what's up everyone it's col with money vest so we just had the PPI numbers come out earlier today we did see a little bit of a pullback in the market so if you come take a look at qqq's right now we did see a initial drop in uh the NASDAQ here still up 17 basis points right now but the initial reaction was a little bit lower very similar to what we witnessed yesterday for those CPI numbers um and volatility here on the 5 minute chart you'll notice also did increase right so it went from about 17 a half back up to as much as 17.8 so not a huge increase but we are starting to see that roll over once again similar to what we witnessed yesterday for those CPI numbers so good morning everyone thank you so much for joining share this live stream with other members Traders investors your friends family everybody who wants to join in for this Market open live stream we got about 44 minutes until Market opens and we're going to take a look at those numbers together so this was the report that came out earlier today so0 2% month over month for PPI um versus the consensus of 2% so in line with expectations and year of year coming in at 1.7% which which was also a little bit better than what the expectations were at 1.8% so something very similar to what we witnessed yesterday for headline inflation CPI coming in better than what the expectations were at 2.5 versus 2.6% so it's it's practically the same report year-over-year PPI coming in better than Expectations by 10 basis points month over month in line with expectations and core inflation once again core PPI when you exclude for food energy uh month- over month increasing slightly higher than what the expectations were so 3% uh versus 2% and year-over-year course uh PPI sitting at 2.4% now reading a little bit further into this report uh what you'll also see is that if you take out um food energy and Trade Services we were actually up 3.3% and I think that is what the markets might be putting in a little bit more weight into because that is an acceleration back higher from the last couple months I mean we did see June and July coming in at 3.2% so we were kind of flatlining a little bit on the PPI 3.2% for the last couple months but August we actually saw a bit of an acceleration back up to 3.3% for core PPI when you exclude for both food energy as well as trade services so you know it really depends how much you want to read into it but this is the highest level going back as far as May 2024 and if you were to cross above 3.4 then we haven't seen that level in all year in over 12 months we haven't seen that PPI reading uh of over the 3.4 or 3.5% but luckily we were still at 3.3 but that is still an acceleration back higher a little bit from compared to the last couple months so so that's that's where we are for for inflation it's you know it's starting to paint a really interesting picture for the US economy more in the allines of Stack flation because yes inflation is coming down so we are seeing some you know healthy decreases in overall inflation uh but at the same time uh you'll notice that it is also stabilizing a little bit so this is the inflation picture um you know while total PPI on a headline basis year-over-year basis coming down from 2.7 then 2.1 down to 1.7% that is good it's still higher than where we were back in June of 2023 so just over a year ago we were actually at a lower reading and this has accelerated back up and if you come take a look at less food energy and Trade Services um it was lower at 2.5 2.7% then started to move up 3.4 and then 3.2 3.2 and then starting to see that acceleration as I pointed out back up to over 3.3% like I said if you were higher than 3.4 then that would be a level that we haven't seen since March of 2023 so this is more of a stabilizing picture than anything else I mean if you want inflation to be trending lower we want to see something like this where we saw consistent decline on a year-over-year basis but now it's really just stabilizing sideways and the problem is that it's actually stabilizing at a higher level than what the FED wants it to be um if you really look at CPI as well so let's just uh open it up into a different uh tab here so CPI we're going to come over to the charts and we're going to look at the last 12 months worth of CPI year-over-year readings and on a 20-year basis so this is good right so this is headline inflation stabilizing and then hit its peak back in March of 2024 then from 3.5 it's been accelerating lower 3.4 3.3 3% and now down to 2.5 that's good but if you take a look at food and energy excluded so basically just core inflation it's been more or less stable yes it's still trending lower but at a very very slow rate so that just goes to show that energy is really the big big reason why we're seeing um inflation come down because once you strip out for energy um inflation is stagnating a little bit more sideways it's more uh sort of stable as opposed to trending downward um so it's really you know that's why core inflation is so important that's why the Federal Reserve focuses on core inflation because you know you never know what's what what how the volatility is going to be for oil prices and for food um and then when you strip out those two numbers that is the real inflation the Federal Reserve is really focused on and on both reports on PPI and on CPI we're seeing uh more of a stabilization on core bases as opposed to uh as opposed to the the actual headline numbers so so keep that in mind uh you know obviously we already are pegged for about a 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve so if you come over to the FED watch tool we've got a meeting next Wednesday so in about 6 days is when the next meeting takes place and the markets are pretty much priced in for a 25 basis points 85% probability after yesterday's report that we're going to get a 25 basis point cut next week on septe like September 18 so September 18 next Wednesday is when the reports going to come out along with the summary economic projections We'll Be Live to cover that entire event I think it's going to be the most important event for the markets in all of 20 24 probably the most important event uh for the last couple years because that is going to really Mark the beginning of a interest rate cutting cycle um if 25 basis points indeed comes through from the Federal Reserve which the market is very much optimistic of 85% investors pretty much priced in for a 25 basis point cut so so that's where we are volatility rotating back a little bit you know back over 17 and qq's are still essentially flat on the day so this was a bit of a decline after the numbers came out so we dropped about 40 basis points um the S&P 500 also dropping a little bit further so on the five-minute chart you'll notice that you know long Wick to the upside but this right here was really the sell-off of over 30 basis points but very very similar reaction to yesterday's CPI report a little bit of a knee-jerk reaction to the downside and then we'll see what rest of the day brings us because yesterday we definitely witnessed significant amount of inflows into technology so it really was a day where uh you know we were going into risk on assets so Bitcoin ether Nvidia um you know even magnificent 7 like those were the sectors those were the stocks that were really participating