Iowa Football 2024 Schedule Preview & Record Projection

what's going on YouTube this is sg1 sports and you're watching our college football channel time for the Iowa Hawkeyes projected record as we preview their 2024 schedule before we get to 2024 let's look back at 2023 here was the schedule from last season and you see Utah State Iowa State Western Michigan in the non-conference of course they play Iowa state every year um can't really remember Iowa playing many other big non-conference games I guess because the fact that they play Iowa State and you only have three conference games in the Big 10 uh but you look at this schedule you know they did play Penn State but they didn't play Michigan they didn't play Ohio State so it was a pretty favorable schedule and remember how close they were to beating Minnesota where would Iowa had been in the playoff conversation if their only loss had come to Penn State obviously they wouldn't have a great resume wouldn't have wins over good teams really at all um so I I don't think they really would have been in that conversation but it's crazy to think they could have been very easily 11-1 going into that Michigan game with a chance to win the Big 10 championship and finish 12-1 but again a very favorable schedule a big reason why their record was what it was let's look at this 2024 schedule now and before we go game by game let's break it down first with the non-conference they've got Illinois State Iowa State and Troy so once again Iowa State and then two easier games in the non-conference that's pretty much what they do every year you look at the home schedule those three non-conference games and then Washington Northwestern Wisconsin and Nebraska so it kind of works out to where when they get when they play Iowa State at home they get four conference games at home and then five on the road so when they play Iowa State on the road then they would get five conference games at home but yeah Washington Northwestern Wisconsin Nebraska all games that should be very competitive should be very good games um that is a that's a pretty fun home schedule when you look at it uh a lot of games that you know could probably go either way you look at the road schedule it's at Minnesota at Ohio State at Michigan State at UCLA and at Maryland really not too tough of a schedule when when you look at this uh yeah Ohio State's going to be really tough but they could possibly win the rest of these games and they don't play Penn State this year they don't play Michigan they don't play USC they don't play Oregon uh this is yeah this is a pretty favorable schedule once again for the Hawkeyes obviously no Big 10 East and West though so it's not like they just have to win the Big 10 West and it'll be much tougher for them to get to the Big 10 Championship so they'll startor with Illinois State on August 31st at home and then they play Iowa State the next week September 7th then they'll play Troy at home on the 14th follow that up with a road game at Minnesota on September 21st so that'll be their first conference game and also their first road game that could be a tricky one there of course Minnesota beat them last year and then they get their first bye so you see on the schedule here Minnesota Ohio State back-to-back Road games but there is a byee in between so they get a byee before a very tough game at Ohio State really not going to give them much of a chance in that one but then they'll play Washington at home on October the 12th then it's on the road to face Michigan State on the 19th Northwestern at home on the 26th and Wisconsin on November 2nd then they will play UCLA on the road on November 9th they get their second bye so interesting that both of their by weeks come in between Road games so in between Minnesota Ohio State in between UCLA and Maryland and plus it's nice to have the the bye after going out California uh which is I've noticed that not just in with Iowa in the Big 10 but um in the ACC with teams going out to play teams out west I've noticed that they these conferences have kind of helped them out with that travel which is a good idea but Maryland there on the 23rd and then Nebraska to close things out on November 29th that'll be on the Friday after Thanksgiving of course they play that at that time every year uh so again you look at the schedule it's favorable really when when you avoid the those teams I talked about no Oregon no USC no Penn State no Michigan so it's favorable in that way um you know you do have the backto backs with with the two back-to-back Road game uh situations there but they have a by before between those games each time so you don't have anything too tough you know you look at their their schedule it's it's going to be a bit of a gauntlet from Ohio State to UCLA a conference game every week against quality teams maybe not great teams but uh that'll be a tough stretch right there uh with no easy wins in that that U group of games there but again overall Iowa schedule sets up pretty well in 2024 here were some of the projections from 2023 and you see Iowa went 10- two in the regular season our projection had them at 8 and4 I actually picked them to go 9 and3 Aon at 8 and4 and the over under was at 7 and a half so this team definitely overachieved again I was actually closest there with my prediction I I don't know if they really overachieved in terms of was this team better than we thought they were going to be it really I think was just about the teams that they played were not very good and a lot of those teams were disappointments uh and that's a big reason why they went 10 and two we could see that again in 2024 again their schedule is not all that tough here it is and this is a scale that we use uh if it's a if it's less than 20 or over 80 those are games that are pretty much guaranteed wins or losses 20 to 29 71 to 80 games where I think the spread is going to be double digits 30 to 39 61 to 70 games where I think the spread will be about a touchdown 6 seven eight points and then your 50/50 games will stay in the white those are games where I think the spread will be less than six and games that really could go either way all right so let's start with and I do have a a tier system that I use for this formula but we'll start with the easy wins Illinois State and Troy uh really don't expect Iowa to have any trouble in these games you know obviously Illinois state is closer to to 99% whereas Troy maybe closer to 90% but they're all they're both in that that range of 80 plus per. all right so then we'll go to the games where I think they'll be favored by about a touchdown Michigan State on the road and then Northwestern at home now that Michigan State one is tricky because we really don't know how good they're going to be um it with the form that I use I could really put that game in the white or the purple but I can tell you that it would not if I put that in the white made it a 50-50 game it would not change the projection so when you get the the record here at the end of the video keep that in mind that would not have changed the projection Northwestern because it's at home um you know I I look at that now though maybe Northwestern maybe that should be a 50/50 game uh they have a lot coming back and I do I did have them Mater below Iowa and I'm going to stick with that but again at home for Iowa that's why they're favorite if that game was on the road then I think that would definitely be a 50-50 game so you could you could argue both of these games could be 50/50 games if you wanted to but maybe some of the 50-50 games you could argue they could be uh in the 61 to 70 range so that's why you it's kind of have to do these projections and and not give away predictions but simply use the formula here so you go to the games that they're going to be underdogs I think Ohio State's a game where they're a clear Underdog and I know with the yellow background that might be kind of hard to see but that is in the orange so that's 20 to 29 I think they will be double digit underdogs probably 14 point underdogs or so in that game I was going to have a good defense this year but again their offense will probably be the problem and that leaves you with Iowa State Minnesota Washington Wisconsin UCLA Maryland and Nebraska and right now I've got all these games as 50/50 games I think as we get closer to the season it'll become a little bit more clear on on some of these teams and how good they're going to be UCLA of the new coaching staff Maryland has a good bit of roster turnover Washington of course a lot of roster turnover and a new staff uh Minnesota is a team that I think could be sneaky this year with some of their roster editions and then Iowa State uh rivalry game that's always tough so I think that definitely is a 50-50 game all right so that means that the majority of this schedule seven of the 12 12 games are actually 5050 games games that could go either way and that's kind of what we had last year for Iowa and they were able to win those games able to win a lot of close games if they do it again they're going to have a really good season if they don't it's probably going to be a disappointing season but what's the projection when we average all this out well it is s and5 so a seven and5 projection for Iowa again when you have so many games that could go either way uh your projections going to be you know closer to six and six if most of the games go either way obviously the Illinois State and Troy games help them out and that pulls it up to S and5 but again a 7 and five projection for Iowa do you guys agree do you disagree give me your thoughts on the hawkey down in the comments below