a problem and if the weather's bad you're gonna have to work through that and let's say they do run the ball really well like both of you guys are kind of saying that they will that also burns the clock a little bit that also lends itself to a closer game because Ohio state has played five games this year and three of these teams have pretty much exclusively came into the game and said we're going to run the ball that's what we're going to do one of them Notre Dame thought that they could run the ball to win the game which they almost did and that was their goal was said we can run to win Indiana and Youngstown State said we're going to run the ball so the game ends as quickly as possible but in those games Ohio state scored 23 35 and 17 points like the score can stay down if if a team is able to even if you don't run the ball super effective effectively the score can stay down you got Penn State next week that's a big let down spot and personally you mentioned the line the line is is 19 this reeks to me like and you know if you're if you're a gambler you know you steer into the stink and this stinks because Ohio state is the fa is the same amount of favorite as they were against Maryland last week it's the same line the line last week against Maryland was anywhere from 19 to 20 and that's what this Purdue line is and the overunderish down from to 50 and a half so basically what is what are they saying that this game is going to be 354 34 17 like that this is kind of what they're predicting they're not saying that Vegas notoriously smart doesn't think that Ohio State's going to walk in there and win 52 to7 like they don't think that this game is going to be that so I'm going to say 30 to 21 I think Purdue is never going to have a chance of winning this game it's going to be a little little bit like the Maryland game where we're just sitting up there going wow Ohio State's really not playing that well what are they you know well Purdue you know they don't have a shot of winning but Ohio State's just not playing their aame they might not even be playing their b game I just think that this is a game where you get through you burn the tape you say we'll never speak of this again now it's time to focus on Penn State and fortunately for a lot of people this game is on peacock so it's kind of like if a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears it does it make a sound it's like if Ohio State plays like crap against Purdue and nobody sees it did anybody really see it like can anybody really talk about it so yeah Ohio State's not going to play that well they're going to win by single digit and we're just basically gonna say wow that was a mess but now it's time to focus on Penn State I can't wait till these streaming numbers come out like next mondayin just so we just so he it can prove you wrong in the nobody saw it conversation because I'm pretty sure I think a lot of people are gonna see this oh Ohio State fans are gonna yeah Ohio State fans are going to do it I just don't think they're going to be happy about it so Andrew taking Purdue plus 19 but the over by literally half a point he's taking the over that's that's flirting with it man I'm going to go Ohio state 38 to9 I think this game might play out very similar to the o to the Ohio State Maryland game except Ohio state is not going to give Purdue an opportunity to be in plus position field position to start the game so they score a touchdown and then maybe Ohio State's defense comes out the second half and isn't sleep walking through the first drive so Maryland gets to go down there and score a touchdown but you take those two two things away Maryland scored three points the rest of the game I think the weather will have a little bit of an impact on Ohio State's ability to be explosive in the past game I think this is a week where Ryan Day might try to force it with the Run game and see if they can get some run some holes open for trayon Henderson and Chip train them and get things going there but I also just think that Ohio State might do do its work early and then try to get out of here so they can put their focus into the Penn State week because I think if they score 28 points in the first half maybe they get 10 in the second half and then they just kind of call it a day from there and run that clock out so they can get to the pen State game so it's a combination of I have only seen this offense score 40 points once and it was against Western Kentucky who is not known for their defense and it's a combination of the weather maybe preventing them from being as explosive as they want to be but then also Ryan Day Justin fry Brian hartlin really trying to get this run game going especially since you've got your lead dog back there in trayon Henderson so that's me taking Ohio State to cover but I'm also taking the under which Ohio state has kind of lived at this season Nathan what's your game score I I really tried to get to an under I couldn't quite get there with this one I'm going 3816 which may mean that you and I are sitting next to each other just waiting to see if Purdue gets kind of a back door cover late in this game there in the fourth quarter I we'll be doing other work too but uh listen I I'm not that worried about Ohio State's history in westl yet there's only two guys on this roster who were around for that game in 2018 it's Matt Jones and Josh Proctor and yeah they play now but they didn't play then and they weren't the reason why that that loss happened and and having some familiarity with the history of that series you know I was covering the other team in 2018 I was around for one of the other losses uh prior to that the one where Ryan carrian kind of came in and it was cases where there were some Ohio State teams that had some some flaws that could be exposed andio and Purdue had the NFL talent to do it it was especially true of 2018 like Ronda Moore was uh just kind of unreal that night there ain't no Ronda Moore on this Purdue roster this year and I think Purdue is a little bit better than its record um but I don't think that it is going to be able to offensively challenge Ohio State like I I I'm seeing too much from this defense and especially relative to what I think Purdue can put on the field in terms of efficiency and in terms of being able to reach and get the kind of explosive plays that it would take now obviously the weather can be an equalizer playing on the road can sometimes be an equalizer there was something special that happened in that stadium in 2018 though that had that superseded football a little bit and that that isn't really on the plate from what anyone can tell this year either so I'm taking 38 to 16 that would be a cover that would be an over and I think it's for Ohio State it's really more about just seeing some fundamental progressions and a step towards being able to do what they did against Notre Dame which is just get through that Penn State game finding a way to win in in some fashion that one is definitely going to be four quarters and tight and uh it's going to take probably their best performance this year so Nathan taking Ohio State to cover plus the over I think we were in that position last week too where our scores were pretty similar and it came down to it literally came down to the last Drive I believe and Nathan ends up getting it and I don't but no I got a sweet sweet push yeah CU we picked it when it was still 20 so 37 I got a sweet sweet push but I did get the under that's true that's true so let's see if Nathan can have a repeat performance of that this week or maybe I will be right or maybe Andrew will be right and we'll be having a very different conversation on the postgame pod because Ohio State only beat Purdue by nine but those are our game picks for Ohio State's context against Purdue on Saturday at noon on peacock