all right folks it's Joe Duffy with a free pick for September the 1st your grandmas Sports handicapper you know what I got to have some uh news and notes in a moment by the way I do have two winners for Thursday night two premium bets a side and a total in college football plus I actually have a major league baseball run line as well at offshore insiders.com I going to give you a free pick for tonight I like uh Penn State minus the 3 and 1 12 Purdue now look this did uh open up also at 3 and a half there is a sizable Divergence in the betting split 62% of the bets are on the road favorite of Penn State yet 67% of the cash is on the home underdog now uh granted a lot of handicappers would say this implies a sharp bet on Purdue but we're not always going to go with where the sharp money is going sometimes the sharp money is wrong think this is a textbook case of a team overachieved last year Purdue definitely outperform while very few teams underperformed last year more than Penn State you remember Penn State was a dark horse a lot of people thought they could give uh Ohio State a run for their money in winning the Big 10 and I've discovered look I've been at this for more than three decades 1988 was the first year that I sold picks professionally was handicapping before that and one of the best ways to handicap Sports is you go with an underachieving team the previous year or under an overachieving team the previous year this really applies in both college football and basketball professional sports as well but really college sports and this a textbook case of a matchup of both of these teams now the nitty Lions do have a year under their belt under Mike urtic who is a cou a PA grat by the way I do expect a sizable Improvement on the offensive side the ball from Penn State yeah you know over a returning starters can be a little bit overrated Purdue does have the edge there at 16 to10 but again I do expect a little regression to the mean and reg regression to or towards the mean can mean a team not just regressing but also Pro progressing to the mean although technically the the term is regression uh to the mean or regression uh you towards the mean or whatever anyway the favorite was N9 and two in Penn State's contest last year meaning the better team generally does cover their games the oddsmakers make it clear the Penn State is the superior team here and you're going to ask well wait a minute and of course you always want to shop around but uh do you want to go with the lower juice and buy it down to or do you want to go the lower juice at three and a half or buy it down the three now I'm not big in the buying a half a point I do believe that Penn State definitely covers here they win by at least four so my free winning Pick for you is to go with Penn State let's take a look at some news and notes West Virginia and Pittsburgh now a lot of you out there really do believe in betting big dogs and big rivalries this is resumption and one of the most heated rivalries in America the Backyard Brawl uh I've disproven that I'm not you know sometimes I like to take that I'll report you decide approach but for those of you who really are into uh you know big dogs and big rivalries this is a fairly big Underdog some people like it to be double digits with this is not West Virginia quarterback was considered a blue chipper and of course his uh ceiling is uh very high the kid from Georgia and Daniels a kid from Georgia and um and uh USC as well fellow USC transfer ke slos takes over for Pittsburgh but West Virginia does have the better quarterback here remember Pittsburgh is losing serious Talent on offense led by their Star Quarterback Kenny picket picket is one of the the best quarterbacks there and again I know they've had a a guy who in the NFL Hall of Fame I didn't say necessarily the absolute best quarterback but picket was very vers he's going to be very tough to uh replace the Panthers with a new offensive coordinator and offense Ball State and Tennessee the all's second year in a high Tempo offense they should adjust points are going to be pretty easy to come come by Ball State though breaking in a new quarterback Ball State is 18- six though against the spread the power six teams their last loss of 35 or more was back in 2018 so a lot of people do think this game uh will be close and you know some people might even call the well not really it's some a lot of people would argue that Ball State maybe has a lot more motivation to keep this close but Tennessee is a team you know they they've had some uh sanctions against them and if you know maybe Tennessee could be in a statement mode here so I don't think there's any really intangible Advantage uh some systems here college football underdogs of three and a half or more playing their second game versus an opponent in their first game 8873 and one since 1990 this will favor this week utap Wyoming Utah State and North Texas meanwhile college football underdogs in their first game of the year versus an opponent playing their second gamer 159 122 and6 since 2008 this will favor Appalachian State Texas State and Ohio this week please if you like this information I ask you to share it like comment and most importantly subscribe if you're watching this on YouTube we send this out to a bunch of different places or if you're listening to it on the podcast subscribe there we appreciate your support make sure you do follow us on Twitter at offshore Insider again note the website is offshore Insider Ms with an S but no s because of the character limitations on Twitter at just offour Insider but please add the S when you visit our website offshore insiders.com