hello and welcome to Showdown breakdown Thursday night week two kickoff Josh Allen at Tua tugga vioa to discuss all angles of tonight's game from a down perspective I'm joined by The Showdown Bros you know and Love Cody M and Sam Brock Cody how's it going today I'm good it's it's actually been a fun start to the season as far as Island games are concerned we've had a ton of a ton of really good games a ton of high totals ton of good quarterback play and I think uh we'll see much of the same here at Bills and Dolphins yeah the best games have been Island games the regular games have been total dust balls but the island games Cody has gotten a treat here with The Showdown stuff Sam how's it going today uh going pretty well I didn't get fired after debuting last week and somehow I was invited back so I'd say going pretty well Sam is back in the mix yes indeed we'll go over some Sim stuff later uh on in the show one thing I wanted to hit on at the top here Cody is kind of what's going on with the way DraftKings is pricing Showdown it just it stuck out to me right away that quarterbacks have been depressed in their price and that's certainly changed a lot here year I don't know Cody it's I I know it's only been a few of these big ones so far but any takeaways on macro's Showdown strategy considering how DraftKings has changed how they're pricing these slates yeah I think we should preface by saying we only are what four now five slates in if we want to include this one five Prime Time slates that is but it does kind of seem like at least at this point the the macro Trend at least the one that we can kind of take away from here is that quarterback pricing is is really depressed and I think in most cases if you just look back at the same players from the previous year and we've had a lot of quarterbacks that we've had on Showdown slates I'm talking Lamar Jackson Patrick Mahomes Jaylen Herz Jordan love now we've got Tua and Josh Allen these are teams that are heavily featured in Prime Time games we have a decent sample here to look back on even from just last year I think in most cases the quarterbacks same quarterback the following year is 600800 ,000 dollar cheaper than they would have been last year which I think is really important for for cash game contest specifically anything close to an optimal lineup these quarterbacks just look like such better plays because they're a little bit cheaper they're easier to stack the the floor is safer the ceiling Still Remains pretty high and it just sets up as a situation where in any type of optimal format the quarterbacks just grayed out as better plays and they were already great plays prior and I think the other takeaway is even some of these skill position players we've had AJ Brown who felt a little bit closer to appropriately priced on that Friday night slate but like Tyreek and we've had some of these guys that are at the top of their position respectively running backs and wide receivers that have been a little bit cheaper as well and the value options and and granted we've had some big injuries on some of these slates as well so we'll talk about one specifically on this one but it's just funneling us all towards these stars and scrubs heavy approaches we had Jordan Mason who was really cheap after CMC was ruled out it's kind of a unique situation but I I still think in general we're getting the the top of the board is a little bit cheaper than it should be the mid tier is a little bit more expensive than maybe it should be and then the true punts the true value options have been a little bit cheaper in a lot of cases too so you're getting these these barbell type lineups where you're spending a lot up at the top with with the studs and then having the room left over to kind of fall into these value options we'll see if that remains again only four or five slates in and some major injuries have have kind of shifted things but I think that's kind of my macro takeway is is anything close to Optimal right now just seems to be very stars and scrubs heavy yeah and that feel like that's going to continue tonight because we have re heos thir already ruled out and we have divon Anan questionable we are projecting divon Anan to play in this game we'll talk about how we have docked uh Devon Anan for this injury stuff but you see you get guys like Jeff Wilson you get guys like Jaylen Wright extremely cheap and that can lead to more stars and scrubs type lineups where if the quarterback is a thousand cheaper than he should be it's gonna be way easier to make for this game man we have some real tail guys here I mean look at the tail look at their right tails on aan and moster who's obviously not playing but Tyreek Hill Josh Allen is just absolutely absurd the thickness of this right tail James Cook as well mro thoughts on this game Sam BR knowing that we have so many guys who like I don't know I'm like let me play Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill together and it's just an absolute smash I'm sure that's what everyone else is thinking as well yeah I definitely think that you guys hit on it like kind of the story of tonight is this pricing situation how easy it's going to be to jam in these super high-end guys but I think what we need to remind ourselves is just that yeah Devon Anan Josh Allen Tyreek Hill all these guys can reach that ceiling but the likelihood of all of them hitting their ceiling in this game is still pretty low so I think if we have a portfolio lineups we need to kind of diversify and limit our exposure in our aggregate here to not have too much of any of these guys so that we can maybe get some more balanced lineups find a way to be unique that way because if we're if we're playing you know Jeff Wilson Captain with all the studs in there then our best shot is to chop that about a thousand ways so yeah exactly okay together just isn't going to be possible right right and we'll get into that here in a second one thing that struck out to me right away on the Slate I was like oh let me just run some optimals for this slate and see what's coming through our optimals are nine out of our top 10 optimals are five Miami players one bills player then I G to came to Cody's projection here 14.6% for a game with a two and a half point spread is a massive number on the 51 bills uh 5-1 dolphin side like you just don't really see that that often I don't think when the spread is close like this and I actually think the bills can win the game and play well and win the game relatively easily so I was actually like shocked here to see 14 15% on this my lean is that if people are going to be playing 5-1 Miami it's such a high rate Cody I don't want to be playing 5-1 Miami really at all what do you think about what's coming through here on roster construction yeah frankly I think both of these numbers here the 