This Week in Big Ten Football | Michigan's QB Battle | North Carolina vs. Minnesota | USC vs. LSU

[Music] [Music] oh [Music] [Music] can't sleep dreams got another B propy the great J you to serve I canot turn it all when you Falling Slowly St your balls so tired and lonely not up I'm not all right I losing my [Music] mind running out [Music] of I'm not all [Applause] right my mind [Music] a great L Rel same story on repeat to Pro to save the world to Pro to save yourself when you Falling Slowly it's not your BS TI and Lely and I up I'm not all right I my [Music] mind rning [Music] out I'm not right I'm losing my mind [Music] [Music] he [Music] [Music] they will try out to F to say the [Music] [Applause] world to to world oo [Music] o to to SA [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] come on Hardy don't Hur me no more I done my time as a prisoner in the middle of the night I'm a bleeding out for more come on listen listen I know I am probably one of the worst if not the worst content creators at planning things out and uh promoting things I will admit it is not a strong suit of mine but we are here last second kind of Split Second decision to uh to go live on the channel uh I've been honestly thinking about this for some time now and uh cuz last season for a while for those of you who maybe aren't Michigan fans you know I know I have a lot of Michigan fans that follow the channel I know I have a lot of you know Oregan fans out there and people just generally there's a lot of people that follow the channel that aren't you know Michigan fans and every week we do of course this week in Michigan football last season we also did this week in Big 10 football which is our way of reaching out to those of you who maybe aren't a Michigan fan like myself cuz of course of course there's plenty to talk about throughout the conference there are now 18 teams in said conference and uh and I wanted to have a space on the channel again this season for those of you who maybe are necessarily tuned in and dialed into the channel just for my Michigan football takes so trying to fit things into my schedule trying to fit things into my life because not going to lie we got a lot going on behind the scenes here I guess I could switch over to the camera now hi everybody how's it going I got a little Link in the chat by the way already up for the Discord if you want to join the Discord and call in I haven't even let anyone know in the Discord yet that we are live should probably do that for my Discord people there we go just a little reminder but um trying to fit things into like my schedule things are pretty hectic in my personal life right now not going to lie my wife and I have a toddler for those who don't know uh so we're going to try and do these once a week probably every Thursday during the season Thursdays are probably the best day for me in the afternoon so I hope it works out for some of you to come and watch and this is going to be how we're going to do this week in Big 10 football from now on because I one want to really connect with my audience here I want you guys to get the hit me up in the chat on these I see we already got some people Nick I see you hello to you as well good sir um and and two I want again I want something for people that aren't necessarily Michigan fans because I know I do this week in Michigan football it's a personal passion of mine to talk about my team once a week but we are a big 10 Channel we are I want to say open and we want to be more Equitable and welcoming to especially our West Coast Fans now joining in and things like that so I hope this is a space where no matter who you're a fan of from across the Big 10 we can get on here and all chat and talk college football which I am very excited for this season of course we got a lot to talk about 18 team conference things are wide open no more big 10 West no more Big 10 East four new teams it's just going to be who the two best teams in this conference really are at the end of the season for the Big 10 Championship which I think is a big deal of course teams like Iowa and Purdue have snuck into the Big 10 championship for the last couple of seasons and well that just wasn't necessarily perfectly H Equitable or Fair really in all honesty I think whoever lost to the Michigan Ohio State game or kind of that three horse race in the Big 10 East over the past few seasons between Ohio State Penn State and Michigan though two of those teams probably should have gotten in if we're being honest and fair but I die gr somebody pointed out in a video we're going to cuss here by the way we're going to cuss I'm a former construction worker it's just in my blood at this point uh somebody pointed out in a video a few weeks ago that I say I digress a lot I'm not going to lie it's kind of stuck with me but feel free to ask any questions you may have I see we already have a question from Daniel on if we have any info on the quarterback battle I'm not an Insider I'm not in the build I'm not a guy who is like a beat reporter or anything I'm just a fan with the channel but I am somebody who keeps my ear to the ground as much as possible and I really personally think it's going to be Alex orgy who ends up being named the starter uh if you watched this weekend Michigan football last night we talked about Chiron Moore in his press conference talking a little bit about the possibility of a two quarterback maybe not system but utilizing two quarterbacks and the funny thing is it's something