AMAZON DOWN 8%, JAPANESE INDEX COLLAPSES, JOBS DATA | MARKET OPEN

Jobs data good morning everybody welcome back to another episode of the market open it is Friday August 2nd 8:46 a.m. thank you everybody for being here uh the markets are red they are red once again they were read yesterday after hours after we had Amazon earnings we talked about Amazon earnings we'll go deeper today in terms of why Amazon was not really able to save their stock yesterday even though I thought they had a great earnings uh and this morning we got the number that we did not want to see a number that was higher than most projections for what the number could be and that was the unemployment number and that is why you're waking up to a very red portfolio uh we'll see what happens as the Market opens I think we're going to get some more pain but maybe we find a bit of a base uh as the market kind of digest this news but unemployment in the United States of America is now 4.3% % up from 3.4 a year ago and up from 4.1 a month ago we added 114,000 jobs in July below expectations of 176,000 these were the nonfarm payrolls there's no way to sugarcoat this this is the data that I think implies what could be the start of things going sour now look I think there's a lot of nuance to this and we'll get into all that Nuance today there's a lot of arguments around what a Fed rate cut does what it means why the FED technically wanted this to happen I mean it's quite frankly going according to the plan for the fed and they don't really care that stocks are down because of this but at the end of the day Hershey's yesterday said the consumers weakening Wayfair yesterday said the consumer weakening McDonald's Starbucks Nike all these companies have been saying the consumer weakening we finally got some real hard evidence with the unemployment rate going up 0.2% in one month because unemployment is going higher that means people have less jobs they have less money if they have less money to spend then boom you have a consumer that is weak uh and that's why the Market's down that's why the market is down now granted let me say I do think there may be some potential to buy the dip today I think the Market's already recovering sight slightly I say slightly because the absolute worst part of the dip is uh it did seem to so far uh kind of stop in the in the in the pre-markets what do I mean by that well Robin Hood 1920 was in the pre-markets now it's 1950 that doesn't make it that much better those 30 cents but it does go to show all right at least the bleeding get stopped a little bit uh so when the Market opens I think we'll have more pain but intraday because of how bad it was yesterday it's going to be very curious to see does big money come in and kind of take a step and decide they want to buy the dip or do things just continue to get bad which is also very possible so maybe today has an opportunity to buy the dip maybe buying the dip today means you're you know you're buying a dip that's going to keep dipping we're going to have to find out as the Market opens in the next few hours let's see how bad it is Amazon we'll talk more about them they're down 9% in the pre-market I have a reason why they're down but in general given the jobs number that just came out obviously the market uh is taking them down even uh a little bit more uh what else do we have we have iwm that's down 3.39% shout out to Tom Lee this trade is not going that well I don't know if it recovers but 209 on uh on IW Apple 216 that's down 1% Snapchat $10.30 that's down 19% that was from their bad earnings Intel is down 24% Intel just broke its uh major level of support at 23 in the pre-markets now it's at 22 again every stock got pushed lower in the pre-markets because of that jobs data so that's why we got Intel going down S&P 535 down 1.4% S&P still up almost 14% year to date so you know you could argue hey that's not normal for the S&P to be up that much in any year even in the first eight months so that one may have some more room to fall the NASDAQ 450 that's down 2% Nvidia is at 103 Nvidia below 100 I think is going to be very hard to get let's see what the appetite is for the market it was already at 101 in the pre-market now it's at almost 104 so it's again recovering a little bit uh in the pre-markets which is why there may be a reason to to buy the dip today Dereck wall says good morning I love crashing Market meltdowns they always say the time to buy is when you are scared shitless well that is one thing that I think is going to be tested today as well the time to buy and the time to get the best deal is when everyone is scared and no one wants Nvidia at 100 no one wants Robin at a 19 you know no one wants uh the S&P at 535 when it was just at 565 it's just going to be a question to see how many people actually step in and take advantage of that Palante tier is down 5% 2479 on the bright side if you have covered calls your covered calls are probably going to be saved or you can probably buy them back today at a much cheaper price given pound here is much below $27 $28 again I'm curious to see the rebound a lot of this is not really a palent your reason for falling a lot of this is algorithms and a broad-based market selloff so um if we have a reversal of that you know things might go up if not uh they might continue to have some pain gold is up 1% a lot of geopolitical tensions that are going on right now so that's why gold is up as well Tesla down 2.49 to1 maybe we see 180 on Tesla Microsoft's at 409 Shopify is down 6% Hershey's down another 1% Etsy down 2.3 after being down 7% yesterday coinbase ironically the Bitcoin plays because Bitcoin is green for some reason I don't know why money's going to bitcoin amidst all this craziness but money's going to bitcoin I would I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin melts down with the rest of the market because Bitcoin performs honestly with the NASDAQ but look at this green candle bitcoin's at six almost at 65 bitcoin's kind of the safe spot I guess right now uh TFC Regional banks are down really there's no safe spots in the market I mean let's check Verizon typical value name Verizon safe all right so there so so your value names are kind of giving you a little bit of safety let's try birkar half the way BRK B oh even birkar is down that's probably because apple is down apple is down about 1% in The pre-markets Meta is down 1.6% 489 um what else do we have we have Amazon we have Microsoft well we looked at all the max 7 let's look at the semis names let's look at the semis semi are all down except AMD AMD got beat up so hard yesterday that that AMD is actually Marvel is down 3% Taiwan sem's down 6% nvidia's down 5% Intel down 23% asml down 6% Micron down 4% Dell down 5% arm down another 4% that's that's probably normal arm should be down and then qualcom down 3% it's red folks it's red red red red red uh PayPal looked pretty safe yesterday yeah well where's PayPal today also Sofi back below seven Sofi at 682 PayPal 6415 down 2% what are you guys thinking what are your raw thoughts what are your raw thoughts I I want to like like I know today is one of those days where you want to to lean into the fear and fearmonger and all that stuff but I don't know man this is kind of what the FED wanted it's part of their plan for those that are just joining the FED wanted to see the US economy um add way less jobs than expected they wanted the unemployment rate to go up I think this all but guarantees inflation's coming down dramatically and then as a result we're getting the rate cut the question's going to be is that rate cut going to be enough is that rate cut going to be enough uh I want to cry oh my gosh I look I don't think I don't think crying is the most effective thing here we we're all big boys and big girls here investing money into the markets this is what happens when you invest in the markets It's Been a Good Year know a lot of you your portfolios are still probably up a lot even with the draw down today uh and that's because you know you've been in the markets for a while and definitely if you've been in Market since January things have gone well but my question is how bad do things get do we go to 4,800 on the S&P does it really get that bad is it like first of all I think that would be one of the best buying opportunities in the world maybe no one has the cash to to buy it but uh you know how bad does it get 10 you're right here at 3.84 or is this typical August September pain and we uh bounce as we get through the and we have a melt up towards the end of the year maybe the Melt up is not to 6,000 on the S&P but maybe the Melt up is back to 5700 on the S&P back to where we were at the top of July I don't know we're gonna have to see 10 years are falling uh and obviously that's happening because of this unemployment rate that we got right now the FED is now starting to price in or the market starting to price in a r cut the Market's also starting to price in a little bit of a recession theoretically given where the vix is right now and given where the tenure is trading at vix volatility Index right now is at 21 so it's up it's up 14% today itself it's up 14% in the premarket over the past five days it's up 20% uh obviously showing that things are are pretty volatile big boys can cry real men and women cry oh my god dude just joined do we correct 10% yes so a 10% correction on the S&P from the top is 509 for the QQQ it's four I did the numbers last night it's like four is it 434 I think it's 434 so we're looking for a little bit more pain actually on the S&P on the and on the q's for a real 10% Peak to trough um correction but so far so far we don't see that yet the shake is here we're we're we're still we're not poor enough where we can we we can still afford the shake for now so the shake is indeed here is this because of Harris and no cut it's definitely because of no cut uh mark are pricing in a Harris victory that is correct you can believe that or not the markets are pricing that in uh some of parts of the Trump campaign including his pick of JD Vance is not going that well so that is another thing that's hurting markets because obviously if Harris wins not the best for Bitcoin maybe not the best for taxes regulations Etc and that's another kind of overhang on the market we'll get more clarity around that in September but as of now yes that they are pricing in a little bit more of a Harris Victory the market has gone down ever since you want wanted to switch to protein shakes I mean hey dude is I I got to get healthy so if I got to get healthy and crash the markets let's just say I'm giving you guys a good dip that's that's it all right let's get some update on these on these job numbers and keep going from there but I first want to let Steve uh start a little bit it's impossible always to figure out what the stock market's going to do although we see the initial reaction but the unmistakable reaction in the bond market which really started yesterday or the day well actually before then but really picked up speed uh recently as we got under four so there's there's no doubt on how bonds are taken this news Steve yeah I'm very interested Joe the first thing I looked at here was how the FED funds Market reacted we went into this just to set the table a few days ago there was no chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in um uh September we went into this with a 30% and and and I don't know if this is right or real or whatever and as Rick points out this Market can so this thing that Derek just put in the chat Japan stock market plunges 6% we're going to talk about that after this but this happened last night the biggest drop since 2016 kind of insane the nikai index so we'll talk about that right after right after this can be very wrong it can also be very right a 72% chance right now of a 50 basis point cut in September that's where the market is priced Now 50 earlier today caution said because that can only Steve we went from five or six to to one or two it's like how do you get to back to five or six when you only got you know when it's already you know get getting toward you know time is nigh well you can get to five or six by do 50 at one of them you can do it pretty quickly and now I'm looking at the January 25 contract Joe at 413 so do you want to do the math on that is that 120 basis points of of easing 125 that's that is five right there right let me let me just very quickly I want to get to the P I know you want to get to the panel very quickly um I think the story I'm seeing here and I've just glanced at it briefly and I think the story in the economy right now is not that there's a lot of firing or job loss going on there's not a lot of hiring this is a weak report um when it comes to hiring as you get down to what is used to be a pretty normal level 114 we'd be pretty happy with a lot of the strength looks to be in the place where we had it which is private education and health and I want to just see here what the government number is that's plus 17 so that's come off a little bit damn it damn it did I did did I really okay so this is this is the first time in like seven months we did the muted first time in seven months I had a fire analogy too dude I just had a great analogy this is the first time in literally seven months we had the muted dude you got to give me some credit it's been a long time since we did muted remember last time it was like two minutes and 50 seconds and I was really I was using my hands I was Spitting Fire and no one could hear it okay what I was saying was this protein shake might have some [ __ ] crack in it bro I don't know what it's doing right now but um do you think this is the start of a recession or do you think this is simply um a normal ction because and my analogy was there is a difference as as what he said on CNBC between not hiring as much which is what this job support is versus firing so if you have a pizza shop and you're firing employees it's because no one's eating pizza you have less demand therefore recession right you have to literally fire employees if you're a pizza shop and you're just not hiring more waitresses it's because business is okay it's not amazing you have enough demand coming in and you don't literally need that many more people which means economy is not great but econom is not horrible whereas if you're firing econom is horrible let me make a poll of that in the chat So based on that do you think this jobs report which is a little bit less on the firing side more on the lack of hiring side does that mean hey normal correction or recession or at least what is your sort of indication of what you think it means normal pullback or recession again I think we're going to get a lot more data in the coming weeks to kind of let us know which one is happening um I kind of still lean into the normal pullback side I don't think this is start of recession yet uh I think this is more normal pullback this is kind of what happens we haven't had a 10% pullback the entire year August September is always volatile things tend to change markets tend to get excited as stocks get really cheap and if that happens earnings have been good so far for big Tech now if earnings suffer in Q3 then yeah all hell could break loose but if they don't because we get the r cut uh maybe that's what kind of saves it from there it's just Panic selling I definitely think there's an extent to panic selling a lot of this also remember is algorithms like like these stocks don't just fall 5% out of nowhere right A lot of these algorithms that manually control it from hedge funds they adjust whether it's on the buy side or the sell side so I do think that a lot of that is designed to get retail to you know give up shares and panic sell and and take profits or take losses prematurely but that doesn't mean things can't get worse uh in the short term for a lot of these stocks I'm going to be very curious in about 20 minutes we're going to see how the Market opens and if sh hits the fan and things really get bad or immediately buyers step in and they say this is stupid to see Tesla at 210 when it was just at 270 or this is stupid to see uh a novix it was at 18 now it's at 11 you know TFC was at 45 now it's at 42 one of the biggest Regional Banks Meadow was at 5:30 now it's at 485 we're going to really see how the market comes in Robinhood 1925 maybe Robin Hood Falls below 19 I obviously I think that's a buy the dip we'll see if the market steps in as well Snapchat still down 19% as well in the pre-market 2452 is paler support I don't know what paler support is dude I like for the longest pound was establishing a base at 2627 for about a month and then the algorithms took over paler 2470 is not a pounder problem it is a uh jobs report problem macro problem also I kind of like paler 24 before earnings on Monday versus at 29 so we'll see how kind of that shapes up but um I I I don't know what the support is for paler at this point I don't know what the support is for a lot of these stocks I mean you would think the support on Sofi is $7 nope 677 right you think of Robin Hood it's at least $20 nope it's at 1925 so I don't know as the Market opens we're really going to see kind of how bad some of this uh some of this pain becomes someone says ammit definitely we are in the beginning of a recession the consumer sentiment has been telling for some time AI bubble is bursting in consumer sing looking at McDonald's and Starbucks that's a valid bare case we talked about this yesterday I I I don't don't blame anyone who has a be case that the AI bubble is bursting in consumer softening I personally disagree with it right now and maybe that'll change over the coming weeks when we get more data but I think that's a I I can't blame a bear for saying hey this is my bear Cas is why I'm out of the market right now it's a fair argument uh for what we're seeing right now the US tenure is currently still dropping 3.85 we haven't at 3.85 since February but when we had it in February it was for good reasons this one is a little bit more or of a weak reason what does the poll say 65% a normal pullback okay 65% a normal pullback amid can you please call Powell and fix this unfortunately I don't have his number I would love to call him dude here's the thing about pal man everyone's blaming him for not cutting rates I get it I want to hop on that train and blame him as well because when your portfolio is red you need someone to blame besides yourself right so is the easy target I just don't know if he could have definitively cut rates in July unless he himself stepped up in that meeting that private meeting with the 12 presidents and said guys things are getting bad we need to cut he probably said that but he said that in a way that was very nonchalant he needed to step up in that meeting and be like it is time to cut and I don't think he had the political Capital to do that with the other fed presidents now granted that's what determines if you're a good fed president or not I did say on Monday if J pal lands the soft Landing greatest uh fed president of all time if he's late on the rate cuts which as of now looks like he's late but we'll see maybe he maybe he pulls it off I don't want to definitively say that yet uh then he's worse than he's the worst president of all time because he was late on inflation being transitory which I'll I'll give you that because covid stimulus all this like I'll give you I'll excuse that but then if you're late on the on the safety of that with the rate Cuts because because of the same reason because you're you're looking at stupid Antiquated elements of calculating data like shelter as a six-month like what type of we are one of the most economically developed countries in the world and we are using surveys where people from the FED call people in their home where they don't want to be annoyed and they're like hey do you want to buy a home and that's how they use the data to determine if shelter inflation is coming like what type of nonsense is that like how does the FED like it is the most ridiculous way we calculate data there's obviously a lag in it and if that's the reason why we were late on rate cuts it's just you can never trust the FED ever you can never trust the FED ever if that is if this causes you know a massive horrible recession the worst since uh covid or since you know 2022 at least in the stock market so I guess we'll see oh Kathy Wood yeah thank you for this B off so Kathy Wood sold some paler in Robin Hood yesterday she sold 282,000 shares of Robin Hood um 325,000 shares of pounder the weird part is she bought 150,000 shares of madna I I don't understand that I I like I I really don't but she bought madna after s p and Robin did Bop says I'm going to guess Kathy knew this that's why she sold so much hood and pound here there was no other valid reason why she did that yeah I guess she predicted that the jobs report would be bad uh and she sold off some of the growth stocks which is you know a fair a fair calculation by her uh but then buying madna I don't know is mad of the flight to safety in a recession mRNA it's down another 3% in the pre-markets again madna was down yesterday because they cut their um they cut their their outlook for covid vaccines but like I don't know what's so exciting to buy even if they cut their outlook on that so so the point is she she did sell some growth stocks got into madna um but we might see a lot of institutional selling on a lot of different growth stocks if they believe a recession potentially is around the corner zoko says not only are they using archaic surveys but the sample size is too small I agree the sample size is also very very small and like they're trying to they're trying to extrapolate entire elements of data or entire entire narratives around where the economy is based on that which just doesn't seem like it makes uh doesn't seem like it makes a lot of sense let's get another update on jobs um actually no let me let me pull this oh the the the Japan stuff so let's talk about that so so the nikai index it fell 6% last night um I looked at the future and I was just like this is not good so let's talk about this uh the Niki 225 ended 5.8% lower the index big biggest daily drop since March 2020 it extended a global stock route that began following the release of weak US economic data the Japanese Benchmark had already lost 2.5% on Thursday it has now closed at its lowest level since January so again this is not a stock this is an entire index in Japan going down basically 8% in the course of a week which is not good now why did this happen well on Wednesday the bank of Japan raised interest rates by5 basis points to 0 25% in its second rate hike this year and announc plans to taper its Bond buying by half so they're going to buy 20 billion bonds a month versus 40 billion bonds months from the United States Traders expect more rate hikes to come later this year as the Central Bank tries to contain inflation there is inflation in Japan slight inflation which is why the Japanese Bank raised rates but the US unemployment number is being bad as they are this morning and as they were yesterday with uh initial jobless claims that also LED to the the claps the hike has narrowed the difference in interest rates between the United States and Japan which has pushed the Japanese Yen higher against the green back which is why they rais the rates to push the Yen higher the dollar has fallen by more than 4% against the Japanese currency since the middle of last month so you've got all this stuff happening in Japan you've got the United States with our own unemployment issues and then you've got Iran swearing they're going to retaliate against Israel for assassinating one of the or or they like I don't they didn't exactly shoot him they had a bomb I was reading about it last night inside of the uh I don't know how they got the bomb inside of Iran he was hiding in some Hideout and then boom like he blew up uh for killing one of the leaders of Hamas right so Iran's like we're gonna get Israel for that then you've got all the stuff going on in Venezuela I don't know if you guys are seeing some of that stuff um uh with Nicholas Maduro who basically said he won in an election where he really didn't win and so now people are revolting against Maduro because they want to free democracy like there is so much [ __ ] going on across the world and it's just it's just a lot right now it's just a lot and as a result we're seeing some volatility baked in Matt says well I woke up this morning so that's good that's correct at least at least we all woke up at least we all have our health right that's what we can say in the morning at least for now we all have our health so that's okay um oh man oh man oh man oh man he wants to fight Elon yeah Elon wants to fight him too like like it's it's kind of ridiculous dude it is kind of ridiculous but a lot of [ __ ] is happening across the world and then on top of that obviously yesterday um the initial job Gs are bad and then the big number that a lot of people forgot is ISM ISM was also horrible ISM came in at 43 that was the lowest since 2020 and that was bad let's we'll talk about Amazon in a second but that ISM number just shows that the manufacturing is slowing down dramatically it's the worst number since June of 2020 and because it's the worst number since June of 2020 um there you go that is why you know things are things are taking a nasty beating right there uh Isn manufacturing came in at 43 which means we are Contracting worse since June of 2020 so the big theme that we had yesterday at the end of the market close was that bad news is bad news not bad news is good news which bad news again was good we have this weird toxic relationship with bad news last it was like it was stupid dude it's like oh unemployment is rising great inflation's coming down Market goes up it was the weirdest thing ever now it's like no no no unemployment's Rising people don't have money shit's hitting the fan bad news is bad news so this morning's job data was terrible as well correct so bad news now is actually bad news and as a result of that bad news being bad news we are going to see uh more pain in the broader markets if we keep getting bad news okay let's talk about Amazon let's talk about Amazon so uh we covered Amazon last night Amazon right now is at 166 down uh 93% I think at 150 Amazon gets to the uh the the no it's already at the 200 day moving average at 167 so it's actually already below that so I mean if you're waiting for the 200 day for Amazon to buy the dip you're you're there now if it you know if this if they take the sucker down to like 155 is I personally think that's a great opportunity but obviously if we're getting into a recession all bets are off the table right do we go back to 100 do we go back to 120 we'll see what happens but uh overall they they had a fantastic earnings Cloud 19% year-over-year growth advertising missed by 200 million so slight Miss um and that and and and that was what the street was upset with along with Revenue missed by 600 million I know 600 million sounds like a lot but it's relatively inconsequential in the context of Amazon when you're dealing with the numbers that they're dealing with 148 billion versus 148.5 billion the reason I think Amazon is down the reason I think Amazon is down um is is is because of their operating margins and I did a Twitter spaces last night with a bunch of people uh a lot of Amazon bills and they kind of agreed that look those operating margins going down to 99.9% uh from 10.7% that's something the street doesn't like now they beat expectations of 99.2% operating margins is how much money they make on like the actual business itself not just AWS but like all the the 53 billion dollar of of Chinese crap they sell on the website how much do they make off that it was 3.7% 5 quarters ago and you could see it started going up to 5.7 so 7.8 7.8 10.7 it peaked last quarter which is why I think the stock had a little bit of a run after the earnings and then it went down again not the biggest deal in the world I think it's a slight blip long term this is not a big deal at all but I think shortterm if you're curious why Amazon is down that and the advertising Miss is probably why we're seeing some volatility along with the fact that maybe we're starting to price in a recession now one thing someone said on the Twitter spaces last night that I thought was really interesting is that if Amazon can start selling more high margin products AKA medicine Pharmaceuticals we know they have pill pack which they're trying to do this whole pharmaceutical ship to your door lowcost uh service that could increase their operating margins by a lot because obviously medicine has way better margins than selling cheap water bottles from China and that could get those operating margins closer to 11% which I think the street would love and they would definitely get this bad boy over 200 along with cloud and its growth so maybe that's one way that Amazon can increase its operting margins now Andy Jassie on the call was exceptional I think his EXP exp of AWS his explanation of the it server buildout his explanation of how they're going to be monetizing AI along with his explanation of how hard it is to create the correct AI cloud in a way that makes the uni economics profitable for Amazon but also um uh scalable for the end users that need the AI part of aws's cloud it was a really good Vision that he laid out and he was black and white he wasn't sugar coating anything it was very clear I thought the stock would recover a little bit when he was talking just like when Satia was talking because I mean of the best calls I've heard all year but the stock didn't care too much and so I guess the market at this point is just not willing to give Amazon the premium yet and we'll see what happens um later in the future but that's what we have right now what you're saying makes sense but if the expectations were below that than IDK if that's why it's down 10 per. I don't think that's the only reason that's down 10 per. yeah I don't think operating margins are the only reason it's down 10% I think you know the reason I think it's down quite frankly is the guidance raise was small if if not not bare uh on the guidance pH like it either missed expectations or was very small I think it like slightly missed but also advertising was another another reason people thought it was down they they wanted to do 13 billion they did 12.8 now is it down 10% on Advertising like Miss by 200 million or topl line revenue by 600 million maybe but I think under the hood there's deeper issues around operating margins that get Amazon to be or that gets the street to be a little upset one thing I know for sure if those operating margins were higher than 10.7 I think the stock would not be down because I think they would have clearly shown cost efficiencies and their ability to uh make money in a way that's you know what the street wanted to see for years but as of now down 9% you could say for a variety of reasons the biggest reason I think is because the jobs data this morning that obviously came in worse than expected paler right here at 5% Apple had a good earnings as well Apple's down slightly uh the only problem with apple is they missed in China that's it they missed in China and so because Apple missed in China I think that's but even Apple really wasn't down yesterday I mean Apple was up yesterday I think the only reason they're down right now is because of this jobs data um 85 billion a year iPhone uh did well Mac slightly missed iPad did well uh watch did well Vision Pro not really a real thing they didn't talk about it anymore uh and they said on the call hey the iPhone 16 we're getting ready for the AI roll out the one problem on the call was that someone asked Tim Cook hey what is the uh what is the real use case you think that is is necessary for consumers to upgrade for AI he didn't really have an answer for it he just said we're going to give the best consumer experience for Ai and one thing one bare argument to think about when it comes to Apple is if the consumer is struggling who the hell is upgrading their iPhone right I mean like this is where we figure out how real AI is right so for all the people saying AI is fake I'm G to give you this argument right here this is your be case and it might play out over the next five months if the consumer is weak which we're seeing with a ton of uh data I mean if the consumer is weak and the iPhone says hey you could talk to sir and she can you know like tell you how awesome you are and that's not a good enough reason to upgrade to the iPhone which for now is the only reason I see is you know a unique reason to upgrade to new technology via their AI phone then then people aren't going to upgrade and if people aren't going to upgrade I mean if people aren't going to upgrade you got to really ask yourself is AI starting to be real in the context of the consumer now I think it's definitely real in the context of the Enterprise I think it's definitely real in the context of humanoid Robotics and FSD by the way Brett CEO figure he tweeted last night that he's going to have some big news today for big so hopefully he putss it out during the market open we'll see what he puts out um but um but in general if it's not real for the consumer yet people aren't going to upgrade to the iPhone there's just no way who's gonna upgrade to the iPhone if people aren't gonna if if if there's not a real use case for the a for the AI phone even if the the the the vendors subsidize it AT&T and Verizon like you still got to dish out 500 like AT&T subsidized mine and I have to pay 400 to get to get this one the iPhone 15 so I mean you know 400 it was it was way better than 1200 but like still you got you're asking able to put up hundreds of dollars for a new phone to like talk to Siri right like what is the real use