42 Miami two four Miami two Buffalo lineups at 35.3% going to be even higher and the five Miami 1 Buffalo lineups going to be even higher as you alluded to if you just run our op run our projections through the solver Optimizer you're going to get even way more than that I think like you pointed out some people are going to be setting some groups and rules to avoid a ton of it I think some people will be boosting some of these bills players as well I think there will be some hand Builders who think you know this this is a Bills team that can put up a bunch of points it's a two and a half point spread let's let's let's balance these things out a little bit but I think in in any contest where there's more projection heavy lineups being submitted you're going to see these numbers come even up so I'm I'm in agreement with you that if you're looking for a way to get different how can we find some lineups that are that are featuring a few more bills players these these lineups that are like 2415 going to be drastically lower owned in smaller field contests where projections are a little bit more important and so those are lineups that I'm looking into but I I don't want to completely exclude some of these other lineups that that are projecting to be a little bit more popular I just want to be mindful about how I'm building lineups in those types of constructions yeah if you go over here to the solver and if you guys do have the add-on from ETR addon the solver subscription for the optimizer there is a screen here in the advanced settings where you can say listen opto I don't want want any five Miami one bills in fact I don't want any four Miami 2 bills either right and then you know that'll say and you can run top 10 lineups like that or whatever you want 150 lineups whatever you want you'll start to see lineups that come through that are like that I'm not sure that's the right thing to do Sam if you were going in here and said I don't want to have this Miami heavy stuff what kind of Leverage do you think you'd pull in the optimizer then I can also show some of the Sim stuff as well yeah I I don't try to kind of overthink about the specific constructions I think it's definitely helped to know these percentages and think about it so that you know what the Field's going to do but ultimately I think what I want to do is just have lineups that I think are well constructed and have a clear path to actually being optimal without being duped and so that's really what I'm going for rather than specifically ruling out certain constructions yeah and so just to show the people if I hit Sim here on those lineups it gives you lineups that we ran it gives you the projected Sim Roi projected cash rate ceiling for all these teams and if you click on them you can see some of this stuff just to be clear for people using this Sam the reason that it looks so high on the top 1% stuff is because of maybe I should let just let you explain you'll explain it way better than me yeah so if you if you want to pull up one of those charts there we go so yeah the basically in Showdown there's kind of a finite number of lineups that you can create um it's in the many tens of thousands it's not a tiny number but it is still a more finite number of lineups that are uh potentially optimal as opposed to like a Sunday main sleep when we have nine roster spots and many more teams so if you stumble on to one of the lineups that we have optimal in one of our 20,000 Sims behind the scenes then it's going to have a really high uh Sim r I so that's not to say that the ROI isn't correct or that you shouldn't take note of it um just that in reality it might not be quite as high it's more about being directionally correct here rather than specific magnitude of correctness exactly and that's the point that I for anyone that is using solver Sims I want to be clear that you know this 340% Roi is too high a it's assuming that our assumptions are correct and then all the stuff that Sam said said um also plays into it but it's directionally correct right like I feel like this top lineup here is better than the bottom lineup is that fair to say sam like if I was picking between these two this one at the top is better than this one at the bottom just dire directionally correct yep exactly use it as a directional check all right let's get into the game here tonight from a macro perspective Cody we have 48 and a half point total we have the Dolphins favored by two and a half here in this game I what we saw from the bills in week one was extreme run heavy not extreme very run heavy I would say and then you also get this situation where they got behind and we've seen it so many times Josh Allen's just like screw it man I'm gonna go Superman and win this game for my team anytime they get around the 10 five I feel like Allen is just looking for places to run he accounts for such a huge portion of his team touchdowns we do have Josh Allen's the highest projected base projection but only 0.1 ahead of Tyre so any macro thoughts here on this game Cody yeah I think the biggest takeaway is their pass rate over expectations since Joe Brady has taken over as offensive coordinator last week last year in week 11 has been extremely low and that's kind of been the case throughout his his tenure here minus 2.9% pass rate over expectation had six straight games to close the 2023 season with a negative pass rate over expectation and really the only game where they were kind of come kind of came out gunning was against Kansas City at Arrowhead a team where they I feel like they knew they needed to put points on the board to keep up and really kind of pump the pass rate up a little bit that continued in in week one minus 7% pass rate of our expectation a 48% situation neutral pass rate this isn't like the Josh Allen that used to kind of give us like 300 yard passing upside routinely would add 50 yards on the ground going to rush for a touchdown but it is still a quarterback who I think in in Showdown slates specifically where he's priced at 11k and in in optimal formats is is kind of still a little bit of a cheat code I think he's a little bit too cheap here I think the floor is incredibly safe I think as a result of how difficult it is to stack him or or how difficult it is perceived by the field to stack him given the past game options that he's got around him now I think you're actually going to see Captain ownership and total ownership be a little bit lower on Allen in this slate than it has been in the past I think he he checks out as a phenomenal play I think in most instances I'd rather have him as Flex than a captain and I think that kind of is born out in the way the Sims treat him as well but I still think a really phenomenal play should be 100% owned cash game contest and probably won't be so I'll take advantage there as well but