NOAA predicts “extraordinary” hurricane season ahead | Jeff’s Climate Classroom

live on WFLA now with a specialized degree in climate chief meteorologist and climate specialist Jeff barelli is pioneering the way we look at climate and extreme weather welcome to Jeff's climate classroom powered by armor viiew Window and Door extraordinary that is the way that the National Hurricane Center the uh Folks at Noah are describing what could be this upcoming hurricane season they are predicting an extremely ACC hurricane season in their words the most active forecast they've ever issued in the month of May uh and I will tell you if if you've been watching us here at WFA we've been talking about it too all signs are pointing unfortunately in a very active direction for Hurricane Season we're going to be talking all about that I want to bring in my guest today our very own Val Simpson who is uh undoubtedly also concerned about what's going to happen this up coming hurricane season yes hi Jeff hi everybody thank you for tuning in and yeah we're going to deep into we're going to dig into why right why is it that they are calling for a extraordinary very active hurricane season this year so I can't wait to uh get into it yeah so this this truly is an extraordinary forecast so first things first let's just kind of put it up on the screen for you these are the numbers uh with they're forecasting and it's a wide range and Noah always has a wide range whereas a lot of other forecasts just pinpoint one number but Noah forecasting 17 to 25 storms 8 to 13 of those becoming hurricanes and four to seven of those becoming major hurricanes so to put it into some perspective for you the average number of Nam storms right now is about 14 that's the average over the past 20 or 30 years the average number of hurricanes is seven and the average number of major hurricanes this an important one is three so their forecast is for about 50% more activity than we'd see in a normal year maybe even a little bit more than that Colorado State University very similar with their numbers as you can see on the right 23 Nam storms 11 hurricanes and five uh major hurricanes uh and this is again the most active forecast that Noah has issued so Val um well yeah goad before we uh because I think you jumped into it you didn't even let me tell everybody that I have my trusty buzzer with me all right hold on let me let me bring you up so people can can can everybody hear this there we go if Jeff goes on a tangent this is a very important subject I know and we have a lot of question my wife's not watching she cuz she's going to want one of those she's going to I mean I I I hope she's not watching right now well it doesn't electrocute you so you should be okay I hope one that she gets doesn't electrocute me either uh but basically I'll be taking any questions if you guys are watching us from Facebook remember that you can send any questions to Jeff uh from my uh phone bag I guess here and I'll be watching any questions coming in any comments that you might have that you want me to tell Jeff about and he will address them but Jeff what my first thing is could this become The New Normal now that since you just went over the what the average numbers are is there a possibility that we could see total name storms in the 20s is that going to be like the new Norm well I hope not but I will tell you over the past few years if it's just the average of the past few years yeah I mean we that's what we've been seeing right 20120 we had 30 Nam storms um and the average has gone up just over the past couple of years from that's by the way that's JB in the background right there from uh 15 name storms excuse me it was 12 name storms there he is again look at him making cameos he gets paid every time he makes a came so I think that's probably why he's doing it uh so we used we used to average 12 name storms and now we average 14 name storms that changed a few years ago because we've been seeing more of these storms so the answer to your question is yeah we could we could definitely see uh this become kind of the normal although I will tell you that one of the reasons we're predicting an overactive season is not just because waterers warm that's the main reason it's because we've transitioned or we're transitioning out of an elino into Alano right now let's talk about that for a little bit all right so why don't I bring up uh the the map and show you what's going on so two things first of all it's record hot on average in the Atlantic right now record hot everywhere I mean when I say everywhere I mean record hot in the main development region tropical Land Development region it's also record hot in the Caribbean and it's also record hot in the Gulf so not just overall but it's all the basins are record hot right now so no matter what trajectory a storm might take it's going to go right through very hot Waters is that what you're saying that's right and a storm is much more likely to be destructive once uh water temperatures jump just a few degrees from let's say 80 or 82 up to like 85 or 86 much more like five times more wow um so let's also show you what's happening in the Pacific because this is important we have a linia forming all that red water that I was showing you in the in the near the equator there where it says a linia forming that red water is gone replaced by Blue Water meaning it's now below normal and within I'd say about uh a month and a half or so we will officially probably start to enter lania territory and the reason why that's important is if you look at that map right there and you're a let's say you're a storm picture yourself as a storm F yeah you're a storm you're trying to decide should I develop in the Pacific or should