case and Apple has not been the great at communicating that they've not been the great at communicating that so I guess we're gonna have to see I guess we're going to have to see Chad says how are they a serious contender in the AI space yeah I think that's also something that we're going to have to figure out over the next couple years with Amazon as well the one thing they did say that uh that that that um AI is helping them is advertising so they said AI is fueling our advertising recommendations and our sponsored clicks and all this stuff and like AI is making that better which is amazing but the problem is they missed on Advertising now again analyst expectations versus what they report it's always like annoying but you did Miss on Advertising even though you're saying advertising AI is a Tailwind for advertising and so I think that again compounded to why the street was upset even though I feel the sell off on Amazon was absolutely overdone because the quarter particularly Cloud was exceptional so we'll see if the St the the street buys the dip as we get into it we also had a bunch of other earnings so let's talk about coinbase coin is up a little bit coinbase really moves with Bitcoin coinbase uh up on revenues 100% year-over year again coinbase earnings are relatively inconsequential because Earnings we need Bitcoin to go up for coinbase to have any significance so uh doesn't matter too much but coinbase overall had some good numbers Snapchat had horrible numbers again they lost more money Revenue growth sucks daou uh growth is not that good they're down 20% this is like clockwork for Snapchat every single time Mardo Libre had a great earnings if you're if you're long Mardo Libre that's the Amazon on of Latin America uh they beat on the top and the bottom line showed good guidance so Mardo Libre was good and then we had Intel so let's talk about Intel so I don't know how many of you guys saw the tweet I put out yesterday uh we got 10 minutes till the Market opens but there was a horrible story that went viral on Wall Street bets and I posted about it last night uh a junior in college got $800,000 from his grandmother for for his inheritance he put 100,000 in a high yield savings account he put 700,000 into int at $30 so he bought 22987 shares um he is now down about $165,000 as the Market opens today because Intel fell 24% so this was tough this was tough to see I mean it it's just one of those lessons of like hey don't go all in if you have a lot of money it also is one of those lessons of hey when you have someone else's money you definitely don't feel as um as as much of a fiduciary because it's not your money if you work to make 800,000 I could guarantee you're not going to dump it in Intel out of all stocks uh you know just because you're like oh let's see what happens it's like no dude you got the 800,000 from your grandmother his grandmother died two months ago he said I'm only a junior in college as a math major and I don't really have any use for the money nor do I have any debt I'm very fortunate that my parents are paying for my education like I want to feel bad but it also feels like some rich kid who parents are paying for college got a ton of money from his grandmother he's a math major this just goes to show you if you're a Quant that doesn't mean you're good at analyzing the markets and you just dumped it into Intel I've always heard about people losing their inheritance by spending it on garbage instead of investing so I told my parents I'm not going to spend a cent of this money and I'm G to invest all of it and they were proud of me it's just dude it could have picked anything but [ __ ] Intel dude so the good thing is I mean he said he's long for 10 years so theoretically he's not supposed to look at this for the next 10 years right so in 10 years is Intel back at 30 I I think so I think their Foundry business by 2027 starts putting up numbers and Intel comes back I don't think it's dead forever um but it it does suck you know you wake up the next morning and although you're not supposed to look at it for another 10 years you look at it and you're down right so yeah but this is see this is the stuff we're seeing right now at this part of the market where people are getting a bit exuberant they're putting lots of money into certain assets and even those assets that you would think Intel safe at I mean even I thought Intel at 30 maybe goes to 27 Intel's like not supposed the collapse they collapsed and the reason they collapsed and I I I couldn't have expected this but Intel suspended their dividend in Q4 uh starting Q4 they suspended their dividend and as a result of that yeah like a lot of people were only buying Intel for the 1.72% dividend yield wow Intel's at 2190 Intel broke a a big level at 23 23 was a decade low Intel is now going further than decade you're gonna have to go to around 2009 2008 to see these levels on Intel um so so getting rid of that dividend deals obviously was very bad so this was the worst earnings we saw yesterday from the broader Market we also had twio they did well they're up 5% Roku did well uh they're up a little bit right now again Roku and twio were beat up DraftKings did great uh profitable billion dollars of share BuyBacks and uh Revenue came in line with expectations but they are down because they're a growth stock and a growth stock is going to get hit in a recession uh if we're into recession so DraftKings is down 4% uh the Bitcoin stocks are relatively safe micro strategy looks like they're going to another two billion to buy crypto they said in their uh earnings report we are agreeing to get a capital raise of $2 billion y y so looks like they're getting ready to buy even more Bitcoin Square had a decent report uh but they're down 1.83% they were up 3% yesterday door Dash had a great report they're up 6% they were up 14% a lot of people apparently are ordering from door Dash I don't know if that's just people that can afford to pay the crazy door Dash fees or if more people in general just don't want to go out to restaurants which maybe could tell you something about the consumer right if people aren't going to restaurants but they're going to Door Dash even if you know well door Dash is obviously maybe a little less expensive than going to a restaurant but door Dash did well so they're up 5.92% and then Cloud flare also beat on the top and bottom line that's good for paler good for broader SAS companies they're up 3% right now but the big stories yesterday were obviously apple and Amazon and then Intel that uh that fell pretty badly saving gas yeah people save gas if they if they don't have to go to restaurants Sofi 685 correct Sofi below seven bucks uh I do Uber and door Dash more people definitely use door Dash yeah I mean it it showed in their numbers I mean the amount of uh orders they got I think they had the gross orders it was like it was like 30% higher or something than last year I mean door Dash is definitely scaling and that either tells you people don't want to go to restaurants anymore or it tells you a certain subass of the population that can afford all the fees and stuff and they don't care they're buying door Dash because with door Dash you have Uber Eats door Dash you have a bunch of these different services so um it's a competitive business the margins are tough right you'll just go to or the other based on the better fee you get it seems like people are picking door Dash over uh over Uber Eats at least right now but it begs the question what does that mean for the consumer and I think now every earnings report we get given we got this jobs report we're going to try to see oh are people doing door Dash because they don't want to go to the restaurant right are people doing this because they don't want to do this like now the narrative is how can we uh try to infer something about the consumer from every single report that comes out as well um half of those orders are from me shout out to Josh um Intel's a company that is losing market share it is like GM Motors but of semiconductors other semiconductor companies ate Intel's lunch and had dinner too look I don't I don't disagree with you I don't disagree I just think Intel remember intel was at 50 it already fell when it got to 30 which is why a lot of people were trying to park in there for safety um but obviously growth continues to to slow down for I mean they grew less they didn't even grow 1% they declined 1% year-over-year last quarter um and that was a tough thing for now again the at the end of the day America's going to have to make its own chips we can't rely on Taiwan forever so I don't think you have to be bearish Taiwan to be bullish Intel but you do have to believe that if chips are important then Intel's founder business eventually should be profitable it's just they told us a year ago it's not going to be profitable they told us in January it's not gonna be profitable till 2027 so if you buy Intel you have to have that understanding like you have to go long with the understanding of it's going to take four years um but if you don't you know then then in the short term you're obviously going to see some potential pain as well pound is down almost 6% that is correct um so we will see admid are you picking up any poun shares on this dip going into earnings no I haven't bought pter in a while I'm like I need to see Q2 data guys like I at this point I need to see what they're going to put up in Q2 uh pounder's at an incredible run I am overweight pounder so I have no fomo to get more pounder now if we drop to 20 I'm going to load up a lot more I've said that because I think 20 to 21 is a great price that's what I did in May that worked out really well um and I'll do it again if we get there but I want to see the Q2 numbers oh by the way I have a new clip on paler from Dan IES I'll play that after the Bell uh I was listening to a podcast like with Dan Ives um and I didn't even know they would talk about paler but they mentioned paler Dan IES put out a report yesterday through Ed Bush who said um uh uh we pter is going to show momentous AIP growth like they basically implied hey we're going to see like customer conversion monetization all this stuff I don't know if wed bush is being super bullish or they know something that we don't know but uh if they're right then maybe the market rewards it if they're right maybe the market doesn't even reward it given the market given you know given the macro that we're in right now but we got to see that we have to see that and if we don't see that I think paler is gonna you know take a bit of a hit given the macro change same thing with Robin I think Robin's gonna Crush earnings dude I think Robin's absolutely gonna smash but if robinett smashes and the stock is $18 and it goes to 20 it's like you know it's like thanks for getting back to 20 bucks but it's not really a smash right um so really it depends on the macro like next week if things don't get better and Robin and paler report both of them could still get nasty hits after they report simply because the macro is in a tough situation now if the macro rebounds the the vshape on both of those I think could be extraordinary but that's going to be the big question are you willing to hold these things going into the end of the year uh if the uh if the vshape happens or it doesn't paler 2465 Robin it a 1929 Snapchat at 1015 Snapchat every single earnings it falls like if you're a Snapchat shareholder an Institutional share holder you've got to be like annoyed at this thing it's rinse and repeat you buy it at eight you sell it at 13 you do it again every single quarter that one down 20% we'll see if that catches a bid and then Apple slightly up in the pre-market all eyes on Amazon as the Market opens really curious to see what the hell happens to Amazon and uh if they can get some momentum right here down 99.4% markets May recover from this point given all the uncertainty of the week is over now yeah potentially I mean we got all the data we needed we took the big crash I would say this is you know a pretty red dip and uh we have some geopolitical stuff but if that doesn't come to fruition over the next couple of days maybe markets recover from that but now it's time to see I think we can all agree the fed's cutting in September now it's a question of are they cutting by 25 or 50 are they cutting by 75 basis points because like if the economy actually is slowing down you need to cut and you need to cut fast um before things get a really really bad all right here we go it is Friday August 2nd thank you everybody for being here 9:30 a.m. the stock market is now open all right wake your ass up the markets are open Amazon uh down 9% pretty flat nothing no bids moving up or down on Amazon kind of just kind of just sticking there now it's down 10% all right now we're getting some selling paler 2472 Robin Hood looks like it's going to go below 19 1906 on Robin Hood paler 2468 uh on the day Snapchat is at 1011 right now Snapchat is at 1011 coinbase is at 2113 Amazon 166 Apple at 219 meta at 490 Sofi 692 little bit of recovery there on Sofi I got a green candle from 685 to 695 pter 24 75 also a little bit of a green candle right there uh Verizon is up 1.4% so value catching a bid right now S&P is down 1.4 at 535 QQQ at 450 down 2% on the day uh open door down 12% Open Door took a beating yesterday after earnings Nvidia 103 Nvidia not falling below 100 yet it's getting a bid right there at 103 we'll see if that continues arm down 7% AMD is at 133 AMD is green AMD was down 10% yesterday so makes sense that that's green clean spark 148 9 crowd strike at 219 SMH semi ETF that was down 6% yesterday it's down another 5% today Carnival Cruise Lines 1487 the cruises are not safe unfortunately from the recession so those are getting hit squares getting hit Tesla 213 that's getting hit down 2% Crocs are down 5% Microsoft's down 1% Amazon Robin Hood recovering right here 1927 from 1905 paler 2467 got a red candle Intel down 26% Intel is taking a shling she taking a shacking right now Amazon 165 Apple at 220 wow Apple goes green apple goes green looks like the sell side is coming out with some research to get people to continue buying Apple I on the Twitter spaces I was on last night we had a really good conversation about Apple and there was there was a big apple bear there and he was just like I have no idea how the sells side with this $285 by the way Dan IES raises price Target to 285 with all these crazy price Targets on Apple what they think people will upgrade to the iPhone 4 you know like what is the reason like why would people buy this new iPhone for all these AI enabled features when like if I ask you to name one of those features the only thing you can name is Siri right and it's a reasonable point now I still think people will upgrade I don't know if it's going to be the extent that apple is planning but I still think people will upgrade but you're going to need a 100 million people to upgrade for the you know the Dan IES of of the world to be correct on this $280 price Target theory that they have on Apple Bitcoin at 65,000 S&P at 535 QQ at 450 pound to 454 Robin now falling again at 1915 Snapchat 980 they're down 23% coinbase at 213 Amazon flat at 166 Amazon Amazon's not really moving too much um Amazon's kind of stuck a defense contractors are green yeah and it's weird paler is not getting any of I guess pter is not really being considered as a defense contractor today lock Martin is green um Ron I would imagine is also green yeah Ron's green as well yes the defense contractors are catching a bid right here uh coinbase coinbase is down just a little bit again coinbase moving with Bitcoin Bitcoin is doing okay today uh K's right here at 218 yeah markets are red but it's not I mean it's kind of the red we already saw in the pre-market S&P is going down a little bit more we're not seeing like you know like three four five% on really any stocks yet or indices um so I guess we guess we have to wait a little bit more to see how bad it really gets TJ will be on today as well we're going to look at uh some of the blood in the public portfolio and see how to navigate that from an options perspective so we'll talk about that but yeah a lot of these stocks are down they're just not crazy crazy down from the pre-markets admit I've owned a Samsung S10 for five years and plan to upgrade to an iPhone for several reasons AI integration is a big one I like some of the use cases they address look I agree there's going to be a big upgrade cycle for AI on the iPhone my question is if the consumer actually does weaken by October November how much of those use cases are enough to like like I upgraded my iPhone after three years because I felt it was time it was three years I was like all right it's time to get the new one um if I mean I I know people have had their phones for a while but outside of that you're GNA need a real reason to get people to think hey you can like you know talk to your phone and it can type up your email more effective like it's just and apple hasn't communicated that yet like I like WWDC was like in my opinion horrible communication of what the benefit is of AI on your phone we got to make commercials that really speak to people about that and so far over the past year Apple has sucked at communication AKA division Pro they have not communicated any value proposition on that product either so not bearish Apple because I think at the end of the day the only person that brings AI to the consumer is Apple I would not short Apple but uh they're going to need to figure out if the consumer weakens how the hell to get people to still believe they need these phones where is paler paler are we going below 24 24 25 wow 23 on paler would be something we haven't seen in almost two months that would be quite the quite the price level if we haven't seen that in a long time uh so someone says what what do you mean by recession I don't see people actually stop eating or purchasing that much less well see I agree qualitatively there is an argument that like everyone's out like I was just at the Brooklyn Bridge the other day everyone was out there they were eating their you know $10 ice creams and like uh buying drinks and all this stuff so yeah I I feel you there's an argument that everyone's still out but there also an argument that maybe there's a bifurcated America and certain parts of America are not able to just uh go out and buy a $10 ice cream so fight 678 because [ __ ] is really hitting the fan I know a lot of people in the chat are more of the people that invest their money more financially literate people that care about the markets you know it's not saying you're the richest person in the world but you do know about building your wealth and you at least care about building your wealth but the majority of America is not like that dude majority of America does not give a [ __ ] about even an emergency fund you know so if that's the case that's the consumer that that potentially is weakening uh pretty badly carvon is down 4% Tesla to 213 Microsoft 412 S&P 534 yeah look we're getting a green candle here that's that's what I'm saying like we're red but it's not red more from the pre-market red it's like flattish or greenish catching a bid Robin just went below 19 so Robin really red today down 7% uh pter 2425 Intel 21 Intel looks like might go below 21 Intel now down 27.5% at least on the indices we are seeing a little bit of green and potentially a bottoming out from that pre-market level Wonder pounder could build an operating system for a phone that could bring AI to the consumer better than Apple I just think pter is not focused on the consumer I think they definitely could but a consumer company is a different type of DNA like pter has always been Enterprise that's why whenever said when everyone thought poun could you know build a consumer product I never bought into that I think AIP now which is how like developers can download AIP right now and start like using it that's a pseudo consumer product but like a product that scales to billions of people like an operating system for your health and your data I think apple is going to win that game very easily you know and pter just their culture is not building consumer products because again carp doesn't like consumer products he thinks a lot of Silicon Valley is uh you know toxic in terms of how they monetize attention all that stuff so I think it's Apple's game to win but the question is if Apple's actually going to provide a use case that's meaningful enough to to win it what pter needs to do is create a new architecture for calculating realtime data for the Federal Reserve paler needs to get a like a like I don't know call it a $200 million five-year contract from the FED to just fix the way they calculate data I mean what is paler it's taking a lot of unstructured data and deriving insights from it at its core you're telling me paler can't take the shelter data the oil data the consumer data and then tell the FED if we should cut or not I feel like pter would be better than anything at figuring out those conclusions um and so maybe that's like the real use case in in terms of the Federal Reserve and that would help the entire country that would help the entire world if you help the US economy but okay here we go we got Chad from palent here we have that architecture already so if anyone works for the FED in the chat can you please DM Chad and can you please like can you please talk to your boss Mr japal and get him to realize that people calling people on the phone s&f 535 to figure out if rent is too high in the United States of America is an Antiquated system to determine if we should raise rates or not like it is so obvious paler could take millions of pieces of data that the FED looks at retail spending consumer spending ISM data jobless claims yada yada yada put them all together ontologized them and then be able to give you insights that maybe aren't perfect but are way better than what jpow and little buddies are doing in in in their private meetings trying to figure out if they should raise rates or not I think that's a huge use case for pounder um and and I wish paler or I wish at least the FED would consider that in the context of paler uh another name thank you for the Super Chat yeah your analysis of p is correct very custom they provide a custom instance created to meet your needs from my understanding yeah 100% that's why they get compared to like consulting firms because they're very custom but at the end of the day they're selling a software product that is you know they help you so that's the Consulting part but they're not really charging for the help they're charging more so for the software itself here's Dan IES on paler last night so I found this no one's probably seen this because you would have to watch this podcast um this podcast is where they talked about it with Scott Galloway and they go deeper into paler don't like them but that's when that's transitioned from government to would be paler paler it's the same theme like pal very controversial some don't like them but that's one that's transitioned from government to Enterprise and that's Palantir and Dan Ives probably one of the best Pure Play AI names out there in terms of use cases from a software perspective could you explain I think palent is very interesting company I think it's unclear to a lot of people what paler actually does could you explain what the business is and how it's benefiting I mean if you go back historically black box they work with a lot of three-letter agencies you know in the US as well as abroad on the government side massive what's called Big Data technology think about it's like an Enterprise algorithm blackbox it's an artificial and what I view is probably one of the best AI platforms out there me and Scott work at a company we want to use AI in our company H how we don't know what the use cases are we go to paler they look at our data go into our systems they come out and they say these are your use cases this is how you could use data this is how you could actually profit from it and we got paler earnings coming up next week I would assume that if if palena is the key beneficiary then we'd better hope that we're seeing some strength on their income statement it seems like that might be a bellweather for the AI industry as a whole you want to look at you want to see in Microsoft you want to see in Amazon Cloud you want to see of course in Nvidia in terms of what demand paler and use cases if you're triangulating those are the ones where now they could guide conservative and the stock could sell off a stock and move up but in terms of just like taking the noise out of the system for anyone watching follow where Cap backs demand spending You could argue where the valuation is but that's that's really what the focus should be so there you go Dan I talking about paler and again this is you know love or hate Dan IES uh that podcast Scott Galloway's podcast I'm sure a lot of people that listen to it the Prof G show they probably don't know what the hell P her is so this is why you need people like Dan IES you know going across all these media uh platforms and talking about paler and I thought he did a great job explaining it now we're gonna see in Q2 kind of how this all plays out in the context of paler uh we'll have TJ on in just a minute guys and we'll go through the public portfolio and see how we're going to navigate some of the options that are underwater Rob right here at 1888 down 6.7% pound here 2451 down 6% S&P is recovering a little bit it was at 533 now it's at 536 so finding potentially a little bit of a bottom uh PayPal 6248 Sofi 686 Sofi is also up from 665 iwm all right let me get a reading from the chat let me get a reading from the chat what is your current assessment of Tom Lee what do you think is going on in Tom Lee's head what do you think's happening I'm very curious about this because I really don't want to see Tom Le's reputation go to [ __ ] or for him to become you know a pseudo Cathy wood in terms of how he's perceived and I think he's at such good calls I don't know if he gets the iwm call wrong let's assume two worlds one world is with the where the iwm call is wrong he's dead wrong iwm goes back to 180 he's dead wrong do you think that hurts Tom Lee's overall brand I think it it smid a little bit but over all I think look you're not going to be perfect right I I've get things wrong everyone Bill Amman gets things wrong everyone gets things wrong I don't think you can necessarily be bearish Tom Lee for that I think the Bears that hate him because he's been right for two years they're going to use it as a way to hit back at him but I don't think that means Tom Lee uh you know the brand of Tom Le is is down the other world is where Tom Le is right and iwm actually does outperform because we're not heading it into a recession and we see the real rotation it's one of those two things that happens either one or the other and I'm hoping it's the other dude I'm hoping it's the one where iwm rebounds but I don't think he necessarily gets into a lot of pain if he's if he's just wrong on this what a crew Tom Lee admid bill akman was that narcissistic did I just put myself in the same sentence with Tom Le and Bill acman well Tom Lee was in my dream he I did talk to him in my dream so he's liked a bunch of my tweets so Tom Le is mostly right uh so if he's not always but that's okay yeah that's how I feel dude I mean like at the end of the day he was for a long time on this Market if you got the iwm call wrong it is what it is right like small caps was a bit of a risky call to make I still think there's a chance it outperforms we just got to see what happens over the next month maybe this is just August volatility and September October this thing goes back up but I don't think we can necessarily get mad at him for getting one call wrong uh given how much he's gotten right so let's see I guess uh I guess let's see Tom Le is usually right because he's usually bullish that is also true but remember he's bullish in a world in which people are usually bearish right so that's that's the thing I think we have to give him credit for it's like especially the last two years when people were dead bearish he just turned out to be more bullish you know um so I guess we'll see I guess we will see all right folks let's bring on TJ we got a public portfolio that's going through a little pain just like everyone's portfolio is going through some pain we're going to navigate it I think this is going to be a good episode because we're going to try to figure out from an option A wheeler perspective hey when things go in the money how do you deal with it what do you do psychologically what do you do how do you think about rolling it how do you think about getting ass signed on some of these options and so uh we're gonna navigate all of that right now with TJ the wheel deal what's up TJ you got the boxing gloves on we got it you gotta Come Out Swinging baby oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy what's that what's up man it's time to the business of buying stocks y'all should be [ __ ] excited there's good deals out there finally this shit's been overpriced for a while admit I haven't heard your stream I don't know your thoughts are don't care bro [ __ ] is finally attractive from a pricing perspective and we got money we got Capital we got conviction now we just need to make sure that the money is in the right spots so we are in a really really good spot here TJ Joins because we're prepared for this when you aren't prepared look in the mirror you're the only one to blame when you're not prepared guys like bankroll management is a big big thing doing this you know selling puts selling calls collecting premium it's all Rosie it's all hunky dory until sh goes sou so now how are you gonna manage it yeah real quick let me just give a shout to Christian Christian thank you for the Super Chat Tom Lee is in shook he also calls Bitcoin to 1 15 150k yeah and I think another narrative is this Bitcoin narrative if it actually gets you know closer to those $100,000 Levels by the end of the year but we'll see maybe this is some short-term volatility and maybe he ends up being right on a lot of things at the end of the uh at the end of the year so TJ before we get into it I mean you already said how you're feeling but uh I'm assuming you're feeling good because now stocks that you wanted to buy are at better prices and you're more excited well the first thing that I look at whenever there's a dip that I I mean truthfully I didn't think it was going to happen until after the election just to be honest with you like let's call it spade a spade the reason that you set your portfolio up accordingly is because you're looking 60 to 90 days out doing what we do and you expect that the market holds certain levels or not why wouldn't you just wait for this to happen but I don't have a crystal ball and based on everything the way that it was looking uh every you know pricing and uh the rate cuts and everything of the sort I thought that we were going to be golden until the uncertainty of the election creeped up around you know late October November remember that's what I thought was going to happen right I am not a good prognosticator bro like I mean just look at my track record on on on buying not at the bottom you know what I'm saying because I don't that's a very hard game to try to win so uh anyway now we just got to adjust accordingly we got to look at the positions and be like okay now that we're here is this really a high conviction play does it have the PO potential so we can turn it into an investment or was it just a trade right right or was it just a trade and and you have to be honest with yourself by the way do y' all see that my face looks a little skinnier a it I've lost like bro I went on the covid weight loss program is that the ozempic program no went I got Co I I got Co yeah we got Co while we weren in anguila in the Caribbean so our vacation got cut short and boy it's a real easy way to lose 15 pound just so you know yeah I'd imagine I'd imagine yeah so anyway Let's uh you're ready to see the you're ready to see the Carnage bro I'm ready to see the Carnage let's and again shout out to TJ I'm putting his YouTube in the chat he's one of the most transparent guys on YouTube so uh I know a lot of people have Carnage in their portfolio today we're going to see one of them publicly and learn how a professional wheeler is navigating it so here we go so let's start out with the Project X uh scoreboard if you will if you want to do a little deal so we have done a really really good job here collecting premiums but we have total open collateral of 9671 100 and I just did this before uh went live so this is actually pretty accurate as of about 10 minutes ago down $888,000 on shares that we have bought with that money but that is not amid's fault let me be very very clear because there's something that happened in this portfolio with monies that was allocated to amid's project but I had to take the bull from the by the horn because a certain stock presented an opportunity that I have been looking for for about two or three years so that stock is going to be taken out of this equation I just gonna amid is literally finding out for the first time do you know what might be talking about is Crow strike no I have no idea then when when let's back up the tape a little bit a minut you're a smart guy remember we had that episode where I got really really excited when you presented a ticker to me and I go you finally brought me a stock that I've been eyeballing for a while oh I think it's Intel Intel yes yeah yeah yeah well I think we can keep Intel part of our kind of project because at the end of day I I signed off on that too I was like yeah we're we're we're big in it now then you heard it here on the