Michigan has done for the past couple of years we just haven't really noticed or paid that much attention to it uh all the way back to 20121 Michigan cycled in JJ McCarthy at different points in different packages uh even in the Ohio State game and then uh of course the last couple of Seasons Alex orgy has come in in kind of a wildcat package here and there at some points in some big games but that's really the only update I I I I have or any info I have is seems like a decision hasn't been made but according to Sam web I guess this would be the most indepth kind of Insider information I can provide here I did watch the uh MGO blog Round Table this morning with Sam web and Sam Webb was talking about how he really feels that it's Alex orgy's job to lose at this point Davis Warren is pushing him but Alex orgy is still kind of in the lead there and I know we probably already got some Michigan fans in the chat here but I do want to talk about the Big 10 at large too so if you have questions especially about I'm really excited for this North Carolina Minnesota game tonight I think that's a very interesting game and it's one I'm going to be keeping my eye on because DPI let me just go to screen share here for you guys for a second let's go to the magical spreadsheet I have created for DPI I don't know if you guys can see it too well on the screen actually wonder if we can kind of zoom in a little bit here there we go if we go to my all 68 DPI these are all 68 power for teams including Notre Dame uh Minnesota actually came in on DPI you can see it right here at 28th just outside of the top 25 with a 71% returning production rate 61% win percentage over the last three years and believe it or not for a lower level Big 10 team they have a decent amount of talent at least on paper Talent 10% of their entire roster are blue chippers that's my team Talent index metric that I use but this is very different from where like S Plus has them ranked and fpi and etc etc um North Carolina on the other hand is one of my lower ranked teams in DPI at 60 602 only returning 37% production from that last season and of course having lost Drake May they've only won 52% of their games as I mentioned in the video I made this morning about this game uh over P the past three seasons one of the like more underperforming teams in the entire country uh despite again having 25% of their entire roster are former Blue Chip players Mack Brown in company have done a good job of recruiting down there but the coaching they haven't really been able to keep it together and a 52% win percentage within the context of playing in the ACC you know all all due respect to the ACC for what it is but it's not you know it's not the SEC it's not the big 10 I would say the ACC last season wasn't even as good as the Pack 12 pack 12 was lowkey a much deeper conference last season especially in terms of quarterback play than uh than a lot of other conferences out there and even in like a a lower level power four power five conference like the ACC was still only won 52% of the games for the last three seasons this is a game I'm really interested in because it's going to kind of be a good test for our DPI system whatever you want to call it and whether it's actually fairly accurate or not North Carolina is actually favored in this game in um on a lot of the websites on FanDuel and whatnot they're like a two-point favorite to win tonight at Minnesota and according to DPI if you go by simply my rankings are here Minnesota is a much better quality team I think they have better coaching to be honest with you I'm not that high on Mac Brown anymore I think football in terms of the metag game and things have kind of moved on from him uh we've seen that in play calling in big games for them in recent years the system that they run isn't necessarily that great uh anymore a lot of college defenses have kind of figured that out um in Minnesota on the other hand they lost Joe rosi but I think they brought in I'm blinking on names right now they brought in a decent defensive coordinator I believe he came over from Rutgers if I remember right he was running those Rutgers defenses that were decently good and um you know 71% returning production is is a good you know indicator of how experienced this team is I think with the fact that they're that experienced uh they bring back something like eight of 11 uh defensive starters from last season on a defense that was pretty good A defense that was low-key pretty good um yeah Joseph uh also mentioning thank you Joseph for bringing that up in the chat uh the new quarterback I believe he came from New Hampshire uh I'm really terrible with names by the way so if I blank on a name I'm so sorry but I've always been terrible with remembering names it's just a thing I have I don't know this maybe brain damage who knows I've had heat stroke like three times at different points in my life so that might explain it I don't know but uh Joseph with a good point Minnesota also brings in the quarterback that they got in the transfer portal who I think should probably be an upgrade from cak Manis because from what we saw from calak Manis last season um anything would have been an upgrade really so that's really what I've got for Minnesota versus North Carolina I think it's going to be a really interesting game I think Minnesota with that decent to pretty good running back that they have with the experience at um offensive line that they have coming back I think uh I think they'll kind of