I develop in the Atlantic you're going to develop wherever the most energy is so actually there's there's something to this the atmosphere becomes more conducive to formation whatever Basin is relatively hotter so that's number one number two something we always talk about is reduced wind shear during linia elino produces more wind shear and I'm going to show you the results of that in a in a second or two too and wind shear helps destroy the storms or slow down correct it does wind shear does and last year what we saw was because there was extra wind shear close to Pacific so western side of the Atlantic we had a lot less storms there and weaker storms there and and the stronger stuff stayed out east towards Bermuda so it worked out kind of be textbook except for the fact that last year we had elino we shouldn't have seen 20 name storms and even during in elino we had 20 name storms so back to your question of is this the new Norm if elino can't bat down the Hurricanes like they used to be able to then yes it could be it could be the new Norm yeah yeah wow you know what I have next in here is uh showing you what's uh what's happening across the tropics right now okay okay so there's that area that you see that's uh over like east of the Bahamas there's about a 10% chance I think or it could actually gone up a little bit let's see uh oh it's still 10% okay a chance that that'll develop as it heads Northeast but it's nothing that we need to worry about because it's not heading in our Direction okay yeah very good uh and across the rest of the Atlantic there's just nothing going on right now but the first but there is a little tropical W to the west of the cape ver Island you know and I was going to say being that the waters are so warm wouldn't we see um more pre-season activity yeah this is a great question and I had this as my baradell bonus I think it was two nights ago yeah and basically what I talked about is you need a seed you can't form a storm off nothing so there has to be like an old front can't get old front right now because that big heat Dome that's across the Gulf of Mexico right sweltering in in Mexico they're running out of water in parts of Mexico right now monkeys are falling out of trees I mean that's how bad uh the heat is down there but anyway it's blocking fronts from getting into the Gulf of Mexico I'm gonna buz you okay what that was true I went I went over that monkeys falling out of monkeys are falling out of trees there there's major protests going on in Mexico even the police are involved with the protest because they can't get water oh wow it's a horrible drought situation it's been going on for a little while it's getting worse now because of this big heat do anyway but the point is is now that we heat is not allowing FRS to get down there in addition it's not just heat Doms right it's upper level low there's a little low pressure system system out there by the Bahamas so that could form but up until 2 days ago we didn't have anything no seedlings and the last one's tropical wave and there really hasn't been a tropical wave although I'll show you just to the west of the cape Ro Islands there's a a you know little bit of thunderstorm activity it's it's been ripped apart but there was a tropical wave yesterday there it's the first one of the season so they're finally seedlings that are starting to appear Val but the bottom line is without any seedlings you can't have a storm yeah well something about the uh Noah forecast is that it does it's very similar to what the European model is saying and also uh yeah what Colorado state is predicting as well so the fact that we're seeing that they're in agreement uh also is a good indication that that's probably what we we might see right around 22 23 storms I I I see no reason to to to doubt that at all I'm I'm in complete agreement on those numbers and the reason why I say it's not just them it's uh the UK UK met met service or the UK meteorology Service uh pen University of Pennsylvan has 33 storms in their statistical forecast that's probably not likely to happen but it goes to statistical models are probably can't deal with this anomalous situation and what I mean by that is it's just so strange to see what I'm about to show you across the Atlantic Ocean the statistical models it's almost out of there it's like something they've never seen before and so when you try to do stats on this the statistical model comes back with results that are that are almost shocking and maybe not believable just because you know it's rare that You' never seen anything like this I mean record territory there record territory there record territory there so the result of that is um and the fact that we're going to have a Lin um the result of that is it just feeds into what the statistical models look for and everything is ringing red right it's an alarm and the other thing is here so this is a classic pattern that we look for uh Val for you know very hyperactive hurricane seasons and that is where is the warm Waters not just is it warm but where is the warm water and this is it this classic horseshoe pattern where the warm water is in the North Atlantic and then the canary current down off the Canary Islands and then making its way down into the Tropical Atlantic well it's exactly it's literally out of a textbook you could put this yeah in a textbook and this would be what we would say would be the classic hurricane season so that's the what the reason why the national uh or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOA is saying it's going to be an extraordinary likely going to be an extraordinary hurricane season yeah yeah lot indicators there yeah very good so uh moving on when do you suggest when do you think