chat guys you heard it here on the chat yeah look I signed off at Intel at 30 so screw it now we're now we're someone said grinder oh I wish it was grinder this crowd is just so what we have 2500 shares of Intel anyway let's look at the portfolio so first off let's just start by let's just start with this do it where we're just right here okay so everything's been hunky dory since we started this project right we just go on we're essentially busting out our chest flexing our arms and being like hey this shit's easy right so fo soall collect premium we showed them how to make six figures in a short amount of time right yeah but now we got a wheel right now we got to test our conviction we've got to Tex test the investment thesis and we got to be very very good storage with money we got to manage Capital now right we have to be we have to be better uh capital allocators if you will because when everything's down there's no reason to have a trade in your portfolio if you can have an investment correct correct and admit can you define to me for you what does that mean what is a trade and what is an investment an investment to me is at least five years you believe there's a long-term thesis you're willing to DCA which means for the first four years you might be red you know so if we're going to go long Intel we might be red until 2027 until they change but given the ability to lower our cost based along with selling covered calls it can still make money but you're not trying to get in and out of it whereas something like a path was obviously a trade when it was so whenever there's only a certain amount of capital to go around what I do is let's just say like it's six or seven stocks this is like fishing right like you have like six or seven poles in the water and you finally caught the fish that you wanted but then you have to go deal with these other damn poles because they caught fish too but you don't even care what on the line because it's not a keeper those are my trades so this is a good opportunity to cut those loose if it's a it's a very minuscal loss if you will right right right we have the money so that we can have the money freed up for the investment if that makes sense and to me that just goes under the the cost the cost of goods sold the cost of doing business right right you know because if I knew which ones were going to bought them and they were just going to be investments from the beginning doesn't understand a reason that I wa to do that right and no one knows you know like everyone can point fingers at the end of the day no one freaking knows you're taking a hypothetical guess when [ __ ] goes south you have to learn how to navigate that that's whether you're in options crypto real estate whatever it is and it's just part of life and it's part of the nature of being an investor and it's also the responsibility you get for actually wanting to invest your Capital versus putting it in the bank you know like if you're actually going to take a risk with your Capital well in a bull market you might have some times where that risk goes south and you have to deal with that so I agree and we're going to have to figure out how to navigate a bunch of these positions so let's start with some trades that we would potentially like to cut off if if it's even necessary to cut them off to free up the capital so we can focus on the Investments and we kind of take the episode that way if that works for you yep 100% yep so let me go this way make it bigger that's what she said okay we can laugh on on on a red day we can laugh okay I lost the chat okay there it is uh so essentially we have path we have let's just go over here so you want me to show you what I did with Intel yeah so what so we had 25 oh you okay I didn't know you bought this much Intel right we had like 2,000 shares yeah so we're at 2755 average and it gets it gets but wait there's more this is this you did this yesterday again keep in mind keep in mind this doesn't have to be part of your allocation if it doesn't meet the risk threshold for you because at the end of the day I take ownership of all of this you follow me yeah yeah yeah yeah because I know that this is an easy going to 35 or 40 but it's not probably till the end of 2026 2027 but when I do the math on it and calculate the amount of money I can make selling covered calls and also cash secure puts I like the risk reward at these levels for me okay I listened to the entire conference call yesterday and it was not good yeah it was not good but I do think that they're going to write the ship the issue is it's a really really big boat so it's like you know like when they were trying to like turn to Titanic they saw the iceberg they had plenty of time bro the issue is is the icebergs the the Titanic was really really big and the Rudders weren't big enough and they couldn't get away from the iceberg so they crashed and they sun to the the bottom of the ocean right so until is that kind of boat they see the iceberg hopefully they'll be able to steer it and and navigate away from the iceberg before the [ __ ] gets even worse if you will if not I think that CEO is gonna lose its job so we had in our Challenge 25 2500 shares okay so we would have been down basically 20 grand today on those 2500 if you multiply by the number of dollars ints down you bought another 7500 right so I'm going to walk you throw all of it I can confess my sins right so whenever we were at the I was at the little the house at South padro we rolled that covered con we got 1500 remember went from 31 to 31 a month out correct correct that's that trade and then we sold puts at this was after the Stream So I sold puts at 32 because Intel started running up and I wanted to go grab money that I thought we were leaving on the table on these 30 one calls this is exactly what was going on in this little head of mine and then I sold 25 more contracts at 31 I was like essentially positioning myself to buy these shares back so that we could just let them get called away you follow me this is ex like I'm walking you I'll throw the story but then it started tanking a little bit more and I was like well I want to get 2500 more shares at 29 because assuming that I'll probably have to take assignment of these right here and I want to maintain that average at about 30 bucks so this is how it all happened and then I was like okay earnings is going to happen I think that Intel probably bottomed out last quarter this was the thought process and I was like let me just go ahead and scoop up 2 200 shares because I want to graduate this from uh remember I I talked about I have this 25 2550 strategy where I invest 25% of the capital at a certain price and then if it gives me another price I invest another 25% of the total allocation to this position and then if it gives me stupid prices I invest 50% of the capital that I would have liked to have put in if if it would have been at these levels from the very beginning so I'm just following that strategy in real time so I bought 25 200 shares outright and then earning and I sold cover calls on those immediately so essentially I got like a 2830 average on those if you will adjusted cost basis but then until tank after the the earnings came out and they I think they were expecting 10 cents and they came in with two cents or something like that it was not just a Miss dude it was like like a golf shot of mine like I couldn't even not just stay in the Fairway I couldn't find my ball you know was that kind of a Miss yeah yeah and then I bought 2500 shares on the way down at 2624 and I bought 2500 shares at 2419 so this essentially put us at 50% of the total amount of capital that I would like to allocate and that is including the cash secured puts over here at 32 31 and 30 so what what if what did I just say there a minut this is 50% of the capital that I would like to allocate to Intel so essentially you add all of it up if you add if you add the 10,000 shares at 2755 that's 275,000 and some change yeah then you have to add the uh 7500 shares potentially at 32 31 and and 29 that's 50% of all of the money that I would have ever wanted to put into Intel so we still have 50% more that I would like to allocate to this but it would have to be at stupid prices and that's where you come in I'm pretty sure you covered Intel a stupid price but here's my question I'm fine with those 2500 shares why do we want to make Intel a 20,000 share position that's my question because I don't even know why because I'm because I'm trying to swing traded and I would like to have an average of and when I say swing trade it's an investment Horizon from the standpoint that this isn't a swing trade of like buy it on Monday Monday and sell it on Friday this is a long swing trade and it's a very safe place for me to hide money because I don't think Intel is going to 10 I certainly don't think it's going to zero MD Capital shout out right so I think that the bottom has to be pretty pretty close if you just start studying the ratios and everything I mean it's not like the company's going out of business bro they're cutting cost by 10 billion dollars they laying off unfortunately a shitload of people so they're trying to do some very drastic things to to get on the right side of Wall Street so I'm essentially just playing it for a bounce and then if we can get to like 27 to 30 bucks then we can offload half of those shares that we bought over here in the 2021 range and then now our position would be back at maybe 7500 to 10,000 and we would write those up so I feel like uh 40 bucks is the target exit price like I've already decided that on the front it I I agree with the logic I don't have the conviction on Intel the stock like we bought those 2500 shares just to sell some covered calls and it's like whatever but making it 20,000 share I just have to do more research to like really feel well I've been I mean the thing is I've been following the story for about four years and I was in inel previously yeah I don't know like I don't normally time this thing but I sold them at like 46 47 yeah and then it went up a little bit and then it just came tumbling down and kind of doing what it's doing now so I've already I've done this successful campaign once on inel and it's just like a 50 Cent song If you could do it once you could do it twice you know like I just feel like at some point the market is going to scoop it up and it's something that I want to be in like okay let me just ask you these questions do you think Intel's going out of business no but I don't know if the Stock's going back to 30 anytime soon that's the that's the problem and again that's why time Horizon is such a big thing so it becomes okay what would I be able to do with that Capital that's the opportunity cost right these are real big boy decisions that we have to navigate through yeah and and it's something that you and I can talk about more offline so uh yeah I I think I think we just have to do a little bit more research and think is Intel one of those things because let's say we do research and we conclude it's not the thing that we want to be on at that point we keep what we have we sell very very aggressive covered calls we lower our adjusted cost basis to where it's to break even and we cut it loose so that was going to be my plan on the 2500 shares I was like all right we'll sell 25 covered calls at like $23 $24 strikes it's aggressive but can navigate that I don't know if I want to make this to 20,000 shares but again maybe you know a lot more than me on Intel and we have to talk about it I think the one thing that we can do and we'll do it off rather 20,000 Nidia shares yeah but I'm saying it takes it takes a yeah but it D TR be told I don't like Nvidia at these prices y'all gota I mean people have Ro short memories in this [ __ ] game bro where was Nvidia before the split it's basically at these prices 90 exactly so what the [ __ ] everybody act like videos at a discount I mean it's a 140 I'm just saying you can't be a prisoner of the moment you know what I'm saying like nvidia's the darling and all that stuff but I mean my goodness this thing went parabolic for a really long time I mean guys y'all gotta realize that this price movement is very healthy for the market I'm not talking about Intel Intel there's fundamentally something wrong with the company that's why we're going to get these prices for a while so we don't have to be in a hurry to to to to to allocate the rest of the money here yeah I don't think Intel is going to 25 bucks tomorrow you know what I'm saying it's certainly not going to 30 um but Nvidia dude I I want Nvidia to come down to like 80 bucks we'll talk about that position in a second because everybody's I I go through the Twitter feeds and stuff and they're acting like Nvidia is like a great deal AMD is a great deal all these other companies are great deals I already have a prospect in mind for today so I'm feeling amazing because it's Pax loit is working Pax loit is the new drug that they give you for yeah yeah yep yep but I was using a p there I'm feeling amazing there's a stock out there that is very amazing at these prices and it kind of sounds like the word amazing in fact when I refer to this stock I referred to it as the amazing amazing oh I see what you're saying I see what you're saying are we talking about there's a stock out there that I have wanted in this portfolio ever since the day that I sold it and I think that it is finally at very very attractive prices if you look at the mag 7 from a PE perspective and all of those things and I'm talking about Amazon so that's one that how do you feel about Amazon do you think Amazon's going to zero I don't think Amazon's going to zero I just think given the jobs data we got today we're goingon to need some time to see where these prices settle agreed we don't have to make those decisions like on the radar yeah I think Amazon going long Amazon is no no-brainer in my opinion I want to I want to just put it on the radar so anyway guys what we'll do is I will calculate offline so that we'll have it for the next one is we'll calculate the adjust well actually this is not that hard if we go back over here what is the adjusted cost bases on Intel we've collected 11,630 in premiums admit yep and we're out the 27 7,000 so call it 265 is so you divide so our average adjusted cost Bas is about 2650 a share 2650 yep yep what is what is Intel trading at now 20 21 is $20.90 2079 yeah so so I think that we it's now the the adjusted cost base is going to trickle up to about 28 and some change if we take assignment on all of those other shares we don't have to do that we can we can always roll these if we want and kind of let everything play out we can roll these cash secured puts Kick the Can down the road 30 to 60 days keep the same strike Price play it for a balance that way the position doesn't get as big you know those are options that we have at at those are options that we have you know you always have options with options but at the end of the day we can't act like those trades aren't on the books because they are you follow me yeah and then the cool thing is is that covered call printed money the reason that it's important to know your adjusted cost bases guys is because I already know that on the next round of covered calls I can pick a 25 or $26 strike price on these 50 on these 50 Cur puts or now or now it's going to be uh a 100 I'm sorry cover calls it would be 100 covered calls on Intel right so that's what's going on with Intel dude I don't think Intel needs to dominate the uh the uh the that's the thing I I don't think to dominate because at the end of the day it's about opportunity cost right and like right Intel's fine I don't I don't I I have to do a lot more research to think if it's even worth getting to know that big of a position but so let's keep it going we obviously know that path is a trade so let's look at that little stinker over here because that was uh Me farting around and buying like 2,000 shares so luckily we're not down that much on this position you see it's so bad that there was an error loading the shark I would imagine all the brokerages are having some errors today right everybody's Panic selling out crazy bro I don't know what's wrong with people yeah so anyway p is at 11:28 and we're in it for I think it's 12:15 12:15 and uh then there's cash secured puts at 1250 I believe let me see yeah so there's C there's 20 cure puts at 1250 so we that expire today's the second right today's the second yes August second okay so these expired today so this again this is a decision that needs to be made you co adding another 20,000 202,000 shares or Let's Kick the Can down the road to 8:30 and uh and hopefully there's a bounce there that way P doesn't have to become a bigger uh position in the portfolio yeah I would Kick the Can I don't yeah I'm I'm totally with you on that one so we go so so when things are I mean theoretically we should be getting a somewhat of a decent premium given how red the market is yeah so here's the question now the question is we can roll from 1250 to 1250 I'm down the road 28 days and we can actually pick up a little bit of money 620 or we can try to take some risk off the table and we can go from 1250 to 12 and then now that would actually cost us 220 bucks but we free free up we free up a little bit of capital I don't think it's necessary because it's such a small position to do that so I always want to take on credits I'd rather just go I'd rather just do a sideways move but we still we're still bringing a little bit of Premium St the door yeah I would say so as well and then uh we'll have to just try to get it to where it fills and we just have to wait now now we have to wait there's a real big uh bid ask there yeah and that's pretty standard whenever you're underwater and you wait a little bit too long I considered doing these yesterday but I just wasn't uh I wasn't up to like reaching out to you yesterday because I was still trying to to kind of like recover if you will so here I think I think the big question is g to be right now real quick guys on the Intel we got 2077 AMD is up a little bit iwm is down 3.75 Amazon's down 12% and S&P is down 2.1 so the question is going to be is this pain going to continue for the next coming weeks and these puts are going to have to keep getting pushed or do we get a bounce right do we get a moment where we can have a sigh of relief um and that'll navigate a lot of the position sizing as well so the one thing is we have to look at the bank R right so the individual cast 2.5 margin total is 2.7 open options collateral is 3.8 so it just comes down to also like how many more casur bits would we be able to sell or are we stuck because I sold too many already and now we're forced to Kick the Can down the road or take ownership like if you don't manage your bankroll accordingly then your options become limited right yeah so I have to look at all of these like we have uh this isn't a lot this is only $880,000 but like Neo is going to expire even though it's like right at the strike price I collected 2600 here so I'm just waiting for more Theta to run off the clock so maybe around noon or 1 p.m. if it hovers at these levels this is probably going to be a 3 Cent or two cent and I'll be able to close that and I'll be able to free up that $80,000 that we can now put into our project so that's something that I know is uh is coming is is is coming off the books and that increases the buying power a little bit not much but it's something and then I just have this uh this path put that we're trying to kick the can down the road on these put credit spreads aren't causing much stress with elf can we can we go to a can we go to a big can we go to hood that's a bigger position let's look at that one H man we were doing so well dude guys we were up like 50% on this position at one time early on so the good thing is we rolled it down from 21 to 2050 so we we bought 21 we rolled from 2150 or 21 yeah 2150 to 20 hood is that's and we opened up more puts at 20 just have so many open positions right now I'm trying to minimize these by half by the way and I think those don't expire yeah here we go to the 16 yeah so the good thing is here we have earnings we'll see if there's an earnings bounce if there is an earnings bounce then we can get out of the position if not um rolling this one again our adjusted cost bases would be like 18 on these shares roundabout or 1950 or something so I I would like to take ownership of these I wouldn't be upset about that but I think we can roll this as well after earnings yeah so that is uh something that you're a lot more familiar with this position's not I know it's big from the standpoint of a percentage of the the million that's allocated to this to this project but in the larger scheme of things so the portfolio would be very small right it's 200,000 bucks right right right right so it's just not you honestly I haven't even looked at this position until now you know what I mean and uh I mean it says a break even just on this alone is 1898 now mind you that might not be totally accurate because part of this was from the roll right here right this was from going from uh yeah 2150 to 20 so we took risk off the table there this would be taking ownership of 5,000 shares of hood right if it no it's too it's a 10,000 yeah 100 contracts so what is that 10,000 shares 10 yeah yeah see I am not uh worried about I'm way more confident around this one than Intel as well because I think near term we have momentum here as well but and I li but you see this is this is real good stuff to talk through because we have two companies that are at about the same price yep and do we see do we see Hood going from 20 to 25 faster than we see Intel going from 20 to 25 because neither one of those is going to zero I think that's off the table Yeah correct correct correct what's the floor on Intel I don't know G to my head do I think that it could hit 15 I [ __ ] doubt it but I wouldn't I wouldn't want to do the gun to the Head thing you know what I'm saying no but I'm just saying I doubt it because at that point it become stupid prices right my the S&P guys is at 529 so we just hit a pretty this is a red day this is a like this is a bad day it's red so yeah I agree like it's a really question of this is where your convictions tested right personally don't have a ton of conviction on Intel [ __ ] Hood you are a little bit of the opposite so it's really just navigating your conviction no I know let's let's clarify it's not that I don't have conviction in Hood I just don't know enough the only the only reservation I have on Hood guys is one it ran up quite a bit so I think this is actually healthy for Hood yes I agree but two the only reservation I have fundamentally on Hood oh nice we're able to roll that the the path I I just got a notification okay perfect uh is I don't know how that credit card business is going to pan out for them because that credit card business looks really good for the consumer I'm failing to really see the metrics how that credit card business is going to really be good for a hood aside from getting people really really excited about their beautiful goldplated card their real gold card whatever the hell it is and making a bunch of videos on on X about it whenever they receive their card they're smoking in the background all this people are going really they're getting really creative I think it's even like in a a Louis vitton casing or some [ __ ] I mean people have really gone the extra mile on this thing whenever they get their uh whenever they get their Hood credit cards but does that business make money for Robin Hood or is that something new that Robin Hood is going to be navigating and and I you know I mentioned it to you before it's kind of out of their scope potentially like I don't know like that's where you obviously know more about it than I do yeah I I I think it'll be fine I think it's gonna help their net deposits the bigger problem with Robin Hood is not the credit card to me it's if we have a bare market like Robin Hood's revenues go down right and then also it didn't you say at some you thought there was like a little bit of a correlation with uh with the way crypto performed in Robinhood yeah I mean if crypto goes down which it's going inverse right now which is hilarious but if crypto goes down like crypto and the markets go down Robin Hood goes down right because Robin Hood is so contingent about them wow Robin Hood's down 9% today they're taking a beating um but but in general uh after earnings I think we get to reassess right if earnings is really good and we get a pop then you know we get out of the position if not we roll it so here's another thing this is another way that you can navigate like Intel like go can we go back to Intel real real quickly because I can fre I can free up a lot of capital here in mitt I mean dude you're a big part of this thing right this isn't I'm not just going to take over this deal I mean if we're gonna do portfolio updates on my account I might do those on my [ __ ] Channel every day yeah I really want you to learn from this experience so there's something that I eyeballed doing because I was studying your conviction and your mannerisms and you're like you're I feel like you're kind of wishing that that money was in Hood you'd be sleeping a lot better at night am I Fair on that assessment yeah but that's only because I understand Hood more it's not that it's bad in Intel it's that I understand you know equals conviction correct correct yeah correct I mean knowledge is powerful guys y'all think money is powerful knowledge is powerful because something happens to wealthy people and they lose a lot they don't start at zero they start at [ __ ] experience you know what I mean and they're able to climb that ladder pretty pretty quickly in most cases so there's one thing that we could do is we could take some losses on those cash secur puts free up all that capital on Intel and we can move some of that money over to hood if Hood's a much higher conviction play and the only thing that we're going to be giving back on those cash carep puts on Intel is is is money that we got back from from the original wins anyway we've already had two or three successful cover call campaigns it really wouldn't be that big of a deal and it would keep the position a lot smaller and we would be able to free up that capital for a higher conviction play like Robin Hood right yeah that's not a horrible move we're basically giving back premium so it's a net wash and we're taking the collateral and we're putting it somewhere better we're we're reallocating it from lower conviction to higher conviction which is this is where you know what you want to be in guys that's the teaching segment for you whenever [ __ ] goes like this you look at the portfolio in this case it's like oh my God I mean that's a drastic move right that's a lot of beta for a portfolio this size six you know because I own a lot of shares right so I haven't even looked at sofa I haven't even looked at the big holding like paler and so on and so forth when there's a lot of shares own I mean dude a dollar on uh on 150,000 shares you know what I'm saying like on soofi well that's GNA be 150 Grand to the no bueno in a day like this like I haven't even looked at soofi today yeah yeah so uh do you want to do you want to look at doing that or or do you want to stay Pat on that because I mean if you like we like to it at 20 don't you like it maybe selling some cash care puts at 15 or are you like kind of enamored with trying to time to bot no I would love to sell cash point at 15 I think we need a couple days because good thing is those are expiring in two weeks so I think next Monday or Tuesday we kind of see because I think we have to see where the bottom is on this market like I don't think we need to make any moves until poundes went from 29 to 23.8 right now I mean like where does it stop you know so to me I think maybe we give it at least a couple days and we have the expiration so we don't have to worry about closing those anytime soon we fig agreed so one thing that I am going to do here is uh Celsius so I've been doing a lot of research on Celsius and I love Celsius at like the $35 range like because I mean I started like really looking at it and I'm like dude it wasn't even that attractively priced at like 46 47 it still had a p ratio of like 50 yeah so so I mean I'm just like [ __ ] I don't know why I thought that it was a like a great great deal it was more like a prison the moment from the standpoint like it was recently approaching 100 and now it's like I would be committing to buy these at 45 so it sounds like it's a good deal but like if you had a house that was worth a million or you you had it for sale at a million but it was only worth like 500,000 and then it comes back down to 500 you you reduce the price to 500,000 that that doesn't really make it a good deal on the house it's just going back to kind of what it's worth you know what I mean you had it overpriced from the very beginning so I could free up some Capital there too and just take a small loss on Celsius and and move move that money over to higher conviction or how do you how do you feel about Celsius yeah I do honest I have not done enough research on Celsius so I don't know about this one I do know that the the sales are going down from some like neelson study and that's what really triggered them to get hit there's some medicine medical journals are saying too much caffeine yada yada I don't know I think the growth is going to potentially slow down and then people are going to question why is it valued one-third of monsters valuation which is doing like 10x more Revenue right um but yeah I if if it's a low conviction for you then I agree taking a small loss on that and moving on is it's this lower conviction and I'm just trying to I'm trying to free up capital I do like it at those I mean again we don't have to do anything we're just talking we're just talking through it right yeah yeah yeah yeah all we're doing that's all you you do when you're you're uh dealing with the portfolios you're talking through it but now that inel I hadn't really looked at these casur puts my idea doesn't really work because that's that's a blood bath there if you look at like these 32 puts so let me ask you a question about this what is your philosophy on rolling this years out like if you rolled it to 2026 or something you would obviously get a credit for that the problem is your collateral be would be tied in for a couple years but is that better than taking the loss and uh navigating that type of yeah so I wouldn't do that I wouldn't I mean I've done it I've done it early on in my career um I mean we can look at it you know we can look at it because I'm just curious if you're if you're in a cash Cur put and it goes really South what is the philosophy on rolling it really far out yeah I I don't go that far out because uh you want to give the market a chance to rebound but I would consider going January 2025 that' be my go-to move and then keep in mind we got to make up 1148 bucks You' have to keep this you would just be collecting premium at this point yeah but not even not even a lot right but here's the thing like is there a philosophy on continuing to roll the contract every single week or month even if it's super in the money and just a little bit of Premium every month so that is it's really the same profile liit like having these cash secur puts on this is a really good teaching segment for you guys this separates wheelers from wheelers this this this is the stuff that there's levels to this game right and I feel like I'm not top tier but I want to approach top tier at some point um there is literally no difference from a risk profile from owning shares and having a cash secur put right because the collateral because well no because I'm just saying this cash p is not going to go away on its own yeah yeah so it's just you don't want the p&l you don't want it hit your balance sheet this is shady [ __ ] that companies do to make their books look good when it's time to report earnings right right because if I don't take ownership of these shares at 32 I don't have to show $111 11 a half dollars down on those shares right now I can just say something like on the conference call oh we're just navigating through Rough Waters on these C care P everything's going to be okay our trajectory six to you know what I'm saying like I sound like one of these [ __ ] CEOs but the reality is you got to treat it like you're underwater on these cash secur puts and where are you going to get your money back faster are you g to get your money back Faster by doing that or would it make more sense to take ownership of these shares and sell very aggressive covered cause against those shares to get your money back that's why I rather just take ownership that's why the golden rule is only sell cash secured puts on stocks that you're willing to own because if I take ownership of these shares at 20 this is again this is separating TJ the wheel deal from your average Joe that's trying to do this for a living is I'm not looking at 32 anymore did I've already surrendered that fantasy that's getting caught with my hand in the cookie jar and now I'm going to rely on my skill set to navigate the technicals and and keep studying the fundamentals of the company and I'll be selling cover calls on this thing at like 23 and 24 bucks to bring as much premium as I canel the door because now I have to play the game called lower my adjusted cost bases now this is something that on every book that you read it's going to say you never want to sell cover calls below your cost baces right right of your shares and that's cool for them but I don't follow those rules I'm write my own [ __ ] book you know what I'm saying because I'm not going to bag hold at those