Tropical Update: PTC 6 forms in the southern Gulf

[Music] [Music] [Music] well good Sunday afternoon the time is 4:52 Central Time we're here to bring you the latest on the tropics it had to happen sometime and here we are it's potential tropical Cyclone 6 now it was formerly invest 91 just a few hours ago now has been upgraded to PTC 6 from the National Hurricane Center so this is a current look at it with our satellite observation here check out out it's or check it out rather it's kind of disorganized at this point we're seeing this large area of showers and storms in the southern Gulf of Mexico for the Bay of ciche so this is where we've been tracking this system over the last couple of days it has now strengthened a little bit with its wind speeds now gusting at 60 MPH sustained winds at 50 mph now PTC 6 is still lacks a well-defined center so there's no Center of circulation to track just yet the NHC is investigating this and they're continuing to you know compile data on that so we're still waiting on a center to form and it looks like it will form getting into tomorrow so strengthening is certainly on the horizon likely to become tropical storm Fran scine by Monday by tomorrow so this is what we have going on now there has a cone now initiated for this and getting into the next several days this is going to change up since there's no Center of circulation yet this cone will probably shift a little bit maybe more to the east or to the West in the next couple of days so still waiting on that Center of circulation to form PTC 6 now expected to become a tropical storm though tomorrow maintaining its strength as a tropical storm in the warm Gulf Waters getting into Tuesday hugging right along the Texas coast again this is the initial cone here cone here showing that it does strengthen to a category 1 Hurricane by Wednesday so landfall expected somewhere either in East Texas or Western Louisiana sometime Wednesday or early Thursday again this is the initial cone forecast calling for it to strengthen to a category 1 storm by later Wednesday or early Thursday so again this is something we'll be watching very closely in the coming days just want to bring you the latest on what's expected with this then it will be moving Inland getting into Thursday and Friday and then into the heart of the country later in the week so this is what we have at this point really what we're expecting here in our part of the gulf some unsettled weather for several days Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday will bring us kind of that soggy stretch some Gusty winds and some coastal flooding so we'll get into the more details or more specific details with that for the New Orleans area in a minute but we'll be talking now what it kind of looks like at this point so like I mentioned kind of lacking that well-defined Center but since it's so close to land that's why the n H C has called it PTC 6 it's initiating these advisories because it's so close to Mexico and it will continue to bring impacts to parts of the Gulf Coast getting into the next couple of days so this is what we have the strongest winds placed on the southwest side of the system and getting into tomorrow it is expected to take that better structure that better form and tomorrow we'll probably be calling this tropical storm Francine so right now we are sitting under this nice cold front in our part of the gulf so we have been dry today but getting into tomorrow moisture will start to creep back in to the Gulf of Mexico and or through the Gulf of Mexico northward into the Gulf Coast so Southeast Louisiana south Mississippi moisture will start to creep in starting tomorrow but we're watching down here for the southern Gulf of Mexico to see what eventually will become Francine will do this is the spaghetti models so going into the next couple of days this is what we have getting into Wednesday still hugging the Texas Coastline by Wednesday drifting up to the north at first and then it's expected to make that to that turn to the Northeast on Wednesday again landfall either in East Texas or Western Louisiana Wednesday or early Thursday this is the initial forecast but something to kind of hang on to here and make your preps now to let you know we do have some rough weather coming our way during the midweek time frame it looks like a big rain maker for us there is just going to be a whole slug of moisture coming into Southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi Tuesday Wednesday Thursday big rain maker for us more soaking rain and more flooding rain expected here at home so let's just kind of walk you through the next couple days really let's focus on the impact since the cone can still change you know the intensity can still change we'll just really focus on the impacts for Southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi so the rest of Sunday quiet it's a nice rest of the day we have tomorrow also for Monday trending mostly dry