that we are going to be transitioned 100% into linia probably about a month and a half two months or so okay you know and and that'll coincide with the beginning of what is peak of hurricane season okay um so we should be in linia by then uh and and it's a good question because I have this graphic to show you the difference and I'll pull this up full so everyone can see it there is a market difference between the number of systems or in this case hurricanes that we have during an elino versus a linia clearly you can see there a lot more storms during linia but look interestingly in an elino look at the Western Gulf nothing nothing and that's because in an elino with the warm water in the Pacific causes stronger winds in the upper atmosphere which buff at the Western Atlantic Basin so you generally have less storms not no storms but less storms and the case of the bay cichi in the western Gulf during the last 40 years in linia we've never had a hurricane um now in linia it's almost double the number of hurricanes not quite but almost double in fact I think I have another way to show this to you but with a bar graph so in terms of name storms we have about 59% more during a lania which again we're going to have this summer during a uh during uh um excuse me for hurricanes during a linia we have about 81% more hurricanes and major hurricanes about double wow about double uh for major hurricanes during a Lin so the phase uh and by the way I should mention to everyone these are natural climate cycles elino and Lino this is not this is doesn't take into account climate change it happens every couple years we switch from elino linia elino linia right we hope to be in elino every year right because during Hurricane Season it helps us but but the warming of the overall the sea surface temperatures that could be attributed to climate change it just so happens that it's coinciding with that's right L the change in Lenin and last year it was the opposite right last year and I'll bring this back up last last year we had alino but we still had record warm uh ocean temperatures in the Atlantic some people called it a Black Swan only problem is it's even more of a Black Swan this year so two years of a Black Swan is not a Black Swan it's not a coincidence so looking at at at this graphic and I'll pull it up with both of us there um there's a couple things happening first of all yes the background Baseline has warmed the Atlantic and the gulf and Caribbean it's warmed around 2 degrees Fahrenheit in the past 40 or 50 years or so but then on top of that dur after an elino and during an elino we tend to cont conate heat in the tropics not just in the Pacific Ocean but also in the Atlantic so there's some of that going on where natural climate patterns are concentrating the extra warmth in the tropics too so it's not just climate change it's also just the distribution of so honestly everything's just lining up like that this year kind a perfect storm so having more storms means that it um increases our chances of making landfall because even though you know last year we did see a lot of storms a lot of them we called fish storms um however this could uh increase the the chance of us uh getting hit is that right yeah and we know that during Lanas and Lanas there's a difference in the amount of landfalls that we get so before I bring up the graphic or wait I have a Graphic up already hold on hold on don't look let show me why not didn't see that you already gave it away I'm buzzing you for not paying attention I'm sorry I'm looking there's I have two screens in front of me I'm going to have to talk to J about this there's too many screens know but Jeff is actually trying to host the show he's also producing it as he's going along so hats off to to je yes I'm only talking hon I'm and anybody who knows me knows that I can only do one I can't walk in chew gum I'm good I'm really good at focusing on one thing but I can't walk in chw gum so this you're honest about that yeah oh I'm honest about everything I mean honestly I no I'm not holding back I don't know why I said about that yeah about everything but um so let's talk about it before I show you the graphic Al Nino versus El Nino and I'm going to show it full yeah um one other thing stands out about this year is that our seasonal computer models uh this spring have been forecasting a storm track into the Caribbean and towards Florida okay and is it going to be accurate are they going to be right that peak season we're going to see these tracks into the Caribbean and towards Florida well let's look to last year the seasonal computer models last year were forecasting an average storm track over Bermuda and you know what they were exactly right I have no reason to doubt that they're going to be right this year that the average storm track is going to be a lot closer to home I say home meaning Tampa just home meaning the United States or the Caribbean or Central America okay so let me bring this up now this from a friend of mine his name is Steve Bowen uh he is with gallager insurance uh and they of course look at this very closely because um you know it it means a lot for insurance this is not just an estimate of of of of landfalls in the United States it's also a measure of how much damage there's going to be right so if you look at elino we've had 15 uh land falling hurricanes during elino on the left side yeah then on the right that's linia there's been 50 so the amount of landfalls of hurricanes goes up by like almost no it's more than three times three times okay during a neutral it's not very different a neutral means that we don't have alinia we don't have linia it's just kind of a neutral year where water temperatures are about normal right uh it's