Texas Football 2024 Schedule Preview & Record Projection

Intro what's going on YouTube this is sg1 sports you're watching our college football channel Texas Longhorns entered the SEC after making the college football playoff last season and they lose a lot they do lose a lot but they have reloaded in the transfer portal and this team does figure to be right there in the mix again in 2024 but will they survive the SEC that will be interesting we're going to look at the schedule and give you a very early projected record for this Longhorn team keep in mind this is not a prediction this is simply a projection based off for the formula that we used uh so before we get to this 2024 schedule let's look back at Schedule Preview 2023 so here is the schedule for Texas last year and you can see Alabama and the non-conference and then they had to run through the Big 12 um Oklahoma their only loss in the regular season but this is not a very tough schedule compared to what's coming as they move to the SEC this season so here is that 2024 schedule before we go game by game let's look at let's kind of break it down here so we'll start with the non conference they'll play Colorado State and they still have a very big non-conference game they've got a road game at Michigan UTSA and ULM this is the year though I think you want to play Michigan Jim Harbaugh is gone uh Chiron mois first year a lot of players gone especially on offense so this is the year that you want to play that game and you want to play it on the road get that out of the way and because Texas probably going to be favored honestly in that game you look at their home games they've got Colorado State UTSA Ulm Mississippi State Georgia Florida and Kentucky so four true home games in the SEC which means only three true Road games because they'll play Texas on or play Oklahoma on a neutral field we'll get to that in a second but yeah three easy pretty easy non-conference games there although Colorado State and UTSA are not pushovers at the group of five level and do we even still call it the group of five level I don't even know I guess there are still five of those conferences um but it's it's not the it's not the power five anymore I think we can say that anyways Mississippi State Georgia Florida Kentucky all at home obviously you love having Georgia at home but really Mississippi State Florida Kentucky Texas might be good enough to go on the road and win those games uh so maybe you'd want to have some bigger games at home but yes getting Georgia at home will be huge Road games will be again Michigan and the non-conference they'll play Oklahoma not a road game that's a neutral sight game in Dallas as it always has been Vanderbilt Arkansas and Texas A&M so I talked about maybe wanting to play Florida and Kentucky on the road well enough not when you get Vanderbilt and Arkansas those are the games you want to play on the road and so that works out really well for them of course Texas A&M on the road that is going to be a tough one and so in the SEC that is actually I mean really true Road games really tough true Road games Texas A&M is it that's the only I would say really tough road game for Texas and so that's a pretty pretty nice start to the SEC could have been a lot worse you could have had much tougher Road games there but that does work out pretty well all right so let's go game by game they'll start with Colorado State on August 31st week 1 then it's on the road at Michigan and week two September 7th UTSA and ULM after that so you know get all those non-conference games out of the way and then it's it's conference games the rest of the way they'll play Mississippi State at home on September the 28th so if they can go on the road and they can beat Michigan they're going to be heavy favorites in the rest of these games they've got got a really good shot of starting 5-0 then they get a bye before playing Oklahoma so a really nice start to the schedule Oklahoma of course is going to be a tough one there on October 12th in Dallas always a fun game it's really turned into one of the best rivalries in college football in terms of competitiveness I mean it's a huge rivalry anyways but it's always pretty much usually it's competitive usually some surprises in that game it's it's one of the funnest ones for sure but anyways Texas Oklahoma there on the 12th that the bad part of this schedule though is they do have Oklahoma and Georgia back to back so that is going to be tough really really not an easy you know you don't get an easy game in between a bye anything like that it's Oklahoma then Georgia I might I know Oklahoma is such a big game but I might rather have the bye after Oklahoma and before Georgia but remember you do get two by wees this year they'll play Vanderbilt next on the 26th on the road and then they'll get then they'll get their other bye before playing Florida they get Florida at home on November the 9th then they'll play Arkansas on the road November 16th Kentucky back home on the 23rd and close things out with Texas A&M on the road on the 30th so no backto back road games no backto Back Games away from home I mean if you count Oklahoma as let's just say that's a road game it it alternates Home Away Home Away Home Away Home away so that that's really nice you don't have any back-to-back Road games again don't even have to travel backtack weeks so this schedule really sets up pretty well I mean yes Georgia is going to be tough but everyone else on the schedule they've got a really I let say they'll be favored probably in every other game on the schedule Oklahoma it won't be by much Texas A&M probably won't be by much but um in Michigan who knows but this is really actually I think a pretty favorable schedule for Texas coming into year one in the SEC um overall yeah I think Texas this schedule sets up really well for them in Record Projection 2024 you can see of course an 111 record in the regular season our projection had Texas at 8 and4 that's because the the formula that we used is very conservative and Texas was not I mean they were if you go back to the preseason it was kind of a combination of things there were