[LIVE] Trading Forex w/Smart Money (PPI DATA RELEASE)

welcome back to the finance corner so today is Thursday October October September 12th and it is 9:25 in the morning just before Market open and we have some data releases today we had some really nice data releases so we actually got the PPI data this morning the month of of a month and year ofe data no sorry core CPI core PPI and the PPI month of a month and we also got unemployment claims so it looks like previous unemployment was 228 they expected it to go down but it actually went up and then we have PPI data actually a positive number same thing with the core which came from Mega so core CPI is supposed to be these numbers are supposed to be better than or good for the currency and then looks like actual less than forecast is good for currency so more means this should be essentially bearish news though we should get a bullish dollar according to the data at least let's see what's actually been happening so we've been getting a bearish dollar interesting interesting interesting we we'll go into the technical analysis for the day I just want to cover some uh new stuff going on basically so see oh we also had the uh debate today or not today this week which is a pretty big deal and um a lot of people are really on the fence when it comes to who to choose to vote for they're saying that um it's about 50/50 chance that uh either or can get um elected as president let me see wrong tab I want to see if I could find the poles I'm me lagging we can watch some key moments of the presidential debate here it's actually pretty interesting I I think that um and we'll get right into the markets cu the the Market's about to open yeah they actually got their they actually got their handshake going oned willes issue hasor our's aist everybody know's aist her father's aist profess eom he turn the AC of andn I feel like this like why was she laughing at this part like trying to make it seem like it's not true like I've seen the videos where people in Springfield Ohio are like literally complaining about finding complaints about this exact thing and here we go like she's actually making light of it cuz she's just laughing I don't like even if you think it's not true it's like why would you just laugh at that I don't know I just want to clarify you bring up ABC News to the city manag he usim ofet abused by individual I think the key key word is like credible reports like how do you find a credible report of someone's dog being attacked like if someone says their dog was attacked and they tell the news outlet and then they tell this guy they're just like no that's not credible enough like what do you mean we found you found no credible reports of people's dogs being eaten why do you need a credible report City manag says there's no that was just a quick clip of uh what we had going on in the presidential debate is actually pretty pretty good um I think that overall camad really did do a decent job compared to Biden in earlier months um I think it was in like August something or June and yeah she did a much better job in uh carrying herself in debate so I'll give her P up to that but uh as far as the making the race of the presidential election like closer we really don't know cuz that debate it was supposed to be kind of like a Telltale sign who's going to be most likely to go into the office but without close it was I don't know man I overall think that Trump wanted the debate but I don't know man all right let's talk let's talk about the markets let's talk about the markets so yesterday we had a huge reversal candle and this is due to the fact that we had CPI so CPI data came in cool let me see where is it or pretty much in line with expectations and oh no it was the year-over-year number but yeah exactly it came in in line with expectations so the previous number was 2.9 and now again down they for forecasted it to 2.5 and it actually came down to 2.5% so that's uh CPI and then the core CPI had a slight increase but really the year-over-year number is what was most important and they liked how that actually is in my expectations so if based on the price action we got yesterday the market really liked that news data right so when we also factor in today's data with PPI um it doesn't look like the data itself the release of the data itself is not necessarily the most bullish but we just have to see how price action rate responds at this point so we actually have Market open now I want to see what is going to go on let's uh let's I like looking at all three of the indexes so let's see get our handy dandy uh indicator on the only two indicators that I need EMA and uh London and New York open everything else is just based on price action so as you can see here actually have a nice sweep of liquidity here nice sweep of uh shortterm shortterm low resistance lows low resistance highs sorry and uh that's on the S SMP so let's see the Dow Jones kind of have a similar pattern here and the NASDAQ is just straight up trending no liquidity speed unless we consider this one down here but to me this kind of looks like we're reformed equal lows I'm curious about how the day is going to close sorry my nose itched but I'm curious about how the day is going to close because with how yesterday traded and we did a huge reversal we did a huge reversal like we did yesterday I'm curious to see if we're going to get some type of move back into the EMA maybe fill in some of the imbalance and then leave a wick and go higher but I think that for now um it do it does pay to be a bull it does pay to be a bull but some some areas that we can potentially see a pullback to like right here on this daily institutional candle and um let's see we have a similar pattern on all three of them yep similar pattern on all three so now it's just about seeing which one is going to be the stronger asset to actually take us back into I'm sorry the thing is going to it's going to be about seeing how much of this imbalance are we actually going to fill back in and we also want to pay attention to the strength of these assets so as we see so here's an example of relative strength and why it's very important we see that if we compare this uh this week's price action essentially from Friday until the low now we actually have we actually went lower with yesterday's move on CPI and this is on us30 right us30 a little bit trading slightly lower not that it's trading lower it made a lower Wick versus when we look at S&P we didn't actually break structure compared to Friday's close you know we're actually a little bit higher or we actually are in line with that bullet structure and that's the same thing I think with nas but if you see with nas the the slope is actually a little bit more steep so if anything relative strength analysis shows us that on the daily time frame NASDAQ is the most bullish asset so how can we use this information well now that we did an analysis on the daily time frame now we can zoom in onto a smaller time frame and I'm really expecting a pullback really I am expecting a pullback um I'm not sure exactly where it can pull back to but I want to see where it's going to like how low is it