but I mentioned that moisture in the Gulf of Mexico starts to creep up into the coastline starts to travel a little bit farther to the north so tomorrow I think we'll see a couple spotty showers and storms for our Coastal spots but Monday largely looking like a dry day so tomorrow trending mostly dry aside from a couple spotty showers and storms for our Coastal locations getting into tomorrow afternoon and in the evening Tuesday is when we start to see the influences of this tropical disturbance so PTC 6 starts to bring some more moisture in our Direction so Tuesday is when the tropical downpours begin so tomorrow if if you know your house floods really easily you'll live along the coastline it wouldn't be a bad idea tomorrow to maybe pick up some sandbags doesn't mean you'll definitely need them no reason to panic but if you know that your house is really susceptible to flooding and you live along the coastline that's something to kind of keep in mind because we could see again those flooding rains Tuesday Wednesday Thursday and also maybe some coastal flooding for some of our locations so that is something to keep in mind for us nothing to stress too much about we've been through way worse the storm is not anticipated to blow up into anything uh unimaginable and and major but again it could be a cat one strength when it makes landfall in Western Louisiana or east Texas by late Wednesday early Thursday so focusing on the impacts Tuesday we'll start to see some passing downpours during the day maybe some heavy showers here and there Tuesday through the morning and into the afternoon so we could maybe see some localized Street flooding on Tuesday especially given all the rain we got over the last few days flooding won't be as difficult to achieve and that's something left to watch as the winds kind of pick up midweek with this could we get some maybe down trees some power outages it's possible we get that even with a summertime storm so just want to throw it out there it's it's a possibility for the midweek time frame maybe because the ground is so saturated flooding can be done a little bit more readily and maybe we could see some of those weak trees go down if we get some strong wind gusts working in there Wednesday and Thursday something to kind of keep in mind for a couple days this week with this rough weather expected so Tuesday is when things kind of start Tuesday is not going to be that bad passing downpours Tuesday a little Breezy especially at the coast I don't think we'll see the roughest of the weather until Wednesday and Thursday so Wednesday and Thursday Wednesday in particular that's going to be when we see the most rain and probably the strongest winds and the coastal flooding so this is the European forecast of course the big Global model honing in on this so like I mentioned now still lacking a defined Center just a PTC 6 it's gusting winds up to 60 M hour so the winds are there but this is what we have Wednesday so fast forwarding through the next couple of days it is expected to strengthen it's sitting over the very warm Gulf strengthening up to a tropical storm maybe category 1 Hurricane by Wednesday so this is again one model run we know how these change up a little bit especially as we get better data in in the coming hours and the coming days so this is what we have European model Wednesday evening landfall looking like maybe Western Louisiana again this will change up a little bit but keep in mind our part of the gulf Southeast Louisiana south Mississippi we're on the Eastern side of this we're going to get the rain we could see maybe some quick tropical spin up tornadoes very small chance for that but you can never rule that out when you're on the Eastern side of this you could see maybe those quick spin-ups we'll have to watch those especially for our Coastal spots getting into Wednesday and early Thursday maybe some quick tropical tornadoes some brief spin-ups with that plus the Heavy Rain the Gusty winds that will begin on Wednesday and some coastal flooding some moderate coastal flooding expected so this is what we have into Wednesday Wednesday the the r of the weather coming in that lasts until late Wednesday through early Thursday again the timing can still change with this as well this is just the preliminary initial forecast Thursday still dealing with some rain and rough weather early in the day but it looks like it'll be darting off to the north along the Mississippi River by later Thursday in the afternoon and then we'll see some drier air wrapping in behind that so the second half of Thursday Friday into next weekend dry nicer days GFS other big U Global model of course pretty good con sensus here that this landfall will be happening later Wednesday maybe early Thursday GFS a little bit I think farther to the West slightly but it is very close so that's good the models are in good agreement but still again things can change don't cling onto this forecast since it's