[Music] our guy Seth Lugo in the Royals underdogs here at plus 152 framber Valdez in the Astros favored here at minus 172 total of eight with some juice to the under at minus 125 uh bdub what are we doing with this one here I was close to taking the Royals I'm not going to lie to you here I know framer's been pretty good as of late but Seth lug at plus 152 76e Royals team with that kind of price I it's hard for me not to jump on it what do you think about this one well first of all please don't lie to me you can always be truthful with me Kyle so so not gonna lie right right yeah not gonna lie yeah yeah yeah hon no no this one this is interesting because um I always you know Valdez sometimes uh doesn't score well on these base winner ratings he's my number one base winner pitcher as of August 3 at 8:27 a.m. PST so I think that's pretty notable and guys say got Aaron Getty was good the other day they're no hitter right I think that Bullpen looks tough too so watch out for the Astros I know Astros are a favorite of everybody or everybody's rooting for the Astros and they never it's it's like they never make the playoffs anyway anyway so you might as well root for them right you know because because you never see him enough uh but talking about this game got this game pric to uh Houston is 271 and I'm I'm not like like underwhelmed by Lugo he's 92 which is 8% better than an average pitcher but you're looking at who has the highest strikeout percentage on the board today and uh by hundreds it is framber ofal this last 10 median uh 36.8% strikeout percentage super Elite BBK .17 Stuff Plus is looking really good 95th percentile and then you contrast that to Lugo Stuff Plus Lugo Stuff Plus is only in the 44th percentile so we have a lot of key numbers with the um starting pitching but this is what's concerning and i' I've talked about this Royals bullpen uh that I don't think it's an elite Bullpen that's going to take him through the playoffs and I think that that's where where Kansas City misses uh of course I've missed speaking of missing with Kansas City I've missed with Kansas City most a year but you s you saw the last couple games where that Bullpen just couldn't get it done uh they took the Le yesterday 3 to two and then they they blew that one they blew the one versus Cleveland and that's you know I don't know if you I I I don't know if there's anything to this Kyle but for me that's got to just just take the life out of you because you're you're you know go oh gosh we're ahead here in the eighth inning this these guys are going you know they got the general right there MacArthur they've got this RC guy I just I I'm not sold with this Bullpen comes into the handicap going to make it the first the Astros first leg of the base winter parlay yeah and Kenny uh Larry lesnak brings up a good point House of Cards was great until Kevin space Kevin spy got railroaded he was my favorite actor him and Jason baitman are my probably my two favorite actors and Kevin spy's phenomenal and that show was phenomenal then he kind of got railroaded it turns out it was kind of BS right the stuff going on with Kevin spy wasn't so I never I've never Revisited the story so I don't know if there's like a like you saying that he it wasn't like under it was like it was like okay he made a pass at a couple guys who were like 18 you know but nothing like me like he didn't assault these yeah I hit on 19-year-old kids guys all my son what's so bad about that um those boys come over like you kids are handsome come here no you make you don't make a good point and bringing it back to bringing it back to baseball though that Trevor Bower got railroaded and he he really should be on an MLB team anyway that Trevor Bower win's a little different in my view it's not he he he was he was qu they would the initial accuser the initial accuser has not backed off her story The subsequent accusers did but the initial one did not there's some gray area there I don't want to get too much in the weeds there some gray but I I think I think he's on a team he'll be on a team next year I think you have another another year of this story fading away I I do think he's on a team next year because man he still looks he still looks really really good he's ping well it's amazing how winning games and and being really good at sports will uh will sort of erase some of the things that Aus Chapman is still you know getting ESPN highlights cuz he throws 105 miles hour I mean I love I still love a roll the chap yeah totally works on me I'm a simpleton I'm a total simpleton uh but what are we doing about Royals Astros here kidding because I gotta tell you I mean I get it and Valdez has been good the bullpen for the Astros better the lineup espe Vinnie pastino is going to be out today for the Royals but it's hard not to take him at plus 150 right I I just think the the Seth Lugo heater is officially over I mean you look back you just look at it month by month in the month of May he had a 179 ra month of June 311 month of July 478 and then month of August 576 I mean it is just going in the wrong direction here and I mean he has gotten absolutely torched in three of his last four starts if you stretch it back to to the last two months I'm looking at like three quality starts against the Angels the Cubs and the white socks like other than that any somewhat competent offense has been all over this guy and I mean the Astros offense is one of the best in baseball by far so I'm with beat up here um I didn't touch this game I thought it was a little too much a little too much juice on on the Astros but um for the first leg of the the beat of parlay I I I couldn't agree more yeah the Astros here of course making their run they're going to be back in the postseason for what the they've been in what seven straight championship series or something it's just uh every year they're the Spurs they're the Patriots they're this they're they're just there every single year and for purposes of the show the first leg of our base winner parlay here on a Friday is indeed going to be those Astros uh you price it by itself it's at - 172 [Music] [Music]