even though he's not the Josh Allen of old I still think a really phenomenal Showdown play yeah it's interesting the the captain stuff Sam like the problem that people are going to have with Josh Allen is I don't know who to stack him with right that's what people are going to keep saying and so it's like you know what let me just play him in Flex because if I play him in Captain then I probably need some wide receiver production there how do you think about Josh Allen in Captain type teams versus Flex type teams Sam yeah I think when I don't stack Josh Allen I like him better in Captain because if he gets there from a in a in a really big way he's probably rushing in which case he doesn't need to drag people along his receivers along but I think tonight's a little bit interesting because in the past when we have Josh Allen um on a showdown slate we usually have Steph digs priced right around him we used to have Gabe Davis usually priced around like 7K or so so he wasn't super easy to fit and now all of a sudden his most expensive pass catcher uh tonight if you don't want to include James Cook there is $7,200 Dalton concade and then you have a a bunch of guys um including some like real values um down in the one and 2K range all very reasonable prices so I don't know exactly how stacked he'll end up being because um all the Miami guys project so well and also have good value but I do think if you want to Stack Josh Allen if you want to double stack him like you certainly can tonight yeah it's it's interesting we'll get to these pass catchers here in a second but I think if you do have a take on someone consolidating for Buffalo tonight's the night to play it right because everybody is kind of throwing their hands up being like well Josh is going to spread the ball around but what if he doesn't what if tonight it consolidates and I think that's an angle that someone out there could take I'll talk about who I think will consolidate when we get to that but yeah yeah and I think too like especially in hand builds we sometimes see the field overreact a little bit to the most recent game and we just saw Josh Allen uh kind of do it all himself without carrying anybody along so I wouldn't be surprised if he does come in naked at captain a little bit more than we would normally see tonight yeah agreed um on the other side Cody you have a quarterback that I think you must stack right like if if Tua tooa has a huge game not only is it carrying along pass catchers but we know we're pretty sure exactly which pass catchers it's going to be now I assume two of Tyreek Stacks are going to be some of those popular on this entire slate especially Tyreek at Captain and Tua in Flex I feel like it's just going to be Mega chalk but yeah Cody thoughts on playing Tua tug low tonight and he does seem really really cheap I mean 9,400 for a quarterback with a ceiling is very cheap yeah it's it's a problem I think the DraftKings is overacting a little bit specifically on these pocket passers you know maybe you can make the case that Allen at 11k as a as a road underdog not throwing nearly as much as they have in the past is probably closer to appropriately priced but but like Tua they they're pricing Tua at 9,400 in this Mike McDaniel offense with two with Tyreek and Jaylen Wad and all these other options around him as if he's like Trevor Simeon you know these are the the price tags that we were paying for Trevor Simeon and Tyson bent and Zach Wilson last year it's just a little bit too cheap and as far as cash game contests go another one that I think is is pretty much just a stone cold lock in cash game contest given the floor that the quarterback position provides and another one that in in tournaments I would much rather have to In Flex in lineups where I have a a dolphin at Captain as opposed to having Tu at Captain and then having multiple dolphins in the flex part of that's just like the way that that draft King scoring sets up if Tua provides a slate winning type score I just think it's way more likely that Tyreek or wad or aan or somebody else on this team outscores him straight up and then I just rather rather have that production at Captain and then move Tua into the flex so you know I'm not going to out rule it out outright but I I do think that I would much rather just keep him in the flex and get a little bit underweight that seven or eight percent exposure that we have at Captain as of right now and and take big stands on some of these other dolphins skill position players yeah I mean for me Sam and I we've talked about this Tu is a a hard selling Captain like Toody like Cody just talked about because it's so concentrated it's really likely if Tua goes over 300 that one of his receivers is just going to go absolutely nuts and that's going to be more ideal in Captain but I could see it being contrarian we only have 7% to a captain here uh Sam what do you think about handling Tua tonight yeah I I agree with everything you guys just pointed out I I really want to play to and Captain tonight because I think it's going to be contrarian especially in hand fields and that's kind of uh more of the stuff that I play um I could see that 7% coming down maybe even like three or four perc um in some real small hand builds but like you guys said it's just really hard for him to be the optimal Captain I think if he is the optimal Captain certainly he's during multiple touchdown passes and he's spreading it around and those guys that he spreads it around to it could be a random you know Durham SMI touchdown jnu Smith something like that and if those guys catch just one touchdown they're probably not finding the optimal at like eight or nine total points so I think if you are playing him in Captain you might not even try to get too perfect with finding his receivers I think most of the lineups that do have him in Captain will probably have a double stack Tyreek and Wadd so maybe choosing one of them and then hoping that the other touchdowns go to some no names and then spread around like that's the ideal path that I'd be looking for um yeah one thing I do want to say is that Tua and this Dolphins offense has struggled historically against the bills over the last I don't know one to three years or so I mean Bill's defense has done a really good job and Bill's defense did a good job against the Cardinals uh on Sunday as well my lean my like contrarian lean on this game if I was gonna be like tell yourself a story bills in under right and I'm not saying I'm GNA go bet it or anything like that but I think that's like a sharp way to play the game Bills win the the game and it stays under obviously that those kind of lines would not include much Tua in them all right let's get to the story of the day Raheem moer has been mov ruled out with a chest injury now uh for anyone out there thinking about