actually going to get before we start buying again so just as an example I believe maybe we can get back into this EMA and we can like tap the EMA at the very least or even go a little bit lower into the daily institutional candle but I do believe since the day just started it's 9:40 right now I don't want to go and actually take any buy positions right now no it's going to be about positioning ourselves with big money and big money I'm pretty sure they're going to want to have their orders here now I could be wrong I could be completely wrong but I just think that based off just the structure on the 4our and the daily I don't think that we can um I'm going to be looking for us to get lower basically let me see something actually take rid of this mine want to see if you were on a flat bottom okay if you were on a flat bottom candle that that might be a signal that we can be just going higher and um we are not going to get get a pullback actually but let me see is that flat bottom candle exist on any of them not necessarily cuz when you see flat bottom candles that's how you know that like that is going to be the like high of the day essentially but that's only on the daily chart so you you see for example here this is a good example of a flat top candle if you can see the top is completely flat meaning that as soon as the day opened we just sold we just sold and sold and sold so that's how you know that this like this day that is the high of the day if it's a flat top candle so basically I'm looking to see if it's the opposite on here but it's actually not we had a flat bottom candle but we're not there so it looks like we're actually getting some selling off now sorry it feels like this's [ __ ] spider crawling on me or some [ __ ] all right anyways we're actually getting some selling off now so that is very good let's see if everything else is selling off cuz really again the question is going to be about how low are we going to go how low we going to go how low we going to go and then you know once price gets back into our area of Interest we can then focus on taking positions to the upside uh I actually I'll talk about a position I did take on gold in pre-market um you can see here it was a very small position um so you see I took a buy position uh shortly after the news release on um on gold and so uh yeah we got out definitely a little bit early you see I got out 2527 we are currently at 25 4 seconds so that's a whole 2,000 points that I kind of missed out on but it's okay I want to talk about the reason why on gold that I was bullish though I just wasn't sure how long to hold it so on this daily chart that is essentially the reason why I was bullish because we had this equal highs here in the form of liquidity and it's been there for a very long time past couple of weeks since a August you know we just reached this point of resistance and we just couldn't get past it so now today that we actually had a catalyst being the news event to go higher that's basically why I was willing to take that trade that is essentially very simple why I was able to take that trade um I was looking at the 1 hour chart and then when I seen we already starting to have some bullishness by the time that 8:30 came around I was like all right maybe we can actually get some buys the only thing that I should have paid really attention to is um the fact that we've actually have a lot of smart money Concepts in here so we actually see the imbalance being filled and then breaking higher classic example of smart money classic example of smart money so I bought around 830 around here and I closed right here so I actually could have held it definitely could have held it but see the issue with me is I was on a smaller time frame so I was just focused on I think I was on the one minute where was it see yeah so back here I seen that we had a small sweep of liquidity so I was like that's enough there we go right here you see how we just barely Beach that So I entered on this candle here and essentially just rote it up just rode it up but I think on this uh slight pullback here is when I got out but even if I was still on this one minute chart we have our resistance here which acts as support here so that that could have been the re-entry but um I actually was wasn't looking for that this wasn't looking for it so but gold is bullish as [ __ ] gold is bullish as [ __ ] we just have to see how or if we can position ourselves to enter it but I don't think that we can cuz this thing is just going this thing is just going all right so we're actually getting our pullback though on um the indexes except for Nas Nas is doing its own thing but let's take a look at the dollar um yeah let's take a look at the dollar first so again we've been having like a I've been really we've been having embarrass on the dollar but I've really been anticipating a reversal if you can see here I excuse me this could be potentially lows for the month potentially now I'm not saying that it is but just bear with me as we walk through this weekly chart analysis so back here we have our low of the of the year the last week of the year and we we just tested that recently in the past couple of weeks and we actually had a huge reaction So based off the reaction in that area that's what tells me that we might spend some time in this area because once we already swept the liquidity took out everybody's orders now it's just a matter of building up Energy building up you know a reason for the price to move out of the zone so if we take into consider ation the daily structure now I kind of have a white call pattern what's beginning to be a white call pattern uh forming here and um I'm going to finish up my video on W call very soon and uh I'll put it out onto the patreon so you can follow along with uh what I'm about to talk about but essentially it looks very much like a whiteall pattern which is why I say that we might consolidate in this area for a while so we have our selling climax or automatic rally secondary test right and I'm not going to label every Everything yet cuz just because it's still in the forming like it's still forming our structure but this is essentially our um from here this is our phase a so now that now we're just in Phase B so from here it's just about analyzing where the market tips its hand where is the market going to show that wants to go and my my personal bias is bullish just because of the previous liquidity that we had and and how we swept it how we're reacting and just the fact that I think the market is do for a correction um and especially since we it falls in line with seasonality on September they say that September is really the weakest month in the year so if the stock markets are weak and the stock market is going to be losing value Val ation that has to be inflows into the dollar which is going to make the dollar rise right so that's kind of just the macro analysis of the dollar for now so I think we are just in this consolidation pattern we might get some more some more zigzags and some more um price action within this area cuz really it's just going to be all about identifying the extreme points within this area um right