in this upwards momentum for the market so this is the entire Rally from around 10:30 a.m. eastern so really it was yesterday at 10:30 a.m. eastern when a lot of volume sort of kicked in for the markets and I mean just take a look at these rallies I mean you know we ended up by the time it was 10 p.m. uh we we saw five % inflow in ether Bitcoin also pushing up 4 to 5% so you know btcusd if you come over to this very very similar price action as you know going from 10:30 all the way till 2:15 p.m. Eastern 4.3% rally here for Bitcoin as well and that was almost identical trend for if you come over to Nvidia you know same exact pattern where uh you know you'll notice that it kind of formed bottom here at 10:30 uh in the morning and of course it rallied back up to over 1117 uh dollars so this right here was the massive move to the upside for NVIDIA as well so a lot of inflows and we've also uh created a new tab for um for our members on the money vest platform so let me just go ahead and show you guys what that is um let me just bring it up here in just a second um and what you can do is you can actually take a look at the overall Market concentration and how much of those gains and losses are actually coming from um different stocks so this is what we have built uh for now and we're going to be making some tweaks and adjustments to that as well um but I I think it's going to be super helpful for everyone just give me one second I'm going to put on this disclaimer so uh this right here is going to be something that I think is going to be super super helpful for everyone to really look at and uh Bloomberg has something very similar the Bloomberg terminals they kind of give you that percentage contribution to the entire change um on the daily basis but what we have here is it's going to tell you the notional value of the S&P 500 $51 trillion in market cap for all stocks and what we have here is nothing but specific indexes that we have created and in the future I'm going to be creating I'm going to do a poll in our community what other stocks you want to club together to create a new index so what we're going to do is we're also going to create something called Finn 5 which is the top five banks in the United States in terms of their market caps um then we're also going to be looking at the top top three retailers like you know whether we want to include for Amazon Walmart Costco things like that and then other staple stocks or utilities um so you're really going to create some specific indexes to better understand where the liquidity is going to so this essentially tells us okay big three we got Microsoft Apple Nvidia you know almost $10 trillion in market cap combined and we're looking at $321 billion going into this sector this this three stocks here yesterday and it was up 3.5% compared to their previous day uh magnificent 7 432 billion top 10 561 billion and then you can also take a look at S&P 500 constituents and you can come over here you know again look at 100 different stocks per page and go as much as six pages um and and really take a look at okay which were the companies that were pushing higher pushing lower among all the S&P 500 stocks and by what amount by what market cap so you can also filter this by market cap change and if you do that you'll see Nvidia was at the top of the list $215 billion followed by Microsoft 68 billion and Amazon 52 billion then broadcom getting a lot of liquidity as well at $46 billion as well so lots of momentum coming in for these companies so it was a very much of a riscon trade um for for the markets of course now I also do want to go over some other things which we will talk about here in just a minute so let me uh go over some of the comments first and uh give you guys a bit of an update on where we are uh with the markets and then we'll focus on some comments and some questions on the live chat here okay um good morning everyone thank you so much for joining how does iwm look um let's take a quick look iwm has been underperforming uh a little bit here over the last couple days I would say um you know it's still down from its all-time highs so alltime highs of course sit well over uh $235 so we're still down a little bit over 11% so still in a correction for iwm but if you come take a look at iwm divided by let's see SPX um you'll you'll notice that we have been underperforming a little bit over the over the last couple years so S&P of course was the place to be uh considering iwm has underperformed significantly uh in a very long time and now it's starting to show some signs of strength every so often it kind of moves up but then of course start to rotate back lower so this week so far it is underperforming down over 2% relative to the S&P 500 so yes while the rate Cuts there is this big consensus that rate cuts are going to benefit small caps midcap stocks um and there's a lot of investors kind of betting heavily on I M Tomley as we know is very very bullish on small caps I have a position in iwm that I'm up on very very small amount uh but I do believe that there is a possibility for us to see that momentum back higher at least back up to um all-time highs well over $235 $233 per share so we got a brand new support here at 198 after it broke out that's the new support uh resistance is going to stay up at $233 copy and paste um so today trading graph follows exactly like yesterday's trading so well um you know we don't know yet that that is really just going to come down to what is going to be the the expectation from the markets of course um but but it is possible sure I mean yesterday's data was almost alike to what we just got today but I I do want to point out to the idea that markets May read it read into a little bit further into the acceleration that we're seeing in the core PPI when you exclude for uh food energy and Trade Services as well so that blue line really is where the focus could be um which is again stagnating sideways it's not really trending in lower um instead it's just moving sideways suggesting for uh the stack inflation type environment which many investors have called for so um stack infation next American story game rating Master says LM says the Federal Reserve won't cut while shelter is lagging and it has 35% waiting um you know on inflation it is the only component that keeps inflation where it is now your thoughts C so I agree I think um you know shelter has a big role to play if housing doesn't come down in terms of rents owner's equivalent rent um it doesn't come down then then it's very difficult for inflation overall to Trend lower so what we have here is 8.2% increase coming down to a more stable 5% but it's really just stagnating sideways now so it's not really you know going down anymore if anything it accelerated back up on a year-over-year basis to 5.2% so that is of course um not the best news for investors because it make does make up over 30% of overall inflation so if shelter prices are higher um inflation overall is expected to stay elevated um if shelter prices continue to decline that's going to be a good sign because energy has been doing its part energy saw a significant reduction here in oil pric as it came down we saw from 41% we went into deflation so actually prices were going down on a year-over-year basis by 16% at one point and then we started to stabilize a