bullyball North Carolina to a victory I don't think North Carolina is too highly rated um on defense let's see where they rank in defensive SP plus coming into the season um as everyone knows I'm a big SP plus Guy where is North Carolina in Sp plus anyway I would know this if I had done a big preview video for them don't forget to get your super chats and all that good stuff in if you leave a super chat I will definitely read that comment but you also you don't have to Super Chat just we're not we're not uh we're not um I don't know uh stock market broker guys on this channel I'm not going to we're not Finance Bros here on Darren tux ball I'm not going to gate keep me reading your comments behind a pay wall but it is appreciated if you do leave a Super Chat North Carolina 55th in defensive SP plus scored in 26.3 in the top 30 in offens of SP plus um but that's what also kind of makes this game interesting if you look here I guess we'll go back to the screen share so you guys can see this not that uh uh right here we got North Carolina at 40th in preseason SP plus then we've got Minnesota down here at 47th the interesting thing about Minnesota I think if they want to kind of make this a slog of a game and run the ball often and make it a defensive football game which I think will be kind of the you know the the way to go for Minnesota I think they they can easily win this game cuz they are 22nd in defensive preseason SP plus preseason SP plus doesn't mean nearly as much as like in season um this of course is a metric that's based on recent performance and things and we just don't have that much to go off of in terms of that because it's the off season going into the season these teams haven't played a game yet and obviously with Minnesota having lost Joe rosi to Michigan State we'll really kind of have to see what they look like um Joseph with another comment I appreciate you guys watching by the way didn't know if we'd get many people watching during the day on a Thursday this is kind of the time of day that's best for me to do these literally while my toddler is taking his nap for the day but um Joseph with another great comment I think Mack is a retired man walking at NC yeah isn't that dude up in like his 70s now I was uh I was 16 years old when um or was it was it 2005 or 2006 it was 2004 as actually as a matter of fact wasn't it I think it was 2004 uh which would have made me like 14 when he won that National Championship uh with Texas with Vince Young back in the day I feel like he was old back then he had like gray hair and I remember thinking he was an old man back then I probably wouldn't think he was an old man now though you know his age at the time compared to how old I have gotten that's for sure uh don't forget to check out the link in the chat by the way that I left that is the link to our Discord you can join our Discord uh and if you join our Discord and you make a request in there we will get you on and actually chatting with me if you wish I know my music is kind of going in the background here um let me know if you guys are annoyed by that or whatever I don't know we not a super professional out here we're really not still taking you guys' questions of course uh in the chat want to shout out Mark Cruz I think that's how you pronounce it Marquez Marquez maybe uh the guy LED FCS in passing yards last season that's interesting I really need to look up his name uh let's see doing research on the Fly here [Music] course it comes up the Minnesota Vikings when I search it Max brasmer that's right Max brasmer and he transferred from my internet's being slow yeah he transferred from north New uh from New Hampshire excuse me so Ryan day's uh Ryan day and Chip Kelly's uh Alma modder up there there although I don't know if Chip Kelly actually went to New Hampshire I don't know if Chip Kelly went to school at all just kidding just kidding Ohio State fans didn't me that time of year where uh I was going to say it's going to be that time of year where Ohio State fans are extra sensitive but when are they not kind of wanted to talk about the LSU uh USC match up some more too um I don't know if you guys saw my full length on that but um I think the closer the closer we get to that one um the more confident the more confident I feel really um going to turn the music down just a little or can you guys even still hear it I don't know I'm not good at the whole you'd think I would be good at audio I was in a band for years but actually actually good at any of that stuff otherwise I'd actually be making a living minute um yeah I wanted to talk more about LSU versus USC um I really think that uh the closer we get to the game the more kind of confident I am in my pick for that game which is a weird thing for me usually I kind of lose a little confidence as I you know leading up to the game uh leading up to doing the videos at least that I do I do my research for what you know whatever you want to call it people call it research it's really just reading some articles um and things like that which is really what what I do I I read preview articles from local beat reporters from whatever teams you know whatever teams I'm covering for these specific games and do try to do as much as I can but of course I'm very limited on time as well so don't always get to hit on everything um and then I'll hear you know little tidbits of information here and there that maybe I didn't necessarily pick up on my research of reading certain articles or things leading up