now you know especially the fact that it is not showing us that it wants to leave this area yet you know like maybe the only scenario that could make sense if it wants to break this area now is if we bounce off of this EMA here and then we can continue higher because with yesterday's price action we did fill in this imbalance here but that's why I think that this is a w off pattern cuz I don't think that we're actually just going to break out yet especially with the fact that today specifically Al might just be a bullish day so if if today is a bullish day on the stock market it's going to be bearish for the dollar for the most part for the most part because if because like if we think about it logically money from the dollar is going into assets that's why these assets are going to be increasing in price so where are we at now looks like we did get a pullback we're actively p back I like it I like it I like it I like it I like it a lot I like it a lot you see greed comes in the greed comes into play when I think that I can trade this on the way down it's like why you doing that bro why you why you doing too much I don't want to I don't want to do that even though I like I have a good feeling that let me think what is the way that we could have traded this let's let's do some paper trading shall we we were anticipating selling off into the um the higher time frame structures that we have or the higher time frame point of interest that we have right but how exactly could we sell this you know it's really not that clearcut the only thing I'm seeing is okay we have some short res um low resistance highs and pre-market and as soon as we get the open we sell off for a little bit but then we come right back up and trade into that pre-market uh low resistance highs and then from there it's all about making a pattern so as you see from there it's all about this triangle pattern until we get the break lower so you know this if you wanted to trade this it would be a very risky trade but essentially you would have a sell order at this liquidity here maybe at the psychological level but you probably wouldn't be filled if you did 280 you probably would not have been filled so let's just say you actually manag to snipe this position then your stop loss is going to be about I would put it right above either this high that high between here I think this would probably be a safer one but then it's about like where can you target you know so it's like if you actually manage to catch to catch this off the first minute you're seeing like 40 points in in um positive territory so you think you're good but then you notice this pattern right and so depending on if you just hold the trade or not you can get let's see how much is this about 80 points or 100 points that's actually enough for a trade actually know everybody going to have their different strategies but I was actually talking with someone yesterday about profit targets and I think that when it comes to me 80 to 100 points on NAS is kind of a very like good Benchmark very good Benchmark to uh like take profits at um all right let me zoom out here so I want to see if we can get into here or at least maybe the one hour EMA or we're already below that okay we're already below that and so the reason I'm going to be paying most attention to Maz is because again on the daily time frame according to our relative strength analysis Nas is the most bullish Nas is the most bullish so you can you see on the daily chart it swept this low but it didn't go as low as Friday's low but D Jon's did and you see it's kind of just trading in the area that it was around Friday but for S&P were higher than that and also for the NASDAQ we higher than that so I I just want to see if you're going to get pull back into here to position ourselves for some buys and if we don't we don't but another thing I want to point out is another reason why we are bullish is because so not only did we get like from a fundamental perspective we had very good news yesterday which is the CPI data release and again the reason why that's new the good news for the market because when we see our year-over-year number for inflation coming back down into um like where we actually wanted to go like Target Target rates cuz the FED wants to get it to 2% the FED wants to get CPI to or the cons uh inflation to 2% so when we see that previous was 2.9 now came down 2.5 they're like all right that's great news but let's talk about it from a fundamental technical perspective right from a technical perspective if you're just looking at this daily chart it's easy to see this is an engulfing candle you see we closed we took out the previous candles low and we closed above the previous candle that that is the definition of an engulfing candle and whenever we have an engulfing candle that shows you big buyers are stepping into the market you know more bigger players are stepping in and we kind of just like ignored that yesterday's price action to make the this more relevant more significant price action so again it's the same thing on S&P and uh us30 uh very much an engulfing candle even for two days oh no not this one not this Monday candle but Tuesday he just took out yesterday's low Clos much higher same thing with the Dow Jones oh actually you know with the Dow Jones we actually didn't close higher than the yesterday's and so that's another reason why you know another way you know that that the Dow is not as strong as everything else and it's actually playing out we're actually seeing that play out in real time we're actually seeing the Dow go down faster than the S&P and the NASDAQ so that is essentially how um relative strength analysis works you really want to use it in to to be in line with the strongest and the weakest asset and if you have a biased you know you want to trade things within that bias so our bias is bullish for now so I want to be looking for buy positions on the Naas right but I have to wait I have to wait because I'm expecting a pullback so now here's where we can get really into the nitty-gritty right so we established that Dow jump is the weakest asset maybe this is what you can use to find a cell position off after the open so let's see how we could have done that so again it's the same similar pattern with uh S&P on the pre-market we we got the 830 news it brought us right back down into and I want you to pay attention to how there're actually wicks in this area so if we cut off if we just cut off all of this you can see how this actually just wicks in that area you see the market does not actually want to be above here very well and stay there for very long and see when it tested again see it it tested it so fast we didn't even want to stay up there right so that is another indicator that we know that all right we might be selling now so let's dive a little bit deeper if you were bearish ideally I would want to take a trade after the market open so I wouldn't trade I um right at 9:30 I'd observe this and then we didn't actually get a structure shift though see the only thing that I'm seeing is if you would take a kind of ballsy entry right here based off of this liquidity sweep because again