welcome back to the National Post politics Bureau where it's the first week of September and Ryan tumulty we already have some news uh you and I were not ready for it yesterday we were not shaven or wearing nice clothes so today we're going to shoot a video for video for you explaining why J meet Singh and the NDP have broken their confidence and Supply agreement with the Liberal Party of Canada this was a deal that basically kept Justin TR in power for three years it made Parliament a lot easier for them and it got some NDP priorities through the house um why would jeg me sing break this deal you know that's the question that all of Ottawa is asking right now um Jag me sing is in third place in every National poll that we have seen um I think though ultimately the decision to do this was about breaking that mold you know up until now uh the Liberals had been talking about an election next fall that's when the fixed election date is uh their assumption had been that the longer they waited the better the economy would be uh and voters would come back to them um the theory was that they would their theory was they'd be able to slowly chip into that conservative lead but really everything in federal politics uh was kind of in a holding pattern you know the conservatives had of a big lead it isn't growing really but it isn't shrinking considerably either yeah none of the other parties are really moving in big ways in ways that would upset the the apple cart change the overall direction um so this has the potential to do that this has the potential to change what everyone thought was the outcome we were all headed towards um and I think they decided to air on the side of change yeah and we weren't the only ones surprised by this I think most of political Ottawa was surprised and were the Liberals also surprised yeah I mean full credit to the NDP for Keeping a Secret in Ottawa um because yes the Liberals were surprised uh I've heard from multiple people now that uh they only found out yesterday around the same time the rest of us found out um so as far as they understood you know this was a that was working um the liberal house leader Karina Gould at the cabinet Retreat just you know last week uh said that she fully expected the deal would run all the way till June 2025 she didn't see it collapsing before then so um certainly the Liberals were planning that this deal would stay in place they were planning for an October 2025 election um and this this caught them by surprise how do you think this will play out in the fall maybe in the spring do you think an election is more likely now or what do we expect to happen going forward yeah an election is much more likely now I think we got to be honest about that um you know there are the confidence votes that we know about right the the fall fiscal update and the spring budget if we get those far those money bills that are always confidence measures um but the opposition can also intro introduce a vote of a motion of no confidence in the government and the conservative leader has been very clear he's going to do that at the first opportunity um I think it will be difficult for the NDP not impossible but it would be difficult for the NDP with jug me Singh having said yesterday that the Liberals are selfish that they are weak uh that they are beholden to corporate interests that they won't stand out to the little guy for when a vote of no confidence comes up to say yeah but we're going to keep you going for another couple months y Yeah you mentioned Pier PV the conservatives they are riding high in the polls uh how does this affect their upcoming fall and how does this affect their chances you know I think for them this is anything that gets an election to happen faster is a win um you know I think the the liberal theory of the election of reelection as it is is that they will deliver on the programs that they have promised so things like dental care and pharmacare um child care you know having those daycare fees actually hit that $10 a day margin um and that they going into an election in the fall of 20125 Canadians will be in a better economic situation interest rates will be lower and they'll all these programs that they're wondering about whether or not a conservative government will continue yeah um so you know the liberal reelection plan was based on time um and yesterday they probably lost some of it okay thank you Ryan uh we have two byelections coming up September 16th to keep an eye on those will be interesting given the new world we're in uh keep an eye on us keep an eye on nationalpost.com and we'll see you next time