levels for that amount of time I would rather sell very aggressive cover calls and hope that I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar on that because then that means that the position is recovering as a whole but if it doesn't recover well I'm bringing more money through the door to lower my adjusted cost bases that's why I'm not a fan of rolling so far out of it because now I'm not bringing any money through the door with that same amount of capital that's tied up so I'd rather just tie it up on the shares because now I can sell covered calls against those shares if I kick this can down the road let's just play your game for a second right these are really really good exercises guys I hope y'all get value give us a thumbs up if you're getting any value here because I'm giving you guys some [ __ ] that you're probably facing right now in your portfolio and and this is go ahead let me summarize what TJ's saying right here as you're pulling this up TJ is basically saying hey instead of a cash C put that's underwater by $12 32 versus 20 and rolling it out to hopefully one day not get assigned on it instead you get assigned and then you sell covered calls at let's say $23 if the stock is 20 and you got assigned at 30 you're going to pick up more premium but you have to watch it like a hawk because obviously if it goes past 23 then you get sold at 23 and then you lose seven bucks a share because you got assigned at 30 so uh it is a way to capture premiums in a risky environment but it is something that is way more lucrative than just rolling the actual contract itself yeah because now I'm going to look at at what does it look like if we already own those shares right because I already I already showed on the options chain that you can go out to January of 2026 and you're still not making any money right you're still not making any money so let's just say we wanted to take we took ownership and we sold them a month out now there's a little bit of money here I'll sell them at like 23 bucks and we gota obviously get we got to go find people on the Dance Floor there's there's obviously that as well there's some people at 24 bucks and it's a 21 Delta that's good news that's good news and there there's a good news here that there's a little bit of open interest Etc the volatility is kind of high for Intel so the premiums are pretty decent so now I'm like okay there's 7500 shares that I'm gonna have to look take ownership of plus the the Thousand or the 10,000 shares that are already owned so help me out with the math ofit is at 175 contracts yeah yep okay so now I'm like well let me pick let me pick 24 is a strike and then now let's just see what does 175 contracts bring in that brings in about 6,500 bucks a month so to me that's way more lucrative navigating taking ownership of the shares and then just selling covered calls and actually hoping that these cover calls get underwater because I would gladly be okay navigating that because then that means that your overall the shares have improved right no I think I think that's better than uh than than than just rolling the contract I agree I think it makes more sense to do that well because now you have a you bought the rental bro bottom line is we overpaid for the [ __ ] rental house so what are you gonna do you're just going to sit there and mope and cry and be like I overpaid for the rental dude suck it up put a [ __ ] rental renter in there and let him and let him pay you for your mistake right and eventually the market will go back up hopefully but that's what people do in real estate all the time dude they're not sitting there constantly trying to like time the market time the market because they got 20 and 30-year Horizons that's why statistically people that invest in real estate make a lot more money than people in the stock market because going in they already had a proper mindset which was a lot more longterm than people trying to just gamble here on shortterm stuff and know you know let's answer this last question on Intel then we'll move on OT says what if we sell Intel do the same strategy on a different stock take the loss but try to recoup the losses on a like something like Nvidia what is the philosophy there yeah it has to be something that I feel like is more attractively priced and I is NVIDIA a better company yes is it at attractive prices right now let's look at it I don't know I haven't we haven't looked it in video it's not going under a 100 yet which is interesting it's getting a little bit of a floor at 100 right now it's at what 103 104 yeah I mean it's still where was it where when did it when did it uh was it three months ago when did it uh do the little deal the split was basically at this price I mean 140 was the top but the split was essentially around these levels or maybe at like 11 15ish that was the split so it's down from the split uh still up year to date look at this 133% I mean I'm just saying like you gotta put me on something that's a good deal yeah because I'm just saying D this story has been very very hunky dory for a little while I you know again it's got to be super high conviction and it's got to be a good deal and I I mean I'm not saying that Intel is like a great deal I think it's a it's a it's a good deal from the standpoint that I think it's going to find the floor very very soon but if this whole sector continues to get hit I mean this guy right here man is gonna it's gonna be the poster child for that too just like it was the poster child whenever it went up it's gonna no that's that's a good point I mean I know everyone loves Nvidia right now but you're right if the semis take a collapse Intel's already down 30% maybe it falls another 20% but Nvidia is going to hell if the semis like a real collapse right so it's not like Nvidia is that much better yet but then it begs the question do you just want to be in the semis in the first place so yeah so there's this Diaz Jeff can you pull that comment up that's a really good point guys there's companies that come to mind like uh Cisco there's companies that come to mind like uh IBM there's some there's there's some companies that just don't they just don't rebound because they just don't recover either fundamentally or they were just so damn overbought that they're just reverting back to the mean you know what I mean so you can't just look at Price action dude until to me I just think it's going to be a turnaround story and I think the biggest turn around with Intel is going to happen when they fire the [ __ ] CEO right because he's missed on earnings like three or four times since he's been CEO and he hasn't been the CEO that long so I think he only has probably two or three more quarters to sell this bag of goods to us and if he doesn't I think the new CEO new energy is going to bring a lot more excitement to Intel I think they're doing really really good things they're like cutting the dividend they're making very hard decisions but they're necessary like they're necessary they they should have probably let go of that [ __ ] dividend a year ago go and just dealt with the pain but I think that they just didn't want to pull the Band-Aid out for whatever reason so dude don't get me wrong Nvidia is very attractive compared to where we got it but let's also rewind the tape Adit I mean didn't we know that we were kind of like buying at the top when we bought the 300 shares yep 100% yep but then we also have seven cast secur that were navigating at 118 already and we have 10 C C PS that were navigating at 105 so there's already Intel type money over here in Nvidia yeah and I think those after earnings we can either roll them or get assigned I think the thing about earnings on Nvidia is it's gonna be good we know it's gonna be good because the cap so we might we may be able to take advantage of of a real small balance or or a real quick balce because the numbers are amazing correct like we did with Meadow which we'll talk about in a second but the only thing is is the market going to be willing to give them a multiple if they think we're heading into a recession even if the numbers are good right and so that's what we're going to have to see with Nvidia now let's go to meta because we did a good thing on meta yesterday you called the top on that at 5:25 we closed those puts which was good because this thing tanked right [ __ ] dude thank God we closed those that was I got lucky yesterday guys my technical analysis is not that good anymore yeah so right around here right around here I closed out those cash secur pits let's talk about it they were at 480 so uh well I didn't close him out I I reached out to you first and you gave me you you told me it was a good idea it was up 80% I was like yes let's do it we're done so it was right here uh we had sold the cas secur puts on July the 15 to 480 and uh they expire they would have expired a couple Fridays from now collected 8925 and then at 8:44 shortly after the market opened gave back $230 so we locked in a pretty nice win there and freed up quite a bit of collateral because you're talking about $48,000 five times over yeah that we would be navigating right now because now it's essentially at that strike price well so what we did here I think is very important I think now if the market is getting into correction territory it's going to be about bounces and whatever thing has a bounce when the RSI hits a certain level you you get out of it even if you take a small loss um and you na it versus you know waiting until [ __ ] hits the fan if you get the O like paler so let's let's talk to paler you have a $26 put there um I told y'all I was gonna tank the stock moment you absolutely helped us tank the stock with doing this um so this $26 put it expires right after earnings I don't know what earnings is going to look like but this macro is not friendly right now how do you feel about rolling this one on August 9th because I think eventually pound will be back above 26 and I think it'll we'll get paid a very good premium premium at 26 uh as we roll it I think week by week unless poun goes to like 18 or something maybe then yeah so that's a really really good question and that's where not every cash secur put is different so before we talk about cash secur put we have to talk about the actual position so this position I feel has been underweight in this portfolio for a long time and I've been wanting paler to go to like 20 bucks for a long time so that I could essentially almost double the position so I actually have a Target to double this position if paler gets to $20 a share and that would put me at an average of about 17 and some change right because you also have a bunch of shares getting called away at 125 right yeah well I'm gonna no navig I'm I'm Gonna Keep Those by by Rolling them I'm just been waiting for a scenario like this to give me that opportunity because I mean this thing is gaining value today right right because cover calls do well whenever the market tanks it's so your little heads to the downside so that is a very very interesting situation for me now because I finally have an opportunity to cap off this position right here but I don't want to be in a hurry so I'm going to keep those on but I'm only wanting to roll those out a couple of weeks at a time and maybe go from like 26 to 2550 26 to 25 and and start approaching my start approaching my acquisition price Target and my acquisition price Target is $24 which is kind of where it's at right now for that batch of shares and then if it gets to 20 then I'm gonna wherever the position is at that point I'm going to try to make sure I have the money to to essentially double the position at that point that way I have that 17 or 18 average and then from there I just think that I can manufacture the win and it's it's a company that I've been underwater on before when it was like at seven or eight bucks and it never stressed me out I was just always pissed off that I wasn't able to like acquire more shares so would you would you want to get assigned at that 26 level or would you roll that no I I 24 is my acquisition price Target on th on that batch I don't want to pay more than 24 a share on Palante tier I prefer to pay 20 I don't know do paler is proven to be such a resilient stock by the way real quick TJ I just got a text from Steve he just bought Amazon Google Nvidia and Intel so for anyone who wants to know what Steve was buying he bought those for okay go ahead well tell them we bought a lot more Intel than you so so that 26 you would just roll it then if I would roll it I want I want to get them at 24 so I'm not that stressed out about it but I but I ALS Al I'm going to utilize the BuyRight strategy if it gets to 20 I ain't [ __ ] around I'll just buy shares me too me too I'll just buy shares because I want to own those shares and that and that's the thing it's like if if you have a time Horizon that's like five years three to five years and not longer in your case you've talked about willing these shares to kids that aren't even in the live yet what does it matter if you get them at 26 25 24 23 at 20 or at 18 people are more enamored by their entry point the big players are more enamored with share accumulation yeah yeah if they believe that it's going up and to the right over a long longer Horizon and again this is where a company like Intel it starts it's very interesting right because again it's a very similar price to Intel yep yep and I do think that with just a couple of pumps a couple of good news whatever the case may be couple big contracts to this paler Community you guys have proven to be like a Band of Brothers if you will you know what I mean and and this thing I mean if you just want to play price action which is what we're doing when we're selling cash secur puts and cover calls you're you're playing price fors with the market for me it happens to be on investments because I'm not a traditional wheeler where I'm not always trying to get back into Cash right so I just I just want to accumulate more shares that I'm not that stressed out about oh I don't want to sacrifice my my average cost of 1461 you know what I mean right I'm I'm more concerned about how can I get that to 50,000 shares because then I don't have to worry about 20% of the portfolio because it would be in one of the highest conviction names that I have which is which is paler so can we look at Tesla because your covered calls should be doing better on those right I would never imagine so and I'm looking at this [ __ ] for the first time guys like I didn't I I just got out of the shower before I hopped on here so here's Tesla so oh wow Tesla's holding up pretty strong so Tesla's at 211 so that Parts all good and then we have uh some foot credit spreads that I sold at 175 and 170 that I'll turn into regular cash secured puts if they get challenged I don't think they will that's why I picked such low strike strikes and you had a decent you got a 80 how much did you get per those five five 500 of collateral you got how much average no I got more it's 15 contracts yeah but but the spread is five bucks so you got you got 10% you got 55 cents for putting up 500 in collaterals yeah so 825 is what we got yeah 825 okay perfect yeah so that's 10% that's not bad yeah that's not bad and I think that Tesla at 175 signed me up yeah yeah yeah sign me up like I W even like you know you close the long put you make money there and then you obviously need the collateral so 17,500 times 15 contracts it's shell Lo of collateral and I essentially position myself to almost double that position because again this is another company that I have felt underweight on a long time so this this is where your conviction gets tested guys is whenever stocks go to levels that match the [ __ ] that you've been typing on your ex account how many of y'all have said if pter goes to 20 I'm loading the [ __ ] boat how yourself on your [ __ ] right now how many of you guys have said on a Midstream because I can go roll the tape I got some artificial intelligence that I just bought I do I do I have AR tell I paid 105 bucks for it it takes my one and a half hour long video and it gives me like 50 Clips real quickly and the chat's on there too and I can go quickly tell it what to do and call all of you guys out that said oh I'm gonna buy paler at these levels I'm gonna buy Tesla at these levels well where is your conviction really at or is it all [ __ ] no it's a good point I mean and it's just I don't even blame anyone for uh for saying it and not doing it because I do it as well it's like it's human nature right everyone want commit to something you don't have to do right now 100% 100% agreed um Christian thank thank you for the $2 Super Chat TJ helps us understanding vix implication or he's asking you TJ help us understand vix implication so the vix is up volatility index that is why some of the market is or all the market is crashing another comment real quick and then I'll let you talk on that TJ someone said Amit I was traveling for two days what happened then if you're just joining unemployment is up to 4.3% that is the reason for why the economy is slowing down that's why the stock market is kind of pricing in a pseudo recession if you're just joining it's it's that unemployment rate that's bad so TJ what do you think about vix going up and how you navigate that from a options perspective Vick's going up means that equities are going down typically but as an option seller who manages his bank role pretty efficiently like that's the thing that like people will think that I'm good at like a lot of things what I'm really good at is temperament control emotional control and bankroll management because when I played poker only had a certain amount of money to work with so I couldn't like let my emotions get the best of me and have a couple bad hands and sleeping on the streets in Vegas you know what I'm saying like I have to manage my bank and I got to manage my emotions so that really prepared me for this game right here so that means that the premiums are all going to be elevated this is almost like a having a binary event at your disposal just about on every stock that you look at like the premiums on any company you want to sell Cy puts on they're just going to be a lot higher than they were say three or four weeks ago right but they gota again you can't just play price action dude because the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent right we've all heard these things before uh so you got to pick a stock that you're genuinely excited about and if it gets to levels that you based on your homework and maybe look at the chart and stuff because the chart will show you when to get in right a little bit but the fundamentals are going to tell you whether or not you even want to buy the company to begin with then you have to start placing your bets very very aggressively because I always ask myself this question admit if not now when that's a good point and you it's hard to time the bottom can we look at the covered call on Tesla because I think that should be up nicely I know you rolled it but um 225 for January right yeah so I'm approaching Break Even but I know I didn't collect all of that on the roll so you need Theta Decay to do its thing there's no there's some Theta Decay so it's going to take time again that's why I'm not a huge fan of doing all of these things now there's another thing that I could do now there's you know we always talk about rolling out and up right well you can always roll down and in as well like if I want to create more of a hedge for the downside because I think Tesla can maybe go to like 200 or or 170 or something like that then I can look at trying to roll this out out like in try to roll it in so that I can eventually control these shares a little bit sooner so we're sitting over here in January maybe I can look to free up the shares a little bit earlier like over here in November and I got to make up 29 bucks so keep that in mind so so I can maybe if I Want to Break Even on it and I'm willing to get very very aggressive with the strike price I can essentially shave a couple of months off this contract and lower the strike from 225 to 210 and I did a little bit better than break even and I positioned myself to take control of these shares a little bit sooner so you would be red so that would be November but the then the question becomes do you think Tesla's under 210 by November that yeah well that's you know th those are the things though but also if I am right it helps me to be able to start eventually selling covered calls again because all of this right here this is dead money for a while right and dead money is whenever you have money that's parked there and you're not able to make any more money with it that's why I'm not a fan of kicking these cash and Care puts on Intel way down the road because I could at least make money out over here selling risky covered calls versus just parking freaking $200,000 or whatever it is $250,000 out for two years just because I don't want to show it on on the p& know right so I'm like you know so that so that's something that I won't consider doing on Tesla until I'm probably at about 30 to 40% profit on this cover call because right now it's not causing me any stress it used to cause me stress and Tesla's also one of those stocks I me you gotta know how your stock moves right like Tesla's one of those stocks that you know when it moves it moves really really big in both directions it's kind of like crypto so the other thing that I'm looking at is I gotta navigate these put credit spreads for one I got to make sure that I'm okay there because that's for 920 and that's a lot of capital that I have potentially had to allocate there and also have to look at okay these leaps have done really really well uh they're not doing as well now but at some point these were up at like $125,000 and I remember thinking man I wish I had more leaps so now I'm like well let me just keep an eye on this thing because if Tesla does go to like 170 or something like that then maybe I want to buy 10 more of these bad boys that way whenever it does bounce again you know I have a a much larger win that I could potentially lock in so you know just got to look at all the aspects of the portfolio man and and at the end of the day there's an opportunity to go from a trade to an investment then you know you should probably do that let's answer this question bof thanks for the $5 Super Chat I like Hood don't mind it followed y'all at 81620 puts 130 average contract thoughts on selling more for 275 a premium personally think good earnings for Hood yeah so if you are long Robin Hood which I am starting to become more long Robin than just a trade uh over the next 10 years and like actually long not just like [ __ ] long but like legit long because I think they can get to$ 500 billion Au 35 million accounts then I like the $20 price range um I I also like those $20 puts because I think earnings is good now the Nuance here and I think TJ would agree if they crush it on earnings but the vix is at vix is up like what 20% if it if if the vix has another crazy day then it doesn't matter right it's same thing with pter same thing with Nvidia like they can Crush earnings but the macro is not going to let them move forward now if the macro um subsidizes right like it relaxes over the next couple of months or weeks and they have a good earnings I think that earnings momentum will get baked into the stock because once the macro chills the market is goingon to be like H holy [ __ ] Robin is going 50% year-over a year blah blah blah blah all the numbers start making sense so if you're selling those puts for premium I think your average would be closer to 17 I like that adjusted cost basis but Robinhood could fall back to 15 if [ __ ] really hits the fan you just got to be prepared for that agreed agreed agreed agreed do we want to look at Sofi Sofi SOI somebody told me it was in the sixes is that true yeah I'd hit the sixes holy moly look at this guy so so SOI so I sold 20,000 shares all right here we go I sold somewhere over here so I sold 20,000 shares at 783 oh that's a good sell it's a great sell there you go and then uh I earnings came out and the market didn't receive those earnings well right like it always does right so I started selling back stop trades I started selling puts in the distance and I sold uh 200 contracts at eight bucks for January 2025 another 20 contracts at eight for 2025 200 more contracts at seven bucks another 200 at eight this is all for 2025 January 80 contracts 100 contracts and I sold one covered call as a feeler at n bucks should have sold 1,500 of them so that is what's going on with Sofi um so essentially you you sold some shares took some profits wrote some puts uh you thought earnings were good I thought earnings were really good as well Market didn't receive it and then sold a bunch of covered calls on those shares you bought at nine bucks and you still got paid 15 bucks a contract for $ n just no I only sold one contract oh one just to check I wish I would have sold a lot more because I'd be sitting really really good on those on those covered calls right now why did you only sell one you thought SOI could could go up to nine bucks you had a feeling yeah I was essentially my bet was that Sofi was going to go up and then I would sell the rest of them and collect more than 15 bucks so evidently I was wrong so I've got a th covered calls so let's look at the whole position right so there's 150,000 shares 774 obviously underwater you know because $1 is 150 Grand so that's the reality of it so it makes sense because Sofi is at 674 right yep so there's that but then I've got the one that one doesn't count so I've got a th000 covered calls at eight bucks expiring on 830 so we can look at that one real quickly and see that up 80% on those wow you're up 50 Grand on those holy [ __ ] yeah so and you don't think we get to eight bucks by 830 so you're going to collect the remaining 12 Grand well I'm gonna at least try to get six yeah I'm G try to get six at that point it just doesn't make any sense uh to to hold it and then I've got all these puts in the distance a th000 puts at eight th puts at seven so there's a lot of capital there $1.5 million yeah yeah and I feel like it's easy money just to be that's where I'm at and then I also have a th leaps 600 at 10 200 at s and 200 at five right so I don't have covered calls being sold against 50,000 of these shares and I don't have any cover calls sold against these leaps right now so there's a lot of money that I could be bringing through the door but I'm playing Sofi for bounce and so if I has to be above $8 for me to sell those covered cost because I just don't want to get in a position to where I have to navigate so many contracts because it's proven very difficult for me to roll that many contracts because on Robin Hood if you're going to collect more than 25 cents a share it only allows you to either sell put or cause or roll 200 contracts at a time yeah the only thing that you can do for larger than those quantities when it's above 25 cents a share or $25 a contract is buy to close right like you can't even sod to open it's just Robin Hood has that limitation already talked to management bro and they're not going to change it well the 200 contract yeah why haven't why why do you they have that you know I don't know bro but it's it's an absolute [ __ ] thing talk to your boy Vlad I don't know I don't know because on Weeble I've done a thousand at a time they don't give a [ __ ] don't make it it's very weird don't make it happen so I don't know I think that Robin when they started they were catering to the $2 to $10,000 account and then now there's people that have you know some money and they want to use it but there's there's a lot of limitations on the platform right right so uh anyway so that's what's going on in a nutshell can we talk about something that I'm super excited about yes what do you want to talk about Amazon yes so I've got some put credit spreads on Amazon that are underwater so how do you feel about buying to closed alongside and turning these into regular Cur puts and navigating those and then eventually positioning ourselves to take ownership of these shares in the 160ish range okay so let's uh let's break this down this is a good one so for this is a I talked about this a little bit a couple days ago but let's like actually break it down so what TJ did I'm gonna explain it and then TJ you correct me where I'm wrong is a put credit spread put credit spread is when you buy a put and you sell a put at the same time different strikes the sell side of the put is higher than the buy side of the put in terms of strikes same expiration now why do you do this if you sell a cash secured put let's just go you and me we're selling it at 165 on Amazon you need $16,500 6 165 times 100 to collateralize the put in order to appreciate the premium from or receive the premium from the cash trip put when you do a put credit spread you're buying a put in this example at 160 so if Amazon goes from I think you did it when it was like 185 is 190 if Amazon goes down to 160 or even if Amazon goes to 170 or 173 that put increases in value when you buy a put and a stock goes down the put increases in value that's you're buying protection you're buying insurance at the end the long put the long put the long put when you sell a put the short side of it you are trying to get the stock to stay above that strike it can go down it just can't go down above below your strike because then you have to pay for those shares if you get assigned those shares so when you do a spread between them my understanding is you buy the put you sell the put you create a spread in this case the width was $5 165 minus 160 so you have to put up $500 in collateral and you get paid a premium for that 500 in this case I think you got 50 cents 70 cents whatever it was the premiums on the put credit spread tend to be way better than the premium on a cash secured put andc the reason for that is because you're buying one you're buying one leg and selling one side one side against each other the catch is the catch is that if the stock goes below the strike price you don't just get to buy the shares as a normal cash C put so you're technically kind of safe because at the end of the day you can buy the shares and hold it forever you just lose your collateral that 500 you put up it's gone and so you keep the premium so if you got 100 in premium you lose 400 technically right but that's the downside of it so what TJ wants to do right now and what we're going to do is we're because Amazon fell 11% the buy side of the put the long put should have appreciated we can close that capture the profit there and then just turn the sell side of the put into a regular cash C put so you can see that the long put is printing right it's up 300% yeah there you go there you go so essentially if I want to lock in that win it's going to ask me for the collateral necessary to turn the other short putut into a Cass Cur put because you can't do anything naked on Robinhood except train for trade from the comfort to your home you follow which means which means you will need to have 82 yes which means you will need to have $882,500 ready to go if you're gonna collateralize the CSP uh because 16,500 times five contracts right so essentially if you want to close out this long call you're buying a long call so you have to reverse the process and you essentially need to sell to close right correct correct so you go and it's five contracts and say like you know I'll give you guys I don't know 415 and then you hit review and now it's going to ask me for collateral you see that collateral right there yes so it's asking you for the 80 grand to capture the credit right well because because because now I have to turn the short put into a casur put because before we do that let's look at this right here yeah I was gonna say do we like Amazon at 165 that's the question yeah well there's that because this is a defined risk trade meaning the maximum that I could lose here is the $2500 in collateral correct correct that's why people like it and then a guy paid 240 bucks for doing it so it's essentially about 9% return on your capital and again remember guys the 2500 came from $500 times five contracts of collateral the $500 came from 165 minus 160 that's five bucks five times 100 shares uh a contract is 500 so you put $500 you got paid times five 2500 you got 900 something or 240 bucks so you got 9% on your money in a couple weeks which is not bad right but I mean bottom line is if you lose one it WI wipes out six or seven wins right correct correct so you got to be careful that's why I do these way out of the money when I do when in other words when a put credit spread gets challenged if I'm not excited about that because this is way out of the money in right you have no business messing with that stock because you don't like it at any price at that point yeah you picked a strike that's way too close to the money and if one of those like I'm begging the market I'm playing chicken with the market I'm like dude if you give me at these prices like I can't give you my money fast enough right and that's how I felt about Amazon because you got to go back to the origins of everything right so I had a position in Amazon and when I sold this position it was immediate regret guys it was immediate remorse but Pride kept me from getting back so I bought these shares 1,200 of them at 129 then I started selling covered calls they got underwater had a freaking roll sold more puts over here at 120 blah blah blah sold more bought more shares at 152 and then I'm selling covered claws but then over here I don't know what happened but I started becoming an idiot and I uh and people like oh you've been that a long time okay cool but I sold 300 of these shares at 172 and then