that's one thing you can really pay attention to is where where you see Wix is where manipulation is so and this also falls in line with the fact that we want to sell above market open in bearish conditions so this satisfies that requirement and this is also a sweep of liquidity here so maybe you didn't actually identify that here maybe you wanted to maybe you observed it and paid attention to it a bit late because if you were to enter right at this point that is a very risky entry actually I lied it's not that it's not the most risky because you can put your stop up here which is not not not that bad but it's like why else would you trade why why would you go short here you know unless you're just looking at this sweep of liquidity here and you're just like all right all right let me go short put a stop up here you know that's happened very fast so the other way you can actually get into this is even if You observe that even if you observe this manipulation and You observe it bro breaking lower you can actually get in on a pullback this is around 940 you can actually get in on the pullback anywhere like on this green candle here and then you know adjust your stop however you need it to I like keeping my stop at around 50 points for um us30 but if you're going to be specific about this trade maybe You' want to put it like up here to be really safe but if you're looking at it how it's playing out you're already getting a one to3 scenario so that's how you could have traded this on the way down now it's a matter of how low are we actually going to go right so what I would do is if let's say you did take this position and let's say like you're actively in this position honestly this should be a first Target this 15minute imbalance here should be a first Target which means if we were in this we'd want to uh take our first Target here and then from there from here it'll just be about seeing how low we can go again to which let's see if we're actually going to try to do this I'm not quite sure how low we can go so this is one of those trades where You' just have to take take half or take partial and then you'd hold on to the the rest because there's a good amount of areas that we can actually sell off into like we can come back into this area this imbalance area we can come deeper into this imbalance area right here um see 4our chart yeah those are two imbalanced areas in the 1 hour that are pretty viable pretty viable you see this is why these imbalance areas can be targets as well because imbalances act as magnets so you see look at Price reacting off of it immediately so now this could be a short-term low this could be a shortterm low for but we we don't know yet the candle has to close in in about another like 12 minutes depending on how it closes if it closes with the wick in this area if it closes with the wick right here and then maybe we get another Wick a lower wick on that area that is an imbalance being filled and that is how we know that we're reversing from here but this is all about price action analysis so so we actually have to wait until we get the candle closed have to wait till we get the candle close um so let's look at the other indexes now so okay we're seeing that SMP is reacting off of its 4H hour imbalance wait what is this huge Zone here oh yes this is a weekly imbalance huge weekly imbalance right so actually the reason why I have this here this is actually very important the reason why I have this here is because depending on how this week closes it'll tell me it'll give me the hint for next week's and future price action because if we close outside of the Zone which looks like how we're going to do now if we close higher that means we're bullish because just following the context of the structure when we came down and formed this huge Wick and then we rallied for a little bit we created this imbalance towards the upside so last week's candle selling into it was just like the retest and it's just the way for you know bigger players to like get in on a pullback kind of thing it's actually interesting that we didn't actually hit 50% yet though interesting how we didn't hit 50% on this uh Fibonacci retracement I thought we would have hit it by now but essentially I want to see how this closes this week's candle closes cuz so now peep the other scenario if we actually so say we don't close above here let's say we close in the zone that is going to be like a signal that we're going to we may stay in this zone for a little bit or we may trade a little bit lower because if we this candle this last week's candle was just a pullback if it's just the pullback that means there should be even more bullishness to be had in the following week which means or which shows us that if we do get that say we get a huge push that gives us Contex for in the coming weeks for this candle this candle here and that will give us our pullback or that can be our setup candle so basically something that we can um pull back into and then use that area as a catalyst to go even higher which now I can't even draw the lines up there because we're all we're already at alltime highs so that is the analysis on that now let's go back to intraday so I had to remember what that um this huge box was for and then we have other areas within the box that we can pay attention to like this weekly or the daily institutional candle but um we have to see how much what is it willing to do so all right I know that 10:00 is usually an expi an an hour look at this Divergence this is interesting I know 10:00 usually expands prob are we going to be expanding to the downside expand to the upside I notice this is an Institutional candle here that the market is kind of reacting on on the S&P so when it comes to actually trying to find a position I don't mind if we're going to buy I don't mind also buying S&P um you know depending now it gets into like what is going to give me the best price action what's going to give me the best price action for my trade um all right I'm going to be right back I'm going to be right back is this for for e e e e all right we're back we're back we're back so um let's see what happened it's actually getting kind of chilly in here let me turn off the AC all right all right this is interesting all right this is interesting we're getting a reaction off of this imbalance here but to be honest I think we need to see like this is not enough it needs to start breaking structure to the upside so again I'll be willing to take a position on um S&P or NASDAQ when it comes to buying I don't think I want to buy Dow Jones how was gold trading yeah we we we should have held that gold man should have held it uh I guess right for a few I'll talk about my um challenge so right now I'm in another phase two challenge of a 50k demo account um the goal for this is to get I think I need two more profitable days which means I have to make 250 in a day to I have to like make that let that carry over into the next day and I have to get the balance to 52,500 which is a 8% sorry 5 % gain so if I'm able to achieve those two objectives um I'll be able to get funded I'll be funded with 50k so I technically have the profitable day like