Francine approaches LA Coastline

I'm meteorologist Caroline KS with the News 5 First Alert Storm Team here with a tropical update for you here this is Hurricane Francine that we've been tracking Max winds at 90 mph still has changed very little in intensity over the past couple of hours here it has picked up a little bit of forward speed so we're looking at Northeast around 13 milph so it has started to make that curve towards the Northeast towards that Louisiana Coastline so here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center likely making landfall as either a strong category 1 hurricane or possibly a weak Category 2 hurricane either way impact's not really going to change much still targeting Southeastern coast of Louisiana for a landfall later on this afternoon now landfall has pushed back a little bit instead of early afternoon it's looking like late afternoon evening hours as far as landfall is concerned and that means that our impacts likely won't start until later this afternoon and into the evening and into the overnight hours as far as what we're looking at again not a direct hit for the News 5 neighborhood but we're close enough to be feeling some impact as far as the rest of the track goes it'll weaken very quickly as it moves on land dumping lots of rain across the deep south over the next several days so looking at the news 5 predictor here we are looking at some of those heavier rain bands likely coming later on in the afternoon we'll see some light rain this is 1:00 p.m. today and then we'll start to see the heavier rain start to come on Shore moving into the late afternoon and evening hours closer to that landfalling time so as this is 700 p.m. where we are looking at those heavier rain bands coming in this will present more of a wind threat it will present more of a heavy rain threat it will also present more of a tornado threat so we are looking at the chance for some isolated tornadoes out of some of these rain bands as well so you see this isn't going to be the exact timing of things this is not going to be exactly when we are going to see these rain bands move through in exactly these locations but it gives you a good idea of at least the start time later on this evening and into the overnight hours this is 11:30 p.m. still seeing those rain bands rotating through we'll continue with the rain threat we'll continue with the wind threat and the tornado threat during this time during the overnight hours now the good news is we are going to see drier air wrap around the system pretty early in the day on Thursday so that'll push out the rain and storms at least by around mid morning 9 10:00 because when we'll see that happen for the most part now what will linger is the wind gust and it will also continue to see rough surf over the p over the next couple of days really it always takes some time for the Gulf of Mexico Mexico to calm down in the wake of a system like this as far as our alerts go we'll start with a tropical alerts still tropical storm warnings in place for our Mississippi counties mobile and Baldwin County where we could where we're expected to see some at least tropical storm force wind gust that's over 39 mph so I want to show you one of our forecast models here and through the afternoon while the system is still offshore likely going to see gusts to around 20 25 possibly even up to 30 in some locations sustained 15 to 20 for the most part at least into the afternoon and this stays pretty consistent through around dinner time but look what happens once landfall happens we start to get those higher wind gust mixing in this yellow shading is tropical storm force wind gust so by the time we get to around 8 9:00 tonight that's when we'll really start to see the Breezy conditions work their way in windy conditions I should say this is midnight seeing gusts especially in our Western counties 40 45 milph maybe even some 50s in there at least through around 1:00 a.m. 2 a.m. and moving into early tomorrow morning as well in addition to the wind we're going to see some surge 2 to 4 feet in Mobile Bay and along the Alabama coast 1 to 2 feet in Northwest Florida 3 to 5 feet in Mississippi at this time and looking at the surf right now seeing it starting to pick up you see a couple of people just watching the waves out there some Surfers too not supposed to be in that water double red flags are flying which means the water is actually closed to the public um but we are looking at waves crashing on Orange Beach there and as far as surf alerts go we do have a high surf warning in place this is for waves around 7 to 10 fet they're starting to kick up for sure but that will happen later on this afternoon and evening we do have some Coastal flood alerts as well well we do have a coastal flood warning in place for mobile baldman counties the typical places that normally flood so we're talking about places like dolin Island we're talking about the mobile Causeway for Pickin those areas that typically flood the Northwest Florida coastline is just a step below that in a coastal flood advisory not expecting as much there but it is certainly a possibility with the winds pushing on Shore as far as rainfall goes there is a flood watch in place which means that we could see some periods of heavy rain that could cause some localized flooding in some spots 2 to 5 Ines of rain as far as flooding goes and as as far as rainfall totals goes I think most of this will be beneficial rain for us actually because we haven't seen any rain but I do think that this we could see some just areas of some flooding here in there as far as a severe weather threat like I said it the those rain bands do pose a low-end tornado threat so level two of five risk in place there and that means that some a few tornadoes are possible usually with tropical systems they're shorter lived they're usually weaker um but they are usually a part of tropical systems so just keep that in mind as far as local impacts go just to kind of sum things up for you here waves about 5 to 10 feet rough surf is going to be a big thing for us that will linger over the next few days 2 to four feet of storm surge especially along the Alabama Coastline scattered downpours 2 to 5 in of rain possible flooding a possibility to isolated severe weather coastal flooding is a possibility and those tropical storm force wind guts especially moving into the overnight hours um so that's kind of what we're expecting just be sure that you stay tuned the News 5 First Alert storm team will continue to keep you updated and also have two ways to get warnings especially overnight for now we will keep you updated and be sure to join us on WKRG for the rest of the afternoon evening overnight and into tomorrow as well