another 1,200 at 172 so now I have an opportunity to buy for whatever reasons the stock market god Amazon Edition is shining down on me today and he's like hey you're remember that time you acted like an idiot we're GNA give you a hall pass you can actually buy these shares right now for less than you actually sold them right and then I made some money along the way also Al trying to sell more puts over here you'll see I sold puts collected 7650 this is before we were doing this deal and then I bought to close those puts gave back 2500 so I locked in about four or five grand there and then uh you know I gave what I guess I I don't know what happened here yeah so so I collected 76 4200 and I gave back 25 and so it looks like I made about seven or eight grand and then this is the put credit spread that we're in right now where where it collected basically you're fine owning it at 165 if you get it and that's why you're doing it at the end yeah but I'm just you know like I feel like uh it's not a good as good a deal as I had before but also Amazon just had earnings I believe yesterday uh I'm a little out of sync as far as when earnings are because it seems like a lot of happened this last week or so but I think Amazon might have been yesterday and I thought they were pretty good dude they were some of the best earnings I've seen from Big Tech it was amazing yeah so I'm just like and it's only five contracts I had 1500 shares before so again it becomes like if not now when and then I look at the stalks in this portfolio I'm going to put it on Equity I mean bro there's a million tied up in Sofi how the hell is there not at least 100,000 tied up in Amazon you know what I'm saying I mean just calling it a spade a spade so I I just feel like the portfolio could use a little Amazon and maybe not have path because it's low conviction we could cut this dog with fleas loose right now and probably lose no more than 2,000 bucks not a big deal I can I can say I tried and I failed it wouldn't be the first time and I could replace path with an Amazon I I'm not saying I have to do that but I'm just saying if we chose to it's not that big of a deal right because we've collected quite a bit of Premium on path or not so I think let's uh let's let's close out the put credit spread on Amazon first and let's get that out of the way because I I agree with you Amazon at 165 to me as a no-brainer could it go down to 140 of course if we have buy more shares yeah yeah and and people say it like you know I don't want people to think like it's all nonchalant oh it's because you have all this capital and stuff and I'm like no it's because I manage my bank roll you have to do the same we are all playing the same game dude it's just there's it's is and nose it's just the the the number of contracts is going to be different but you still have to manage everything accordingly and dude I love Amazon at 165 but you got to also keep in mind the short put is getting this ass kit look at this short putut right now yeah well it's because it's below 165 yeah look at that 300% that you're down you know what I'm saying that you're up over there you're down over here that's how it works right so uh let me go over here to the long to the long putut side so it' be this guy right here how August 16th I think of Jackson I think it's like a couple weeks from now he speaks bought the close so be five of those guys figure just released a new video me and TJ are about to be done and then we'll watch the video live on stream so we're closing these and so now it's going to ask you for the collateral it should it should have filled so there we go so now have these puts and it stands to reason that I'm going to be underwater those puts right yeah because we're at 163 yeah yeah yeah right so that's why that's why it's going to show as a as a no bueno there for a little while so dude I feel uh I feel good about it you know I feel really really good about it because now I've got something that I'm excited about you know like I have this one here that it's like I can't wait for it to get to like 80% so I can close the [ __ ] out right have plenty of shares in Neo that was a cash grab that obviously uh went wrong from that standpoint because Neo is actually getting challenged at these levels which I just didn't think it was gonna happen so I can't wait to free up that money and then uh you know now we got these path puts that we shot out in the distance to 8:30 so I have to deal with that for for a little while but then we also have these covered calls that were expiring and those should be doing pretty good I'm trying to find them right here so these cover calls are doing pretty good so it can essentially give back $200 close out the cover calls and sell out of the position completely and then only navigate the the casur P that we just kicked out to August right you know that's that's a possibility you know we don't have to do it right now but I'm just saying that's something that's on the table if we wanna if we want to clean up the portfolio because I guess if there's a teaching segment for you guys is I I use these types of situations to clean up a portfolio like I'm like okay I was fishing on Celsius I was I'm fishing Stow on Nvidia crowd strike path micro strategies and there's really no conviction there because all these prices are a lot more attractive today than they were when I first got into them and I'm not excited about it then it tells me where my conviction is on those play so like here with Celsius I'm in a position to take a small loss with Celsius that wouldn't hurt me that much because I've made some money with Celsius along the way and so that's that's a little soul searching that I have to do there because again it's like it could be one of those companies that never sees 90 bucks again you know what I mean hell it might not ever see 50 again because it's still not exactly a deep discount at these levels and now I just have to look at these positions here and be like okay like Open Door is something that it's a very big position if you will but I also have a pretty decent entry point at 189 on 35,000 shares so may maybe it's one of those that for whatever reasons I just kind of got lucky on the bottom there you know what I mean so I don't want I'm not going to let go of a trade that I'm not underwater on so what do you see hereit I mean let's let me let me minimize it here I played this game yesterday on my stream let's play a game these are these are the inv Investments one two 3 four five these are the Investments and if I wanted to graduate five of these right here starting from right here let me go a little bit bigger here we go starting from right here if I wanted to graduate these five five of these to Investments and we can obviously use Amazon as well meta stuff that we've dealt with here in past and I wanted all of the positions in the portfolio to be at least $250,000 of this list also adding meta and Amazon to the mix which you be targeting yeah as well H as well we'll we'll wrap up on this I think it's Amazon meta crri Nvidia and Hood I mean those are the five that I would easily do at those levels to make them like big positions in the portfolio just because long term I think all those five are going to be good but the other ones I don't think are bad like American Airlines micro strategy just Bitcoin exposure not horrible but not the ones I would love to you know make top five positions yeah did really like uh I don't I don't like it maybe to the tune of $250,000 but I really like like American Airlines at these levels right here right it's it's just very easy to sell cash puts and cover calls on so anyway man I hope you guys got some value you know I could have easily played sick today the portfolio is not looking good and no dude everyone's everyone's portfolio is [ __ ] it's not like anyone who wants to make fun of anyone in the chat it's like dude everyone's taking a beating so it's hopefully uh helping people just learn how to navigate some of this stuff and look at how other people are you know doing what they need to do for sure I got a lot of trading that I got to do my man with the fund but uh it's always a pleasure and I hope that you're getting value out of this thing absolutely let me put TJ's Twitter in the chat please make sure to follow him there TJ you're growing on Twitter dude people are loving your jokes that you make about your wife speak Twitter can we have a can we have a one minute candid conversation about social media and YouTube so how many people are on the chat forget about them for a second I I've been wanting to ask you this because it's really starting to bug me bro I'm starting to get like daily like one or two trolls that like starts getting under my skin a little bit how did navigated when you started growing your presence dude one guy asked me for my tax returns yesterday and I actually engaged him and I'm like wait who the [ __ ] is this guy first of all go talk to my wife about it and she's like cut that conversation off like like it's it's a [ __ ] troll trolls just mean you're growing as you grow you have a lot more people that are trying to poke at you you either just block them you can't be afraid to use the block button or you ignore them at the end of the day they're engaging with you so it's helping the algorithm quite frankly um yeah look it's stuff it gets under my skin sometimes too but like you got to move forward I mean you're gonna you're gonna be a big account on Twitter over the next five ten years right so it is what it is you got to move on it sucks but like those are people that are really scared of their lives or they're insecure if they want to see your tax returns right yeah cuz my cu cu my wife was like hey we need get on Twitter because I was like I get a lot of valuable there's there's a lot of really good Insight on Twitter on my feed anyway and uh she was like just don't be mean to people don't you know like she just gave me this lecture because I tend to like be an [ __ ] when I get angry right and I was just like so I was like trying to like keep my cool with this dude but he kept like going at me going at me going at me and I was just like and he was like you're being disingenuous and you're you're misinforming people because only about 25 to 30% of my net worth has come from Wheeling and I'm like I don't think I've ever said that 100 % of my net worth came from yeah TJ it's not even worth dude it's not even like there's they're dumb like you got to just personally I just I just I just needed that that because because you're obviously grown to levels that I can't even imagine so I feel like you deal with that [ __ ] I've I've heard of people going at like meet Kevin and stuff and I'm like did this dude think about the whole world saying it bothers me and I can't I don't even know why bro like because it's so inconsequential to my [ __ ] life but for whatever reasons it did bug me like I'm just fessing up straight up it bugged me a little bit it should bug you I mean like it means you care about your audience you care about being authentic if someone calls you a scammer you want to like say that's not true but Elon and Zuck I mean the whole world hates them right they have to deal with every Med New York Times who has a lot more distribution than you know this troll is saying elon's the horrible P so it's like if they can deal with it and smile in the morning and not care you know everyone else to everyone else has to be able to as well word of the day brother appreciate you all right word of the day is fractious word of the day is fractious this is an interesting one fraction or what unwilling to comply that was with on Twitter yesterday yeah you're a trou being fractious that's all right TJ thank you we'll see you next week and keep this going man appreciate appreciate you guys let's talk on a personal though about Intel yeah yeah call you after this all righty all right talk later all right guys Market still crashing we'll talk more about it in a second uh we got this new video by figure I want to take a look at this so we have the figure O2 the second version of their robot here we go [Music] [Music] it's coming out on uh August 6 I don't know guys they they're kind of teasing it they're not showing the exact full thing but they're showing the new agility of it I don't know man are they trying to are they trying to beat Optimus are they trying to get better than Optimus here let's watch it one more time put the volume down the big thing about it is how agile is it how um how ambidextrous is it can it move obviously by itself without being attached to too many things it does feel like humanoid Robotics are getting bigger and bigger dude getting bigger and bigger and bigger and if they show some videos in the next coming months where this thing's actually working and doing stuff then it would be pretty fun the software it's powered by open AI we saw it talking a couple months ago via open ai's llm looks like a vacuum cleaner they're not a public company they're a private they're a startup right now all right there you go there's figure all right so um that was pretty cool let's look at the market yeah guys this is a bad day this is one of the worst days we've had in a long long long time SNP is at 529 down 2.46% Robin Hood down 10% on the day 1806 10.8% basically 11% paler 7% down Snapchat's down 24% Intel is down 26% look I don't love Intel which is why I was a bit hesitant on uh buying a ton of Intel in the public portfolio like I I we bought 2500 shares we live with that like you can never time a bottom there so it's like whatever we bought those 2500 shares buying another 10 15,000 I don't know because I just like I would rather just like sell cover calls on those 2500 and slowly make our way back up um but until right here at 21 I've got to do a lot more research to see if there's any magic there I know a lot of people just think they're behind in the semi uh landscape which they are and obviously the spending that dividend is not good they are cutting 30 25,000 employees maybe that helps but this one looks like it's going to take a while to recover so not the most bullish on Intel at these prices I would rather buy Amazon at these prices I 64 but here's the problem if [ __ ] hits the fan like really hits the fan coinbase now down 5% Amazon at 165 is not going to be looking fun like Amazon at 140 is gonna happen meta at 484 you know meta at 410 or 350 is gonna happen the question is do we think it really gets that bad that's the question madna down another 5% Crow strike 213 down 5% where's the NASDAQ it must be down three% NASDAQ yeah down 2.95% do things really get that bad I think that's the question figer debut is on August 6 so we have four days until figer puts out I think more information on that O2 um so that's gonna be exciting as well figer might end up being my best investment out of everything I have because the stock market obviously is not complying uh paler right here 2411 I do like poundo 24 going into earnings before when I mean I like it I mean I like that at $24 not at $27 into earnings but yeah pounder is getting SCH smacked right now has the S&P 500 corrected no from from Peak to trough it needs to go to 509 to correct right now we're at 528 so we still have more pain on this one Mike says Q's won't come back for another year I don't know I don't know that me Q's go back to so you be saying qes won't come back to 500 for a year basically I mean look dude if that's the case then then we're in a full-blown recession like there's no mistake about it like this is 2021 NASDAQ 16,000 everything collapses that's what it is if that's what's happening uh and the thing is the markets are up so much I still bet a ton of people like my portfolio is still up at the end of I'm sure a lot of people are still up like is it taking a beating today of course but like it's still up I imagine a lot of people are still up because the S&B still 528 it was at 4,800 when the year started the question is how bad does this [ __ ] really get really really get for it to take a nasty nasty hit Market is forward looking it will come back once the path is clear well see that's the other thing I'm not I'm still not ready to give up a bull market narrative yet because the jobs data was bad but now the FED knows what it has to do it it it knows what it has to do the question is is it doing it from a pure sign of weakness and I don't know and also remember the FED doesn't need to cut 25 basis points do you guys remember 2019 where the Fed cut a bunch of rates um and they cut it pretty quickly and that and the market actually actually let me read this stat to you Nike yeah Nike at 72 let me read the stat to you guys because I was uh I was look I was reading this last night um okay so here here let me let me read this to you okay so when the FED cut rates and what happened to the market 1998 the FED cut rates three times between September and November uh to deal with the Russian financial crisis the S&P rallied 28% from the September lows now granted the S&P already fell in 1987 right so just keep that in context 2001 the FED cut rates 11 rate Cuts in 2001 uh after the dotom crash from 6.5 to 1.75 um the S&P fell by 13% so although it fell although the FED cut rates it fell because the Doom crash was really bad maybe this is a pseudo dotcom crash we'll see 2007 to 2008 the FED uh cut rates from 5 a half to Zero by December 2008 the S&P collapsed and then it rallied or sorry no the S&P uh S&P fell 50% from 2007 to 2009 so a year after but then it rallied 27% in 2009 so we had to have a decline before the the uh increase now in 2020 the FED cut rates to 0% that was the pandemic but the S&P went up 16.3% so the question's going to be uh oh and then 2019 the FED cut rates three times from July to October and the S&P then rallied 9% 2019 if I had to guess feels more similar to now because uh we like I'm saying that because um 2018 we had a little bit of a correction you could call it more than a correction uh we have not had more than a correction yet I mean we're still barely touching on correction we need to really see 10% on the index uh and then the FED immediately raised rates and then we took off that might happen again if the FED Cuts rates by 50 to 75 basis points in September not just 25 basis points if they choose to only do 25 basis points this feels more like 2001 where they're slowly coming down and the market will melt down slowly as the FED is doing that I don't think as much as JP says he doesn't care about the market he wants to ruin the stock market why because people own Assets in the market if you screw over the market people feel less wealthy people literally have less wealth they stop spending that creates even a worse recession because people don't have the money to spend if their asset prices deflate so I I I still think japal is gonna have a lot of pressure to save this market and the way he's going to do it is by cutting rates which is what was his plan initially he really want honestly jpow wanted to see this Market meltdown the way we're seeing it right now like eight months ago but he didn't get it right he didn't get it because like AI earnings like you can say whatever you wanted Market kept going higher I don't think it was hype uh because obviously companies were putting up numbers but the market kept going up higher even though [ __ ] was hitting the fan so now shit's hitting the fan this is what wanted to see months ago and because it's hitting the fan now I think now he gets excited to use his magic tool which is rate Cuts Nvidia right here at 105 and help save the market but I think you're going to need more than 25 bips in September to really get [ __ ] to have a dent in mortgage rates Automotive loans Etc we just have to see if jpow does it what do you think of Walgreens good dividends uh don't like Walgreens not good management stocks down at at this point 15year lows dividend is not worth it you could get 8% somewhere else versus Walgreens I mean you can get a little bit lower than 8% at TFC and Regional Banks which are taking a hit as well but I'd rather be in a much more secure company than Walgreens K is down 5% today makes sense The Regionals are taking a hit why are the Regionals taking a hit uh uh obviously a rate cut is good for the Regionals and that helps them go up however um if we get a rate cut or sorry if the consumer stops spending and stops depositing and Banks stop having Capital activity at the end of the day it's a bank right that's why Sofi is down if the consumers weakened and banks are doing like banks are going to do bad even if they have loan losses come off their books so Ray Cuts will help them but still gonna get a little tough if the consumer obviously gets hurt uh Crossroads had a good tweet today let me pull that up the vix is up 56% today correct whoever was trading the vix you made a lot of money if you traded the vix vix is up um let me pull up crossroads' tweet he highlighted three quotes from earnings that I thought were important about the consumer so PayPal said we are also seeing ongoing normalization of loss rates with our off-balance sheet us consumer Revol revolving portfolio I.E loss rates are taking up which means consumer weak Visa in the US while growth in the high spend consumer segment remains stable compared to Prior quarters we saw a slight moderation in the low spend consumer segment consumer slowing down Amazon consumers are being careful with their spend we're seeing signs of that continuing into Q3 so consumers are spending or consumers are not spending as much as before and all three of those companies kind of signaling that Derrick says word of the day should be soft you guys are soft humans I'm imagining dererk is buying the dip because Derrick's been preparing for this moment um Derek I just got the email from our buddy our buddy I think you probably got the email right now he said please view the new figure O2 model model dude that was a dope video let's [ __ ] see what figer puts out on August 6th but that was a dope figur is Fig's gonna have to save my whole portfolio dude figer is gonna be the only thing that that goes up now the Market's gonna whoever knows what the Market's going to at this point um but yeah look well okay here's the question on this whole point about being soft who's buying the dip today who's buying the dip Douglas says it ain't the market bro JP pal needs to be afraid of Aunt Pelosi look at what she did to buy it in a sitting pus imagine what she could do to a Fed chair yo Pelosi bought the dip on Nvidia as well three days ago so it's not like it's not like Pelosi's not bleeding either it's not like Pelosi is not bleeding either okay we got a bunch of people buying the dip so a bunch of people not being soft uh emergency cut I don't want an emergency cut because an emergency cut to me means that we're actually in a recession I want the fed and maybe we are but I want the FED to be able to cut appropriately in September and navigate this versus like coming out and saying oh my God everything's ending we have to cut rates because then the Market's not going to care in my opinion the Market's going to think the FED lost and If the Fed lost then what does it matter if they cut even more you know unless they cut like three or four basis like there not basis points like three or four percent like imagine the FED funds rate goes from five and a half to like two there's no way that's happening but if that did happen markets would rally immediately it's just a question of would we have inflation if that happens is inflation moderated enough to keep that happen they're going to take the Tesla thunder on the sixth before Tesla on the eighth yeah literally figer is gonna have the Tesla Thunder I mean look that video on by figer it might prove that they're ahead of Optimus now granted Tesla maybe is working and they're not trying to show Optimus because they want to keep it under wraps S&P at 529 but it looks like figer is coming for the throne right now and we'll see what they do I'd be so scared if they did that yeah I would be scared too man if they come out and say emergency rate cut it I was watching a video yesterday from 2020 where Jerome pal cut rates in March and uh he was nervous in that video you know he was like look like it's time we we cut rates things are getting bad the pandemic might be horrible we are at post we are at pre-pandemic uh or no we are at P pandemic level ISM Manufacturing levels and there's no pandemic so I mean you could make an argument that like [ __ ] is hitting the fan I just don't know if unemployment at 4.3 is it's enough of a reason for the market to to like take a nasty tumble especially on a Friday which is what we're seeing I don't know if it's like legit a real recession therefore uh you know Amazon needs to go back to 80 we got to remember as well 2022 if we just look at Amazon's chart we kind of had the recession in the stock market maybe not in Main Street but in the stock market Amazon went from 2021 to 2023 look at this vshape it went from 180 all the way down to $84 I think it was the low $83 was the low we had this from 2021 all the way down to January 2023 so basically a year and a half and then we recovered this vshape do we have another vshape back down to 80 I mean I don't know like is thing are is Amazon that much worse of a business is the consumer getting that much worse I guess we'll find out but if anything I feel like we have some pain some pullback uh correction which is supposed to happen every year we're supposed to get 10% pullback at least at one point of the year um and then we bounc back higher because the narrative is still intact but I think we're going to have to see admit I see some green here it looks like some stocks are being bought in video went from 103 to 106 AMD is moving now yeah I see some green as well the NASDAQ it was down 2.9 now it's down 2.8 paler was at 2385 now it's at 2437 Robin Hood was at 1790 now it's at 1812 um broadcom is down 2% grinder oh this is the this is the one we've been waiting for right grinder finally is below 11 look at grinder still holding up it's still not even at $9 yet it's [ __ ] holding up somehow um we need grinder a nine then we go long then we go long the Gaye but we got to see if he gets there uh well Derek remember Optimus is uh Optimus is is is wait is Tesla doing an Optimus event no no Tesla's robotx event is on uh 1010 now now it's 1010 unless Optimus puts out something on the 8th of uh August which I don't think they are yeah so the the FSD Robo taxi cyber cap thing that got delayed from 88 to 1010 so now we have to wait until October to see what the hell Tesla does um but we don't have any updates on Optimus yet and maybe figure ends up ends up stealing that shine gays don't stop seeking hookups in a recession a readed they don't they don't so like uh I mean I don't understand why you buy grinder out of all the stocks there I just get I don't get the thesis on buying dating Gap stocks it's it's I I haven't bought grinder it's just it's an argument in my head that I'm still trying to make sense of around an asymmetric opportunity you know I found a substack yesterday of a guy who felt the same thing like a like a investing substack I can't believe I found an article on grinder and he wrote about it and I was like damn like there's at least someone else in the world who's kind of thinking maybe there's a thesis here I just don't like the valuation of course Amazon's better nvidia's better this is one of more more of those like hey maybe this thing like triples in a couple years because there's something here that the market doesn't see but no position in it yet still waiting for a cheaper price no no personal experience the app kind of sucks by the way that that's the thing about the app I downloaded the app just to look at it the app the user experience is not good like it's like you would not think a Silicon Valley tech company built it but people still use it because there's no other option that's another part of the thesis it's like no one goes anywhere other than here when it comes for this specific need even though the user experience is like less than adequate right so that's another reason I kind of like the overall argument iwm getting SCH smacked today down 4% it's down worse than all the other the other indices today uh let's go to CNBC dude are they freaking out what are they what are now I would imagine they have to be freaking out a little bit [Music] um yeah let's uh let's pull up a couple of different things on CBC let's just go to the beginning let's see what they say right here let's see oh boy oh boy oh boy oh boy is it 4M yet oh my God it is time to close the markets here we go it's weakening on this idea of a weaker economy and potentially more fed interest rate Cuts especially against the dollar Yen which everybody watches we're seeing an almost 2% drop there so that's a massive unwind of this trade that was the most popular trade sort of underpinning the market rally all year long it's really going the other way and as that has reached the lows of the day we've seen all sectors in the S&P lower we started off the hour last hour where we had some of the defensives rallying like Staples as a safe haven and Utilities in real estate they're all in the red right now no one is getting hit worse though than consumer discretionary and that's in part I mean that's Amazon big amazon weight there and a BIG Story Amazon down almost 11% uh second worst S&P the only one worse is Intel on pays for its worst intraday performance in its history and then you got to mention quickly the vix a couple days ago closing above 19 was seen as a big deal highs of the year now 28 as the cost of hedging is getting awfully expensive yep goes up volatility goes up as the market sells off you have a few factors going on so not a great Market to have a mixed quarter that's the story with Amazon and certainly to have a a very poor quarter like Intel you're getting punished for that but the backdrop here is the economy is showing greater signs of weakness than the market was expecting and economists were expecting just after the FED share left interest rates on hold even hinting at a September meeting well guess what now the market is telling the fed you need to do more a double in September that's the the odds for that have gone up past 70% right now on weaker jobs and I would put in WoW odds for a double cut are higher than they ever been uh for September so markets are ready for more rate Cuts I guess yesterday's weaker manufacturing too uh pmis it's been a series of weak prints for more on the selloff today let's bring in regions Asset Management cioo Alan mcnight overseas nearly $60 billion doar in assets under management Allan appreciate the help today good to see you great to be back thanks for having me Alan do you dare Buy into this strength I think we do as we get past earnings season I think that right now the market is still trying to deal with the reality that earnings aren't quite as good as people's expected they're a little maybe a little light but the reality is when you look at 75% of the S&P having reported we're still looking at approximately 11 and a half percent earnings growth this quarter which is pretty strong yes although people were beginning to talk about whether that earnings growth would come from mag seven or the rest of the market and even smaller midcaps is that now and doubt I think it is and I think that's what you're seeing with the selloff in the Russell 2000 today as people are pulling back from the trade that has worked through the last couple of weeks with a slowing economy with a bit of a concern around rates small cap is definitely getting penalized so what are you telling your clients about what to do right now is it is it is it really worth rethinking everything as the market appears to be doing just in the last 48 hours we don't think it's a time to be rethinking or completely reallocating or rebalancing what we would say is continue to reinvest in those names that are delivering growth what we saw with meta what we've seen thus far with some of the um Consumer Staples names and even some of the um other healthc care names so earnings are still good they're just not great and so I think right now the key is to try to stay calm carry on and really watch to see how we look at through the course of this year from an economic perspective speaking of economic perspectives we just had a discussion about yields and the fed and not moving this week even after Canada did and the ECB did and the bank of England did uh do you think this is the Market's way of punishing what they might view as a policy mistake we think to a certain degree it is I mean what we would view from the economic perspective and an employment perspective is it's cooling but not collapsing we're seeing a slowing and hiring but we're not actually seen a a full-on layoff situation and so I think the market is just trying to process through it we've had a relatively benign Market as you noted earlier with regard to volatility through the year so now the market just playing catchup a little bit in terms of reacting yeah there was some discussion coming out of the perceive to be a little bit of a slow move yeah there was some discussion coming out of the print this morning that it wasn't so much about job creation weakness as it was a healthy dose of Labor Supply although that might also tell you something about what the consumer is thinking right now I think it is I mean I think that the reality is the consumer has pulled back a bit from purchasing from a product perspective and now a service perspective we heard that from the airlines in terms of really a transition I think the the consumer is a bit on a wait and seee mode in terms of how do my how do my job prospects look what are the opportunities going forward so we do see a little bit of