to the video and uh usually that that'll get me kind of that'll get me kind of second guessing myself but really heading into this matchup with LSU and USC I feel more confident I feel really confident in the fact that that's just a a metag game uh rock paper scissors kind of nightmarish matchup I think for that LSU defense that new LSU defense to bringing in now I'm blinking on the name once again you guys are going to hear me say that a ton as I do these live streams to try to cover all these teams I apologize but they brought in the guy from Missouri and if you know anything about the guy from Missouri who was a defensive coordinator there for the last couple Seasons it's a very uh single high man um lots of man coverage lots of not necessarily I wouldn't say simple coverages but um uh lots of man coverage leave your cornerbacks on islands and Blitz the out of the other team kind of Defense now what's the one thing we've known about Lincoln Riley in his entire tenure as a head coach well they never have problems at all against a simple defense and especially against defenses that like the blitz a lot Lincoln Riley is an old Mike Leech guy he's an old Air Raid guy the air raid was basically invented and worked as a concept as a scheme offensively and I know I'm getting really up there in like a 40,000 ft view of things uh talking about metag game and things like that but the air raid was really invented along with the spread offense as kind of a solution to overly aggressive defenses that were heavily committed to stopping the run so here you have a defensive coordinator whose system maybe doesn't uh have the answer for what USC does schematically now the one thing I will say the caveat to that and the thing that has caused me to second guess on that game maybe even just a little bit is the fact that USC's offensive line Plus put it simply was pretty God awful last season and that's one thing I feel bad about that I didn't really cover into too much depth in my USC preview and prediction videos for both how I think their season is going to go I've done several videos on USC you can go back and watch them I did a video on USC overall how I think they're going to do throughout the season then of course I have the big LSU USC 40 minute long preview and prediction video but I didn't mention in either of those just how bad the offensive line was last season season and now I think they've brought in some guys in the transfer portal to kind of patch things up but we all know just look at Dion Sanders and Colorado my biggest hot take for week one by the way is that I think Colorado might get surprised upset by NDSU uh some of those you don't want to play those Dakota FCS schools whether it be South Dakota State North Dakota State or even like UND they're just all really really high quality FCS teams that if they played uh uh you know some group of five teams out there they'd actually be favored against that's how good some of them are but I digress that's number two that's the second degression we've got into this thing and we've only been what 20 minutes into it but no the thing that really just makes me second guess my pick here is the fact that USC their offensive line hasn't been that great so maybe some of the pressure packages maybe some of the things overwhelm that offensive line and let's admit it Miller Moss isn't the like super mobile guy that Caleb Williams was but what Miller Moss is is a very experienced quarterback for a guy coming in in his first starting season he's a guy that's sat behind guys like Caleb Williams for quite some time now and really learned that system I think especially with Woody marks coming in a guy who speaking of air raid comes over from Mississippi State a guy who catches the ball out of the back field a ton with really Speedy wide receivers like Zachariah Branch who can easily get open against man coverage I think it's going to create a nightmare matchup for LSU schematically and now I see Joseph's mentioned in the comments the new USC defense coordinator from UCLA could make them scary and I happen to agree on that as well I think where there's a schematic disadvantage for LSU against USC there's kind of a schematic Advantage for USC against LSU LSU with nus Meer or no Meer or however the you pronounce his name I've got a really bad Michigan accent in case you guys can't notice so like some people in my comments I probably all guys from Louisiana and they talk their own way down there I know I've worked down there shout outs to bunky Louisiana funky buy live there for a while but um I I don't know how you correctly pronounced nus I say nus Meer whatever you know who I'm talking about so off but the nus Meer has a a from what I've seen inme he has a big arm LSU likes to stretch the field a little bit and they do also have a good offensive line and a good ground game to compliment them the thing with d and Lyn's USC defense is it's kind of the antithesis to what the guy from Missouri now at LSU likes to run USC is going to kind of move into that de tinland defense which is kind of molded from that same Raven style of defense that Michigan has used has used for the past few seasons it's a defense that wink marale originally designed deanan Lyn was kind of an acolyte of his um deanan Lynn of course spent some time at Baltimore under wink Martin D and then went out on his own as a linebacker coach now a defensive coordinator and by the way the strength of UCLA last season wasn't that high flying whatever you want