what to do in season long most's injury does not sound serious overly serious he's not going to go on IR it is a short week maybe it was a longer week he would have played Anan on the other hand hurt his ankle a little bit in the game I did see video of him practicing yesterday looked like he was fine he put out something on Instagram today like the is ready to rock or whatever we consider a game time decision so we watching this but for now we are projecting hn in we have for 45% of Miami's carries roughly 10.7 carries for him in this game if we thought he was 100% in this game we would have him for one or two more carries we did not put any docks on hn pass catching stuff so I mean they're so thin at wide receiver I mean we're talking about baros as their third receiver and like nothing beyond that really the way they use Devon hent in week one was awesome I mean seven targets he lined up Slaughter wide I think it was like 15 out of his 34 snaps they threw the ball a lot behind the line of scrimmage but he's so good on Yak so people might be scared by this Q tag here Cody it's a short week I get the concern I still want to play him what do you think about handling a chance tonight how do you think the field will handle hn yeah I'm with you a 9600 with mostard already ruled out with with SS kind of pointing in the direction that he is going to play assuming we get bullish or even just net neutral reports leading up to game time I think that you know round 50% even higher could hold and I could see many coming in even higher at captain and I think if people do want to play him they'll certainly want to play him for that nuclear upside that we know Deon Devon Anan has and so I think you could see him come in over 12.5% a cap then maybe closer to 15% or so but for for all the right reasons you know his his primary backup already being ruled out had a pretty good share of the team's rushing attempts the stuff out of the uh as far as like a receiver goes was was awesome ran around on 59% of dropbacks was in the backfield for for 40% of those slot for 40% out wide for 15% you already mentioned like their their tight end and and wide receiver three situation is is kind of gross for lack of a better term so I think people are going to be excited about aan for all the right reasons I am as well but we should acknowledge here there's a lot of put volatility not knowing his status not really knowing how much they're going to want to use the running backs behind him and and that kind of creates a situation where if you have a contu in take or you think that maybe he's a little bit more injur injured or the risk of reinjury is higher than maybe our projections LED on you can certainly gain some leverage by not going to a 50 to 55% owned Devon Anan sure and you know there's some chance he fails on efficiency right I don't think that he will but we have massive efficiency I mean we have 18 points for him and only 10 carries 10.7 carries you know and obviously there's a lot of pass catching stuff baked in there as well but yeah he could fail in efficiency too I I think that if the field is scared to play him though I want to play him we do have a pretty big ownership projection on him here the interesting other part of this Sam and I do want your take on hn also but this Jeff Wilson versus Jaylen Wright stuff so Jaylen Wright the rookie they traded up for in the draft was a healthy scratch in week one I don't want to say that that definitely means that Jeff Wilson is ahead on offense Jeff Wilson was on their punt return team Jeff Wilson was on their punt coverage team and maybe Jaylen Wright's not ready to play special team so they were like we'll leave Jeff Wilson up but when it comes to offense maybe jayen Wright is ahead we're not projecting it that way but I think that's at least possible we don't have that big ownership Gap though between Wilson and Wright like I think in most base scenarios Wilson's probably ahead but Wright is by far the more explosive player anyways any more thoughts on Dolphins running back tonight here Sam yeah I I don't have a strong lean on how they'll use uh these running backs I I guess if I had a you know guess I think that Jeff Wilson just kind of slides into the Raheem moster role especially because it's early in the season um I think if they really wanted Jaylen Wright involved they probably would have had him active last week but I totally understand your point that they needed Wilson on special teams um but it's it's also a Thursday it's a really short week so I kind of like leaning into the Jeff Wilson side here especially if that um ownership does hold um but It ultimately I'm I'm pretty excited about Miami's Run game overall um here and especially after um we saw the bills defense just kind of funnel targets to James Connor last week whether that was game planned or not but either way I I like having a lot of exposure to all of these guys on Miami yeah to be clear we have 8.1 carries for Jeff Wilson tonight 4.0 for Jaylen Wright if you think that's tighter uh or wider you know you can adjust accordingly certainly on the other side I thought James Cook played a really good game against Arizona problem is when they get down inside the 10 it's just like you know what Josh Allen just gonna like crash through a wall and score a touchdown so it's hard on James Cook I think that if we miss on ownership I could see him being even lighter here Cody at 9k considering what's around him in the narrative which is honestly not even narrative it's true Josh Allen stealing so many goal line carries any thoughts on Bills running back tonight yeah the interesting thing is I thought James Cook prior to the Raheem oart news was actually a kind of Fringe cash game option and then once he gets ruled out it obviously makes hn better it gives you the salary to get down to to Jeff Wilson or Jaylen Wright depending on who you like the most and then that kind of affords you the ability to get back up to those studs that we that we've already talked about in a couple that we'll talk about in a second and it kind of just leaves James cook in no man's land 38.2% projected ownership right now 6.3% at Captain all of the the the uh the data supporting that Josh Allen's going to steal some of those Red Zone and goal line touches I think is certainly going to be in the back of people's minds but like still frankly especially if you think that this game is going to play uh under the total and buffalo might win in some of those Buffalo heavy lineups I think James Cook makes for an awesome play he did handle 63.3% of the team's rushing attempts was involved for 37 and a half perc of the the Red Zone attempts did get the one carry inside the 5 yard line last week and still pretty involved as a as a receiver as well I know Ray Davis is there and people were excited about