after four long tense days we've reached a historic moment in this election we can now project the winner of the presidential race hello and welcome today I'm going to be talking about the US election which is set to take place in the first Tuesday of November which on this occasion is the 5th of November 2024 and this election will determine whether camela Harris or Donald Trump becomes the next president of the United States now who wins in November is determined by the Electoral College in short in order to win the US presidential election you need to win 270 Electoral College votes in other words you need to win a majority of the electoral college now the system is quite straightforward in order to win an individual State it's a winner Tech all system it's first P the post so what you need to do is win the most votes in that state and if you do that you're going to win all of the Electoral College votes for that state and the number of College votes that the state possesses is determined by the total number of people that it sends to Congress plus the total number of Senators which is always two so to give an example of that California the largest state well it sends 52 people to Congress currently plus two senators so in the Electoral College it's worth 54 Electoral College votes and that State's also very easy to predict it's solidly Democratic state so all of those 54 Electoral College votes are going to go to the Democrats guaranteed pretty much this election whereas if we take another state Alaska Alaska is one of the smaller States so it only sends one person to Congress it automatically gets two senators and so it's only worth three Electoral College votes and again we can be pretty sure how that State's going to go is going to go Republican now if there's a tie which is rather unusual and peculiar and um has only happened really in circumstances back in the past um where more than two candidates have had a chance of winning then the the the decider of the election will be Congress um that's very unlikely to happen though now if we're going to predict the election we would start by categorizing the states into three categories you've got red states which are solidly Republican states you've got blue states which are solidly Democratic states and then you got a bunch of states that are in the middle which you call swing States and the swing of Swing stes are the states that are going to predict this election um and this year just looking at my screen um we have Nevada Arizona Minesota Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia and it's going to really come down to those states and which way they go now the good news for the Harris campaign is that she's ahead in most of those States and in some of those States she's significantly ahead however in most of those States her lead is very very marginalist stage and the way that polling works is there's always a large margin of error in individual polls and even the polling average can be um you know can be out at individual elections as we've seen in the UK uh polls have not always correctly predict the outcome of Elections and if we go back to 2016 in the US there was one Princeton um pundit who gave over 98% chance of Hillary Clinton winning and then he had egg on his face when Donald Trump ended winning so these things are always um best taken with a pinch of salt and actually what the Pauling is telling us at the moment is that Harris is marginally ahead in the polling but essentially it's something like a 5545 proposition at the moment Harris is marginally ahead but essentially if we if we think about this in terms of possible universes in the future 45% of the time roughly Donald Trump's going to become president 55% of the the time Harris is going to become president and I'm a bit of a poker player in my spare time if you get it all in with a king versus any old pocket pair is going to be roughly those odds and in PA parin we would call that a coin flip so the reality is at the moment we don't know but if you want to have an idea as we approach election day of who's going to win the best thing you can do is look at state level polling for those key swing States and that's going to put you in a good position position to make some kind of prediction albeit a probabilistic prediction about who's going to win well that's all for me from this video as you can see it's getting dark here so I best finish um don't forget to like And subscribe do check out my other videos for now goodbye best wishes