Intro Intro
Calling someone a “system quarterback” is one of the best ways to
discount their achievements. It can work in just about every situation–technically speaking,
every quarterback lives within an offensive system or scheme–and until that guy is forced
to play on a different team with a different group of guys, it won’t ever be proven.
Brock Purdy might be our best current example of the “system QB” label. Last season, he
threw for a nearly 70% completion rate, over 4,000 yards, 31 touchdowns, and led the
league in passer rating. On paper, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
And yet, PFF ranked him as the 13th best player at the position, in a tier called
“the melting pot of starters.”
PFF knew it was a slightly hot take for the
quarterback that played in last year’s Super Bowl, starting off the blurb by saying they’re “fairly
comfortable” with where they placed him.
But I also get it. The Niners have been
loaded with talent the past couple years, and - this is just my bias - Purdy doesn’t
necessarily look like a top-of-the-line QB or have the biggest arm.
But there are aspects of his game that are undeniable, like his fantastic sense
of anticipation especially when throwing to the middle. Just check out this pass
against the Dallas Cowboys in week 5.
Before the snap, tight end Charlie Woerner’s
motion helps push the leverage of the linebackers away from where the pass is going. With Micah
Parsons on the edge likely to pass rush, and two DBs on the same side for the 2 receivers,
this means that either Leighton Vander Esch or Malik Hooker will need to cover McCaffrey’s
route coming out of the backfield.
We see Vander Esch have to declare where he’s
going because he’s already been pushed away from McCaffrey’s side, as the other backers vacate
the middle of the field. Simultaneously, Brandon Aiyuk and Ray-Ray McCloud run nice routes that
cross each other to trick Aiyuk’s matchup.
And then just check out when Purdy is throwing
this. The ball is coming out right as both Aiyuk and McCaffrey are making their breaks in opposite
directions. It’s a super confident pass that gives his receiver room to catch the ball and avoid
a big hit from the safety crashing down.
[WK 5 - 35:18]
Still, it can be easy to see this and write it off as his being in one of the
best situations in the league. Would he really be doing this if he was on a more mediocre team?
Is Brock Purdy really just a system quarterback?
Becoming relevant Becoming relevant (picture heavy?)
If there’s any testament to how good Purdy’s been in his first two years, it’s that his being the
last overall pick in the 2022 draft gets mentioned less and less when he’s brought up.
After his first start or two, I remember my dad texting me something along the lines of “You
seen this Brock guy? He’s Purdy good!” I said, “Very clever, dad,” and went on believing
it was a fun story but that it would all fall apart sooner or later.
But then he kept winning and winning all the way to the NFC Championship before getting
knocked out of the game with a torn UCL.
And in this most recent year, he
proved to all of us–and especially the Eagles–that his rookie year was no fluke.
Through the first 3 quarters of the season, he was receiving legitimate MVP buzz and was a favorite
to win the award after Week 15. Everything was going great for him until a big flock of
Ravens shit on his head on Christmas Day.
He gifted Baltimore 4 interceptions that night in
what would be the worst game of his career so far, as he watched Lamar Jackson go onto
secure the MVP vote from him.
Now, if you ask me, really only 1 of those
interceptions was totally his fault–and we’ll look closer at it a little later.
Still, Purdy was quickly shoved back from potentially receiving the “elite” label. And maybe
he really was just a “system quarterback.” An extremely high level system quarterback,
but a system quarterback nonetheless.
Just a system QB? Just a system QB?
You don’t need to go too deep to convince people he was in one of the
best quarterback situations in the league.
Running back Christian McCaffrey, fullback Kyle
Juszczyk, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams all received All Pro honors this
past season. That’s nearly an entire offense of All Stars. And even the guys who weren’t getting
formally recognized were still producing at a high level: whether it was Aiyuk who had his second
1,000 yard receiving season in a row, or Deebo Samuel who’s dynamism cannot be overstated.
In fact, there was a bit of a Deebo narrative that was going around later in the year, where
some wondered if he was really the spoon that stirred the drink. Purdy and the 49ers were 0-3
when Samuel played 15% or less of the offensive snaps last year and 12-1 with him.
And if you wanted to discount Purdy in a more nuanced but related way, you could
point to how great he was off Play Action last year. PFF graded him as the 3rd best
quarterback in the league off this play type, and his completion rate was 12.5% higher off these
passes–good for the second highest completion rate difference in the league. With 23% of his
dropbacks coming off of play action, you could argue that a good chunk of his numbers were
bolstered by San Fran’s top 5 running game.
Check out this play against the Buccaneers in
Week 11, where we can see how San Francisco leverages their good running game
for easy passes and tons of YAC.
Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is perhaps most known
for his zone-blocking run scheme. Simply put, zone-blocking refers to the linemen blocking
defenders who come into their assigned areas as opposed to having blocking matchups like
in a power scheme. One of the key indicators of zone-blocking is when all of the linemen
take a step in the same direction in unison as they move to plug up their areas.
We see that here. That first step, along with Purdy turning his back and the field position,
all help pull the Bucs defenders towards the line while Kittle sneaks out the side door. He finds
wide open space and Purdy can make the easy dump off and pick up 20 passing yards.
[WK 11 - 39:30]
And while I do think his numbers get a
little inflated by these types of plays, it’s also really difficult to win as consistently
as he and the 49ers have. Getting to an NFC Championship or Super Bowl is tough no matter
who you are and what the team looks like.
Former Niners receiver Emmanuel Sanders recently
shared a conversation he had with Deebo on why people are sleeping on Purdy as a top level
quarterback. He said, “Man, you should see him in the huddle. He comes in the huddle, he plays with
a certain confidence, he comes in, he believes, he makes other guys believe.”