little bit sideways and now once again we're down 4% and food also has been coming down it's it's practically down to 0% so food has done its job energy has done its job uh the only thing that hasn't really come down fast enough is shelter prices and shelter prices again making up for majority of um inflation so uh core inflation still up uh turbo last thank you so much for that donation I really appreciate that does PPI show producer demand uh going down so it really isn't a gauge of where the demand is it really is the the very core a gauge of how wholesale prices are holding up um at the moment in the economy right so what are businesses uh you know paying for raw materials and for wholesale prices that's that's what this tracks right so producer price index is essentially The Producers prices right so what what are they paying at the input cost input level for wholesale items for raw materials things like that and once they've finished goods then when they when they sell it to the consumers that's what's translated over to Consumer Price Index so oftentimes you would also hear people that okay if you know ppi is you know higher or is increasing at a faster rate than than CPI um that that means that the margins are shrinking and vice versa is also true if CPI is higher if inflation on the consumer level is higher than that in on the producer level then there is margin expansion because consumers are paying more for what it's costing the producers to pay for their raw materials so hope that makes sense because really it's kind of linking those two things together it's input cost for the producer that's PPI and then it's the finished goods cost for the consumer is what they're paying and if there's difference that is expanding that can be reflected in the margins that are expanding for uh for businesses and then they're going to maximize profit like at the end of the day if they have pricing power and if the demand continues to be there at higher prices they will maximize it right they're not running Charities they are for-profit organizations and as a result they're going to maximize if there is a demand for it and uh right now what we have is a CPI that is running above 2.5 um and a PPI that is running at 1. 7even so there is still a differential right about 80 90 basis points for Consumer prices to be higher compared to the producer prices so that is the margin uh that that that the that the producers are making right that's the businesses that are making and we can also actually track that differential uh to better understand how margins do so actually that's a good point that we should be able to do that uh simply tracking the difference between the headline CPI and the headline PPI to better understand whether that differential is increasing or decreasing to better understand how margins could be doing for producers and how much pricing power they really have at the end of the day so okay um let's see even though it might be transitory but why uh wonder why they don't talk about the deflationary numbers in CPI um so there's not really a lot of deflationary numbers in CPI so if you really come over to the report I mean really the only one is energy it's down about 4% other than that I think maybe electricity not really uh a parel prices you know very very close to deflation but only. 3% education and communication uh you know it was in deflation territory for a very small period of time in November December 2023 then exploded back higher almost 1% then we got food away from home we got gasoline that of course is in deflation as as as combined with Energy natural gas also Commodities less food and energy here also in deflation down about 1.9% and we got Services less energy um Energy Services we are also in deflation actually we're not 4.9% is where we are and medical care services uh we were in deflation by 2.6% but we're pushing back up yes uh PPI numbers are out everybody uh producer price index numbers are out I shared with everyone but this right here is where we are so for August 2024 uh the total increase for PPI headline PPI was 2% year-over-year 1.7 which was a little bit lower than the consensus and X food and energy month over month. 3% uh slightly higher than what the expectations were at two and then core PPI excluding for food and energy year-over-year we're sitting at 2.4% and then if you exclude for Trade Services also uh we're coming down to 3.3% um or I should say rather say like we're pushing up to 3.3% because that was a bit of an acceleration from where we have been over the last couple months so Market's reaction was not the best initial reaction was of course a little bit of a pullback on the on the qq's uh but we're more or less stable right now Tesla is down about 1.2% um and then we got spy up about 17 basis points and Nvidia right now which is one of the hottest trades at the moment um is up over 27 basis points I'm also considering rolling up my options up and out for next week for NVIDIA we'll see what the premiums look like I'm most likely looking at about a couple more dollars in additional capital gains so about a 112 or 114 strike for next week uh those are going to be in the money calls of course so we'll see what the premiums look like and whether I can get a net credit for Rolling those out or not so we'll keep you guys updated on the Discord of course um and uh and I think that should be interesting for us to see Pedro uh shelter is first necessity like food and water so the economy has to break to cool down prices let it happen fair so that's a good point you know if if sometimes a recession is necessary to bring inflation down that's happened before it's it won't be the first time that's happening uh you know as as the Federal Reserve increases interest rates what that does to the economy of course puts a lot of pressure that pressure translates over to a recession that recession leads to lower prices and that's when the feder reserve Cuts interest rates to normalize the economy stimulate that growth again and we're on our way back higher with some strong growth so it won't be the first time certainly won't be the last it is possible that we experience that as well uh what happened with the jobs data so we already got the jobs data last week so we covered that on Friday uh we did see a little bit of a pullback in unemployment back down to 4.2% uh down from 4.3 so unemployed persons however did stabilize slight decrease but it's still well over 7.1 million unemployed person persons with job openings just over 8 million puts that ratio at 1.07 so it's normalized a little bit it's come down from 2.5 uh you know I've talked about unemployment extensively on the channel in multiple of my videos going over job vacancies going over unemployed persons the ratio the Meli indicator recession signals a lot of different things that we've talked about on the Channel with regards to the jobs numbers uh Kenny hi keny thanks for everything you do one of the best out there for financial content a quick one what's your take on Nvidia short and long-term shares so you know it's so for the long term I'm very bullish and optimistic on Nvidia so I have it in my long-term portfolio we continue to buy uh every opportunity I get uh closer to low 100s or sell $100 ideally would be the better price for me Professor demoan has a fair value