a lot of teams in the Big 12 that were expected to be a lot better and Texas wasn't really in that top tier going into the season there were some that thought they could get there but coming out of 2022 they weren't quite there yet so that's why that projection was so low I predicted them to go 10- two Athlon also predicted them to go 10 and two and the over under was at 9 and a half so this team overachieved and I think we all thought that Texas or knew that Texas had the talent they had the the capabilities of doing what they did last year um it's just a matter of can can they not lose those games that that they're supposed to win that that's you know they so many years they've done that you know actually picked them to beat Alabama but then lose a couple other games just because that's what Texas has done but they finally kind of got over that hump and made it all the way to the college football playoff of course had a great season so keep in mind these projections are usually pretty conservative although having said that Texas actually does pretty well in the formula but let's get into it here again this is a schedule this is a scale that we'll use if it's less than 20% over 80% those are games where I think Texas you be favored by 17 18 or more 20 to 29 71 to 80 games where I think they'll be favored by uh double digits 30 to 39 61 to 70 games where I think they'll be favored by about a touchdown 6 7even 8 n points and then the games in the white those are your 50/50 games where I think the spread will be less than a touchdown but it's not really about the spread that's just kind kind of a way to look at it uh it's really about the formula that we use and the tiers that we use and Texas if you're wondering Texas is a tier one team the only other tier one team that they'll be playing is Georgia um Oklahoma is a tier 2 team and again I can't remember all Michigan is actually a tier 2 team because of everything they lost so keep that in mind but let's start with the easier wins Colorado State UTSA ULM Mississippi State Vanderbuilt in Florida all of those games I think Texas will be favored by 17 18 or more points of course Colorado State UTSA ULM non-conference games those are you know Colorado State UTSA not bad group of five teams but Texas still should be favored by a lot Mississippi State not expected to be great Vanderbuilt is Vanderbilt and Florida you know Florida this number could maybe change maybe that game will wind up in the blue but looking at Florida right now I don't expect them to be much better or maybe any better next season so uh again the formula that we use Texas being a tier one team they would get a green games for all six of these games not guaranteed wins but you can pretty much count all six these games as wins as it stands right now next we go to the blue we got Arkansas and Kentucky so Arkansas the reason they're in the blue is just because that game is on the road if it was at home it would actually be in the green Arkansas and Florida are in the same tier and then Kentucky uh is is a step above Florida and Arkansas so that'll be an interesting game but I still I think Texas will be favored by a couple touchdowns probably especially playing at home in that game so yeah you've got eight games here that shouldn't be too much of a problem eight games where Texas should be double digit favorites and then it comes down to these other four and they're going to be tough these four games will be tough uh we'll start with Texas A&M here I think that's a game in the purple I think Texas will be favored by about a touchdown but this is really a wild card with Texas A&M we don't know how good they're going to be Mike Elco could get them turned around right away they could be a top 25 team or they could struggle and that that's the thing about about doing these projections it's so early we don't even know what the rosters are going to look like yet and so that's that's a tough one to predict but right now again coming off of last year I think Texas probably will be about a touchdown favorite in that game and then you got these other three games all that kind of fit into that 50/50 category Michigan on the road I think Texas is a tier 1 team Michigan's a tier 2 team but it is on the road that knocks that down to a 50/50 game Oklahoma neutral field um you know this one if it was if this was a true home game if it was a home game for Texas this one would actually be in the purple but because it's a neutral field it does put that one in that 50/50 range and then Georgia Georgia playing at home you know who will be favored in that game it's hard to imagine Georgia not being favored in every single game but the game as is at Texas so that one is a that one's a true 5050 game that's going to be one of the biggest games of the season in my opinion so those three games are your swing games and then you can throw Texas A&M in there as well you know if they just split those four games you're going to get a 10-2 record and that's actually what the projection is 10- two so they're enough of a favorite in the other eight games and because they're favored against Texas A&M with the formula that we use it does kind of come out to them splitting those four games and going 10 and two which is a really good projection keep in mind this is a different year different conferences different schedules their teams are playing much tougher schedules playing a lot of you know playing more games against top tier teams even though Texas did kind of come out pretty good with our schedule but still 10 and2 is probably I I haven't done every team yet but this is probably as high as it's going to get I don't see a team being projected to do you know more than than 10- two you know Georgia is a tier one team they were projected to go 9 and three so this just just kind of shows you the schedule and the possibilities Texas has a really good chance to be right there in in the top five at the end of the season because their schedule is not as bad as some of the other teams but that's the projection 10- two you agree to agree give me your thoughts your projections on Texas down in the comments below