the pre preliminary one that we're putting out here so Wednesday night landfall Western Louisiana looking like could again maybe be in East Texas but models indicating a Western Louisiana landfall we're on the sloppy side of this like for a lack of a better terminology rainy weather for us Wednesday rough weather Wednesday into early Thursday and then this pulls up to the north along the Mississippi River the rest of Thursday then we have the drier air wrapping in behind it so it looks like the second half of the day Thursday well we remain Breezy we'll start to see drier air filtering in and nicer days for Thursday the second half of Thursday at least but Friday into next weekend that's when we see some calmer days some calmer weather so rainfall totals areawide over the next few days anywhere from 4 to 6 Ines of rain is expected from this system Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday so 4 to six Ines of rain spread out over those three days but we can see some locally higher amounts of rain that can induce the street flooding and like I said we just had so much wet weather the last three days this is not going to be good for us for some of our locations that could see just pretty um easily flooded streets and easily uh flooded bodies of water so our small creeks and streams some of our waterways our Rivers we have to watch for this because of the additional rain that we'll see from PTC 6 Tuesday Wednesday Thursday so the biggest thing I think this is going to be a rain maker a lot of soggy wet weather Tuesday Wednesday Thursday make sure you drive carefully you avoid those flooded roadways you bring rain gear with you and we just kind of get through this thing it's it's this time of the year it's the peak of hurricane season and we do have a system coming in our Direction so let's quickly look at the wind gust so this is the wind gust forecast so not doing much now then we see this strengthening this tightening this better organization through tomorrow that's when it will be named Francine and then we get into Tuesday still hugging the Mexico Coastline the Texas Coastline just offshore of the coast for Tuesday but wind starting to pick up for them a little Breezy for them winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour here at home New Orleans area make it a little breey Tuesday we'll see winds coming in from the East this is when we could maybe get those the minor coastal flooding because of the sustained East wind pattern Tuesday and Wednesday so could see some minor coastal flooding beginning for the high tides on Tuesday in our part of the gulf also winds starting to pick up for our Coastal spots maybe gusting 20 25 miles per hour on Tuesday so it gets Breezy Tuesday we'll have the passing tropical downpours but the roughest of the weather again coming in Wednesday into early Thursday and then we take this farther out in time this is Tuesday night still seeing the storm turn to the north Northeast so that's what we'll be watching watching how much can it turn because exactly where it makes landfall this week will really depend on how much of the impacts that we see from this the extent of the impacts at least so this is a sustained wind speed forecast for the next couple of days winds picking up and then going into Wednesday taking that turn or curve to the north Northeast these are sustained winds so Western Louisiana seeing those strong sustained winds picking up 50 60 mus 50 60 plus miles per hour probably even higher than that if we're talking cat one strength we're in the 70 80 range for uh sustained winds right in the center of the storm so Wednesday this is what we have Wednesday evening again that's when the storm really looks like it will be pushing Inland and then for us the windy weather in our part of the gulf Southeast Louisiana south Mississippi New Orleans strong winds expected Wednesday especially for the coastline and for our Western most areas so strong winds expected Wednesday but check out these sustained winds for New Orleans 20 30 milph Coastal spots will'll probably see sustained winds closer to 40 miles hour um getting into Thursday this is early like midnight so late Wednesday early Thursday strong winds spreading Inland Gusty winds continuing for us into early Thursday and then as the system pulls away things start to calm down the second half of the day on Thursday so again roughest of the weather coming in Wednesday Thursday sorry I'm being repetitive but I just want you to know the impacts that's of course the most important thing does it get a name who cares at this point what do I what's going to happen to me what's going to happen where I live that's really the most important thing so let's take a closer look at sustained wind speeds for us so this is Tuesday again like I mentioned getting a little Breezy during the day Tuesday nothing crazy just yet maybe winds getting a little stronger for the coast on Tuesday Wednesday that's when it