him during best ball season but doesn't seem to be mixing in all that much as of yet that that could change as a season progresses a little bit of course and Ty Johnson who's always kind of a a fly in the ointment there a little bit is going to steal some pass down work but I think as long as this game plays close which which Vegas is expecting it to do I think James Cook makes for a pretty pretty awesome contrarium play who still has that slate winning type upside at 9k yeah I'm just checking the injury point I'm actually surprised that uh Tai Johnson ended up not on the injury final injury report he is going to play I saw him bang up his knee so yeah um he'll be in there at 2200 very very lightly owned Sam let's go to Bill's pass cches I think this is the story of this slate if you want to play like me something contrarian something Buffalo heavy that's cont I feel like I need a buffalo pass catcher in there I don't know if you agree with with that or not from a usage perspective in week one it was clear Keon Coleman ran the most routes had the best Target share Don K con Kade ran a ton of routes he he ran the second most routes on the team but Target share was absolutely brutal my lean to consolidate if I had to pick one to consolidate tonight remains Donan Cade maybe I'm clinging to my priors from the preseason too much here but just the way he was used in week one I want to keep betting on him as the one that earns the targets now you could say listen man he's not that good he's not that good at earning targets Dawson knock is out there Etc I'm just gonna give it more than one week before I say no Don Kate can't earn targets so I don't understand what do you think about do you think if you want to play Allen heavy stuff do you need a Bill's pass catcher and if so which ones do you like tonight yeah I I don't think you have to have any certain number of bills pass catcher I think playing Allan naked is fine I think probably the most common way to build with Allen is probably one pass catcher but even then there's so many different options that any one you choose isn't going to be too popular maybe Coleman will be the most popular um but even then you know you're you're not getting too popular and then um if you want to pair them with two or even three then you're you're really going to get unique pretty fast um I I think the concade stuff's really interesting I know I was kind of um on an outlier within ETR as far as I wasn't really on him um I wrote him up in our our staff um bus article and I I certainly don't think cancade is bad by any means I just don't think that the ADP he had this season and that translates to the salary that we see for him in DK is really deserving uh or that price for him is usually deserving of a tight end that is more like commanding targets we know can earns targets for sure but he's not the kind of guy at least in my mind that when he's out there he needs to be given the ball the way we see like Kelsey for example so would I be surprised at all if K got 10 targets tonight absolutely not and I definitely want exposure to him but um I I'm kind of in this weird spot where I don't love K Kade but if he's going to come in at that ownership then I love him as a play tonight well that's the thing about all the bills pass captures right they're all a little bit overpriced or at least like to the naked eye you're going to see way better quotee unquote values on the Miami side it's like well they're just going to spread the ball around how can I pay 6200 for Shakir 7200 for King Kade or 5,800 for Coleman H how can I do that when they're just going to spread the ball around again I think if you can find who consolidates tonight that is to me the key to the Slate I I think overpay to be contrarian a little bit on concade would be my lean here I also like Shakir I would note that on Curtis Samuel only ran nine routes last week we're projecting a little bit more for him off that turf toe thing this week but it's a short week seems like a unideal time for him to like get really get ramped up so 5400 for Curtis Samuel is very very expensive Cody any more thoughts here on Bill's pass catchers yeah I think my macro takeaway here is that and you guys kind of alluded to it like all of these guys are going to come down in ownership at least the more expensive ones were already pretty light on some of these cheap guys like Dawson Knox at 2600 and Matt Collins at 1600 but now with the value opening up with with Jaylen Wright and Je Jeff Wilson you don't need to go here as often as you might might have thought you would when you first open the Slate so I actually don't think those guys are going to get too steamed up that you know the one that feels like the most overpriced that feels like the easiest cross off if you're trying to make some of those those adjustments now is Curtis Samuel you mentioned at nine routes last week I don't really see a reason for his his route participation to go up this week there wasn't much discussion of that happening at all anyway and at 5400 like he's actually got to do something to pay off that price tag really low a DOT roll in kind of a low volume pass offense he seems like the clear the clear cross up of the the top guys or the more expensive guys I think the one that I'm most excited about is is the one that and I don't want to compare this guy to Stefon Diggs but on the same team if there's one guy that could become Stefon Diggs here just based off of usage profile I think it is Keon Coleman we might look back in a few weeks and I know it didn't seem that way in week one but we might look back in a few weeks and think it was kind of silly that this guy was 5,800 as the Bills clearcut wide receiver one the the route participation was obviously good good he's going to be lined up on the perimeter a lot and I think he's a guy that profiles to get some of those short designed targets to to get the ball into his hands but will'll also see some of those deep targets uh you know we've seen those guys and and they're generally pretty attractive in Showdown slates because they offer a good floor but also have a a slate winning type ceiling to them as well the one that comes to mind a little bit is z flowers he sees a lot of those designed short area stuff but then we'll see the occasional 20 plus yard downfield Target and I kind of feel that same way about Coleman so at 5800 if I get the sense that ownership's going to come down which I I kind of think it will maybe not drastically but a little bit Coleman I think is the one that I'm most excited about as far as a guy that could give me a slate winning score in a tournament yeah in terms of the punts Mt Collins at600 ran 20 routes on 30 Josh Allen dropbacks last week scored the touchdown I'm a little worried people are going to use Mt Hollands as like their preferred