at $86 for NVIDIA I've got it around the same price it's on the 37 stocks in ETFs shopping list so for a long term you know I am bullish I am optimistic on Nvidia I believe that you know artificial intelligence it's got huge potential that's the future that's going to be required in pretty much every piece of Hardware uh that we build and so Nvidia kind of leading that market very very dominant player um and it's not just Nvidia like the entire semiconductor sector I want to be very clear I think semiconductors in general are going to offer tremendous amount of value creation for artificial intelligence and you know high-end Computing um so for those reasons I am optimistic and I will continue to buy for the long term in the short term though you know since it has so much volatility and it's jumping up and down like crazy like last week it was down 15% uh this week it's already up over 12 133% right now uh premiums are really really lucrative like they're very attractive so I want to take advantage of those opportunities I want to trade Nvidia um while I can while I continues to trade sideways um and that's the thing right I mean yes Buy and Hold is great no doubt about it like Buy and Hold high quality companies and you know just do that is fantastic but then you also have to consider the risk or the opportunity cost sometimes you have to write you have to be smart about how you want to go about trading the stock or the market that you're in um Tesla I'm a long-term investor in Tesla I I love that stock I love the company I love the potential that it has over the long term but I also cannot ignore that over the last three years it has gone nowhere it has literally gone nowhere so you you tell someone that Buy and Hold is best but you go back three years and it's given you no returns if anything it's actually gone down right it's gone down by 45% uh in some instances down even more so so while it's completely okay to have a long-term portfolio where you continue to accumulate and dollar cost average for the long-term thesis to play out that may take many many years um you can also consider on a short-term basis medium-term basis to to you know set up those trades with proper risk management uh proper stop losses proper ideas and strategies to generate some income and generate some cash flows I mean Tesla has given me so many premiums like so much profit realized profit over the last three years just by trading the wheel on this um that that it's insane and the the the rally hasn't even started yet it hasn't even broken out of its 270 resistance so for NVIDIA I kind of you know see something similar is that going to happen I don't know if it takes off great still have it in my long-term portfolio if it doesn't gives me the opportunity to trade the wheel over and over again considering how strong the premiums are for this stock here so it really practically stading at the same level from back in May so we got June July August September now almost approaching October so four to 5 months of sideways action for NVIDIA is a lot of consolidation right you could be the most bullish investor in Nvidia but you also cannot ignore that there are going to be instances where it goes sideways right there's consolidation because a lot of the growth is already baked into the price it's already pulled forward on a lot of that future growth and why else would Professor demoran put up put down an $86 fair value on Nvidia right I also have a fair value which is almost something similar so if it trades down to lower prices you know in and around these levels here so we're talking $82 $76 right around here great I'm going to be a buyer for the long term um but if it doesn't if it continues to trade sideways like this then that's also phenomenal that gives us the opportunity to trade this and milk out as much money as we can these are all realized profits so we're not kind of looking at unrealized gains here okay um core inflation delays a Fed rate cut uh where we go into the bit of deflation markets Panic we get a good buying opportunity so yes anytime there is a panic in the market anytime we see you know significant selling pressure money V index you know coming down to to uh you know low threes or even sub threes that is by default for me going to be a very good buying opportunity that's exactly what we witnessed back on August 5th for uh for the markets when volatility spiked over 65 money V index was at 2.95 um very very uh close to the levels we haven't seen in over almost a year since November of 23 so you know those are those are some things to consider you know when markets come down they give you an opportunity dollar cost average for the long term like buy your high quality companies companies you've always wanted to buy for the long term um okay so let's see I think the markets are a bit ahead of itself would be good to have a dip and let the markets die just the fact the rates might not come down as fast as what we might be expecting a bit of deflation as well yes uh I think I think yeah so what what the markets really are witnessing right now is risk on riskof right that's really what's been happening in the markets we're kind of rotating in and out of different sectors uh utilities leading one day next day you know technology is the big winner the next day you know that we've got Eli ly and Proctor gamble pushing higher the following day Nvidia is the biggest trade of the day so it's just really been all over the place because the Market's sensitivity to a lot of this economic data has increased substantially because we're coming to a point where the Federal Reserve is now on the verge of cutting interest rates in just about a one week that is a big shift in the market that's a huge pivot right we we're just going from quantitative tightening we're going from a restrictive monetary policy standpoint down to some more easing um we're going to get updates on their balance sheet how much are they going to continue to reduce the size of their balance sheet as well as how many rate cuts and for how long are we going to see those rate Cuts uh so it's a big shift for the entire market and that's why whatever data point comes out uh now right so got the unemployment got the CPI got the PPI in the future whatever unemployment numbers and inflation numbers we get the sensitivity to those numbers is going to increase meaning volatility is going to be more prone to whatever that numbers are coming out because then the markets are always going to be in this guessing game um for the longest time the markets knew the Federal Reserve is not increasing rates but they're also not cutting rates we haven't seen you know in over 20 months no hikes no cuts the Market's pretty much been certain about the fact that okay Federal Reserve is not doing anything right now they're not raising they're not cutting that's where we are but now we're going back to the guessing game where we were when the Federal Reserve was increasing rates when they were increasing rates the markets were again in this big question where are we going to see another hike in the next meeting are we going to see another jumbo hike if so by how much and don't forget the Federal Reserve actually did three 75 basis point hikes to get ahead of its inflation um so now we're back into that guessing game okay how much are we