average but it's not going to carry over unless the day actually ends and I'm in profit so I probably will take another trade though before the day days over so and we we don't know the outcome of that trade so it could be anything that happens but we could have definitely held on to Gold but all right oh whoa whoa whoa that was fast hold on oh no we're we're getting removing already yeah see this is how you 10:00 is used for expansion all right here's what I'll do maybe we'll get a pullback let me prepare let me prepare us Tech we might not get a pullback though all right let's see this is exactly what I was looking for I said we needed to start breaking structure to the upside and this is that's happening that is happening um very interesting yeah so you see this is why you'd only take that first Target so let's say we did take this trade on the sell side now we'd be giving money back to the market you know that's why it's good to have multiple targets I've realized over the over the years that you really need to have just multiple targets because stuff like this can happen to you at any time like you would think that you found such a good trade on the sell side and then lo and behold 8 minutes later the Market's coming back and taking back 140 points from you you know all right let me see I want to get ready to take a position all right so if we observing sweep liquidity here v-shaped recovery can we at least hit the EMA so the imbalance I'm looking I'm looking at now is this one here can we at least get to the EMA can we at least get to the EMA and form some type of pattern here CU then let's see let's let's paint out a scenario let's say I get it the EMA at around 270 275 my stop loss put it at 35 that's 40 points but I really would want to put it like down here but that's deep that is deep no pullback man see this is where we're going to need patience this where we're going to need patience so where we're going to need patience and this is where I'll also run into various other issues in my trading in previous years because I would have everything mapped out to how I want to play it and then I you miss one little thing or like you forget one little thing and then it's over so now it's either we chase this or we just don't tra trade at all and so I think that it's best if I just don't trade at all or at least just wait until the market gives me what I'm looking for yeah wow we're really expanding now if we entered me think this let me think let me think if we entered on this volume and balance that's it that's the entry this little pull back here but if I did that my stop loss would be tight and only make it to like 30 points or something let's see gold is pulling back don't only thing maybe that can um help us out is if uh 10:30 we get a retracement but it's it's definitely expanding right now that's a little bit frustrating um all right here's what we'll do s an alert send alert if we get below this low cuz that's the EMA I was looking for that was the move to the EMA on the one minute that I was looking for it's like it's like bro if we if we just hit the EMA I would have entered I promise I promise I would have entered if we just hit the EMA all right it's okay it's okay so I really anticipated a a deeper pullback we weren't really going to go that low all right we have to see what's going to happen in a few all right let me take a look at the yens real quick or at least GJ because GJ or really the yens is something that it does fall or trade very similarly to the indexes but not quite exactly the same so if we if we look at this month this week here September 2nd on um last week basically you know we had a huge selloff and that's similar to the indexes last week we got a huge selloff and uh the reason for that from a fundamental perspective why the Yen trade very similarly the US equities is because Japan is the number one buyer of our um our treasuries and bonds so they own like we owe Japan like so much money because of the fact that they own those treasuries and so their economy is going to be based off of it's going to move based off of how our economy moves so that's essentially why their currency I'm sorry that's what I meant to say their currency is going to move similarly to how our economy moves so if we just look at the Yen itself where's it at you know so when we have outflows into when we have outflows from us equities they're going to have inflows into the Yen you see and so now going back to GJ if the Japanese yen is going up then GJ should be going down is the the pairs and correlations and [ __ ] so yeah that's why we're seeing what we're seeing here um I want to see though cuz this has been exponentially weak this month or this week so you see we got the start of of this week on Monday here and uh we've actually just been trading lower whereas equities have not so it's not exactly a one: one ratio so don't don't get what I'm trying to say confused but you can definitely use it as part of your analysis um but yeah I I I wonder I wonder why um on a fundament fundamental perspective why we're we're weaker here because I would think that we should be getting some bullishness especially with how bullish the stock market's been um especially yesterday so you know something like this tells me that we could potentially be in a reversal area though you know we have liquidity in the form of these lows and then oh my go and then we took that took that forming our fractal low here so I wonder if now we're going to start breaking breaking to the upside I'm not willing to bet on it though but I am just curious because we have another day's price action worth on Friday and is there any other news we have to worry about the European Central Bank did their press conference already so all of that was this morning so we have a lot of catalysts for Price AC action today actually have a lot of catalyst for Price action today all right what's going on see 10 o'clock 10 o'clock moves 10 o'clock is prime for expansion so it's actually interesting I remember that liquidity we we point pointed out back here the market was doing exactly that and um using that as the Catalyst to move higher so we have this short-term liquidity in the form of this trend line here along with the imbalance so we see the market came down fill that imbalance it actually didn't fill it all the way but nevertheless filled it and uh we're getting our movement now but there's a lot of so we we're just about no we did breach the highs we did take out these highs so okay I want to see how we're going to spond respond now I want to see how we're going to respond it's like are we going to leave a wick up here and then if we do leave a wick up here I'm more inclined to wait for my entry down here but if we close above it well to be honest either scenario can happen even if we close above here we can probably still get a pullback down in here but I think closing within here depending on how we close we can um most likely definitely get that pullback into this this area and I'll be able to get my fill gold is pulling back now not bad not bad and then crypto I feel like there's not much that's been um on crypto as you see they're