Tracking Francine: 11:45 a.m. update as the tropical storm moves in to Memphis

e e good morning everybody ABC 24 meteorologist Corey Smith here we're going to talk about what we're seeing here across the mids South today as the what will eventually be the remnants of Francine moves through the Midsouth so let's talk about today a weather impact day here at ABC 24 we're going to talk about the impacts that are ongoing right now and what you can expect as you go throughout the rest of your Thursday before we get into things we are starting to get some announcements from school districts across the mids South that they are releasing early we're going to have all that information on ABC abc4.com so make you log on there after this live stream you can see which schools are releasing early the times that they're putting out but we are starting to see that come in as we get a little bit later on into things so let's start off talk about the impact for today why we have a weather impact day and it's because of the chance of some heavy rain and some Gusty winds that we're starting to see move into the Midsouth as of right now so we're going to be watching for these storms make sure that you have a place to be inside of course as it get a little bit later on into today as winds start to get a little bit Gusty into the after afternoon we're going to go right over to the radar show you what's going on right now some pretty heavy rain over the Memphis Metro these yellows and oranges that you're seeing on your screen uh rain rates around a half inch to an inch here across the Memphis Metro we already picked up over an inch of rain in Memphis itself earlier on today and notice this band a little bit up to the North near cumington we've seen uh some rainfall reports and we'll show you this here in a second of two to three inches already with this storm and the heaviest rain is still down to the South I'm going to put a loop on this and show you guys what's going on here so here's that spin with this low pressure so this is a a depression right now you're going to see it pushing out uh really across the entire viewing area at this point so pretty much all of us are getting rain the center of the low is way down here at the bottom of your screen and so there is still quite a bit of rain on the way moving up to the north and Northwest that we're going to be dealing with over the next couple of hours this band right here setting up in North Mississippi is where we're going to see some of our Gusty winds really start to come into play we've seen already reports of some tropical storm Forest wind gust along this line and of course heavier rain so this is where I think the flash flooding concern especially in Memphis is going to be something that we're watching for just a little bit more so let's talk about the track right now this is now tropical depression France scene uh as of this morning weakening from a tropical storm to a tropical depression and it's moving to the north at 14 mph wind sustained of 30 to 5 mph the track doesn't really move too much over the next 24 hours still Friday evening over Northeast Arkansas so we're going to keep the chance of rain around I think in the forecast at least somewhat as he head into tomorrow uh but overall the cloud cover is going to be the biggest thing that you notice I think through maybe even Saturday we're not going to see too much if any Sunshine here across the mid South so let's break down what we've seen so far like I said some areas just north of the Memphis Metro this yellow shading that your seeing right here 2 to three Ines of rain already and we haven't seen the heaviest stuff move through so that is why I think at this point flash flooding is going to be our biggest concern as you head a little bit later on in today right around 1 and a half inches of rain currently that we've seen so far in Memphis over the last 24 hours most of us nearing at least an inch except for Dyersburg where we really haven't seen too much rain mve in quite yet but these totals will start to go up just a little bit later on we do have a wind advisory out that's going to be for the entire viewing area for today and that's because we do expect wind gust to get upwards of 40 to 45 milph enough to cause maybe some isolated power outages as you go throughout the day we've already seen some power outages here in the Memphis Metro uh MLGW was around 4,000 people without power the last time I checked so we are seeing some people impacted by that and we do have a flood watch out that's going to be for the entire viewing area that's the chance of maybe seeing flooding as you go into the afternoon and evening so I want to walk you through hour by hour what we're expecting this is 11:00 a.m. and I will say our model a little quick with things so a lot of this really heavy rain still a little bit to the South but timing is pretty close to what we've been seeing so far today so as you get around 1 to 2:00 I think that's when we see the heaviest rain here in Memphis in the Memphis Metro and that's really going to be the chance of seeing probably the best setup for flat FL flooding here in the region but this is 400 p.m. the center of what is going to be potentially at that point just a Remnant low of France Seine is going to be bringing in that Heavy Rain to North Mississippi and continuing here in the Memphis Metro through about 4 to 5 p.m. now after that we'll have to see how quickly this is moving uh we could start clearing up with some of that more steady precipitation by 7 to 8:00 p.m. here in Memphis North Mississippi you might be done by 5 to 6: p.m. north of that this is going to linger through about 900 p.m. so when we show the timeline here in a second we've included the timing out to 9:00 p.m. just because we're going to see at least this precipitation north of I40 for at least a couple more hours but notice by 11: p.m. it's really weakening a lot and we're not dealing with any downpours I think for most of us as we head into the overnight we'll see some spotty showers here and there and that Trend continues as you go into your Friday we'll put things for you and show you your Friday this is Friday morning still some very light rain in Northeast Arkansas and this is going to continue as this load just meanders across the region for the next 36 hours through Saturday even uh potentially early Sunday so we can't rule out some spotty showers Friday and even into here Saturday and we can't roll out at least a couple tropical downpours in the afternoon when we do get at least a little bit of that heating to break through that cloud coverage so we'll be keeping an eye in that but of course the heavy rain right now is really what we're watching for for the most our model currently showing around another 1 to 2 in of rain potentially here in Memphis uh but I want to show you here a lot of locations showing 2 to four so I think realistically another 2 to three inches of rain for most of the Midsouth as you go throughout the rest of this uh afternoon and evening which we've already picked up 