going to see those rate cuts by and if so you know how for how long and for how many so Market hates uncertainty if there's uncertainty markets by default take that route to sell off to to kind of sit out the market until there's more Clarity uh to go back into risk on assets so um I think that's that's the loop that we're kind of in where it's risk on riskof day-to-day um and that's why I mentioned that this is a good tradable Market to be in because we're really just trading sideways and S&P hasn't really you know gone anywhere in since July I mean July we're practically at the same level you know we sold off we pushed up we sold off again a little bit of a minor dip uh double top here but also can be considered a bit of a higher low so it's really you know practically at one point we were at the same level from back in June so it's been 3 four months where the S&P has been trading sideways okay um folks do me a favor drop a like on this live stream if you're enjoying the updates on a regular basis and also subscribe to the channel uh let's see what are we approaching almost to um so let's see here let's see so we are right now at 83 , 656 let's see if we can get up to 83,7 I would really appreciate that so encourage your friends family other Traders investors who um can benefit from this information and can help us get to that get to that goal as a community uh would love to grow and of course by the end of this year hopefully we can get up to 100,000 um okay so does the PPI is out yes the PPI numbers are out already so just for people that are joining us now uh we came in at around 0 2% in line with consensus 1.7% on a year-year basis uh slightly lower than the consensus of 1.8 and significantly lower than the prior number of 2.2 it's really the core inflation that once again increasing a little bit so 3% um you know higher than the consensus of 0.2 and then year-over-year for core inflation 2.4% was that number yes qualis we can take a look at that as well qys just very quickly I'm going to answer some questions here so uh caddy why weekly and video options and not monthly so monthly tends to be a lot more you know volatile in terms like I used to do monthly and I would still do monthly like 30 to 45 days Tel expiration I would still do that but the reason why I'm kind of doing shorter options right now is because it gives me more flexibility to manage my options really well if the so for example next week we've got the FED meeting this week we had inflation the week before that we had unemployment the week before that we had Nvidia earnings so four weeks in a row we've got so many things that that are lined up gives better sort of flexibility to manage my options if I need to roll them if I need to close them early if I need to retrade them so it gives me more flexibility to manage them better if I'm doing one month out then yes I can still manage them but then the problem that becomes is when I'm rolling options it's very difficult to roll in right it's a lot easier and most likely in most cases you're going to be rolling out meaning you're increasing your expiration and in most cases you're also rolling up meaning that you're rolling up on your strikes right depending on whether it's called a put but you can roll in right so if you're already starting with one month right you can't roll back in uh to a to a lower expiration you'll always be going out and I really don't want to have that much time on option contract so really what I'm doing is weeklys gives me more flexibility if I need to roll out I can always roll out but it's more difficult to roll in so hope that makes sense um which platform do you recommend for options trading in the UAE so um I think uh interactive brokers offer options um level one level one options should be uh fairly easy to qualify it is selling covered calls and selling cash skilled puts and that's practically the strategy that I utilize um what I'm also going to be doing next week is actually quite an interesting strategy that is called a hedge wrapper um so if my option well actually you know what yeah so no no no I'm not I'm not going to most likely do that because this option that I have on Nvidia will most likely be closing in the money um at close to 110 I'll see if I can roll those options out out but uh but if I roll this out this today or tomorrow then I will be doing a hedge wrapper it's like a caller because I'll be selling calls and selling puts on the same stock with the same expiration uh but different strikes so we'll be doing that we'll update everybody on the Discord I think it's going to be quite an interesting week next week because we've got the FED meeting um as well so okay PB un employment rate looks bad another sell off is coming at the opening FM says 25 P Point rate cut is certain but disappointing for the Traders um so okay and then how long until PPI we already got that and you do leaps or trade shares so mostly um trading options like selling puts and selling calls and at the same time um mostly investing for the long term for individual stocks inflation's at 2.5% interest rates are 5.5 feds are way behind the curve so Tera that's a good good point so you know to your point you know real interest rates are at 3% so once you account for the inflation rate um and then you subtract it from the federal funds rate at 3% and that is what means that the economy is still under restrictive uh monetary policy however the Federal Reserve does not need to operate at a 0% level it doesn't mean that the interest rates need to be at 2% just because inflation's at 2% so it doesn't have to match one for one if the Federal Reserve wants to be a little bit more tight in the economy they can certainly be above the inflation rate um if they want to be a little bit more loose they can be below the inflation rate thereby making real interest rates negative so they don't have there's no rule of thumb that they need to operate one to one um or if they are behind the curve or ahead of the curve um it's just where the stance currently is or is going to be based on the data that's coming in so to your point I fully do agree I think this time around they're behind the curve they're operating at a interest rate which is 3% higher than inflation so they're very very restrictive right now uh but I think a more normalized rate will be closer to 3 and a half or closer to 4% so 150 basis points over inflation is pretty normal normal um that's going to make sure that okay we remain moderately tight to make sure that inflation doesn't spiral out of control but also at the same time does not put too much pressure on the economy that warrants a recession so hope that makes sense it's really just kind of finding that balance between being too tight versus too loose and really just kind of maintaining that um rate which is stimulating growth but at the same time uh not putting a lot of pressure on either inflation or the economy so hope that makes sense uh Google looks to be trading back above $150 so yes Google is you know one of the stocks that I've picked up uh will continue to buy very nice move back up 1.6% 154 uh right now and this right here is the area of demand for Google so very very strong area of support and demand we've talked about this on the channel before um and it's also part of our 37 stocks in ETF uh watch list