Extraordinary hurricane season possible according to NOAA outlook

good morning to you Mark suth hurricanetrack.com here Thursday now the 23rd of May 2024 got the webcam working at least for now so let's enjoy it while it lasts on the hurricane outlooking discussion today we're going to uh take a look at the Noah forecast it's uh I think the busiest one and the most aggressive forecast they have ever issued we're going to look at that I'm sure you've already seen the data but we're just going to kind of reinforce it and really underscore the fact that we could be looking at a as they said an extraordinary hurricane season with societal impacts for a lot of people and we have to really take this seriously especially with everything else going on on the periphery with geopolitics and you know just your everyday lives are very busy I'm sure and we have to keep severe weather and hurricanes on the Forefront so that we are mentally prepared to physically deal with what could be going on later all right that's my job to inform you keep you in front of this stuff we don't want you to get behind it so starting things off tweet here from our friends at Fox Weather yes the Noah hurricane forecast very aggressive 17 to 25 name storms 8 to 13 hurricanes 4 to 7 Category 3 or higher very significant they're very similar to the numbers from Colorado State University and you know what else can we say it's looking like a very busy season here's the graphic from Noah themselves and again just kind of reiterating this 17 to 25 of the name storms 8 to 13 hurricanes that's a lot if we have that high side 13 hurricanes 15 is the record by the way back in 2005 of memory serves and an ace the accumulated Cyclone energy which tells us about the quality and the longevity of such storms expected to be 150 to 245 per I mean 245 are you serious that's crazy of normal and the highest name storms you know everything in the May Outlook and um wow uh the normals of course are 147 and three so we're getting close to potentially doubling all of the metrics here and of course we know the warm Atlantic the Amo we've been talking about that and the linia that's possibly coming on and here are some different particulars in their graphic I'll put a link to this in today's description if you want to look at it and um you know it's it's potentially as they said going to be extraordinary and we as Americans and everybody else around the Caribbean Central America Mexico all of us in the Atlantic Basin and even elsewhere over across the big pond over here um the Iberian Peninsula up to the British Isles the UK yes this is your problem too because these hurricanes can often come around and then end up way over here later on just something to think about and these hurricanes can come in and disrupt the oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico and uh either us interest or what is it pimex down here the Mexican oil interest and that affects the globe so this is a really big deal and we need to treat it as such all right so here again is the culprit at least some of it very warm Atlantic Amo been pointing this out ad nauseum still there not going anywhere and then there is the makings of our linia coming on the stage is just about set we're almost to June and we know what's coming at least potentially it certainly seems that way and right on key we do have an area down here low probabilities of development it's an a large area of low pressure um environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive overall for significant development but as we talk about a lot this is currently and will continue to bring heavy rain for portions of this region of our friends in the Caribbean there so we have to remember all the different hazards from tropical systems and even disturbances like this one um you know need to be taken into consideration and we can see it really uh really nicely here on the satellite imagery there's our system not very well organized at all after all it is May 23rd the bigger stuff the more organized and more potent stuff is coming later we're just starting to warm things up so to speak so yeah but nevertheless heavy rainfall a potential across portions of Hispanola Southeast Bahamas Turks Kos Eastern Cuba that vicinity so just be aware of that and uh again I love this product here from the University of Wisconsin really helping to point out the vorticity or the energy down there at the lower levels and as you can see not really matching my definition of something to be too concerned about in terms of further significant organization but there is some energy down there we can see that in the lowlevel vorticity field but it's not bundling just yet some opportunity for further organization as it moves out into the Southwest Atlantic over here but I'm not too concerned with it and it's not really part of the overall oh this is a signal that we're going to have that big hurricane season you know just sometimes stuff happens randomly uh the real I think test will be to see once we get into June do we get more prolific development every time there's a window of favorability over here and do we start getting development between Africa and the Lesser end Tilles in June once those Bonafide tropical waves