that coming through but again we don't see a collapsing it's really just more of cooling uh very important to watch uh given what what's happened to the unemployment rate now up 9/10 from the cycle low Allan appreciate it important Market day as you can tell thanks Alan mcnight oh boy oh boy oh boy ah Market's starting to bounce a little bit guys we're getting a little bit of momentum here um might just be a little sympathy bounce right now but um recovering just a little bit let me pull it up here's the thing let's let's paint a let's paint another picture another picture let's paint a little bit more of a bullish picture while keeping into context what's going on why are things red things are red because unemployment is going up unemployment is going up therefore the consumer is struggling consumer struggling means company earnings are being priced in as being worse for the next couple quarters therefore things are going to be bad the bullish argument in video right here at 107 pounder 2453 Rob at 1820 Tesla 210 uh Sofi 674 a little bit of a bounce ring the bullish argument is we needed a pullback because [ __ ] got way too uh intense S&B was at 565 right even Robin Hood although I love Robin Hood at 2450 I mean like Robin Hood was going up aggressively and they didn't even put up earnings right same thing with pter I love pter 29 it was almost 30 bucks like didn't put up any numbers it just came there the bull case is this was was a very healthy needed correction markets are still up phenomenally year to date paler still up 40% year to date Robin Hood's still up I think 40 to 45% year to date Robin was $10 in the beginning of the year P was $16 in the beginning of the year so although it sucks to see the decline they're up they have performed they have done what they needed to do and they put up the numbers to get those results having a nice 10% pullback in all these stocks which are basically all down 10% right now I don't know I don't know if that's unhealthy I think that's actually like what the market has wanted to see for a while and the Bears might be taking the victory today in a world in which this is actually something very normal that happens in any bull market now obviously the bear case we've talked about exens today is um a recession starts starts becoming real and that's where the Bears are 100% correct and uh and shit's about to hit the fan but the other argument is that if there's not enough indications of a recession then I don't know if the Bears right I think this is just a normal correction it's not the beginning of an of a recession if it's a correction why did unemployment go up surprisingly well here's the thing unemployment unemployment is not it's not a surprise that unemployment is going up it's a surprise to no one it's a surprise to no one that we're seeing unemployment go up unemployment needs to go up to quell inflation like this is the this is the nature of of like the economy that we live in you either have have high on inflation when inflation gets really high right you either continue to have a high High inflation at one point it was 10% in June 2022 or you have low inflation but to induce low inflation you have to get people to stop spending stop growing which is why we raised the rates in the first place I don't think it's a surprise that unemployment is up the problem is the bad news that unemployment is up which is bad news because obviously the economy technically slows down is not good news anymore even a couple months ago that would be a great number because the market that was looking at a 3.5% headline CPI that's like begging for a a two- handle on it would say man we need more unemployment to get inflation to come down therefore stocks would fall because inflation was still tricking Now Stocks are falling not because inflation is is is is not falling but because the broader Market's weakening so the navigation of that situation I still feel is possible AKA a pseudo soft Landing because you've got the rate cuts and because we haven't had a 10% correction yet if it is not navigated correctly all all [ __ ] hits the fan and and and we get we get we get a recession we get a 30% pullback in the NASDAQ like we did in 2022 but I'm I'm afraid to say that's going to happen right now when we haven't had a 10% correction and we're supposed to have a 10% correction and this is what JP has been waiting for this is the moment he's wanted and uh and as a result of that now that's what we're getting [Music] um Let me let me let me call Steve is he uh how is he doing let me see if he picks up let's see let's see let's see Chris I just see you in the chat Chris are you available I can get you there as well Steve how are you I'm live right now do you have a minute for you sure wait you just texted me your are you are you what did you you texted me you can't make the market close or what did you just text no I can because I'm I took off today oh you took off today okay I took off today oh you took off today okay so everyone okay great so why' you take off today Steve I felt like taking off today was I have a ton of vacation time and I had no meetings so I figured today was a good day to take off Oh I thought it was because uh because of other things going on why because the Market's down and people are overreacting and Steve bought more yeah all good keep going down keep going down okay so let me uh Steve so if you're home can you I'm about to send uh Chris the WhatsApp can uh the uh streamyard can you just can you get on streamyard you don't have to show your face but can you join through stre I can get on streamyard okay that's all right folks so we're not going to do the market close today we're just going to turn this Market open into a podcast with Stephen Chris so I'm sending you the link right now okay get ready to tell us why you bought Intel because TJ bought a lot of Intel as well so really dude he bought [ __ ] 7500 shares of Intel [Music] great that all right I'm sending you the link I'll send you the link where are you sending it email or I'm I'm no Steve I'm gonna put it on a pigeon and fly it to your house I know like yes I'm sending it to your email or okay yeah all all right I'll see you soon I can only mess with Steve like that I can only mess with Steve like that all right folks we got a podcast baby we're doing a emergency Market podcast Chris I just sent you the link and Steve let me email it to him and uh we're gonna keep talk so yeah guys I don't think we'll do Market close because honestly there's not much to analyze other than everything we've looked at but i' rather have this be the pseudo Market close because um because we'll get joined with Steve and Chris and we'll get to break down everything going on right now okay let me get Steve's email here we go all right um okay so here we go let's get into it Steve should be joining in a [ __ ] uh Chris pel you are live what's up hey what's going on man um yeah I've been tracking the markets just you know and I was really looking through the labor force um the unemployment rate one of the things I think people are missing um so here's a couple of scenarios number one I think that we are likely to get into a recession but it's going to be a very very mild one as of right now Kris and Steve Join the FED has a lot a lot of room to cut interest rates right so one of the good things that we have going on right now is that you know we're not in a situation where we've got you know a recession on our hands and interest rates are already at zero and now the FED has to just go ape [ __ ] and buy like a bunch of treasuries on the open market just to support the economy like uh like covid so the FED definitely has a lot of tools to um to deal with this current situation and I don't think that the FED is um not going to use them um in this scenario the other thing is labor force participation is starting to recover so one of the things and let me just what what do you mean by labor force participation okay so let me show share my screen and you'll you'll see one second okay so can you see my screen yeah okay one of the things that we have to keep in mind is that during like before covid certain subset of the population was actively looking for work and working right that peaked in December and January of 2020 to be around 63.3% of the population so basically 63.3% of the population was working you know so the other 40% is usually kids and older people right right Co happens everything drops off and now you know you've have all the stimulus from covid so know people are choosing not to work or people have a lot more optionality so they might be taking you know less full-time jobs they might be taking part-time and one of the things that's been happening is that now more and more people are starting to get back into labor force it's still well under the labor force participation that we had um prior to covid where we still got about two three points left but the one thing that I think a lot of people are missing here is that you know when more people have jobs that just creates a better economy it creates growth in the economy so over the last like uh three years you know basically we have been coming back but we're we're not like in an overheated market so a lot of people think that hey you know what we're going to get into a recession and everything and to some degree maybe they're right but I still I still think there's ample enough room for further growth how does how does this number reconcile with the unemployment number we got this morning how do you like compare both of those well number one the number of jobs that grew grew just at a slower Pace than what people were expecting so it's not like we were losing jobs right if we're losing jobs that's really bad like imagine right now there was a print and it said 50,000 jobs were negative right right right expectations might have been a little bit higher than what people are thinking but so we have to take into consideration that recession happen when people lose jobs on mass not when the number of jobs that we're expecting all of a sudden don't hit the number that we want all it means is that the job the growing the growth rate of jobs is slowing it doesn't mean that we're going negative on jobs you know and unemployment remember it's not just oh you know what this many people you know are are unemployed it also means that how many people are actively looking for a job also postco with all the stimulus a lot of people dropped off the job market now you're starting to see kind of a return of a lot of people with all that covid stimulus kind of pretty much all done now now the economy has to kind of function on its own without all that additional stimulus and everything and I think there's plenty of room for for people to to to be okay in this market you know so what is your reaction to the broader stock market selloff uh Steve by the way guys he said his camera is not working so he'll be on in a second I think it's I think it's healthy because to some degree we had just so many um so much bullishness especially in the tech side with AI and everything that we did need some level of Correction and this is how typically markets correct there's never a gradual slow decline it's usually a fear fear comes in and then you know people just sell things off and then you have another leg of going up slowly so you know there's a saying in the market when things go down they're like an elevator and when things go up they go up like an escalator right so look at just look at your chart right now look at what happened in October to um uh what do you call it from last August to October you had this giant Decline and then all of a sudden you had this nice gradual ride up that's exactly what's probably going to happen again so right now we're seeing this quote unquote correction but I think the markets are a little bit oversold right now and we'll get a chance to basically bottom feed on a lot of great companies um and and chill you know one of the one of the things that I love and this is something I think Joseph Carlson put on Twitter he said when fundamentals are improving but the stock price is going down that's amazing that's the best yeah so when you see numbers like you see like companies putting out you know huge free cash flow numbers huge operating income numbers and then the stock price is going down it's like wait a second that just gives that company optionality to do crazy things like a lot more share BuyBacks you know or or return Capital to shareholders via other means or invest in certain certain um certain things at a cheaper rate and end up growing the business so right now I think we we all kind of just need to just relax I mean yeah the Market's down whatever it'll recover you know being a long-term investor means you got to deal with some of these red days as well so it's all good okay let's bring in our good friend onto the show Steve what's up up Steve enough with the green screen man just where are you right now what do you mean this stupid Green Screen Man like like all these people whoever put up the green screen like pretending like we don't freaking know you know like so I have stuff on my couch behind me that I don't want shown and I'm too lazy to move it okay Pokemon cards or something or you gotta get a good streaming setup Steve come on man you're on these pods more than more than a lot of people you know you got to get some books behind some fake plants a couple of Lights here and there you know that's too much work yeah all right Steve what's your reaction to the Meltdown we're seeing today I hope it goes down morees I'm just going to keep buying I don't get scared I don't have paper hands I think this is a complete overreaction and especially Amazon like this is crazy what's going on uh the consumer is weakening from a variety of different metrics companies Hershey statement Amazon even said the consumer is spending low do you think that's a reason enough for a 10% selloff if the consumer why no so the fact that people that Amazon came in with a mixed bag of earnings is crazy like I would love for people actually to look at what Amazon guided for and then what they actually generated because their guidance for Q2 was 144 billion to 149 billion what did they come in with with ref 148 billion okay that's at the top end of their range the fact that analysts that don't work for the company came up with a number that was at the high that they wanted to see Amazon made their number they came at the high end of the range that they guided for they shouldn't be punished for that free cash flow is high profitability is high and even if the consumer is weakening I don't think that necessarily is going to translate to Amazon because more people are probably buy items on Amazon rather than going to the store yeah but Amazon stock would still take a hit right even if short term maybe but I think that the fun this is the cheapest Amazon has been in pretty much its history yeah on a forward EPS basis like this doesn't wor me at all I look at the actual raw numbers that they're producing and do I think that they're going to be more profitable in two years from now yes so if I liked it at 180 and I was buying at 180 why am I not going to buy 161 and oh it's now 167 168 looks like it was a good move on my part Chris your thoughts on Amazon and big Tech RIT large and these earnings did we survive big Tech earnings now that they're basically done yeah I think so I think overall the market right now is just a little bit there's just fear running through the market and in which case people are selling things off a little bit um too soon I actually called Matt this morning around 10: and I was like hey Matt I think we're done with the TMF trade and we basically sold off all of our TMF position and we bought tqq to ride the and that's actually working out so far so you know so just do the one day chart and you'll see how big of a reversal tqq had today you know yeah there you go 57 well oh yeah because it came down from yeah yeah yeah I see what you're yeah so this is what happens man A lot of times people are you know people get a little too complacent the Vick's jumped crazy crazy high today you know I don't know if you've been checking the vi 57% yeah we're all in super fear mode right now and usually super fear mode is when people over rationally sell great companies that are doing well I think for me I look at the cruise lines as an indicator of the General Health of like the people that are at the top and how are they doing which is uh which is pretty good um so I don't think that there is as deep of a recession where it's like a general people session I think at the bottom level of the population curve like at the lower income spectrum they are definitely struggling but you know the their struggles are going to slowly go away as you know as the as the FED starts to lower interest rates because one they're more dependent on credit in my opinion and when you cut interest rates you're actually loosening credit so when you loosen credit you're going to have you know the ability to spend more and do more things and I think that will definitely help out I think also shelter is coming down nicely in a lot of areas and hopefully that Trend continues because the one area that I think a lot of lowincome people and even middle inome people are getting squeezed by it's just higher shelter costs so as as shelter cost moderate but wage growth you know ticks up slightly it just brings a lot more balance into uh into the economy so I I I think this is a great opportunity that you know we get a little bit of a pullback but then there's also like a chance that we see you know some recovery also you know and keep in mind I don't necessarily think people individuals are necessar necessarily selling companies like Amazon this is probably a lot of high frequency trading this is probably a lot of stop losses this is a lot of algorithmic in the market and big swings become bigger because ofs like it just it is what it is Steve it's this [ __ ] Index market that I [ __ ] absolutely hate and I hate [ __ ] Warren Buffett I'm sorry to curse I don't give a [ __ ] I'm just going to curse I hate that Warren Buffett that son of a [ __ ] [ __ ] comes out and says just buy the index just buy the index indexes are the best don't even like price price Discovery doesn't matter just buy the index and now all of a sudden every [ __ ] idiot on the street is buying the [ __ ] Index right think what's wrong with the index what's wrong with the index to be fair Chris most people don't want get as in the weeds as you or me are admit and the index is great for most people no no it it is good for most people but the problem is now everyone including institutions are doing the same thing and not even relying on [ __ ] real price Discovery anymore so now all of a sudden if the index is what what happens you have amplification of the stock going in a certain direction so now the stocks especially um among big Tech they're trading more on momentum than actual fundamental reality so like if you think about it did Amazon deserve to be down 10% today [ __ ] no did did these other companies deser deserve to be uh sold off this much and this goes into my hypothesis on why meta took a huge huge 70% draw down in 2021 if you guys remember that that should not be possible but because of index investing what ends up happening is you've got people and and companies being bought by the index because it's like oh look the stock price went up a little bit now the indexes all have to buy the stock and because that index bought the stock another index has to buy the stock and if another index buys the stock another one has to buy the index stock just to keep tracking this [ __ ] thing and now all of a sudden the market cap jumps like crazy and then you've got overvaluation and then the same thing happens on the opposite end when the stock goes down slightly now this index to rebalance itself based on market cap has to sell off that company even though the fundamentals are right and now you've got a magnified move down so I think index investing is a good idea but if everyone does it it's the most [ __ ] thing on the planet uh Steve okay I actually agree with Chris on a lot of this the big thing here is like why is Apple up right now Chris I think you would agree passive index flows are coming into apple and that's why it's up right now even though the entire Market's kind of down I mean that's not the only reason it's up but that's why it's elevated like apple probably does not deserve to be at a 36p with 1% growth but the index multiple indexes keep buying it right yeah and so if they keep buying it that'll keep it elevated uh what do you think about Nvidia right now Steve start with you bought more this morning Chris your thoughts on Nvidia no I mean Nvidia is NVIDIA man they they they caught the tail they caught the they caught a huge Tailwind of AI and the thing is as AI growth spend moderates I think that there's going to be a bigger retracement Nvidia so I once again I think this is this is how basically markets become irrational and I think to some degree Nvidia is irrational the reason why I think it's irrational is because one they do they did really well in earnings so now all of a sudden all these people are buying the index started buying and then all these people foming in they started buying and all of a sudden now you've got Nvidia growing like crazy going higher and higher the problem is this is a cyclical business if there is any indication that a Slowdown is coming you're going to start to see Nvidia come down the problem is when Nvidia comes down and its market cap shrinks all of a sudden now these stupid indexes are going to sell this thing and it's going to be a magnified sell going down yeah you know so this is one of the reasons why if you look at Jensen Jensen's selling right look at Jensen's like Insider sales Jens it is scheduled though it is scheduled doesn't matter all these people they can change their schedule at any time by the way that's one of the dirtiest secrets that is in Wall Street that no one acknowledges that all these like compensation plans that have like pre-planned sales you can change your pre-planned sales as many times as you want you could change it last Tuesday and say you know what it's a pre-plan sale no this if it is a real PR pre-planned sale that you haven't changed for like the last you know like five years that's one thing but these people can change that [ __ ] at any time you know I think that Nvidia is going to continue to grow for the next two to three years and then it's going to significantly decline I could be wrong on that but when you look at what's actually being said on these earnings calls the biggest companies in the world are not slowing down on their cback spend they're not slowing down on their what if they do if we get into a recession that's the they're not gonna stop the the recession doesn't matter for meta or Google no no but but if we get into a recession and meta's AD business takes a hit they need to be cost efficient why would they be buying more gpus that they technically don't so if we go into recession that's actually going to be probably positive for meta because people will only advertise with meta and no no but but yeah I get that argument but overall advertising will come down like the broader pie so so met is still gonna take a hit make no mistake about it isn't the first place they look to cut expenses besides their employees this capex [ __ ] that they're not really using yet because it's not monetizable this is going to be what drives the next sitation of growth whoever slows down if everybody else doesn't they're now at a disadvantage these companies aren't slowing down especially when you look at their balance sheets and their free cash flow these aren't companies that have to worry about interest rates or have to worry about a recession okay let's say if they don't slow down what if they negotiate with Nvidia to give them a better deal because they're not paying 40,000 for a chip anymore that still hurts Nvidia right I'm I'm just putting the argument out there right like it would hurt nvidia's margins but at the moment it doesn't look like anybody is slowing down anytime soon on a buildout and when Zuckerberg comes out and says that llama 4 is going to take 10x the amount of chips to train and then you have Microsoft coming out and alphabet coming out saying we're going balls to the wall with spending and it's better to spend than not to spend everybody else who wants to be in the conversation it's going to have to do the same thing and is not slowing down at the moment and you're talking about a company that has over 50% profit margins even their profit margins go to 45% doesn't matter if these companies are still spending like this but Steve you have to remember one thing at the end of the day these companies are still publicly listed with shareholders the last thing they want to do is have another metaverse like flop where they're investing all this capital and there's no tangible return and then eventually the shareholders take a hit and they say no you need to stop doing this crap right board of directors get together and say look we get that we you think AI is the future but moderate your spending so it's not always like oh the company wants to keep investing yeah the company may want to keep investing in a certain sector because they they're over you know they're very bullish about it but at the same time they do have they are answerable to a board of directors who will say you know what maybe we need to at least moderate some of our spending I mean the other thing to remember also is that you know each one of these guys is trying to get off of the Nvidia tax no one wants to pay the Nvidia tax forever and and one last thing is you know I get when you invent a car and it's a really good car and it like gets you from point A to point B in in x amount of time and then the next generation of car gets you there faster but eventually you're going to hit speed limits that's the problem with AI in my opinion where I think the theoretical Improvement in AI is going to be a lot more limited and the number of use cases hasn't necessarily panned out to the degree where it justifies all this additional spending other than hey that hey my competition is spending money so let me spend more money like I don't think that these companies can can survive with that kind of business model you know or at least they're not gonna they can survive but they're just not going to be um stewards of capital so I think overall Nvidia is gonna be fine um but I do think that we are due for a retracement in Nvidia probably at a 50 like a drop down of about 50% but that's just my opinion on yeah Chris I agree with you at some point Nvidia is and when that happens it's not going to be a small retracement I just don't think we're anywhere near Amazon Microsoft or alphabet utilizing their own silicon I think that were at least a year or two away from that and they are trying and they're probably getting more efficient but that's not stopping them ordering from Nvidia now that's a down the road couple year use case but Steve that's the whole point the market is forward-looking right so anytime even a slight bit of slowness means that the market is going to over over um overthink it and say oh wait what a second maybe next quarter they're going to have even less I mean look at what happened with Celsius okay Celsius is a good example of how things can flip on a dime basically they were growing they were growing their they were growing their business like crazy all these people were buying Celsius you know um they were doing good one or two uh uh what is that thing called um news reports came out from beverage insights that you know what their growth rate is moderating from 100% to less than 30 and now all of a sudden the stock gets cut in half you know so this is where I say yes be an Nvidia all you want to be but at the first sign of any sort of slowdown you best you best either have some puts ready to go or you better sell out of your position otherwise you're going to get caught up in a in a downward uh downward um move and remember we have to keep I have to keep saying this because it's only going to make sense semiconductors are a cyclical business I know some people are going to say well what about the software Revenue Nvidia is making software Revenue yeah what percentage of their revenue software what percent of their business is software right now software revenue is not enough to make a dent with Nvidia exct you're right it is going to be a cical business and I'll probably mimic dram the way we got boom bus Cycles but not for at least another year or two from a profitability standpoint yeah but see that's the why even try to risk it why try to risk playing musical chairs the collapse comes because Nvidia right now and it's also herd mentality and psychologically because can you zoom in on this are can you zoom in is this an Nvidia argument you're trying to make on your screen well I mean you look at Nvidia it's trading this thing has grown into its multiple it's trading cheaper than Apple I mean it's but Steve but Steve where are you getting these forward PE numbers from these are what stre is calling for consensus estimates right but that's what I'm saying when has the street ever called [ __ ] right otherwise we if the street always got everything right we would never even have any sort of price Discovery ever the keep mind Nvidia has continuously beat all the forecast and the end of August on the 28th is going to be a big deal to see if they're keeping up with these growth rates and what the forward guidance is but if they do BS extremely cheap for growing EPS 60% over the next two years but Steve if they don't we're going to [ __ ] oh if they don't 65 but Steve that's the point that I'm trying to make the expectations that they're going to grow are so high which is why their PE looks so attractive I mean that is the definition of a value trap right there saying oh look next year they're going to perform really well so their PE is going to be really low relative today they don't perform and now all of a sudden all these idiots have to have to change their price targets to a much lower number I mean we just literally said about 5 minutes ago right with Amazon all these idiots on the street thought Amazon was going to grow this much the company said no we're going to grow this much and because they missed some no-name analyst their target all of a sudden Amazon is getting a 10% haircut today right that is fair that is that that did play out exactly like Chris said yeah I mean look Amazon guided for between 144 and 149 and they came in at 148 and a half wherever they came in at and missed some ridiculous number that was on the high end and took a 11% hair Point crazy right but that's what I'm trying to say like why are you trusting the analyst for NVIDIA but not trusting them for for you know for Amazon the reason I'm TR I'm trusting the numbers somewhat is because of what NV Adit you're yawning you never yawn you're right I always have bro that's what he's getting old dude Chris and I got this go to Starbucks you know help out my Starbucks go get a coffee I can't afford Starbucks today dude I'm down like 50 Grand you think I can for Starbucks what do you think yo I I pray for your hood calls every day on it I literally I'm like dude dude the crazy thing is dude they're still profitable yeah because I got that low oh well the 2026 ones are gonna be fine 2025 ones are still they're still up like 30 40% because I pray for I pray for your position every day I'm like God if you if you do one thing for Amit make sure that his 2025 calls go in the money like we're going all the way bro we're [ __ ] going all the way we're doing do that to don't take away his gains right look but here's the thing here's the thing speaking of hood right Chris by the way you said you wanted to get in Hood this is your dip bro I mean I'm tapped bro my cruise lines are killing me right now so I'm pretty tapped I see your Discord you're like I'm ready to get in Hood I just need below 20 here you go you got it you know so this is one of the hard things right like do you buy the dip on a dates like today so let's talk about the cruise line so so is this something that's Recession Proof or what do you think happens to these guys and what are you doing with your position because I know you have a lot of this how are you navigating this no I'm just holding it I think I think it eventually it'll come back to normal again I mean the the company's earnings all beat they L Norwegian did a three quarters in a row they beat and raised guidance okay so a lot of people are selling off the cruise lines right now because they're like oh well look if we're getting a recession that means that future demand is going to be lower and if future demand is lower that means that profitability is not going to be there uh and this is this is the part about price discovery that I think people mess up on which is they don't do the fundamental analysis or at least the at the company level to understand what what this means for um for um Carnival and Norwegian um not so much for Royal Caribbean because Royal Caribbean's in a different boat but Carnival and Norwegian both took on a lot of debt to survive covid now a lot of debt if you if you do an analysis on their debt especially Carnival their cost to Capital right now is about 8% per year okay and they've got about $28 billion doar in debt okay I mean they're the largest operative Cru ships on the planet so they they've got a tremendous amount of debt but what's good is that on an eida level their eida has recovered significantly but a lot of their earnings now is going towards paying interest on their debt so if you go back to preco they