so right there support level roughly at 151 152 for Google here okay qualis we'll take a quick look ql Ys um let's see so let's see how that stock is doing so continues to break down I would say the next support here piret is going to be sitting roughly at $14 $105 so lots of demand here for this company and that would be that next support level to watch uh it also seems to be forming these bare flag breakdowns every so often so you know sells off consolidates sideways then breaks down further then consolidate sideways a little bit here breaks down further looks like consolidating sideways so it's possible that it break breaks down further so there's been this bare flag breakdown pattern for this company um since 2023 December 2023 so I'd be watching this support here at $104 $105 uh okay so Devin paler thank you so much for that donation but let's take a look at paler the next Target is pretty much the all-time high uh another pretty strong week for paler up almost 15% and uh the next Target and resistance all the way up to $44 $45 I do believe that 40 bucks is possible by the end of this year that's kind of like my unofficial Target on uh on palente tier just based simply on the momentum that were that were witnessing um and uh 45 of course is going to be the all-time high I would just say that be careful because the valuation is high for palente here I mean trades at over 30 times sales multiple and well over 60 70 times earnings so I would just be very careful about the valuation that palen tier trades at if you already have the stock great I would just enjoy the ride on the way up uh but if you are planning on starting a new position I would definitely think long and hard before you deploy capital in jaal Ander trading out a valuation that it's trading at now like I said 30 times sales and I think 60 70 times earnings multiple um if you believe in the growth long term nothing wrong with that just I want you to be aware of what valuation you're buying at because do not invest in companies based on the price of the stock invest in companies based on the price of the company um company price is the valuation price of the stock can fluctuate and it's it's pretty much irrelevant whatever the price is is irrelevant at the end of the day um okay Mike yes thank you so much help caddy get to 85,000 uh appreciate that and let's see ECB interest rate decision 3.63% like forecast was 6% lower than previous good for special old coin today best entry okay all coins just be careful have your proper risk management in place uh someone says okay newbie question here when you are trading do you do it with options or actual shares not sure what to what the benefits are one or the other so when you are U so there's two different strategies mostly I like to trade um secured puts and covered calls and when I'm selling puts I have cash ready to buy the shares if I need to so because as a seller you have an obligation as a buyer you have the right uh you know this is something that we have discussed in the options course but if you are selling options just remember you have an obligation to fulfill on your orders if those contracts are in the money by the time the expiration comes around um and they're forceable they are enforceable at that strike price so it's an obligation if you're selling options if it's a right if you're buying options so for me if I'm mostly selling I have the cash ready or the shares ready to fulfill those orders that I am selling my options on okay uh future is not really showing enthusiasm and Traders had enough time to reflect on the PPI so what I would say is this PPI reading is neither okay nor bad or looking at the future futes are pointless well I think PPI ppi's relevance to the market is a little pointless not that the futures um looking at Futures is pointless I think CPI plays a bigger role um on the Market's direction as opposed to previous price index uh but yes we are basically flat U right now and Nvidia just dropped um pre-market I mean it was up a little bit over 1% but it looks like we are seeing a decent selloff in Nvidia back down to 170 $17 right now uh okay so I agree with you I was about to say that in my per rate should be at least 3.5% so that's good uh we didn't get my all-time highs in August what do you think about spy peing to 6K in October for my birthday's access um I think it's going to peek around my birthday November um I think elections are a little bit more un it's going to create some uncertainty um for the markets and like I said markets hate uncertainty I think things will clear up after November after the first week of November um because of you know we'll know what the Federal Reserve trajectory looks like we'll have a couple more unemployment and inflation reports to reflect on we'll have the outcome of the infl of the elections so things will clear up in terms of okay what the next year and even four years look like for the markets and the economy given the outcome of the election given the Federal Reserve statements and the SCP given a couple more unemployment prints as well as inflation report and and I think we'll have a much better idea in that November meeting so November 5th is the election November 7th is the fomc meeting so those two days I think that's when we kind of clear a lot of those questions those doubts um with the with the market uh so I think that's that's going to create that momentum and it's going to open us up to to potentially have a very nice last couple months of the year November and December historically also seasonality wise they've been the best months uh for the market so you know first week of September was brutal uh this week we are up over 2.6% so we're kind of recovering a little bit from last week's losses but I still won right off uh the September seasonality because it's really just the last couple of weeks of September that the selling pressure tends to be more brutal and if that were the case this year then this week could be considered as a bit of a bull trap and we'll find out what happens next week with the fed and then of course before you know it we're going to have earning season starting in October as well so so yeah I mean it's really October 15 to November 15 that that's going to be that 30-day period where I think a lot of the data that's coming out all the earnings unemployment inflation uh manufacturing numbers construction everything as well as election and the FED meeting is really what's going to make or break the markets here in the next sort of um next next few years uh B can I buy Nvidia today so really depends I mean your your time Horizon your conviction on that company uh serel proo did you lose money on Nvidia so no uh up very very nicely um now I have capped my upside on the options portfolio but that is how you run the wheel in the first place you can't time the trade perfectly but uh but so far the last 3 weeks uh just netted just over $3,000 um on Nvidia and will most likely roll out my options today we'll see what kind of net credits I can get and if that were the case then I can also lock in a little bit more in capital gains and so I can increase my profit uh from 3,000 to like $4,500 $4,800 um if I'm able to roll out my options uh for next week but depends largely on how Nvidia trades today and and what kind of premiums we're working with