just trading along with equities and the stock market nothing too crazy special on a crypto but actually this week if you were buying this week yeah like on Sunday it looks like it's a pretty nice position if you just held that into the week but I'm not a swing Trader every single time I try to swing trade I get clapped like I don't I don't like it um okay anything on this my Stockwatch list oh yeah I think GM had earnings this week can this turn off I think jimy had earnings this week I'm not an investor or Trader of GameStop at all but I do find it interesting to look at this stuff cuz I think what is it back in 2021 where I had it huge thing with roaring Kitty I was going to say they did it again so yeah it was back here 20 2021 yeah but they actually ran it up again so in like this year so that's very interesting very interesting to to watch and follow along with but um as far as their earnings so what was the number so they beat on actual earnings so okay interesting people expected them to be unprofitable but they were slightly profitable like at the bare minimum profitable and so Revenue though is [ __ ] so estimate was 8.95 Million they reported 798 million so it's like the the company itself is not really the business itself is not really generating revenue and profit like that so when you when you talk when you're looking at the fundamentals of it it's really not something worth investing into or trading so which is why I say you know I'm not I'm not going to touch it not going to touch it but again it is interesting to see how people are willing to gamble their life away um going back to ndaq so we're not we're not going to get a pullback to this EMA anything could still happen though realistically and it looks like we're more willing to C close above this line here okay it's the five minutes telling us oh we're getting a fractal so I think I'm going to pay most attention to this F minute chart think I'm going to pay most attention to this five minute chart so here we have a volume imbalanced showing a highly sensitive area you know there's nothing but just wicks in this area so like you see the market Wicked forming Wicks broke above it Wicked right back down into it came back up during the news filled it broke down even more and then now we finally got a huge push through this area so something tells me that if we are able to get back into here that'll be a very nice area to take Longs take buys but but we have to touch this EMA we have to touch it so I'm just going to be patient on it but I was saying it looks like a fractal could be forming in the sense that this could be our short-term highs which it could make sense too because this remember this line was liquidity on uh up here back uh during pre- London so see yeah so back during pre- London we made a high here and Market just took that but it's actually a wonder what's going to happen CU I want to buy in here that's what I need like I would just love if I could take a buy position in here you know with with the right context of course because if we get down if when and if we start trading down lower if we just go aggressively down to start printing aggressive Down Candles I don't think I would want to buy in this area you know but based of what we have right now I wouldn't mind taking a position in here but we do have to have the right context and this is the reason why I don't mind I I'm always switching through the different time frames because I want to have things aligned as best as I see fit before I uh take my position so um let's see what the other indexes are doing right now so yep we got a clean v-shaped recovery on everything see I I also wouldn't mind taking Longs on S&P as well but it looks like it's less likely because we' have to get back into this area as well we have to get um back into this area as well see we we love vshape recoveries we love V's V is my like favorite [ __ ] letter um us30 okay so this looks like it's actually bouncing off of the EMA but it's like I don't want to trade the weakest asset and we can also see it here the percent change is the most on NASDAQ rather than on us30 it actually has a negative Perc change cuz this is the the only one that's still underneath open price so you see this is also above open price above open price you know so when I'm looking for bulls and long looking for Bulls I never went bull hunting bull hunting but when I'm looking for Longs I want to get it ideally on the indexes let me be specific when I'm looking for Longs on the indexes I ideally want to get Longs Below open price you know that is just like the secret sauce like I'm I'm giving you my secret sauce you know so that is essentially what I'm waiting for but we're not getting that right now so maybe there might be some type of pullback on later on in the day I would just have to see but the market does not look like it wants to work with me right now it's like I'm I'm telling you guys if I was able to if it touched this EMA back here if it literally just like like just kissed it I I wouldn't mind taking a position and so let's see if we we got that that would have been about as of right now about 60-ish points I think I would have held it longer to be honest but you see now it's hugging the EMA oh do I want to take a risky trade I don't want to it looks clean but so there's this here's what I'm thinking about that's what I'm thinking about I can buy it now keep the stop loss tight or can wait for a pullback all right it's breaking out we're buying it I usually don't buy breakouts but today is an exception so we're going to keep stop loss tight though we going to keep stop loss around 1297 297 um I usually risk what is it 19297 I was going to say I risk about a little bit over half a percent never 1% risk though I never do 1% risk which would be 500 so I think I want to do this 297 because we were bouncing off of this EMA like we were literally hugging it see you see that's kind of what gave me this pattern here is kind of just like gave me like all right we might be able to move now so yeah I'm going to keep the stop loss tight and keep it right there and keep it tight 290 let's keep it an even number 295 just below 500 risk all right now where am I taking this to here's the problem we recently breached this previous high so now we have to go to higher time frames looks like we're pulling back now too I got caught I got caught in the Trap I was going to say it looks like we're we're expand we can expand but I got caught in the Trap wow wow wow um just like that just like [Music] that no patience man I love how I love that just the when I decide to enter after a uh a couple of a a good hour of watching price action that's when we get our freaking pullback bro oh my God oh my God that's so stressful bro this is what I was looking for all right all right let me let me re let me relax let me relax let me relax let me relax let me relax let me relax we're going to split into two positions SPL into two positions I'm going to make a stop loss about right down here 19210 [Music] 19205 we're going split two positions I hate myself for not being patient so all right let's take a step back this is the original