I'll call it a windy day for us sustained winds coming in from the East this is when we could see again the coastal flooding for our Eastward facing shorelines even our south southern facing Shor line so really our Coastal spots can be dealing with some coastal flooding for Wednesday because our winds will be coming mostly from the east Southeast so that's why we'll be seeing maybe some moderate coastal flooding these are our sustained winds around 20 25 miles hour maybe 30 35 M hour sustained winds for the coast on Wednesday and then we get into early Thursday so this is like the middle of the night when the storm looks like it will be moving Inland sustained winds maybe 30 40 miles per hour at the coast 25 35 miles per hour Inland so it's just going to be a windy late Wednesday a windy early Thursday and then that system pulls away winds will start to calm down getting into Thursday afternoon still a little Breezy though the first part of the day Thursday Thursday night that's when things kind of wind down for us as it looks now again the timing with this can still change but let's talk more about the impacts this is going to be a weather impact alert day for Tuesday Wednesday Thursday because we will see flooding rain tropical downpours coming in waves starting Tuesday really picking up an intensity Wednesday and then lasting through early Thursday Wednesday is going to be a nasty day just a lot of rain just kind of a nuisance when you want to go from point A to point B driving is going to be a real pain because we'll see those passing tropical downpours we'll probably see some Street flooding during the day on Wednesday but really Tuesday Wednesday into early Thursday could see some Street flooding across the area also our bodies of water probably going to rise a little bit because we've gotten so much rain over the last several days so this will kind of exacerbate the flooding issue when it comes to the smaller bodies of water or small Creek streams and we know how that goes when we pick up a lot of rain also it's going to be windy so it will be Breezy Tuesday winds strong on Wednesday into early Thursday wind gusts may get up to 40 to 50 plus miles per hour at the coast so maybe we're talking wind gust up to 60 MPH for the immediate Coastline Inland New Orleans Metro wind gust probably 40 45 miles hour we'll be honing in on the details of this in the next you know subsequent forecast but just plan for some strong winds across the area on Wednesday through early Thursday the strongest of those gusts happening for our Coastal spots with that we'll see coastal flooding I think of 1 to 3 feet above normal high tide could it be 1 to four feet maybe it just depends on where the storm looks like it will be making landfall so coastal flooding is expected across the area um that's something to certainly keep in mind if again like I mentioned before if you know that you're pretty susceptible to flooding not a bad idea to pick up maybe some sandbags tomorrow while tomorrow is going to be dry and a quiet day so a recap again weather impact alert for Tuesday Wednesday especially and then through early Thursday it's why there's Aster there because that's when the roughest weather comes in Wednesday Thursday plan for heavy rain this is going to be a rain maker if you can take away one thing it's just going to be a soggy couple days heavy rain for us expected Gusty winds and we could watch for some Street flooding and coastal flooding plus just our bodies of water running a little bit higher um none of our our bodies of water in in Southeast Louisiana are in a flood stage we're not in a flood stage at all but that's something we'll have to monitor if you know where you live there's like a creek that floods pretty easily and it's kind of running high from the last couple of days just something to kind of keep in mind that might be something we'll have to deal with during the midweek time frame always watch for straight flooding when we get these systems coming in and of course the coastal flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal high tide Tuesday Wednesday Thursday so I'll leave you with the 7-day forecast again tomorrow is going to be quiet could see a couple spotty storms tomorrow humidity coming back tomorrow mid 80s and then Tuesday Wednesday Thursday that's when PTC 6 which will probably be France scen by tomorrow so either tropical storm Francine or hurricane Francine coming into the Gulf Coast bringing us some impacts Tuesday Wednesday Thursday by the second half of Thursday as it looks now we'll be drying up Friday into next weekend dry nice quiet days to clear out from this system so thanks for tuning in we'll be back in a few hours with the latest update from the National Hurricane Center to see if there's any shifts in the track make sure you do check back in online we'll be back also for the evening news tonight at 10 o' so thanks again for tuning in we'll be back in a few hours [Music]