okay um Mna down on Cost Cuts could be interesting what do you think about MBL so let's take a few looks here very very quickly so mobile eye I think I've done a video on mobile ey before um Intel's spin-off IPO um I think it was priced very very expensive three back-to-back months of just brutal selling pressure here down over 62% so hitting a new all-time low basically so I'd be very careful it's kind of like a falling knife right now and until we see some buyers stepping in um I would just kind of stay away from it watch it from afar and see if there's any potential there Mata let's take a look on the weekly uh selling off down over 14% uh support level next is going to be sitting right over there uh at around $63 so that right there is going to be that level down to as well as $53 for Mna ACLS next support is going to be down at 7850 and we're going to go ahead and turn this level into a resistance now so very very strong resistance for esls in and around these levels next supports all the way around $70.50 for ACLS hims let's take a quick look at hims and hers I know there's a lot of people that are very bullish on this company Long Term uh it's been rolling over just a little bit from its highs of $26 down about 50% already um and support level is going to stay put right here roughly at $15 and another support to keep in mind is going to be down about here oh the market just opened we were so engaged in our conversation that we forgot the markets were almost ready to open here so S&P 500 flat right now I'll come to a lot of these questions here in just a minute we've got qq's uh also very very flat with Nvidia down about 20 basis points and we've got Tesla down about 1.4% right now so back down to 224 um at the moment excuse me been under the weather a little bit um so B I will join your courses shortly I'm impressed great knowledge yes so feel free to join we've got the money education tier that gives you access to all the four courses 172 videos on options fundamentals technicals and psychology so I think that should greatly help in your learning and if you have any questions please feel free to reach out and I'm more than happy to help um what is your thoughts on Adobe they release earnings today is this right time to enter into the for the long term so Shas I would definitely um refer to my 37 stocks and ETFs shopping list for Adobe I've got the fair value the buy targets everything's listed right on that spreadsheet so it'll give you a much better idea of where I see the value in Adobe in terms of what prices um but technically speaking we got a nice support here at 503 uh down to as low as $43 aligned with this previous support from back in May of 2024 so that's where we are Nvidia down to $116 I got to take a look look at how my options are doing and if there is a possibility for a roll out I'll be looking at 116 uh or 112 call strikes here so let's take a quick look while we can boom boom boom let's see okay it's loading it's loading Charles shop really really is very very slow to be honest sometimes $112 I can get about $13 in net credit so I think it would makes make a lot of sense for me to do that 113 and I'm paying a debit 112 what do you guys think by next Friday is NVIDIA going to be above 112 112 112 going once 112 going twice what does everyone think is NVIDIA going to be above 112 by next Friday next Friday not this Friday not tomorrow but next Friday what is everyone's predictions I really want to know what is everyone's expectations for Nvidia price action by next Friday I mean this has really been just a nice little recovery um for for NVIDIA but let me know what are you guys thinking for NVIDIA here by next Friday if it ends up selling off that's I guess that's still good news because 112 is $4 um below Brian says below above above don't forget we've got the FED meeting next week as well so got to take into account that as well there there's going to be some volatility um with the FED meeting Nvidia has been all over the place it will be 125 there we go it's back above it's back in the green now lots of buyers stepping in look at Tesla just turned profitable here just turned positive up over to three basis points right now S&P 500 is up about 10 basis points so also wanted to go a few more things here so CE Jensen Wong sold just another $25 million worth of Nvidia shares for a total of more than 78 million over the last week um a few more things I want to go over so the prime rate um just jumped to its highest level in over a c in this Century it's just kind of funny how they put it in the last 24 something years um and 37% of us small businesses have seen their earnings drop over the last 3 months the highest share in 14 years and this is even weaker than the 35% seen during the 2020 pandemic um and over the last three years small business earnings have declined in near straight line lower so small businesses definitely are indeed struggling uh right now with the interest rates as high as they are so we did have a little bit of a pullback then got bought up here starting to come down but Tesla's looks like it's the potential trade of the day just four straight green candles in a row and Google and Google also doing very well up almost 2% right now um so very nice backup to 155 you were looking at calls uh excuse me puts on Google for selling them because of how interesting it was down in the 140s but my Charles Schwab doing what it does best not being able to to do that not allowing me to sell options because my funds hadn't settled yet so I had to wait so here we go uh from a Mac 7 standpoint Advanced Micro Devices is down the most well not that it's part of Max 7 no margin account no so I don't trade on margin I only trade on using cash same as thinger swim thinger swims been absorbed by Charles Schwab so they didn't let me sell options uh because my funds hadn't settled yet and so I have to wait until Monday to place new trades so I'm kind of pretty pissed about that because I I was hoping like Friday expiration tomorrow I can you know just make another few couple hundred dollars and that's it like you just got to wait until the fund settled anyway so Google up almost 2% meta pushing higher as well we got Netflix Tesla Amazon uh rallying back up so Market seems to be a bit more indecisive um on the day today where qq's are essentially flat we've got spy also just trading sideways uh not really giving us a very clear Direction and we'll see what happens with Nvidia lety margin account for the win just be careful with margin accounts as I'm sure you already know no that's okay I I stay away from margin just altogether I could I mean I could trade on margin but I'm already trading options and to pile on more margin on top of that it's just starts to feel very no I haven't been selling calls on pain pal just yet it's it's way below my C uh cost basis so if I go with a lower CA strike I risk getting my shares called away at a loss and I don't want to do that Nvidia is back over 117 volatility here is is Let's Take a Look volatility is up about 1% right now so just a little bit under 18 right now you are responsible enough to trade on margin Ley says yes I know that I am but it's just I don't know it's just not something that I prefer so what is everyone thinking is this a is this a fake rally right now are we going to get absolutely