punt a lot here uh tonight as part of Allen teams and maybe as when when people roster Allen Allen Captain Etc it's going to include Matt Hollands for salary relief a lot but yeah I think that's one to note on the other side here Sam I mean seems like Tyreek Hill is Unstoppable I mean going back to the beginning of last season just absolutely incredible Unstoppable Tyreek Hill I will note though and it's in Silva's column here I'll bring it up here in a second bills have done a very good job on Tyreek hill we have 68.8% total ownership and 20 1% captain on Tyreek Sam how do you think we can handle Tyreek smartly here tonight yeah it's tough because when you have kind of this expensive receiver like this it kind of funnels you in the specific build um if you're building for one of those Tyreek explosion games then you want to put him in Captain and if you want to put him in Captain you usually want to have Tua in flex and so you're eating up a lot of your salary right away um doing that so I think you definitely need to be very you know considerate about how you're building with Tyreek I kind of like playing him in Flex without Tua um if if he has maybe a game that he scores like 20 points that's pretty solid but it's not going to make him the optimal captain in all likelihood um and I also think you know like you just alluded to he's really struggled um against the Bills or the bills have done a really good job shutting him down um however that might be so I think Tyreek fade tonight is really really interesting as well yes if you want to have a lot of fun tonight fade Tyreek watch the game and just root for Tyreek to do nothing it's gonna it'll just be a ton of fun all the way until the end no uh in Silva's article here in matchups um jayen uh Tyreek kale has played mcdermit bills five times lines are 7690 7821 3580 9691 and 2330 they have kept Tyreek Hill in front of them every single time that they have played uh the bills so look man it's scary I don't want to watch the game and fade Tyreek Hill actually if I do make a a Tyreek fade team I'm just not gonna watch the game I I don't wanna I don't need to put myself I don't need to put myself through that anyways Cody we don't have anyone on the Dolphins pass cers projected for more than four points except Wadd and Tyreek and that's what I mean when it gets so concentrated here between aan Tyreek and wad however however you get this steing suspicion that in Showdown maybe one touchdown from braxon baros or like some smallish line if all the expensive guys go off and you might need one of these guys Cody any more thoughts on other Dolphins pass catchers yeah first thing that comes to mind is if if we're talking about a Tyreek Hill fade I think the the best way to maximize a Fate on Tyreek is to probably play some of the more expensive Dolphins just because if you expect Ty to at least fail relative to salary based expectations somebody else in this offense unless the offense just fails outright somebody else in this offense is going to have to to put up some production and you know I wrote it in the article kind of feels like an episode of Groundhog's Day because it feels like anytime Miami is on the Slate main slate or or Showdown we're all talking about Jaylen waddle as leverage off of the more expensive more popular pieces of Miami's offense and yet here we are every every week talking about how Tyreek Hill just went nuts how Devon aan just went nuts but I kind of feel it again I feel like a Jaylen Wadd squeeze is coming I think he's going to be lower owned in both large and small field tournaments as more ownership gets funneled up to these more expensive guys and you're going to see like 10ish percent Captain ownership on Wadd 40% ownership in in in Flex or in total and seems like the optimal way to try and to try and maximize that that fade on Tyreek who's going to end up being 70% plus maybe up to 25% in Captain so I do like Wadd uh it feels like a situation where he's just always going to be the bridesmaid never the bride and and is always going to come in second to Tyreek but I do like him on the Slate given the salary discount and the ownership discount and then after that it's it's it gets really gross this tight end rotation that they deployed last week with Johnny Smith Durham SMI and even Julian Hill like this was a a full-blown three-headed monster really rotated uh routes and opportunities but I feel like if there's a guy that could separate still and and provide a slate winning score I still think it's going to be Janu Smith was in the slot a bunch and I think was kind of brought in for that role as opposed to guys like Duram SMI and and Julian Hill and the fact that he's 2800 Priced Right There by Jaylen Wright more expensive than Matt Hollins Priced Right There by by Jeff Wilson I think ownership's going to be be really low here and you can make the same case for baros they ran a bunch of of of 21 Personnel last week with two running backs on the field at the same time that could come down now with with moster being out obviously which could result in more Brax and beros in the slot so I think at 1200 he would be the one wide receiver that is interesting to me but but it really just feels dart throwy at this point with these these non Tyreek and Jaylen Wadd pass catchers for Miami yeah to be clear on Johnny Smith he played 20 snaps in week one 12 slot five wide I mean he wasn't out there a lot but when he was out there at least he was doing the right things he ran 17 routes you know like he didn't play that much but like Cody said he's in the pass catching role at least um okay defense and kicker here Cody it's an interesting one because there are guys below this range of defense and kicker that are viable we just talked about Johnny Smith we have the Dolphins running backs what you're asking for I think is for those guys to outscore the kickers and the defense in this game a lot of times when we get highs scoring games ownership gets depressed and you kind of see that here on defense and kicker to be honest thoughts on the specialist t tonight yeah I think the Dolphins defense is the one that stands out quite a bit you see a 1.1 higher base projection and $1,000 cheaper than the bills for for basically the same ownership for all intents and purposes and if you're fing up the Sims and the solver you're going to see that they Sim out really well for that reason the big question mark is can they can they outscore those cheap guys that we've we've all alluded to and there's a there's a handful of them on this slate I I think in lineups where you want to be heavy on the Dolphins which is going to be the the kind of natural play anyway I think the Dolphins make ACH bunch of cents I don't think the bill the bills are necessarily bad but that, does go a long way so I have a little bit more of a