to call it Chip Kelly offense the offense was actually pretty bad they were like second to last in red zone offense by the way but the strength of that UCLA team was the fact that they were running the dant in defense and the dland defense likes to keep the lid on things run a lot of cover three cover six have deep safeties back and they will make you they will force you to March down the field they're not a team that's going to give up a lot of deep shots they will tell you all day long go ahead and get that running back in the flat or you can go ahead and have this receiver on this little slant route that's what we saw from Michigan this past season that's how Maryland was able to stay in the game with them for a little bit Talia was able to pick up some wide receivers on some short routes and convert some first downs you know Ohio State in the game was able to run on them for one drive because they like to keep safeties back and uh keep the lid on the offense so to speak which means fewer guys in the Box but but I think again going up against the LSU offense the key really for me I guess now that I think about it is that USC is going to have to try to stop LSU's running game without having to commit too many guys into the box if they can do that like Michigan has been able to do cuz really the key to Michigan's great defenses for the past couple of seasons is they've had great defensive line play Elite level defensive line play and pretty Elite line backer play from guys like Michael Barrett and Junior Coulson that they those those guys up front and those guys in the linebacker Court are so good that you don't have to bring a safety down into the box it's really that simple um in a lot of ways when we're talking about all these things it's easy to get kind of lost in the weeds and talk about complex coverages and talk about you know option routes and different things offenses do kind of pre snap and post Snap to confuse defenses and and we can get into that as well but it's it's sometimes it's pretty plain and simple as well if USC is able to slow down LSU's running game without having to commit too many resources to that I think they'll be successful now one thing that also scares me is outside of like be Alexander who himself is yet to show a lot of his potential and reach his perceived ceiling um they don't really have I don't think at least the talent along the defensive line they may have to commit some more resources but we'll see I think even if the game does end up being a shootout and I do think it will end up being a shootout because both of these offense are offenses are very good and both of these teams defensively have a lot to catch up on I think USC I'd take a Lincoln Riley offense and a shootout nine times out of 10 I mean unless you're playing one of those you know Mike Leech Texas Tech teams from back in the day unless you're playing like Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech speaking of that match up there the old uh Baker Mayfield Patrick Mahomes game that each team scored like 70 points back in the day um you know unless you're facing those kind of teams I'll take Lincoln Riley and a shootout any day if that's the kind of game it turns out to be and that's the kind of game that I think it will be by the way um see we still got some people watching I'm going to throw it over to you guys to ask some questions in the chat and so and so uh also don't forget to hit that Discord link and join the Discord we're going to see if anybody has joined now somebody just did all right we got somebody new in the Discord welcome Jay I think your name is Jay uh appreciate you jumping in the Discord uh if you want to call in and chat feel free to hit me up send a message in the Discord and we will get you hooked up there our call-in system isn't that great not going to lie um kind of a you know back to school back in broke college student mode so we can't really afford the software that other people use when you see other people using the ones that like you can call in on a number and they pay for that it's like $20 a month and I just don't have I'm not going to tell my wife hey can we spend $20 a month on my side hobby college football channel she'll look at me crossey um but yeah feel free to hit up with questions super chats things like that we can also talk uh Michigan Fresno State um we've got my three big piics let's just go over to the channel here uh screen share my three big picks for the week we can show you guys that and talk about them for a second lots to talk about again and that's why I think um that's why I think it was a good time it was a good time to bring this week in Big 10 football back I think we're not going to do this for too long each day probably like I don't know I don't know how long we've been live here um according to my timer we have been live for 33 minutes um we'll probably go for like a half hour 45 minutes maybe an hour here or there so we'll be live for just a few more minutes here talking a few more games excuse me but I really wanted to also get into my three big picks this is a thing we're going to be doing throughout the season these are my three big picks for this week these are I do other predictions and things um and those are kind of you know games that I like to analyze and talk about the meta game and kind of the rock paper scissors matchups of the different schemes and players and etc etc these are really the games when I do the three big picks for the week these are