1 to two inches of rain so this is quite a bit of precipitation in one day and that is why that flooding concern is here but this is much needed rain we're really seeing that drought start to really kick in and this is going to be some very beneficial rain for the viewing area unfortunately it's all falling on one day you like to have this a little bit more spread out but uh no complaints in that regards but of course uh flooding not something that we like to see so let's move on to winds what we're seeing right now and I want to show you this because these are observed wind gusts currently notice this dark blue shading that's tropical storm Forest wind gust when you see those dark Blues so Oxford has uh as of 11:00 a.m. reached around 39 M wind gust around 26 here in Memphis and Holly Springs 25 in tuna 26 in Corinth a little bit less once you get to the North though because the core of the system's still working up that way so these winds will increase especially north of I40 as you get into the next couple of hours and peing right around 30 to 40 miles per hour so Oxford probably as I would say high as that we we can expect here in Memphis and you'll see that here on our forecast model going throughout the rest of this evening uh we are expecting those wind gusts to Peak right around 30 to 40 m hour as they get into the afternoon as the center of the system starts to move in so this is 8:00 pm around 38 mow RNG Gust in Covington 34 in Truman 37 in Dyersburg 24 in Memphis so the center of the circulation right here so winds are a little bit lower when to get right into the center but still enough to cause like we said maybe some sporadic power outages here across the mids South so that's what be watching for by mid tonight though those wind gusts coming down enough that I think uh that probably won't be an issue anymore and as had the Friday you can see uh wind gusts around 10 to 15 miles per hour so much improved over what we're expecting over the next couple of hours so I want to show you the timeline right now uh wind and rain is going to be the biggest concern and let me move the cart out of the way just a little bit here so you can see the full graphic uh between 12 and 9 is when we're expecting uh the best chance of power outages flooding and wind as you go further north the later that shifted towards that 900 p.m. ending time if you're in North Mississippi like we said maybe 6 to 7 p.m. where that threat starts to die down now notice tornadoes we haven't really mentioned that too much I don't think that's really too much of a risk with the center of the storm right over us it's typically well east of that where we see these severe setups where we see tornadoes and that looks to be more over Alabama today so we can't rule out a spin up tornado between two and seven right now though really don't think that's tooo much of a concern uh currently with what we're looking at with the storm and it's really going to be about that wind and rain so let's go back to the radar real quick and then once we uh take a look at this um we'll see if there's any questions here on the live stream before we uh log things off here um but you can see at least that heavy precipitation it's steady now that's other thing too pretty much over the entire viewing area and we're seeing some pretty heavy rain and I'll zoom in here as you get down into North Mississippi Holly Springs seeing some pretty hefty uh rainfall rates stretching down over to Senatobia I'll put some queries on here and just show you guys how heavy this rain is coming down so about a half an inch to an inch an hour uh National Weather Service will be watching for some of these bands to produce 2 to three Ines per hour and some of the heavier rainfall and that's really where we're going to see some of that flash flooding occurring as we go throughout today but uh like we said a couple inches of rain have already fallen so when you have rainfall rates like this really start to compound as we get into the afternoon as we get more and more of that moisture into the soil won't be able to hold on as much and that's why we see that flooding risk uh let's take a little bit of a a broader view here and I'll move things out and show you guys uh what's going on here in the Memphis Metro uh just some light to moderate rain right now not expecting any heavy rain at least with that band down in North Mississippi until about 1 1 to 2: p.m. so we're still about an hour or two out and in fact let me put a track on this cuz it's been moving right around 15 to 20 mil hour so let me go ahead and put a track and we can put some times on this for you guys moving generally to the north and Northeast so South Haven around 12:24 uh Memphis around 1253 and let me move this out of the way real quick for you guys so you can see the locations uh West Memphis right around 119 Downtown Memphis right around 102 Forest City 145 and Covington right around 205 so like we said around that 1 to 2:00 time frame I think for most of the Memphis Metro that we see at least that heavy rain and that's when we're going to start to notice I think those wind gusts getting a little bit heavier there so that's what we'll be watching um as we get uh into this afternoon um let me walk off real quick and see if we got any questions on the live stream right now about any impacts that we're seeing so CJ's asking about lightning with these storms so uh that's uh kind of an interesting thing about tropical systems is that we typically don't see too much in the way of lightning uh outside of those feeder bands that are well off from the center of rotation and we are going to be right in the center of rotation with this storm so let me uh clear this out and show you guys what's going on um a little bit more regionally with this and I'll put a loop on this so you can see the system itself here's the center of rotation this is what's moving into the mids South so really we wouldn't expect thunderstorm activity until you get out into these bands out east and like we said the biggest tornado threat out in Alabama where we're seeing some of these thunderstorms along these feeder bands so that is why at least the severe weather threat looks a little bit reduced for us but we're going to be dealing with higher winds and also higher rainfall rates here as this gets up into the area but with that being said I think that went through most of the questions that we got so what I'm going to do is uh get you here a look at the radar let me get you back to the local radar I'll put a little loop on this real quick but I think that should end things here like I said um we're going to have the latest information on abc4.com we have all the schools releasing early we did get that information in um just during the midday show so make sure you're tuning into uh all of our live streams we're going to have a couple more as you go throughout the day if there's any flash flood warnings we'll let you know and we'll give you updates on power outages but with that being said we're going to wrap things up we'll see you in just a