were paying about 200 million a year in interest charges right now they're paying pay2 billion dollar a year in interest charges so yeah that's going to impact them significantly the good thing is if recession does come quote unquote what you're going to see is the Fed cutting interest rates like crazy and If the Fed starts to cut interest rates these guys can refinance a lot of that higher yielding debt that they took on during covid for much much lower uh lower prices okay so so I have a question here and Steve I'll get you in this as well I'm gonna start with Chris then Steve like so if the FED Cuts rates right and we're we're in this little like correction pullback territory right now whether it's Robin Hood Carnival Cru Nvidia paler is the Fed G to effectively be able to cut rates for this Market to go back to where it was three weeks ago or is this rate cutting going to be bearish because the Market's going be like well it's a recession and these rate cuts are reactionary and then cruise lines like people can't afford a cruise at the end of the day if we're in a recession like how do you navigate all of this based on this rate cut that we now think is inevitable so couple of things number one you have to look at the the core demographics that go on cruises they're usually people with a lot of money and a lot of time yeah but CHR the perception is still going to be like right right spending right from the mar perception perception is always going to be one of the aspects that you have to take into consideration when you're trying to determine what a what value um you want to assign a specific sector um my thing right now is that with the Fed rate Cuts it'll be easier for these guys to service their debt far more than a pullback in demand for cruises correct correct correct what does that mean for the stock that's my question you're right about this fundamental debt refinancing all but like do you think the stock will have enough juice to to reflect those fundamentals if yeah yeah over the next two years I think this I think they have a good opportunity to delever and also grow their Top Line and at the same time it'll just be like they'll grow their earnings one of the one of the things that I think we'll see over the next next couple of years and this is something that I think Tom Le kind of keeps bringing up is that you know you're going to see this rally kind of broaden out a lot of what we've seen in terms of um growth over the last couple of years has been led by the mega cap 8 right so a lot of what you're seeing at the top on the S&P 500 is Mega cap 8 getting tons of attention and getting tons of people buying into them and the rest of the the stock market has kind of just been you know hanging out and growing but not growing at at a at a you know at the same pace so I think now is the opportunity to actually look for a lot of value plays that are have a tremendous amount of debt on their balance sheet that is going to be able to to be un unlocked and unlevered over over the next couple of years and those sectors will end up actually um helping you know readjust the market higher so okay Steve we get a rake cut how do you think the market reacts do you think the Market's like all right Robin it back to 23 Nvidia back to 140 or do you think the Market's like ah we now we want to see if shit's really going to hit the fan now that the FED cut what do you think happens before I answer that Chris guess what's in the green today what's in the green alria baby I can't deal with the smoking thing dude can't do it it is it's up Verizon also Chris is in the green value is in the green well the thing is with Verizon look you you right now you're gonna get utilities doing really well because regardless whether you have a recession or not people are going to need electricity you know so utilities are going to do well you're also going to see companies like American Tower crown castle and Verizon and AT&T they're going to do well why because all of them are in the tech telecommunication space regardless whether you get a recession or not you're you're not going to cancel your cell phone plan you know so th those companies will be fine so I think a lot of times people are just moving their money into the areas that have been traditionally safe during recessions and once again I think this is just people buying up indexes without realizing or selling off companies and sectors B because they're like oh their rotation is naturally going to be in this sector so I'm going to park my money here without realizing that hey there's actually value opportunities um among certain names in uh the unloved sectors so so M before I answer your question about hood and whatnot I'm gonna amplify what I've been saying for three to six months okay you are going to say when the FED Cuts rates money come off the and go into incom producing assets because investors are not going to be able to recreate 5% yields that they become accustomed to on their cash some people don't need to generate a 10 to 15% return every year some people are using it for other reasons and you're going to see a segment of quality income producing stocks catch a bid and when you go a level further you're going to see derivatives of the AI PL bids such as I would say embridge next era energy utilities and pipelines because with the spend increasing you're going to need more natural gas and more electricity that's just a fact and these are Quality Companies and when you look at the charts the charts look pretty good and when you look at the spends that all these companies are doing the amount of energy that's going to be required for the expansion and data centers these are probably going to be amount of capital and I still think a lot of these Investments are undervalued because the news cycle caters to Big Tech now when a rate cut occurs I've been telling you for a while my biggest concern was we hit 4.1% on unemployment today we hit 4.3% correct so we are 20 bips away from um the indicator that has not failed since 1948 ever unemployment increases by 1% we are either in a recession or recession immediately follows the F we have 0 4% till we get to that 1% no 0 2% why because we were at 3.5% last July oh 3.5 I thought we at 3.4 okay no we're at 3.5 we're at 4.3 now the fed's been late the FED should have cut Ed and shouldn't have been March but it should have been May the bottom line that they they have always been late and they wanted to I think stay restrictive as a just in case because things looked like they were doing well but they're playing chicken right now and they don't have to and when they keep rates restrictive like Chris said you have a lot of companies that are going to have to refi their debt in 2025 some of it at then to 2024 rates to come down so the profit models still stay intact and so so so when when when they cut rates you think the econom you think the Market's gonna like it a lot I don't know if the if it's going to save the market immediately I think it's going to create a Better Business environment because now companies may actually start expanding again instead of taking a restrictive stance I mean all we're seeing is rest restrictive stances across the board and now with Intel cutting 15% other comp I mean there's more of a reason to reduce rates now than there was a week ago and I I wish the FED meeting was next week Chris what do you think about an emergency August cut I think it's it's it's a possibility they're not going to admit they were wrong come on they're not going to admit that they were wrong but you know they said that they were going to be data dependent well here you go the data is here you know isn't the data isn't the the data is not that bad it's bad for us because we're in the stock market but the FED wanted all of this like the problem is unemployment no they wanted this last year or six months ago they didn't want it now but but regardless they got it right so yeah aren't they happy that unemployment's up 1 percent it's up two% actually it was up two points today it wasn't just up one no point two we're talking about from 3.5 last year yeah yeah no I mean we're still in a we're we're still in a good labor market it's just that the one thing you don't want to do is let labor force participate I mean you don't want you don't want unemployment to start like um what's the word like rolling down a hill because what happens is it starts to really negatively impact the economy and then now you have to come in much much harder just to get things to recover so so you know when you have like let's say a four-person economy like let's say IIT you have a job I have a job um Steve has a job and another person has a job all of us buy goods and services from each other but the thing is if one of us gets laid off now there's a gap in between that four person economy if two people get laid off there's even a bigger Gap these gaps end up adding up to what could be a giant recession usually the Federal Reserve has to usually come in and do spending or at least create an economic situation where borrowing costs are easier so that you know someone like Steve can pick up the slack in which case the next round you know another job can be created instead so right now the FED still has the opportunity to kind of like save the save the general economy um from going into like a deep deep recession um I think that they have been waiting for a moment like this and I think the market is giving them the signal I think that especially the bond market if you really want to find out where all the smart money hangs out it's in the bond market and the bond market is clearly signaling rate cuts and they should have took that and started with the rate Cuts this month you know if they had started this month I think today's numbers wouldn't have nearly impacted the the the what is that thing called the stock market as much because it would have been like okay the FED is on the ball like they understand that the economy is going into um a bit of a Slowdown and that they're ahead of it so okay so then the question is do you guys think 50 basis points is or 75 is on the table or do we get stuck with 25 and the FED still 50 is highly highly unlikely in my opinion but it's still possible and especially why why is it unlikely why well that would set the wrong tone because they would say that oh you know what [ __ ] is really bad but then why why do you think an August cut would be good wouldn't that set the wrong tone too no because this way at least with August cut they could justify it by saying that you know what the data is actually showing that there is Market weak weakness um not weakness that there is a Slowdown in inflation and we want to we want to you know be data dependent the thing that you want right now is credibility if you've been saying for the last year you're going to be data dependent data dependent then be data dependent you know the numbers turn the numbers have gone in your favor so now you can use that as the excuse to start the cutting process and the thing is you don't want to do too many large cuts at the same time because that really really messes up the confidence number the confidence of the the market and the other thing is you only have really three rate cut possibilities left for the rest of the year so you have to take that into consideration if you try if they come in and do like a 75 basis point cut we got a problem on our hands you know you don't want to Spook the market so I think I think an August rate cut would be wouldn't be bad in my opinion I I don't think it would be bad I just don't think they're going to do it and look I've always said I don't subscribe to the sentiment that they were putting out they have a dual mandate and they really have taken the other side of this mandate more seriously because at the end of the day if people are going to spend 103 instead of 104 that's a better alternative than massive layoffs so I would rather see unemployment lower and going down and have to spend an extra dollar or two on my purchases than seeing other Americans get laid off yeah they need the cost of capital to come down they need business expansion Andy should be a bigger mandate than price stability because you'll get price stability when you let the free markets work themselves out it goes competition breeds lower prices it just it always has it was actually very toxic for the better part of a year right where it uh unemployment went up and we were happy as investors like people losing their jobs but we're happy because inflation's coming down I don't think anybody should be happy with anybody losing jobs that's no no not that it's just like you would not want unemployment not going down if you're an investor because then inflation would be going up and then you're screwed so you had to call it happy Call It Whatever you you wanted to see unemployment go up so that it growth would slow inflation would come down we would get closer to our rate cut well that happened and we had a big rally but now it is completely going the opposite right bad news is just becoming bad news it's not becoming good news anymore yeah that that whole notion that bad news is good news was ridiculous bad news it wasn't ridiculous it was it was realid how was that ridiculous it was real you wanted unemployment to go lower to 2% when we were at 3.5 inflation would have shot up like crazy not if you actually have a business environment that's Pro business and allows competition because then you'll get price stability I would rather more people be working and more people spending money and the economy be better for small businesses Chris your thoughts on this bad news good news thing yeah I wasn't a big fan of it but I I understood it I mean that's what you have to do in the market like you have to take the morality sometimes you know pull some of it out and say look right now we have a overheated labor market where every you know everyone can get a job and demand really high wages just to just to work you know a simple simple position so you feel for them because you're like yeah I want everyone to have a great job but in reality not everyone can have the greatest job in the planet that pays you know a great wage some people end up having to work in a menial job with a menial wage so that the rest of us can afford to have a higher standard of living I mean that's just that's just how things are I mean that's you know what I just realized I I I sound like an [ __ ] really like oh that's what I'm saying like that's the whole point of this whole thing has been so toxic you have to sound like an [ __ ] if you're an investor right well I mean as a person it's like yeah I want my cheap latte I my cheap food you know like I want someone to have a minimum wage job you know below survivability so that I can have a discount at the you know at that's what robots are supposed to fix hopefully you know I don't know man I I think the economy works the way it works the free market tends to do what it's supposed to do sometimes the FED comes in and plays God and that kind of like disrupts things but then I don't know man this is one of those times where I do feel like now Bizarro world has kind of just flipped over the last four 48 hours and now good news is actually good news and bad news is actually bad news again oh the FED cut on Wednesday it wouldn't have mattered because it wouldn't have changed the unemployment print like they really needed to cut in the freaking spring well the thing is like one of the things and this is something I I mentioned Steve before you got here have you been checking labor for labor force participation I have you know it still hasn't gone back to can you bring up my screen it still hasn't gone back up to number one it's not back to historical levels like we had like during the 19 uh 1990s but remember that was also when we had a younger uh younger working population as well right now with so many baby boomers I don't think that we'll ever get back to that that 67 uh you know almost 68% um labor force right now we're at 62 we're not even we're probably still maybe like about five like five like 500 not 550 basis points away from normalization um prior to that mean 62% of people have a job is that what that means that means 62% of the people in the country are are actively working right now okay or they we do have more retirees than ever now though yeah yeah so we have a lot of retirees right now and the thing is people are not having as many kids either so that's a that's a pretty pretty good setup for a demographic ISS issue and the thing is like right now the only thing that's keeping our population above uh replacement is just this immigration and even immigration to a certain degree is is negatively impacting um impacting us because remember when im when there is a level of immigration that that does help but then there's also a level of immigration that all it really does is add to the National um national uh debt because what you're essentially doing is you're subsidizing ing a lot of people coming in and if they're not working you got a problem you know so and also remember they're they're competing for lower wage jobs they're not competing against a higher wage jobs so yes immigration is good but usually High skilled labor is the one that you want a lot more of because the total output that you're going to get from someone who has like a PhD already in another country they come here and they invent you know the next Google you're going to get tremendous more productivity out of that person versus someone that comes in and you know may end up having to subsist on government services for a period of time before they can really like get acclimated to um to the to the country and then be like a productive member to the to the tax base well and going back into stocks for a second another reason why diversification is important is because of exactly what happened today I mean I know Chris has been talking about going more into reats and stuff look at realy income today I've been screaming realy income for a while it's up almost 2% today well that's just because the markets going to Value that's all 12 and a half percent over the past month I mean big Tech is not the Endor be and while there's a tremendous amount of earnings growth there and I do think that there are good value plays there over time it's important to look at other areas of the market too okay like today easy to stomach Chris go ahead okay never mind um you're muted Chris if you don't know yeah yeah no um yeah I'm I'm in agreement with Steve I think there's so many opportunities um if you're willing to look for them um especially in fixed hard assets that tend to have a lot of debt on the balance sheet and because they have a lot of debt on the balance sheet they got sold off you look at a lot of these people remember like literally maybe I think nine months ago everyone was screaming at the top of their lungs all the regional banks are going to go out of business because the commercial markets they're not going to be able to refinance all their debt now guess what with rate Cuts incoming all of these commercial rates they're getting benefits from two things people are going back to the office working back in the office again leasing rates are going back up and at the same time you've got rate Cuts incoming means that one leasing rates are getting higher vacancy rates are going down people the landlords aka the REITs are going to be able to get higher values from customers looking for office space and at the same time they're going to get that that overhang of the ability to refinance at a at a at well not the ability but basically the ability to refinance at a favorable rate is gonna is going to go up that's why you're seeing a lot of great companies like SL green they've been outperforming even the even the um Tech sector because a lot of people they just wrote these things off they wrote These businesses off thinking oh who's going to go back to the office again and me and Steve we we're in New York City we see all these buildings getting packed up again you know and the big thing that people seem to forget is just because you don't see people back at the office doesn't mean that the space isn't leased and the checks aren't coming in yep so let me ask two more questions this one question is rate Cuts in general aren't bullish it means things are weakening but we still feel there is an opportunity for the market to benefit from the rate cut even if the broader economy doesn't benefit is that correct well it depends on your time frame right how long do you think most recessions last the longest recession that we ever had was the great financial crisis and the all the all the Fallout from that which was I think like what a year and some change yeah all the other all the other recessions are usually what six to maybe like 10 months yeah barely any that lasts Beyond one year so if you think about it if we enter a recession in the latter half of the let's say the officially declared in the third quarter or fourth quarter of 2024 by 2026 we're we're back in we're back in business again you know but but but my point is like the like uh like Nvidia right now let's say Nvidia is $100 the FED Cuts rates do you think there's a bounce where Nvidia goes to like 130 again right before it really Takes a Tumble when we get to recession because the market is like happy we got a rate cut or is the rate cut just so bearish for the market and for the actual economy get I'll let Steve answer that one I I don't think a ray cut matters for NVIDIA at all like I said before the companies that are spending with Nvidia are not living in R Cut Rate cut is more important for the broad market for companies that are looking to refinance their debt that have a lot of near-term maturities and also companies that are looking to expand because when they tap the debt Mark markets or issue new bonds they come with a lower coupon lower carrying costs and then that money funnels up all the bigger companies so Ray cut is bullish for the market but not for those reasons okay final question uh thank you everybody for being here and sticking with us today hopefully gave you a little bit of value as we were navigating all this um Tom Lee just blocked meet Kevin on Twitter so my question here is what do we think of Mr Tom Lee if iwm turns out to be one of the worst calls he's made that's I don't think he made a worst call okay let's let's take let let's take a step back okay I think structurally and technically he made the right call in saying that there needs to be some broadening out of this rally where people are actually moving some money from the big Tech side over to some of the smaller smaller um smaller components among the among the um among the the market so I think Tomley is absolutely right it's been two what maybe like three days since he's really come out and said like oh iwm is uh uh is where the opportunities are and I firmly believe that he's absolutely right if you think about it the rate Cuts benefit the small caps and the midcaps more than the large caps the large caps they don't have debt they don't have they don't have a ton of uh leverage that they're playing with nor do their customers operate under under the guise of a lot of Leverage so I don't think it really benefits them but on the other hand iwm most of these small caps they have a lot of debt on their balance sheets you know so if you think about it if you are able to lower the interest rates for them that means that now all of a sudden that debt to equity ends up getting flipped completely and now the equity is worth more but if we're in recession those small caps still get destroyed well it depends on which small caps you're talking about so just the index the index itself like at the end of the day he said the index would go to 300 well that's well here's the thing when it comes to the small caps you have to be very selective because when you think about it their ability to their ability to grow their um grow their revenue and grow their um market cap is a lot more likely than it is on the mega cap and the large cap side because it's just requ it's just when you're a small Nimble company you can move around in the markets much much easier if you're looking at it on an aggregated basis I totally agree I think there are definitely a lot of shitty companies within the the Russell but there are also a lot of great companies in the Russell that are trading at single digit pees with forward PE with forward uh pees that are even lower than that so I think this is where especially if you're going to delve into the Russell I wouldn't necessarily just say oh buy the aw uh um iwm I'd say do your homework do your due diligence and find those companies where there's real value that are going to benefit from rate Cuts Steve your thoughts on small caps rate Cuts normally favor small caps because a larger company such as alphabet per se is I have the balance sheet open company with 100 billion in cash and 13 billion in long-term debt doesn't necessarily care about Ray cuts from a carrying cost but small caps when you have lower rates the carrying costs on their debts Decline and the lending environment becomes less restrictive which allows them to expand so great I think Tom Lee made the right call and if you look at iwm is it that's the market cap um yeah up on the on the month I mean it's down over the past five days six and a half percent but it's still up over 3% on the month and when you start getting into rate cuts and it becomes an easier operating environment I think that that can rally mean I don't think it was a bad call at all and by the way what did beat Kevin say for Tom Lee to block him because Kevin might have antagonized them otherwise it wouldn't have done that oh he definitely antagonized them I mean he definitely he definitely did that um I'm not sure what exactly he said but tomy's obviously pissed for a reason to block him he doesn't block anyone um but my argument here is just I agree with you Chris I I think I think small caps were the right move the questions like do they go up 40% like he said I mean he made a very tactical argument he said after fomc markets rally 5% led by small caps I I'm I'm I'm on the Tom Le Camp I'm in the Tom Le Camp the only thing that I'll say about this whole thing is that there are going to be small caps that have a lot more benefit from the rate Cuts than some of the other ones like here's the thing biotech if you're a biotech company rates are not going to help you like if you're a small Tech if you're a small biotech company that's you know just trying to research things rate cuts are not going to make that big of a difference maybe if you're trying to issue some debt it'll help you out a little bit but I think more importantly you're going to see a lot of great companies that have a strong business model but have been basically cut down primarily because of the high high cost of capital they're going to do well and I think they are going to do so well that you will get a structurally higher move on the iwm will it be 40% I don't know I don't I personally don't have that in my model I think it's probably going to be about 20% higher from here but I still think in in directionality standpoint Tom Le is absolutely right that is where you want to be you want to start looking for Value in small and midcaps I agree and the Regionals might help with that uh even though they're down after they had a pretty good run well you got big bull Theses for regionals in about two months because the number one fee gets take fear gets taken off the table yep yep you don't have you if the FED actually does cut which they should it should mitigate the risk of REITs and private Equity that have real estate on the books that were in potentially a shaky situation that doesn't become a big threat and you don't have the threat of them handing the keys back over to the lenders and the lenders not being equipped to operate a property and having to sell for pennies on the dollar and take huge losses that gets alleviated and I think the Market's higher look this time next in I don't invest for today tomorrow or next month you know I am not a trador but when I look at the setup this time next year I think we're higher than where we are today and I think there's a lot of good opportunities in there if you have a long-term mentality one last question for you Chris and then uh Chris you can leave I just want to ask Steve about Intel um because 2022 happened and we went down basically 35% of the NASDAQ and that was like a year ago do you think that happens again so quickly like Amazon goes back to 80 so quickly right that crazy draw down we had has it ever ABS not I mean absolutely not because I mean Amazon look at the amount of free cash flow Amazon is generating right now like all of these companies are generating so much money that that's that's not gonna happen one of the problems that we had with 2021 is that the General market there was so much overvaluation like I'm talking about overvaluation to theth level especially because of all the freaking spacks remember like all these spacks had come out at the time and then also at the same time just to keep up all of these big cap these Mega cap companies they were hiring like there was no tomorrow we started to see those videos like Day in the Life Google blah blah blah you're not seeing that right now you're not seeing these companies loading themselves up with a ton of uh a ton of like people and Personnel just to keep up with the Joneses I mean they're a lot more efficient they're generating a lot more cash they're able to kind of redeploy that cash into buying back shares so I don't think we going to get a repeat of uh of that again I do think that a pullback is very healthy for the markets um in the short term it just brings a lot of opportunity for people who have missed out on the mega cap trade to get back in because I think at some point these companies are not going anywhere Amazon's not going anywhere Google's not going Microsoft's not going anywhere this is this is a perfect time to kind of buy up a lot of these companies for the long term you know where you're getting a decent valuation like Google right now is trading at a fair market value with a PE of about I think 24 with a forward PE of about maybe 19 which is good because structurally they're they've traded around 23 24 which means on a forward basis they're actually under it's 20 21 and a half this year's earnings 16 and a half 2026 well there you go which is kind of [ __ ] if you think about it that means that there's tons of upside for Google right now you know yes that is true that is true all right Chris I think we all appreciate you man Chris's Twitter I'll put in the chat Steve stay on for just a bit I want to hear about Intel uh but thank you Gris for uh being here with us I think I'll stay on I want to hear I want to hear Intel thesis okay so Steve let me set it up for you um TJ and I bought 2500 shares of Intel at 30 bucks like a month ago selling covered calls on it TJ comes on the show this morning and he says admit I made a decision and I'm like what the heck is this decision ision he buys another 7,500 shares of Intel at like 24 until at 21 uh I'm okay with having a bit of a loss on 2500 shares and navigating that he wants to make this position not only 10,000 shares he wants to make it 20,000 shares so here's my question coming from that perspective we didn't make any more moves because I was like dude I have no [ __ ] clue if intel is like the one we want to go long on on this like historic dip worse since 1982 would you if you had the capital buy 20,000 shares of Intel and go long I don't know if I'd be buying well it depends I mean how it doesn't just matter the capital it matters what the portfolio looks like I forget the portfolio let's say the money's there let's just say this he wants this to be a staple of the portfolio at $20 let's say the average would go to like 23 if you buy another 10,000 shares um what is the bull like why did you buy Intel today why is this and if you had the capital would you buy 10,000 shares here because you bought the dip if you had a 200 Grand sitting around would you dump it into Intel I don't hate the IDE more Intel today I'm G to show you something um so when I this is what I look at before I do anything and look at the numbers I look at the market share for all CPUs because Intel is not really in the GPU game okay AMD has been gaining ground but Intel is still over 60% of the CPU Market there's two main things that have this setup for inel the first thing is you have in October 2025 Windows 10 computers will not be used on Enterprise level anymore and on a lot of individuals who understand what the upgrade cycle means they're going to stop using Windows 10 computers because there's no more security updates there's no more Microsoft setting it's the same way that they did with Windows 7 so I have a computer that I'm using I bought a pretty high-end computer seven years ago or so and it has an i76700k chip in it it cannot be upgraded I will be forced to get another computer even though I have other computers that Windows 11 my desktop is not and that's what I write my articles on and I will be getting enough you have a lot of people that are going to upgrade for that reason you then have the next iteration of chips when they eventually come out I think they're probably two to three years off that you'll really start seeing some AI chips that can do things that the previous chips don't do and I think for some people you'll get an upgrade cycle on that the windows upgrade cycle I think is going to be big and I think it's going to last a little bit of time and when I look at Intel I look at a company that's companies that are in the x86 space and unless the x86 chip becomes null and void and that's not what