really the games that I'm confident in you being able to bet on if you're a betting type of person I really feel confident in OSU actually covering that 50 and a half line I know that sounds maybe absolutely insane to some of you guys but but Ohio state is one of the most loaded rosters in college football they brought over a an offensive Guru and Chip Kelly to be their offensive coordinator running what I honestly don't think is going to be that different of a system from Ryan day but what they bring over got a hair on my microphone randomly but what they do bring over is the guy who's more competent in the running game which can really give problems to a team in akan that is just honestly one of the worst teams in college football speaking of those NDSU uh and SDSU of the world that we talked about a few minutes ago there if akan was to play one of them I'd actually favor than some of those bigger FCS schools against akan akan is that bad I think honestly this is going to be a game that's like 63 to 10 or something like that where Ohio State Believe It or Not does cover because I think even the third stringers even Julian Saiyan and some of the younger wide receivers are better than uh than akan starters just just that's just facts um I'm actually surprised that line is only 50 and a half I'm surprised it's not like a then in Michigan I think Michigan a couple years ago started out with like Hawaii who at the time just hired that Jimmy Jimmy something guy to be their head coach and they were in the DRS of a really bad stretch and Michigan had like a 56o line on on Hawaii if I remember right or something like that then the second game I'm really confident on is actually Michigan versus Fresno State I'm actually taking Fresno State and the points on that one because I do think that um that'll be kind of the classic Michigan blowout uh as they say as I say at least this game is going to feel like it's over halfway through the third quarter or maybe even before that Fresno State was like something like 94th uh running against the run last season on run defense in the entire country they're 88th in preseason defense of SP Plus and they gave up around 280 something rushing yards per game that's considering the context of playing in the Mountain West now they'll be playing against one of the best rushing teams in all of college football with Donovan Edwards a new yet very good offensive line on very uh confident in Michigan's offensive line there are more reports out of camp now that there are some surprise starters along that offensive line and Evan link and possibly D judis but I still really think that they're going to bully Fresno State what they're going to do is it's going to be like 14 to3 or something like that at the end of the first half and this game is going to end up somewhere in the 20 or 30 to 10 to maybe 28 to 10 ballpark I think Michigan comes up just short of covering the spread in this one actually cuz Fresno State's a pretty good team uh Fresno State is ranked above several like a lot of big 10 teams in preseason SP plus they're like 63rd they're ranked ahead of Purdue they're ranked ahead of Michigan State so Fresno isn't even like the worst uh opponent that Michigan has this season they're lowkey out of kind of the mid to lower team tier teams or lowkey one of the better ones in kind of that tier of opponents um so it could be a tricky game for Michigan 2o as they try to get their offense figured out um and that's why I think Fresno State will cover the spread in that one actually and then last but certainly not least the game we just talked about USC is getting four and a half and I have to take that and what I think will actually be a tight game again I think this game will be a shootout and I like Lincoln riy and shootouts one thing I really don't like is Brian Kelly in big games the interesting thing is both of these coaches are really bad historically in big matchups so it's kind of going to be like one team's got a win situation which I really think USC can do it neutral field in Las Vegas closer to home for USC than LSU how much does that factor in is there a bit of a more of a home crowd for USC at this game um we'll see maybe they get a little bit of extra juice or energy out of that I just really like the points here I think even if this was like a three-point line I would still take it but that's those are my big picks I think we might actually have to wrap this one up a little earlier than we wanted but we still went about almost 40 minutes with this one so uh really appreciate you guys uh hopping on really appreciate the talk we got somebody new in the Discord which is always welcome um we're going to end off our this weekend Big 10 football on that but we're going to keep doing this every Thursday does that work for you guys does that sound good for you guys let me know in the comments uh let me know if you thought the music I don't know if you can even hear the music over my dumb voice the whole time but let me know in the comments what you guys think of course give me your your biggest picks for the week for the Big 10 all that good stuff and uh we'll see you guys uh same time next week I don't know how to end a video right I don't know especially on camera there's a reason why I usually make the slides and cuz like DM camera is still weird to me oh I'll be on voice of college football their Michigan Channel tonight with TJ Ronin at 8:00 talking Michigan football 2 so check that out and I'm just going to I'm just