also overactive in those years so it doesn't matter if it's a neutral or linia we still see lot more about three times the amount of landfalling hurricanes in in the Southeastern Eastern along the east coast and the amount of damage is also exponentially or a lot higher during uh linas and neutral years than it is during elino so again everything uh Val is coming together uh for what looks to be a very active and I would say hyperactive hurricane season now there's a definition to hyperactive and it it it's related to the amount of accumulated Cyclone energy and the amount of accumulated Cyclone energy is just how much energy is used up and dissipated by all the storms over the Basin over the year we just add it up one storm let's and the way it works is okay is a storm it's a cat 3 it lasts for 20 days all right how much energy does a cat 3 produce in a given day and then and then multiply that by 20 days the cat one it lasts for two days you know add so anyway hyperactive what hyperactive is not being used the word hyperactive to describe what I'm I'm using it because I think it's going to be but it just depends upon how much accumulated energy there is at the end of the season and I don't know exactly what the definition is it's somewhere over 200 units of Ace but most of these forecast are forecast so the average was something like 120 units I think that's the average and the forecasts are for 2 to 250 I think so I think it's going to be a hyperactive hurricane season ter I want to talk about uh the trajectory of some of these storms especially going into the month of June okay uh specifically because we know that uh it tends to get a little bit more active in the Gulf of Mexico mhm and uh that could be very close to home for us here in Florida that's right and it's good because we'd rather have a storm in June than we would in August or September right yeah because you know obv are all the eyes so that's right the eyes it's the most retired storm name maybe if we just got rid of the letter I we could eliminate our chance of being hit by did you say that like getting rid of the number 13 in elevator are you saying that's genius I think it's genius they got rid of the 13 floor let's get rid of the letter eye completely and we won't have to worry about hurricane lall I agree if you agree with Jeff leave me a message on the Facebook page so that I can let them know but let me bring this back up tropical development during June you asked about right okay so the reason why most tropical systems form close to land or in the northern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this time of year because they normally form on Old fronts it's also the reason why so far we haven't seen any development because again we have this big heat Dome across Mexico and and Central America and it's not allowing old fronts to get into the Gulf now that could change next week oh and by the way one other thing that I wanted to put a graphic on it I didn't I meant to do it and I forgot what's that but so this large scale climate pattern that traverses the Indian Ocean the Pacific Ocean and all the way across the Atlantic Ocean we can actually track that because we can see where the air is rising where it's sinking well this big air mass of rising air which is making its way across the Pacific will be right on top of the Caribbean Gulf of Mexico in the Atlantic in the first starting at the end of the first week of June into the second week of June so theoretically if we don't see anything formed before then that will be the time when we probably end up with the threats of of over organized storms or actual tropical storms yeah the second week of of June the second so that's about two to three weeks from now is when we're going to start to see everything kind of activate and that's because we can now this is how sophisticated our computer bottles have become we can track these these big very nuanced and kind of um subtle areas of rising air that make their way that periodically make their way across basins and we know there's going to be one of them across the Atlantic uh the second starting the second week of June very good I'm making a note of that and then we can uh we can go back and see if I was right or I was wrong okay I'm making a note of that okay good stuff yeah so like what you you were saying here basically um they form with old fronts right that's what you were saying storms would most of the time this time of year when storms form they form on Old fronts uh and then when we get closer to August and September they form on tropical waves on tropical W you know and they can form on tropical waves earlier in the year too but it happens a lot more past like August 10th August 15th or so that's why things really start to heat up you know it takes a little while for the background of the Atlantic to moisten up okay let me just bring you back up here couple things first of all at the beginning of the Season we tend to have more dust off of the Sahara Desert that prohibits uh tropical storm formation usually an atmosphere that has dust has about 50% less moisture in it you need moisture in the atmosphere to form storms right that's number one number two it takes a while for the Atlantic not only to lose its dust but also increase its on average moisture content that doesn't happen until about August where we see you know the amount of moisture content in the atmosphere in the tropics go up so that's another reason why at the beginning of the Season we tend to see not that many storms things don't really get going also wind shear tends to be a little stronger in June M uh and even July in fact you know what's interesting Val because we don't okay this is this you're going to find interesting