computers laptops and desktops are based on then my investment the thesis gets blown out of the water but if x86 is still around and if that architecture is still what servers are based on Intel is still the dominant player and their Foundry business they look they picked the fight not just Nvidia and AMD but with t Taiwan semiconductor and Global foundies and eventually that's going to pay off because they're going to mure the foundaries they're going to be making ships for themselves and their competitors and they're going to grow that into a robust business do do I see a world where Intel goes away in five years no I don't and I could be wrong but Intel at this valuation I'll buy it all day long why why this valuation why is it cheap here I mean is back to where they once were and what's their market cap right now 90 billion 50 billion today America Nvidia should just buy them today is what they should do Nvidia should just buy them but no in all seriousness this is a company that when you look at the financials was generating tens of billions of dollars in profitability in 2018 2019 2020 they can get back there this is a turnaround story and if you think the turnaround can work I think it's a very good value proposition because you could possibly get a two or three X on this over the next couple of years what do you think about suspending the dividend great move why and that's somebody that loves dividends because Intel needs the cash right now to build out their operations and fight a fight down the road they can always bring back the dividend down the road that they don't have cash flow right now to pay a dividend to their shareholders their number one thing should be getting lean pivoting the business and focusing on what they're good at and quite honestly they don't really even need to adverti that much because they're Intel and I know that sounds silly but most people that are Intel users I'll never buy an AMD P set so that's my question why does an AMD eat Intel's lunch over the next like like apple made their own chip they stopped using Intel right why doesn't something like that continue well huler Packard and de would be the only ones that you could even worry about that for or Lenova right but they haven't so far and I don't know if they're in a position to make their own chips The Cutting of 25,000 employees you also think that's a good move me I hate hearing things like that because I really hate when people get laid off yeah so it depends if it's because that they over hired and there's too much middle management or whatever it is that's one thing I need to it I I don't really like hearing about layoffs while they are necessary in a lot of businesses for different reasons you know I rather look at how they plan on expanding revenue and expanding profitability and I think that there's a road map to do it in this and I think people are underestimating how big The Foundry business can be in the future so that's why I'm investing in Intel because I think you know 2026 2027 2028 this is a company that's a couple hundred B market cap and the reason they're going after TSM is that because they want growth or because geopolitically they've gotten a mandate from the United States to do something like well it's a number of reasons but at the end of the day it vertically integrates them they're no longer dependent on another company for their own product they now have they're still buying from TSM right now Intel buys from TSM oh TSM and I think uh Chris what is it Texas Instruments are there Fabs for chips foundaries right foundaries is one of them producing a lot of I think they're making a mistake going into Foundry business I mean if you look at AMD AMD when Luc Lisa Su came in that's the first thing that she did she separated Glo like The Foundry business and the design business the main problems that Intel is running into is that number one a lot of com a lot of people are moving off of x86 and the people that are remaining on x86 are gravitating towards AMD which has you know basically for the last few years taken a ton of a ton of market share from Intel how they reverse that I don't know um but I personally am not overly confident in Intel's ability to turn it around as of right now maybe that changes in the future but as far as I can tell a lot of people are just you know they're they're either switching to arm and right now Microsoft is also coming up with another line of laptops that are arm-based laptops you know so yeah so overall Steve you are bullish that Pat G Ginger can uh get the found your business to become profitable and you think this is a 23x over the next four or five years once they actually manufacture their own chips with Foundry yeah I mean I think this is a company that can definitely get back to where they were I mean that's why I'm investing in it I just don't see a day where Intel is not relevant to CPU space a lot of people hated IBM for a lot of reasons for a long time that went from 115 back up to 180 185 you know Intel's been a hated company for quite some time but if you look at the chart it quite interesting over the past 10 years can you bring it up a the past five years we peaked at 63 in 2021 and you dropped down to 25 and then rebounded back up to around 48 or so around 50 yeah list listen I'm G I'm going to say something and and I hope I'm an American I just want everyone to remember this okay I'm an American I love this country and you served in the military so thank and I served in the military so I'm gonna have to say this one of the tragedies that people don't talk about and this is something Morris Chang put out there very like a long time ago he if you want good advice on The Foundry business you go to Morris Chang okay Morris Chang is the founder of tsmc he said the cost and productivity of the American worker is not anywhere close to what you're going to get from a worker um in Taiwan and so if you want to compete against a Taiwanese worker Americans we don't have the work ethic we we don't have the amount of talent pool that we need to be in this industry and I think Intel is setting themselves up for failure yes it would be nice to have a Foundry business in the United States but there are just certain industries that have other people do way better than us and they've outcompeted us and which is why they've actually won over won the business overall all right so I think right now with Intel even going to Foundry business unless they adopt some kind of miraculous change and they find workers that you know are willing to like sacrifice their life to making sure that the output quality of semi conductors is really high like the Taiwanese do Intel is setting themselves up for failure yeah but how much of it is going to be robotics over the next couple years rather than human interaction with these chips oh like Optimist and I'm not saying just Optimist I'm just saying like how much of the automated where the narrative and I'm not disagreeing I agree that there has been better output from overseas Fabs and that's why the business has been there but at some point you got to think that robotics is going to even the playing field in that business the demand from The Foundry business that's not going anywhere right like whether it's Intel or TSM that's last going it's gonna go up more and more things have chips and so so what exactly do you produce from The Foundry business like it's not just chips right or that's it yeah well here's The Foundry business first of all it's an ecosystem okay so it's not as simple as oh you send them to designs and they make the chip for you and they send it back to you like no it's you have like if you go to Japan Japan does the best when it comes to the the what are they called the the giant um ingots of um of uh of silicon right and then they end up slicing them up so you need to have certain level of yield that comes from that so the Japanese have really mastered the art of uh of of producing that the Taiwanese they've done an amazing job of getting the most amount of yield on a wafer possible and then also so if you look at the lithography that was the other thing that Intel missed out on with this euv all these euvs and all the technical expertise that comes along with that a lot of that stuff a lot of engineers in Taiwan they know all this stuff they work their ass off to get all the details that they need to get to the point where their yields are super high it's not to say that just because you buy a machine from asml that you're going to get a good yield no you need to know a lot of things and it's it's more artart than science and the thing is a lot of it comes down to just a lot of experience so I think the Taiwanese they have a huge leg up when it comes to The Foundry business so we are in extreme fear folks we haven't been here since guess what October 2023 so it's been a while but now we're is this real that JP Morgan is forecasting a 1% rate cup they're expecting 50 in September 50 in November dude the analyst dude I looked at the Amazon uh downgrades today like last week 250 this week 230 it's like it's just insane bro these [ __ ] they throw out anything and because they work at Bank of America like is taken seriously it's as serious as you or me talking about it dude like it's just like it is it is quite hilarious how they put this stuff out Insanity yet once again I'm going to remind Steve Steve looked at nvidia's forward earnings and said oh look it's cheap based on forward earnings Yeah by some no-name [ __ ] who came up with a freaking Target I think all these people like especially okay I have to say this and I know Dan Ives has been on your channel uh and I won't I won't go after him like too hard okay we know you don't like him we already know I don't I don't I don't not like him okay I mean my biggest problem with Dan IES is that he comes to a conclusion and then works his way backwards that that's what I don't like about the guy where it's like explain what what do you mean by that what do you mean by that so right now if I set a price target of 150 and then like okay yeah I think we can get to 150 and now you're working Your Way backwards looking for every justification possible to get to that 150 Target that's what Dan Ives tends to do in my opinion where he's very hyperbolic like even the clothes that he wears is very like show are you making fun of his clothes right now are dude wor a stupid like I'm telling you he's like the most he's like the weirdest guy I love him dude I love him I like he's been right for for for a while right I don't like his drip that's true I really don't like his drip for someone who Who's ah whatever I'll stay I'll stay Steve how do you feel about Dan ives's 900m party thesis I think it's 7 PM not 900 PM we haven't even driven there I hate Steve too by the way so know both tan Ives and Steve are on my list you know the difference is that I actually like a lot of other things besides big Tech that's true you Steve owns everything like every time I'm like yo do you own this he's like yeah like how the [ __ ] do you own every name in the market like this is some of my some of my best plays have actually come from Steve a lot of people are in there like oh Chris is talking about Hershey's you know who called me about Hershey's Steve he called me up he was like hey Chris I have an idea for you I'm like okay what's up Steve shoot no he always starts that whenever he pick up he's like so I have an idea for you I'm like what what is it I mean sometimes he comes up with the craziest things I just like n Steve you're good man if you want to buy it you go right ahead but I think um but he called Verizon absolutely correctly he called s green absolutely correctly and he even called uh Hershey's absolutely correctly so it's not it's not just oh Chris is the guy I I tend to be like the post like the the cheerleader for a lot of these plays but believe it or not underlying all of that stuff is a lot of the due diligence that Steve does and then I just tend to layer on my own opinion on top of it and say you know what and that's what that's what building a great Community is all about right AIT where you get to discuss and you get to talk about certain ideas that you normally would never get to do and the other good thing is that someone else can take a look at a stock yes and look at it from a different angle that you may not be looking at and that gives you a lot more um what's the word uh like confidence and yeah and you can be a little bit objective it's I think who was it was it Peter Lynch who said it that um the best way to invest is to do it based on a consensus where if you get 10 people in a room together and if you can convince all 10 people to agree on a stock it's probably going to be like a good one and if you can't get all 10 to be in agreement with you it's probably going to be a shitty shitty situation to be in you know so I think right now the best thing you could do is look for the best investors build a circle around them and then have discuss discuss ideas and say look I think this is a good idea I think this is a bad idea right now I'm in contention with Steve regarding Intel right so I think Intel isn't going to do that well Steve saying Intel is going to do well so it's like a 50-50 who's gon to be right who's gonna be wrong but you should start to buy [ __ ] when me and Steve both agree on something you know so yeah and I would go back to I don't get everything right like I don't want anybody to think I have a crystal ball I just I'm a nerd and I do a lot of due diligence and something like Intel it could absolutely go down to like 14 or 15 like that could absolutely happen and I've said this so many times and Adit makes fun of me every time I say it so I'm GNA give you a segue I call tops and bottoms and it always makes fun of me when I say that but I I can't call when a stock is GNA bottom and I can't call when it's going to pee but when I look at certain things in tells something that I think is worth the risk for me here probably not worth it for anybody else except for TJ but um it's worth it for me here and I have the time where I can stay in it for a couple of years and if I take a loss on it's not going to really because I'm not going crazy with it but there are some plays out there that I really still like and I think energy is in a sweet spot I think utilities is in a sweet spot and I think there's some really interesting closed in funds that have some really good fund managers that utilize a little bit of Leverage to write call options on utilities that are gonna do well I mean do you do you agree with Chris on Carnival on the cruises I hate cruise lines I don't have an opinion on why do you not like going on cruises is that why I'll you will never get me on a cruise so that's what so it's not about research it's about like subjective don't it's just not something that interests me I don't want to look at it I just it could be a phenomenal investment there look man you got the third world you're paying them below minimum wage you're charging these Americans high prices to get on a ship and you're charging dude it is the perfect business model do you know how much they pay in taxes barely anything barely anything I'm telling interesting I'd rather be in a boring real estate company like realy income no join me come join me on the boats let's end on this last question Alexander says wait what do you all agree on so I can go all in on this stock well that all three of us no don't go all in on anything don't go yeah not Financial advice whatever all three of us all three of us agree on one stock do you guys know what it is I think weer age on more than one St NOP Chris it's below 24 25 right I don't care no and by the way Dan IES you that son of a he's the one like I could not dude I couldn't stomach being in my paler put only you would have been right dude you would have been so right oh dud there's this guy long duck long or whatever right this dude had I me 500 I know he had 200 Grand of puts I want to see his I want to see his portfolio he must be up like he sold all of them with a $5,000 gain before me but he sold it yeah because the thing is dude when you're in a short he was scared right he was scared bro it's hard it's hard being in a short position especially with all these [ __ ] analysts coming out and giving like $30 price targets and [ __ ] and I'm like what the [ __ ] am I doing here man dude if you held it oh you would have got to talk so much [ __ ] it would have been fun I I wake up in the morning I W dude I there's so many nights I couldn't sleep because these guys man I'd wake up in the morning it's like pal and teer been upgraded I'm like based on what based on what and then you got [ __ ] elano over here taking people to steak dinners and [ __ ] and I'm like bro I am so [ __ ] if some whale gets gets a great meal out of this whole experience and buys like a million shares and then I'm [ __ ] so I'm like you know what screw this I don't want to deal with the the the [ __ ] nonsense with that so two people ruined my paler short one was Dan IES and his stupid upgrades that made all these people buy in and two elano who basically has been just going around feeding people and like cheering up all this [ __ ] demand and and what's his name umad the other guy uh Chad Chad has been doing great presentations and [ __ ] in AIP so I'm like bro do I really want to compete against these guys I can't compete against well dude on on valuation you were still technically correct and like you know whatever dude whatever I'm okay I I've gotten over it um okay so now Buy in now it's below 25 now it's time to buy in no I'm good man I'm good I just I told you yesterday I don't have the conviction I I'm I'm more I have more conviction in the cruise lines which are sinking right now rather than paler which is actually holding up so so I've been known to catch fight for two I'm getting really interested in crowd strike this goes below 200 I'm gonna get very interested Chris I'm gonna stay away until the pr changes man there's just too much PR headline risk oh and and that's why I'm getting very interested because look over the next three months if we get 180 that area that may be a interesting time to take a long position and wait for the pr to turn around would you rather have Intel or crowdstrike Steve at these prices to me Intel is uh more of a not as hard for me to get my brain around because I don't think that we know how impactful this is going to be for crowd strike and it could it could still get pretty bad like that would be a real big Gam if I take a position in it but it's warming up to me and I told you when when you told me it at like 260 I was like I think it's still going to go down and now it's starting to get in but I hated the valuation I told you that but look if they don't really lose customers and if they come out of this you know not unscathed but if they come out of this okay in the next six months or so next year maybe it goes back to 350 maybe it goes back to 325 I mean right now at 217 if it keeps going lower it's interesting it's interesting below 200 I agree it's very interesting it's interesting I mean I think the whole indust at this point but my fear is that a Microsoft or an alphabet they're just G to or even in apple not saying that Apple would but some of these large scale companies with the operating systems just decide to do it on their own right all right I think that that's it thank you everybody for being here you streaming for uh it's been four hours 23 minutes oh Chris you have you seen Kinder Morgan see Away Steve Steve owns Kinder Morgan too probably that's of course I do yeah Kinder Morgan is a great company dude it's an MLP B it's Recession Proof man everyone's going to use natural gas you I don't think any Upstream operations right CR no no no Upstream so Chris and I were having a conversation a couple months ago about the biggest natural gas pipeline companies because of data centers Kinder Morgan is I think the number two behind energy transfer and I mean they're up 17 year they just raised the dividend again you got five and a half percent yields I think pipelines are very undervalued yeah look at this Summit here oh wow it's up 20% yeah and the thing is like they have almost a 6% dividend PE is about eight so they've got ton of room for um for growth ahead and what's going to happen is a lot of people right now they're happy getting their five and a quarter from their money market funds what do you think happens when the money market funds are yielding barely anything again you know they go into pipes and they go into real estate that's right and especially old retirees who need fixed income coming in on a semi-regular basis they're going to be buying companies like Verizon they're going to be buying companies like Kinder Morgan you know um ET is another one so a ton of these companies like even um CCI which is another one like crown castle you know um cell phone towers yeah this is not going away and not to mention like companies like this have escalators built into their um into their um Revenue so basically what happens is right now it's not only that you're renting a cell phone tower but what happens is over time your rent goes up so even though right now you may only be getting like a 6% yield the next year they can raise that a little bit higher the year after that raise a little higher and eventually if you look at it on a on a on a let me just show you guys what I mean real quick sorry sorry on I know no no no you're good I'm I'm I'm fine it's up to you so if you look at historically um something like CCI right look at this all right so you see this all the way from 20 like 2000 you could have bought this at $1 and right now this thing is trading at like4 14 and the entire time you would have been getting dividends which grow every single year so if you look at um CCI [Music] dividend they usually grow their dividends every uh every year about 6% so look at this these are all the dividends that they've been paying every single quarter going going back so imagine right now in the year 2000 you bought a th000 shares of CCI right and then they started pay getting dividends in 2014 and then right now in 2018 it was like about a dollar that means that you're getting 100% return on that initial Capital that you might have put in you know so a lot of dividend companies a lot of people what they do is they look at the current yield and they all say oh look I want to buy this company because of this yield what they what they don't factor in is the yield growth that tends to tends to happen with these companies so you can see here CCI for the last however many years has been growing their dividend every single year every single year and to the point right now where their dividend is almost like a dollar uh um uh dollar 56 per share and the big with these companies is their infrastructure is not replaceable Y and I'm fine making a definitive statement like that you can't replace cci's infrastructure you can't replace Kinder Morgan's infrastructure it's just it's basically impossible unless it's American Tower Corporation or an energy transfer and they just basically get all the permits and build it but even then it's next to Impossible that's what's great about these types of compan hard assets that Chris spoke about before it's pipeline companies regulation Capital intensive zoning land expertise it it's a nightmare that's why there is no new pipeline companies it's the same ones embridge Enterprise Products Partners Kinder Morgan energy transfer one Oak and Marathon I mean those are really the only big pip they have solid modes dude like really solid just can't be penetrated you know so and they don't have to worry about the pr with all the fracking or Upstream stuff that axon and Chevron have to deal with they're just transporting the stuff after it's drilled yep and they're also um they don't have to worry about price fluctuation on the underlying commodity either no take or pay contracts beautiful thing yep all right so let's end it off on one final question real quick uh overreaction healthy correction or recession out of those three where do you guys land overreaction it's definitely an overreaction but we could be heading into a recession yeah Steve has to be the most political of political people political statement do no like take a stance do you think we head into a bad recession or you think this is overreaction we bounce back I don't think that we can tell if we're gonna head into a better mean you don't take a stance this why you own 50 stocks like because I don't know well there's nothing wrong with liking I own more than 50 individual companies I agree I think it's an overreaction as well I think we bounce back it could be a recession but I I don't think this year we see that maybe but I think it's unlikely um given the labor data that we we got today and that labor force participation Chris I've never seen that before that's a hell of a point like we're not firing people we're just not hiring them as quickly which is a big difference and so and more people are getting back into the labor market I mean one of the reasons why we had such a anemic return back to the office is because we had so much covid stimulus and the stimulus took a long time to work its way out the system and then even towards the end you still had a lot of people like there are still programs out there that are supporting certain covid Co era restrictions you know so when you take those things away what ends up happening people have to get back to work and when they have to get back to work they have to compete against other workers and that's what's going to cause wages to kind of normalize so I think AI itself is very deflationary so we could get back in Believe It or Not There is a scenario and maybe Steve maybe you you might be able to to dissect this we could be eventually heading back to a zero r environment again I mean we may have to at some point yeah and maybe not zero rate but maybe half a percent I mean we really may have to at some point I think look you guys know I don't like getting political things I like to keep it about investing in the numbers but whether you like him or not whether you would have voted for him or not Andrew Yang was one of the only people if not the only person that has been looking 20 30 40 years down the road and really bringing to light a lot of hardships that are going to come with the advancements of technology and I think that we have to really start looking at some of those things because there's a lot of problems that technolog is going to one of the ways to combat that is going to be having a really inclusive borrowing Market to help generate business I I get worried about what a couple of decades is going to do when we look at AI robotics for me I look at Japan Japan is like a blueprint for what the us could end up going through with the demographic collapse happening post Baby Boomers um basically retiring and and leaving the workforce so if we have that low population and someone the guy in the chat says it right PK low population plus AI equals deflationary debt plus um potential dollar printing inflationary so it's kind of the battle of the two I think we're probably in the the the the the first one where there's just going to be a lot of um baby boers retiring and the national debt is so high that they're they really need dude they really need to figure out the national debt situation and one of the ways that they can solve the national debt issue is lowering bu Bitcoin huh buying Bitcoin well doesn't solve it me it's lower lower rates and then utilize that time to basically pay down some of that debt so that this way it's not as big of a vulnerability because right now the the interest payments alone should have been a reason why the FED started their rate cutting earlier rather than later this way they confidence per and look I I've always said this about them there should be a third mandate in addition to price stability in addition to maximum employment making sure that we are not pay paying a ridiculous amount of our tax dollars toward the interest on our debt and we have now exceeded $ 900 billion a year of our tax revenue going to service interest on our debt and we are almost spending as much as we do F budget quick question if you if you buy a money market fund and you're getting five and a half percent that's basically the government giving you that five and a half percent right well money market funds invest in debt instruments so yes so so your ta so technically our taxes are being used to pay tax taxes aren being used but you can look I guess you could theoretically look at it like that like technically that 900 billion some of it's coming back to people like it's going back to Google that has their money in treasury funds right the government's paying Google for that for the money well the government's paying Google if they're buying t- bills yeah which most of these balance sheets are loaded up with t bills short and medium-term T bills so yeah that is absolutely the right way of thinking about it it where you have a lot of companies that are hoarding cash they're actually getting money from the US government but then they're also paying some of it back in taxes so it's a weird weird dynamic that's happening the bigger thing is you're seeing this weird situation where the people who have money are doing extremely well and they're doing it safely like right now if you're a retire you're sitting on like you know let's say $2 million you're getting 5 a half% from the FED you're good like you're not taking any risk whatsoever and you're able to kind of like get a great return by just keeping your money in a cash-like position you know that's five years ago six years ago that was unheard of so then at that time you actually had to be in you know certain companies to get that kind of return like right now there's a lot of um institutional money that's sitting in treasuries and sitting in Money Market because they're getting such a good return that they're going to have to eventually deploy that Capital back into the market again and for zero risk like 5% on two million to do nothing is a pretty good deal right yeah well while the funny thing is you we got you everyone's got to listen to Scott Galloway I don't know if you guys have been listening to him yeah one of the things that the US we have right now is that every one of our systems is built to take care of all the rich not rich but take care of all the older people so right now the tangible benefits are going towards retirees and uh people who are about to retire and all the people who are younger in this new newer demographic they're getting squeezed on all sides like all the people like Baby Boomers and even certain Millennials they they own their own homes they have low interest rates it's this new generation of people the Gen Z's uh they're coming into the labor market right now and they're being squeezed on all sides so it kind of sucks but it is what it is real quick qu last qu last question a TMF what exactly is that and what trade have you made on that it's a triple leveraged fund that invests primarily in the long bond to long treasuries so what ends up happening is whatever the movement is in the in the um 20 year plus treasury market it does a 3X move against that so why is it up today because everyone's buying treasuries you know so when bond yields go down this thing goes up yeah so when you have a higher when you have a higher probability of a recession people are going to be flocking to safety right and when people flock to safety they're looking for like treasuries so why would they want to be in Risk assets instead they shift their money to things like treasuries where there's a fixed return but every time you buy it you're essentially kind of like competing away the the yield and so the yield goes down so right now if you look at the 10-year treasury why do you think the 10-year treasury right now is lower you know yeah oh okay that makes sense real quick El sorry I forgot your Super Chat $5 bot Nvidia 125 is now a good opportunity to buy or look elsewhere Chris would say no Steve would say yes we talked about that earlier but uh at 100 Steve likes it a lot if the basic analysis if you assume $5 EPS by 2025 which is it's asking for a lot but the street thinks it's possible then it's cheap it's trading 21 times if you assume $3 EPS or 250 EPS then it gets a little expensive at a 100 bucks but if you're more aggressive with your grow growth estimates then 1007 is relatively cheap all right this was fun this was awesome I think a lot of people appreciated uh Chris and Steve hopping on their Twitters are in the description in the chat I obviously really appreciate getting to talk to these guys uh and just get their Insight in value especially on a day like this where these guys have a lot more experience than me in the markets and they're able to bring a lot more value so hopefully you guys enjoyed Chris does have a patreon it's in the chat as well I think it's like 10 one thing someone at really quickly they ask and I I want to make sure I highlight this triple Leverage compy are never ever meant to be held long term they are always only directional moves that you're playing in the market for a very short-term move so if you think that the market is going to go is crashing being in TMF is good because you're going to be able to capture that move downward these companies directionally they tend to really underperform the market so I would not be in any leverage plays longterm as a hold like no you typically don't want to do that so all right thank you everybody this is uh this is it for today no Market close we will have uh pter weekly at 10 pm hour early and uh we'll preview pter going into Monday earnings all right thank you everyone have a good day see you tonight