area that we were looking for for bison how are the other index is responding yep it's doing exactly that responding to this imbalance area I want to wait for the next F minute candle I want to see if it gives us another Wick in this area and I'm going to re-enter again for the second half of the position but yeah if we um if we just expand from this area and we don't come lower we can actually see some really nice expansions to the upside we can at least see we have a 4our im balance here balance see what kind of price action we get when we get up there but also zooming in to the 1 hour chart we look left a little bit yep so we got the imbalance area and then we got liquidity liquidity area at around 500 so that's some areas that we can expect it to go to all right uh I want to wait for the next five minute yo I really I did not have to lose $400 it's okay um if I can just get another entry cuz you see how look how fast the response is like this is what we were waiting on I just find it so funny that the minute before I was literally in this trade for two minutes yo I was on this trade for two minutes I entered the market the market said give me your [ __ ] money oh man all right but it'll be okay if we expand from here it'll be okay everything it'll it'll all be worth it if we can um we can EXP man from here bro that is hilarious though I'm not even going to lie that is that's trading for you guys in a nutshell yeah that's trading in a nutshell all right uh go to wait another 20 seconds I'm going to get another points uh six slot entry but I need I need to know like I need to know that we're bouncing off this area the only way I can do that is based off price action so if we get like okay we got the fem minute candle now you see how this looks very weird if this breaks lower than this it's over we're not we're not um we're not buying from this area that's it that's the pull back this is the volume IM balance area all right we're doing it all right this is a heavy risk heavy risk but where're this is why we're going to be monitoring it I'm going to make sure my p&l is not any more than 500 or any more than negative 500 we can't we can't lose more than that in a single position that's too much okay now we can talk about some targets hopefully the market goes up there cuz we got the pullback so we get rid of all this stuff just looking at pure price action right we're just looking at pure price action this is what we want to see we have liquidity being generated to the left we have the sweep of liquidity with this huge candle down here we have the expansion that leaves behind imbalance right here and then we have our entry when it comes in and fills in the imbalance so just from a pure price action perspective we're seeing what we want to see on this 15-minute chart we're seeing what we want to see so yeah you know again just is now it's really just a matter of patience and hoping it hits our Target but um let's see let's see where our Target can be so so if we're looking at from right here so like I was saying I want to go for at least 80 points so I can take profit on the first one today is a bit of an exemption on the profit Target because um we have a lot of catalysts on news events that was released today that can give us room for more price acting so I want to go for a little bit more than just 80 points I want to see if we can actually really start breaking structure to the upside and like holding structure and [ __ ] like that so I think that getting to 400 first or at least even 420 is not a bad Target so that's essentially another 120 points from here and I wouldn't that that's not bad actually for first Target this would be right here the numbers are slightly altered on my brokerage so as you see we're at 19316 but on my brokerage are at 1927 296 so um slightly different numbers but um overall the same thing you can see the imbalances right here it's around like 19410 so I think for this one that's going to make make my first Target that 19410 that's not bad at all and then for the next one if we get lucky enough we can just go for 19500 another 100 points um which let me think I really don't even need that much for the to thing so we'll go for 450 instead trying to be greedy go for 450 so 19410 and then another 40 points after that I'd really just like to see that the market expand though so we'll watch we'll watch um PR session for another like 10 minutes or so see what goes on but um let's see gold looks like it's turning back around yeah gold looks healthy I could have pulled so much more and that would have been better too if I did that because it would be like a buffer because to be honest the main my main goal for today is just making sure I close with at least $250 profit and that's you know that's easy technically like I could just close the trade right now and we'll hit that but I also want to see if I'm right but when it comes to so if if you start seeing some like pullbacks some like significant pullbacks I'm just going to close the trade I'll have to just hold that L like I'll have to so I think that basically we shouldn't get back down into here I think I'm going to adjust my stop loss as well just so I'm not risking as much so it's 95 plus 240 see I'm I'm okay with that risk I'm okay with that risk like in the worst case if it does hit stop loss you know you know what I didn't look at today Vick all right so from uh let me start actually the daily chart CU this is really the main driver PR price action excuse me so again this is yesterday's candle that led to the big um bullishness in uh the indexes and so it looks for now it looks good like it looks like we can just hold the trade for the rest of the day and it should be expanding because we have you know we have this Wick looks like it filled in some imbalance and now we're just wanting to get more to the downside but it's all matter patience all the matter of patience what is the hourly chart saying oh my God we're we're moving lower it would be so much better if I was in this and like I didn't take that loss right before see that's what happens when you try to take trades outside of your plan don't be like me guys because now if this loses if this trade comes back and hits stop loss like that's a double loss for no reason I don't know man the is pointing down I don't know why but come on man let's let's get our expansion got a gap Gap up broke to the downside oh man we're not getting favorable price action at all wow us30 is the bullish one that is interesting they flipped it on the intraday basis they flipped the relative strength look at how clean us30 is moving and look at NAS we're still reacting off the area though but I think I find that so interesting like I've seen it happen before these things it does happen where like we identify in higher time frames NASDAQ is clearly the bull the more bullish one we've did it you can scroll back but on an intraday basis they they flipped it they made it so us30 and probably S&P so it's actually interesting or the weakest and now intraday is the strongest and then S&P is always in the middle between the weakest and the strongest but it's so it's so interesting to me so