Unfortunately, there’s no metric for “belief.” But let’s take a closer look at what Purdy does that
might make his team believe in him, as well as parts of his game that prevent him from being in
that top, top echelon of quarterbacks right now.
Film study Film Study
One thing you can’t escape in Purdy’s tape is just how much he loves
throwing the ball to the middle part of the field. If I was his wife, I’d be a little jealous.
Over 40% of his passes came in the short and intermediate middle parts of the field. And on a
good majority of these throws, Purdy displays an extremely high level of anticipation and rhythm.
It’s the most special thing about him.
Here’s an example against Tampa Bay
that looks somewhat similar to that play against Dallas I showed earlier.
Purdy will get this one to Samuel, who has linebacker Devin White matched
up on him. With Samuel’s quickness, everyone in the stadium knows this is gonna
be a tough cover for the backer.
White tries to keep with Samuel and uses
his body to try and leverage Samuel out of the middle of the field, but one quick move gets
him cutting across the linebacker’s face.
Again, Purdy throws this early, right as Samuel
is making his move, giving his receiver space to catch the ball and come down with it to
avoid the defenders pursuing him in the middle of the field.
[WK 11 - 6:19]
You see these throws from him constantly.
It got to the point where I almost got bored watching his film because over and over
again, he’d make this anticipatory pass to the middle for 10 to 20 yards.
But I think some of his reliance on this pass can be taken advantage of by
talented and savvy defenses.
He can be a bit robotic in his throws and has yet
to really learn how to use his eyes to manipulate defenses. Knowing where he typically wants to go
with the ball, DBs can watch his eyes and make breaks on passes for turnover opportunities.
Here’s that interception I referenced against the Ravens, which came on SF’s
first drive of the game.
The Ravens will play quarters coverage, meaning
their 4 DBs will be responsible for a quarter of the field, with 3 intermediate
defenders to protect the middle.
Purdy wants to get this ball to Samuel who is
running a rounded post into the middle of the end zone. He takes the snap and gives a glance
to the right side of the field and sees safety Kyle Hamilton take a step that way.
Because the cornerback starts to take the zig route from Juzyzcyk, I think Purdy is trusting
that Hamilton will be forced to move down and over to defend Kittle’s out route. Only, the Ravens
defenders pass off the receivers in their zones, and because Kittle’s route is shallow, Hamilton
suddenly becomes unconcerned with it.
Check out the moment he realizes this and then
gets his eyes on Purdy. He sees Purdy take his hand off the ball, so he locates the receiver
coming towards where he’s looking, and jumps in front of it for the clean pick.
[WK 16 - 4:54]
Every so often you’d catch Purdy forcing passes
to where they seemed to be schemed to go without necessarily considering what the defense was
doing. Right now, it feels like he’s using his eyes to identify stuff for himself rather than
also as a tool to keep passing lanes open.
I think this will be the next big step
he’ll need to take in his development to get into that next tier of quarterback.
The last point I wanted to make on Purdy was that I think he’s got a solid pocket presence.
He can navigate traffic nicely to get throws off, like he does here in the Super Bowl to get a deep
ball off to Samuel. While it falls incomplete, I thought it was a great example of how he can
make subtle movements to give himself time for options downfield to open up.
[SB - 16:07]
Along with that, he also seems to have a good
sense of when to take off and scramble for a couple yards. It’s a solid combo to have a
guy that can push the ball downfield with anticipation as well as pick up a few yards
with his legs when things aren’t there.
[WK 11 - 21:30]
I was a little concerned with how he seemed to step away from the
pressure as he passed when it engulfed him. I thought I’d see more times where this
affected his accuracy–and it might’ve just been the games I watched–but I rarely saw
it leading to an off-target pass.
[SB - 14:08]
Personally, I’d like to see him take this tendency out of his game to feel even better about
his consistency as a passer, but I also get that he’s protecting himself and making it work.
Putting money where their mouth is
The Niners seem to really like Purdy and
believe he is their guy to finally get over the hump and win a championship.
After next year, we may see just how much Conclusion they really value him since he’ll be
eligible for a contract extension. Do they view him as a fundamental part
of what makes the whole system go, or do they view him as a cog within it all? .
I think it’s essentially a done deal that Purdy gets extended, but he likely won’t be setting
the new record for quarterback contracts. Still, it’ll probably be nice to get compensation
that’s more in line with what he’s produced as opposed to the less than $1m he’s
getting paid per year right now.
Conclusion
Brock Purdy is really good.
He can make the throws, stay calm
in the pocket, and has been praised throughout his 2 years for his leadership
and ability to make guys “believe.”
But I don’t think it’s unfair to wonder how
good he might be on another team with lesser players and worse coaching. He isn’t
using his eyes at a high level, and he can force throws that aren’t there. And
while every quarterback gets some help from the run game and play action, I do think some of
those MVP caliber numbers were slightly inflated by San Francisco’s talent and scheme.
Still, “system quarterback” feels like a dig to him, just for the connotation it brings. I don’t
know if this is any better, but I at least feel better saying that Purdy can give a team a very
high floor but that he may not necessarily raise that team’s ceiling on his own.
Had he been in Desmond Ridder’s shoes in Atlanta last year, I think that team would have won the
NFC South. But had he been in Carolina, I think that team would’ve still come in last place.
But I also don’t think Purdy is a finished product. He’ll turn 25 in his 3rd NFL
season this year and it’s only the 2nd one where he’ll be the full-time starter
throughout the entire process.
So, yeah, Purdy might technically be propped
up by the Niners’ system and that ranking of 13th may be closer to the truth than a ranking
of, say, 5th. But that’s only for the right now. Keep an eye on Purdy this next season–he may
just surprise you with how good he can get.