lukewarm take on the bills defense I would be more likely to include them in the bills heavy stuff but still not not overly excited about them at 4K and then the kickers stand out as pretty strong options as well we've seen DraftKings go a little bit cheaper than they were last year at the kicker position you would see some guys north of 5K in some instances and you're seeing the same thing happen here where Jason Sanders is $400 cheaper as the home favorite and not coming through with much more ownership so you'll see Jason Sanders Sim out pretty well if you're using the solver Sims too and I like him quite a bit same situation I like Jason Sanders if you're using some of those Dolphins heavy stuff as a way to get a little bit lower ownership there and a way to round out some of those 42 and in 51 builds where you're really heavy on the dolphin side uh yeah okay Sam I want to ask about this question about Julian Hill a couple people noticed this I noticed this Julian Hill is popping a little bit in optimals and the Sol and and in The Sims and that is um despite the fact that we only have Julian Hill for 2.6 points now what happens in these Showdown slates it's not that we like Julian Hill that much it allows you to get everyone else in the problem with these kind of plays is Julian Hill takes an airball a lot and it's really hard to win especially something large field with zero in your lineup even if you jam in all the studs so you have any advice for people who are coming up with a lot of Julian Hill in both opto and solver type stuff I think you're on mute Sam uh thank you um I I think you just need to kind of recognize that he projects significantly better than everybody priced below him and so whenever you have a a simulation where a certain combination of higher priced guys all hit in the same situ uh simulation then the guy who projects the best that makes all those other pieces fit together is going to fit that lineup and so that lineup is going to look like it's the optimal lineup quite often relative to all other lineups and again that's not incorrect but it does mean that you need a very specific outcome to happen for Julian Hill to be correct and if we if we just typ Ed up say the projection between Alec inold and Julian Hill then that that Roi for the Julian Hills stuff would go down notably so um again it's not incorrect but I do think you need to just like manage expectations that we're not saying Julian Hill is an amazing play we're saying that there are certain situations where all the other pieces in those lineups hit together yep for sure okay yeah I think that's important point to take for anyone doing the add-on stuff by the way if anybody wants to check that out you go up here to subscribe hit this here where it says the solver and you will get the information that you need about both the optimizer and the Sim products all right uh you know what let's have some fun we got about five minutes here I will show you guys maybe a little simbro stuff here so I will share my solver screen let's say that uh so first I need to make some teams so why don't I go to advanced settings here and I'll just say you know what um I want uh I want want to have any five1 Miami I'm not saying there's the right way to do it I'm just giving an example uh any I don't want any 51 Miami I don't want any 42 Miami and you know what I also want to fade Tyreek Hill what could possibly go wrong so let me get 20 lineups here they'll give me 20 lineups based on optimal optimal lineups just based on our base projection then I go to this simulate button here and I will simulate it for let's say the $3 pylon tonight on DraftKings and it'll think for a little bit here and by the way saying while while it's thinking Sam the way I'm doing this is is not the optimal way to do it right with putting on the rules and then making making stuff like making eliminate Tyreek and make stuff like that right yeah I mean I I I don't like to kind of group things out um very strictly like that but I don't I don't think it's fair to say it's the wrong way to do it either I think that's kind of the interesting thing about this is that there is not necessarily a perfect way to do it and maybe you know you might want to run in stages if you're uh if you're building through the opto where maybe for 20% of your lineups you do group this stuff out and then for another 20% of your lineups you group other things out and then that you kind of manage your exposure that way instead of trying to run all 150 lineups or however many you're running at the same time yeah all right so why don't you explain to the people what they're seeing here and how you would recommend they proceed from this screen Yeah so basically for each lineup what we've done is we've calculated what your expected Roi would be um that that's an average Roi aggregated across all the different simulations um we have 20,000 simulations behind the scene here um and so just like out just did I click um to sort on the Sim Roi descending and this is basically telling us in order which lineups we think are the best um in terms of your expected return so if you then click on the little chart next to one of the lineups uh we can see the exact distribution of how we think this will rate out so we see this lineup has uh Roi of 28073 and BAS basically we can see that the reason why is because this uh this lineup has an extremely high top 1% rate we talked a lot about how one good way to kind of Judge your uh your own performance in gpps is to see at what what rate your lineups are hitting the top 1% of all lineups so if you're have a a lineup or your performance overall you hit more 1% lineups in the field so your 1% rate is greater than 1% then you're doing pretty well and this one hits at like a 5% rate so that's why the ROI is so high um it doesn't mean that this lineup would actually win 5% of the time but it does mean in our simulations it's hitting the top 1% at a a 5% rate so again it's it's not going to be a exactly perfect um estimate because there's lots of inputs here um but we do think it is the best of the lineups that were just um run in this latest batch uh in terms of dupes how would you tell people to think about well this lineup is gonna be duped a lot this lineup might not be duped a lot once they're on this screen yeah so we do uh take into consideration how often we think each lineup was going to be duped if let's say we think the lineup that projects best is is going to be duped by 50% of the field and that was in our inputs and then you ran that lineup through the simulator well that Roi is going to be extremely negative even if we do think it is by far the best lineup because you need it to be somewhat unique in order to not have a massive chop um I think one of the slates last week uh we saw a pretty big chop and I don't know