let me go back to this graphic and bring it up and then we can start taking some viewer uh we have a lot of questions and comments I'm going to explain this real quick and then we'll take a VI your questions so we tend to have less systems in July than we do in June why is that why it's because fronts can get to us in May and June but they can't get to the tropics in in July right fronts are synoptic they're wintertime phenomena they separate cold and warm air so when we lose the cold air MH the fronts can't get into the Gulf of Mexico anymore and once they can't get into the Gulf anymore then there's no seedlings to form storms anymore and so we we end up seeing let me do this because I'm Italian I have to do this we see an uptick in June and then a little down tick in July and then an uptick in August yeah so but you're saying that uh because of this heat Dome that's right over us right now we're not seeing that what if the heat Dome sticks around for the first uh two weeks of June then we well you know I have an hour I have an hour I have a I I have a I have I can look into the future yeah and and uh and and and see that actually the heat Dome is going to weaken over Central America and Mexico by the end of next week and we will we're going to see some impacts here in Florida where we'll get a little drier air not going to cool down but we'll dry so I mean but but that could end up being the prevailing pattern value make a good point we might see it bounce back real quick right and or it may reposition itself over and you know what it may do by the end of next week in about 10 days it looks like it's going to reposition itself as a heat Dome over the Western us so it may oscillate it may stay over the Western us it may head back down to Mexico and Central America so we don't know exactly what's going to happen there okay well I'm going to start taking some comments because we have a lot here let's see um some folks let's see if they have any questions I'm gonna bring up this graphic a lot of people saying thank you WFLA news producers for providing this format yeah and again I'm not here to to to scare anyone at all I I would just say to everyone you know it's better to be safe than sorry this is going to be an active hurricane season what I think is most concerning about this hurricane season is not necessarily the number of Storms remember we had 20 storms last year um so was a lot of storms but most of them were weak um there were some strong ones this year it's going to be the opposite this year I think we'll probably see a lot of storms again maybe a few more than last year but I think that we're going to see a bunch of very strong storms so that's we're most concerned about again not trying to scare everyone we just want everybody to be prepared and what I'll say one more time to everyone and I've said this a bunch of times on the year is that if you follow the instructions from emergency managers and from your meteorologists on television when you watch you are probably going to be just fine in a storm people are always worried about obviously their their life in a storm and it's dangerous so follow the directions of your emergency managers and your meteorologist but what concerns me even more oftentimes is afterwards like how long does it take a city and a and a and a person to recover from a storm you know to get their house and their Affairs back in order that's honestly what I worry about most yeah but again in terms of you know preparing for the storm as long as you're prepared and you listen to the instructions from emergency managers and meteorologists you are likely to be just fine so we're not here to scare you we're just here to get you prepared for hurricanes okay so I have a Joe ganzel senior he's asking if Cape Coral is likely to see hurricanes early in the summer season there's no way of knowing and it's an interesting question because people often say well we haven't seen any activity yet it's been a quiet hurricane season so far and of course hurricane season hasn't begun yet but in uh 17 we've had 17 systems pre-season systems in the past 20 years so we've been generally getting a lot of these systems that happened before June 1st we haven't seen it yet this year so that begs the question if it's been quiet early this season is it going to stay quiet later in season and there is in fact no correlation between a quiet early season and a unfortunately and a quiet late season is a storm going to hit Cape Coral that is not something I can answer but boy do I hope not because that poor area has been hit so hard over the past 20 years shout out to Southwest Florida okay uh this is a comment it's from Kevin Bower and he says uh he commented on somebody else's comment saying that it's a mistake getting rid of the number 13 I guess he meant uh on the elevator because Jesus is the 13th disciple okay well that's why he I have no don't want us to get rid of the eyes I guess but I don't know why they got rid of the 13th floor on elevators I don't know the answer I think they're yeah but uh just to take it back into hurricane season what we're talking about I don't think they're going to get rid of the they're not going to get rid of the eyes although they may run out of the letter i because every time they every time they retire an ey name they need to come up with another new new ey name name ey name so and yeah it is it is hard to come by I mean there aren't that many eyes very good let's see what else well I I I am seeing a lot of comments here from folks that are saying you know that uh scare tactic and they always say the same thing every year but but if you watched me last year I didn't scare you right if you're watching me last year I said it doesn't look