[Music] Prime Time game time um we go Sunday night bears at Texans Line open Houston minus 3 and a half total 46 A2 favorite money all the way up to seven and then we saw the buyback total here trading between 45 A2 and 46 A2 guys it was a comedy of errors that led to that bears fugazi cover last week against the Titans I won't get into it it was a laundry list of things um do we think that was Fool's Gold Fez or do we downgrade the Bears on what we saw last week like how do you treat that I absolutely right I did indeed downgrade the Bears who you know this is a shocking so how will this ever happen the Bears I downgraded a point and a half how is that possible when they win and cover well I basically downgraded their quarterback a point and a half because Caleb Williams I don't think is any better than any of the other rookie quarterbacks at least not right now from what I saw so so because of that um I make this even with that adjustment though to the Bears I make this game five so I'd be very interested in betting the bears plus seven and frankly I might have to settle for like a plus six and a half even money remember Prime Time game everyone is itching to bet their you know what's off in the NFL so these Prime Time games you're going to get line moves that are irrational exuberant look at the Sunday night game last week everybody was betting over 52 not everyone but a lot of people boom heck Chris like under 51 and that easily won it never had a chance to go over the 51 and they bet that all the way up to 54 and people are like oh that sharp action betting over 53 of course not no sharp would be caught dead playing over 53 on a game that was 51 all week long and so the same thing might happen here where you're going to hear oh sharp money on Houston minus 6 and a half at post no just money just money on Houston you can fade at WR a post I just know where to go from there you know moving moving values a point and a half of one game is pretty strong and it's just just caution overreacting uh I I don't uh obviously Chicago didn't do anything to improve their their lot in the league or our perception it's it's frustrating to have a bear's under watch them play that way for season wins and they still get the wins so um a win's a win and uh um I don't expect uh they they they are about what I expected them to be and I would downgrade Caleb also the the Texans boy were they impressive uh depending on your line which Steve brings up it's a very important to line shot because you were a winner or a loser uh uh depending on what line you had on that Indianapolis Houston game and and and Indianapolis was fortunate to cover that as far as I'm concerned Houston surely looked like the better team and uh played with the maybe they didn't play with their food but the Indiana Indianapolis was able to hang around uh stoud looked amazing and I think that that's where the Euphoria of being able to back Houston uh come Monday night's going to come in and I'd be surprised if this line didn't inch up but I am thinking along the same lines as Steve is uh where I really have to look the Bears way there's uh just a little bit too much Separation on this a little bit of an overreaction um the Bears have had some early support but uh um let's see if that continues Caleb Williams 3.2 yards per attempt lowest of any rookie in the last decade eighth lowest since the merger for context Bryce young had a higher yards per attempt in his debut last year as did Desmond Ritter in 2022 you know P Manning had some really record setting or in the neighborhood of record setting horrible stats his first year so keep that in mind those are the numbers it is the eighth lowest yards per attempt of any rookie since the merger we'll see there only one direction to go from here is up right yeah and pursuant to that let me give you a bonus pick I just bet this myself bears under 9 and a half wins minus 160 that's crazy as bad as Caleb was now we're getting 9 and a half when it was 8 and a half pre flop I know you're paying a lot of Vig but it's going to win no that that that is because they were going to beat the Titans week one that was already baked into the original number I love that the price I pa I paid 9 and a half minus 160 before the Tennessee game but these numbers I agree these numbers are so huge just I know we're running late but real quickly there's four okay people want to hear this Fez you do your thing bro well let me read off here you go you won 70 and one betting four games betting both sides of games Jacksonville plus 3 and half you win Indie plus three you win Arizona plus 6 and half plus 7even you win Denver plus six and a half you win Miami minus three you push Houston minus one one and a half during the summer you won Buffalo minus five and a half it did pop up during the week winner and Seattle minus five and a half it popped up during the week all right fine if you want to grade and say those were really hard to find but the Houston minus 2 Buffalo - 6 Seattle - 6 Miami - 3 all four of those favorites you could have and you should have had pushes on if you bet the favorites yeah it I think it just speaks to getting the best of the number in the NFL I don't think it matters as much in college that's a debate for the college football show it matters a lot more in the NFL that's just my personal opinion just based off of where the numbers go I'm sure there's some college people out there that maybe can steer me in a different direction but Fez just laid it out if you got the best of the number in the NFL last week you had multiple opportunities for some juicy middles and um we'll see maybe this game will will be in that same boat right with Houston minus 3 and A2 all the way up to Chicago plus 7 I mean that's a pretty fat middle there if you can find somewhere in between all right no official plays for us in that game [Music] oh [Music]