crushed in a few in a few hours or is this for real is this more momentum more rallies coming for real here so there we go that's that's the change uh live change on the market cap $55 billion added so far into the day um the top three are basically flat down almost 6 billion uh then we got magnificent 771 billion and top 10 104 billion some of the biggest magnificent some of the biggest changes Google coming in with the heat $34 billion um then we've got meta platforms almost 20 Nvidia up over 18 billion Amazon up almost 17 Oracle up 3% right now so seeing a lot of momentum as well Oracle has pretty much been trading near all-time highs up another almost 3% right now the bullets have been awakened from hibernation you'll get two two and a half days before you get Margin Call liquidation yes so I want to avoid that at all cost so if you have any questions about not individual stocks but really just about the markets in general um let me know know and I'm more than happy to go over those individual stocks I'm I really just want to analyze it in our Discord uh for for the members if they have any questions regarding any individual stocks most of them are in the 37 stocks in ETF so you know whether it's cyber security or uh semiconductors or technology in general I think a lot of them are part of that spreadsheet and uh you can refer to it you know it's got my fair values my buy targets my no-brainer buy targets all of that in there and uh and I think that can serve as a very good guide on what stocks to look at and then how you want to go about formulating those trades for yourself so you can sell more covered calls with margin that is true that is true so I could do that but then there's a big risk that if I own shares with margin if the if the stocks drop aggressively like I'm trading Nvidia right now then you know the count can get liquidated lety stop selling me on margin right now okay I'm not I'm not caving in I'm not using margin to trade options so historically which part of September has been the worst selloff uh it's been towards the last two weeks where the selling pressure has really accelerated so PPI numbers already out uh s&p500 resistance so uh question can we have one with one one-on-one with you subscribe for money so uh we used to have that right now with the limited time on my hands I'm not able to offer one-on ones um maybe in the future um we can do that but uh but right now it's kind of difficult uh with everything that's going on like we're working on the platform the money West website the the courses the the transition away from all the other platforms over to our own website and um you know trading and everything else that's it becomes difficult to find the time to and then on top of that you know got to do a lot of research and Analysis and kind of bring you the best information so becomes a bit difficult uh but definitely in the future I will I will reopen that up for for members come this money okay perfect yeah I definitely come meet with you yeah margin always carries extra risk as well uh Lululemon wow Nvidia is back up to 11774 right now so very very incredible uh run up here so lud lemon uh you know we've got a huge selloff in lemon down I think over 50 to 60% from its highs of $481 so down over 50% right now coming up to that resistance I would say so we'll go ahead and turn this level into a resistance once again for Lululemon it's a good company I I like I like the brand I like the fundamentals I like everything about lul lemon it's just uh the uncertainty around the consumer um remains to be a big Catalyst as to why it's been uh selling off and of course were technically really weak Tesla for the big win today 1.3% so very very nice move $231 and we've got Nvidia back in the green $117 I may even consider rolling out a little bit further out 920 wouldn't be wouldn't be so bad either good time to get out of MDB so mongod DB let's take a look at this company not profitable so you know always when you're investing in in in in individual stocks for the long term definitely um figure out okay what what's the company's profitability like are they planning on getting profitable in the future with positive cash flows because if they're not then you know they could be they could not turn out to be the best places to put your money in um very few companies can execute according to their plan paler is a prime example of how they were able to turn the corner towards profitability for but for every one palente here there's 99 NEOS that are like just still struggling right not able to become profitable so it's very very important you do that analysis of um profitability but for mongod DB I I think support level you know right about 214 we got we had this Gap that we're now starting to fill out and if you were to put down a resistance well maybe there's resistance definitely resistance here at 428 and another previous support potentially acting as a resistance at 325 okay let's come over to to the markets here on the 30 minute time frame I'll go over the levels okay this is why this is so important is because S&P right now is like right there it's literally right at that resistance so a level that was historically acting as a very strong support is now acting as a bit of a resistance now the question for all of you 500 of you guys watching is whether we get a breakout from this resistance here um or we get a rejection and we start to trade back lower so that's the big question here that we're we saw a very nice rally yesterday we're coming up to this resistance and now the question becomes is a breakout on the cards or is it a rejection and then back lower that's the big question and same thing true for I believe QQ is coming up to that resistance now and uh this is where we are so you know at 468 yes we've done analysis on Sofi as well uh a lot in the past and so on the 5minute time frame you'll notice uh just consolidating sideways and uh support level now is going to stay right about here and these levels actually do matter right so they are very very carefully curated um and calculated in terms of where the support resistance is because even yesterday you'll notice that we as soon as we broke out we came down to validate that support before pushing up and resuming that rally so now we got a resistance at 46888 and a support level at 464 so that would be the level to keep in mind on the day today so that's going to be it for today everyone thank you so much for joining in I really appreciate that and uh make sure that you drop a like And subscribe to the channel uh you know help us get to our goal you're going to be part of an amazing Community I guarantee you that uh a lot of people that are just focused on helping each other um with their investing and trading journey and um really you know if you have any questions uh please do let us know we've got lots of amazing people I I can't speak highly of uh I can't I can't enough speak highly of how amazing the people are in our community uh just really true genuine uh people that want to help each other grow and really just you know help you in your investing Journey so again thank you so much really appreciate you all make sure to you drop a like subscribe to the channel uh Market doesn't seem to like the fact that I'm going um but we are starting to roll over just a little bit so