like 200 people split the first prize or whatever and you know that's fun that's great but in the long run it's it's not going to give you a High Roi um so a couple different ways to think about it is one like I said it's already factored into the ROI it's not a perfect measure because we have to estimate the the dupe rate for all of the many many lineups that are behind the scenes but it is a it is a good directionally correct measure and then you can also look at the percent owned column on the far right and I think the last thing to do is just look at the lineup think about it and say would I have come up with this lineup if I were building it by hand does it kind of naturally fall in the place like we were talking about earlier with Tyreek Hill lineups let's say you put him in Captain then okay you want two in Flex well I don't want to fade Josh Allen so I'm gonna put him in Flex too okay now I need some good value well Jeff Wilson's a really good value you know you kind of fall into certain builds and if you can imagine that you could have built this lineup very easily by hand well it's a really good chance that the field is going to build that line up by hand too uh I messed that up before if you want to completely eliminate Tyreek you need to eliminate him from both captain and flex which is what I just did there um yeah couple quick questions on this uh TMS says I've gotten lineups to look pretty flat but I have a really high Roi I assume that is because it doesn't get duped when it wins is that the right way to think about it Sam yeah we're at least if you're simming for one of these very large um mme type uh gpp lotos then yeah you're playing for the 1% outcomes and those are the ones that are going to impact the ROI having a high cash rate in the Millie maker is not going to give you a good Roi you need to have ones that win and so that lineup um if it has a super high Roi it is winning and it's not getting D too much um I'd say most of the lineups that are hitting the the pure number one spot we probably have duped um in our in our field lineups but it's just a matter of how often it's dud right so like I just eliminated Tyreek from all this stuff and you see everything looks worse because we have such a big projection on Tyreek but like you know the Sim would help me think about teams what teams perform well against our F field lineups when Tyreek is not in them and something like aan Captain with two in Flex like that makes intuitive sense to me you know so um yeah okay everybody nobody's listening to any of this all they want is the flag plants they want the flag plants they want the flag plants it is time for the flag plants Cody I shall give you the floor as I get back to the projections here for flag plant tonight Bills Dolphins yeah I saw the golf bro takes or the excuse me the football football bro takes in the the chat here Keon Coleman isn't a separator Keon Coleman can't be Stefon Diggs guess what when you're 6'3 23 pounds and a grown ass man your size is your separator so I think we're going to get a breakout performance here from the second round rookie Keon Coleman if not for the ugly box score I think we'd have a little bit more of a bullish outlook on Keon Coleman 21% 21.7% Target share 31.3% first read Target share 28.1% air yard share all these other guys in this offense for low a do guys he's going to be the guy that gets the stuff downfield and when that happens and when he and Josh Allen connect there is going to be a slate winning score in his range of outcomes so I'm gonna flag plant $5,800 Keon Coleman does seem very cheap does seem very cheap for Keon Coleman I'm I'm so skeptical about some holes in his game in general and how much they're going to throw and everything but yeah samees very cheap there 5800 Keon Coleman 36% total ownership Sam your flag plant I'm gonna go with James Cook here I think he's a a great great Captain play I I'm GNA have him in the flex too but especially at Captain I think he takes a lot of Leverage off of a number of plays I think he takes leverage off of Josh Allen although I'm happy to play Josh Allen and flex when cook is Captain but also if Cook is getting there in an optimal way he's probably getting at least one touchdown that uh would steal from a Josh Allen touchdown and you know we we talked about uh James Cook's us usage last week and how uh Josh Allen got the goal line carries but James Cook was in there at the goal line and I feel pretty good about that especially if uh Josh Allen wants to take it easy on the short week maybe Cook gets an extra Red Zone carry and I think he's just a good matchup in general um against this Miami defense and I think he's just a overall good leverage play so all the pieces aligning there okay I like that one too I I I think those are both super sharp super interesting I'm going to stick on the bills side you know my concern on the donin Cade stuff is that he has very low ad do he's not great great after the catch and so he needs volume right and if it's going to be real flat and the bills aren't going to throw that much then concade isn't great however to get someone like King Kade at 4% captain or 30% overall ownership here I think is really really intriguing he's the guy on Buffalo who I think if someone's going to catch eight balls in this game I think King Kade is the one we also have from a narrative perspective Cody tight end's dominating Showdown slates I mean this is a long there's a long and storied history of tight ends on Showdown slates getting dongs getting double dongs Etc ETA and I did want a flag plan at tight end because I got to give a shout out to Shannon sharp man I mean I don't know if this was St I don't know what was going on there no matter what the way that him and you guys got to watch this interview between uh oo Cino and Shannon sharp it is the funniest thing I thought those guys were just like kind of clown they're actually hilarious like they are they are really really funny dudes so cannot recommend the Shannon sh in honor of all tight ends flag plant dong concade tonight all right these shows are going to be more behind the P well for in season subscribers starting soon Monday's show uh will be for inseason subscribers if you do not have in season yet you get access to a ton of Showdown content here in the NFL tab we of course have the show Cody's break down all our projection Silas matchup and then the Sim analysis which you'll see here which Sam works on some takes away uh for in subscribers here that we takeaways that we have from the SIM for all the players also if you're super hardcore and you want to get in here on the optimizer and simulator stuff information here for Cody for Sam to the literal dozens of people behind the scenes that put all the work to show you all this stuff I am Adam good luck everybody [Music]