come off and I think we have our first one out there analyzed now from the tropical analysis and forecast Branch uh these pieces of energy that come off Africa and propagate Westward will those develop in June that'll be a Telltale sign that we're going to have a very active season but even if June is quiet believe me August September and October could be absolutely like a track race just crazy busy but we will be looking for signs early on starting in June all right speaking of looking for signs this is the GFS from the 6z run and again it's that 850 marbar part of the atmosphere and you can see that Disturbed weather down here in the modeling but it's all diffused and spread out not concentrated so let's see if it ever does according to the operational here get more concentrated and it tries to as you can see out here at about 24 hours probably overdoing it taking a piece of energy and sort of blowing it up prematurely whatever aggressively I mean we'll know this time tomorrow when I do my update is that what it looks like and I got to remember to save this graphic I if I do forget I can go back and just look because of Dr Cowan site here we can go back in the archives but the GFS is somewhat bullish on this trying to concentrate a little bit better but then it kind of moves on out not too far south and east of Bermuda we'll see it looks like it's still got somewhat of a frontal characteristic attached to it not your best Consolidated purebred looking tropical system but a disturbance nonetheless and uh we'll see what happens over the coming days so moving this on out into the future for about the next week or so pretty solid trades just coming on across through the Caribbean nothing all this vorticity is stretched out nothing concentrating as we get out to about a week looking at the Euro this is the 6z run as well only goes out to 90 hours but that's enough for now it doesn't do too much with our system out there as you can clearly see stretches that vorticity out and this is a great example of that all of that energy is pulled out you know like cotton candy or putty or whatever it's not in a nice ball of energy or what we call vorticity conservation of angular momentum all that good stuff the bu in of the heat however you want to put it this is not that and it doesn't even look at look like it's going to be that way through the 990 hour time frame on the Euro here from the 6z run so as I mentioned yesterday and this is another reminder from a tweet today from Ben Ben null and it's interesting here that he puts this word and he chooses his words wisely believe me you know we're not in this for uh clicks and likes and whatever if you like what we do and you click on it well that means that you trust what we're saying and when Ben says something that is uh that catches your attention like he uses significant or you get what I'm saying we trust Ben and when Ben says something like significant you need to pay attention let me use yellow to highlight it better so he says a significant convective pulse that's the green area is poised to propagate into the Atlantic Ocean during the second week of June and we've been eyeing this for the last several days this will likely make the environment more more conducive to Tropical development such as through a reduction in wind shear and this is the science this is what we learned from this particularly over the Caribbean and that is especially important because the Caribbean is where we would look for development climatologically speaking this time of year and getting into the portion of June that Ben is you know highlighting here the second week of June so here's the uh the map the animation and as you can see not favorable now now and as we get into June it does look a lot more favorable with Rising motion here settled over the Atlantic Basin and that is a conducive signature for development and we'll just watch and see all right so again severe weather still an active issue out here in the plains I'm currently in the Dallas Fort Worth area with Greg Nordstrom we went down here yesterday towards Brownwood and got on what we thought was going to be a big hail producer it got darker than the total eclipse was and I saw a few other Chasers um mentioning this as well that they were down there it was literally within just a few seconds it'd be like if this room here somebody just turned down the lights to almost total darkness it was bizarre and there was that greenish look to the sky and the radar indicated a lot of big hail was coming but we almost had nothing very very strange situation uh some theories are that the hail core was collapsing and it was still up a loft though and then the hail that was still there was falling into a warmer layer but with that much energy in the signature on the radar we expected there would at least be a lot of small hail we saw some hail but it was nothing like what we were anticipating so that was yesterday what about today and Beyond again severe weather obviously a big issue we had the tornado down there in the temple area and we remember the tornado in the green field Iowa area from the other day devast ating loss of life the damage you know this is all compounded and people are getting a little bit tired of