hello everyone and welcome back to another video with Ono politics and today I'm going to explain why I'm going to be the most accurate election forecaster for the 2024 presidential election hit the like button and subscribe for more content just like this make sure to comment down below as it does help us out with the algorithm and make sure to go ahead and follow me on X in the description down below at OnPoint politics in our lowercase and so you see here my election forecast has Donald Trump winning with 313 Electoral College votes to Harris's 225 Electoral College votes well makes me stand out from other election forecasters is that I have my own polling averages for the national level and all of the Battleground states which include Nevada Arizona New Mexico Minnesota Texas Florida Georgia North Carolina Virginia Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin main at large and New Hampshire when creating all of these polling averages we weigh the electorate to the same electorate as 2020 to basically out sample any polling bias that would occur in the elections a lot of times the polling Aggregates tend to overestimate one candidate or another and our job here at OnPoint politics is to remove that bias and when you do you get Donald Trump winning the Electoral College very easy now that is just one part of my model we also have a demographics portion which goes into it and we use the 538 demographic map to play around with the margins and I have a team that comes together and we kind of come down to a consensus and then we also look at the trend Between the States from 2020 all the way back to 2000 so for example if I go back to 2000 and I tie the national popular vote this is the state's essentially National popular vote leaning or the nonpartisan leaning of every single state so Wisconsin voted 0.3 percentage points to the right of the nation back in 2020 and now we see in 2000 excuse me and we see here back in 2020 now it voted to the r of nation by 3.8% so we track the trend between all the Cycles going back and what we do is we apply my national popular vote aggregate which you can find at OnPoint politics.com which also has my same exact election forecast as the one that I'm showing you there so we can see Donald Trump has about a 70% chance to win the presidential election winning the Electoral College with a fairly decent margin in a lot of the Swing States and almost picking off New Hampshire even looking at the national average Donald Trump did pick up the majority of the Kennedy support that did end up falling off Harris has been steadily growing the past couple of weeks today I also decided to reweight some of the grading measures that I have for all the pollsters I grade based on the 2020 accuracy margin we also grade on how many undecideds there are in the polling so the more undecided there are the less of a grade it gets the less of a weight it'll have in the average as well as looking at the sample size how many polls are in the aggregate currently for that pollster because the more polls they have the more representative they would be of the electorate sample and also looking at the fact that we also have whether or not it's a likely rotor screen a registered rotor screen adults likely voter screens get a higher rating and so when you factor all of that in Donald Trump is still up in the popular vote by 2.35 percentage points he's at 48.6% to Harris is 46.2% the undecideds have gone up that last bit of Kennedy support that has been falling off and is almost at zero now effectively has gone undecided so either candidate's going to have room to pick up as time goes on in the cycle let's see what will happen with some of these undecided voters I think it'll be very interesting to see which way they lean and the less of them we have the easier it'll be for me to basically predict the popular vote come election day which will give me a more accurate forecast but even right now RCP has haris up by 1.5% we have Trump up 2.5 that is a threep point miss about a three-point Miss roughly give or take and that's the exact miss that they had in 2020 they had a 2.7 percentage point Miss to the left of the nation in the previous election and so with similar polling to 2020 sometimes even Bluer samples we find a similar polling error when we adjust all the polls to a tide electorate which is where I believe the elector will be we can see here that Donald Trump is winning fairly easily and you may say well you know this is a bit outlandish how do we know you're going to be accurate or at least closer to the real result well if you would have plugged in everything from my model and put it into the 2020 election we would have actually gotten this map right here Donald Trump would have gotten 232 Electoral College votes to Joe Biden's 306 would have been very similar to the actual Electoral College map here with just slight minor differences in some of the states but overall I would have been able to predict a Joe Biden Victory on a surface level as we all know there were Shenanigans going on however from a political analyst perspective who was trying to give the electorate a very accurate representation of what the election was looking like this would suffice Joe Biden getting 306 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump's 232 each state was about a point or two off maybe three depending on the state but no state was over three points off in any scenario whatsoever and so this is fairly fascinating that just looking at my personal predictions from 2020 which I did have SA D and averaging them out with the trend map we got this exact map and now with these polling averages that are readjusting for the polling ID in some of these states or the party ID will be able to get a fairly accurate representation which does not affect my own bias when it comes to predicting the actual margin in the states I can solely rely on these polling averages we'll see if they're accurate this year or not but for example like right now in Wisconsin Donald Trump in our average is polling at plus 6.8% the final model margin is a little bit lower than that however in 20120 our average for Wisconsin we actually did test it out I can go find it all the way at the end here we actually did test that test it out Biden is up in the state by around two points and that is about one and a half points off from what the real result was which is better than any aggregate you would have found up there even Michigan we did Michigan and it is still a pretty big lead I mean Biden is up here by quite a bit he's up by nine in this average so it is a little bit worse but again we were waiting for the 2016 elector we actually ended up weighing for a little bit less of a Democrat elector in the state I believe it was about tide so if we were to actually wave for roughly a tide electorate we'd actually get something fairly interesting where the result would actually be pretty accurate so if you would have weighed to the 2020 electorate you know which was about tied in Michigan you would have actually gotten a pretty similar result to what the actual result was it actually would have been D plus 2.6 so again very very interesting stuff if you would have weighed this to the same electorate as R plus 5 you would have ended up getting about a d plus2 uh a d plus2 lead for Biden when you would have weighed to the 2020 electorate so again very very interesting stuff out of the state of Michigan in its 202 the average Biden is practically leading the state by the same amount that he even want it by so again fairly interesting that I'm able to get a spread that is fairly accurate to the actual results you see your Biden plus 2.6 he ended up winning the state by 2.8% if we look at you know for example my Wisconsin average for 2020 we see Biden up by 2.1% here he ended up winning it by 0.6 so again it's some slight slight errors within margin of error within reasonable margin of error but still would have predicted it I may actually go ahead and do the polling average for all of the states I may possibly do it to see what I would get because I think it would be a pretty interesting find to see what I actually get out of some of these states if I weigh everything to the 2020 electorates to see what I would have gotone I think it's going to be fairly interesting to see how that would have actually ended up playing out and so essentially guys I would tell you do not trust 538 don't trust you know these political pundants on X don't trust anybody else you know except for rasm reports Richard Baris is another good pollster that you guys should be listening to I get a lot of educational information from them and Russ Muson reports as well who I've just recently did a collaboration with not that long ago but you guys should be paying attention to what I'm saying because I believe I'm providing more of an accurate analysis of the 2024 presidential election and so make sure to go ahead and hit the like button and to subscribe if you want more content just like this and I will see you guys in the next video