interesting regardless if we can just bounce off of this area that's enough and you see we got below the EMA on the 5 minute I believe we also got below it on the 15 minute just to fill in that balance I wish that Nas was treating with the conviction that us30 is though maybe we're getting some bullishness now but I mean as far as structure and uh price action and smart money Concepts I mean like it doesn't really get any better than this minus the minus the sell or minus the the loss that I took trying to buy it up here this is exactly what we were looking for this stuff this manipulation you see how it's Wix nothing but wicks in this area this shows where we should be entering so now it's just patience man it's just patience that's the hard part though that is the hard part gold is expanding silver is actually trading with some conviction silver is like we're out of here man see Bitcoin is not really doing [ __ ] if anything this might be an entry point for like a short-term day trade but um you know I'm not I'm not a Trader or I'm not a crypto Trader I'm a crypto investor yeah just on an intraday basis oh and also on this 4our chart it looks pretty good it looks pretty good bouncing off the EMA bouncing off the institutional candle and then combine that with bouncing off this 15 minute and balance it looks good it looks good to hold most definitely all right what is going on here and that's the that's another thing that the way that that I analyze price you know it is a theory theories can be wrong so yeah we can be wrong and that'll be up to me to determine if it's okay but I think it's okay if even if we're wrong because we adjusted our stop loss to we brought it up a little bit more so we're not risking as much so I think we're risking total like so it's 95 plus 290 it's like 380 which is in line with what I want to risk or that's like my my comfortable risk like as a Trader you have to determine that like because there are different like ways that you can maximize or minimize your risk um like if we wanted a wider stop loss or if I wanted to keep my original stop loss where it was which think is like down here we could do that but I would have to lower the lot sizes I would literally have to because if not I would be risking more than 1% and I don't not want to you don't need to risk more than 1% on a trade when you're dealing with the decent account size you really don't have to risk more than 1% um like in in no scenario should you ever have have to risk more than 1% so the the trading game is all about longevity you know so it's like even if I I believe today we found a very good trade but like even if it turns out to be wrong my risks allows me to trade another day my risk allows me to live for another day which is really all is important that's the most important thing when it comes to this trading game like you want to be in the game longer than you're not in the game you know cu the market can whip you out cuz like let let's take a look at this real time example I was in this trade for two minutes I entered at 10:33 I exited at 10:35 two minutes I lost $400 you know so we have to be we have to control our risk we have to and like that was basically almost a 1% risk that was almost a 1% loss like you know think about that put that into perspective like you have it it could be any account size it doesn't even have to be 50k what if it's was a 100K account it was a 100K account you lost basically 1% in 2 minutes that's [ __ ] crazy that's [ __ ] crazy right so yeah man now the only thing all right so it looks like we're getting some favorable price action looks like we're getting some favorable price actions so the only thing that I would need oh the next thing I need to determine is um let's make sure we're still going here but the next thing I need to determine is where my break even point is and um just based off the price action I think I want to put it in between these two positions here I think I want to put it around like maybe 260 260 270 because no matter where I put it below here it's going to be a loss on this position but I want to have it enough to cover to where it's an actual like truly a break even trade but I don't want to do it yet because we have to break structure we have to break structure to the upside to show me a willingness to trade even higher for the rest of the day and then if it does that then we can break even and then we don't have to watch the charts anymore um I guess we'll watch the 11 o'clock close watch whoa please come back up with that type that same conviction please come back up with that same conviction no way or or was this the setup for the sell for the sell off where we have a mitigation where we have the High I mean let me show you the mitigation real quick high low higher high dump pull back into some significant point of interest and then continue I really hope that is not happening no way we we have we have very nice structure right now maybe it was just a pullback to go higher please be that and this is why I didn't want to break even yet oh no all right where we're still in this we're not we're still in this easier yeah that would have made my life so much like more simple and less stressful if I just traded gold today no this is not good though this is not good let me let me maybe I need to calm down it's still the structure is still no oh man wow um wow what's going on trading vew froze was a [Music] mitigation so if it let me let me think about this from a macro perspective we're going to be selling off then wow well that's it um I think those are just my trades for the day um well that's interesting uh I think that this is interesting I don't see us trading higher anymore then from a technical perspective look at that close I don't think we're going to come back up up here I don't think we're going to come back up there wow all right it is what it is I think I'm done for the morning session it's a little upsetting not going to lie I think I'm done with the morning session I'm going to come back um for Market close I usually trade close or at least I just watch price action on close if any good trade comes in I'll take it but yeah um if I was liquidity I'm going to be upset I'm not even going to lie like if my stop loss that right here was liquidity we're just going to trade higher I'm going to be upset but I don't think that that scenario is playing out because we actually have a bullish vix we actually have a bullish fix and if the vix is willing to trade higher that's selling pressure on the indexes damn bro I don't there's no position though if anything it's probably a cell position but I'm not going to take it based off of the mitigation so again we have high low higher high break pull back to sign significant point of Interest expansion continuation and then I think from there you might just be doing that that's what makes the most sense to me at least um if it it could the market could do anything that's that's the thing but if it does just trade higher I'm going to be be a little salty just a little salty but all right guys it's 11 o'clock I think I'm going to shut it down for now um screw the market yeah all right peace out guys