it I'm sure the tornadoes are kind of back you know it's been a few years since we've had this many like this right so we have to pay attention to it so today's threat you know tornado low but not zero I'll show you stole that from this next tweet over here that I'm going to show you now the wind threat mainly up in way Northern can Canada nope Kansas and Southern Nebraska Canada will get theirs they get severe weather too it's coming later in the month and uh well really into June and Beyond and then the hail thread a really large area of potential 2-in hail that's the hatched area low chance but nevertheless it's there all right so that's today uh why are we not working here Mr Mouse there we are this is tomorrow so not much action where we are and you can see the slight risk over here outlining the tornado got to pay attention wind hail yep more significant where Greg and I will be so maybe we'll get out there tomorrow we'll see but then Saturday is what has a lot of people's attention because more energy more Dynamics everything's going to be in place for a significant severe weather outbreak in the heart of Tornado Alley Memorial Day Weekend there will be literally thousands of Chasers I will be here through this and of course we are looking for giant hail part of this new project it is very difficult by the way it's a lot harder than I thought it was going to be you think the hunting tornadoes is hard for people that want to see the photogenic tornadoes we don't want to ever see them go through land that is occupied by us right or animals I mean sure you we're not like that but they're spectacular to see it's a force of nature that's just amazing and those are already difficult enough uh to find depending on where you are and what your experience is uh I figured hail would be a lot easier but the large hail that's a much harder nut to crack so to speak uh but we're going to continue on with it as we develop this project to really increase awareness about the the really the economic impact of of hail $60 billion of insured losses last year alone so yes it's a pretty big deal and want to make sure that we're not ignoring it but it's just a lot harder than I thought anyway this is what Oklahoma Mesonet tweeted I thought this was great and um this is their little infographics today's severe risk I like it it says low but not zero and that's that brown area and the green area Tornado threat low but not zero the hail threat is slight Maybe baseball size hail in Oklahoma and that's where GRE and I will be going later today it looks like and then there's the wind and uh just the overall threats and then of course Saturday they're out looking this area looking at SPC data make sure you have a plan if you're in this area people are they're exhausted of it I'm sure but that doesn't matter Nature's going to keep throwing these punches and we have to number one be aware and just know that this stuff could be coming and be ready to take action to save your life that's the most important thing all right looking at the high resolution guidance before I let you go here this is the latest her the high resolution rapid refresh model one of many convectively allowing models but for the sake of time we're just going to look at this this is 1:00 p.m. central 2: p.m. 300 p.m. 400 p.m. 5 6 7 8 the her doesn't show much at all in Oklahoma so maybe Greg and I won't be doing that but look near the Metroplex here there's some clusters of storms we'll see he and I have got some chatting to do about what we're going to do today our Target will be over here in Southwest Oklahoma or we could just sit tight and see what develops in and south and west of the Metroplex and not have to drive 10 hours today anyway we'll see what happens all right so let me get me back hey the cam worked the whole time that's great yeah so very busy hurricane season coming up this Memorial Day Weekend gather family around or whatever and you're down in these hurricane prone areas just talk about it a little bit you know hey I've been hearing we're going to have a potentially very busy season what are we going to do about it what can we do about it just get that ball rolling everything you do now is a step towards being less stressed later cuz it is very very stressful just a couple of other notes Here We are continuing to work on our hurricane U series that educational series kind of like a podcast uh with like a deeper dive into what we're looking at each hurricane season and one of the topics that I will address in the coming weeks is the mental health side of all of this the Doom and Gloom part how do we take this information and turn it into something actionable how do we deal with the stress of everything and I actually talk to somebody that knows everything about that that among other topics coming forth uh including insurance and how to deal with that you know trying to get you ready for the upcoming season there's just a lot going on and in your life I'm sure too so with that I thank you for tuning in to the hurricane Outlook and discussion from all of us at the hurricane track team in our community we appreciate you joining in and watching have a great rest of your Thursday I'm Mark suth we'll talk to you tomorrow morning