like this is going to be a bad hurricane season yeah uh you should be prepared anyway but I think you know this is going to be a better hurricane season so I wasn't scaring you and I'm not trying to scare you and by the way I'm not scared see that's that's the case I I I actually am very I always say this I'm very intrigued by the science behind this uh and uh but we're not trying to scare you I mean honestly if if a hurricane never hit ever again in our lifetimes jubilent okay cuz I live here too I you know I don't want my life ended I mean I'm so we're not trying to Hype anything I don't get paid to Hype I promise you that okay yeah so basically are you just trying to say that uh we just have to be prepared yeah well so let me bring up some just you know things that you can do right now there's not much you can do obviously uh not everything you do everything before storm hits Jasmine cely wants to know about Daytona Beach yeah these are all good questions but honestly there's no way of knowing I will talk a little bit about Daytona Beach in a second and so hang on just give me a second let me get through these hurricane preparedness things and then um and then we'll talk about it because that is an interesting question I have an very interesting answer about Daytona Beach okay okay we'll hold off to okay so hurricane preparedness just a couple things to do right now know what your evacuation zone is this way if an emergency manager tells you you're in evacuation whatever you know where you live that's number one um you know where you're going to go do you have a friend or a family member you're going to go to in Orlando or Gainesville or wherever Miami know where you're going to go you know um and also know that it's not in an evacuation Zone that could be comparable to your evacuation Zone and also just get your supplies if you can get them early if you're at Target or Walmart or wherever get your hurricane supplies make sure you have your documents in a kit so that they're protected you know maybe in some type of plastic covering uh so that you know they're not going to get wet okay we got more questions okay so let me so let me get back to answering the question about Daytona Beach it turns out that there's only one place that's less vulnerable to hurricanes in the Tampa Bay area in the Southeast and that is the space coast in not the Space Coast north of the Space Coast out towards Jacksonville because because the the coastline kind of juts in like that and so because that they get a lot less uh hurricanes than most places because of and so geography plays an important part just like geography helps us in the Bay Area it also helps areas from Daytona Beach North to Jacksonville and and you had that information from a study you did last year with Columbia right yeah that was part of it okay Carolyn uh masteron says new to living in a town home for this season is it safer to leave the car out or in a garage I mean obviously you can put something inside it be better okay uh Carrie Glover when can we expect to ramp up uh the ramp up of the storms to begin I think you did mention that but if you can go ahead and I think we'll see a jolt of activity the second week of June uh and as soon as that that favorable environment Fades it'll probably go quiet again starting sometime at the end of June or beginning of July it may be quiet for most of July like it usually is but that's not always the case sometimes especially in years like this we get a storm and then everything really ramps up around August 10th or 15th okay we have a question from Nicole will will the East Coast or the West Coast be affected more there's no way of knowing for sure I would say if my money is on South Florida as being an area that's under a little greater risk this year because of the trajectory of hurricanes from our seasonal climate models uh this spring so I would say South Florida is probably and and maybe the East Coast at least for the first half of the Season laurianne says that she appreciates uh your education on these episodes thank you uh tell her thank you very much oh she can hear me thank you very much um we okay there's a lot more questions here guys I'm going to have Jeff go onto our Facebook page and uh maybe you can go through them and if you see anything that might uh be a teachable opportunity if you want to answer some of those questions because we do have a lot of comments and questions and I do a lot of barell bonuses on the AAL so if you want to send a question to us send it to weather wfla.com again weather wfla.com I use them they're sometimes I get great questions I and I can make it into a segment so it's great we're running out of time yeah okay we got to go all right so let me just do one more thing if you want to uh check out the forecast from Noah and some of the reasons why we think it's going to be probably a very active season uh you can go right here to our website wfla.com and you can find it on either the homepage or you can click on weather the weather section and climate classroom and I think that you'll get the information you need in addition you can listen to this on YouTube we're going to package this up send it there and Spotify as a podcast and also Apple podcast as well so I want to thank the lovely and talented Val Simpson thank you Val as usual for joining me today thank you always a pleasure until next time and I want to thank everyone at home for joining me as well uh for this uh episode of climate classroom we'll see you again next week on the climate classroom thank you very much everybody watch or listen to Jeff's climate classroom powered by armor view window and door on WFLA social media platforms and find Jeff's climate reports on wf.com [Music]